Simply focusing on case studies. Today we are going to talk about bill clinton and george w. Bush. Next time we will talk about barack obama and donald trump. Said, we usually have some announcements. There will be so little to talk about when we talk about donald trump. I worry about the silence. Wth bill clinton and george on the docket today, there are a few things that warrant just some quick musing at the start. The first of which, which always takes some kind of older folks like us have to acclimate our psyches to realize that, to you all, bill clinton genuinely is a figure of history. None of you have an active recollection, or even a childhood recollection of bill clinton in office. Which actually is kind of amazing. Even w is kind of a hazy figure to you. None of you all were older than probably was anybody older than 10 when w left office . No. Even w is kind of a childhood figure to you all. That just in itself just gives a sense of, especially for us, how quickly history can move. And how quickly things pass from current day to historical. A dimension of that that i have been thinking about too is we are in the midst of this motion and general show generational angst and change ok boomer is prevalent in the culture. I remember truman. [laughter] the thi tt is so striking to me about that, is that bill clinton, who now fills feels in 1992 and the transition from bush 41 to bill clinton, it was much kind of like this generational moment that we are in now with millennials and boomers. This moment when the baton really changed hands. Bill clinton, kind of an archetypal boomer. Clinton and w born just a month apart in 1946. 41, archetypal member of the greatest generation. At the time, it felt like this burst of energy and momentum, and change, very selfconsciously for clinton. It was a lot like 1960 when jfk takes office. The first president born in the century after eisenhower. In its own way, not unlike 1901 when teddy roosevelt, much younger than william mckinley, takes over and there is this burst of energy, enthusiasm momentum. And then the thing that is also difficult in the category of musings for you all to capture in your minds, is how different the world was in 1992. The cold war has ended. In the midst of a small recession, but not a grievous one. There was this general atmospheric sense of optimism, almost easy optimism in a way that is very hard for us to quite calibrate in our minds right now. Just given the state of the world. That prevailed all during clintons presidency, in part because of him, and in part just because of things that were going on. Certainly the climate that w inhabited when he was elected, that is why 9 11 was such a shock to the country. And such a shock to him. He thought he was going to be a domestic president that got to just focus on an era of easy progress. Obviously that has changed so much. That was what the world felt like probably in 1992, when bill clinton came along. So, remarkable to think that for us, this is a figure of history. Interesting to reflect on the generational change that was a foot right then, that we are at the tail end right now. So strange to think about how different the world felt, and how much more optimistic once upon a time. Lets talk about bill clinton growing up. What we have tried to do with each president in each case study is talk about their background a little bit. We are always interested to find out what you think about what heir growing up and how it mightve impacted their presidency in some way. What sends out to you . His work ethic. Just always having that feeling of waiting to become president , and working his way through school from georgetown, to going to oxford in england, and yale. Working,ely see him and ambitious and some of the stuff he tried to pass Like Health Care and other stuff like that. Another thing worth mentioning is that he grew up in a middleclass family. Both of his parents were traveling salesman. When he was growing up, there were still some segregation. We were transpiring into an era that united the country. What i found astonishing is that both his parents, despite racial stillns in america, they went to other ethnicity groups. Also he went to Catholic School as a young kid. He may have gone to Catholic School but perhaps did not absorb all the teachings. [laughter] anything else . [indiscernible] that is important. We have seen other president s have difficult relationships with their fathers. When we talked about Richard Nixon and Lyndon Johnson for instance. For clinton, what he saw in his home growing up. The kind of abuse and arguments and everything. That had to have some impact on him. His attempt as a young person to try and negotiate the differences between the adults in his life, to try to handle that. I think if you read some of the literature about children who grew up in alcoholic homes, some of them develop a certain attitude about how to try to mediate conflicts. Too, think historically,to the thing about growing up in 1946 like clinton and w, he grew up completely under the shadow of the modern presidency. The presidency is this august, incredibly powerful office. That was just an ever present reality in the life of clinton and george bush when they were growing up, which is different than prior president s. [indiscernible] i could see how that transpires because he was more of a centric candidate. He always tried to negotiate with republicans, and fact he actually was the first president since 1969 to get a budget passed. Another aspect