Transcripts For CSPAN3 Taiwan Elections Discussion 20240713

Affairs Committee Member looks at what the relations mean for u. S. Taiwan relations. Hello. Welcome everyone. Im walter logan. Im director of the Asian Studies center here at the heritage foundation. I really appreciate all of you coming out, thank you. I want to thank rustle shou for partnering with us on this program today. Im so glad we could work this out. You know, there was a little election over the weekend. I dont know if everyone noticed, but judging by the turnout, perhaps you did. You know, at the outset here i just want to say a couple of things about the elections in taiwan on saturday, just a couple, and turn it over to our guests and our Panel Speakers to offer real advice on it, real insight. First of all, i think that the election says more about taiwan than it says about anything else. I not only highlight that because i think we all are immediately moving to what this means for china. For all practical purposes, all practical purposes, taiwan is really not a part of china. So, why do we move immediately to talk about what this means for china . What it means most is that taiwan values the same things that the rest of the free world values. Its conducted its 7th president ial free election, 9th y election. Its a major accomplishment. Its becoming such a thing that it very merits congratulations us anymore. We have elections and the world doesnt congratulate us. Its become common place in taiwan and become common place because they value the same things we do. I think the elections do hold a message for china. And its more than just one country two systems years with midterm elections and the world does not congratulate us on having made this achievement but its commonplace in taiwan and become commonplace because they value the same things we do. I think the elections to hold a message for china and it is more than just one country, two systems which does get back to some of those fundamental issues. China needs to take a new approach to taiwan, one that recognizes where people in taiwan are on matters of taiwan sovereignty and taiwans relationship with china. Will they do that . We will hear from our guests in that regard and im very skeptical that they will because i think in beijing its an attitude they can predict the future and they understand the needs of history and that somehow history and economics will vindicate them in the long run and i think its an intellectual arrogant way to look at the future and what they need to do is look more closely at the demographics and the trends in taiwan and despite all odds that they will not do that i hope they will. The third thing i think that is election holds it holds lessons for u. S. Taiwan relations Going Forward it offers some new opportunities and the reelection and her position now and its slightly diminished but given the opportunity for u. S. And taiwan to move forward on some things in particular with ford on a freetrade agreement which i would say should be the number one priority in that relationship Going Forward right out of the gate out of the election because it coincides with the opportunity thats been created by that u. S. Side. Got a terrific group of people to talk to us about this today and we will start out with congressman ted, ted is the congressman from florida representing the Third District which he has done for seven years but more relevant to our task today i think is the fact that hes on the House Committee Foreign Affairs related to asian pacific. Hes been a terrific friend and ally of the heritage foundation. Many of the thing takes here in washington focus on asia generally but specifically on taiwan and i dont know if youve heard of this news but congressman is in his final term because remarkably he is keeping a pledge that he was elected and i think that is terrific achievement and im proud of him for having done that. Having worked with him a little bit over the last few years i can tell you one year is putting time for him to make trouble. Im sure he will have a lot to do this coming year and im sure it will go out very strong so were happy to have him here today to talk to us about the specifics of the elections and what holds in store for u. S. Taiwan relations. Congressman. applause i appreciate it. Good morning everybody. I want to get my water ready here. My taiwanese friends weve developed a great relationship and we appreciate your hospitality on everything we have asked and done and you have always been there with taiwan and we appreciate it. Happy new year to everybody. I want to start off just saying congratulations to taiwans president for winning reelection reelection. Her election saturday speaks volumes on taiwans teacher and by winning with the largest margin ever recorded and beating her opponent by more than 18 points it sends a clear message where taiwan and the people of taiwan stand. They stand for liberty and freedom and democracy with no interference from any nation. The president is the modern Ronald Reagan of the asia region. Unfortunately china appears to dismiss the president s victory and her office and that is starting a dialogue with beijing on conditions that taiwan sovereignty and democracy are to be respected and chinas taiwans Affairs Office reiterated that dialogue must be predicated on the acknowledgment that taiwan is part of one china and chinas commitment to applying the one country to systems formula that is trying to be currently used to govern hong kong as a semi autonomous territory and keep in mind the protests in hong kong have brought about the devastation to the hong kong economy and world standings. It has changed the narrative of the Safe International hub for doing business, Business Travel, Business Travel and tourism have declined precipitously during the past seven months and unless things change in hong kong they will continue. It will take years for that economy to recover. China has to be wondering if that effort to take control of the judicial system and the dishonor the fiftyyear agreement that they had made between Great Britain and china was worth it. It was beijings growing influence in the legal system and the performance to handle the protests in hong kong that undoubtably energized the taiwanese people and the opposition to the proposal. China would be wise to apply the lessons they are learning and they are actively learning in hong kong to further actions against taiwan. That is, if you threaten ones freedom, democracy and sovereignty there will be a huge cost paid. Keep in mind the people of hong kong and much of the world realize that hong kong is a province of china. Thats pretty wellwritten. That was in the agreement in 1997 by Great Britain and china. By the people that made that commitment there was no question that hong kong is a province of china. Taiwan is not and has never been part of the prc or the Chinese Communist party. You guys know the history of how taiwan formed when shanghai left and went and they fought the civil war and lost and left to taiwan to develop a new nation. Its the vague policy and i blame our country and some of our leaders, policy of president nixon and carter and Henry Kissinger that allowed the one country to system cloud that confusing cloud of confusion to be maintained for too long. It is time to clear by this confusion before chinas actions escalates more tension in the region and gets to a flashpoint that we dont want to see, as they did in hong kong with the now infamous and misguided extradition law before it is too late. This is something no one wants. We seen enough conflict in this world it i will be 65 in april and ive seen enough conflict. This is something we should Work Together to diplomacy so that nations can prosper and of nations prosper their people prosper and people prosper we are safer. China has accused president tsai ingwen of stealing the victory with populist policies, smears against political rivals and fear mongering against china. Theyve also contributed the results of foreign interference, in particular the United States. This is so false. Its their action. We got singled out along with senator rubio and Chuck Schumer and nancy pelosi and myself as the ones that were causing the dissent in hong kong. The blame for that false sctrictly on beijing with the extradition law that they pushed through. We have written about this and i meant to bring pictures that i dont have and the people of hong kong have experienced freedom and