Good afternoon, im the director and associate fellows of the american society. Im happy to host this panel, last december, Andres ManuelLopez Obrador won in july 2018 in a landslide victory on a left wing platform that would promote the respect of human rights improve the economy, work to end the ongoing drug war, and address corruption at all levels of government. For many mexicans, amlo has represented a paradigm shift from the governance of the past few decades and sees himself as a remedy to ineffective government responses to corruption and violence. Yesterday marked the First Anniversary of his inauguration and during his first year in office, amlo has enjoyed a record high approval rating. However, in the past year hes also faced challenges on many fronts including mexicos security, economy, and migration. Today, we will discuss his Campaign Promises, how they have fared in this first year, and what to expect going forward. Today, im joined by four experts, carlos is associate professor and Coordinator Program at the center for Economic Research research and teaching in mexico city. His areas of academic expertise are history and contemporary politics in mexico and the United States. The bilateral relationship between both countries and media and journalism. Hes also contributor to various printed Media Outlets and commentator on radio and television. Rebecca belchavez is a senior fellow in the peter d. Bell program at the interamerican dialogue. She served as Deputy Assistant secretary of defense for western Hemisphere Affairs from 2013 to 2017. Before joining osc policy, she was professor of Political Science with tenure at the United StatesNaval Academy in annapolis, maryland. He research has focused on western hemisphere security and on comparative politics with an emphasis on the rule of law, democratization, human rights and latin american politics. Tony garasasu is the regional director for latin america and the caribbean at the International Republican institute. Before being named as regional director, tony served as the director of the center for Global Impact at iri and oversaw the institutes programming in central america, haiti, and mexico. Before joining iri, he served as director of business and Government Relations at globia infrastructures and Deputy Director of International Affairs at the Florida Office of tourism, trade and economic development. And joining us today by video is gladys mccormick, jay and debby moskowitz endowed chair at the school of citizenship and Public Affairs of syracuse university, where she focuses on contemporary, political and history of latin america and more specifically, mexico, corruption, Drug Trafficking and political violence. Shes also senior associate here with the csis americas program. So thank you to all of you for being with us today. So to begin the conversation, carlos, what was the reason for amlos landslide victory last year and what drew voters to him . Well, thank you so much for having me. Press the button. Well, i think that in order to understand the landslide victory of Lopez Obrador, the first thing we need to understand is understand the fiasco of pena nietos administration. There were three issues that became very salient and a source of a lot of popular discontent during pena nietos administration. Number one, it was corruption and impunity. Of course, this is not new certainly in mexican history, but during the pena nieto administration, the level of corruption, manyin particular, the level of public scrutiny involving corruption and journalistic standscandals regarding corruption reached an unprecedented level. Even we touched upon the president , himself, there was a scandal called pena nietos white house. Basically a governor contractor, when pena nieto was governor of the state of mexico, built a house for pena nietos wife, for mexicos first lady, of which there was no evidence of payment. And this was bound to become in many ways sort of a mexican watergate. The scandal was so big and so infuriating, but, you know, with a small difference. With watergate watergate ended up leading to the president s resignation, and in the case of mexico, it led to the firing of the journalists who had done the research. So that was like an impressive moment in history and this happened in november of 2014. And from then on, you know, corruption, scandals, kept on piling up, and there was this sense, you know, that the country was up in flames because of the violence, that would be like a second issue. Between 2011 and 2014, there was actually an important disescent in the homicide levels but 2014, 2015 on, it resumed and reached historical levels that mexico didnt have even in the worst years of felipe calderon. So while that was happening, the sense that, you know, the Political Class or the governing class was just, you know, like devoted, you know, to corruption, really, you know, ended up becoming a very explosive political mix and the third ingredient of it, of course, was a growing, keen sense of justice, inof equality. Very mediocre Economic Growth rates. Poverty has gone down, but, you know, very gradually, very slowly. And also with inequality. So there was this sense, i mean, this was global, of course, not in mexico, but during the last decade theres been a keen awareness of injustice in terms of poverty and inequality