is kennedy [indiscernible] that kind of also transpired to the presidency. Anything else about clintons growing up in arkansas . [indiscernible] it kind of pushed him to find that more moderate sense and be the new democrat. What about his political career . I think he modernized the Democratic Party, i think he made it so it wasnt i think before it was a bit more like businesslike and i think he modernized it. He brought more middleclass people into the Democratic Party. I know he was known in the party as the comeback kid because he did change it a lot. In that vein, a thing certainly to think about. It is a notable difference between george w. Bush and clinton. One of these phenomenons that we talk about plenty over the course of the fall, is clinton not born into affluence. Born into poverty. W born into tremendous wealth and privilege, and it is just a good reminder of the fact that those who have become president have come from all different types of backgrounds. Your observations about his trying to change the Democratic Party remember what you read about his leadership at the Democratic Leadership Council . Before his election, republicans had won five of six president ial elections and a country where there were more democrats and republicans. Than republicans. The Democratic Leadership Council tried to move the democratic Leadership Party to the center of the political spectrum. He tried during parts of his presidency to do that. Today, plenty of concern that the Democratic Party of 2019, 2020 has shifted too far to the left. The Republican Party has shifted too far to the right. Similar during the late 1970s and 1980s as bill clinton was becoming politically active. That there was a concern that the party of mcgovern, who lost the 1972 election in a landslide, had shifted too far to the left. Clinton, along with especially other southern democrats, worked hard to try to create structures and policy positions that shifted the party more towards the middle. Even today, mayor bloomberg Just Announced his presidency. He is more in the center. There is a shift going back towards that center in the Democratic Party, because they are getting a lot of people concerned. An individual so far to the left like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders could defeat president trump. I have seen in the debate, they are pushing back to the left more and trying to get support. We talked about president ial elections in an earlier class. We pretty much covered the 1992 election and the disadvantages George Herbert walker bush had in terms of people being unhappy with his decision to abandon his promise not to raise taxes, and the state of the economy, and clinton having some real advantages in that election. Lets talk about bill clintons first two years in office. An interesting factoid about the 1992 election. Think regionally for a minute. Remember, a threeway race. Bush, bush 41, l , ross perot. What part of the country were all three of them from . They were all from the south. Yes, they were all from the south. Think about how striking it would be if we had an election in the next cycle or two where everyone was from one part of the country. Especially from the south. Lets talk about those tough first two years in office for bill clinton. Some of the achievements, some of the shortcomings. Some of the politics coming out of that. Withthink one thing Foreign Policy, he kept having to deal with the massacre in rwanda. And the United States not intervening soon enough. Also, the ethnic cleansing in bosnia. And those countries too. With Foreign Policy, he wasnt that great. I think when you think about the balkans, one of the legacies of the Clinton Presidency is, even though he did not have full congressional authorization, he eventually did take action in the bosnia crisis. Later the kosovo crisis. In each case, by military and diplomatic intervention, it put an end to ethnic cleansing. In his firstccords that first term. That was a lasting legacy. You could say that he had with Foreign Policy in north ireland. The good friday accords. That settlement existing to this day. As you read in newspapers, part of the debate in the United Kingdom regarding brexit is what to do about the borders there with northern ireland. Even though there was all that burst of energy when clinton was elected, a generational change, the politics of the era i think are marked by the pushback against him. For me, people in the Republican Party. For many conservatives in the country. For older americans, particularly for older republicans who had five or six president ial victories. Many people did not see the Clinton Presidency as legitimate. They talked about his evading the draft. They talked about marijuana use. Things like that. For many people on the right, there was immediately contempt for bill clinton. Particularly when you look at the rise of talk radio. Personalities on talk radio would unrelentingly go after both bill clinton and Hillary Clinton, leading to stories about people being killed mysteriously, people disappearing mysteriously. You had the very sad suicide of vince foster, a clinton friend. In the first year of his presidency. Accusations on talk radio that somehow the clintons were behind that. So politically, he inherited a Great Movement against him. We have talked at other points about this concept of, the Permanent Campaign. The way that, getting in the in theand crescendoing 1980s, but reaching a point of perfection of the art in the 1990s, politics became