Welcome to my first official Round 1 simulation of the 2021 NFL Draft! My analytics-based mock is based solely on a contextual, data-driven model that aims to do one thing: maximize each team's potential to win as many games as possible in 2021. So, before you read any further, take note:
I am NOT attempting to predict or divine what teams will ACTUALLY DO on draft day.
For this particular file, the model considered current rosters, the overall market of potential free agents and 2021 draft prospects. How, exactly? Well, here's how my mock works ...
I use my draft prospect model, explained at the top of this article, to create a numerical value for each player. These ratings can be compared across years. Then I use my NFL model, which considers the market of potential free agents at each position, to create projected win-contribution metrics by player, position group and side of the ball. These get added up to predict win totals for the season. (Here's an example of these metrics for WRs.) The results quantify strengths and weaknesses of current NFL rosters. My model also factors in as many known elements of coaching philosophies (of the current staffs) as possible, and each team's 2021 opponents. Then, my model "selects" the draft prospect that would yield the highest win total for each team in the coming season.