Changed since 2016, whats motivating voters this year and look at trends that could give us clues on how people might vote in each state in november. Today, we turn our attention to the keystone state of pennsylvania, and Franklin MarshallCollege Professor joins us from harrisburg, this morning. So, lets just begin with what happened in pennsylvania in 2016. Well, in 2016, thencandidate donald j. Trump carried the state of pennsylvania by 44,000 votes. And essentially he won the state because of the turnout and the high proportion of votes that he got in central pennsylvania and also in the south western part of our state in the old mining and mill towns. I call it small town in rural pennsylvania and up in the North Eastern part of our state, largely because he developed what has generally been referred to as the rust belt strategy, where he campaigned in parts of pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin and michigan, making the argument that the Obama Administration had done bad trade deals. Nafta, the transpacific partnership, and he would bring back these Old Industries like coal and steel, and lets add Something Else, natural gas, which is very, very significant in terms of the employment and the money it raises for the state. And that continues to be, you know, an important aspect of the pennsylvania election this year, which we can certainly talk about. Now, he just didnt win these old mining and mill towns by 5 or 10 or 15 points. He won them by 19, 20 points and in a couple of the counties, he won them by, you know, 19, 20, lets go up to almost 30 . And these are basically White Working Class voters that literally helped trump get to the 44,000vote edge in the commonwealth of pennsylvania. How is the race shaping up today between the president and former Vice President joe biden . Yeah, well, its shaping up to be pretty close. The real clear politics average is about 3. 9 3. 9 lead for joe biden. It was a couple points higher weeks ago. And if you take all of the battleground the six battleground states that we watched, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin, florida, arizona and north carolina, as we speak right now, President Trump is trailing in every single one of them. Now, in florida, for example, bidens lead is less than 2 . In north carolina, its less than 1 . And donald trump won those battleground states, won every oneless than 1 . Donald trump won those battleground states, when every one of the six, every one of the six, in 2016. The margins right now range from in wisconsin, about 6 points. In our is owner for biden, 5 points. And pennsylvania, about 3. 9 percentage point lead. Trump has to really do something in those battleground states if he wants to win reelection. The polls showed him trailing though in 2016 as well. And he was able to get a victory within that margin of error. That is correct, there isnt any doubt about it. In some of the battleground states, including the afn and pull, thats the first time in our long history that we were not on target so to speak. The fundamental problem is if you are not in pennsylvania, in the last ten days of the election, a significant number of voters made up their mind or change their mind. Made up their mind or change their mind in the last ten days of the election. We werent doing interviewing in the last ten days, thats a significant explanation. Theres Something Else that went on in some of the states as well. The fact of the matter is, then, trump voters were reluctant to admit, to talk about the fact that they were supporting President Trump. Im sure you have interviewed people who fell into that category. Terry madonna you said that pennsylvania has always played an important war role in president ial elections. You said this year the state is the center of the universe. Why is it playing a bigger role . I will quote nate silvers 5 38, hed been referring to the site has been referred to pennsylvania as a tipping point. What does that mean . It means whichever candidate wins the 20 electoral votes of the state, that will put them up to the magic 270 electoral votes. Thats what it pretty well means. I will tell you something, you cant believe how the state has been inundated by the candidates. By one count, their candidates and their surrogates have been in this state 40 times. President trump was just out in the southwestern part of our state yesterday, hes traveling into the east. Later on this week. The fact of the matter is, these candidates are all over pennsylvania. Joe bidens headquarters is not in wilmington delaware where he lives, but in philadelphia, pennsylvania. It indicates its significance. If we take a look at the number of visits and the intention that the candidates are paying to the state. And their surrogates, donald trump jr. Was in the state capital a week ago. Hes scheduled to go to erie, Kamala Harris was in this state just recently. The fact of the matter is, i joke and say i think if they stay here any longer we can give them the right to vote in the state. Were talking to Terry Madonna about the battleground state of pennsylvania. We want to get your thoughts on that this morning. We are dividing the lines by the candidates that you support. So if you are supporting the biden harris ticket, dylan. If youre supporting the trump pence ticket, if youre undecided, or supporting another candidate and pennsylvania residents, we