ever present in the act of governing. Once upon a time it was not the case. We talk all the time about some things that are the same ever since america was founded, and some things that have changed with regards to the presidency. The Permanent Campaign would be a great example of something that is different. And had a marked effect on the Clinton Presidency. Certainly his administration participated in it, and very willfully. But the idea that once upon a time, politics was about elections, and an election would occur and politics would not completely stop, but there would be a genuine and bona fide effort to try and work across differences and build consensus a little bit outside of the political lights. Differentdvent of means of communication, quite literally cabletv, it became easier to continue to mount the campaign, even once an election was finished. Clinton himself, and his administration and political apparatus, perfected that art. In the same moment, the republicans were really perfecting the art as well. They never missed a moment to critique him or find wedge issues that could derail him from aspirations he may have politically, policywise. Similarly, the Clinton White house was working against the Republican Congress in the same way. Lets talk about some early missteps in the first months of his presidency that really meant he had no honeymoon. Do you remember reading about any of those problems . Some early decisions and appointment announcements that gave him a lot of bad press . Repealed thely, he ability for lgbtq members to join the military. He got a lot of pushback from congress, and what ended up happening was he tried to negotiate with congress and thats where you get the dont ask, dont tell policy. That is a pushback from congress saying, stepping back on the politics. Still transitioning from a very conservative time to more lenient to the liberal aspect of social issues. He didnt actually repeal their ability to serve, he made an announcement that would make it possible for them to officially serve. There was great pushback from the military and key people in congress. He was keeping a campaign promise. He did that early on, and maybe in terms of what you know about attitudes today, seems like 1000 years ago. Public opinion has changed so much on this issue. Back in 1993, a very different set of attitudes existed. By doing that so early, you get to be pushback, and then his decision to adopt something called dont ask, dont tell, which was defeating the Gay Community who wanted an open opportunity to serve, and people opposed to them serving. It turned out to be a disaster to him politically. What about some appointments that created great embarrassment . This goes back to the issue we talked about one day in terms of president ial transition periods. The importance of clearly vetting people and finding out about the individuals you are appointing. What happened with the appointments to the Attorney Generals Office . Which ironically ties into a controversial issue we have today regarding immigration. To berst two appointments attorney general, the individuals had to withdraw when it turned out they had employed as nannies individuals who were illegal immigrants. , the connect the dots Permanent Campaign and appointment process, republicans realized it was a chance to find chinks in the armor so to speak, and embarrass the president , early on. It is a similar thing that democrats have done to republicans as well. But in a different era, it may be political appointees might not have gotten as much intense political scrutiny as what was happening in 1993. In terms of the organization of the white house, i think you have read about how early on, were rather chaotic. Meetings would go on forever, schedules were constantly messed up. Early on, one democratic member of Congress Talking to a another democratic member of congress said, if you are unhappy about an announcement from bill clinton today, dont worry about it, he might change his view tomorrow. There was no strong chief of staff at that time. No discipline process. That comes later in his administration. He got a lot of bad press for that. Keep keep in mind the Historical Context there. Republicans have been relentlessly holding the white house, with just a couple exceptions, since the days of Richard Nixon. It was republicans that really created the concept of the modern chief of staff. Jimmy carter in 1976 had back on the idea of the need for a chief of staff, and wanted to try to run things a little bit differently. Ultimately, that did not work out so well for him. He used more of a routine chief of staff model. Bill clinton is the first democrat elected president other than jimmy carter, all the way back to lbj. The chief of staff model that eisenhower had used so well, and reagan had mastered, was just not quite in the dna of the tookratic party would it the white house in 1992. Embarrassments, some of them driven by disorganization, eventually prompted clinton to change his mind and to start to embrace the strong form chief of staff model. That is what has endured through today for both parties, republicans and democrats. Again with pressure donald trump being interestingly wary of the strong chief of staff model. Before we get to some of the political defeats of his first two years in office, lets talk about some early policy victories for bill clinton in those first two years. Nafta. The signing of nafta viewed the signing of nafta. That is right. From the readings i got was that al