Transcripts For CSPAN3 Discussion On Syrian Conflict 20240713

In the interest of time and because we are on air at cspan, we should get moving. Ill be giving opening remarks. Well get started on some of our opening remarks, and then swiftly alex will be here and well start the moderator discussion. First of all, as i say, welcome to the middle east institute. Thank you ever so much for joining us for this extremely important event. As someone whos work on syria and particularly on idlib nan stop for the last nine years, i can safely say that events like this kopt come as a more important time. Im also not aware of any other events like this one happening in washington these days. So im extremely glad its taking place. The humanitarian crisis thats developed in northwestern syria in recent months is entirely unprecedented. Not just after nine years of war in syria, but in this whole worlds modern history. And yet despite the sheer enormity of the crisis, the world has yet to do much more than issue public statements of concern. Im going to keep my opening remarks pretty brief because if i get carried away ill end up saying everything i plan to say on the panel. But the one thing i do want to say from the outset is how grateful i am to have such an esteemed panel of experts and practicers. All of whom will lend and youll see this shortly an invaluable perspective to understanding what remains a complex but extraordinarily important issue. First on our far left, we have dr. Zara zaw looul whos the founder of med global, a medical ngo that provides Free Health Care to to refugees. Dr. Zaw looul has just returned from a kmel mission where he visited humanitarian partners, met with recently displaced people in idp camps and treated patients in the largest hospitals Still Standing in idlib. He shared these experiences and details of the ongoing crisis with the u. N. Secretary Generals Office and member states. Dr. Zalul is also a president of the american medical society, sams, the cofounder of the syrian relief and the faith initiative. He was awarded the chicagoan of the year in 2016 for his medical work in besieged aleppo. Elizabeth sircof is at the Foreign Policy research institute, a doctororal student at princeton, and a prolific writer on syria. Her research is based on a Large Network of contacts across syria as well as field work. Shes also a Research Fellow at the forum for regional thinking, a progressive think tank in jerusalem. Shes worked as a consultant for many places. She has a decade of experience working with human rights organizations in the middle east, defending the rights of refugees, migrants, laborers, palestinians and ethnic and religious minorities. Alex marquardt is an Award Winning National Correspondent based in washington focusing on National Security issues. He spent most of the past decade as a correspondent for abc news based in moscow, beirut and london. He spent time on the front lines in wars. He reported on the refugee and migrant crisis, covered the wave of terror attacks by isis. Among the first in cairo as the revolution exploded, and made many trips into the war to make reports. He was on the ground in gazza during the wars with israel and traveled across ukraine as the Russian Military invaded. On behalf of us, welcome to all two or soon to be three of you. Really looking forward to this important discussion that will follow. The last thing ill say is one final note before we do hand over. I want to let you know were all going to be taking questions and questions for the panelists, and polling questions from all of you in the audience, and from Live Television viewers via the intactive cite menti. Com. I believe the information is on the screen here. If you go to that website on your smartphones or any Electronic Device and enter the code 622500, youll be able to submit your own questions throughout the event, answer two polls which ill go through in a second at any time during the panel, and you can see and up vote other peoples questions all throughout the panel as well. This will essentially allow our moderator to keep a engaged discussion going with all of your input throughout the whole event. And i should just add the first poll here is a relatively strayed fort one. Should the u. S. Try to play a role in stopping the viernolencn idlib . You can vote yes or no. Youll see the results change as we go. And the second one, which im hoping will come up because i dont have it in front of me, will come up in a minute and will be similarly straightforward. There will be a second one with more answers to the question, which will probably give us a little bit more of an interesting and more complex response. So on that note, i will go and sit and take my place on the panel. Alex i see has arrived. Hell be here shortly. We will start going perhaps with elizabeth first. Perhaps ill follow on, and dr. Sarlul will conclude. So thank you so much for coming here and as charles said, this is really a crucial moment in the history of the syrian uprising that turned into a civil war, and i think when we reflect back on this time also in the history of the 21st century. This is essentially a humanitarian crisis of extreme proportions, and it actually has the significant potential to get worse. So i wanted to draw our attention to the fact that first of all we are talking about a massive displacement crisis, so since the start of the offensive by the regime in russia and later on Iranian Forces joined in as well, were talking about over 1 Million People displaced from their homes towards the border with turkey. Those individuals cannot return to their homes. Unless a cease fire is put in place, these people will not be able to return. We are talking about the start of a protracted displacement crisis, or more correctly the acsellration of a displacement crisis with essentially most of the population. In idlib were talking about a population of 3 Million People. Most of them are now displaced. Theyre living along this stretch aland along the border with turkey in tents, if they are lucky, in apartments that they rent if they are welloff relative i to others. And just outside in the cold under trees. If they cannot even find a tent. And this situation will not improve unless steps are taken to ensure the areas from which people fled to allow people to return, to areas that will not be under areas of control because the population fears living under the regime. The towns, if they remain in regime hands, population will largely not return to these areas. They do not feel safe to return. Therefore were talking about right now were talking about a crisis. But these people have no homes basically to return to. And in conversations with people in idlib, ive been speaking to people there for many years. The level of desperation and the genuine belief that they are about to die en masse is very prevalent. This of course has an effect on the ability and willingness of people to resist what is happening, to resist both in trying to still care for their communi community, and trying to remain resilient, and also military resistance. This is a sense that this is futile. That outside actors basically decided their fate. And therefore that they might as well pick up and leave instead of trying to defend their towns. And this is why were seeing mass flight even of ablebodied men towards displacement camps. And this is what is contributing to the Rapid Advances of Regime Forces. I think that for people who spent time in idlib as dr. Sa lul has and people who speak a lot to the population at idlib, theres also a sense that this population is particularly resilient. This is a population whose even before the current displacement crisis, half of it were displaced from other areas. They refused to live under the assad regime, fled from other areas, very, very strong population that endured enormous levels of violence and kept strong with institutions, with mutual support. This is now really breaking apart. People are being pushed to the edge where they can no longer take care of their community. They are now focusing on mere survival, on survival for themselves to feed themselves and their children. The humanitarian crisis is of such proportions that this society that was very, very strong and resilient is now breaking apart. There are still people who are trying to help others. There are amazing volunteers, amazing ngo workers. But there is the sense that everything is just falling apart. And i think that the fact that such a strong population is now tearing at the seams just goes to show the extent of terror to which people have been subjected, thru air strikes, mass displacement. People also know what happens to people who remain behind in the towns that were captured, the few who did so, a tiny tiny minority, videos have emerged of people being executed, of people being tortured after being captured. And this is something that is creating a real sense of terror among the population. That expect that the regime will continue to advance towards them. The fact faith in the turkish intervention is very limited. They intervened in idlib back in 2017 and has been unable to stop the violence. There is an honest belief that they are about to die. When i talk to people and i try to understand, what will they do . What will they what are they thinking of doing next . Something, you know, when it gets really bad, we will storm the Turkish Border, which is the main turkish concern, why turkey intervened. Others are saying, this is our fate and that will what will happen to us, and weve accepted it and you should. Im calling on all of us not to accept it. This is not were talking about a population, most of the population in idlib are children. 