Transcripts For CSPAN3 Lectures In History Presidencies Of Bill Clinton George W. Bush 20240713

This will be different because we are simply focusing on case studies. Today we are going to talk about bill clinton and for w bush. Next time we will talk about barack obama and donald trump. There will be so little to talk about when we talk about donald trump. With the clinton and george w on the docket today, there are a few things that warrants just some quick musing at the start. The first of which, which always older folksind of like us have to acclimate our psyches to realize that, to you all, bill clinton jen genuinely is a figure of history. None of you have an active recollection, or even a childhood recollection of bill clinton in office. Which actually is kind of amazing. Kind of a hazy figure to you. Thanof you all were older probably was anybody altered the intent when w left office . No. Even w is kind of a childhood figure to all. That just in it of itself just gives a sense of, especially for us, how quickly history can move. And how things pass from current day to historical. I havesion of that that tthinking about two is, oo is, in this motion and erational angst of change ok boomer is prevalent in the culture. I remember truman. The thing that is so striking to me about that, is that bill in 1992 the transition from bush 41 to bill clinton, was much kind of like this generational moment that we are in now with millennials and boomers. This moment when the baton really changed hands. Kind of ann archetypal boomer. Clinton and w born just a month apart in 1946. 41, archetypal number of the greatest generation. At the time, it felt like this burst of energy and momentum, and change, very selfconsciously for clinton. It was a lot like 19 68 went to kate takes office 1960 when kennedy takes office. Way, not unlike 1901 when teddy roosevelt, much younger than william mckinley, takes over and there is this burst of energy, enthusiasm momentum. And then the thing that is also difficult in the category of musings for you all to capture in your minds, is how different the world was in 1992. The cold war has ended. In the midst of a small recession, but not a grievous one. There was this general atmospheric sense of optimism, almost easy optimism in a way that is very hard for us to quite calibrate in our minds right now. Just given the state of the world. That prevailed all during clintons presidency, in part because of him, but in parts because of things that were going on. Certainly the climate that w inhabited when he was elected, that is white 9 11 was such a shock to the country. He thought he was going to be a domestic president that got to just focus on an era of easy progress. Obviously that has change so much. That was what the world felt like probably in 1992, when bill clinton came along. So, remarkable to think that for us, this is a figure of history. Reflect on the generational change that was a flex right then. That we are at the tail a foot right then. That we are at the tail end right now, so strange to think about how different the world felt, and how much more optimistic once upon a time. Lets talk about bill clinton growing up. What we have tried to do with each president in each case study is talk about their background a little bit. We are always interested to find out what you think about what they are growing up, how it mightve impacted their presidency in some way. What sends out to you . His work ethic. Just always having that feeling of when to become president , always working his weight through school from georgetown, to going to oxford in england, then yelled. Like andely see working wasnt ambition. Health care and other stuff like that. Another thing worth mentioning is that he grew up in a middleclass family. Both of his parents were traveling salesman. Up, theres growing were still some segregation. Were transpiring into an era that united the country. Both his parents, despite racial tensions in america, [inaudible] school went to catholic as a young kid. He went to Catholic School but perhaps did not absorb all the teachings. Anything else . We have seen other president s have difficult relationships with their fathers. Andalk about Richard Nixon Lyndon Johnson for instance. For clinton, what he saw in his home growing up. The kind of views and arguments. That had to have some impact on him. His attempt as a young person to try and negotiate the differences between the adults in his life, to try to handle that. I think if you read some of the literature of children who grew up in alcoholic homes, some of them develop a certain attitude about how to try to mediate conflicts. To think historically two, too, to think about growing up in 1946 like clinton and w, he grew up completely under the shadow of the modern presidency. August,idency is this incredibly powerful office. Just an ever present reality in the life of clinton and towards bush when they were growing up, which is different than prior president s. I could see how that transpires because he was more of a centric candidate. He always try to negotiate with republicans, and fact he actually was the first president since 1969 to get a budget passed. That kind of also transpired to the presidency. [inaudible] about clintons growing up in arkansas . [inaudible] it kind of pushed him to find that more moderate sense and be the new democrat. What about his political career . I think he made the Democratic Party so it wasnt i think before it was a bit more like businesslike, i think you modernized it i think you modernized it. Known in the party as the comeback kid, so we did change it a lot. In that vein, a thing certainly to think about. It is a notable difference between george w. Bush and clinton. We of these phenomenons that talk about plenty over the clintonf the fall, is not born into affluence. Born into poverty. W born into tremendous wealth and privilege, and it is just a good reminder of the fact that those who have become president have come in all from all different types of backgrounds. About hisvations trying to change the democratic read remember what you about his leadership at the Democratic Leadership Council . Before his election, republicans had one five of six president ial elections in the country. The Democratic Leadership Council tried to move the democratic Leadership Party to the center of the political spectrum. He tried during parts of his presidency to do that. Concern thatnty of the Democratic Party of 2019 2020 has shifted too far to the left. The Republican Party has shifted too far to the right. Andlar during the late 70s 80s as bill clinton was becoming politically active. That there was a concern that the party of mcgovern, who lost the 72 election in a landslide, had shifted too far to the left. Especiallyong with other southern democrats, worked hard to try to create structures and policy positions that shifted the party more towards the middle. Today, mayor bloomberg just announces presidency. He is more in the center. There is a shift going back towards that center in the Democratic Party, because they are getting a lot of people concerned. An individual so far to the left like elizabeth warren, bernie sanders. In the debate, they rally support. [inaudible] we talked about president ial elections in an earlier class. We pretty much covered the 1992 election and the disadvantages George Herbert walker bush had in terms of people being unhappy not to raise happy. Clinton having some real advantages in that election. Lets talk about bill clintons first two years in office. An interesting factoid about the 1992 election. Think regionally for a minute. Remember, a threeway race. Bush 41, bookbush clinton, ross perot. What part of the country were all three of them from . They were all from the south. Yet, they were all from the south. Think about how striking it would be if we had an election in the next cycle or