gore went on larry king and debated ross perot. The arguments they were having got more support from the public. Going back to that new democrat idea that he had of free markets, which goes traditionally against democrats like lyndon b. Johnson and fdr. In terms of trade. The nafta victory was purchased with great republican support and significant democratic opposition. It was proposed by George H W Bush and clinton pursued it and it was an early victory for his administration. Like some things with bill clinton and his administration, by and large to most americans, seemed like a good thing. It has subsequently, like free trade in general, begun to be eyeed with a much more wary by the country. Any other policy decisions that were successful . Going back to Foreign Policy. When Saddam Hussein tried to assassinate, had a plot to assassinate president bush, he did not act on it. An airstrike on intelligence in iraq. While there is politics that divide the two [indiscernible] that incident is one of a series of things that ultimately brought george bush senior, bush 41, and bill clinton to the point of being genuinely good friends. These two people who were hot political adversaries, losing a president ial election is pretty tough for the soul. Wound up being genuine friends later in life. It was a remarkable thing. And with great democratic support he managed to get through Congress Something that congress had passed and George Herbert walker bush had vetoed, and that was the family leave act. The United States being the only wealthy, industrial country in the world that does not provide an Extensive Program for family members who have children to have leave and get paid. The act did not require that people who took leave to get paid, but at least it gave them leave. If you worked in an area with a certain number of employees. That was eight reward to a longtime democrat platform position. Anything else . [indiscernible]. Explain i know gun control laws. You have in the Clinton Administration a ban on assault weapons. Things continue to get debated on that, because eventually that ban was not renewed. One other thing. Deficit reduction. Remember, clinton had campaigned on a big middleclass tax cut. But the economy was out of the recession. The Federal Reserve was more concerned about the deficit. Clinton put to congress a controversial proposal to raise taxes on the wealthiest americans and cut spending in some areas. That passed on a purely partisan vote. Not cheney excuse me, dick cheney, al gore in the senate had to break the tie vote. That act infuriated republicans because it involved increasing taxes, but it is important to his presidency later on, because it helped reduce the deficit he had already inherited. To put things in a macro historical perspective, when we talk about eisenhower, you probably remember that one of the things was especially relevant about eisenhower was, was that he came in the wake of all of fdrs reforms and social programs. The Republican Party at that point was very tempted to just actively oppose things like social security, and the expansion of the federal government in general. And eisenhower, a republican, and his administration, chose to essentially embrace the innovations that the fdr administration had made. And acquiesce and even enthusiastically acknowledge that america now had a large federal government. The fact that an Opposition Party had embraced, the republicans had embraced that democratic idea, went a long way to essentially locking in the idea for generations to come that the federal government was going to be a large operation. Engaged in lots of social endeavors as well as more classic National Security endeavors. Similarly, bill clinton comes in the wake of the reagan revolution. The effort to significantly reduce taxes, the effort to at least control the growth of the federal government, especially with regards to social programs. Bill clinton, the first democrat to be in office since that reagan revolution, similarly like with eisenhower, essentially embraced the reagan revolution. A democrat, rather than taking office and immediately try to swell the federal government and instantaneously raise taxes dramatically, took a more middle path. That, interestingly enough, like with eisenhowers embrace of fdr policies or policy framework, clintons embrace of the reagan policy framework has essentially been the default setting for america subsequently. Except one exception involving his greatest political defeat in the first few years, health care. He hoped to be the president who would provide the United States with a comprehensive, universal system of health care coverage. To join much of the rest of the world. He appointed his wife Hillary Clinton to lead that effort, and it leads to total defeat. Why was it defeated . How was it defeated . What went wrong . Because for bill clinton, i think for him, that in his mind wouldve been the crowning achievement as president. To be able to do that. To succeed where other president s had failed. What politically went wrong . Going into it, his staff advised him not to come up because he campaigned for National Service and welfare reform, not health care. They warned him going into it. The 1994 elections. Where he had to compromise with republicans. [indiscernible] this failed effort allowed republicans to paint him as a typical democrat. Not a new democrat. Think of the politics of it. A Large Commission that met under conditions of secrecy. So that even democrats in congress were