51 according to u. N. Data. Many women live there. Men who have done nothing to participate in the conflict and to deserve the type of horrors that are being inflerkted on them right now. Thank you. Thank you, elizabeth. Go ahead. Okay. So im going to start with the syrian thing, which is a quiz. So if youre used to the syrian culture, you believe that the man in the family or someone will quiz their children about something. Im going to quiz you. Who said we are watching the brutal end game of a war in syria as if it has little to do with us, but it does . We should be using our diplomatic power to insist on a cease and negotiate peace, instead based on at least some measures of political participation, accountability and the conditions for the safe return of refugees. Who said that . I will help you. It is not President Trump. It is not secretary general antonio gutierrez. Angelina jolie wrote this yesterday in an oped. What weve seeing is lack of leadership, in the u. S. Especially and in the u. N. General especially with General Gutierrez and that is why we have an endless nine years of war and suffering in syria. And in order to attract the attention of the media or policymakers it has to be unprecedented. If we only have 50,000 people displaced in syria, nobody would say something. It has to be 90,000 people in two months for people to respond to the Syrian Crisis. A couple of days ago cnn contacted to me to have an interview about idlib and then they said, sorry, we have breaking news. I said what is this breaking news . They said that previous governor of illinois blagojevich will released and this is more important for us. So i was thinking that you one corrupt governor who is in prison and being released and this is the big news now compared to 900,000 people who have who are suffering in idlib who have no shelter, some of them are freezing to death and the media could not cover these two stories. And why is the media important . Because when the madia cover a story it applies pressure on the poli policymakers and decide 900,000 humans in idlibs should be perceived as human like us and our policymakers should Pay Attention to them and then the policymakers will Pay Attention to them. And this is not happening in the past nine years except for short windows of opportunity. I came from idlib a couple of months ago. Im a physician in chicago. Im a care specialist. So ive been going back and forth in syria in the last few years and ive bin in aleppo and including yemen, gaza, bangladesh and the hurricane in puerto rico, in columbia to help with immigrant crisis or refugee crisis. My organization mid global provide health care to the refugees displaced and the victims of foreign disasters. But what ive seen in idlib is something that i havent seen in any other disaster region. Im not saying that because im originally from syria, but sa a ssa but saz a humanitarian and a doctor. And speaking to the resilience busine elizabeth has been talking about. And a doctor who used to come to the every year for courses and then applied the skills that he learned back in syria. Weighs the best neurosurgeon in syria. He treated some of the victims of the snipers in hamas. For those who dont understand the history of the Syrian Crisis, when the uprising started by the Peaceful Demonstrations by young people in the street, quietly diverse in the cities asking for political reform and the regime used several tactics to prevent what happened where you have a change in the regime and i think youve been in egypt and you would know but what is happening there. So they use snipers to shoot at demonstrators. And in many cities. And when doctors treated these victims of snipers, then doctors were put in prisons and tortured to death. And they also targeted the peaceful activists that are leading the demonstrations by killing and torture and putting them in prison. They also released the jihadist that were trained and recruited to fight american troops in iraq and basically this is predictable what they will do. They knew that jihadist will carry arms and causing the uprising to transform from peaceful to sectarian and so forth. And he allows them to fester in syria while targeting the moderate opposition in many other areas. And they knew that the jihadist will apply to other places. And they use extreme and unpress departmented unprecedented tactics to end this uprising. By using chemical weapons more than 200 times and targeting hospitals and doctors according to physicians for human rights, more than 580 hospitals were bombed in syria, mostly by the saudi regime and russia and 110 doctors and nurses were killed. One, they are discharging their humanitarian duty. The neurosurgeon was one part of the doctors in hamas and treated a victim and his family was wiped out by the regime and his brother was imprisoned and he was surrounded in the old city of hamas and then when the old city of hamas was controlled by the regime he was displaced to north of hamas where he continued to perform surgery on the victims before and also on kplu community for brain tumors and strokes and things like that. When the north of hamas was overrun by the regime, he moved to aleppo and now idlib and now in one of the largest hospitals in idlib. He continues to go to the hospital, knowing he may thought return to his family alive every day. These heroes should be our heroes. Every physician and nurse and Health Care Worker in the United States of america should be aware of these heroes that are are discharging their humanitarian duty knowing they may be killed while committing their duties. When we talk about the syrian communities in idlib, the main reason is the fact that you have hospital and clinics that are treating the children of the families and the communities there. People told me in aleppo and idlib, they will they will take the chance of living in neighborhoods and cities that will have bail bonds and missiles but when you dont have a physician that has a fever, then they will leave. So when we talk about half of the population of syria displaced, half of the population, 12 Million People in syria displaced, 7 million inside and 6 outside, 13 million. The main reason is this tactic that was done successfully by the assad regime by the iranians and russians to bomb and zroip hospitals, to bomb and destroy markets. The civilian infrastructure. And that is leading to the huge displacement of the population  showing on social med extreme brutality that will happen to people who are left behind. So now in the social media youre seeing the videos of desecration of tombs and by assad regime militias so this is message sent to even your dead will not survive our brutality and if you come to the areas, youre have the same fate. Im going to speak also about the children in syria. Because this is the future of syria. And this is the drawing i brought with me from idlib. With children of the one of the refugee camps or displaced camps. And this is and this drawing was drawn with mud because it is very muddy. There was flooding in that camp. And we had to wear long boots to navigate the mud. And this child, her name is esma, and shes 12 years old north of hamas and she was displaced with her family seven times. Seven times. Were not talking in many other wars you have two one or two placement and then you have seven or eight displacement going north and to idlib and now these people dont have any other place to go. They are trapped. They cannot go to any other place. So if someone thinks they could flee to europe or turkey or jordan or lebanon or iraq, they cannot flee. Idlib is land locked. It is the size of and now the size and the space that these people are living is shrinking over and over. As told me she wants to be a daughter. Most of the children want to be doctors and teachers and architects and our government here can help them be a source of healing. And not only in syria but for the whole middle east. Instead of being a source of instability and chaos and extremism. If we just focus on syria, Pay Attention to it, because syria is important. Not because im syrian, not because the iphone was invented by Syrian American but is cream was invented by a Syrian American but because of the geography of syria. Because of the location of syria and certain places, the countries that surround syria, the fact that many may go through syria, for the many things that the history of syria, it is very important. One of the princeton professors that you go to princeton right now Philip Hattie in 1956 said syria is microscopic in size but cosmic in influence and what is happening in syria is affecting us in the United States. The large refugee crisis that happened in syria 2015 when i was invited to the middle east at that time, 2016, we aided refugees and the sentiment drives a group and populism in europe and the stabilization of europe and the certain politicians here in the United States. So we have to care about syria because we care about us here. If we dont just consider the humanitarian issue. [ applause ] so i kind of feel i guess it would have made sense for me to talk first but i was going to talk a little bit about the the lay of the land and where we are sort of strategically. But it was to follow on from those very powerful human stories and perspectives is a tough one. But as i think weve heard bit from elizabeth already, over a Million People, the u. N. Said 900,000 but i think those are an undercounting. They