that mexico was no exception to, so these three issues really became a very explosive political mix. On the other hand, there were three conditions of possibility for amlos landslide. The first of which was when pena nieto came to power, there was this thing, an agreement between party elites to push forward an agenda of modernizing reforms which were, you know, in the agenda of pena nieto but opposition parties didnt necessarily agree with but they went on with it, anyway. And this created, you know, sort of the impression that, you know, Political Parties were, you know, interchangeable. Particularly, the leaders of the parties, their legitimacy was supposed to be in their capacity to represent the difference between their platforms, their electorate, their party members, and these differences were nowhere to be found at the beginning of pena nietos term, so there was really the sense that the, you know, the mexicos transition to Democracy Party system was, you know, voiding itself of any significant meaning. The second thing was, you know, as a consequence of this, and as a consequence of the fact that the three main parties started voting together in a lot of these reforms, the opposition parties lost credibility as opposition. The ban on the prd, were supposed to be opposition parties but were voting for the government and Lopez Obrador had left the prd in 2012 and had, you know, a new project on a new party which came into existence, i dont remember if it was 2014 or 2015, but he was pretty much out of the everyday political game. Creating his own party. So he was in a way, you know, outside of this crisis, party system crisis dynamic, and the third thing, the third condition of possibility was the fact all of these reforms that were done, of course, there was a certain inflation of expectations, you know, because of the selling of the reforms and public opinion, but these, you know, together with, you know, one of the key elements of the mexican transition to democracy was a gradualist reformism. Reforms every now and thing, things will get better, well get better. I think with this last generation of reforms under pena nieto, people got fed up because the cost of the reforms was very efvident evident, but the actual benefits were uncertain or ambiguous. So all of these conditions, together with the issues i just mentioned, violence, corruption, impunity, injustice, turned Lopez Obrador into the only credible opposition candidate and the election was clearly an election about change. And there was nobody who could actually, like, credibly embody or, you know, give voice to the hopes of change but Lopez Obrador. Lopez obrador has been around. This is his third time as president ial candidate. He didnt win the first two times. He didnt recognize his defeat, but he certainly his defeats but he certainly learned from them. And this time around, he was a much more practical, a much more conciliatory, figure, and he ended up becoming, like, this great magnet for political discontent, you know, that ended up createing an historical result. Hes the first president in the history of mexican democracy who got an absolute majority of the popular vote and whose party got majorities in both houses. And carlos, you mentioned change. So how did amlo promise change during the campaign in the beginning of his tenure . Well, the thing, Lopez Obrador has been promising change for 20 years. He became a member of the prd, like the centerleft party during the transition process. He was the leader of that party. He then became major of mexico city between 2000 and 2005 and president ial candidate in 2006, 2012, and 2018. Lopez obrado are r, r, theres a saying in the u. S. Which applies to Lopez Obrador, a clock that stopped working is still right twice a day. In many ways this happened to obrador. The criticism and rhetoric lopez orbardor, about number one, corruption, about what he calls the mafia in power and about, like, the senseless violence and the war, it started making a lot of sense. In electoral terms, Lopez Obrador had loyal voters since 2006 and this time he had 30 million votes, so during the pena nieto years, he was able to persuade another 15 million voters. I think that on the one hand, it might be because he is a figure that is very antagonistic. Very critical. You know, he knows how to speak the language of of disappointment in many ways. And what he promised basically was to eradicate corruption. I mean, we can go into, like, his hes redefined what corruption means in mexico in many ways. His vision of corruption is much moral or personal than policy oriented or very institutional. But he i mean, and he has the merit of being a political figure in the midst of a Political Class that has been all been discredited because of corruption scandals. Hes a political figure that nobody has been able to accuse of personally enriching himself like from corruption schemes. So that was a goal in this election. All parties, all groups, all politicians, have one way or another in a scandal that haunted them. Lopez obrador didnt. In terms of corruption, he became a very important figure. Also in terms of economic injustice, you know, his motto was, you know, for the good of everybody, let the poor come first. Of course, in a country like mexico where this keen awareness of poverty and inequality, you