want to hear from you. Our first call comes from stephanie in huntington, west virginia. Supporting joe biden, good morning to you. I want to say i believe in term limits, we need to have term limits on all the positions such as the congress and senators. No one should be able to serve over 12 years in congress or senate. Also, speaking of president , we need someone with integrity. Out of the hearts the mouth speaks. If we have a president that spoke so Much Negative he can divide this country right now. President trump. And so in his heart he doesnt have love or justice for all, only for a few people. He thinks hes almost put himself ive done this ive done that. Its not about i it should be we the people. I think we need someone who will bring us back closer together and biden will bring us back closer together as of people that love one another. In compassion, in empathy for one another. With the Supreme Court, i believe the Supreme Court should be a representation of all people, not just caucasian people, but all people. Asians, we are a melting pot of a country, and we need people representing all people. If we to come together, and reason together, sit down and talk and recent together. Instead of just democrats and republicans, we need people that love one another. Okay stephanie heard your point. Wondering how they play in pennsylvania, the vacancy on the Supreme Court, and the president s character. Lets talk about the fact of the matter is, theres a big debate going on about whether the debate over President Trump moving with a nominee for the Supreme Court, which he has indicated he will give us a name on saturday. The fact of the matter is, i think its going to have a reassuring of effect on the campaign whats happening. I think its going to help motivate, stimulate, and create more excitement in the base of both parties. In the bait base of both parties. Both parties are going to use the issue, to try and galvanize their base. Their supporters, its unclear yet whether its going to move undecided voters one way or the other. They are relatively few were undecided voters this year than in the past. Somewhere 13 , 14 , 15 . I think its going to help create enthusiasm and excitement. And then theres some who think that its going to have no real effect, in a sense. In other words, one party will not be advantaged over it. Although some democrats argue, a few points of pro life candidates to the Supreme Court. That will cause some moderate republicans to move away from President Trump, were just going to have to wait and see. More enthusiasm, more insight excitement in the base for both parties. What about the president s character . Thats obviously an issue, thats going to continue to play out. The way i view this, its not only, its not the debate that democrats have with the president over policies. Its also the president s style and personality. Which is very unique in this age of social media, what he puts on twitter and how he conducts himself, and the public scrutiny of it is remarkably intense. Remember that in total modern history, candidates of the history didnt campaign themselves, it was considered unseemly to do that. If you go back to american history, and you look at the personalities of the other 44 president s, its hard to find someone with the kind of unique personality and style that the president has. I think a fair amount of the opposition comes from the way the president conducts himself. Not just on the issues that democrats and republicans disagree on. In mayville, michigan, youre undecided dina, why is that . I voted for trump for the last election, and i thought he would really do us a lot of good. I was really kind of hoping that everything would start going better. But the last year and a half or so, no. I have to work two jobs in order to make ends meet. Even though the jobs are there, there are not paying anybody in order to support themselves. So you have to work to, or even have three, because you have a spouse. In order to make it, in order to pay your taxes and do what you have to do. I watched his speech last night in pennsylvania, that really did it for me last night. I dont understand why somebody, thats supposed to represent our country, would stand on the podium and start downing some other woman thats on the Supreme Court, thats not maybe born here. And say that she is not american. I think he needs to look into his own house, his wife was not even born here. But yet he says things about other people, he needs to look at his own backyard. Im not going to vote for him this year. I changed my mind as of last night. That was horrible last night, and im tired of him Walking Around this country, saying that theres no virus, when theres over 200,000 people dead. He needs to take responsibility for something. China might have started it, but he should be finishing it. And hes not. Terry madonna. Again, there is this personality and style factor and the way he approaches issues, that is very controversial. The individual just pointed out, theres absolutely no doubt about that. And thats at the heart of it. Its important to note that his firm supporters like that style. Obviously from an undecided voter its its a parent that thats turned her off that continues to be the case. Covid 19 for the longest period of time was the single most important problem that the president had early on just after it broke it came to