two where everyone was from one part of the country. Especially from the south. Lets talk about those tough first two years in office for bill clinton. Some of the achievements, some of the shortcomings. One thing with Foreign Policy. With theaving to deal massacre in rwanda. Not intervening soon enough. The ethnic cleansing in rwanda. Bosnia. And those countries too. With Foreign Policy, he wasnt that great. I think when you think about the balkans, one of the legacies of the Clinton Presidency is, even though he did not have full congressional authorization, he eventually did take action in the bosnia crisis. And later in the kosovo crisis. In each case, by military and diplomatic intervention, it put an end to ethnic cleansing. We have a dayton accords and everything in his first term. You could say that he had some success with barn allstate especially in north ireland. With Foreign Policy in north ireland. That settlement existing to this day. As you read in newspapers, part of the debate in the United Kingdom regarding brexits what to do about the borders there with Northern Island ireland. Even though there was all that burst of energy, a generational change, the politics of the era i think are marked by the pushback against him. For me, people in the Republican Party. For many conservatives in the country. For older americans, particularly for older republicans who had five or six president ial victories. Many people did not see the Clinton Presidency as legitimate. They talked about his evading the draft. They talked about marijuana use. Things like that. Right,y people on the there was immediately contempt for bill clinton. Atticularly when you look the rise of talk radio. Personalities on talk radio would unrelentingly go after both bill clinton and Hillary Clinton. Leading to stories about people being killed mysteriously, people disappearing mysteriously. You had the very sad suicide of vince foster, a clinton friend. In the first year of his presidency. Accusations on talk radio that somehow the clintons were behind that. So politically, he inherited a Great Movement against him. At othere talked points about this concept of, the Permanent Campaign. Theway that beginning in 70s, crescendo and in the 80s, but reaching a point of perfection of the art in the 90s. Present incame ever the act of governing. Once upon a time it was not the case. We talk all the time about some things that are the same ever since america was founded, and some things that have changed with regards to the presidency. The Permanent Campaign would be a great example of something that is different. And had a marked effect on the Clinton Presidency. Certainly his administration participated in it, and very willfully. But the idea that once upon a time, politics was a bout about election. Politics were not completely stopped, but there would be a genuine and bona fide effort to try and work across differences and build consensus a little bit outside the hunt player of the political lights. Admin of different means of communication advents of different means of communication, it became easier to continue to mount the campaign, even ones that election was finished. Clinton himself, and his administration and political apparatus perfected that art. In the same moment, the republicans were really perfecting the art as well. They never missed a moment to critique him or find wage issues that could derail him from aspirations he may have politically, policy wise. Similarly, the Clinton White house was working against the Republican Congress in the same way. Lets talk about some early missteps in the first months of his presidency that really meant he had no honeymoon. Do you remember reading about any of those problems . Heat repealed the ability for lgbtq members to join the military. He got a lot of pushback from congress, and what ended up happening was, he try to negotiate with congress for the dont ask dont tell policy that is a pushback from congress saying, stepping back on the politics. Still transitioning from a very conservative time to more liberal to the liberal aspect of social issues. He didnt actually repeal their ability to serve, he made an announcement that would make it possible for them to officially serve. There was great pushback from the military and keep people from congress. He was keeping a campaign promise. He did that early on, and maybe in terms of what you know about attitudes today, seems like 1000 years ago. Back in 1993, a very different set of attitudes existed. By doing that so early, you get to be pushback, and then his decision to adopt something colts dont ask dont tell. Which was called dont ask dont tell. Gate was defeating to the immunity who wanted an open opportunity to serve, and people opposed to them serving. It turned out to be a disaster to him politically. What about some appointments that created great embarrassment . This goes back to the issue we talked about one day in terms of president ial transition periods. The importance of clearly vetting people and finding out about the individuals you are appointing. What happened with the appointment to the Attorney Generals Office . Into aronically ties controversial issue we have to date regarding immigration. [no audio] embarrass the president , early on. That a similar thing democrats have done to republicans as well. Era, it mayferent be clinical appointees have might not cut as much political scrutiny as what was happening in 1993. In terms of the organization of the white house. Schedules were constantly messed up. Early on, one democratic member of Congress Talking to a another unhappyaid, if you are about an announcement from bill clinton today, dont worry about it, he might change his you tomorrow. There was no strong chief of staff at that time. No discipline process. That comes later in his administration. He got a lot of bad press for that. Keep in mind a Historical Context there. Republicans have been relentlessly holding the white house with just a couple exceptions, since the days of Richard Nixon. It was republicans that really created the concept of the modern chief of staff. Jimmy carter in 1976 had ofously pushback on the idea the need for a chief of staff, and wanted to try to run things a little bit differently. Ultimately, that did not work out so well for him. He used more of a routine chief of staff model. Bill clinton is the first democrat elected president other than jimmy carter, all the way back to lbj. Model thatf staff they use so well. But reagan mastered was just not quite in the dna of the Democratic Party when they took the white house in 1992. The secrets of embarrassments driven by disorganization eventually prompted lindsay to change his mind. Desperate 20 clinton to change his mind. Prompted clinton to change his mind. Under pressure again with donald wherebeing interestingly the strong chief of staff model. We get to some of the political defeats of his first two years in office, lets talk victories inst those first two years. Nafta. From the readings i got was that, al gore went on larry king and debated ross perot. The arguments they were having got more support from the public. Going back to that new democrat idea that he had of free markets, which goes traditionally against democrats like lyndon b. Johnson and fdr. The nafta victory was made with great republik and support and significant democratic opposition. Clinton pursued it and it was an early victory for his administration. With bille things clinton and his ministration, like some things with bill clinton and his administration, by and large to most americans, seemed like a good thing. It has subsequently like free trade in general, begun to be viewed with a much more wary id buy the country. Policy decisions that were successful . When Saddam Hussein tried to assassinate president bush, he did not act on it, an airstrike on intelligence in iraq. [inaudible] while