know, grew exponentially during the last years, of course, this message resonated a lot with the mexican public. And finally, he was an early critic of, you know, the Security Strategy or the war against drug cartels from the very beginning. And, you know, weve had enough evidence during these years that actually the way in which the Calderon Administration waged war against organized crime, against drug cartels, actually produced more violence than it actually solved. Of course, Lopez Obrador has taken this knowledge or this information to the extreme of assuming that then, you know, the solution might be not to aexert exert force which is kind of, you know, a bit too much, but in a way, his criticisms, his diagnosis of what was wrong with the country, started making a lot of sense during the last six years and that was the basis of his promise of change. So as i mentioned up top and carlos started getting into, one of the major areas where amlo made significant Campaign Promises and faced significant challenges is mexican economic policy, so, tony, how did amlo promise to specifically promise to improve the economy while on the campaign and what has he delivered on and what is still outstanding . Great. Thank you. And its great to be here. So in general, you know, amlos Campaign Promises have been have been fulfilled. In terms of the principal Campaign Promises, increase gkpdp, increase minimum salsally, it went to 16, formal employment increased. No increase on taxes. Taxes on savings and apps, phone apps have increased. He has respected the autonomy of the bank, stabilized the Exchange Rate and low historic inflation, about 3 . Hes guaranteed youth employment. Though the plan in motion has been met with skepticism by some. He has really tried to, you know, redo energy policy. Refineries, tobasco, with quite a bit of investment. You know, hes tried to increase investment in infrastructure projects. However, the National Autonomous the National Airport in mexico city which was the new Mexico Airport was canceled and lost about 13 billion so theres been some, you know, quite a bit of contradictions in that. Wuj one of the things despite the Campaign Promises that have been fulfilled, the weight theyve been fulfilled, a little more worrisome at least in my mind. Some decisions have been made more out of political necessity than economic prowess. And really centered around one thing, and thats amlo, so kind of the continuing of the weakness of the institutions. For example, in his most recent state of the union address, he really said that Income Distribution will remain a priority over Economic Growth, kind of arguing that redistributing wealth is better. Government policy is able to help with economic development, help the poor. But, again, theres no structural adjustments that have been able to do that. Hes delivered very easy, quick, wins. For example, stripping president s of pensions, not using the president ial jet, although its my understanding its still not been sold so its in the hangar and still playing quite a bit monthly on the lease. And really, the mexican white house, the blair house, executive office building, all in one, to the public. This has really impacted public perception. Thats why he has over 60 approval rating. And a poll done a couple of months ago indicated, you know, that 51 over 51 of citizens really view the actual situation both personal and family as much better than it did before amlo took office. I think it was about an increase of about 9 . Again, its this perception that people are really kind of focusing in on. And one of his Campaign Promises that was a little more specific was a 4 gdp growth each year. What would that have looked like for the average mexican, and what did the growth that actually happened this year mean for mexicans . I mean, Employment Generation generation, you know, has been weak, about 35,000plus jobs every month, which is actually less than pena nietos first year in office, you know, which kind of think back, is kind of worryisome a little bit on the economy, but the reason youve had these Employment Generation, you know, you have had some stabilization in the in inflation, in Exchange Rate. You know, together with an increase in salaries, can generate a perception of wellbeing. You know, Global Commerce has had a bit of a slow rhythm. And deceleration of the economy. They did mexico did pass legislation for the u. S. Mexico Canada Free trade agreement. Were still waiting for the canadians and the u. S. And hopefully, you know, that will help kind of getting things started. Although, Price Waterhouse and coopers did a survey a few months ago, 42 thought the economy was on the right track. Yet this represents a decrease in confidence. Same time last year in a 2018 survey, 57 were optimistic. Theres a lot of overregulation in business, and theres a lot of uncertainty, which means evident when asked where mexicans concentrate their investments, its mostly in the u. S. And some china as well. Right. And speaking of investments, weve heard a lot of members of the private sector in mexico express concern over his proposed economic policies or his style. What are those concerns, and are they founded . Thats for you, tony, also. Okay. Carlos, if youd like to answer as well. Yeah. Well, i mean, like i said, its the lack of confidence, the weakening of the institutions, that really have been kind of hurting because everything is being concentrated around political or politics. So thats a very, very grave concern. One issue that, you know, for example, the 2020 budget is also of concern, so it was passed, what, november 22nd, 23rd, the2020 budget. One of the things that was even though its 0. 