Next, a Political Science professor teaches a class about president ial debates and their influence on voters. We will start today by talking about candidate debates. That is my favorite thing about a campaign. I am really excited to talk about this today. I want to give you a little bit of history. President ial and Vice President ial general election debates became a highlight of the campaign season. I it is something we expect to happen. Guess its also common in high profile races. So when was the first debate . As a historical trivia question. Anybody know . Ill give you a hint. No one recognizes those people . This is a false hint. Thats Lincoln Douglas. The famous Lincoln Douglas debates and they ran against each other for president. Those debates were when they were running for the senate. In illinois in 1858 and they had numerous debates. Around the state of illinois. Kind of an odd situation. That they ran against each other u. S. State. Douglas was elected by the legislature. Two years later there on inter party ticket against each other. But the first debates in 1858 were circulate a lot. The real first president ial debate was between kennedy and nixon in 1960. Richard nixon had been Vice President for eight years. Much better known than kennedy. Who was a fairly junior u. S. Senator. Although his family was wellknown, he wasnt totally unknown but he was not as well known. Nixon had made a lot of his political career he had taken advantage of television. He was known as a fierce debater. The Television Networks decided that my television was now mainstream, everybody had one and they decided to sponsor a series of debates. Nixon was confident and willing. He was the front runner. He knew some much more and he was such a good debater. The consensus was, these debates cost nixon the election. Which was very close. It elevated kennedy immediately. Now they are on an even level. The senator and the Vice President. Also his appearance was much better. Much more handsome. More telegenic. There have been some studies on this. The people who listens to the debate, and they were very boring back then. They had very long answers. And like two hours long. They are more interesting now. Those who listen to the first debate on radio thought nixon won. Those who watched on tv thought kennedy won. The appearances were really important. After that, there were no more debates for a while. Part of it was somethinglykykydd the fairness doctrine. It says that if a station license by the federal Communications Commission gives a candidate time on the air, they have to give their opponent equal time. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson was not anxious to debate. He had a huge late he didnt really wanted to debate barry goldwater. And they relied on the fairness doctrine say theres no way to do it. You have all the minor party candidates. It is not practical. He was able to dodge it successfully. In 1968 when nixon was running again, he was not too anxious to debate. He learned his lesson. In 68 and 72, nixon was on the top of the ticket for the republicans. This kind of stopped president ial debates. It looked like 1960 was a oneoff, it would never happen again but in 1976, gerald ford was president. He took over for nixon when he resigned. He was trailing his opponent by as much as 30 points that summer. They found their way around the fairness doctrine. Which was if a thirdparty later became the commission on president ial debates, if a thirdparty held an event and the networks decided to cover it, it wasnt the networks giving the candidates the forum, they were just covering it as news. See how lawyers work . They found a way around. It we can do these debates with people we want. Without having 20 people on the stage. Four was more than willing to take the chance and to debate. Since 1976, we have had president ial and Vice President ial debates every election. Usually its three president ial and one Vice President ial debate. In 1992, town hall format was instituted from one of the debates in a kind of stuck. There used to be questions by a panel. A panel of reporters for reporters asking questions. More recently they have gone to a single moderator. The moderator asked questions encouraging a lot more interaction between candidates. At least up through the 19 eighties up to the 19 nineties candidates were usually pretty well prepared, stop answers not a lot of interaction. But there have been some times where there was quite a bit of interaction between candidates. Now most of the time, by the time of the debates, what is the polling now how many are undecided . On trump versus biden. Does anybody know . I will guess about five or 6 or undecided. There may be more than that. There may be more people who say one way or the other. But they are a little squishy. Do you have a number . 