are counting starting december 1st. The offensive started at the end of april 2019. Exactly. So over a Million People have been displaced just since the first of december. Were talking less than three months. There were already about 850,000 people displaced in the north of idlib. So the population along the northern strip of idlib along the Turkish Border is close to if not reached 2 Million People. That is a massive density of population. Idp camps are full. They were full a long time back. There are simply no tents left. People are sleeping in the fields, as least i think eight children have frozen to death in the last two weeks because they have been forced to flee and with no shelter. So when u. N. Officials and when we discuss and talk about this as being unprecedented, it truly is unprecedented. The u. N. Itself admitted two days ago in the Security Council that they had vastly underestimated the scale of funding and equipment and facilities that they would need to deal with this crisis. And theyve doubled their financial ask for the International Community to deal with it. Beyond that, the United Nations is stuck. There was a french proposal in the last few days to issue a statement, just a statement, calling this an emergency and calling on the International Community to do all it can to cease hostilities and the russian vetoed that. Just a statement. So the prospect for meaningful u. N. Action beyond rhetorical statements is a tough one to consider right now. In new york, there is great pressure on the u. N. Secretary general to do something more. Hes been virtually silent himself on this issue because the u. N. Has other concerns in syria. Primarily access in the regime area of damaskus and the areas, i think the Munich Security Conference was a week or so ago and the theme was restlessness which they defined as the western world forgotten and lost touch what it means to be a meaningful player in the world and the almost total silence from the western world on the issue is say perfect encapsulation of what the Munich Security Forum called westlessness. There is no urgency or even attention from the policymakers. Militarily on the ground, just to give you all a clear picture of where things have proceeded, in the last ten months since april last year when hostilities first really surged, roughly 35 to 40 of northwestern opposition controlled syria has been recaptured by proRegime Forces. So nearly a year and theyve about a third of the way there. The lines have moved faster over the map in time than they did early on and i think elizabeth makes an important point, the capacity to defend and with hold this this military campaign is limiting as time goes by. The key regime objective was to take control of the m5 highway which runs if you could picture syria, from the biggest city aleppo south to damascus and then capture the m4 which splits idlib in half and cuts into the coastal heartland of the regime. Were certainly not there yet. But the key dynamic to consider right now and especially in the last week or so is turkey. Turkey has had a military presence in idlib for a long while. Theyve established what they would call observation posts. They are had agreement with russia to establish the observation posts. There are 31 now in idlib. 13 have been completely surrounded and effectively besieged by the regime as it marched northward, so nearly half of the posts have fallen effectively without a fight and that raises all kinds of questions about why turkey hasnt done more until now to with stand the pressure on an issue which frankly i think is existential for president erdogan, whether you look at his allies in parliament or opposition in parliament, there is huge pressure to avoid a single syrian refugee entering turkey. From idlib or any other area of the northern border. And the prospect of 2 million refugees sat on the border, if they were to cross, it will kel erdogans reelection chances, permanently irreversible in my opinion. If idlib were to fall or turkey humiliated in idlib, we could see the dominos start to fall and the turkey presence in the rest of Northern Syria begin to erode so the stakes for turkey couldnt be much more significant but the pushback has been frankly pretty limited so far. We saw a minor military offensive byish soldiers but within hours they were pushed back. And that brings in a new element. Russia and turkey are coming to blows in idlib. The Turkish Military has fired man pads shoulder larged surfacetoair missiles at russian jets as of the last 24 hours. No insignificant development. They have provided their opposition proxy, not the Jihadist Group but with far more advanced Weapons Systems and Armored Vehicles than in this area of the country at any time over the last nine years. Theyve deployed tanks into idlib and Armored Vehicles, multiple rocket launch systems, allegedly a highly sophisticated electronic interference system which would target russian and syrian jets at some point and despite that weve continued to see the regime advance. So my big question is what is coming. Erdogan has issued a deadline to withdraw. Clearly not going to do that. But i will expect or would expect the turks to push back in a much more serious way at some point by the end of the month. And the big question mark over that is what happens then . How significant and does it work or does it not and then were looking at catastrophic scenarios of a continued regime advance all the way toward the northern border. I have loads more to say but ill stop there because we should get discussion. I wanted to apologize for coming in late, in cnn, the last 24 hours been a turnover, shall we say at the highest level of the intelligence community. And i say that not just to explain why im late but to speak to dr. Sahlouls comment about the news drowning out what is going on in syria. That is not an excuse but there is a tremendous amount of upheaval in washington and the u. S. And i think cnn has done a good job of covering the crisis in idlib. My colleaguar wa damon has reported out there. But this is a crisis not getting nearly enough attention. And elizabeth laid that out very clearly. I think for people who watch and have been observing and even reporting on this Syrian Crisis were used to the superlatives or shocking figures and horrific stories and photos. So if you wouldnt mind, if you could just please put this in a bit more context of why this is a unique moment and then speak a little bit to what charles mentioned there about the bottleneck of why aid isnt reaching these people, it just seems so logical and yet even things like rhetorical statements cant be done. So were definitely talking about unprecedented crisis. With with the u. N. As you mentioned and other ngos completely unprepared. When i spoke to friends who work in ngos inside of idlib, the first 100,000 we could handle and then the second 200,000 we could handle and then our capabilities are gone. We saw it very clearly also in communities themselves. Part of the population is able to afford to rent a car and flee the border and rent a place with relatives or stay with relatives or rent a place and live in it. But then the poorest of the poor and most of idlibs population is extremely poor, they are really unable to cope with this crisis in any way. So we end up having situations in which the regime is advancing rapidly and people do not want to stay because they expect to be captured and executed or taken to prison and we all know what happens in regime prisons. The u. N. Characterized it as extermination. So people want to flee. Even ones who have no connection to any political activity. Even i know people who are employed by the Syrian Government and continue to receive salaries from damascus but yet theyre afraid of remaining in the regime and falling in regime hands because they see what happens to people who stay behind, they get executed. So therefore the population wants to flee but they cannot afford to flee. So we end up having situations in which ngos come and do convoys but then the ngos run out of cars and buses and ability to transport people. So people start walking on foot, simply fleeing as if were talking about a war in the previous century where there are no vehicles around and families are forced to walk for seven, eight hours towards the nearest town and seek shelter because theyre so afraid of being captured alive. And so this is something that hasnt happened before in idlib. Weve never seen we have never seen the situation in which a person cannot find a tent. This power play does not offer protection from the cold because there is no heating but at least it protected you from the rain. Now so many people are living in fields. We are seeing more and im talking to doctors inside and im sure youve heard this too, of cases to amputate body parts due to frost bite. This is something that is even if there is no willingness on the part of the west to do anything to longterm create some kind of a ceasefire and prevent people from eventually being captured by the regime and killed or being forced to flee into turkey. Breaking the border and fleeing into turkey. Even the humanitarian assistance isnt sufficient. The children who are freezing to death and losing limbs, it is simply due to lack of aid. And this inability to provide timely aid is definitely something that is very fixable and would you argument that also the larger political question of why the people are fleeing and preventing this continuing plight is also fixable if russia and the regime were to believe that their jets that are bombing bombing