there is politics that divide, [inaudible] thats incident is one of a series of things that ultimately brought george bush senior, bush 41 and bill clinton to the point of being genuinely good friends. These two people who were hot losing a adversaries, president ial election is pretty tough for the soul. Being genuineup friends later in life. It was a remarkable thing. And with great democratic support he managed to get through Congress Something chris had passed, and something Herbert Walker bush had vetoed, and that was the family leave act. The onlyd states being industrial, wealthy country in the world that does not provide an Extensive Program for family members to have leave and get paid. The act did not require that people who took lead to get paid, but at least it gave them leave. If you worked in an area with a certain number of employees. That was eight reward to a longtime democrat platform position. I know gun control laws. Any Clinton Administration a ban on assault weapons. Things continue to get debated on that, because eventually that band was not renewed. One other thing. Deficit reduction. Remember, clinton had campaign on big middle tax club tax cuts. The economy was out of the recession. The Federal Reserve was more worried about the deficit. Congress a to controversial proposal to raise taxes on the wealthiest americans and cut spending in some areas. That passed on a purely partisan vote. Al gore and the senate had to break the type vote. Break the tie vote. That infuriated republicans because it involves increasing taxes, but it is important to his presidency later on, because it helps reduce the deficit he had already inherited. A macrot things in Historical Perspective. When we talk about eisenhower. You probably talk about that one of the things was especially relevant about eisenhower was, was that he came in the wake of all of fdrs reforms. And social programs. The republican at that point was very tempted to just actively oppose things like social security, and the expansion of the federal government in general. Republican,er, a chose to essentially embrace the innovations that the fdr administrations had made. Evencquiesce and enthusiastically acknowledge that america now had a large federal government. The fact that an Opposition Party had embraced, the republicans had embraced that democratic idea, went a long way to essentially locking in the idea for generations to come that the federal government was going to be a large operation. Engaged in lots of social endeavors as well as more classic National Security endeavors. Similarly, bill clinton comes in the wake of the reagan revolution. To significantly reduce taxes, the effort to at least control the growth of the federal government, especially with regards to social programs. The first democrat to be in office since that reagan revolution, similarly like with eisenhower, essentially embraced the reagan revolution. Than eightther democrat rather than taking toice and immediately try swell the federal government and instantaneously raise taxes dramatically, took a more middle path. Like with eisenhowers orrace of fdr policies policy framework, clintons embrace of the reagan policy framework has essentially been the default setting for america subsequently. Except one exception involving his greatest political defeat in the first few years, health care. The president who would provide the United States with a comprehensive, universal system of health care coverage. Two joint much of the rest of the world. He appointed his wife Hillary Clinton to lead that effort, and it leads to total defeat. Why was it defeated . How was it defeated . What went wrong . For bill clinton, i think for him, that in his mind wouldve been the crowning achievement as president. To be able to do that. To succeed where other president s had failed. What politically went wrong . Going into it, his staff advised him not to because he campaign for National Service and welfare reform, not health care, they warned him going into it. The 1994 elections. Where he had to compromise with republicans. There were some democrats even. Allowedfailed effort republicans to paint him as a typical democrat. Not a new democrat. Sick of the politics of it. Think of the politics of it. A Large Commission that meant met under the conditions of secrecy. Even democrats in congress were in many cases cut out of the loop. Ideas, andeir own instead, this commission headed by his wife, develops a complicated plan 1300 pages long that involves a combination of some marketplace forces, all kinds of government regulations, managed competition. A plan few people can understand. And immediate fierce opposition to it. Even though at first Public Opinion was sympathetic, the ads organized by a coalition of Insurance Industry people, the harriet and louise ads health to erode support for that. Eventually it is defeated. This test category of the Permanent Campaign. A conflictjust within the halls of congress that ultimately defeated the and Hillary Clintons health care aspirations. It was the Permanent Campaign being waged across the country and over the airwaves that eroded the support too. The commission seem to exclude major stakeholders in the health care industry. Americanart of the economy. Feeling excluded, they struck back. When we get to the Obama Presidency next week and talk about the passing of the Affordable Care act, his efforts early on to some test enlist support from people in the health care professions. The 1984 election. A blood bit the 1994 election. A bloodbath. For the first time in 40 years the republicans take both houses of congress. Think about 1992 again. A president who is 46 years old and a new generation. Of boths in control houses of congress. ,t feels like a new day certainly for those strongly sympathetic to what was going on. That a new day was coming. And all sorts of great change was going to be ushered in. However, bill clinton for all hisappetite throughout adolescence and early adulthood, for all his political experience he did not actually have any washington experience when he showed up at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. Him is what became to bite in those first two years. He was not able to nimbly navigate with a democratic congress. A democratic president was not able to delete navigate with a democratic congress. After that 1984 election, all kinds of after that 1994 election. Bill clinton would be a one term president. He was through, republicans now ran congress. Newt gingrich the new speaker was kind of a prime minister, and clinton was going to be irrelevant. How does bill clinton navigate that situation, to make a comeback . It may be too republicans make some tactical errors that help them make that come back . He is going to get reelected in 1996, how is that possible . Eventre is one very sad during which bill clinton performs very admirably. It begins to change sensibilities. One aspect is that Hillary Clinton [inaudible] comes down and says we are going to do this. You are going to have to run the government [inaudible] advertise that. Triangulation. Orcing clinton tactfullyent would separate himself from some aspects of the democratic agenda, but still oppose aspect of the republican agenda. He would play the two sides off against each other and in a sense, he had republican help. Having achieved control of congress, date pressed aspects of their contract with america. They started to develop budgets with it cuts to medicare. To cut back on education and environmental programs. Resisted and would veto those budgets, and in the fall and winter of 19951996, you had government clip close downs. Think constitutionally for a minute. If the government closes down, you could say both the president and the congress are responsible. But Public Opinion counts for a lot in terms of people how people perceive this. Overwhelmingly, clinton won the Public