Were here to talk about the president ial race, the Key Senate Races obviously. Lets start with a piece of yours, divided party or big tent. The subhead says while the gop is straining ability to governor, democrats divisions are propping up a big tent for now. Tell us about the democratic side of things first. Joe biden has some key decisions to make here in the coming week or so about who will be his Vice President ial pick. What do you think that comes down to in terms of the important things in his decision . Whats going to count most . Right. I think the number one issue for joe biden is doing no harm. The Vice President ial pick is only going to have so much of an impact on the general election in november. What hes probably most concerned about at this point is making sure hes choosing somebody who is not going to hurt his prospects. Luckily for joe biden, democrats are not in a majority in the senate and they do not have control of the white house. That means that all those democratic divisions that we hear so much about and were front and center in the 2016 president ial primary are not really being show cased right now because theyre not having to democrats are not having to come up with agreements to actually go on legislation. In the house, they do, but they have the Republican Senate majority to check that. That means that joe biden is able to create this Democratic Coalition that includes more progressive members of the party along with more moderate, especially the suburban former republicans that we keep talking about, all under one coalition with kind of a common enemy in donald trump. Meanwhile, republicans in the senate are having to grapple with their ideological divides in terms of especially the budget and spending as they figure out how to deliver a covid relief package which is going to be especially important for the most vulnerable senators in 2020 in november. Two of them are seeking reelection in states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Go back to this image here of the big tent for the democrats and in terms of the Vice President ial pick. Former republican governor, chris christie, was on this network, interviewed last thursday or friday with bob costa of the Washington Post, said Vice President pick doesnt matter. So, in terms of the democrats, does it matter whos picked as the Vice President when it comes to voting on november 3rd . It does matter in terms of the idea that one of these the Vice President candidate could introduce issues that becomes divisive. Again, its more of a do no harm issue rather than trying to encourage more voters to come out. There is a sense that if, you know, theres a particularly exciting candidate, possibly democrats could gin up enthusiasm, something they are lacking in november, something that republicans or at least Donald Trumps most fervent supporters are more excited to vote than joe bidens most excited supporters. What joe biden has thats actually a pretty big advantage is this major slate of women who have already been pretty heavily vetted, and thats because a lot of them ran for president. People like senator kamala harris. She was once seen as a front runner. It seems like forever ago, but she was once seen as a front runner for the democratic president ial nomination. Shes kind of gone through the gauntlet in terms of media scrutiny, in terms of opposition research. So, in a lot of ways, shes a really safe choice. Voters tend to know her a little bit better than they might know a member of congress who he could choose. Let me get a snapshot of polls from real clear politics. This is what they do in amal gough mating polls together. Their latest reporting on some of the states n. North carolina, they show biden up by 4. In georgia, very slim, biden up by 1. The latest on the general election is friday from real clear politics and showing biden up by 4. What in general is your take of the polls at this date three months out . So, right now you would rather be a democrat than a republican in the current polling nouch polling. Now that, doesnt mean that donald trump cant win in november, and i want to make that very clear because i feel that was one of the issues that came up in 2016 overand over again. In places like North Carolina and georgia, even though joe biden was in the lead in most polls that are coming out at this point, hes still in the margin of error and is supposed to be reading polls as trends, not as individual moments. For that reason, i think that donald trump has a lot more to worry about in michigan and wisconsin where polling has shown him trailing beyond the margin of error, sometimes up into the duouble digits. For fix had income and georgia, what republicans have to deal with is in addition to being president ial battlegrounds, it was not necessarily expected a few years ago, theyre also senate battlegrounds. So, republicans, if they lose North Carolina in the president ial race, they could also lose it in the senate race and the governors race. These are high stakes states in november for more than just the president ial race. Our guest is talking about cam pain 2020. Hes the editor and chief of the hotline with national journal. Would love to hear from you as well. The lines for republicans, 2027488001. 