civilians and are displacing them and this immense fire power that is allowing the Regime Forces to advance on the ground, if they knew that they have a very high likelihood of being shot down, then i believe they will stop doing so. Right now russia and turkey are kind of facing each other and the balance of power does not favor any side significantly. But turkey should not be standing alone in this situation. Yes, turkey made many mistakes in syria and it led to its own isolation and in a way throughout very mistaken policies in the history of the war. But at the end of the day, currently turkey is the only force trying to prevent unsuccessfully from the regime continuing to advance and displace more and more people toward the border. Turkey is not allowing people to cross. You have to pay for smuggling to get across and this is expensive for the majority of the population. So people are stuck. They are unable to cross to turkey. But if the regime continues to advance, reaches closer to the border and people are faced with the possibility of being shot by Turkish Border police or capture add live by the regime, i think their calculations will change. Particularly lets keep in mind that the rebel groups inside idlib have the capability to take down they have tanks, if they have desperate enough and their families are desperate enough if they believe they will face large scale massacre and this is the real prospect and triggering the turkish increasing presence in idlib and in an attempt to hold the offensive. Please. What elizabeth mentioned, the term of the u. N. Caught by surprise because of this large number of displaced people, actually the u. N. Have known for at least a year and a half this is happening and it is based on the understanding between turkey and iran and russian and their understanding. The u. N. Office in which will coordinate the cross border relief from turkey to Northern Syria in idlib warned the ngos one year and a half ago this may be happening and you have to deal with a number of one to 1. 5 Million People that will be displaced. The u. N. , in spite of knowing this, will happen and were apparently caught by surprise and they only have 30 of the Emergency Fund to deal with these people displaced. Even tents, as arwa reported on cnn yesterday and the day before, going into regular or makeshift camps, right. The reason you have more than 600 makeshift camp and a small province with 1,250 camps and some have 50 tents and some have 500. And most dont have the u. N. Tents because the u. N. Has made it difficult and complicated to even get tents inside of syria. Make it very complicated and to get these things. So the u. N. Did not was not caught by surprise. Actually this is due to the lack of leadership. Turkey was not caught by surprise because they know this is happening and now it is blaming all kinds of stuff. And the International Community was not caught by surprise because they know that is happening. The main reason is because syria is not a priority to all of these parties. The millions of syrians are not priority for going to try to turn your microphone on. Can you speak more to that. What was the failure on at least when it comes to the United Nationss to respond in a timely manner to this . When you have a rice is like this, like what is happening in idlib or syria, or millions of people who are affected, millions of human beings, not koalas or cats or dogs, who are displaced seven and eight times. You would expect u. N. Observers to be there and there are no u. N. Observers in the worst catastrophe in the 21st century and in the 20th century since the second world war. The u. N. Secretary general should be in idlib right now. He wasnt for the bahamas for the last hurricane. He went to mozambique and went to libya and bangladesh, why is he not contemplating visiting idlib. And he has all of the resources to be there standing in the border or going into idlib. And i could guarantee to him that the syrian children in the camps will protect them. They could extinguish the sound of bomb or missile or the sound of shelling. Although they are not able to go to school. Because most of the schools were destroyed. So why hes not there. Why hes not calling or shaming russia and shaming china for not doing anything to stop the bombing of civilians in syria. Weve been having 67 hospitals in idlib being bombed by the russian regime and the Syrian Regime and nothing has happened. The border inquiry is making these investigation about bombings secret. The secretary general himself is trying to keep the results of the investigation secret, not making it public because he does not want to shame russia in the public because you cares more about the reelection than solving the worst crisis that were going through. Tell us some of the things that the doctors on the ground in idlib are telling you. They are there to serve the community and this is their humanitarian duty. Theyre shortage of iv fluid, of antibiotics and with this last wave of displacement with the northwest of aleppo where you have most of the pharmaceuticals production, you will expect now to have a huge shortage of medications for chronic diseases, diabetes, hypertension, copd, asthma, disease and cancer. And we think in crisis like this that most people will die for bombs or die from Infectious Diseases but actually most people die because of chronic diseases, because of heart attack in the middle of the night and you cant go to the hospital. Because of pregnant lady bleeding and cannot go to the hospital because there is no doctor to treat your child who has a flu or who has diarrhea and that is what happens in syria. Now with the lack of shortage of medications for chronic diseases you would expect even more for the 3 Million People trapped in syria. And doctors dont have salaries. They are supported by ngos and they have to deal with the shelter and the evacuation and they have to deal with the with the heating. Winter in idlib is not tropical area. For people think that syria is tropical. It is not. It is very cold. Winter is harsh. A child who is 4 months old froze to death. Imam,ellina, 18 moz froze to death. It was very cold. When i was in idlib, i had to wear multiple players just to stay warm in the car which was heated. And it is cold. And people are going to extreme things to keep kids warm in tents. They are burning off i olive pits, you have olive and the olive oil in the middle east, the best is in idlib. They are burning shoes. They are burning plastic bags and garbage to keep children warm. Spite of that you have people freezing to death because it is harsh and the local is not as good as the u. N. Provided. Bringing heaters into the tents. Definitely. And suffocation of carbon monoxide. Charles, lets talk about the border with turkey which turkey shut down several years ago. They already have some 3. 5 million refugees in the country. They clearly felt like that was enough and not letting anybody across and at the same time we have erdogan making real noises about the possibility of a significant military incursion and turkish troops are already inside of syria and you talked about some of the fighting that has taken place between the two sides. What are what is the risk of this escalating significantly between the turks and the syrian and the russians . I think it depends how much of a risk the turks are willing to take. As i say, my perception is it is for erdogan and political future for the partys future and if theyre willing to take enough of a ri of a risk, yes, there is risk of escalation. I think we know the turkish russian relationship is important for both sides and about much more than idlib. The turks and russians signed a huge gas pipeline deal which neither side want to see eroded because of an issue like idlib which to put it in cold terms isnt necessarily the Biggest Issue on russian or turkey agenda when it comes to the bilateral relationship but im surprised how hard russia has played this. My sort of understanding of the situation six months ago is that we would have already come to a compromised solution whereby the russians and say that is it, there is no movement. It would have been a terrible humanitarian situation. But we wouldnt be in a place where we were seeing the line continue to move north like we are now. So i think all of that together does risk escalation. I think turkey has no choice but to gradually escalate which is undoubtedly what weve seen over the last week or so. They have probably nearly triple the amount of soldiers just in idlib which is 3 of syrian territory than all of the United States troops in all of eastern syria. Theyre scale of the deployed military equipment, heavy weapons, far outweighs anything the United States has in syria. In 3 of the map. And so if turkey wanted to get serious about this, it could do it very swiftly. The key question in peoples minds was, or the key assumption would be that turkey would do that and do everything to avoid a war with the russians or a fight with the russians. That is clearly that calculation has clearly changed with firing shoulder launched missiles at syrian at russian aircraft yesterday is a big gamechanger in terms of the calculus that is being placed into all of this. So really i think were dealing with an unprecedented situation. The Largest Standing Army in nato with highly sophisticated equipment stuck in a complicated war zone facing off against the russians who are playing as hard nosed as you could possibly be. And against the Syrian Regime which will never compromise willing on anything. And as i say, given the stakes for turkey in particular, i just find it hard to imagine they wont. And the big question which frankly i cant answer is if and when that does happen, how will the russian respond. They will not want to be humiliated on the world stage. They have, as i say, a trouble some ally in the Syrian Regime for nine years has compromised on nothing. Were all hoping for some form of a compromise. It is not a good one for the 3. 