Election 1976, a look towards the conventions. Your host is political analyst richards gammon. Richard this is Richard Scammon. With me here in our studios in washington, stephen hess of the brookings institution. This morning we are going to try and talk with you about the end of the primary season. The beginning of the preconvention caucus and maneuver and discussion and trying to get together various factions of the groups each to produce a candidate for Vice President in the fall. Backpose, when one looks at the primary season that began in february, closed on june 8 in california. As one looks back. There are two things that stand out. Jimmy carter, and the closeness of the Republican Campaign for the nomination. Steve, how would you evaluate this phenomenon. Heres governor of a middle sized state in the south and pretty well a sword of nomination as the first southerner since the civil war. How did he do it . Stephen it is a phenomenon, an incredible performance for who is that unknown nationally, who had only been governor for one term of a little sized southern state. Of course you might say one lesson we have learned from mr. Carter as well as mr. Reagan, it helps if you are running for president to be unemployed, to have that as your fulltime job and not be encumbered by other duties. So he ran with Tremendous Energy in all of the primaries. Richard i emphasize that too. A governor has to run that to the state to look after local problems. A senator has to run back to washington because if he doesnt his constituents will say he is spending all of their tax money running for office instead of minding their business. His business. Carter, once he left office as governor, could simply concentrate his tremendous stamina. I must say that in addition to your point about being unemployed, one thing that impresses me more over the years is running for president is also just a terribly tiring thing. You have to do an awful lot of hard work. Carter seemed to have both the time and energy. I am certain these were important. Stephen perhaps it is not as much of a disadvantage as we once thought it was not to be terribly wellknown. Our media, television, newspapers, can so quickly make a person into a celebrity. This news industry has to be fueled by a tremendous number of new faces so they could quickly make it. He started with a certain mystery that i think was attractive to News Reporters and to the American People. What was he all about . They asked. Richard in a sense of speaking, at the end of the campaign, it was almost as though governor of california had this new ministry. Mystery. Carter was already old hat. He began to lose a little momentum as other people came along. Church, for example. Stephen he originally ran two campaigns against a group of candidates in midjanuary. People like milton shaft and Sergeant Trevor and then another group, they dropped out were replaced in a relay by jerry brown, mike church, others like that. Richard yes, because the people who started against him in february and march, whom we were discussing in new hampshire, illinois, other states left us long since. Now carter was unemployed, and if he had the stamina, one of the great things working for him was that he was a centrist. He was not identified as being one of the govern left or wallace right. Both of these seem to have diminished in the years since 1972. Stephen yes, yes. The Democratic Party was a uniquely nonideological campaign. The party will go into the general election with a much greater quotient of unity. You dont feel the death wish that so has divided the party during the years of vietnam. Richard i have a feeling that in much of this, the very fact that the war is over means the cement that held together the new left, new Politics Group is gone. Other solutions are being found that wallace emphasized. Solutions are being found to the social problems that wallace emphasized. Because you are quite right that even now, your effort, the platform, the rules, the credentials and nomination, the effort to achieve unity in the senate is impressive. Stephen carter virtually offered the American People absolution. He was saying vietnam, watergate, you didnt do that. Your politicians did. You are good even if your politicians were not good. So elect me, and i will give you what you deserve to have in your politicians. We could breathe a sigh of relief. Richard all right, lets use that to move over to the republican side, governor reagan is representing that same nonwashington or antiwashington absolutionist attitude. Why is it so close . Stephen we are finding incumbency is a two edged sword. We always thought it was a great advantage to be president. There are advantages and disadvantages. We have that. And then of course, gerry ford, who was a president by accident, who had never run for the presidency, we have a man who never campaigned nationwide before. His largest constituency was grand rapids, michigan. They started, although one was the president , much more equal than is usually the case with an incumbent and a challenger. Richard yes, and then i suppose one would have to say too, as far as the republicans are concerned, in a sense youre going back of eisenhower and the ideological conflict of eisenhower and taft of 1952. But without the moderate group led by general eisenhower. In fact you might all the way back to 1912 and the split of the party, because we really have in the Republican Party as in the democratic, ideological differences that are often times under the surface but are still very real. And as of now we are looking at a contest which is really just very, very close. Stephen one other factor we cant overlook is Ronald Reagan spent his life as an actor and has been an effective campaigner and platform orator. When you put the two of them on when you remove the