On cspan 3, online at cspan. Org or listen live on the free cspan radio app. Kevin is a state house bureau chief for the union leader. He is joining us from concord, New Hampshire, and over the last 20 to 25 years the Granite State has become a real battleground state. Why . Whats changed . Yeah. Thats interesting. I mean its quite a contrast, right. Ronald reagan, when he ran for reelection in 48 declared it the most republican state in the country. You could have made that case like utah and nevada perhaps. New hampshire has become much more of a swing state. I think primarily because of the migration here. Were unusual in that now fewer people in New Hampshire actually were born here. More than 60 of its residents are not natives. Many of them are come from massachusetts. They kind of came to escape higher taxes and more regulation and but particularly on social issues, theyre very progressive and thats what weve really seen over the years in New Hampshire is not only more my braigration that has mae electorate more center, less right leaning, but also, many of these residents that came here are much more their much more greater expectation of Government Services than New Hampshire typically had and i think that also is what has led to New Hampshire becoming a swing state. The other piece really is the fact that independents are such a strong ethic here and they continue to grow in size. I mean, 25 years ago, independents really made up only about 25 of the electorate. Now its at this rate its going to be 50 by like 2030. Its now 43 of the electorate are independents. We make it very easy for independents to take part in primaries independents to take part here in New Hampshire and they can show up on election day to register to vote, and as a result a i think that has also created a very fertile group of folks for democrats to go after, and theyve been very effective in getting independents to votedommicly. And of course as you well know just look at the results of 2016 to give our audience of how close the race was with Hillary Clinton essentially eking out a very narrow victory. Would you expect the same in 2020 . Yeah, i think it will be competitive. I mean, roy right now trump is suffering from difficult disapproval ratings here, rising disapproval ratings here in the last month or two. But its under 10 points. Its important to remember that unlike Hillary Clinton joe biden does not have a record of success in New Hampshire. Hes run for president three times, never finished better than fifth. And of course just this last primary he left the New Hampshire before the results were even in and went to South Carolina and ended up finishing really far down in fifth place. So the Trump Campaign meanwhile has been active and organizing here very aggressively for over a year. The president has been in New Hampshire three times since he won the white house in 2016 and twice in the last year and had some very big rallies at both events. So given the advantages of incumbency and bidens core components in the past makes it again a really tight race here. Of course the winner back in 2016 and this year the democratic primary from the neighboring state of vert minute senator Bernie Sanders. Does he add any gravitas to the Biden Campaign moving into the fall . I think it will help. They seem to have had a Good Relationship. I mean, you hit on something really important, steve. As we saw in 2016 hillary had great difficulty getting bernies huge organization here to line up behind her. I mean, thats what folks tend to forget. While she narrowly won in the general election Bernie Sanders won by almost 30 Percentage Points over hillary. And so getting all of that group behind her was really, really important, and it was difficult. But biden hadnt had that problem with bernie. I think theyve had a Good Relationship throughout the New Hampshire primary campaign. There were very few low blows fired by either candidate, so sanders folks are looking forward to getting behind biden, and whats interesting is particularly for the Biden Campaign hes going to profit from september. In september we have a primary race for governor, which is of course statewide. And that again, thats unusual in New Hampshire. In the Democratic Party the leadership of the party tends to anoint their candidates for major office. We often dont have really aggressive, active primaries on the democratic side. This will help the Biden Campaign really as it exercise get out there, test their get out the vote efforts and hopefully be well tuned up in time for november. Lets look ahead four years from now because as you know the debate continues why New Hampshire is first in the nation. You saw what happened in iowa. A lot of questions whether or not the Iowa Caucuses will even be around in 2024. So looking ahead four years from now where will New Hampshire be in the political process . Its a very good question, and i think fortunately they didnt have the problems iowa had. The turn out was very good. The campaigns all felt like they had a Good Opportunity to make their case there that the election was fairly held. Certainly the belief here is that if trump were to be reelected president it would be difficult for the democrats not in leadership nationally not to take another run at trying to really shakeup the calendar, right . So which is to say in many respects, i know a number of prominent democrats ive talked to feel this way, biden can win New Hampshire and can beat trump and get elected. Hes less likely to want to upset the applecart in a dramatic way. I think moving forward New Hampshire democratic leaders, the secretary of state has said this privately as well we really need to have kind of a soulsearching discussion about our relationship with iowa. Meaning if Party Leaders on the National Democratic side are convinced that its time to do away with iowa, move it out of that forced position and then New Hampshire political leaders in both parties now are thinking, okay, who would be partnered with if not iowa . Should it be a caucus state, perhaps nevada comes to mind. Because we certainly wouldnt allow it to be a primary to come before New Hampshire. But its a serious subject, and its going to get a lot of discussion and may turn on what happens in november, who wins. But you think one way or the other there could very likely be some changes to the calendar in four years. Yes, i do. I really do. And there have even been prominent people in both parties politically who have kind of talked privately about how do we retain the first primary but change this relationship, and how should it be changed, meaning case in point should we if New Hampshire keeps the first in the nation primary should we consider permitting more than one sfat to hold a primary within a week, two weeks . In other words, you know how weve always had those four early states for the last two decades or so in that order do i think theres going to be an openness on New Hampshires part to allow more states to take part earlier if it means we continue to have our first in the nation status. And more immediately looking ahead to the primary in september and the general election in november who has the stronger ground game right now . In terms of president ial campaigns . Correct. Sure. I think the Trump Campaign has done an excellent job in terms of expanding its base in New Hampshire and used these rallies and social media to expand quite a bit the volunteers they have on the ground helping them now. Theyve been doing phone banking for over six months now in the Trump Campaign. Theyve also gotten very involved in these special elections that we have so many of as you know, steve. Invariably people move out, they die, or they resign for some reason. So we usually have about a dozen special elections. The Trump Campaign has been really involved in all of those. Hasnt won all of those, but again its helped them grow the ground game, kind of feed the beast if you will. We havent seen joe biden return here since the New Hampshire primary. I think he will be here, and hell probably be here more than once and that would certainly help grow their game. The one advantage someone like biden has is essentially who else is at the top of the ticket . Very popular. Theres two wellspoken republicans running in a primary now, but shes the odds onto win. Shes clearly strategic wise the most gifted politician weve had since world war ii in New Hampshire. So shes going to help the Biden Campaign really get its act together and work with her campaign and try and merge it with theirs and thats going to help no question. And quick followup, her husband billy shaheen, what role will he play . Hell be important for sure. Its a National Democratic committee man. He endorsed biden in the primary, some time before it. And it certainly helps to have that kind of relationship, and i i know hes very much a conduit between the senator and Vice President and that is going to be part of what makes this a really competitive race in november. I mean, if there was no senate race as there wasnt two years ago i think biden would have a tougher chance than having shaheen support both is really going to help bolster him in a state hes never done well. And because its such a competitive state well be checking in with you often. He is the state bureau chief for the union leader. Thank you for being with us. Thanks, steve. Great being with you