Relations battle. , i am tryingsized to balance the budget, but i dont want to cut education and medicare, the environment, i want to help children and old people. The republicans took a beating in Public Opinion. Also at the time, thats a talk radio assault on bill and Hillary Clinton began to rub much of the public the wrong way. Suddenly, he is standing up to people who want to cut popular programs. This is the way to come back. Along with the economy. Political the economy is beginning to boom. We have the early manifestations of the internets age beginning around 1994, 1995. Which to all seems like nihilistic history. Neolithic history. Life without the internet. Something future historians closely looking through the Clinton Presidency will Pay Attention to. Its something that happens in the spring of 1995. The Oklahoma City bombing. An act of domestic terrorism in which countless lives were lost. A horrific bombing. Before that happens, bill clinton had struggled with some of the atmospherics of the office. The broade with American Public thinking of him in the president ial terms. People conceptualize say, Ronald Reagan. In the face of a horrible tragedy, he was that source of solace, that soothing presence. That the country craved at that moment. Anything, could be the pinpoint spot to really identify as when the bill clinton who left office with a Approval Rating above 60 began to emerge. Was there in that spring of 1995 in obama city. [inaudible] vetoing. Republicans kind of [inaudible] contract of america, because they wanted to reduce government size. Bring down taxes and so forth . [inaudible] from their point of view, the contract said they would oppose certain proposals. A lot of those proposals were vetoed by president clinton. They also made some internal changes of the rules of congress , how long you could serve as chair and things like that. They did fulfill many parts of their contract. Down the road though, particularly by the end of the presidency of george w. Bush, when you get early into the obama era, you have the emergence of the tea party. Where the Tea Party People are going to go back and critique the Republican Party itself, particularly preof george w. Bush in terms of some of his programs. Public, for the Tea Party People, the Republican Party did not deliver. If there is a thing about american politics and history often teaches, is how quickly sentiments can change. 1992clinton elected in with momentum that felt historic, humbled in 1994 with the rebuke felt historic, then reelected in 1996. In really soon elections probably counts as one that was just never really close. Been a bob dole who had longtime senator, Vice President to gerald ford in 1976. But the 1996 election, which in 1994 you mightve thought, this is when bill clinton is going to get his comeuppance. Off, andachieved lift republicans seized control of congress. There was no way is going to win in 1996. In they 1996, remarkably, in part because the economy is booming, and in part because the clinton in thick morris strike upon to morris strike on the triangular. Cakewalk as president ial elections go. However, to his great chagrin, he did not cross the 50 threshold in the popular vote in 1986 either. 1996. Hough the even though the election was straightforward for him. In 1996ot ran again without quite the enthusiasm of 1992. That was enough to keep clinton from getting more than 49 of the vote. In 1996,his reelection in 1997, he strikes a deal with republicans in congress. Budget act that will reduce the deficit even more in the future. The balanced budget act. With a booming economy of the 1990s, will lead eventually to a balanced budget. Which has long since disappeared. A rarity. A unicorn, the balanced budget. Looked990 seven, things great for clinton, dont they . Reelection, he hasnt economy going for him. He has that deal on balancing the budget. 1998, there isto where we talked about last time where we talk about major president ial scandals. The lowenstein scandal, the eventual impeachment of the president the lewinsky scandal. Speaking, what are your conclusions about that whole episodes, in terms of political lessons . Just a minute. Just admit it. Dont try to cover it up. The famous line about the affair. Something that will always tarnish him along with the impeachment. His legacy is never going to be able to escape what happened in that respect. The use of executive honesty. Ow that [inaudible] it kind of backfired. Impeachment, so forth. The 1998 election came, republicans lost. Pushback on republicans because he was so popular. Going into the 1998 off your election, the assumption would be that the republicans would take seats in the house of representative. Actually, they lost seats in the house of representatives. There is a lesson here that is similar to the lesson of 1995 and 1996. Overreaching in politics. Republicans understood the public was against impeachment overwhelmingly. When they finally vote for impeachment, clinton is at the height of his popularity. There arent the votes of the senate to remove him from office. Overreaching. He survives, with lasting implications for his legacy, and terms of matters of personal integrity. Anything else about the last two years in office . Before we move on and talk about george w. Bush . [inaudible] we head into thousand eight with the economy crashing. Whether the clinton era appeal of various acting statutes and banking regulations contributed meaningfully to 2008 that plenty of people feel very strongly about. Did,they unquestionably that bill clinton and others would say that they were relatively unrelated. Which,was an era in someonerather than embracing the reagan revolution, rather than tightening regulation across the board, saw fit to listen regulation. So that is one potentially legacy of the clinton years, that people will debate for years to come. Russia, the with former soviet union is not so that we have talked about a great deal. But the dominating issue in Foreign Policy and Global Politics for two generations was the cold war. Which by 1992, and clintons largely its long testicle had drawn to a full close. People debate now whether clinton could have done more to help russia onto a strong road of democracy and reform, or whether what has transpired in russia since was just an inevitable phenomenon. But that is certainly one aspect of clintons eight years in office. That russia, stepbystep drifted towards where it is now, rather than turning into some thing else. Is, and here Andrew Jackson in a way is maybe a parallel, but so much of bill clintons personal conduct while he was in office felt debatable. And people probably would not debated today. Felt like it was a very debatable thing, and people took partisan sides. Where as in the longer lens of likery, it seemsfelt like less something that anybody would strongly defend. Same way withe hisew jackson in his day, policy towards native americans felt debatable. Feels very much not debatable. Iscertainly for anyone who major president of a Major Corporation these days, four president s of a university, if you in that powerful position have even consensual sex with a younger intern, you are going to get fired. Are you going to resign in disgrace . Clinton got through that. And maybe economy, some different attitudes than what exists today. [inaudible] legacy extramarital affairs. Fdr, or jfk . Of digging back to other president s. We do have a time issue here. We do need to talk about george w. Bush. He certainly grows up in a very different environment than bill clinton. Born one month apart, but , not even almost, in profoundly different circumstances. Born into luxury, a famous american family. Institutionstop without having to worry about scholarships or working his way through the system of higher education. In terms of working while you are trying to study. What stands out about his growing up that