2027488001 for republicans. Democrats, 2027488000. And independents and others, 2027488002. Before we get to calls, lets turn to senate race, in particular primaries coming up tomorrow. Lets focus on kansas and the race between republican representative Roger Marshall facing off against the secretary of state in that state, chrchri chrichris chrichris chris kobach. Republicans are really concerned about nominating kris kobach. There are a few other republican candidates meaning that kris kobach could win. He lost the governors race in 2018 to a democrat. He has a very fervent base, but his fomer governor also made him toxic with a larger group. So, even though kris kobach could win a general election, it would mean republicans would have to invest in that race. He could also lose the general election in kansas which most republicans could not. In addition to this kind of everexpanding maps with two seats in georgia, a seat in montana, competitive races in North Carolina, the idea that republicans would also have to invest in kansas would be a major blow to morale. We will look at some of those races over the course of our conversation. Lets get to the call line. Good morning. Caller good morning. I noticed something about joe bidens perspective pick for Vice President. He says he has to pick a black woman. When the woman dropped out of the debates, he lost the womens vote. Deval patrick dropped out, he lost the black vote. I guess he figures a black woman will capture those women who vote their color and gender and dont worry about the issues because joe biden doesnt have any issues and he cant run on his record because he doesnt have a record. I find it kind of ironic that he would narrow his choices on that basis. By the way, any black woman who would consider running under that kind of a program, i have some recommended reading. Its called uncle toms cabin. Leah. Black women have been democrats most loyal supporters in elections going back years. This is not necessarily an issue of joe biden trying to convert black women. Its an issue of trying to gin up enthusiasm and possibly increase turnout. The idea that joe biden has lost women because he took women out in the debate, that doesnt really have much merit to it considering that women have been trending toward the Democratic Party, especially since the trump administration. But this has been going on for over a decade now. Joe biden is going to have that was always going to be the case. As much as the Vice President ial pick might be exciting news right now and its absolutely consequential because it is the second in command in the entire country, at top of voters minds is not necessarily the Vice President ial pick but is donald trump. And that is going to be more of a concern to women and people of color than the Vice President ial pick. That said, vieden has been struggling to increase his margins with latino voters and that could be an issue in places like arizona where narrow margins could make a difference in not just the president ial race but also the senate race. Lets hear from sergio in pomp know beach, florida, democrats line. Caller yes, greg. How are you this morning . Wering do fine. Go ahead with your comment. Caller yes, sir. Good morning leah. How are you . Good morning. Caller okay. My question is to you upon the campaign. How would that strengthen the campaign 2020, especially the Democratic Convention thats coming up . And that will help joe biden to more of his Vice President ial pick as well and the Republican Base as well. Yeah, the Democratic Convention is a big question right now because were just not sure what is going to end up happening. We know we dont know weve never done this before, this entire Virtual Convention. Usually, democrats and republicans see a postconvention bump where they see a bit of increase in their polling. Theres no guarantee thats going to happen this time around. Theres really no guarantee there will be a ton worth watching. We dont know whats going to be on the republican side. We do know on the democratic side. The obamas will be speaking. Thats just a big question mark right now and both candidates, trump and biden, want to increase their enthusiasm as much as possible. And its just really hard to do that amid the pandemic and the convention is just the latest example of that difficulty. There was a report over the weekend that usa today writes about no press, a delegate vote to renominate trump. They wrote the vote to renominate President Trump is set to be conducted this month without members of the press present said a spokesman for the Republican Convention citing the coronavirus pandemic. Emphasizing no final decisions have been made. He just mentioned some of the line up for the Democratic Convention, some of which will be held in milwaukee in august. So, so far we dont really know any sort of line up or schedule for the rnc Virtual Convention or whatever their plans are. No. Thats the big question mark is we know that there are some things that are going to be happening on the democratic side. Theyve been planning this Virtual Convention for months. Republicans kind of shifted their plans much more recently in the last couple of weeks sonchts we just dont have a sense of who will be speaking or whether well be able to see trump accept the nomination. Hopefully well have some answers soon, but we might not have those answers until the day of the convention. All right. To jack on the independent line. Caller good morning. Good morning to you guys. I got a couple of questions i want to ask, and then ill have a couple of comments. I wont take much of your time. But i heard this morning on the news that democrats im sure thats the leadership of the Democratic Party is going to try to keep joe biden from debating. And what i was wondering, how do they think that he can win the presidency if