11 really. Im surprised. You have some voters up for grabs. Television needs to magnify performance and personality. Of the candidates. One observer gave this advice. He said he liked the emotional content of the debate law. How a candidate comes across will make much more of an impression than the words they said, typically. There are always exceptions. Tv coverage magnifies the stakes or triumphs. When a mistake is made, what happens on the news . Its replay constantly, constantly now 24 hour news. Constantly played. And the comments of the commentators who were talking about who did well. Who won, who lost. Who had a good night or a bad night whatever. That actually can change public opinion. So Polling Research shows that after mistakes have been replayed, the Public Perception the debates as to who won or lost can actually change. Here are some a few examples. After the first 1984 Reagan Mondale debate, slight majority of viewers thought reagan had one, about 3 . An hour after negative reviews, the lead switch to mondale by one point. Two days later, polls show that voters thought that vote mondale or won the debate by 49 . So one from reagan winning to pretty even two after a couple of days, model winning huge. The challenge for reagan in that first debate, he was, the oldest candidate. Another famous gaffe was in 1976. Between ford and carter. This was long before the fall of the iron curtain, if you remember that phrase from the cold war. Its when the soviet union had puppet states in Eastern Europe. The soviet union controlled Eastern Europe. Ford misspoke. He meant to say the people of Eastern Europe do not feel like they are dominated. They do not accept soviet domination. But clearly they were dominated. He misspoke when he declared Eastern Europe was not under soviet domination. At that point, ford had pulled up from 30 points behind to even or slightly ahead in the race. He stubbornly refused to correct this mistake or several days. Right after the debate, polls showed that he won the debate. By about 1 . After news reports carried on for several days, 62 said carter won the debate. This mistake was magnified. He didnt help himself, he could have gone right out that evening and said, what i meant was this. He could have eliminated a lot of that damage to himself. Were gonna show a couple of clips. This first one is a little recap on president ial debates that cnn did before 2012. September to september 20 6 19, 60 the first televised president ial debate. An era appearance mattered more than ever and gaffes are magnified. John kennedy facing off against richard nixon. On screen, kennedy looks cool and calm. Nixon looks uncomfortable, sweating profusely in the hot studio lights. Kennedy went on to win the election. In 1976, gerald ford makes this blunder. Domination of Eastern Europe and never will be under the present administration. Carters campaign. In 1980, reagan attacked carter. Campaigning against medicare. Reagan stayed cool. There you go again. Humor to handle attacks. I want you to know that i will not make an issue in this campaign. Im not going to exploit for political purposes what my opponents youthful inexperience. In the next election, governor with us this controversial question. Governor governor if Kitty Dukakis was raped and murdered, would you favor and a rather cobble Death Penalty for the killer . No i dont bernard. The public sees answers cold in dispassionate. And that very night is plummers. Drop you are no john kennedy. Body language plays a in part in the president ial debate of 1982. Body language makes a difference between al gore and george w. Bush. Gore size over and over again. And bush wins the debate and the election. President obama and governor romney are experience debaters. But there is one thing that history has taught us, is that the president s debate you can expect the unexpected. All right well, leave their we have one more and its not advancing now. Okay there we go. I want to show you a little bit from 2016, just to remind us how we got to where we are in this election today so this is a clip but about one of their debates. I will let it go maybe five minutes. What is your position on this issue, because in a speech you gave to Brazilian Bank in which you are paid and we learn from wikileaks, you said my dream is a hemispheric open market with open borders. That is the question. Is that your dream open borders . Well if you went on to read the rest of the sentence i was talking about energy where we trade more energy with our neighbors then we trade with the rest of the world combined. I do want us to have an electric grid, and Energy System that crosses borders. I think that will be a great benefit to us, but you are very clearly according to wikileaks, and whats important about wikileaks is that the russian government, has engaged in espionage against americans. They have had american websites and accounts, and private people in institutions and theyve hacked them, then they have given the information to wilkie links for the purpose of putting on the internet. This is coming from the highest levels of the russian government, but in an effort as 17 of our intelligence agencies have confirmed, they have influenced our election. I think the most important question of this evening chris finally, will donald trump admit and condemn that the russians are doing this, and make it clear that he will not have the help of putin in this election, and that he rejects russian espionage against americans. Which he encouraged in the past, and those are the questions we need answered, weve never had anything like this happen in any of our elections before. That was a great pivot off the fact she wants to open the borders. Hold on hold on. Hold on. This will end up getting out of control. So for the candidates, and the American People