in many cases cut out of the loop. They had their own ideas, and instead, this commission headed by his wife, develops a complicated plan, 1300 pages long, that involves a combination of some marketplace forces, all kinds of government regulations, managed competition. A plan few people can understand. And immediate fierce opposition to it. Even though at first Public Opinion was sympathetic, the ads organized by a coalition of Insurance Industry people, the , help tond louise ads erode support for that. And eventually it is defeated. Category of the Permanent Campaign, these were ads by Republican Forces appealing to the american people. It was not just a conflict within the halls of congress that ultimately defeated the Health Care Reform aspirations. It was the Permanent Campaign being waged across the country and over the airwaves that eroded the support too. The commission seemed to exclude major stakeholders in the health care industry. A major part of the american economy. Feeling excluded, they struck back. Note that when we get to the Obama Presidency next week and talk about the passing of the Affordable Care act, his efforts early on to enlist support from people in the health care professions. The 1994 election. A bloodbath. For the first time in 40 years , republicans would get control of both houses of congress. To get your brain ready to contemplate 1994, think about 1992 again. President who is 46yearold and a new generation. Democrats in control of both houses of congress. It feels like a new day, certainly for those strongly sympathetic to what was going on. But a new day was coming. And all sorts of great change was going to be ushered in. However, bill clinton, for all his appetite throughout his adolescence and early adulthood, for all his political experience in arkansas, he did not actually have any washington experience when he showed up at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. That is what came to bite him in those first two years. He was not able to nimbly navigate with a democratic congress. A democratic president was not able to nimbly navigate with a democratic congress. Election, all1994 because of people writing newspaper articles, talking about bill clinton would be a one term president. He was through. Republicans now ran congress. Newt gingrich, the new speaker of the house, was kind of a prime minister, and clinton was going to be irrelevant. How does bill clinton navigate that situation to make a comeback . Or how maybe do republicans make some tactical errors that help them make that come back . He is going to get reelected in 1996, how is that possible . What goes on . There is one very sad event during which bill clinton performs very admirably. It begins to change sensibilities. One aspect is that Hillary Clinton [indiscernible] down and is like, we are going to do this. He is a republican centrist individual. To have tore going run the government in a centrist aspect. [indiscernible] they kind of advertise that. Another term triangulation. They hit on a clever strategy. The president would tactfully separate himself from some aspects of the democratic agenda, but still oppose aspects of the republican agenda. He would play the two sides off against each other and in a sense, he had republican help. Having achieved control of congress, they pressed aspects of their contract with america. They started to develop budgets with big cuts to medicare. To cut back on education and environmental programs. Clinton resisted and would veto those budgets, and in the fall and winter of 1995, 1996, you had government closedowns. Think constitutionally for a minute. If the government closes down, you could say both the president and the congress are responsible. But Public Opinion counts for a lot in terms of how people perceive this. Overwhelmingly, clinton won the Public Relations battle. Clinton emphasized, i am trying to balance the budget, but i dont want to cut education and medicare, the environment, i want to help children and old people. The republicans took a beating in Public Opinion. Also at the time, that fears fierce talk radio assault on bill and Hillary Clinton began to rub much of the public the wrong way. Suddenly, he is standing up to people who want to cut popular programs. This is the way to come back. Along with the economy taking off. The political winds are changing and the economy is beginning to boom. We have the early manifestations of the internet age, beginning around 1994, 1995. Like to you all seems neolithic history. The concept of the World Without the internet. Something i think future historians closely looking through the Clinton PresidencyPay Attention to as well is something that happens in the spring of 1995. The Oklahoma City bombing. An act of domestic terrorism in which countless lives were lost. A horrific bombing. Before that happens, bill clinton had struggled with some of the atmospherics of the office. Had trouble with the broad American Public thinking of him in the president ial terms. That people conceptualize say, Ronald Reagan. In the face of a horrible tragedy, he was that source of solace, that soothing presence. That the country craved at that moment. That, as much as anything, could be the pinpoint spot to really identify as when the bill clinton who left office with a n Approval Rating above 60 began to emerge, it was there in that spring of 1995 in Oklahoma City. [indiscernible] republicans kind of failed on their promises, the contract with america, because they filled to