hes not capable of debating what kind of president . But i also believe ill hang up and you can listen to me in a minute. But i also believe at that hes not making the decision anyway. They know hes not going to be president. But thats the reason theyre taking so much time about picking his vice. But i just i was just wondering why, if thats true of course theres so much stuff that comes out this wasnt on cspan. It was on one of the news channels that they was gone try to keep him from debating. But if he dont debate its going to hurt him. That would be fine. I dont want to see him win anyway. All right, jack. Any indication that joe biden wont debate donald trump . This haggling about the number of debates is something we see constantly down ballot. Im in maine, for example, right now. We saw Susan Collins for senate here challenge the democratic challenger to 16 debates. Were seeing this across the board. This is nothing at least. At least down ballot. Its a little bit more new at the president ial level. The argument thats interesting had is not whether or not joe biden will debate at all, its how many debates well end up having, whether its going to be the traditional whether or whether they can increase that so that joe biden can have a little bit more air time. The crux of that whole argument is that right now republicans are if n pretty dire position in terms of polling and they need a change. And a lot of republicans are pinning the debates as the marker of that potential change. The idea is that once viewers get to see joe biden on live tv, nationally and a major event, then its possible that voters will change their minds. Thats what a lot of republicans kriend of pinning their hopes on at this point. So, thats probably part of the reason why the debates are being discussed so widely right now. I want to ask you your thoughts on this group, the lincoln group. First though theyre in the Washington Post this morning reported about hearing a story headline. Their goal, troll trump, hoping to drive the president out of office. A team of republican activists is creating the most talked about ads of the 2020 campaign. Thats george conway, Kellyanne Conways husband, rick wilson, and steve schmid. I want to play you one of their latest ads. Great independent leaders rise from maines hard soil, always have and always will. Take Margaret Chase smith when the men in the senate were terrified, she called them out, just like Susan Collins stands up to donald trump. Oh, wait, Susan Collins never stands up to donald trump. Thats why maine is done with her weakness and excuses. Collins isnt an independent. Shes a fraud. Mitch mcconnell and donald Trump Control her voice. She makes excuses for corruption, for criminality, all while friending shes worried, concerned, hoping donald trump learns a lesson this time. He never does e because she never stands up, never speaks out, never does what a maine loader should do. She doesnt work for maine. She works for them. And maine deserves a leader, not a trump stuj. Its time for Susan Collins to go. The ad by the lincoln group, the Lincoln Project, what is your they initially were ads against the president , criticizing the president. Theyve dived now into the senate races. Whats your take . So, this is probably one of the bigger changes from 2016. In 2016, we did see republicans deflect from the party. We saw republicans say that they would not vote for trump. But we didnt see a lot of money behind that. And we also didnt see a lot of republicans say that because they were not voting for trump they would then vote for Hillary Clinton. In 2020, we are beginning to see that a little bit more. The biggest impact or the biggest example of this probably is the Lincoln Projects major financial investments, not only the president ial race but down ballot. Now, that ad was targeting Susan Collins in maine. The fact that they actually talked about donald trump directly in that ad is significant. In other states we are not seeing Lincoln Projects talk about donald trump in senate ads in the same way in places like montana. In 2018, we very rarely saw democrats talk about donald trump at all. He was just kind of in the background, at least the vulnerable democrats were democrats who were running for competitive seats. The fact that they think they can now bring him up and then connect him to Susan Collins as an effective strategy in maine speaks to their confidence that donald trump is cratering in maine. If you say that in other states, that would be an indicator that theres confidence that trump is continuing to deteriorate across the country. And that maine senate race, a key focus for democratic efforts, obviously, she faces, Susan Collins, the incumbent facing sarah gideon. This was senator collins response to that Lincoln Project ad. My opponents say ive changed. I havent, but politics sure has. The nonstop false attacks against me began began more thaa year ago. Especially offensive are the outrageous attacks on my integrity. The suggestion that i traded my votes for Campaign Contributions is appalling. It never happened. Not once, not ever. I was raised in caribou by parents who taught me to be honest and to work hard. Citizens of maine have been trusting meet with their vote in the senate and ive cast it more than 7000 times. Never missing a single one. I will not back down from doing what i believe is right for maine that. Im Susan Collins and ive approved this message. We get back to your calls. Our guest Leah Askarinam is editor in chief of the hotline. Mark in summer