5 Million People stuck in idlib. My only hope is that it is less bad than where were headed now which is really as bad and distonian as you could get. How much do you think it has exacerbated the crisis in italy. The u. S. Doesnt have a great deal of influence in northwestern areas. When donald trump decided to cut off support to our four or five years partner in the armed opposition, that seeded our credibility in the northwestern corner of the country and also our influence. Since then the russian government has effectively blocked us entirely out of the northwestern air space with three small strike exceptions in the last three years. By my count. And so, yes, there is a sense to which there is an understanding, whether it is in moscow or or damascus or iran and that the u. S. Is weak and with a president that doesnt give a you know what about syria. And i think that has emboldened all of the players to play hard again, to play more cold blooded about the way they deal with the issues. Including turkey. But quite trankly when it comes to the russians being involved, they do control the air space and the s400 is not to be messed with. That is an added disadvantage for turkey. Turkey has to maneuver a very complicated environment to do what were all, i think from a humanitarian perspective, hoping it will do. Which is force a stalemate or a ceasefire. But the risks are are incredible. Much more significant i think than any geopolitical crisis in syria over the last nine years. Elizabeth i was going to ask you a question about and who is in charge and what the dynamic is on the ground. But i do want to get to questions from the audience. And this one speaks to that. Is there an alternative to either hgs control or regime control of idlib or do people on the ground want to see and would the International Community be willing to talk to so first with regards to what the population wants, they are definitely not fans of hasham which is the Jihadist Group or Pragmatic Group that is largely the dominant power in idlib on the ground. The support for hgs was quite limited before sand now with the military losses and the widespread belief that i think is a Conspiracy Theory that hgs is handing off territory and there is a secret deal and this is widespread and therefore they lost even more of the support that they once enjoyed. Theyre also militarily, them and particularly so even more radical jihadist like they have lost so much of their man power. It is just astounding. Theyve lost hundreds of fighters over the past since the start of the offensive. So they are militarily weaker. I think that the only alternative that exists right now to those hgs and the regime is basically turkish control and were seeing that right now turkey has about 15,000 troops inside of idlib. By the level of military preparedness, they definitely outmatch hgs right now but turkey has no interest in starting a war with hgs. It would be vulnerable to attack by this group. And there is coordination between them and intelligence cooperation. Hgs has helped turkey track down isis cells operating in idlib. They were trying to capture baghdadi before the u. S. Managed to locate him and assassinate him. So i dont think that turkey is interested in launching such a conflict. I think that therefore hgs is there to stay. But with engagement and with pressure and right now turkey has immense leverage basically if it was if the area collapses and we should expect large scale massacres, with this immense leverage turkey has the ability to to not dictate but significantly instruct hgs or significantly influence what hgs cl chooses to do. There is rumors about hgs absolving itself and these have not panned out repeatedly. The Group Leadership is determined to hold on to idlib. They see it as the governance of the territory as as their project now. Theyve abandoned the hope of regime change and liberating damascus so for them it is important to cling on to this territory. I think that they are hgs is much more willing than previously engage with westerners, with outsiders. Just this past week their director for media insisted on having his name mentioned in an article when i quoted him, even after i told him that i have israeli citizenship and previously the spokesperson of another rebel group who spoke to me got fired because i mentioned his name in the article. So they are definitely shifting in their conduct. And theyre interested in engagement but at the same time are very determined to hold on to power and this, of course, also means for the population of idlib, highly authoritarian conduct in an attempt to stifle any kind of dissent. I dont want to interrupt. But on this, if you could envision and try to envision the least bad of all of the feasible scenarios on the table, then you start to see something which i think both of us have called before the gazaification ofid lick which is some kind of established agreed status quo and from a humanitarian perspective it is still a catastrophic thing to consider. And there is a reason why you call it the gaza scenario. It is not just because you have semi besieged territory, very densely populated and heavily dependent on International Aid and the with question is who will govern it and if that is the right word. And think turkey knows that. The new observation posts along the m4 they are clearly trying to draw a red line on the map to indicate that they may be willing to agree on that basically cutting idlib in half and leaving the northern half under turkish and hgs control. Turkey would have no option but to accept hgs being the govern, the salvation government would assume the mantle of that territory with or without turkish groups on the ground. My understanding of turkish policy isnt that hgs is a friend. It is more that they have established themselves as the only organization for right or wrong who is capable of using an iron fist to keep the internal dynamics of idlib more stable than the opposition rivals have in past. I would imagine, therefore, that over the longterm turkey would as elizabeth said seek to use leverage to negotiate some kind of a power sharing arrangement. The only other option on hgs table is the turkish message if you want to continue to be the only ruler of northern idlib, you know what will happen. The russians and the regime will never accept that as the longterm status quo so shared power with other civilian and potentially armed opposition actors under heavy turkish control or else. And i dont know if were going to get there. But of all of the feasible scenarios that is the least bad one that is on the table. And the last thing ill say and the reason why hgs is an interesting component is as i think theyve seen this coming for a long time. Privately theyve been engaged in a pr effort and reaching out to both of us and many others in the hope of getting westerners to interview them and give them exclusive interviews and give them a chance to present this new phase that their trying to sell to the world for precisely this reason. That at one point the International Community will have to accept in hgss eyes this kind of scenario as better than seeing all of northwestern syria conquered and smashed into the earth. Whether or not that will work is a whole another question. The International Crisis group just visited the leader of hgss and interviewed him for four hours. That is the first time any western organization has an on the record interview with the leader of the group. It is all part of the strategy. It is not paying off a great deal right now. But i think it exists for a reason. Doctor, can you try to answer that question . Knowing the province and the people as you do, is this a model that could work . No. When i spoke with people on the ground, they dont like hgs. They tolerate it because it has power and it has arms and it lost a lot of the credibility as elizabeth and charles mentioned because of the last advances of the regime and the fact that theyre not putting up a good fight. When you talk to syrians in general they dont think of idlib as an entity and other areas in syria as entity this reinforce the Conspiracy Theory that they believe they want to divide syria into different regions, this is for the kurds or the islamists or others and they still think it is one country and has to be united and should be an end to the crisis going through the United Nation Security Council resolution 2254 which spelled out the road to peace which means you should have political transition and you should have National Reconciliation that will allow the return of the refugees, 6 Million People and reconstruction of syria. Without that, then we will continue to suffer from what is aleppo and idlib and what is and raqqah for the longterm. One more important thing to mention. In 2013 i had a meeting with president obama in the white house before the before the gutta massacre and at that time i told him about what is happening in aleppo. And the and gave him a letter on behalf of the Syrian American doctors and i told him, mr. President , i believe that your legacy will be determined by what do you in syria. He laughed and he said, my legacy will be determined