you think is important to understanding his presidency . Growing up i would say his military service, national guard. A sourcewill always be of controversy because, he starved any Texas National guard. He did not go to vietnam. Anything else about his growing up . s father as a role model. Definitely probably pushed him to running for president , and being in office [inaudible] a legacy there. A set of experiences, an example, a role model. Know about his first three decades. He wasnt exactly in his personal life what his father mightve expected. One more contrast with clinton that is interesting. They are born into different circumstances. Clinton born into it much more difficult circumstances is the days,g star in his school and his early professional years. Of way george w is kind word. Might be a way to put it. Deep into adult life. Certainly if you read what bush himself has said about his life, he would make the observation if he were here in when heday, that embraced his evangelical faith was an important turning point in his life. It is important to his presidency when you consider his policies on faithbased initiatives, and terms of making it easier for privatesector faithbased organizations to receive federal funds to do Community Service work, to deal with addiction and things like that. That is important to his lifes story and his presidency. Anything else . Anything else about his growing up . Ok. I was watching a speech that he gave. He went to harvard and said it is ok if you guys have as, but its also ok if you have see students. He was also a member of the skull and bones society. That is right. George Herbert Walker bush, george w. Bush, john kerry all members of that secret society. What is interesting about bushs image in the public. Here is a person from such an elite background, such opportunity who, basically growing up in texas develops a kind of style that makes him able to relate to people that you wait normally think individuals born to that class could not be able to do that. That is part of his background. We know of course he makes an early run for congress, he loses that first election. He goes to work on his fathers campaign. Business, part owner of the Texas Rangers and that. But when you think about texas politics, he pulls off a stunning upset to start his victories in texas, then to the white house. To put that stunning upset in context, but for bill clinton defeating george bush the elder in 1992, almost certainly the case that george w would not have had a Clear Pathway to high level elected politics. Difficultuldve been and unusual for the sun have a sitting president to run for governor of texas. In 1994. If not for bill clinton winning in 1992, george w might not have become the figure we know. Weone political lesson talked about early in the semester was the danger of a Political Party underestimating a challenger. You saw that with the democrats and Ronald Reagan when he first ran for government governor in california. Bushe that with george w. When he takes on aunt richards in texas. Ann richards eight popular governor. A charismatic governor. People do not think george w. Bush can win, but he wins. He focuses homework, on certain issues in terms of education reform. Welfare reform. He pulls the upset, then gets reelected in a landslide. They underestimated him. Clinton would later observe, during bushs First Talking toice and is other democrats, that democrats underestimated george w. Bush at their risk. At their risk and everything. But, why is it that he is able to get the nomination . Somebody like john mccain wanted to be president. Mccain will try to get their nomination in 2000. Mccain has all that experience. What does bush have going for him besides the family name . He was familiar. I think it was nice for the American People to save a kind of know what he stands for. I think a lot of people liked his father. I think that familiarity was a Good Platform for him to work off of. His personality, he was more laidback. He is a guy you could enjoy hanging out with while al gore seems like to hang out with. He also had a centrist approach to politics. Compassion conservatism. He is able to pull other people that somebody like mccain would not be able to grasp. When aonly the name, but party is out of power for a couple of times, they really want to get the white house back. George w. Bush was received as more moderate than some other possible republican candidates. At that time, republicans controlled most of the governorships in the state, in the big states except for california. Those governors early on indoors to him. Plus, bush worked hard to cultivate key conservatives in the Republican Party and congress. You had the weight of the establishment and in an object lesson of what money and politics can do and what they cannot do, in the 2000 race george w was the republican that could raise, at the time, astronomical figures in the primary. And that have the effect, in the political term, clear the field. Other candidates did not feel like they could can be with that kind of fundraising. Mightvedidates that been strong, at least on paper, aso chose not to jump in they might otherwise have because of that fundraising. , georgeward 16 years ws brother jeb thought that playbook was going to work again. Those of you who play close attention to the 16 republican raise as know that jeb lot of money on the front end of the primary. In 16. T did not work it is fascinating the way money sometimes does the trick and sometimes does not. I see more of a comparison to Hillary Clinton as opposed to jeb bush. I think there were some in people that did jump into the spublican field that jeb bush name got lost in getting that news attention. I think if you look at Hillary Clinton in the democratic field, you really see people like who has nowrren, come through in this election and has been one of the larger names out there that we are hearing about the most. A lot of people talked about why she did not run in 2016. I think it was because clinton jumped in and so many of the democratic donors knew the clinton name. Not necessarily that they liked the clinton name, but it was a household name. It was it easy name to get behind. Universe,lternate veryns of students are confused about the progression of u. S. President s. In an alternate universe it goes bush, clinton, bush, clinton, and it gets pretty wonky there. We will not get into that here today. What about how he pressed everyone . In the 2000 election you had the predicted that bush would lose the election by a huge margin. In the end results were completely against clinton. Two buckets of interesting factoid with the 2000 election. The first of which is, and we talked about this right at the start of the fall, but a quark of American History that may well have played out to our advantage is, so many of the early president s did not have male children. ,ashington did not, adams did jefferson, madison, monroe, none of them had male children. If the early president s had had male children, speaking of alternate universes, we could have had a situation in which a became expected. The first president was a male child, john adams, one of his sons was elected president. If that had been the normal pattern early on, it could have quickly pushed american politics into a very different realm. A more classic aristocracy. It is obviously very unusual for george w to be elected after his father has also been president. And john adams and John Quincy Adams was the only other time that had happened. The other bucket of interesting is if you put the 1876 election to the side, which was contested and complicated for other reasons related to the tail end of reconstruction, there are four times when there has been a difference between the popular vote and the Electoral College vote and the Electoral College vote just carries the day. 1824, John Quincy Adams and Andrew Jackson. With Grover Cleveland moving to benjamin harrison. It will be a Common Thread in all of these. 