liberty. They have had that for over 70 years. Unfortunately, the people from china of the communist party and president xi, the bureau and the pla which i have coined the cc pc, chinese, and his party complex they have never experienced freedom and liberty for it when you to take that away from somebody it is a force of nature that says no, we will not be suppressed. Again, president tsai ingwen said she is willing to have dialogue with china if there is respect for taiwan sovereignty and democracy and that is all they are asking for it president site is also wise to pin it to the south for Economic Diversification and that is what i want to talk about it where do we go from here connect the people of taiwan has spoken distinctly, clearly that they want to have their sovereignty selfgovernance and so president tsai ingwen to pivet to the south and to increase diplomatic relations with all countries and diversification and investments with other countries so that they are not solely dependent on china. We, countries in the free world, should increase taiwans world acceptance in the form of diplomatic acceptance and reentry into the world organizations like the World Health Assembly and the un but we are one of the first i know in our congress when beijing forced taiwan out of the wha, World Health Assembly, said they could not be read presented there independently. We said this is not right. Taiwan has contributed so much to the world of health with the sars epidemic and they will continue to do that and these are things they know no borders but when you get into epidemiology and diseases they know no borders but we want all hands on deck and for one country to say you cant participate is wrong. One cannot anticipate or believe president xi will change his policies. For him to do so would be admitting a mistake and in china president xi never makes a mistake and he cant afford to. That would show weakness and he cant afford to as i said, especially in lieu of the election within a couple of years. Yet president xi and the ccpc, chinese, and his party complex would be wise to except taiwans willingness to understand this, except the willingness of the status quo. Respect their sovereignty. China has nothing to gain by trying to unify taiwan to the mainland. However, they have much to lose. It will force an International Backlash with countries and companies wanting to divest from china. I see that so clearly and you see that in hong kong. I got businesses that say we are in hong kong or thinking about expanding but we are not now. That is for an area the people agree is a province of china. It will force an International Backlash, like i said, and these companies will want to divest from china. If china accepts the status quo that taiwan is a sovereign and selfgoverning democracy they, taiwan and the world, will all benefit. President xi and china would gain much respect to except president tsai offer and leave them alone. With that, i will conclude my remarks. I appreciate you all letting me come by and talk. I feel very strongly about this and i know as we talk to people from around the world we got our manufacturers looking to do the abc model and that is manufactured anywhere but china because of the regression and the lack of following the rule of law this is something that will continue until china chooses to change their tactics. We cant force china to do anything. I dont want to. But i think we, as democracies around the world, we can have actions change by the way we choose to do business and who we choose to do business. I want to congratulate president tsai for winning a resounding election. We look forward to her leadership and look forward to working with the ambassador and i thank you all for letting me come by and participates. Do you have time for one or two questions connect greats. Down in front. We will get you a microphone. Good morning congressman. After this election we are saying that the Chinese Foreign ministry sending a strong message urging the World Community to adhere to the one china principle but do you see after i want people sending a message to the world that they want to have a democratic side of the world and do you see the International Community starting to open up with after secretary pompeo sending his message congratulatory message and do you see some more countries opening up to be more openly supporting taiwan . I think we will see that. I truly believe that. If you look at hong kong its a province of pushing 8 Million People and 25 of those people are coming out and the removal of freedom and liberty. I have a set of pictures i did not bring what i can describe them to you. I have a blade of grass and an asphalt road with fiber to ask you which one was stronger you could look at it. Asphalt is hard and can crush the grass but when you see grass growing and pushing through asphalt which is more powerful . What that represents is freedom and liberty that you cant suppress that. Thats an innate ability or trait that all humans have that they want to be free and china does not have enough people or money to suppress freedom and so i thank you will see countries and companies further expand, is my prediction in the future, the taiwan and china smart they would accept and respect the offer of president tsai, shes not looking for independence but she wants to be left alone as her people do. They would be well served if they did that. China has already benefited so much from type what taiwan, as the world house, why would he want to rock the vote connect using what happened in icon when those numbers come out you will see a huge drop in their productivities of gdp and i think other countries will recognize that. Other questions . Congressman, you argue that its time to recognize taiwan as a country and will you push u. S. To wreck a nice time on or dual recognition, both china and taiwan . We have. We continue to do that. If you go back to the foundation of shanghai when they fought the war and he was the ruler of china and after world war ii. Then they had a conflict with the communist and he lost and they brought the kmt, to taiwan and form their own nation but since that time they got their own flag, own economy, own form of government and no National Anthem and all military and economic powerhouse. There are 11th trade partner. If china was smart they would not cause disruption where they cant win. Yet, they could overpower taiwan and they could do that but does that pay to their benefit and play to their benefit longterm or will that cause not just regional conflict but do you think other western democracies will sit still and watch democracy in that part of the region that is not causing anyone problems but benefiting entergy bidding . Will be also around and watch that been taken away . That is the question they need to ask the bureau and president xi can say face by changing policies and that will be his decision. I know where this will stand and its 40 years into the making and we had a visit by president tsai and we were honored to be able to sit with her in new york right next to her during a dinner and i thank you will see that happen more around the world and you will see other countries, and reopen relationships with taiwan. We are at a point in the 21stcentury that we dont need the confirmation and we need to expand the nations and expand trade and focus on those that make us stronger. Thank you. That was terrific. Particularly good analogy. I will remember that one. Thats poignant and very applicable to your daily suburban life. I like that analogy. It gives me great pleasure and honor now to bring to the stage sammy. Stanley is taiwans representative to the United States and he can be forgiven if it seems like much longer than 40 years because i think some of us have known stanley for a long time because hes represented taiwan for some 40 years in Foreign Service and in switzerland, malaysia, hungary, many headquartered posts and in fact, other students here in washington in the past. He brings a tremendous amount of wisdom to this job instability and hes been an excellent representative herein washington for all of us who are interested in taiwan issues but with that let me invite stanley to come to the stage and offer his remarks. Well, thank you very much for having me, walter. I think first of all immediately after the Election Results came official in addition to the state department warming encouragement message of congratulations there was one particular