by also other things. I still think that his legacy is determined by what he did not do in syria. I think the legacy of President Trump also will be determined and shaped by what he does and he does not do in syria. And any next president. It is unfortunate that would be current debate among the Democratic Candidates, there is no question about syria in the many town Hall Meetings that theyve done. Yes, it is important to know who is the president of mexico. But it is also important to know what is idlib. So i think cnn and other Media Outlets should be asking this question, is this really representing the worst American Humanitarian crisis in the world that is affecting millions of people and our candidates should know or tweet about it. The only candidate among the six or seven candidates right now in the Democratic Party who tweeted about idlib is Pete Buttigieg a few weeks ago. So how come the whole world is suffering with this and our Democratic Candidates for the president s are not talking about idlib or syria. I see youre nodding, l elizabeth. I completely agree. And i think that when charles talked about the gazaification of idlib as being the best alternative around, it is important to understand that the alternative really is mass slaughter and mass site of refugees. This is why this is a better alternative. And if mass slaughter and mass slight of refugees is allowed to happen under trumps watch then this will define his legacy and youre absolutely right that obamas legacy started by what he hasnt done in syria and in Many Obama Administration officials reflect and write and say, yes, it was a mistake, it was a mistake to draw a line in the stand with the use of chemical weapons and that let the massacre in gutta happen in august of 2013 that killed over 1,400 people with sarin gas. And they reflect back and say, yes, we were wrong. Surely the people who are working in Trumps Administration dont want to reflect back in four years or two years when they are out of office and saying we should have done something but you know mass slaughter happened on our watch. A mass atrocity happened on our watch and we flew it was coming and it is evident that the regime will try to reconquer it and we did nothing to stop it. We made statements or tweets but we did not mobilize when we had the opportunity to do so. Charles, to what extent is it important that the regime complete this takeover if you will. You look at the map except for the kurdish area in the north east, you have one island that is idlib and the outside of the regime control, how important is it for assad to take it back . In logical terms, it is not all that important. In from assads point of view in principle terms, it is the most important thing that exists today. The principle as the sovereign of syria i have the right to take every inch of any territory and everything over the last nine years is to realize that vision. At any cost. To cleanse the country as he has said. And i think that is precisely what were seeing, exactly the same actics that weve seen develop everywhere else, siege, bombs as doctor sahloul said and giving civilians no other choice but to continue to flee. The reason why idlib is unprecedented because they have nowhere else to flee to now. Every other place, whether it is gutta or humps or southern syria, there was always an out or share else that people could flee to and in idlib there is just a locked down border with turkey. And that is why this is this is so unprecedented. But more broadly speaking and to insert this as another element of the conversation, from a sort of strategic perspective, the regime is extraordinarily stretched. Militarily they have taken huge casualties in the last few months. Well over 600 to 700 proregime fighters have died in the last months in idlib, including high number of Senior Officers which has more of an impact than losing foot soldiers alone. And there is a question in my mind as to how long the regime could sustain the losses and sustain the intensity of the campaign theyve been conducting, putting aside all of the other diplomatic equations. But even more broadly than that and putting aside the military dynamics, the regime hasnt had the man power for the last year and a half to place any kind of resource into southern syria. Southern when it was reconciled through surrender was meant to be the perfect example of reconciliation in syria from a russian perspective but yet in the 18 months since the regime has been incapable, not unwilling, of restoring any services in the south. Tribes and local communities are crowd sourcing on the internet for funds to build electricity for the bridges and towns. And beyond that the russians have been capable of only deploying 100 military police for all of southern syria to try to keep law and order and what is the result . An entirely new insurgency, a low level one but weve seen well over 350 attacks in the last year. Clear signs that southern syria is on a path towards new instability in the next year or two. And all because the regime simply doesnt have the capacity to rule over the territories or to control or to govern those territories that it is retaking. So to expect all of the resources for a tiny 3 of the map or now probably 2 of the map in a situation where at great expense is also strategically stupid. But, again, it tells you a lot about the regimes mentality. It doesnt give a you know what about the fate of people who it reasserts control over, it doesnt matter. Principle is what matters and telling the world that i Bashar Al Assad is the president of syria and there is nothing you can do about that and that is what is driving this. Did you the thinking of the regime and assad, being an older classmate of assad i have some way of understanding his thinking. Especially early in the crisis, he mentioned few things and hes a physician by the way. Hes a doctor. That justifies killing doctors. Ologist. So said there are millions of germs in syria that they need to be cleansed. So when were talking about 6. 5 million refugees and 7 Million People displaced in syria in his mind these are people that need to be cleansed, basically. These areas need to be depopulated. Many of the areas in hamas and even after the return to the control of the regime, people who were displaced from them were not allowed to go back. They were not to rebuild. Only a few people were allowed to go into it. So this is strategic and tactical thing done to the regime to depopulate the area considered or perceived as antagonist to the regime. Idlib has been anning to been antagonist to the regime and even to assad father. He said if you have a surgeon with blood on his hands, it doesnt mean that hes a murderer. It means he cut an area that is part of disease. So infected. So that is how we justify. And just a couple of days ago he had a speech that declared victory in northwest of aleppo because he recovered territory and he pledged to return every part of syria. So i think this will continue unfortunately. Unless he is pressured to accept certain terms. One of the major debates certainly among western countries is what to do with the foreign fighters and that really came up when when the first turkish incursion happened in northeastern syria and the talk about the foreign fighters and the isis prisoners held by the kurds. I do want to get to another audience question and to you, elizabeth. Broadly speaking when it comes to foreign jihadist fighters what treatment do you propose for the thousands of them who are fighting in, lets say, broadly in the northern part of syria and their families. So, i think it is important to distinguish between the northeast and northwest. In northeast they are in prisons. They are held by the sdf and also relatives who are living in camps, largely most of them in the whole camp and countries have the responsibility to repatriate these individuals, particularly the children, overwhelming majority of them are children. With regards to the men, there is a proposal by the Kurdish Administration to put them on trial in the northeast and then they will serve out the sentence in the west. This is a possible legally tricky solution because european countries, many of them do not have the laws that would allow to put people behind bars for a long time because there is no evidence about their crimes and it is difficult to collect. With regards to the situation in the northwest, in idlib, there are foreign fighters who exist there. Large contingent for example are Uyghur Muslims from china. We know what happens to Uyghur Muslims. And repatriating means basically mass executions in camps. The number of foreigners still operating in idlib is quite small. Because basically we saw the major split that occurred within the Islamic State of the iraq asham and saw soldiers with isis and now hgs largely in syria. There are some fighters there. They have not participated or plotted any foreign any attacks on foreign soil. And the small number who apparently have or were perceived to be a threat by the United States have been assassinated with hell fire missiles. I think it is probably the way to go. Basically people who are perceived to pose a threat can be assassinated inside idlib. But overall the foreign fighters who are there and as i said theyre numbers are small and decreasing rapidly. Because these units, these factions, the hardline jihadist fakes, there has been immense in the ranks in the latest offensive. Just earlier this week an entire uzbek unit was eliminated by russian air strike. So the presence in the northwest is quite limited. And they are focusing on fighting assad. If they are starting plotting Something Else and intelligence covers it, the u. S. Comes in and drones them. So im assuming they will just that seems to be the solution way to go. And definitely we shouldnt let hundreds of foreign fighters maybe in the maybe even thousands but in the low thousands, distract us from the fact that there are 3 million civilians there. We definitely should not pay the price for having these nut job come into the area by getting bombed and displaced from their homes. Charlie. I want to mention something about these type of questions. They are important definitely. But when the media focuses on these issues, the fact that you have tens or hundreds of terrorists and in some areas, basically people justify in their mind intentionally or unintentionally to let to let the other 3 million and a half exterminated. Our main thing right now in the United States and the west is the war against terrorism. So when we focus about the few and forget that 3. 