reduce government size and overall bring down taxes and so for. From their point of view, the contract said they would pass and oppose certain proposals. A lot of those proposals were vetoed by president clinton. They also made some internal changes in the rules of congress in terms of how committees work and seniority, and how long you could serve as chair and things like that. They did fulfill many parts of their contract. Down the road, though particularly by the end of the , presidency of george w. Bush and when you get early into the obama era, you have the emergence of the tea party. The Tea Party People are going to go back and critique the Republican Party itself, particularly the party of george w. Bush in terms of some of his programs. In the public, there would be dissent from the Tea Party People that the Republican Party did not deliver. If there is a thing about american politics that history often teaches, it is how quickly sentiments can change. Bill clinton, elected in 1992 with momentum that felt historic, and then humbled in 1994 with the rebuke felt historic, then reelected in 1996 in what, in recent elections, probably counts as one that was just never really close. Runs against bob dole, who had been a longtime senator, Vice President to gerald ford in 1976. But the 1996 election, which in 1994 you mightve thought, this is when bill clinton is going to get his comeuppance. He never achieved liftoff, and republican sees control of republicans seize control of congress. There was no way is going to win in 1996. In 1996, remarkably, in part because the economy is booming, and in part because clinton and morris strike on triangulation, 1996 is a cakewalk as president ial elections go. However, to his great chagrin, he did not cross the 50 threshold in the popular vote in either. 1996 even though the election was relatively easy and straightforward for him. Perotro ross fitfully ran again in 1996 without quite the enthusiasm of 1992. That was enough to keep clinton from getting more than 49 of the vote. After his reelection in 1996, in 1997, he strikes a deal with republicans in congress. A budget act that will reduce the deficit even more in the future. The balanced budget act. That, along with a booming economy of the 1990s, will lead eventually to a balanced budget. Which has long since disappeared. A rarity. A unicorn, the balanced budget. In 1997, things look great for clinton, dont they . He won that reelection, he has that economy going for him. He has that deal on balancing the budget. Into 1998, there is what we talked about last time when we talked about major president ial scandals. Linsky scandal, the eventual impeachment of the president. Politically speaking, what are your conclusions about that whole episode in terms of political lessons . Just admit it. Dont try to cover it up. It will get you into more trouble. The famous line about the affair. Something that will always tarnish him along with the impeachment. His legacy is never going to be able to escape what happened in that respect. Just the use of executive privilege and how that [indiscernible] honesty. , the political aspect, it kind of backfired. The impeachment and trials and so forth. When the 1998 election came, republicans lost. The pushback on republicans because he was so popular. Into 1998 off year election, the assumption would be that the republicans would pick up seats in the house of representatives. Actually, they lost seats in the house of representatives. There is a lesson here that is similar to the lesson of 1995 and 1996 and the budget showdown overreaching in politics. Republicans understood the public was against impeachment overwhelmingly. When they finally vote for impeachment, clinton is at the high point of his popularity. There are not the votes in the senate to remove him from office. Overreaching. And he survives, with lasting implications for his legacy, and in terms of matters of personal integrity. Anything else about the last two years in office . Or his legacy in general before we move on and talk about george w. Bush . [indiscernible] in 2008 with had the economy crashing . Whether the clinton era repeal of various banking regulations contributed meaningfully to 2008 is a question that plenty of people feel very strongly about. That they unquestionably did, bill clinton and others would say that they were relatively unrelated. But it was an era in which, clinton rather than like we were talking earlier, someone embracing the reagan revolution, rather than tightening regulation across the board, saw fit to loosen regulation. So that is one potentially deep legacy of the clinton years, that people will debate for years to come. The relationship with russia, the former soviet union, is not something we have talked about a great deal, but the dominating issue in Foreign Policy and Global Politics for two generations was the cold war. Which by 1992, and clintons election, have largely, its long tentacles had drawn to a full close. People debate now whether clinton and his white house could have done more to help russia onto a strong road of democracy and reform, or whether what has transpired in russia since was just an inevitable phenomenon. But that is certainly one aspect of clintons eight years in office. That russia, stepbystep , drifted towards where it is now, rather than turning into something else. A big thing is, and here Andrew Jackson in a way is maybe a parallel, but so much of bill clintons personal conduct while he was in office felt