2000 with al gore losing to george bush. And now 2016 with trump beating hillary. He for 2016, all three of those involved had weirdly. Egacy president s John Quincy Adams wins in a contested one. Benjamin harrison, the grandson of William Henry harrison of hampden sydney. And then george w beating gore. That is just a fascinating thing. Probably, in some way that would be hard to completely fish together, underscores the fact that a legacy candidate has a really Strong Network to draw on. Hat can help win an election then of course we get 16 and that breaks the pattern. It is fascinating that a legacy candidate is still involved, even if on the losing side of the election. Your comment about the predictions of that election, i think we should think about those predictions that go along with easy wins were based on running statistics about the state of the economy in that election compared to other elections. When they ran the models, gore should win. , he did win the popular vote, right . Not win by millions, he only won the popular vote by 500,000, then you had florida. We talked about the 2000 election in an earlier class. We will not cover much of that today. But bear in mind, the controversy about that recount in florida, bear in mind the disaster for al gore that ralph nader was on the ballot and picked up 97,000 votes in florida, most of which would probably have gone to gore if nader had not been there siphoning off votes. The Supreme Court decision remains controversial to this day. It represents a general problem for the judiciary in terms of the controversies we have talked about in another class. The judiciary becoming less respected, more controversial, being pursued is more political and everything. As you follow current news, i think we have to wait for a few months because there are a couple of Big Decisions out there regarding people testifying from the white house regarding President Trump taxes. We will have to see how the judiciary handles that, and what happens in terms of public response, and everything. A thing about 2000, which we have talked about in the past a little bit, like with 1996, the feel to america like it was very highstakes. In 19 96 info like a relatively not highstakes easy choice of clinton to the American People. Gore were not all that far apart. If you look up the Voter Participation numbers in 1996 and 2000 you see that they have a bitd off as compared to of a strong uptick in 1992. 1992 actually has a highest participation level since the 1960s. In 1996 and 2000 they are in a much softer zone, but they spike back up into thousand four in a rising sense. Was talk about george w. Bush is presidency. Bushs presidency. The cloud hangs over him in terms of not winning the popular vote, but he is determined to push forward with his agenda. His agenda is a mixture of compassion, conservatism, and some oldtime basic republican themes about cutting taxes. Of office he year does get a major tax cut through. What are some of the other policies he is pursuing . We will get to 9 11 in a little while. No child left behind. He had positioned himself as a compassionate conservative interested in education reform. Here was an opportunity to texas what he had done in working with the democrats. He worked with senator kennedy and others that get no child left behind, which at the time, have large amount of bipartisan support. We talked about the roller coaster of Public Opinion in american politics moving into the future. That reform that was once basically popular had both people on the left and the right turning against it. Too much testing, too much money, etc. , etc. Too much federal regulations. Teachers resisting it, republicans resisting it and everything. At the time, it was an important victory that filled a campaign pledge. Then you had his efforts to try to make it easier for faithbased organizations to receive federal funds. But there is also some political setbacks going on early on. Control of the senate. In that first year, a few months , ao his presidency republican senator decides to no longer sit with the Republican Caucus and he sits with the democratic group. That changes control of the senate, chariman schiff of all committees will be altered. Then of course 9 11, which we talked a bit about in another class. We talked about Foreign Policy bushs presidency has transformed. Think about bush before 9 11. 1 Approval Rating focus on domestic policy, and then everything changes. Then the shocked the nation rally around the flag, rally around the commanderinchief, all of a sudden he becomes the most popular president in Public Opinion polls up until the 1990s for a wild. A new adventure for his white house. Observations about the Foreign Policy. [inaudible] to think he really loved the American People. Like their intent was to scare us and we are not scared. All the other people are not in bunkers, so why should i be . Talked about a rhetorical presidency and another class, but his address on television of the night of 9 11, is going to new york city, standing on the rubble, talking to the firemen and explain to people they would be hearing from all of us. His address to congress. Those were all very well received public addresses in terms of Public Opinion. [inaudible] yeah. Not thinking like democrats and republicans coming together. Now to be an alternative universe, doesnt it. The for a brief moment, for a brief moment yes . [inaudible] the expansion of the president s powers. The video on cheneys walk in the amount of power that influenced and was able to have on bush in terms of Foreign Policy. Combatantsage enemy and guantanamo bay, and so forth, just kind opened up an idea. Parallel with clinton the way we were talking about a minute ago, it is 9 11 that really imbues george w in the eyes of americans and in the eyes of people across the of ary with the qualities president. It really seems president ial. Much like with bill clinton in the wake of the Oklahoma City bombing. Something that he had struggled with before and it suddenly snapped into focus. The American People thought of bill clinton from that point forward as the president. And 9 11 forward as really the moment when that happens with w as well. The American People think in that moment that the person they rallied behind would leave office would all with only a bout a 33 or so popularity rating. Leaving office extremely unpopular. A roller coaster ride that many president s seem to experience during their time in office. Lets talk a little bit about the expansion of president ial power. We had a class earlier on where theory thatout the had developed currency that was fully articulated by dick cheney and others. Those early decisions, Congress Gives bush a blank check in authorizing the use of force against anyone who was associated with those attacks, or anyone who might attack us. Bush is going to take that as justification for later actions that are going to become much more controversial. The decision urged upon him by his advisors. To link al qaeda, the taliban, afghanistan to iraq and Saddam Hussein. Early on in cabinet meetings, right after the 9 11 attack, bush read chapter that. But by the time you get to 2002, suddenly bush is leaning in the direction that we are going to deal with Saddam Hussein. You have a year and a half of discussion about whether to go after Saddam Hussein invaded iraq and bush signs off on that. And of course weapons of mass destruction. We talked in another class about how that story turned out. With the invasion of iraq you have occupation. Go back and read newspaper stories about what an ministry of officials were saying at the time of the invasion. This will be a fast war. It will be over in months or weeks. Iraqis will put together a new government and for some of the more optimistic people