gentleman, secretary mike pompeo and he tweeted i quote, the United States congratulates doctor tsai on her reelection in taiwans election. Taiwan once again demonstrates the strength of the robust democratic system. Thank you, president tsai for your leadership in developing a strong u. S. Partnership. We thank him, secretary pompeo, and all taiwans robust democratic system and president tsai leadership in developing the u. S. Partnership. We cannot agree with him more. And here congressman yoho, id like to take this opportunity to thank you very much for more gracious and powerful support. This is brought me back to march 2019 right ear on this stage, the heritage foundation, congressman yoho joined senator of colorado and shared by in the videoconference with president tsai when she was transitioning through honolulu, hawaii and i was sitting beside her and the conversation was so lively, so enjoyable, so inspiring and stimulating. Again, six month ago july 2019 congressman yoho would travel from washington to new york and beat the crazy traffic in midtown manhattan and met with her in the big apple and also attended on gala dinner where she received a major gift from the National Endowment of democracy and Freedom House for her outstanding leadership in defending taiwans sovereignty and democracy. Political freedom, Civil Liberties and human rights. Just to remind you because of all this Great American organization, and ngos, what they have been doing in the writings of them and doing National Endowment, Freedom House and couple of others being blacklisted by china and just yesterday mr. Of the Human Rights Watch was denied entry in hong kong again because of what this organization has been doing something right. So, this is a very important issue here and we always believe that any proud country of the United States, taiwan, big or small is like any proud individual, men and woman in this room. If you dont stand for something you will fall for anything and this is what the january 11 election in taiwan was all about, and equal this is what the robust u. S. Taiwan relations are about. It is about celebration of victory of democracy in action and a triumph of a vibrant and Civil Society and raising freedom of expression, freedom of religion, freedom of the press, market economy, fair and free trade to the rule of law and abiding respect for human rights and Human Dignity trade Regional Peace and stability and those are our shared core values and beliefs in our common interests by all means. I asked the congressman yoho as he righted rightly pointed out democracy may be intercession in ordering a retreat but given the extremely precarious situation in hong kong and given the muslim gulags and underground christians what they have to go through in china the 23 million men and women in taiwan stay the course. They are at the forefront of pushing back day in, day out of this intimidation, infiltration, bullying and nonsense from 800pound colossus, distant cousin across the street however in hiding the postelection speech she kept her calm, her cool, her usual nonprovocative, nonconfrontational approach quoting a resumption of an exchange between two sides of the based on the printable of peace, parity, democracy and the dialogue with no collusion and no political precondition so on january 11 taiwan citizens have their voice and have their choice clearly made and their voice unequivocally hard for a transparent and peaceful process and once again prove that democracy works and works wellin taiwan in such a chinese speaking taiwan. It is absolutely taiwans biggest asset and strength and this brings me back to one of my favorite old sayings that if you want to go west, go longer if you want to go far, go together. No, we never take democracy or taiwans democratic Success Story but it is also about this overwhelming bipartisan support and unwavering commitments of the American People and the u. S. Congress and government and each one of you in this room under numerous others is a Firm Believer that taiwan could become a democracy as it is today and remain a vital partner partner. Rest assured that taiwan will continue to join the u. S. And all likeminded countries in protecting, pursuing the core values, beliefs and common interests, yes, taiwan can help. We are always happy to help. Thank you very much. With that would like to applause applause applause invite the executive director to the stage and his panel. Russell has assembled a Representative Panel of some of the most authoritative opinion on u. S. Taiwan relations imaginable perhaps from 2049 and a csis and George Washington university all longtime experts in their field. With this i turn it over to russell and he will guide us through the conversation on taiwan trade thank you. Okay. Good morning everyone. My name is russell and im the executive executor of the global taiwan entity and on behalf of gti i want to thank congress when ted yoho, ambassador stanley for those exceptional clear and inspirational remarks and i think they help you set the stage for the discussion we are about to have. In seven and also like to think we also have a special issue of our biweekly population that will be released this wednesday, and inhouse analysts providing their assessments on the opportunities and challenges for u. S. Taiwan relations in 2020. So if youre not already subscribed to see all or updates you may go to w. , dot global taiwan our edgy, so in the interest of time i will start with a link the introduction but i do want to highlight a few points. As alluded to earlier by walter, the elections that were held over this weekend were taiwan seventh direct president ial elections, ten un election and there has been three peaceful chance for of power since theyve held their first election in 1990, six the island democracy also has a Voter Participation rate that is the envy of any democracy, i believe the Voter Participation rate of this election that was just held was 74. 9 . With all the votes tallied, by a significant margin of of 18. 5 or 2. 65 million votes. But people in the loony liberal democracy in the chinese speaking world have handed her and her Democratic Party another four years as the president and majority control of the legislative. The 2020 general elections are significant but while the victory is resounding, it has been far from smooth and guaranteed. So much defeat of the party in the november 2018 elections, interpreted as the referendum on her personally and dealing with unprecedented primary for the incumbent president she emerged as a favored candidate to favorite candidate to win the 2020 president ial election and succeeded. The focus today will be on the latter but let me point out the factors i think we can get into in more detail. Third, the turnout of the views. They are not i have not seen the results yet, but given the high turnout rate we have an allstar cast of analysts and strategic thinkers who analyze what those mean in terms of cross regulations and also the responses. To my immediate left we have the Senior Adviser for asia and the director of the project at csi s. Where she works on issues related to to the securities and focus on Chinese Foreign and security policy. Prior to joining csi s. She was also the consultant for various u. S. Government offices including the department of defense as well as the professor of international affairs. Published 22 books over 300 articles and several hundred government reports dealing with contemporary affairs. I challenge anyone in the room who pays attention to the asia and is a and in the u. S. Government. Last but not least, we have said thethedebate cosecretary for the institute and the policy institutes and the force of strategic Defense Industries and military political leadership. Mark has served in a variety of military and the private sector positions including serving 20 years in the u. S. Air force where he worked on intelligence planning and policy. Also he served as the infantry director for china in the office of secretary. Articles and several hundred government reports dealing with contemporary affairs. I challenge anyone in the room who pays attention to the asia and is a and in the u. S. Government. Last but not least, we have said thethedebate cosecretary for the institute and the policy institutes and the force of strategic Defense Industries and military political leadership. Mark has served in a variety of military and the private sector positions including serving 20 years in