5 million, and thats what people think. Ive been in places in the war that you have many terrorists. But at the same time you have a presence for the United Nations. We look at it logically. We defend human rights of these people, whether they are in palestine or yemen or other places. We do not treat syria the same for some reason. Were fedex aixated on presencew extremists. The assad regime and russians to use that as a pretext. Definitely. I had a meeting with a Russian Ambassador. I was showing him pictures of idlib. Im sorry, in aleppo. Women were conservative dressing. He was looking at i was showing him pictures bombed by his jets. He look at the picture of the women. These are isis he said. In their mind, everyone in idlib or aleppo is isis. They dont see they see russia today. Thats their source of information. If i may just to reiterate that. He makes an extremely important point. Yesterday the spokesman for the Operation Inherent resolve, the u. S. Led coalition to fight isis, did an interview with sky news in which he parroted literally the assad regimes talking points, which is what he said the Russian Ambassador told him. He was asked by the interviewer why whats going on in idlib and why is it important. His answer was, idlib is controlled by terrorists. What were seeing right now, this massi civilian slaughter i because terrorists continue. We will continue to see human suffering and a humanitarian crisis. Thats the perfect encapsulation of how to forget the 3. 5 Million People and think only of the three, four, 500 who are a problem but a problem that is very easy to deal with in comparison. Not really hearing the same from james jeffrey. You are not. Theres a division. The fact that the spokesman who really ought to have been coached before in how to deal with an interview on idlib said something that you literally could have copied and pasted and put in syrian state media is a really damaging thing. No surprise, its being covered all across syrian and riussian media. There has to be the context and the broader understanding. That has to im a ct guy at heart. My gut tells me to always look at the really bad guys. But having followed syria for nine years, i know full well that the situation in places like idlib are far more complicated and the priorities are totally different. Conducting a Campaign Like this actually ironically will probably strengthen extremist ideology. This gives a new blood, a new breathing force for the extremist ideology that has always said the world will give up on you, we are your own protectors, the west doesnt care about your lives and eventually this kind of an eventuality will happen. So to speak in that way and then to see this carry on is as bad as we could be in terms of pr policy, strategy. Yes. Hts for all their faults are currently focusing on governing idlib alone. A situation in which the regime and russia break into this area, take over it, you know, sherr they will kill a lot of the fighters along with civilians. Some of them will survive. Will transform from an entity thats in charge of governing a territory in quite a problematic matter but yet governing a territory, fixing roads, trying to provide the needs of millions of displaced people, they will have none of those responsibilities and will revert back to an insurgency, what we see isis insurgency, what we see. From a counterterrorism perspective, this kind of incursion into an area controlled by hts, which is just wants to be left alone. When there was a ceasefire prior to the start of the offensive, they carried out very few operations beyond the lines. It was often times in response to regime attacks. If they are left alone, they will not launch attacks. Going in, destroying everything, killing civilians in the process will distribute them across syria and also possibly into turkey. So from a count eerterrorism perspective, this doesnt make sense. We need to wrap up. We can go for another five, ten minutes. Excellent. What i wanted to follow up on the u. S. Perspective, given we are in washington and bouncing off of what you were saying about Pete Buttigieg the only talking about this in the nbc debate. Foreign policy was not raised at all, let alone syria specifically. James jeffrey, if you dont know, is the former ambassador who is the special representative for syria. Charles, to what extent do you think he has allowed voice in this administration and to what extent do you think the issue is bricking through to highest levels . I have Great Respect for jim, for ambassador jeffrey. He has put more energy into this role than i think any of his predecessors have for the last five years. A clear determination to continue to uphold the principals that the u. S. Embraced very early on in the Syrian Crisis. But he has, one, i dont want to speak for him, but he has one big challenge, which is that the president of the United States doesnt really have a foreign po policy. He doesnt know syria exists until he might potentially see it on fox news in the morning. So what we have seen primarily since ambassador jeffrey took on his role is that he has done many good things. He has done the right things. He has put energy into u. S. Policy on syria. Two or three times the president pulled the rug from under his feet, destroyed all of the progress he made diplomatically, military, in terms of sanctions or whatever and jim has had to start again. Ambassador jeffrey traveled with the support of secretary pompeo. He did, i think, in my view all of the right things, which was to lend nato rhetorical support to turkey, to encourage turkey to do to assert itself more strongly in idlib, to say you have our support as the United States 57and nato. The National Security adviser obrien went on tv and essentially said, United States isnt going to do anything about idlib. This isnt our mess. We dont have any resources to do this. Its not our business. Pulling the rug from under ambassador jeffreys feet as he was still there trying to negotiate with the turks to encourage them to do more in idlib. That continues to be the problem. Obama and his administration had huge faults, but there was a process. They took the wrong judgements, but there was a process. This administration, there is no process, theres no structure. The state department has a very good team. A very highly qualified team who works on syria, knows the issue back to front. They do not have the backing of the white house. That is a real, real shame. Because it has set back what could have been some progress over the last three years over and over and over again. If i may add to that, analysis which i completely address wita agree with, even though i disagree with many aspects if theres a policy of President Trump on syria, especially when it happens to closing our border to the Syrian Refugees, which i believe its shameful that we tolerated it and the muslim ban, of course, in the last year we had a handful of Syrian Refugees resettle in syria compared to 10,000 in 2015 or 2016. This is something that we really have to reflect on as a country. This is against all of our values that we build this country based on. Thats why i emigrated to the United States 30 years ago. We are a country that are based on values and principals that should not be different whether we have President Trump as a president or president obama as a president. But President Trump did few things in syria that they were right. I think he was supported by the public in the United States, whether democrats or republicans. When he put a red line on the use of chemical weapons and he punished assad regime for use. That was something that people supported. When he talked about the syrian children, that suffocated in the chemical weapon attack and he said that these are beautiful children, why they are to suffer, i mean, he cares about syrian children. Syrian children right now are freezing to death. There might be disconnect between the state department, which i believe trying to do the same thing, and the ears of President Trump. But for those who have the ears of President Trump, show him the pictures of syrian children freezing to death and tell him, do something. To prove that you have the upper hand in syria, not putin. Right now you have this cnn today broke the news that theres this news about russia trying to interfere with our election in 2020. Supporting President Trump. Of course, he disagrees publically on this issue. Lets prove that putin doesnt have the upper hand in the war. Syria is the entry of the of putin to the war and to the middle east. President trump can