lets keep it quiet. Just to finish on the borders, she wants open borders, and people are going to pour into our country, people will come in from syria, and she wants 550 more people, than broccoli balmy and he has thousands of thousands of people there. With no idea where they come from, and we are going to stop radical islamic terrorism in this country. And she wont mention the words, and neither will president obama. I just want to tell you, she wants to open the borders now we can talk about putin, i dont know putin he said a lot of nice things about, weve got along well thats good, and if russia and the United States got along well when after isis that would be good. He has no respect for her, and he has no respect for our president and i will tell you what, we have a country with tremendous numbers of nuclear warheads, 1800 by the way. And they expanded and we didnt. 1800 nuclear warheads, and she is playing chicken. From everything i see she has no respect for this person. That is because hed rather heavy puppet as president. No puppet no puppet. Its pretty clear, that you wont admit that the questions have been engaged in Cyber Attacks against iran states of america, that you encouraged espionage against our people. That you are willing to spout the putin wine, sign up for his wish list, wake up nato and do what he wants to do and you continue to get help from him because he has a very clear favor in this race. I think that this is such an unprecedented situation. That weve never had, a Foreign Government trying to interfere in our elections. 17 intelligence agencies, civilian and military, were all concluded that these espionage attacks, the cyberattacks come from the highest levels of the kremlin, and they are designed to influence our election. I find that deeply disturbing, and you have to take a stand. I am 17 intelligence. Yeah forget it. Forget he would rather believe vladimir putin, then the military professionals who are sworn to protect us. I find that just absolutely terrible. Because putin has outsmarted her every step of the way. Excuse me putin has outsmarted her in syria. The you will get to answer the question, but i would like to ask you the Top National Security officials, do you believe that russia has been behind these attacks. Even if you dont know for sure if they are, but do you believe theres been any interference by russia. For russia or anybody else. Do you condemn them . Of course i condemn them. Paul i dont know putin,. Okay i think we have a good flavor of there, so in 2016 debate, i dont think there was any breakout moment that really led the race one way or another. Its interesting to watch this for years later, all the more information thats come out but anyone would like to make a comment on this . I promised isaac, that i would show you this clip. Hopefully your happy with that. Thats all right, now lets see if i can make this move again. Just a video, all right so, lets see lets get this out of our way. All right so, these big debates the Vice President debate debates one of the traditions is they have a spin room. This is where, you see how crowded it is, this is one of the primary debates. Each campaign will have usually surrogates, or sometimes a candidate, like in this case lined up to talk to the media and to put their take on what just happened okay czar anyway to move that box . We do something. So in a way this is become, i think sort of a joke. Because its inevitable whatever bad things happen, the campaign will try to put the best face on it, which is a good debate and they will tout that so ok. They did something similar one of the other debates, okay i dont know why not advancing now. Thats weird im going to just fix this. Okay thats weird. Sorry let me see whats going on here. We dont want to end the show. Okay here we go. So, a well prepared candidate uses the debate to present their arguments, deflect attacks, land a blow on his or her opponent. One observer of this, theres a great quote, like soldiers armed with hand grenades, candidates walk into the debate with rhetorical ammunition. And have predetermine dismay responses. The goal is staying on message, and advertising invites debaters, to discuss things that have been audience tested, and thats from a book i read while ago, i think about president ial debates. Okay well lets talk a little bit about debate strategy. The first strategy the campaigns deal with, is whether or not to debate. Or how much to debate. When the campaign approaches a question of debate, it depends on where they are positioned. If they are holding a strong lead, or an incumbent it is different than if an underdog or challenger is there so if youre in the league, your Main Objective is to avoid mistakes. You know everything is going well, you just dont want to mess it up. So avoid mistakes, and if youre the underdog you then well take the risks because what you have to lose. Youre already losing right. So maybe mix things up get your opponent to make a mistake, and thats what you want to do. So i saw this, a close and personal theres so many different stories, but i think locale uses one in 2007, when i was running for mayor of Salt Lake City. After the primary. It was me versus ralph backer. Our first debate, was at the institute of politics back in the old days, in this beautiful nil new building, and