the u. S. Air force where he worked on intelligence planning and policy. Also he served as the infantry director for china in the office of secretary. Thank you all we have an incredible lineup of speakers each assigned to the specific topics and threads and for the moderated discussion as well as audience q a. I would like his first start off to address the issue of their reactions and implications. Thank you, russell and walter for inviting me to participate in a panel today. Very timely obviously. Everybody is very much interested in the implications, so thereve been several authoritative reactions and the one i paid close attention to is the one out of the Affairs Office and if you read into and find that there are references to all of the right phrases when it talks about the relations on kind of principle 1992 consensus operation to Taiwan Independence there is one phrase think is particularly important and that is as the spokesperson said that Development Across the relations is the right path to promote the ties and common development. This is in fact a policy that is inherited into the other aggressive policies china has pursued over all over the world not just against taiwan. This policy is one they had here, the tactics but the question of course is a placeholder or is this going to be the policy that we see Going Forward. Very i think probably most of us would agree in a much different direction and lets remember for the first time january 2 last year included in his statement that we saw in the 40th anniversary that that is the is an option but i think that china will conclude is that its not convenient to draw the judgment of this inquiry dont want to spend my going into great detail in the results of id want to hand over a couple of points i think china is going to Pay Attention to. This is the second horse that they have put forth a candidate that wasnt very competitive. I is as much a kid and so im going to list the negatives for can they beand ata and ineffective candidate you of is part. That is would have to supports the people are going to were going to be questioning me think whether a party they can either look at Going Forward. What is so mentioned the views that i think this is a is a rematch against. But is that oh so the negative side of the ledger so all of our concerns and we shouldnt let down the garden their guard and be complacent Going Forward nevertheless the political operations as active as they were appeared to have not had much success. And one is of course the candidate won more votes than last time you got more votes and if we look at the party vote in the people are going to be questioning i think whether this is a party that they can even work with going, forward russell manchin the youth and i think this is the biggest challenge how do you win over the youth and the Public Opinion polls and taiwan that show growing support for independence and diminished support for reunification are a large part in vote, so the demographics operate against beijing, but that sort of some of it, also the negative side of the ledger is that theres a united front tactics failed so all of our concerns and we should not let down our guard and be complacent Going Forward but nevertheless the political influence operations as active as they were appeared to have not had much success but i really want to say a little bit about the positives that they will draw, the positive lessons and one is of course that the canteen candidate actually won more votes than last, time so hungry you had more avoids. And if we look at the party vote in the legislative un, both the campaign and tpp got about the same, they both got 13 seats at the front of their parties, so that is essentially about 33 of the vote. So what this tells us is that this was an anti han vote. People did trust, scion ring, i, think to defend taiwan sovereignty but they were not necessarily racing the dps with the chinese fear is that there will be a growing support for the tpp. The big story is the emergence of more third parties. Last time there was a new power party. This time it is the taiwan peoples party, which got 11. 2 of that party votes, and that is not inconsequential. And as beijing looks for potential partners Going Forward one would think they would see coas a potential partner. I think the key empty as well, which was not rejected by the people of taiwan and so i think that is worth keeping in mind. A few other positives just to take off this is it i think despite their concerns about tying when, they were conclude that ultimately she is not going to push for the jury independence for. They fear that she will, particularly unencumbered by the need for reelection. I think they believe that like trump, the Vice President is essential conduit for green ideas into the government but i think at the end of the day they know that sign is not going to take the same kind of adventurous moves. I dont think theyre that worried about the International Community about china and the reasons of course for the most important reason for their confidence Going Forward is there involving military capabilities, said there will be voices in china, and there already, are those nautical if you weeks ago by juan dicey who used to be the deputy in the taiwan Affairs Office, essentially saying, our strategy has failed and we should adopt a harder line approachs, and i think that this is not going to prevail as their policy. I think xi jinping has a lot on his plate, slowing economy, the ongoing protests coming in hong kong, tension ongoing with the United States as well. So i think that jinping will continue to say unification is inevitable, of course, taiwan as part of china. But i dont think that he is going to fundamentally find this is the time to conclude that china needs to have a completely new approach. If we go back to his january 2nd speech, which i think is important to continue to study, s although she jinping is pushing to make progress on unification with taiwan, i personally do not sense that he is urgent about this. I believe he is not set a hard deadline of 2049. Some of my friends in china say, he will not be alive then anyways so it does not matter, but i continue to believe that there is no hard deadline that he has set. So, i think we will see that china in not going to drop its preconditions for cost predict it will continue to learn taiwan and United States not to take provocative moves to challenge chinese sovereignty. The chinese of course our not going to take what tsai ingwen said in her victory speech at face value but they will Pay Attention i think it important to note that when tsai talked about her commitment to peace and staple prostate relations, she said we have maintained nonprovocative nonadventurous attitude that has prevented serious consequences for breaking out in the taiwan strait. There are certainly people in china who study taiwan who agree with that. They may not be able to say so publicly. I actually think that they understand that she has not for example, pushed for a referendum that plies to independence as they have. Theyre not going to accept tsai ingwens preconditions. Preconditions their dialogue she talked about parity, for example, and accepting the existence of both sides. Im quite confident that china it going to accept the existence of the republic of china. But i personally think that the chinese our unlikely to conclude that this is their time to to really use military force. The risks are high. Its not just a matter of seizing taiwan, its a matter of holding it. It it matter of winning over their people of taiwan. They could face a certain state. But to many people talk about them publicly. Look at what happened in hong kong, well just have to ask their question to their people and do their people taiwan height for their own sovereignty. I personally believe that these essays they continue to talk about china having an important period of strategic opportunity. And i believe that this includes his assessment that Peaceful Development of crossstrait relations, their right strategy and that peaceful unification has brought unachievable. That said, they will continue of course their building up of their military capabilities. So that if the time comes, that the leadership decides to use force, the pla will be prepared. But i would argue that having a decisive military exit advantage it their only factor that they will consider in making such a decision. Thank you. Thanks much. I know we framedtake