field, carolina, is next. Yes. I thank you both. You mean your guests are absolutely incorrect of the fact that the Vice President ial pick for biden is going to be inconsequential. Unlike any other candidate in my lifetime, and ive lived quite a long time, its really not benefactor. In discussions with people who will grudgingly vote for biden, they all admit they dont think hes going to last the four years. They all admit that they think hes going downward in terms of his mental capacities and they will be looking at the vp as the next next president. They think almost certainly that is going to happen, that biden will not even lasting one term. I think it will be consequential, incredibly consequential. I think it will be a huge factor in the race. Okay, mark. Leah askarinam. To be clear, i dont think its inconsequential. I think people who are going to the polls will be making decisions based on a variety of factors and i dont think the Vice President ial pick will be top one unless something changes. Unless there is a big controversy or scandal surrounding one of those Vice President ial picks. Obviously in terms of the future of the Democratic Party, it has it major influence. Were seeing that joe biden has talked about having a younger cabinet that is more diverse. Bringing in the next generation of leaders. In that sense, it is consequential. In terms of what voters are actually going to be deciding when they go to the polls, i mean, voters care about a lot of Different Things obviously. We see the Approval Ratings of nancy pelosi being taking into account. What they think about the economy and investment into education and all sorts of issues. What we are looking at as election analysts is what moves voters. At this moment, it does not appear that the Vice President ial pick is at the top of that list. Right now, the election seems to be a referendum on President Trump. So a Vice President ial pick would have a big burden to carry if that were all of a sudden changed and now the election was about the Vice President ial pick. Its definitely possible, but it does not seem likely. Our caller was from North Carolina. Let me get your take on that race quickly. The incumbent is tom tillis, the republican. His challenger is cow cunningham. What do you think . Thats one of the most important races for the senate majority. Democrats need to pick up three seats for control with the democrat president. They need four seats to carve out a majority. Its difficult to imagine a scenario where North Carolina is not part of those three or four seats. Right now, carolina North Carolina has become a tough state for the president and the governors race. However, republicans are not running away by any means. Its an incredibly close contest and polls suggest its within a few points. The republican incumbent is in a tough buckleds position because hes trying to appeal to trump while appealing to suburban voters. Meanwhile, Cal Cunningham is relatively unknown and a safe alternative rather than the 2018 landscape. Some democrats are projecting themselves as middle of the road kind of practical figures. They are not trying to set the world on fire. Theyre trying to show that they would be a practical alternative. President trump weighing in this morning with his own poll information. As he often does with the rasmussen poll, saying 96 Approval Rating in the Republican Party. 50 in new rasmussen poll. Higher than obama at this point in time. Our caller is from wisconsin. Carrie and wisconsin, go ahead. Yeah i think when biden picks his Vice President ial candidate, i think he should pick someone whos a good debater. I hope one of their messages is that they do something with their medical insurance. As you know, everyone should have some kind of affordable insurance. If we have that, it would probably everyones insurance would go down in price. It wouldnt be so high. Some people have really high insurance. I think they also have to Work Together and try to unite this country again, because its so separated right now. The two of them together, i think they can do it. Thank you very much for cspan for taking my call. By. Okay. Carrie talked about health care, we havent really discussed those issues. How high of an issue is health care in the 2020 race . For democrats, its at the top of the issues they are talking about. Preexisting conditions especially. This was already the plan before the pandemic. It was the number one message during the 2018 midterms among House Democrats. It looks like they are trying to repeat that in 2020. Your much more likely in these competitive races, to hear democrats talk about health care, then you are to hear them talk about donald trump. This is their number one issue. Democrats have this sense that they could, theoretically, put something through. I think what will be tricky for democrats is, if they do win the majority in the senate and the white house, their divisions on medicare for all and the different intricacies of policy are going to be front and center. But right now, democrats can basically say we are the party of health care. We will come up with a plan for Public Health care. That is not a conversation republicans want to be having. They would rather talk about the idea of socialized medicine and bring that into an argument that democrats can become too extreme. Trying to shave off those suburban voters by seeing some democrats embrace medicare for all is a sign that they are not the party for them. Heres one of the latest joe biden ads focusing on the pandemic. Today, we are facing a