question on presidency and you put the two of them on equal footing and on common platforms, one is a far more dynamic campaigner. Richard and as you looked at these primaries, 30 primaries, more than we have ever held before, the majority of delegates chose the primaries. Would you agree with me that this has at least turned out to be a pretty representative set of elections in terms of the rank and file opinion of republicans and democrats . Stephen i think while the votes have been small, it will come out about where we sense the party is. This will apply to the platform as well as to the statements of the candidates are making at this time. I guess we would have to conclude up to now, the system does work. The system to choose a representative leader for large umbrella organizations, they are each finding their center. It is as if there is an inner gyroscope looking for the middle. Richard tell me, did you have the feeling that the changing in the finance law had rather less impact on these primaries than we would have thought . Stephen yes. I think we will find when we total up the bills at the end of the year, the new law kept some money out of the system. The total will be somewhat less. There wont be the great contributors as there have been in some periods of the past, so more equalized contributions, but in terms of outcome, in terms of would this campaign have been any different, would somebody else had emerged . I dont think that is true. It is much more likely the Democratic Party, the rules changes, they have made a difference. Richard numeral you mean the introduction of proportional is him . For example in 1972, mcgovern got every delegate in california because he won statewide. In 1976 these delegates were distributed in california and in many other states on a proportional basis. The interesting thing is though, that even with the proportional base in the Democratic Party, we still have a dramatic move forward of one candidate in his final victory. Stephen as i think you have said on other occasions, doesnt jimmy carter mean something in terms of reestablishing what we used to call the new deal . The rooseveltian coalition, the parts of that talking of that talking about blowing apart like an atom . Carter is certainly a representative of the south. And bringing the south back into the national Democratic Party. Richard i think this is true. I think too, when we move on to november as we will discuss later in the program, we may very well find carter succeeded in putting together at least major elements of the roosevelt coalition. Perhaps not as strong in the south as under roosevelt perhaps, perhaps stronger in the upper midwest and in the northeastern state. Nothing of course repeats itself exactly, but i think this is true. I think he has been able, as we pointed out on several occasions to get both the black voter and the wallacite voter to support him. From a political point of view is almost hysterical. I would think too, as you look at the republican side, you dont get the same sense of centrism even though in a sense, the president is a centrist himself. Because the socalled liberal wing in the Republican Party really is not strong enough. What you really have is a fight between the center and the right as opposed, with the democrats, a left and right. Stephen to some degree in the Republican Party, we see a tired party. It has been in office for eight years. We have been through watergate and so forth. Some of that just loss of momentum is coming out, while the democrats, the Party Activists are sensing victory this year. You feel the momentum shifting. I think. Richard i think this is true. I think you could see it in the primaries, you can see it in the voters, you can see it in the delegation. Youll probably see it at the conventions when they meet. It is interesting you know, at the beginning of the year before these primaries start, we estimated we would have a very, very tough fight in the Democratic Party. And that the Republican Party would be almost a foregone conclusion, a rather quiet coronation of president ford, but it certainly has not worked out that way. Stephen it has been a bad year for us political commentators. That is for sure. Think of the things we said at the beginning of the year. Richard some things were right, we mustnt admit defeat. [laughter] lets look at some of the people, the men and women, who are going to be delegates at these conventions in new york, kansas city this summer. Lets talk to some of them and see what their view is of their role, why they became involved in politics, what their sense of commitment is about the conventions in which they are going to represent not only themselves and their party, but their Party Friends and Party Colleagues and Party Loyalists in various districts and states back home. Delegates to the democratic and Republican Conventions are elected in each individual state in a variety of ways as shown here in the Virginia Republican convention. Some hold meetings to elect delegates to the National Conventions. Delegates who are elected to the National Convention in this matter usually are pledged to a particular candidate and hope to be elected on that basis. We asked several virginia delegates in norfolk and maryland and district of columbia delegates in our studios why they wanted to be National Delegates and what they hoped to contribute to their respective conventions. I believe the criteria for election should be based solely upon ones perseverance and dedication to the Republican Party. My sense of commitment to a candidate is a very sincere one once i have established in my own mind that the candidate is really qualified, that the candidate is well aware of the position in his own mind on the issues. Once i have established that in my own mind, i will give the effort everything that