our country. The president s Job Performance on handling coronavirus was about a 50 positive. Right now, the last time i looked, in real clear politics, it was about 41 positive. And thats incredibly important, the guest talked about the economy. Believe it or not, donald j trumps strongest suit, again on the real clear politics average, hes up 50 positive on the economy. And he continues to stress that in speech after speech, where he gets up and talks about the economy before covid19. He talks about the recovery thats taking place right now. And he argues for example, in the Third Quarter there will even be fewer people unemployed, fewer people on unemployment compensation. And that gdp growth will go up. Hes going to continue to stress the economy, the economy, the economy. Again, were going to have to find out to other things that emerged in the last couple of weeks. How relevant they are. One, is the civil unrest, and thats obviously important. And trump has been criticizing democratic mayors and governors, who argues are not doing enough to put down the burning, and the looting, and the violence that is taking place. The democrats are certainly concerned about that. At the Democratic Convention they did not mention the civil unrest, joe biden didnt and his acceptance speech. Ten days ago, he was in my state, and he made it a point to condemn the violence, the writing, the burning, and looting. By the way, when he was out there in the same speech he repeated several times, i do not want to ban fracking. I do not want to ben franken. That has great appeal, to the base of donald j trump, in the old mining and middle towns in pennsylvania, and some of the other battleground states. Terry madonna michigan, pennsylvania, and wisconsin decided the 2016 election. Well have to wait on them in 2020. Do you agree and why . I dont think as i indicated before, we have these six battleground states, what were talking about with states that politico mentioned, there rust belt states that trump won. We could throw florida in their, remember florida has 29 electoral votes. Pennsylvania house 20. Thats 49 electoral votes, of the six, those two states have by far the largest number of electoral votes. I dont necessarily disagree with that, i think if the president loses two or three of the battleground states, i dont know how he can get the 270. Its going to be virtually impossible for him to do that. Politico argues, huge surges in mailin voting will change how and when voters are counted in 2020. In these three states, we may not know the winner on election night. Thats a great point, theres a big controversy over mailin ballots, as i think all of your viewers know, the president has referred to it as fraud, fraud, fraud, fraud. And make the point that republicans should vote in person, by the way in the polls that i have seen, more republicans say they will vote in person than democrats. There isnt any gap in that mailin voting benefits the democrats more than the republicans. Lets take a look at the point you just made about when we are going to have the results. And pennsylvania, and pennsylvania, if a ballot is post marked by november 3rd, currently, and this is under challenge. Three days, the ballots can be counted three days after november 3rd, up until friday of election week. You are exactly right about this, we may not know who won the president ial election. Some say days, some say weeks, some say months. There isnt any doubt that on november 3rd were not going to know who won the president ial election, theres a big debate as i indicated a moment ago, over when these ballots will be certified. And pennsylvania, on june 2nd primary, june 2nd primary. 1. 5 million pennsylvanians, cast mailin, or absentee ballots. 1. 5 million, that was almost half of the total turnout in the state of pennsylvania. Most of us believe that that will double, double, by november 3rd. Election officials in this state are hiring personnel, many of them would like to open the ballots and sort them, and even run them through the scanners before november 3rd. So that we dont have this long wait, so that we can expect, again and pennsylvania the elections on june 2nd, the primary. Were not fully certified for two weeks, for two weeks. Who knows whats likely to happen, many folks thinks it could be sometime before we have the results in a number of these states. We go to gary in young would, pennsylvania. Good morning thank you cspan. Im in southwestern pennsylvania, and i am surrounded by pretty much democrats, and the older White Catholic democrats. Voting this way for a very long time. Its going to be interesting to see how the Supreme Court nomination goes through the same process as kavanaugh. To how its going to upset a lot of these longtime democrat voters. When the trump and hillary signs were up it was about, citing for hillary. From what im seeing now its about seven to three for trump over biden. Its going to be interesting, its getting ugly. Its grading rival really. When you look at some of these energy jobs in the energy sector, even some of the African Americans will make up 15 of pittsburghs, which is like 90 democrat turnout. If you look around this area, 8 to 10 of the population with the democrats, the democrats 85 voting wise. Its going to be our these long term democrats going to vote against their financial interest. Thank you. Terry madonna. He makes a good