serious threat. We have to meet it as one country. Numbers dont lie. Infection rates are now going up and more states than they are going down. We have to fight this together. Wear a mask, keep your distance, you limit the size of crowds. It may be inconvenient, it may be uncomfortable, but its the right thing to do is an american. We need a president who will level with the american people. A president who will tell us the unvarnished truth. A president who will take responsibility instead of blaming others. A president who listens to the experts, follows the science and allows them to speak. When a president who leads and will be an example for the nation. We have to do all we can to keep our fellow americans safe and healthy. Im joe biden and i prove this message. Our next caller is in lebanon, indiana. Republican. Yeah. I want to compliment the Democratic Party for the association, their grassroots booster. I know its something funny there in the contributions. Black lives matter is their largest contributor. Since they have 400 million from the Ford Foundation for and i dont see how we republicans can never catch up with their numbers. With them cutting off all of our social media and the news media thats on tv, its really tough for us to even fight back against that large amounts to deal. I do have to compliment the democrats on the very good way they are cutting off the republicans. The more riots, the more protests and everything, the more black lives gets and the more they donate to the Democratic Party. Thats just an amazing feat of engineering. Leah askarinam, let me ask you about campaign spending. This report in the wall street journal over the weekend, the Trump Campaign taking a break with tv ads. They reported that this comes in the wake of the change of the head of the Trump Campaign. Theres also indication that the president is retweeting his message to voters. What are you hearing . Number one, i want to talk about that blue. Theres a bit of a mous understanding about it. Its not an organization in and of itself. Its a platform for democrats to donate money through digital fundraising. It has been incredibly successful after years of building it up. What we are seeing on the republican side in terms of spending is trying to figure out what this whole map actually looks like. A few months ago, it may not have seemed like donald trump needed to invest in ohio. Its a state that has shifted from purple to red. Thats a state that could get some attention. It looks like the Joe Biden Campaign could put some attention into texas, which again, is a red state that is maybe becoming slightly purple. At this point, there hasnt been a democrat there in years. What youre seeing with spending decisions is trying to figure out where the map is. Especially after this so called blue wall tumbled down in 2016. Are the traditional key states of michigan, wisconsin and ohio . Or are they now arizona, North Carolina and georgia . I think theres probably an answer that is some place in between there. Democrats have plenty of resources to invest in those, but the rnc and President Trump are actually the stronger national fundraisers. Democrats have incredibly Strong Fundraising network down ballot, but trump has been the republicans strongest fundraiser. The Republican Party is having a pretty tremendous fundraising success through him in the rnc. Just a snapshot view of the weekly tv ad spending from the wall street journal. And blue is the biden campaign, in red is the Trump Campaign, you can see the fall off after july 28. This is an ad from america first, a pro trump pact. It focuses on the protests and some of the rioting that followed and the efforts by some democrats to, quote, defund the police. Heres the ad. Come here honey. Hide under this bed. Mommy im scared. They, mean its going to be okay. You have reached 911 emergency services. Due to budget cuts and increased criminal activity, our agents are busy assisting other colors. Your whole time is 17 minutes. Have a nice day. Yes, absolutely, yes. America first is responsible for the content of this advertising. Leah askarinam, as the issue of protests in cities and they begin to die down, how does that remain in issue for the Trump Campaign . The idea that democrats are too extreme. That has been in issue that republicans have been trying to get to the front four years at this point. At the beginning of the cycle, it seems like republicans would be able to deliver that message through highlighting medicare for all. Through highlighting the green new deal, for example. Those are issues that are just not at the court front at the moment because of the pandemic and also because of these major protests happening throughout the country. Instead, republicans have grasp upon these new realities in order to get the same message across that theyve been trying to get across for years. They tried to get it across in 2018 as well. Whats tricky about this is the same thing i mentioned earlier about. Joe biden early on said he disagreed with calls to defund the police. The idea that these protests are going to add more of an impact on peoples decision then the pandemic. Its a pretty risky bet there. Right now, the pandemic is the thing that is shaping most peoples day to day lives. But the idea of fear of what the Democratic Party could offer is nothing new for the republican strategy. It is a key tenet to what they believe would need to happen for donald trump to win reelection. Lets get back to calls. We will hear from frank on our democrats line in spanish