i knew that ralph was quite a bit ahead of me. Then i had about two months until the election. Ralph and i have always gotten along, we knew each other we both served in the legislature together, and he was there long after i was but we always got along fine. So i went into this debate, very dresses and making attacks on him. That continued and in every debate and even that very first one, there was an article on it, ralph was kind of like what happened to you dave . I thought you are nice guy. I thought we got along well. I thought we were friends. At one point i said to ralph, look ralph i have to do something. You are way ahead. I have to do something i cant just lay down and die. Ive got to take the fight to you, and i remember ralph being like shocked that his friend was being so aggressive. So the other thing, in the strategy of whether to debate or not. Is basically how many debates on which debates . The leading candidate, may want to minimize or limit the amount of debates, but the challenger may want to expand the number of debates. A couple of examples, that i experienced on this. In 1982, when i was working on the campaign of senator hatch, his first election campaign. He was being challenged by ted wilson over there. I guess he was the former mayor but ok yeah so i guess he was still mayor sorry, its confusing so hatch is the leader and our campaign, and this is not my idea but our Campaign Manager, was we went through all of the different request for debates and we picked out ten that we wanted to do then we Just Announced that heres the debates were doing and it was kind of rude in the way, we dont even talk to the wilson people we just said well show up and heres what were doing thats what we want to say. And it made them a little mad, but guess what they showed up to it because we had the upper hand now six years later, this is why i was confused i was working for the governor, and ted wilson was our manager. We were leading in the polls so we have the opposite strategy, we wanted to get them together to debate as much as possible, we dont care you know who the audience was, and any requests that came through we would accept it, now the she was on the other foot and wilsons campaign was a bit more like we want to be picky, we want to limit the risk of them making a mistake. But how you win your challenging the governor and the governors accepted, how do you are refused to go that worked out okay. All right to but debate prep. Campaigns will want to prepare their candidates with answers to the most likely questions. You dont want to spend your candidate into their cold. We want to spend some time rehearsing where the liberals likely questions are gonna get . Maybe especially those that are going to be negative. Things that youre opponents being attacking a candidate you want to make sure the here she can respond to those attacks. He sort of know whats coming so you want to make sure you have the right answers. With negative questions usual tactic is to pivot. You saw hillary do that. There was a question that was kind of negative to her but she was able to pivot it to a very legitimate subject. Wikileaks russian involvement. It started is out is a question against open borders and immigration. She did she did that very well she got the subject changed. And debate prep, Campaign Research is used quite a bit. Where we do use Opposition Research as a couple of ways. I know we havent really gotten into Opposition Research yet like we will in the future. He would use it to know where the tax would be coming, what the opponent is going to be saying so you can prepare your candidate. Of course on issues, you want to make sure your candidate is well informed on the major issues and has answers to the questions that are going to be coming up. Its the debate is televised, and this is really important. Your candidate is going to be exposed to more people than here she wouldve seen during the whole campaign in 30 or 60 minutes on television. So this is a huge opportunity and we want to make sure you want to maximize it. I guess the conclusion here is that debates can matter. Youve seen that through history. You need to be prepared for them and take them very seriously. Any questions on the bait strategy or what we talked about here today . Im going to pivot just slightly and move on a little bit to some other things. Just a quick question. How much of a role do you think the debates actually have any real numbers sense as far as getting people out to vote and actually changing peoples minds . Thats a good question. Whos that . Ryan okay thanks ryan. It really depends. If both candidates are pretty evenly, pretty even as far as theyre debating skills, theres no big surprises, no big mistakes, probably doesnt have much of an impact. Even in 2016 i havent seen anything that says that those debates between trump and clinton really moved anyone. They motivate their supporters to go vote . Possibly. I havent seen anything really quantifies that. I think the biggest thing, the really two big things. One is a mistake can be very damaging and we certainly seen that through history me, things that are shared their was on the clip of a cnn and Anderson Cooper some of these president ial debates in the past. That can make a difference in a negative way or positive for the other person. And the