those ways. But i think take away a lot of that in terms of watch type a can take away from this and watch washington can take away from their Election Results. In parsing beijings likely reactions. Not only have we gotten a view of what beijings view of Cross Strait Relations will be. I would like to ask Doctor Center to give us a view of u. S. Taiwan relations, how we got here now and where we may be going in the next 40 or 50 years. Thank you very much. Thank you to the sponsors for inviting me. Im very happy to be here and i have a long perspective on this issue, and so my focus is really what this means for the improvement, a remarkable improvement that has been taking place in the u. S. Approach toward taiwan in recent years. And, so this was an element of uncertainty in that process, result of the Taiwan Election were an element of uncertainty and when i see, of course, that we are having continuity now in taiwan and therefore i think this continues, this improvement will continue. This element causing difficulty in my assessment of it, so what i would like to do in the remarks that i have, i want to focus on this issue of what this means for the continuation of its positive trajectory in a u. S. Taiwan relations. What i have to do first of all this talk about some of those improved relations to explain that, and then look at the causes of it and see how the elections has changed that in one degree or another, and given evaluation and then look at the four elements of uncertainty Going Forward. So, im going to do that in just a few minutes. It should not take too long. The manifestations of this is something that is not highprofile and that is good i, think you can see that there are benefits to that and yet, it is quite remarkable and frankly speaking, ladies and gentlemen ive been looking at u. S. Taiwan relations since before the taiwan relations act and ive never seen a period like this. This is the most positive period that i have seen in the relationship. The arms sales relationship just goes right through. These extraordinary diplomatic statements, mr. Pompeos remarks were referred to, that never happened before. The state department in the past year has always been the gatekeeper, to limit, or the one that makes sure that other parts of the government dont do more things are visavis taiwan, where is today, the state department is really in the forefront, pushing new rhetoric, new support, publicly associating themself more and more with a taiwan, as mr. Pompeo did in reaction to the election. The u. S. Support covers the new indopacific strategy of the United States, the support for taiwan, working with taiwan together in the pacific islands. But even have formed in the united nations. This is something that was not done for a long time and now it is again, and so and then we have these other moments on the trade area and the u. S. Government is supporting taiwan in it investment abroad, working in conjunction with taiwan to do these sorts of things and so, what is the cause . What are the causes of this kind of actions on the part of the United States, and i think there are several but i would point to, there are four, first is beijings, pressures bridgings pressure on taiwan are trying to change the status quo and the United States does not want the status quo to be changed in a coercive way and so this is something that obviously gets u. S. Policy attention. And there is taiwans location. In a critical, area dealing with the indopacific strategy, if you are moved, as the United States government has, to a much more competitive type of relationship, really rivalry with china in many respects, the anti ones location looms very large in this kind of indopacific and then there is taiwans democracy and free market economy, which earlier speakers have talked about and this is very important for its own sake but its also important if you see yourself, as many in the United States government and elsewhere now do, you are in a competition with china for values and rule of law and this sort of thing in the world affairs, and taiwan looms much larger and much more important, and then of course you have the idea that a relationship with taiwan can serve as a way of imposing costs on china, and there are american officials who feel that way, so, these four drivers of the relationship, i think remain quite strong and have gotten stronger over the last several years with an impact that we have a much more active relationship with taiwan, but there are bricks, and this is i think where we see the most remarkable change in american policies. The things that were breaks in the past dont matter as much as they used to. The first one is that you dont want trouble with china and you dont move forward with how warm because you might have trouble with china. Well, weve had two and a half years now of u. S. Affront towards beijing, in one area or another, so clearly that is not that important in american policy making at this time, the idea that beijing will be upset about the sorts of things, i think that is less important than it was a three, under the obama government, under previous governments that were very concerned with a strict interpretation of the one china policy. I dont think this government is nearly as concerned about that and for the reasons they are in the secure rivalry with china. The second point is that the United States did not want to have trouble in the region, that relations with taiwan would be here negatively in the region in east, asia among station partners and allies, and this as well i think its been overtaken by events because the u. S. Has done all of these things in the region that are so detrimental to beijing and so this is just another element, and so the salient of this it seems to me is less than in american calculating of its policy toward taiwan, and the third element here is that the past record with the taiwanese government is that taiwan used support from the United States, and i think it did, do for political advantage for themselves and what they move in areas that were very irresponsible visavis beijing as a result of the warning here, is dont improve religion with taiwan because they will take advantage of this. Well, tying one was the person who used to have to clean up after the previous government you can to washington tried to reassure people shes very experienced with this issue, and i personally have tremendous confidence that she knows how to manage these kinds of issues and obviously will not see the need for exploiting it for domestic reasons in taiwan, but there is the fourth reason, the fourth break, and that is still there and very important that is beijing. Beijing is very powerful and vonnegut perspective on this issue which i think is an excellent perspective, saying that they will be patrolled but they have great power. And they can do all sorts of things if they want to do visavis the United States, so that still is a big break for opening the relationship, so it has to be done carefully and what i have seen over the past several years is that it is pretty careful. There is a consensus between people in the congress to deal with taiwan and the Administration Officials seems to be a consensus and i think it is pretty clear that there is, that foreign movement is justified and we should move stepbystep in this regard. I have not seen a change in the stated one china policy, the u. S. Has a one china policy but if you look at the history of u. S. Relationships with taiwan after the normalization with beijing, its been interpreted in different ways by different governments. Most governments have been pretty strict in interpreting the one china policy, but several have not and i think we are in a phase where we are being, flexible much more flexible about this from the u. S. Side than were used to be, and so when i look at the drivers, i look at the brakes i say well, i think the Forward Movement is in improving relations and doing these various things on the, on economic, issues we may get to the point of an fta, as walter talked about, or diplomatic issues and so forth but the relationship i think will get ever stronger growing forward and i think it will remain, i hope it, does within the confines of the american one china policy which is not the chinese one china principle, and it can be defined a fairly broadly and with, i, think good results for the United States and for taiwan. So, that looks pretty good, but we have uncertainties, the first would be the