fork, utah. Hi. I have a question for your guest, but i want to make a comment first if i could on the gentleman speaking about act blue. Ive been donating through that platform to Democratic Candidates since 2015. Its grassroots, well run and easy to make even small donations. Ive never heard about it accessing these huge amounts that the earlier caller was saying. I look at it as a well run grassroots fundraising apparatus. My question is, it seems to me that in the 2016 Democratic Convention, that bernie sanders, his outlook on politics its seemed to me like they undermined the Sanders Campaign at that convention. Biden has always been more middle of the road. Im wondering if you hear anything about, you know, if biden gets in, is he going to go back to being more middle of the road . Im saying this because the democrats get accused of being socialists and listening to the squad and more leftwing type of stuff. But i think biden will tend to go back to a more moderate democratic stance. I wondered if you had any comments on that and if that is a problem. Okay, frank. Leah askarinam, does biden have to appeal to those sanders supporters of 2020 and 2016 . Fortunately, hes gotten donald trump in the white house to do a lot of the work for him. Joe biden, his main argument is donald trump is not a good fit for the presidency of this country. His main argument, whether hes targeting moderates or progressives. In the 2018 midterms, House Democrats won the majority through candidates who are not members of the squad. The majority was one through members who are now members who campaigned on a public option in terms of health care. Who said that medicare for all would be a good option in the future, but its not the right answer front right now. Even this current new classes that were seeing, some of these progressive challengers in addition to these open democratic seats, were seeing a mix of candidates coming. Some are progressive and some who are not self described as progressive. I think you can be progressive with that supporting medicare for all. These are all issues that democrats are going to have to grapple with if they win the white house and the senate. These issues are helpful right now to have because it means you can build a big coalition. Once they become the governing party, that is when it becomes an issue and that is when republicans can start thinking about making gains in the house. That is where democrats will have to think about 2022. I wanted to get your quick take and thoughts on the arizona race between two genuinely genuine american heroes. A former Fighter Pilot and senator Martha Mcsally and astronaut mark kelly. How do you view that race . Martha mcsally is one of the republicans biggest fundraiser and is still being massively out raised by marc kelly. Martha mcsally is arguably the most vulnerable republican senator at the moment. She does have to think about her 2018 loss and what needs to be different this time around. At the beginning of these cycle, it appeared that a lot of her effort would go into making sure that trumps race saw her as their biggest ally. As trumps numbers begin to fall throughout the country, that is going to be a much tougher path for mcsally, who now has to come up with other ways to kind of differentiate herself from President Trump as he becomes less popular in the state. She has been talking a lot about china. That is one of the issues that she has been talking about in order to not talk about trump. Shes probably the most vulnerable republican at this moment. Lets get a call or two more. We will hear from joe on the independent line from maine. Yes, good morning and thank you. I want to make one quick comment about Susan Collins. She repeatedly lied to the people from maine. Thats why shes in trouble in the race. Its as simple as that. If you want some examples, id be glad to give them. We can start with kavanaugh. She has no excuses. She refuses to talk about it. My point is this. What can the republicans run on . Seriously. There is no plan for getting us out of covid. There is no plan to bring jobs back. None. Zero. There is no plans. There is food lines in america. Joe, we will hear from our guest. Nationally, i think the republican message is more about the democrats. Its a referendum on democrats. When you look at individual senators like Susan Collins or cory gardner in colorado, which are actually seeing is them trying to talk about pieces of legislation that they have passed. Their individual records in the state. In maine, youve probably seen the ad where Susan Collins talks about her perfect voting record. In colorado, you are seeing cory gardner talk about his work on the environment. They are trying to talk draw attention to individual things that they have accomplished in the state to help them over perform trump. And places like colorado and maine, those are the places where Republican Senate candidates are probably going to have to overperform trump more than any place else. I guess we will have to get you back to go through some of the other senate races. Im sure we will. 90 days to the election. Weve been speaking with National Editor in chief, Leah Askarinam. You can follow the reporting on twitter. Thanks so much for being here. Thanks so much for having me. Republican senator tim scott and Baltimore Police commissioner harrison talk about Police Reform and effective ways to bridge the gap between police and the communities they serve. They spoke an event hosted by the american bar association. This is about an hour and 15 minutes. Its my no