point, if you go out into the southwest in these working class families as i indicated before, they overwhelmingly supported trump. Heres whats fascinating about it, we go out there and we take a look at beaver, green, washington, came brie, fiat. The counties that one for trump, all again, obviously pittsburgh and its suburbs went for hillary. The fact of the matter is, every single one of those counties, in 2016. Had a democratic Voter Registration edge over the reba publicans. I will let that sink in, every single one of bin, and trump carried those counties again. Not by 5 by 19, 20, over 30 in some cases. Because of the rust belt argument that i mentioned earlier. That trump would being bring back coal, steel, and the Old Industries. Getting rid of the bad trade deals, etc. The fact of the matter is, thats critical in 2020 for trump to win the election. Basically, the working class voters began to move away from the democrats for a variety of reasons, those voters out there can be cultural conservatives on issues like abortion, gay marriage, and gay rights. Whereas the Democratic Base in the cities, and in the suburbs, ten to be cultural liberals. Also many urban suburban democrats, want gun control. The voters out in the region we are talking about do not touch the second amendment. And then the climate change, a big issue for a lot of democrats in urban and suburban america. What do we know, half the south west, what about fracking. The deep wells in which natural gas is extracted from. You do have some huge differences between rural, and democrats, and urban and suburban democrats on the other. You are next. Good morning. Hello, hi. Im voting for biden and harris, i have been a supporter of biden for many years, i have been following. I am just so hurt and said in my heart about whats happening in this country. All the deaths, people are dying, and then this matt, this president gets and talks to woodward in the book, and that he lied to everybody. He called it, a hoax, a hoax. He just went on and on and on, he could have done something. And all the lies hes told, and people just follow him, i dont understand it. But im hoping for a victory, trump lost me many when he first started, when he got on National Television what he would like to do with his fingers with the ladies. If that had been barack obama saying Something Like that, coming into the white house with prostitutes. What would have happened . But these people follow him so blindly, its really sad. And he does a good job of saying that the news is fake news. Im excited about biden and harris, and i hope they win, i think they will. You never know. For you and others, were going to be talking with bob woodward with his book, right here on his book. 8 15 am to nine. He makes the point that a lot of biden supporters make, you notice he talked about covid19, and its significance. There isnt any doubt about it, at the beginning of the outbreak, President Trump did dismiss it. He wasnt crazy about masks, he made it clear that it wasnt a serious problem. A couple of weeks ago he reversed himself his advisers got to him and said this is really hurting you politically. So what did trump do, he said wear a mask, its going to get worse before it gets better. And he restarted the Task Force Briefings on covid19, that he attended a couple of weeks before. I think the president s campaign now realizes how significant covid19 is, and weve heard this from a number of guests this morning. Who made a point of it, in a number of points that were made about why they are supporting Vice President biden. I might also point out, and pennsylvania, bidens a senator for 36 years from neighboring delaware. Biden spent many many days campaigning and pennsylvania during his senate career. And even as Vice President for democratic candidates, and he visited the state quite frequently. Doing seminars, speeches, and because delaware has one small commercial television station, his senate career. By philadelphia radio, television which not just restrict for philadelphia, but the suburbs in my state as well. That also is a benefit to biden as i indicated before. He also has his headquarters here. Where on election night, where will you be watching across the state . For turnout to make a difference. Were going to look at the suburbs, the democrats really hammered the republicans in 2018. They won 41 seats in the house of representatives, for a net of 40. Thats why nancy pelosi, speaker of the house, and it was largely because of what occurred in the suburbs in a lot of states. In my state for example, the democrats won three of the four congressional seats in the philadelphia suburbs. The fourth, the fifth, and the sixth congressional districts. Montgomery three of the four, they want another seat, just north of the suburbs. Before 2018, there were 13 republicans and five democrats in the congressional delegation, the 18 congressional delegation. As we chat right now, its nine nine. One of the big reasons why the democrats have been making inroads into the suburbs, is because of College Educated women and millennials. To problems the republicans have, if the democrats have a problem with working class voters, republicans have a problem in the suburbs. When you take the suburbs and the cities across the country thank you very much thank you. Today johnson and johnson announced that their vaccine candidate has reached the