election, we get a lot in taiwan a leader that was not saying one they wanted to move taiwans policy in a different direction, on issues that are important to the United States, and there i think we could have had a very good this wasnt uncertainty for me. We dont have that uncertainty anymore so Going Forward im pretty confident that this is the way the direction is going to, go but we still have three other uncertainties. One is the president trump. He is unpredictable, avowedly so, and he might make a deal with china and that deal might involve trading seriously the relationship with taiwan, that is certainly something china would want so this is something we have to think about, and then the other part is that were going to have an election in this country at the end of this year, and there are people in the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton and others who dont want to have that strict interpretation of one china policy and jake sullivan, who was voted during the 2016 campaign, a senior officer in the Clinton Campaign said there would be no change in our taiwan policy well, people like jake are still around and they could be in the Democratic Party Going Forward in 2020 so we need to watch this sort of thing, to see if it would lead to change. My point is that both donald trump, believe it or not, and the Democratic Party, if they choose to move in this direction, are constrained because of the change in american policy toward china. I think this change toward a harder approach or tougher approach, particularly towards a distrust of beijings position, in other, words there is a fundamental sense here that beijing has tripped United States. It is distrustful and duplicitous, and this kind of send a strong in the congress, strong in the administration, so if you make deals with beijing, do you want to sacrificetoone as a result of this when you dont really know what youre going to get with your deal and so i think i was going to be fairly serious on mr. Trump if he chooses to go in this direction and on the future democratic president , if they choose to go in this direction of accommodating beijing and restricting relations with taiwan as a result, but then you have the third uncertainty that isnt resolved and that is beijing itself. And, here i just would point out and i think some might agree, that yes, i certainly feel the same way that bonnie did, laid out, as far as where jinping is going to go, but you, know there are an awful lot of experts that dont feel that way. There is a lot of publicity now talking about the dangers of the situation, and it comes from the council in various organizations are proposing this sort of thing, the Ran Corporation analysts and various other analysts are talking about this type of thing, the danger of the situation, and so we have to be cognizant of that. Are we right and thinking that it is going to be okay that the general approach of beijing continue . I personally agree with that and i dont have, as a persuasive argument, my argument is this, the chinese have been confronted over the past two and a half years by one affront from the United States after another. Xi jinping is taking the lead in dealing with donald trump and in dealing with these a front. The cover all sorts of issues. What indeed have they done . Visavis the United States . They try to avoid confrontation with the United States. They still do it, so xi jinping has this strongman image but in practice, when youre dealing with United States, you dont see that kind of confrontation, so i say to myself, you, know if the u. S. Manages its relationship with taiwan carefully, i can see Forward Movement where xi jinping does not want to confront the United States on this issue, maybe later but not now, so i will stop there. Thank you. Thank you so much. That was superb, doctor, sutter and i think really it highlights the methodical analysis that you bring to the question and one could quibble him perhaps argue with the conclusion but its hard to argue with the analysis, and the methodology that you applied in analyzing the different drivers and breaks, and uncertainties, breaking down the various variables, and last, i would like to turn it over to mark stokes, for discussions on the topics that he addressed today but really looking at really, the history of u. S. Approaches to taiwan policy and where we would be going in the future. Mark . , thank you very, much, russell and appreciation also to the walter Hurd Foundation and also to you, the audience who will come out today on a monday morning. I would also like to take time out just for a second to can express condolences to the families of the republic of China Armed Forces officers and airman who lost their lives over this month in a tragic helicopter crash. They made the ultimate sacrifice for their own country and if im not mistaken, i think just acknowledging the sacrifices i think is certainly warranted. It has been a lot of discussion on the outcomes of the election. The remarks and i will give here briefly predate the election just equally if what happened to the presidency or a majority in the aisle why, but with the election behind us now i think former u. S. Policy perspective, there is no bad time, really, to do a fundamental policy review of u. S. Policy toward taiwan and our Cross Strait Relations more generally, and what i mean by policy review, i mean it is not just in 1983 1994 policy review looks at political issues but tactical, issues but something that looks at the fundamentals of our policy that has endured for at least since 1978, 79 if not even earlier depending how far back we want to go, interest in the organs of the u. S. One china policy. But there are in my view a few good reasons, actually and i start with a statement objective reality, and bear in mind a statement of objective reality is separate from the u. S. Policy approaches. That objective reality is that taiwan, under its current constitution, exists as an independent sovereign state, and this is sort of removing myself from the u. S. Policy perspective i just looking at straightup objective reality. Certainly, i think if you asked the majority of his to taiwan i think they would agree. The passport says rotc, in, parentheses taiwan, and so i think it is something that on both sides of the political spectrum, at least within mainstream, votes out of the political spectrum, whether it is green or, blue would agree on that as well. The formulation, by the, way actually comes from so this is the tide ministration in the last four years has, and senior officials on have made similar formulations in one form or another. Three reasons why, number one, that is the first one in terms of objective reality. U. S. Policy is based upon a narrative and whoever useful that narrative maybe there is going to be room for fundamentally misunderstanding, which could lead to conflict down the road, so that is one reason why in terms of trying to bring u. S. Policy in line with the subject reality, of course also status quo as a loaded term but the status quo at the time was the existence of two legitimate government on both sides. We have an authoritarian regime, that will be the former rnc, in my view, the rnc change fundamentally, that has evolved into a democracy and on the other side you have the republic of, china the pc, and what would argue that in terms of legitimacy, to actually has more legitimacy if you believe in the concept of sovereignty, so with this in, mind the second reason fundamental review would be warranted is that if we are sincere about at least wanted to create the conditions not get involved in the middle to create the conditions for some sort of reinvigorated political dialog on both sides, the u. S. Should assume a delegation to at least try to do that by balancing legitimacy on both sides, by evening the Playing Field so to speak, not necessarily the military stands just in terms of an International Political stance, something can be done. When you see statement that come out about arms, sales will be able to, see more companies to engage the other side and those, things statements like that. , thirdly in terms of fundamental u. S. Principles, and our interest in our principles in terms of liberal democracies, if you view our one china policy as a zero sum game, we can only have diplomatic relations with one side not the others then we give legitimacy the pr see every day, legitimacy was the chief of the 20th 1979 communique which completely withdrew