make a difference in syria and can prove to the world that he has the upper hand, not putin. If were talking about the dynamics within the trump administration, we should note the top middle east official on the National Security council was removed and moved over to do energy. Right now, theres no senior director for the middle east in the white house. Why dont we finish up where we started, and that is on the humanitarian crisis in idlib. If i could ask each of you, if theres a singular thing that the u. S. And or the International Community can do to alleviate the suffering of what is now a Million People who have been displaced and many more within the province who live there, what would it be . We can talk about money. Always money helps. I think president obama used to pledge millions of dollars every now and then to deal with the Syrian Crisis and other countries follow our lead because we are perceived as the leader of certain moral things, including humanitarian assistance, whether its syria or yemen or other places. President trump can pledge supporting the 900,000 people who are displaced in syria and other countries, especially countries in the region that he is friends with, saudi arabia and kuwait and united arab emirates, which sported supportisupport i supporting. Thats the first thing. Whats more important than this, which i think this is moral mandate, is to care about syrians. I mentioned a story of children who wanted to be doctors and architects. We can give them this chance if we care about them like we care about our children. I think that as the doctor said, the money is needed and will help. The Current Situation is untenable. Idlib is becoming a sort of holding pen for people who are not able to finance smuggling into turkey or too poor to smuggle themselves into turkey or they are too scared to go and live under assad regime control. That is the overwhelming majority of the population. That is present in idlib right now. This is the situation that cannot continue to exist. This is basically a situation of gaza but way worse in terms of humanitarian implications of it. The First Priority should be a ceasefire. Its more important than money. So people stop fleeing. The people are able to return to their homes. Living in a tent longterm is not a solution. There are people who have been living in idlib in tents since 2012 and 2013. This is not something we should accept for these people. At the least, the current lines of the conflict need to be stabilized, a ceasefire needs to be put in place. The u. S. Has at buithe ability threaten regime and russia that if they continue carrying out strikes, that their jets will be downed. I believe that in such a scenario, it does not require boots on the ground. It does not require significant intervention. In a seine cenario, turkey will the leverage to impose a ceasefire and allow people to return to their homes. There are towns that are still not in regime control but are empty. All these towns are empty because the population expects the regime to advance on them. They fled already. If a state ceasefire is stabilized, people will be able to return and live in their homes and work their fields and sustain themselves without having to depend on International Aid. In the longterm, we, of course, need a solution for syria that would allow people to return to their homes and live in them. You mentioned the northern these children from northern area. This is under regime control. These people do not feel safe to return and live under the regime in its current configuration. The regime even needs to change or it needs to change its behavior in a way that would allow millions in idlib who are not from the area and also people who are refugees and live outside of the country to be able to return and live in safety. We have seen year after year we have snowfall on syrian refugee camps in lebanon, on the mountains. People live in tents year after year covered in snow, dieing and freezing to death. They are not returning to live under regime control because they know what awaits them. They know they will arrested, tortured. This needs to change so people are able to return home. Living in displacement is not a solution. If i may just one point about focusing on syria and paying attention. We always blame our policymakers. But we forget that we are society of organizations and civic organizations and congregations that we did not Pay Attention to syria the way we dealt with bosnia or rwanda or south africa or other kree s crisis. A couple years ago the president wrote an article why syria needs an agequakearthquake. He said in one week after the ear earthquake, in haiti they received more donations than six or seven years of the Syrian Crisis. Whether they are catholic or evangelical or jewish or muslims. We had a press conference with a few muslim organizations that talked about the syria crisis for the first time in the last seven years in the congress. Congress has a responsibility. Yesterday, they tweeted about idlib. A representative who is republican tweet about idlib, about syria and whats happening in syria. We had history in congress where you had a senator from wisconsin who every day in the morning he went to the senate floor and spoke about genocide for 11 years. He had 3,250 speeches about ratifying the genocide treaty until it was ratified. Someone in the congress can do that. The congress has also responsibility to push President Trump to do something on syria. Then the media. We are a country of people. Whats happening in terms of apathy is reflection of apathy of leaders in the United States. We have to reflect on that and change that. I will be quick. I know we are tight on time. We have heard a list of recommendations. I agree with all of them. One thing, the United States has under trump more so than under obama drawn a red line in the sand as the doctor said in terms of the use of chemical weapons. If you think about that, we have essentially made a statement that if any chemical weapon is used and even if it kills one person, just one person, we will conduct military strikes or some form of action. Then you compare it to the scale of whats happening in idlib, it makes our policy look utterly absurd. And i think the u. S. Needs to get its moral compass right and its perspective what we care about and why and get out of this, i think, convenient political equation where a very rare use of chemical weapons these days is the only thing that will make us care or act in syria. Beyond that, i think we need to get over this westlessness idea that we only care about things that happen inside our homeland. Its the only thing that matters. If you listen to the democrats, forever wars, never ending wars, bring troops home, the trend here is we dont care about the rest of the world no matter how bad it is. Why . Because theres nothing good we can do. Quite frankly, thats not true. Were not talking about sending 300,000 troops into syria and regime change. We are talking about, for example, using the fact that the United States is the most powerful country in the world by a country mile to generate a diplomatic coalition. That puts unprecedented pressure on the russians within the u. N. , the International Community, to stop committing war crimes on an hourly basis. At minimum, just use diplomacy. Then beyond that, as again the doctor said, when we had etsuna world mobilizes in a way we rarely see. Why isnt the world doing that . It doesnt have to go through the u. N. , i assume. Im not an expert on the mechanics of humanitarian response. The United States and a coalition of the willing could be flying supplies into turkey and trucking them over a turkishcontrolled Border Crossing to assist idps. But were not. Why do we do it with an earthquake or tsunami and we dont when a Million People or two Million People are stuck in tints or in open fields right now in the idlib winter . Important questions and thoughts. Hopefully, we will see action soon on all of this. Thank you so much. Thank you all for coming. [ applause ] sunday on after words, former deputy National Security adviser kt mcfarland gives insight into the political process and the trulmp administration. Shes interviewed by columnist danielle mclaughlin. Demographically, geographically, socially, economically, we are constantly reinventing ourselves not just as individuals but as a nation. Government by its nature is stuck. It is a status quo institution. This is how we have always done things. We will always do this we will do things the same way. Its people who get stuck. Its the status quo. America is set up to have these revolutions. Political revolutions. We had one in the beginning. The american revolution. Ever since then, we have mostly had the revolutions that played out in the ballot box. Watch kt mcfarland with her book sunday night at 9 00 p. M. Eastern on after words on book tv. Follow the federal response to the coronavirus at cspo cspan. Org coronavirus. Find briefings, hearings with Public Health officials and interviews. Review the latest events at any time. Next, a discuss of the u. S. Indoepacific strategy and how it could address chinas efforts to get our countries to be dependent on them. Held by the hudson institute, this is an hour and a half. Thank you very much for coming. This report, strategy in indopacific. Thanks to the contributors, it has happened. I appreciate your support in the participation today. We with like to thank japan foundation, center for Global Partnership for their support of this. The opinions in the report belong to the authors. Today after i