second thing that they can help a candidate like jack kennedy, or jimmy carter president forward and help solidify them. Like yeah this person could be president and sort of make people feel more comfortable with them. Does that help ryan . Yes. Thanks. It depends. But i can have an impact. A lot of times it doesnt have that much of an impact but it certainly can. Any other comments or questions . I just have a quick question. Do you find that debates are more influential in local or national . And who is this . Sophie thank sophie. I think the local is more influential a national scares me is more influential because it gets more coverage. Where is a local even if its a state, in utahs pretty rare that you hear anything about it. So people watching it may have an impact. But its not like on the president ial stage where a mistake gets amplified so much that it can sink the ship basically. But i can help. The baguette or wilson debates 1988, were bangalore was the underdog because of some difficult decisions he made as governor raising taxes, the putting them onstage together really helped, it just really helps. People can understand why he did what he did. The contrast i think was good for norm though ted was very capable and hes a very fine person. It helped our side i think ultimately. Okay any other questions on a . What were heading into debate season. Heres the 2020 debates. President ial Vice President ial debates coming up starting week tomorrow and then of course the vp debate will be right here, very close by in any case president circle. And two more president ial debates. I think debates this year have the potential to be very really, really important. Anyone want to give their opinion on that before i give mine . Sierra. I had a question. With mailin ballots going out way earlier than some of these later debates on the 15th in the 22nd, obviously theres this big push for people to turn them in immediately this year. Do you think specifically that third debate will even have much of an influence on undoes undecided voters because so many people olive turned in the mail in ballots by then . Or do you think there will still be many people havent voted . Lets walk down history lane on this. Thats when there was one election day. In some states theyre doing early voting right now. Virginia, North Carolina and some other places. Clearly the undecided voters, if they still havent decided, that it could have an impact. I think youre gonna see with the early voters, most of them 80 90 or have already decided. It could still have an impact on those later deciders the undecided. Theyre gonna be watching for some clue or q and which way they should go. I think the early voters will be people who decided. So i think it will still have an impact, but it does change the dynamic for sure. You cannot people vote early and then some big kind of mistake in one of these later debates. They cant take the vote back. They cant take it back i dont think. Its been accepted, there were no mistakes or anything they cant change their minds, its too late. At that point. Any other thoughts or comments . All right, on the state level we also have a lot of debates coming up. Ive given you the schedule for the Utah Debate Commission which is like the state counterpart for the National Commission on president ial debates. They are going to do a number of these on television. Itll be interesting, im sure theyll be others and others that are not exactly debates, but maybe forms where one candidate speaks, than any other candidate comes in and speak. Those arent as fun and exciting. Now were gonna have our own debate in her own clause. On october 7th, the same day days vp debate, were gonna host a debate between shredding rebounding and lori stricken, candidates for the Salt Lake County council. She green is the incumbent. This is really her first time on the ballot for that race. This is going to be on zoom. As an extra credit opportunity. Some of you have already seen a. So i posted it today. Let me just talk about that for a little bit. Ive given pretty strict rules on the debate but im inviting your help if you like to help suggest questions to be asked. So basically will have a 22 minutes and this is all posted on campus, maybe seen this. Ill just cover really quickly, but im some and inviting interest in that one to five questions. The ground rules are, the question seems to be needs to be the same question for both candidates. Not slanted one way or the other. Just a straightup question on an issue. For every question you submit to me that follows this rule being something that can be asked to both candidates, i will give you ten points, whether or not your question is used. Up to a maximum of 50 points for five questions. So im asking you if youre interesting and interested in learning earning extra credit, send your questions by were document by next sunday night at 11 59 refer every day in time. If i decide to use one of your questions, i will ask you to offer them. Now i know weve got some people working on at least one of these campaigns, so in that case, you can still earn extra credit, but i will not have you asked the question. Maybe i will ask the question of its a good question. Not on cap, ascended to me or were document ill go through them between next sunday and sometime before the seventh, side