i can. Been an overall part of my political career and citizen of virginia to help the political process for state offices or National Offices as well. I am not one of those people who accepts any structure in or instruction or irrevocable commitments. Because if you count on the delegates judgment to do what he thinks is best for the country at the time the vote is cast, he abides by something called an artificial commitment. I believe every citizen should do everything they can to participate in government because the people, it is supposed to be the government by the people. Unless the people take part, the concept is not carried out. Over the past 10 years, i have been actively engaged in local politics. I have run for local office, and it seems to me any politician who really wants to become involved, wants to become involved in the election of president. And one gets the opportunity to do that by becoming a Convention Delegate. I ran for delegate to the republican National Convention because i believe the democratic process is to work. The people or citizens must participate in all phases of the political process. I wanted to share in the decisionmaking process of the Democratic National party having had considerable experience as a local Party Activists. Activist. I ran for Convention Delegate for two reasons. One, i wanted to participate in the democratic National Convention. The second reason, i wanted to support my candidate for president. Im committed to the Republican Party and to the twoparty system. Our party believes in the independence of the individual and the right of each man to control his own destiny. I firmly believe that the future of this country and the world rests with the new dynamic leadership of the Democratic Party which has furnished throughout the history of the united states. I think that every citizen has the obligation to be involved in the affairs of their community. One of the most important things in america is the selection of our president ial candidate and the election itself. Therefore i chose to become involved in the political process. Richard we have seen in these interviews with delegates going from kansas city to new york the kansas city, and new york, the sort of person going to those conventions and how they view this function. What about the conventions themselves . Obviously the major task of the conventions is to choose a candidate for president. Theres a lot of things they do as well. Steve, what would you think is the most important function . Other than the 90 function of choosing a candidate. Stephen they also of course have to choose a running mate, the Vice President ial candidate. All of the balances involved in that, choosing a candidate from the south, this one from the north, choosing a candidate who has ties with white voters, the labors and ties with management. Choosing a protestant if this is catholic. This is important in the election equation in the general election. Richard let me interrupt. I have to say, when we say choose, do you remember any case where the convention refused to endorse the recommended choice recommended by the candidate for president . Stephen i can only remember the second stephenson nomination. Richard they threw it open. Stephen that is important. When we say choose, the chooser is the nominee. Richard the constituency of one. Stephen that is right. Beyond that, the convention drafts a platform, sets the principal. It handles housekeeping chores, it elects its National Committee and all of the other machinery that keeps party going between elections. Conventions. It has to deal with the internal housekeeping of that convention. There is a seating of delegates. That often leads to considerable flights where there are rival slates for the conventions committees, has to ratify the rules of the convention which lead to fights. These rules and credentials, particularly are important if the convention is still open in terms of the president ial nominee. So that both sides are using whatever leverage they have to get the early momentum of decisions that favor them, or the picking up of a few contested delegates that might make a difference. Richard even so, wouldnt we have to say, steve, as far as the convention is concerned historically, that 95 of its work is in the single act of choosing the nominee . Stephen yes. Richard platforms are portentous documents which say little and then to extend their try to extend their umbrella over the whole of the party, right, left. Actually if youre looking for the issues of the campaign or project what the president might do, your much better advised to look at the past behavior patterns of the candidate rather than whatever platform . Stephen certainly. The individual who may be president is far more important than the party in this respect. One thing we know about these upcoming conventions is that unless the nomination is not locked up, these delegates we just see are going to have a good deal of time on their hands. They are going to have some fun. An American Convention is like a three ring circus, and it is like any other Big Convention of likeminded people, whether they are engineers or plumbers. There is going to be a lot of shop talk in the corridors and lobbies. It will be listening to a lot of speeches with the opportunity for the party to put before the Television Cameras a lot of candidates are running for senator or governor back in their own states. There is a lot of talking and a lot of hoopla. Richard even within all of that hoopla, however, lets take a specific case. You and i both agree that mr. Carter seems to be the choice of the democrats. That will be ratified at the convention in july in new york. There is no surety on the republican side. We often, when discussing these matters of choosing the president , this commitment and