diplomatic relation from the see an exchange that and turn that around for the pc. That was fine then. So in terms of u. S. Policy options for the future, one could quibble about whether these are all correct, i think the first is accommodation, code a commission particularly in moving u. S. Policy more towards formulation than the one china principle. This may have had some, maybe five or ten years ago, this had some growing support here in the d. C. Area and i think now it has become significantly marginalized thanks in large part is she jinping and some of his actions in hong kong as well as policies and flexible policies toward taiwan. The Second School of thought is by far the dominant one, i dont mean status quo in the town strait contacts but i mean in terms of u. S. China relations and that status quo is of course that u. S. Policy got about how relations act and tempered in some cases by three john communiques, as a tempered because joe communique has been confirmed by successive administrations but status quo, the policy in general, sort of maintaining in general as they have been for quite awhile, normalization is a third step, find normalization, that is breaking out of a u. S. One china policy and the recognition in fairly short order of taiwan. So taiwan can just, in terms of using that term, it takes various forms but this certainly has long had sway in the u. S. To some degree or another. The Fourth School of fought it is one that you go by many names and was actually in some ways dominant in say, the late 19 fifties, 1960s, perhaps all the way up to 1977 and that would go by different names, one could use the term the u. S. One china to government policy, it could be referred to as a soft balancing approach but this sort of fourth option is one which one does not necessarily question u. S. Policy, does not challenge that, but still does not want to move toward a more normal and stable constructive relationship with taiwan, staying clear of the sovereignty issue and focusing more on balancing legitimacy so it is legitimacy over sovereignty, so these are the four schools of thought, so whether or not that could guide u. S. Policy if there was to be a major review, but other things which we would throw out there in terms of lastminute things to consider in my view is i think there are serious considerations being given to the joint statement between senior u. S. Policy makers and those on taiwan. When i see a joint statement, one could use the word john communique, that is a loaded term because automatically the thought goes back to lets say, for, example the jon communique of 1972, theoretically i would note that the u. S. China one china policy in 1972 yet we still believe that a joint communicate would be consistent with a one china, policy then we recognize the rnc, we did not recognize there are seattle 1979 formerly but john communicate, we will go back to that, term a joint statement, between the two sides, why do we have a joint statement or dont communicate with any government around the world . There are fundamental principles involved with, that i am not, aware there are a lot of examples of how a joint statement to align, policies to become a fundamental interest in publics you can communicate your own constituencies boat in the United States and on taiwan, so that is one, number two, i would say considering the chairman of a i. T. Either at the secretary level or maybe undersecretary, will hiding meaning you put it on the website and then that individual he or she would be a chairperson. It would be in my view consistent with the one china policy i consistent with the taiwan relations act. Along those lines, why not make a righty taipei director a position. That is another consideration. Other things, in terms of looking at the fundamental structure of u. S. China relations, in terms of the different forms to go on, there is the juicy to have an accord to try to break that. Thank, you we have, that but other Security Side we have moderate, talks we have the parties, fantasy at talks but there is other importance and our committees are from the she considered. For, example if we did make the air at the chairperson either assistant secretary or undersecretary, maybe consider modeling a Bilateral Committee with some highlevel mechanism on what we had with beijing, highlevel mechanism on people to people talks . To me, it is kind of interesting because that was built for something that we have with taiwan, people people exchange, Cultural Education exchanges, something to be able to bring everything that we already have in one sort of form and then that brings it to a higher level to get it to the attention of conservatives. Along these, lines other key issues in terms of our u. S. Interest in taiwan, things like a senior Bilateral Committee on supply Chain Security and Defense Industrial expropriation or Congress Details of that as needed. At the Civil Society level, in my view, it makes a lot of sense in my view to establish and populate and energize the National Committee on u. S. Taiwan relations. Again, modeled in part after the national u. S. China relations that were established 1965 or 1966, so, that is another concept and then finally in my view there should be an expansion at the Civil Society level of china dialog, theres plenty going on between china, japan china and the, u. S. U. S. , japan but certainly looking at other potential partners, i would argue the first step is the philippines. Why the philippines . Because they have an election coming up in just another year in a half or two and Election Integrity is going to be very important but i think at the Civil Society level there could be a lot could we learn from taiwans experience and also it integrating taiwan into northeast asia in terms of what we already have going on in japan, taiwan and the United States. So, with that, i think you are. Much mark, i was very forwardlooking and a lot of ideas that we can certainly discuss in the queue and i. We have a moment for q a, there will be a mic to go around and so, do keep your hand up, i would like to exercise the moderate prerogative at this point to just tee up a couple of questions before we get to the audience cohen, but i want to pick up on something bonnie mentioned and that is, you basically provided an assessment that the likely reaction beijing will have. What do you think it will take to fundamentally reassess its taiwan policy . I think we struggle with this and asked us all the time, why isnt beijing doing this . What do you think it will take for beijing to understand the situation and perhaps change course . Well, one thing i did not talk about is the linkage between this issue and domestic politics in beijing, and i think there is a perception that this issue is related to legitimacy of the party and she jinping personally so i think that is fundamentally what has to be addressed. But there cannot be, i think, a fundamental rethink of this policy toward taiwan in a more positive direction as long as there is, what i, believe a framework in beijing and a domestic political situation but the leader of the party is very vulnerable on this issue. This is the sovereignty claim. So i would go so far as to say that we really need to have radical change in the political system if you will, and many people argue that even if there were democracy in Mainland China there might still be this rapid sense of ownership toward taiwan, that this might not necessarily lead to more tolerance toward the idea of Self Determination in taiwan, so i think even that is a question mark, which is one of the reasons why im passing this long. You have a sense in terms of what you think might you are asking what will make beijing be nice toward taiwan . I am more worried about the opposite, and so i think that is much more likely than what you are asking for, and i think if you look at it that way the other point that you brought up, and i think this is an important one and i do want to bring this up in the human eye is, what is the future . I think that is really important, looking for a responsible Opposition Party in taiwan and after having lost this election by quite a significant margin, you, know what do you think is going to happen within that party and the future . I think it is a very important question. As i, said they did well on the party list, and we will have actually increased by three seats overall and so i think the real question is whether the party itself reforms, whether