Talking about the international economy. Lets take it a step further and ask crystal lena to join us. Shes the new managing director of the new chief of the imf, lets see what her prognosis is for your markets outside of the United States. Welcome. So happy to have you here. So lets get right into it. We heard an upbeat view of the u. S. Economy and complaints of the global economy. Lets start with the u. S. Despite everything mr. Kudlow just said, we have seen the slow down in u. S. Growth this year and a slump in manufacturing decline in business investment, from your purge, thats your outlook for the u. S. Economy and the coming year. Well, the u. S. Is in a good place. And people in this room have contributed to that. What we have is history expansion, lowest in the last 50 years of unemployment. What we particularly see is that wages are going and wages of low paid workers are out facing wage growth on average, thats driven by productivity gains. Theyre porimportant to recogni. You are right, it is manufacturing agricultural on the rest of the economy. What we see consumptions being the driver of that good growth. We see in the United States like everywhere for a long period of low Interest Rates, leading to what . More leverage. And thats inhou household corporate. We see it is something to be mindful of because we cant make a prediction that would be never a financial stress. What we see is firms going more often than not to nonFinancial Institutions. That means higher risk. We have to watch it. This is a liability. We also see in the United States room to do more for the americans. I was listening outside of larry talking about the next generation of policy measures of this administration to continue. It would be good to target where they can be a boost effort in the economy and i would say last but not least, u. S. Economy tend to do better if there is less than certainty in trades. We have been the institution that loves to wrestle with numbers. We assess that trade tensions are costing the worlds economy 700 billion by next year. More important than the number is the break down. Only onethird of this number comes from taxes directly. Really . 63 comes from uncertainty. Uncertainty. 4 comes from productabivity loss. Tensions are handled but double value chains and more impact on productivity. Dealing with certainty would be really great for growth in the u. S. And elsewhere. Just to wrap up the u. S. Though. Are you seeing in the coming year of 2020, a continued slow down of the u. S. Economy or stabilizing . It is 2. 4 for this year. Based on todays assessment, we see a little bit of slow down, next year not by much. We still see very vibrant consumer demand driven by what we just described. Services are doing quite well. How would manufacturing be affected next year if we had less trade certainty, we can expect a good number there. So if we pull the land and asking you the same question globally, the imf in october is lower growth, what are you seeing in 2020 . Do you see a rebound . For next year we are projecting 3. 4 . Thats to say a rebound. But, we are saying theyre quite significant downsize risk for the forecast. It would come from economies that particularly slow this year, being at least less slow next year or rebounding. Turkey is doing a little better. We also are recognizing that there are a number of i hope people here would Pay Attention to that those. We have 40 economies that are growing 5 or more. Lets start there. Where are the bright spots . I would start from asean doing well among indonesia of a club of 5 or more. Asean contributes to the growth of 10 . This is just about the u. S. Contributes to Global Growth. Africa, people are not paying enough attention to. They are right for Good Investments where growth is 7 or 8 or 9 . They are done well to reform their business environment. I came from senegal. We do see two vulnerabilities in the world that we have not seen actually in our october forecast. One is india slowing down more than anticipated. Two, unrest. Very clearly people on the streets mean that the economy mattis slowing down. In hong kong and chile and columbia and lebanon. Whether this unrest momentum will be sustained is downsize to that forecast. Lets go to the dragon in the room, china. The second largest economy, what are you expected to see there . A lot of the economy attributed the growth slow down to china. China along of its double digit growth year contributed a lot. Do you see it stabilizing or slumping more. You are absolutely correct. China contributing to Global Growth slowing down, thats affecting the numbers. This year, we are expecting to grow at 6. 1 . This is still within their forecast of projection of 6 to 6. 5 but of the low end of the forecast. Next year for the first time, we project china do grow 5. 