debatable. And people probably would not debate it today. It felt like it was a very debatable thing, and people took partisan sides. Whereas in the longer lens of history, it seems less like something that anybody would strongly defend. In somewhat the same way with Andrew Jackson, in his day, his policy towards native americans felt debatable. And in retrospect, it feels very much not debatable. Certainly for anyone who is president of a Major Corporation these days, or a president of a university, if you in that powerful position have even consensual sex with a younger intern, you are going to get fired. Are you going to resign in disgrace . Clinton got through that. He had the economy, and maybe some different attitudes than what exists today. Clintons legacy [indiscernible] extramarital affairs. [indiscernible] like fdr orents jfk . A lot of digging back to other president s. We do have a time issue here. We need to talk about george w. Bush, who certainly grows up in a very different environment than bill clinton. In fantastic circumstances. Born one month apart, but almost in, not even almost, in profoundly different circumstances. Born into luxury, a famous american family. Going to the top institutions without having to worry about getting scholarships or working his way through the system of higher education. In terms of working while you are trying to study. Something i know many students face today in a very difficult way. What stands out about his growing up that you think is important to understanding his presidency . Anything . Growing up, i would say his military service, national guard. Which will always be a source of controversy because he served in the Texas National guard. He did not go to vietnam. That would surface in both of his campaigns. Anything else about his growing up . Father as a role model. Definitely probably pushed him to running for president and [indiscernible] a legacy there. A set of experiences, an example, a role model. But also some difficulties growing up. We know about his first three decades. He wasnt exactly in his personal life what his father mightve expected. One more contrast with clinton that is interesting. They are born into different circumstances. Clinton born into much more difficult circumstances, is the shining star in his school days, and his early professional years. Whereas george w is kind of wayward, that might be a way to put it, deep into adult life. Certainly if you read what bush himself has said about his life, he would make the observation if he were here in class today, that when he embraced his evangelical Christian Faith in his 1940s, it was an important turning point in his life. It is important to his presidency when you consider his faithbased initiatives in terms of making it easier for privatesector faithbased organizations to receive federal funds to do Community Service work, to deal with addiction and things like that. That is important to his lifes story and his presidency. Anything else . Anything else about his growing up . Ok. I was watching a speech that he gave. He said that he went to harvard and said it is ok if you guys have as, but its also ok if you have c students. He was also a member of the skull and bones society. That is right. George Herbert Walker bush, george w. Bush, john kerry all members of that secret society. I think what is interesting about bushs image in the public is, here is a person from such an elite background, such who, basically growing up in texas, develops a kind of style that makes him able to relate to people that you would normally think individuals born to that class could not be able to do that. That is part of his background. We know of course he makes an early run for congress, he loses that first election. He goes to work on his fathers campaign. He goes to business, part owner of the Texas Rangers and things like that. But when you think about texas politics, he pulls off a stunning upset to start his victories in texas, then to the white house. To put that stunning upset in context, but for bill clinton defeating george bush the elder in 1992, almost certainly the case that george w would not have had a Clear Pathway to high level elected politics. That it wouldve been difficult and unusual for the son of a sitting president to run for governor of texas in 1994. If not for bill clinton winning in 1992, george w might not have become the figure we know. One political lesson we talked about early in the semester was the danger of a Political Party underestimating a challenger. We saw that with the democrats with Ronald Reagan when he first ran for governor in california. We see that with george w. Bush when he takes on and Richards Richards in texas, a popular governor. A charismatic governor. Of george w. Bushs father by saying he was born with a silver foot in his mouth. People do not think george w. Bush can win, but he wins. He does his homework, he focuses on certain issues in terms of education reform. Welfare reform. He pulls the upset, then gets reelected in a landslide. They underestimated him. I think bill clinton would later observe during bushs first term , of office and is talking to other democrats, that democrats underestimated george w. Bush at their risk. At their risk and everything. But, why is it that he is able to get the nomination . Somebody, there is like john mccain who wanted to be president. Mccain would try to get the nomination in 2000. Mccain has all that experience. What does bush have going for him besides the family name