some of these older generation people move aside, make way for the younger generation, whether they try to redefine themselves as an indigenous party, they argue, people i talked to in the came to see who would like to be the taiwan , not to china. That may be a bridge too far in the immediate future but they have to figure out their messaging and their policies and of course, fundamentally have to examine what their policy is going to be Going Forward towards bridging. Are they simply going to stick to the 1992 consensus or are they going to come up with new policies . And if they do not revised the policies Going Forward, then i doubt that they will be able to win support so the most important thing is party reform a generational change. Okay, and with that open it up for the audience q a. Please keep your hands, up wait for the mike, made sure to state your name and your affiliation and please try to keep her comments and questions brief. In the middle, over here in the center. Maybe just passed the microphone down. Im from this panel total news agency. Bonnie, you mentioned you think that beijing is more likely to go in a tougher direction. Does that mean we are going to see a continuation of its current tactics like poaching utah was diplomatic allies or are we going to see new tactics . Because the existing ones apparently do not work in chinas favor. Thank you. Thank you for the, question and give me an opportunity to elaborate on this, because i probably did not stressed enough in my introductory comments that i do think that china is going to ratchet up pressure on taiwan. They have been an ever growing toolbox, and one of the articles in global times over the weekend even mentioned there are big policy toolbox things that they can do. We have seen a great deal in the military and diplomatic area, i want to lean diplomatic allies remaining, i would not be surprised, if they continued to go after those and maybe even one in the near term, under the taiwans foreign minister as we speak is traveling in guatemala, perhaps, i dont know this for a fact, but i wonder if this reflects concern that beijing is going to move very quickly to steal another one of taiwans diplomatic partners, so i think they will continue to do that, and there is much more they can do in the military realm, one of the most notable things is in addition to flying and operate in the navy around taiwan was the march 31st crossing of the taiwan, straight the first time really in 20 years that there was a deep incursion across the central line. I would look to the economic sphere, you know . Beijing has not done very much to harm taiwans economy, and really with the exception of and taiwan has shown an ability to attract tours from other countries but if china believes the poor Economic Performance will help prevent the tpp from staying in power Going Forward then there are other things they can do to try to damage taiwans economy and it also goes to the issue what walter talked about earlier, how strongly would they oppose a u. S. Taiwan fta . You have not seen taiwan sign any new free trade agreement, of, course since they were signed with singapore and new zealand. Gentleman overturned a hat. Yes. Thank, you and good morning, so the anti infiltration law that was passed early january in taiwan, i am just wondering if you can share your observations on how this will play duke taiwans politics. Will it cause additional fractures inside the committee and also will it impact the Chinese Communist parties operation inside taiwan . The editor filtration act and occasions for enforcement. I dont want to take that question . I would see do what both of you had to say. I tend to focus more on u. S. Policy rather than looking at implications within taiwan. I think without getting into the substance of the legislation itself which i have not read i would think there are those concerns within the Opposition Party that the new legislation would target such exchanges it considers to be legitimate cross strait exchanges however, dubious such activities maybe, i think the key will be in enforcement, of any legislation so that it appears at least from public reporting about the legislation but it will at least provide more Enforcement Mechanisms and potentially deterrence by increasing by ends, and imprisonment on violations of that act and so i think again, the key would be in the enforcement and that will determine how effective such legislation will be Going Forward. Over, here peter humphrey. Im peter, henry at an Intelligence Analyst and former diplomat. Two questions what slicing the salami a bit. Is it really necessary for a lower level Foreign Service officers to resign from the Foreign Service after being pushed in taiwan . And second of all, very concerned about the fact that taiwan represents a gap in Network Systems. Is there a way at all but we can integrate taiwans radars with our radars in japans radars . Is there any way we can track what is coming from both on beta Hainan Island with a continuous profile rather than this huge interruption by taiwan . A little interaction question. On a lot of question, im sure mark will have some views, i think these are really more than technical questions, there questions of political will. Clearly, if we wanted to Network Systems like pack three radar in taiwan and other Missile Defense capabilities, we could do that so, i mean, these are always i think political questions. On your first question, there is a longstanding set of things that the United States has done as a matter of practice that are not things that were ever written into law, and of course one of those is what Foreign Service officers have to do, more Time Military officers had to retire and it did not temporarily but they no longer do, several officials from taiwan are really still not able to go on a regular basis, these are all things that could be easily changed, . Right so, they are simply a matter of practice, not a matter of law and i think there is a strong argument to be made for why they should no longer be adhered to. These are things that i think hamper our ability to implement our policies and do what is necessary for american interests and so, there is a little list of things that are in that category so i would share your concern about that. I agree with bonnie. The restrictions that we have our selfimposed, and they include, in the past, forcing service Foreign Service officers to resign, correct me if im wrong but in general in the u. S. Active duty officers, for example, the used to be a list of activity officers being a solidarity, that certainly has changed, but there are still plenty of restrictions there and these restrictions are imposed based upon some arbitrary sense of definition of what is official are not official, but in my view we say it is unofficial, event so, if we say it is unofficial, them by george it is an official so i would point that out, or if we had a ministry of Foreign Affairs, if we see it as an, official it is an official and our Network Systems that goes back to the same issue. The restrictions on this we are based on how you define your relations are. Not what having a shared, common operational picture on radar picture, air surveillance, picture would not be considered an official relation . I dont think so. You can finagle and you can massage in anywhere you like. Same thing for the undersea picture, same thing in general, there are all kinds of things we would need to do. I would offer one last comment here and that one of the things in the near term, that there should be a lot more emphasis right now on the issue of readiness. Basically, because, u. S. Just in, case there is some kind of use of force u. S. Should be doing a close look on its ability to respond to use of force, people generally dont focus on preparation of the Armed Services but in the past, the services are in the sierra and it should be looking at our readiness to be able to respond, and also of, course working to enhance their readiness, to this an issue that really worn significant attention over the next six months. Okay, and with that we actually did a run at a time but we do i believe have lunch outside and please feel free to engage the speakers if they are around, to catch them before they run off but thank you again, walter, and the foundation for hosting todays events with great high and please stay tuned to further events that we have in store for the rest of the year. Thank you all and please join me in thanking