8 increase over last year, one of the concerns is the autonomous entities suffered the most cuts, in familiarparticular the National Institute for telecommunications and i think most controversial, a list for folks in our line of work, is the cut, i think the largest in its history since 2014, of the National Electoral institute. Given, because of the political implications. You know, in it, you know, weve worked a lot, at least as iri, weve worked quite a bit on electoral observations around the world and actually used kind of a sharing of best practices, Lessons Learned around the world, the latest one was el salvador, actually, when we brought in folkss to learn the best practices of how they did an election day. Highly regarded institution characterized by its values, independence, autonomy. This is quite worrisome. Particularly given the 2020 midterm federal elections that will renew completely the congress which as carlos mentioned, you know, morena has, you know, the majority in both houses. So this is something thats actually very worrisome. Actually the president of ina is in town this week making the rounds talking about his concerns. Carlos, did you have anything . Ill wait. Great. So another excuse smeme. Another question. So, mexico has ratified usmca. Its currently pending ratification here and in canada. So if its ratifyied by all three countries, how would this impact the mexican economy, and if not, how do you think that amlo would respond to a potential renegotiation . Well, i mean, i think a u. S. mexico canada trade agreement will definitely strengthen the mexican economy. Obviously, that overall of north america. It was a need of an update, if you will. I think amlos also tempered by a modernizing mexico that has largely embraced and dependent upon a free market economy, obviously integrated with the u. S. You know, i dont think amlo is internationalist by nature but he recognizes kind of mexicos leading role. 11th largest economy in the world. 15th largest exporter. It leads the world in free trade agreements. And especially reliant on economic links with the United States. Something very important to keep in mind. 8 o of mexicos exports go to the United States. More than 40 of Foreign Investment originates from american companies. So nafta is important. Nafta, the way that its been renegotiated, i think, has and will have the support from the democrats because a lot of the issues that they are concerned about, you can kind of see reflected in this agreement which i think is very positive. So i, you know, i think it will it will definitely, should get passed. If it doesnt, there will be a lot of a big business crisis around north america because it will not only impact mexico but the United States as well. I mean, you know, and also the u. S. Elections will also impact mexico, something to think about as well, but i think the trade agreement should be first and foremost on the top of the political agenda for all those countries involved. So, as weve already sort of touched on, Security Issues were a major topic of the Campaign Last year. So, rebecca, how did aml, o promise promise to improve the security situation in mexico and has he succeeded with any of those promises . Unfortunately this is an area of really bad news. So during the campaign, amlo promised to address the security crisis. Carlos, you mentioned how grave it was. He also promised to do so without relying on the military. This your point about calderon calling the military in 2006 and amlo was critical because of the rise in extrajudicial killings, disappearances, show also pledged to kind of get the military off of the streets and strengthen the police. I will say, though, on his behalf, your point about the diagnosis, i do i do agree with amlos point about the necessities to address the root causes of the violence. You know, he talked about poverty eradication, employment, educational opportunities, prevention programs for atrisk youth. I think these are all wonderful ideas but theyre going to take a long time. Theyre going to require tremendous resources and sustained focus. And in the meantime, we still have this this crisis in mexico. And so the Public Security crisis is graver than ever. The military is still on the streets. And theres been no significant progress when it comes to Police Reform. So as far as the actual security situation today, so homicides are on track to reach a record high for the second year in a row. The events, the massacre of the mormon family in sonora highlighted this over the weekend, the shootings near the border with texas, so there are great celebrations about the oneyear anniversary while there is this massive car incident of cartel violence. And also there were the protests in mexico city over the weekend about the violence. 50 of mexicans, this is according to the Latin American Public opinion poll out of vanderbilt university, 50 of mexicans feel unsafe in their neighborhood. 