supporting this, iraq would become a fighting democracy, a western ally, and by bringing democracy to iraq, the whole middle east would be transformed. Transformed in some ways, but it did not go well. We still have people in iraq. The cost is human lives, american lives, iraqi lives, this the disruption by different players in the middle east. The advantage of the iranians in everything. What else about that fateful decision . Countrysbush, the still behind him to get reelected in 2004. This time winning the majority of the bow. He wins by 3 million votes and defeats john kerry. He had had the successful Midterm Election in 2002 were republicans had picked up seats. A big thing in terms of normal Midterm Elections. Beginning in two dozen five and 2006, what is going wrong besides the fact that the war in iraq seems to be going on with this insurgency, although violence, everything like that . The economy is failing. Slowing the economy is down, but it will be december of 2007 when technically the recession begins and you have later incial collapse the fall in 2008. What else is going wrong for george bush . [inaudible] there are setbacks in terms of court decisions. We need to talk about civil liberties. We talk about the war in iraq. In times of International Crises or war, not only does a lot of power go to the president , but something tends to happen in terms of civil liberty. [standby] then, according to the Geneva Convention you have a controversial decision about enhanced interrogation, torture. You have secret surveillance of are conducted by the government. All kinds of things are going on there. Plus some Supreme Court decisions telling the Bush Administration that your military tribunals are unconstitutional. Congress is going to go back and legislate in such a way that is going to allow bush to do some of the things he had been doing. But, increased controversy. What often happens in American History is comic years after the panic and the reaction, the shock of conflict and war, recover from they have a hangover or they recover from it. They think to themselves, should we have done those things . How we think about in terms of japaneseamericans. Think about how we think about enhancement interrogation and waterboarding. Playing forward from 9 11, the Bush Administration would contend that they had a defensible cause of action to a rationale that was strong to begin the iraq war. Seems much more faulty. They really do feel that in the theup to it, it was sensible, even the hard but brave course of action that had to be pursued. This endlessly fascinating things inistory that a Historical Perspective can look very different than they do in the moment leading up to it. So the National Security considerations around civil liberties, in the wake of 9 11, moment, ihat hot would say even most people were quite sensible. But in retrospect, they work very different. Constant hit it that an administration in Office Actually has to be contemplating. Shoes put yourself in the of the people of the white house at the time and they believe, and so many experts went on tv and said, this is only the beginning of more attacks. Back andf you went looked at recordings of television, news programs at the time, talk shows, there would be experts on saying that, yeah, sooner or later terrorist organizations are going to get their hands on a nuclear bomb, and they are going to put in a container, and it will show up in an american port and we will lose an american city. The Bush Administration basically believes that they would do anything to prevent that happening. Bear in mind, something you often,ot read about too right after 9 11 you had the anthrax attacks. So, the whole thing about terrorism, nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, they all tied together. Dickor george bush and cheney, 9 11 had happened on their watch. Was it going to happen again . And they went in a certain direction that had all kinds of consequences that they are living with today. Whether it is in afghanistan or iraq or syria. And like with bill clinton and bill clintons legacy, it is it has open the speculation reflecteep history will on the bush years, on the one at least two things that would have been very before have stopped hand. 9 11 and katrina. Disasterss of these or add an epic scale that is difficult to perhaps hold somebody responsible for. Theyast the fact that happens, the aftermath is a different thing. Hen you have the 2008 crash more debatable as to whether that was something that could have been stopped and to what extent that was something that the Bush Administration had given rise to and it had deeper roots. But just right there youve got three, if you were drawing up a list of the 20 worst things that had domestically happened to america over time, you have three contenders for that top 20 list. 9 11, katrina and the Great Recession in 2008. That is a lot for an administration to grapple with. You layer the iraq war on top of it being ash debatable as it is to whether that was wise. But that is a lot that the administration, the bush was saying grace over. Think is astory will little bit hard to say. In the way that harry truman, as ,e talked about, left office tail between his legs with incredibly low Approval Ratings and nobody thought that the subsequent years would look at him favorably and yet harry truman is now thought of as one of the greats. It would probably surprise somehowy if george w got exalted into the far upper reaches. But whether in all the lifetimes and the decades ahead is the bush years will be seen the way the country saw them up to the very end is a different question. Years offer that strong contrast. They, when they were concluding, it seem like they would be looked at as this house jan era of success after success with a lot of political noise around it. That is not, at least for the present moment, the way history is in to think about them now. I do have some democratic friends on social media often say, in terms of donald trump, that they now miss george bush. [laughter] that means that there will be a complete rehabilitation of his legacy or not, but katrina, a national disaster. Indeed, if you want to defend the mistakes and misjudgments, and problems at the local and state level were pretty nonsubstantial. But remember we talked about the public presidency, the Permanent Campaign trying to present the best possible photo ops for president s. The picture of george w. Bush in an airplane flying over new , which has over 1000 people about to die, that is probably one of the worst pictures you could ever have. That led to people thinking this guy does not care. He rallied the country behind what happened in new york and washington. Where was he with katrina . That would be the rap on him. His popularity begins to go down when that happens. Footnote to that picture that you probably all know well of bush in air force one flying over katrina seeming very detached, a footnote to that is his powerful political advisor, which you probably all recognize the name, had kidney stones during katrina and was not really in the swing of things. That iseen able to say a bad idea, please dont do that , would that have had an effect. And you wrote a lot about how doesnt make the same mistakes as president s before then. With both obama and trump, when disaster,ny natural try to be on top of it. In the back of their minds, i dont want a katrina. I dont want to be viewed as somebody who somehow does not care. But clearly, someone like bush cared for people, but that appearance of neglect was a disaster. Lets take the last 10 minutes and talk about both president s and their legacies. What they might share in common and how they differ. Gimme observations on your part. The one that comes to my mind is that mission accomplish. Which at the time sounded pretty great, right . [inaudible] one of those things that at the time it