uncommitment, charts and delegates, someone who has been committed to ford, some are committed to reagan, and some are not committed. Why do we say this . What are we really saying . They are saying they have pledged themselves. How firm do you think these places are in law . Stephen in law, it is governed by each state law. It is often just to one ballot. Sometimes, it is until their candidate dropped below 10 . Sometimes it is three ballots. It is not fixed forever and ever. They dont go down in a blaze of glory with that candidate if he should lose. Richard do you see any possibility the republicans might come up with a third personality, a compromise candidate, someone who could stand between ford and reagan . And, you the party or prevent disunity from setting in . Stephen it isnt likely. These two candidates are truly floated out on every stage they flooded out on every stage that there could be a battle. They have their partisans that feel strongly. They are very close to each other. One wins and the other loses. Theres not much give in a convention. In a big group of 3000 or 5000 people. We dont have very many oldtime people who can throw their delegates in. If we had a smokefilled room, who would we put in that smokefilled room . Richard we have two candidates. Im sure this is correct because you think back to 1952, even which was the big conflict between taft and eisenhower. Even then there were other candidates, fasten, warren who became chief justice, but it was interesting that on the balance and all of the primaries, it has just been reagan and ford. It is a one on one. The only one i seen in my lifetime watching american politics. Although one must recall of course the fact that it is oneonone, it does not necessarily mean the winner is going to lose. Because in 1952, kraft and eisenhower were calling each other every name in the book. There was real bitterness between these groups. And yet in november eisenhower went and won the victory over Adlai Stevenson. Stephen that is a very important point, and not just 1952 there is the closer parallel because they flooded out in the primary and the preconvention period. 1948, you have the incumbent president harry truman. Did not have a fight to get the nomination but left divided a very party. The south walked out. The liberals walked out. There were in fact three Democratic Candidates that were facing thomas dewey. As it turned out, harry truman appealed to the American People, put it back together and won a smashing victory. Richard take these into account, all it tells you about the convention and the Convention System is we might make as many mistakes predicting that as we did last january what the result was going to be. These conventions will be assembling this summer in new york and kansas city. What else should people look for, steve . We have said that 95 is choosing the candidate. We pointed out something about the rules and the platform. Is there any opportunity here for some new personality to thrust itself forward on the national scene, the way brian did with his cross of gold speech . Stephen the recent history of people who have been giving the keynote address, other national nominating speeches have not been very good. In terms of lightning strike. Douglas macarthur for example, who was the keynote in 1952, a situation similar to this. And many thought in the press wrote thought he would somehow stampede the convention, that did not happen. I doubt we are going to see a situation in which some electrifying speech is going to make a difference. Richard you remember when some people suggested in 1960 that out by stevenson would electrify that Adlai Stevenson would electrify the convention and did a third opportunity to win the presidency . Actually it had no effect on the delegates. The galleries liked it a lot, but the delegates. Stephen we could see some movement for the future of the party. The idea of john kennedy emerging and running for the vice presidency in 1956. Where he did not get it, but instead was this sort of opening gun in his campaign for 1960. Richard in fact you might even say that right now. Governor carter did the nominating speech for senator jackson in the 1952 democratic 1972 democratic convention. No one at the time thought this was starting him out on a great career in american politics. He finished off his term two years later as governor of georgia and went on to win or is about to win the democratic nomination in 1976. And in an atmosphere of almost love on the part of the democrats, i think you are quite right in pointing out the conviction of harry truman in 1958 and the effect on eisenhower. The fact that you have joy in the coronation atmosphere on the one hand, or great bitterness and strife on the other, there is only a slight relationship in november. This united party can often come together back quickly. On the democrats for example, in when humphrey was the candidate, 1968, the war was a really abrasive thing. And yet they came back in october almost to win. The republicans have done the same. I dont think we can automatically predicate. The atmosphere of the convention is going to decide november anymore than the atmosphere of january decided the convention. This is Richard Scammon in washington. With me has been stephen hess of the brookings institution. [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2020] [captioning performed by the national captioning institute, which is responsible for its caption content and accuracy. Visit ncicap. Org] applause]and mr. Carter my name is jimmy carter, and i am running for president. [applause] tonight, tonight i have some good news for you. We will have a democrat in the white house in january 20, 1977. [applause] ladies and gentlemen of the convention, proudly i place before you the name of jimmy carter as the nominee of the