which ones i think will be good. If theres one of yours that id like to ask a followup with you, say how about asking this question . If i have time to go through all of them, but i thought this would be a fun way to involve the class, but also in a way, a real stickler that i want this to be totally fair to both candidates. And its funny, these days even in the president ial debate, we saw an exchange between hillary and trump, questions are much more personalized to ape can particular candidate in the used to be. Those were never debate rules that i would agree to. I was felt that the question needed to be, i feel like its more fair and its the same question opposable candidates rather than Something Like theyre gonna give me a creamer and my opponent a cream puff. Thats how i would do. Any questions on that . It will be on zoom itll make it fun that way they dont have to wear masks either. Itll be fun to be here in person. Okay, next 20 minutes were gonna start on the textbook, chapter two on political math. Some elections are very close. , decided by relatively few votes. A couple of famous examples. , we give you couple my examples first. 1988, even trailing in the polls by about 30 . Eventually he won in a three way race 48 to 38 , 11 11,000 votes at a 56,000 more. Its very close. And 1991 when i first ran for Salt Lake City mayor was a five way race. Every poll had me in third or fourth place going into primary election night. When i went to my little Victory Party with my supporters, i had notes in my pocket to give a concession speech, because i thought clearly i had lost. I ended up squeaking through in second place by point oh 3 . 102 votes. Sometimes these races are very, very close. Nationally we have a famous example of bush versus gore. Bush carried florida by 537 votes. He won the electoral,. In our last president ial election, trump won with a little bit of a bigger margin in the electoral college. ,. ,. Theres been other examples, slices delaware and alabama and surrey. Even control over the Virginia State assembly. After a tie vote. So sometimes elections, are incredibly close. Virtually every Campaign Manager, has been on both sides of this. Both the losing, and the winning side. We have some narrow elections. This convinces them, according to the authors of our book, that campaigns can totally make a difference. Whether they are won or lost, because there are so many elections that are so so close. And with just one minor change here or there, couldve made a difference in the outcome. Now this contrasts with a number of Political Science colors. Who the they actually, well the notions that it determined theyre now their notion is elections are determined more by the fundamentals. I like the electorate. Then by whatever the campaign does or does not do. Here are few examples of that. The, color and brooklyn, they said they had no evidence that pervasive contact activates a candidate supporters to turn out. And they say we presented unique evidence, that campaign persuasion is rare in elections. Were persuasion is conducted, far in advance of a general election, it appears that Campaign Contact in advertising, can influence choices. They conclude, that as a general election, they dont believe that campaigns makes much difference. But before the general election, the primary or in an election where candidates are unknown, or there they could definitely have an impact. So what do you think about that . Lets go back, so if that is true why are we here . Right. Thats all i think about it. So if campaigns make no difference we should council this class and call it good, but obviously we think that we can and it can matter and thats why were here. So any thoughts on that . Does that surprise anybody . I thought it was a little surprising. So there is this scholarly skepticism, but the Campaign Managers who were surveyed for this book, do not suggest that the campaign affects our large and, none seem to believe that they are big pulls of moderate undecided voters. And they agreed that fundamentals, greatly matter but they also revamp marginal affects up to a matter of persuasion. So given this is what were focused on, its not their 50 not in a general election usually. 56 of the voters can go either way, but its usually 5 or 10 or Something Like that that could go either way. Then the campaign is really focused on. So, here are some questions to consider. We are those who say fundamentals matter most in campaigns, they register correct . And those that say mobilization, what is most vital. Is that correct . What about those who say persuasion is the most important factor. Do campaigns matter and if they matter to the matter about mobilizing their partisan voters, or by persuading swing voters. So any thoughts on these questionss all i get a drink of . Water. I have an opinion on this, what is your name please. Its ryan. So this is my thinking, and i feel like i feel like a bad campaign, can hurt more than a Good Campaign can help. I feel like, part of Campaign Strategy is just avoiding the really bad things. Because a bad campaign can really derail a candidate, but i dont have a Good Campaign can really win in a place where they otherwise would be unable to. Thats interesting ok. I could see that. I could think it could be both but yes its an interesting point. Thank you