Objectives To determine the strength and nature of the association between delirium and incident dementia in a population of older adult patients without dementia at baseline.
Design Retrospective cohort study using large scale hospital administrative data.
Setting Public and private hospitals in New South Wales, Australia between July 2001 and March 2020.
Participants Data were extracted for 650 590 hospital patients aged ≥65 years. Diagnoses of dementia and delirium were identified from ICD-10 (international classification of diseases, 10th revision) codes. Patients with dementia at baseline were excluded. Delirium-no delirium pairs were identified by matching personal and clinical characteristics, and were followed for more than five years.
Main outcome measures Cox proportional hazards models and Fine-Gray hazard models were used to estimate the associations of delirium with death and incident dementia, respectively. Delirium-outcome dose-response associations were quantified, all analyses were performed in men and women separately, and sensitivity analyses were conducted.
Results The study included 55 211 matched pairs (48% men, mean age 83.4 years, standard deviation 6.5 years). Collectively, 58% (n=63 929) of patients died and 17% (n=19 117) had a newly reported dementia diagnosis during 5.25 years of follow-up. Patients with delirium had 39% higher risk of death (hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval 1.37 to 1.41) and three times higher risk of incident dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 3.00, 95% confidence interval 2.91 to 3.10) than patients without delirium. The association with dementia was stronger in men (P=0.004). Each additional episode of delirium was associated with a 20% increased risk of dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio 1.20, 95% confidence interval 1.18 to 1.23).
Conclusions The study findings suggest delirium was a strong risk factor for death and incident dementia among older adult patients. The data support a causal interpretation of the association between delirium and dementia. The clinical implications of delirium as a potentially modifiable risk factor for dementia are substantial.
The data used in this study are available to the public through application to the Centre for Health Record Linkage (see [www.cherel.org.au][1] for more information). The analysis script (R markdown file) is available for download from <https://espace.library.uq.edu.au/view/UQ:dfc4e74>
[1]: http://www.cherel.org.au
Related Keywords
Australia , Australian , Shlomo Berkovsky , Ruthe Hubbard , Chao Xiong , Emilyh Gordon , Australian Frailty Network , Partnership Centre For Health Systems Sustainability , Partnership Centre For Health System Sustainability , Centre For Health Record Linkage , Health Records , Hospital Elder Life Program , Australasian Association Of Gerontology , National Health , Health Service Research Ethics Committee , Guidelines For Research , Research Council , New South Wales , Cognitive Impact , Health Record Linkage , Patient Data Collection , New South Wales Population , State Privacy Commissioner , Information Privacy Act , Medical Research Council , Partnership Centre , Health System , Health System Sustainability , Australasian Association , Eat Walk Engage , Health Systems Sustainability , Australian Institute , Health Innovation , Open Access , Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial ,
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