20 feel that they have to move. 56 , and this is from october, 56 of mexicans report that the amlo Security Strategy is failing. His National Plan for peace and security. And really troubling, 56 of mexicans report that organized crime is actually stronger than the government. So these are not are not great this is not good news. As far as the militarization of Law Enforcement in mexico, once amlo was in office, he was pretty quick to recognize that the federal he said this is a bitter reality, the federal police is not prepared. So he did not did not call the troops off the streets and what he did is he created this National Guard which im sure most folks here are tracking which in theory was going to kind of diminish reliance on the military and the idea was that in five years, once the National Guard is fully operational, then he can call the military off of the streets, but the fact is that the National Guard, itself, is a militarized institution. Its comprised of members of sevena. There are members of the federal police but both sedena and semar, the mexican army and mexican navy are part of this institution so its hybrid. There was a lot of debate about this new National Guard, human Rights Groups were really concerned. So when the constitutional amendment was passed, they did rather than have the ministry of defense in charge of it, the actual a civilian is in charge. Its the secretary of security and civilian protection. However, if you look at the makeup of the National Guard, most top commanders are, indeed, members of the military. And also, something to note about the National Guard, i mean, it was created to address the Public Security crisis, but President Trump placed a lot of pressure on the Mexican Government government, on amlo, to address the migration crisis from the northern triangle and he threatened to place significant tariffs on mexican goods and in exchange, amlo in exchange, in order to not place the tariffs on the mexican goods, amlo promised to send 6,000 National Guard members to patrol mexicos southern border, in particular, the border with guatemala to stop Central American migrants. So, again, the plan was to send the National Guard to the most violent parts of country and instead we see 6,000 troops diverted to the southern border. And then finally, what ill say is on the Police Reform is the campaign talked a lot about strengthening civilian Law Enforcement, but the plan, if you look at the actual plan, the National Security plan for peace and security, Police Reform does not does not figure heavily in the plan and there was really no detailed offramp to get the military off the streets. And how does his Security Policy compare to that of his predecessor, specifically, calderon and pena nieto . So what were really seeing is its not much of a change. In fact, the National Guard has a lot in common with pena nieto, in 2014, pena nieto proposed or actually started this jan darmarie, many ways looks like the National Guard but that fizzled off pretty quickly. Again, the reliance on the military continues to be a central part of the strategy and its its kind of facing some of the same problems that it did under both pena nieto and calderon. And you mentioned that the National Guard had significant criticism from human Rights Groups when it was when it was created. Could you elaborate on why that was and sort of the backstory and the history . Sure. So in large part because it is a very militarized force, the human Rights Groups in mexico have for a long time expressed great concern about the role of the military in Law Enforcement, in particular, the rise in human rights abuses by members of the military. So it comes from that history of human rights abuses and, again, the failure to build up the federal civilian police. And as rebecca mentioned, mexico is on its way to have one of its most violent years in certainly the last decade. So, gladys, can you explain to us a little bit about why that is, whats behind that uptick . Sure. Thanks for having me. I think, you know, theres a series of reasons why 2019 is on track to break all records. Since the Mexican Governments been keeping records, right . And its in part because of the crisis that amlo inherited back on december 1st of 2018. Its also, i mean, you know, he inherited something that was years of mismanagement and the growth of the drug war and so on. Theres certainly some of that. I think what we also can agree on is he hasnt helped himself. This sort of piggybacks off of what rebecca was saying that over the course of this year, the Security Policies that have been coming out from a security cabinet have really been anemic, to say the least. And theres been a lot of posturing, a lot of whats known as the soft policies which are sort of Poverty Alleviation that wont necessarily net results for a while. I think the absence of a National Guard is more of a shortterm fix. Basically meant that the crisis has just continually worsened over the past is months. A few points i wanted to make. Again, i appreciate sort of being able to build off of what rebecca put on the table is that seeing this from the perspective of Drug Trafficking organizations and organized criminal networks throughout mexico, i think the situation on october 17th was very revealingto all of them because basically, this was the day, in a city of a million people, capital city of the state of