for sharing that. Other thoughts or comments . On this controversy of two campaigns matter or not . Charlie please high, so i actually disagree with that point and i think that a Good Campaign can make a huge difference. You can also look at racist historically, and theres some races that have been in red or blue, but with a Good Campaign or good candidate, they can sway that seat. The incumbents being removed, and sometimes even in the same party. Some trying to think, in new york, that was a really long time a loss, was new yorker to jersey im not sure, i think it was a democrat. But theres been a lot of examples of races were campaigns and made a huge difference. And for the positive. So i really disagree with that point. Okay, and i think you could both be right. Im not trying to be political there, but i think that a Good Campaign can make a difference and i also think it bad campaign can make a difference. And they are probably other campaigns, where it really doesnt make much difference, because the fundamentals are so strong that there is no way to overcome it so i think its kind of all over the place. All right so the point i want to get across here is that, Many Political scientists do argue that the fundamentals, such as the economy the incumbents approval rating, composition of the district or the electorate they often sort winners or losers, so weve kind of talk about this, so lets see if somebody has something they want to say. I think they have a point but i dont think you can say it makes no difference. Okay anyone disagree with that . Okay, so ill give you a nimble number of examples. To go through each of these we dont have time to go through everything we can see the examples of where the scholars have raised concerns, and at least skepticism that campaigns make as much difference, as people in the Campaign Business might assume. Okay. So, this scholarly doubt is rooted in several assumptions. All of these fundamentals can make a difference, and no amount of Campaign Spending or brilliant strategy can change those fundamentals. And, also that scholars argue that even if campaigns have a potential to change entrenched minds, there will be differences an impact of the advertising campaign. What they are saying here is that, campaigns okay they kind of negate each other. One person runs and, add another person runs and add, and a lot of times the spending is barely even. At least maybe even enough to what makes a difference that they are just skeptical that this really doesnt make much of a difference. So Campaign Managers point out that much of the Scholarly Research that is done on president ial campaign, where the fundamentals are like which mattered the most. And campaigns are likely to matter the least. So if they are saying, and maybe its more true for president ial campaigns, than most of the campaigns in america. So we know that there are thousands of non president ial campaigns and elections, whether for congress, legislator governor county elected officials and so forth. So one Campaign Manager stated, that maybe the notion that the campaigns have little effect, has some validity on the president ial level, but on the state and local levels, i think campaigns make all the difference. So down ballot races, are more susceptible to campaign effects, then high profile races. Because the quality of the campaigns, have a wider range, at the lower level. I think its not always eve the Playing Field when you get down to the smaller races. So, theres a couple of arguments to talk about that. But basically as you go down, you know its less true but president ial it may be somewhat true. So lets just sort, what do you think about this idea that scholarly skepticism, versus the counter arguments that campaigns can make a difference . If you had to make a choice, which side would you be on . Or somewhere in the middle . We yes. And maybe works less partisan, you know that could have a bigger impact . Okay thank you. Right. Whats your name . Abby. Abby okay great thank you. Okay other thoughts on this . I guess my main point would be, we are here for a reason, campaigns can make a difference, but its good to temper that, because one thing that is also i think very true, is that those who are campaign consultants, maybe professional Campaign Managers, they may overstate what good they can do for a candidate. Right they may oversell, like we could take anybody and make them president. No you cant. But theres a lot of other facts, and certainly the fundamentals the partisanship, the nature of the electorate, where you line up on a partisan basis. Whats going on in the economy, and theres a lot of other things going on. That and those also loose things also matter. But many elections are decided on the margin. Many elections are won by less than 10 even less than 5 of the vote. Thats four campaigns, can really make a difference. So okay thanks everybody will see you one with the other on wednesday. Get ready for all these debates coming up. Oh my goodness its my favorite time of the decade. Vision, charisma, pragmatism, credibility, luck, and speaking ability. Welcome everyone to our second class. This is for the people who were here for the first time tonight. Better known as a political circus of the 21st century. Were gonna be talking about two different and yet related topics