8 . It is partially because of processes of shipping to high speed of high quality growth, shifting for an independent growth to domestic assumption. So if you look at the numbers, how trade tensions affecting the world economy, china has more of that green pack just because it is more expert oriented and the economy of china. No good meals for the members. China does have space to boost its economy that what we are recommending and what they are looking to a moderate action on the monitor policies side. Stimulus that this time is not going to be infrastructure project, this is what china used to do for infrastructure spending. Now, theyre more oriented of working on tax cuts as a measure, like a little bi bit china certainly has a large space to boost their Service Sector by opening the financial sector. I was in china about a week ago, all conversations from president xi down to heads of important regulators were above china being determined to open a financial service, very interesting, i met support to the regulatory agency. China has a debt issue. They dont want to feed more debt, they want to credit the growth of debt. They do have they are leverage like many in this low Interest Rate environment. They are recognizing that one specific area they need to concentrate on small banks that they are more vulnerable. They recognize that there has to be state of enterprise reform. Whats happening is because of uncertainty which i think is the new normal. Theyre a bit more reluctant than a year ago to more aggressively to tackle reform. You mentioned india. I want to ask you, do you think well ever see india sort of taking on the role china has played in recent years. A lot of ceos i know and others around the world, looking at india as the next big economy that could possibly go into double digit growths for some period of time. They are right to do that because of the bright spot i talked about, and so to answer your question, india has that potential. South asia overall, our country of average age population of 27 years. Just think of the aging population of the advance economy and how thats attracted to growth and we have this youthful country. They are mindful that they have to be much more serious around wellimplemented reforms. They are at the moment looking into into investments. Will they be the next china, double digits and double growth . A lot of hope in this room. They helicopter to make this come true. Now, we want to go to questions. Questions in the audience on the global economy. Martin . Yes, you touched on africa and two things that we have seen in africa really are limited, one is corruption. The second is volatility. I think it is 55 or 57 molecules moving to different directions. You mentioned young people and the aging of population and birthrates and potential. Bags of potential, it does not seem to work. The point you just made is finally sinking in the mind of good members of leaders. I am encouraged of what i hear in kenya of a recognition that unless they are serious about approving corruption, never mind what theyll do. Theyll attract investors. We also have to recognize it takes two to tanglo. If they make the efforts and yet nothing happens, we make the power of the aggressive leadership in africa. What we are determining to do is work harder on providing the big picture of investment conditions in countries in africa and differentiate you make a very important point. It is a big continent with so many countries. Those that are doing well and work with the Investment Community and with people in this room to create longer term, growth on the bases of good government. Other questions . We heard about Interest Rates low for a long time. It is 250 trillion debt in the world or Something Like that right now. Do you think well sit here with 500 trillion in debt and Interest Rates lower around the world. Is it on that concern level right now . Very interesting. That was the most debated issue. Low for longer and forever. And so the conclusion in the room was twofold and thats actually where we stand. We need to appreciate low Interest Rates as a contributing factor of growth the last year. If we did not have low Interest Rates, growth this year would have been half a percentage point lower. 2. 5 , we are lingering in the recession territory, thats not happening. But, when it is prolonged, what happens is in search for yield, Financial Institutions and noninstitutions are taking excessive risks. Sooner or later, risks may come to bite us. We have to recognize that the under line reasons for low Interest Rates like we talked about the market is the Sleeping Beauty called productivity. So many of us including the fund is saying wait a minute, we cant possibly only saying the conversation to monitor policy. We have to talk about fiscal policy and structure reforms. We have to wake up Sleeping Beauty and get a boost at growth coming from productivity growth and the fund we are doing f for what are the risk associated of low Interest Rates . Lets look at the risks and two, how can we expand the policy conversations way beyond monitoring policy . We have to leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you. Our Live Campaign 2020 coverage continues thursday at 7 00 p. M. Eastern with President Trump in toledo, ohio, how to keep America Great rally, watch live on cspan 2 or listen on the go with our cspan radio app. During the National Security commission on Artificial Intelligence conference in washington, d. C. It is my distinct pleasure at this time to introduce our senator from iowa. If you can join me to welcome our senator to make some remarks. Good afternoon everyone, how is the day going for you
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