sinoloa. This is a place where the National Guard should have been present and werent necessarily there in the numbers they ought to have for what was semplessentially the capturing of two, at least one, of el chapos sons, on the books as being part of the membership or leadership of the sinoloa cartel. As many folks in the audience, im sure you know, they did capture the youngest of the sons and then within hours you had 375 Armored Vehicles just descend from the mountains, and just a firefight that was sort of similar to what you would see on the movies unleashed hell. And, you know, within hours, they had to release the son just to, quote unquote, prevent further deaths. So it was clear that the government was outnumbered. Outpowered. And if you show up with enough ammunition, enough firepower, you can actually bend the government to your will. So i think that was something that was very much of a clear message to organized criminal networks. The other thing that weve seen over the last 12 months and amlo has done nothing to sort of address it from the security standpoint, is, you know, just the expansion of organized criminal networks. So since 2006, nowadays, were talking we started with six large cartels. Today we have about nine. Upwards of 236 smaller organized criminal networks and that was a number that was just released just a couple weeks ago. So you really see kind of the ocean expansion of organized crime in parts of mexico, and what you see with some of the ones at the top, top players and some of the medium players is they have diversified their portfolios. These are transnational criminal organizations. Right . So they are delving more into sinynthetics such as fentanyl, sort of a range of other activities including human trafficking, sex trafficking, and so on as a way to sort of move beyond just drugs. The other thing that i think is sort of a harbinger, kind of a storm in the horizon, is that, you know, just recently, athals dis they discovered theres been fields of coca plantations in mexico. From just trafficking who are now producing cocaine in southern mexico is actually quite scary. The other point i wanted to make quickly is more about kind of the sort of medium smaller organized criminal networks that ought to be the focus of amlos Security Policies. The rates of extortion in mexico, what they call, you know, are just going through the roof in the last 12 months. They have come under the gun there these smaller organized criminal networks, some of which actually have connections to the larger ones just demanding extortion fees and thats really just wreaked havoc in the lives of many more mexicans than those who were just involved in the drug trade. So, and we dont see anything coming out of amlos administration to sort of address kind of the sort of the effects of extortion on some of these sort of populations which just recently had actually been doing quite well. And its actually then sort of, you know, triggered kind of a wave of sort of growing insecurity and violence in other places that had just recently, again, been safe. And im thinking here, for example, one for many of us here in the u. S. Is sort of the haven for expats, right . The other thing were sort of seeing is these sorts of more homegrown sort of domestic forms of organized criminal networks, its easier because they dont have to expend that much capital, much money. They can reach relatively quick sort of rewards and kind of keeps them local. I think some of the effects of organized crime are going to get worse in 2020 and i think whats sort of distressing to any as well as i imagine others on the panel is were not really seeing amlo kind of step up in terms of sort of shaking up his security cabinet to address some of these concerns. Rather, what hes continuing to do is to blame previous president s, blame others, so, for example, in one case, he was actually demanding just a couple weeks ago, demanding that members of the press actually apologize to his security cabinet because he felt they had done a stellar job with the catch and release of ohilio guzman. Hes very much sticking to his line and i think that line of hubris is just to me rather worrisome. Of course, yeah, please. I just wanted to take on something you said, gladys, because i think this has been part of the discussion for while quite a while. You know, theres been a lot of criticisms about Security Policy for at least a decade. Yes. Yes. And there was always this question about what a leftist Security Policy would look like because most of the criticisms came from the left of the political spectrum. And i think amlo came up with this idea of, you know, attacking the social roots of the problem. You know, with a battery of social policy programs, with an increased budget for social policy, but i think its become quite evident at this point that social policy is not and cannot be a substitute for Security Policy. It might be a complement in the long run. A big if there in between is if the policyies are well designed and well implemented which is in the case of this administration is a big if because, you know, we know there hasnt been a lot of evidence informing the design of this social policy programs and not even, like, regular rules of operation, you know, for this money to be spent the way its supposed to spend. Like, rules of, you