looked really super. The president landing in a plane. Later on the war goes on. [inaudible] and your [n immediately goes inaudible] and his association with the Democratic Leadership Council china moved the democrats to the they are seriously questioning clintons legacy in many respects. One other thing about clinton in terms of impact. Inc. About that behavior and the consequences for two president ial elections. Owl distancing himself from bill clinton when he should have ran on the economy. Clinton as popular, he will leave off a 68 job Approval Rating. People might not think he has personal integrity, but he is popular. Gore distances himself from clinton and does not use clinton the way George Herbert walker used reagan when he was in the white house. That scandal plays a role in that. ,nd think about Hillary Clinton who, in the contest of donald trump and the famous recording about grabbing people in a certain place, the hollywood access tape, that would normally finish off a president. What do the trump people do . They dragged in till clintons bill clintons sexual legacy. He madeoth gore because the decision to distance himself from clinton, and for Hillary Clinton, had a husband who cheated on her and a husbands whose behavior would come back and haunt her only president ial campaign. Anything else . Both president s tried to push for women being more or the first africanamerican female secretary of state. Nominatingd clinton and Ruth Bader Ginsburg in the Supreme Court. You can and the this push for giving minorities a greater voice. Another aspect i think is the expansion ofms of Democratic Institution and democratic ideas. Especially on the Bush Administration. Kind of to the aspect that it took for the imagination. I think at the end of bush presidency, he started the andout of the Auto Industry he never even mentions it. If you want to defend george w. Bush, you would argue that when that crisis to plays, he put his traditional ideological positions aside, he listens to his advisers and he undertakes is very controversial decision to have the tarp program. Which is something barack obama supported also. For bush defenders, it helped prevent the Great Recession from becoming another great depression. And gives rise to one of the well honed transition coordination certainly between the opposing parties that we have seen in recent times. The white house transition from bush to obama in part because of the recession. Because george w was very insistent in making sure the transition and the handoff was good and smooth, really did go couldularly well and you contrast that with sebi over trump transition, which was not more fraught much more fraught. That decision on the banks, completely detested by the American Public. People were hurting. A lot of people lost a good part of their life savings. People lost their homes. The idea that the banks got build out. And then we will talk about obama next time in the economic circumstance. He continues tarp and has his own economic stimulus plan. The reaction of the tea party about deficit, government, everything. Political, continues polarization and makes things much more difficult for obama. We have that lasting animosity to this day about banks, big business, trade deals. You think of the last president ial campaign. Candidates leading went after various trade deals, including the pacific trade deal. The rise of populism. Else about their legacies that someone might want to point out . I thought it was interesting we talked about how both moderates were very and partisan. We see that with clinton coming in and really working with the budget and raising taxes but also cutting spending. You see both parties doing the opposite. And then also with bush coming in and having no child left behind, which we all think of as bad now but then it had why partisan support. Bipartisan support. And then obama working with and how with boehner you could see a republican backlash and see it in the and just the trump agenda and partisanship that we see now. Just how politics have really changed or that i perceived that it has changed a lot. And that they dont really care about opioid to the far right or far left side is working together for the American People. Im sure other people in the class agree with me that we are that up with it and we hope for a change, especially with the 2020 election coming up, and just hoping that on both sides, the last rites we see a move back to and less partisan. For your generation. A boomer like me. I grew up with relatives in the 1950s and 1960s who were expressing the afterglow of world war ii, economic recovery, and country moving forward after the depression. So your whole life, the wars in the middle east, partisanship, the division, little tiny thing. We always focus on america. Politics. Merican there is one aspect of the bush legacy that is sometimes overlooked. He supported very large economic packages to address aids in africa, malaria and africa, clean water in africa that saved millions of lives. Part of the bush legacy is, for people in the middle east, over a million lives lost there, all the people we have lost. Economic recession, things like that, but there is that other aspect of that other thing. Anything else before we wrap up . Thank you for reminding me that i grew up under much more happy circumstances. [laughter] i think we need to head out. Ok. We think cspan for being here. Thank you everybody. Thanks, everybody. You can watch lectures in history every weekend on American History tv. We take you inside College Classrooms to learn about topics ranging from the American Revolution to 9 11. At 8 00 p. M. On midnight eastern on cspan3. [indiscernible about the oilalk impact on American Religion and politics. Here is a preview. How did wildcat religion come to define the western era oilpatch in last informs . Lasting forms . How did it start . With daisy bradford, a christian woman who recruited marion joyner, known as dad joyner to find oil on her farm. From alabamarofit whose only education came through memorizing the old testament. Joyner was a poor boy and under finance operator working. He was certain that god would guide him. With word of something brewing, people dressed in their sunday best and with make their way to the farm to watch the magic man at work. 1930, audible garglings could be heard in the casing. Next came a flow, all of which electrified the crowd. Scenetness described the as hell areas. Some jumped up and down with the joy and tossing high into the air to demonstrate their feelings. One crewman pulled out his pistol and shot up the oil spray in the sky and was quickly tackled. Danger all around. Pale. Turned almost in disbelief that way yet prophesies came true. Well became true was epic and proportions. It was to be discovered as the largest up to that point ever discovered in the world. It was 43 miles long, 10 miles wide containing 5. 5 million barrels. Is ahappened overnight blooming population with this new booming economy. Workers from all over the region poured into east texas looking for employment. What else is going on at this time . The depression. Here you have the poorest counties of one of the poorest regions. All of a sudden this explosion of possibility and people are ready to take full advantage of that no matter the cost. About theore relationship between the oil industry, christianity and politics sunday at 4 30 p. M. Eastern here on American History tv. Ryan mcgrady talks about how wikipedia has changed since it was founded in 2001. As the scholars in Science Program manager, he works with academics to improve site content. His interview was recorded at the annual American Historical Association meeting in new york city. Host joining us from our studios in new york, ryan mcgrady. He is the manager for wiki education, which means what . A program that brings subject Matter Experts to wikipedia. Host what is