know, the quality of spending have not been put in place. So theres this sense on the one hand that, you know, maybe morally speaking or from the perspective of the left, its great that the president is concerned, you know, to attack the social roots of the problem, but, you know, the fact that youre spending, you know, money on, you know, youngsters in order for them not to become drug dealers, you know, if the money is well spent, you will see the results in five, ten, years, but in the meantime, that does nothing to address, you know, the massacres or the violence going on as we speak in the country. I think, you know, what youre saying about Lopez Obrador, you know, besides what you were talking about is the lack of an actual policy to address the current violence that is taking place. I agree. I agree. I think, you know, its interesting for those of you in the audience who dont know, this policy has been nicknamed hugs, not bullets. I think it was very catchy especially at the beginning but i think going in 12 months, especially whats been going on in the last two months with all the massacres including the one just yesterday with 22 people dead, sort of suggests that this is very much of an immediate thing, and, you know, for the policy to have worked, it needed actually to have been in place about ten years ago, so the fact that its not actually being kind of combined, but even for some of those, like, for example, just a few months ago, amlo has been there sort of promising building soccer fields and all sorts of Poverty Alleviation programs but there had been no delivery in terms of actual funds for some of those projects, so what were seeing is theres a great deal of emphasis on the rhetoric, again, to follow up on what youre saying, not the followthrough of what this means on paper. I think thats something that held steady throughout which brings into question the credibility of amlo as being a, quote, leftist, and actually if anything, hes much more of a populist, if you want to think about it as such in part. Its all about kind of keeping the relationships. Thank you. To add to that is the issue of the rule of law and lagging of the new justice reforms and impliation of new justice reforms put into place in 2016. Very, very much uneven across all 32 states and impunity still runs high so citizens are seeing this and theyre saying, well, is security a crime . Is it major issue for the government . Because i still my perpetrators are still not being caught or anything being, you know, kind of helping to put them in jail. So thats just something to keep in mind as well. Definitely. And i think, you know, it will be interesting to hear, perhaps, just later on, theres been some criticism that the Security Policy as such seems that amlo is sort of taking on this sort of managerial style of being a micro manager. He wants to have it in control, centralized under his management. And it doesnt necessarily work in practice. So, of course, you know, at some point maybe later on we can talk about the designation of some of these organized criminal networks as terrorist organizations, but ill sort of set that aside. Thats great, actually. We can certainly speak about that. So, before we get into that, so his Approval Ratings have stayed pretty high throughout this first year, but they dropped about ten points during this surge of violence that gladys, you just discussed. Will do you think this will force him to make changes to his security plan . And if not, is there something that will . I would certainly hope just because, again, the fact that it dipped below 60 was very telling. It hit 58 , but there was another statistic that just came out a couple days ago which said that despite the fact that 58 , you know, in terms of the approval rating, that 72 of people actually think that amlo has done good this past year. And they cite his the way in which hes attacked issues of corruption as being the number one reason why he thinks hes done so well. Right . Showmanship with issues of the plane, cutting the salary in half and so on. I think this might actually have bought him some time. If anything, i would sort of suspect that there might be a slight bounceback to 58 . Well go up into the 60 range as long as theres been no major massacres happening that would deflect attention. I guess well see. I would like to talk more about the u. S. Response to the security situation in mexico. This is both for gladys and rebecca, and tone and carlos, if you would like to jump in. So where can the u. S. Play a positive role in assisting mexico in mitigating violence, but then on the flip side sort of what is the conversation here in the u. S. About designating the cartels as terrorist groups . Okay. Rebecca, you go ahead. Okay. I was going to say as far as positive steps, things that the u. S. Can do, number one thing that we could do is focus on the rule of law, working with mexico to help them strengthen the rule of law, particularly through judicial reform. I think thats something we hear a lot about, and when there was the call between anlo and trump after the events and they talked about finally doing something to slow the flow of illegal weapons or weapons from the United States into mexico, trump said yes, were going to do something about this, i find i dont think thats going to happen, unfortunately. 70 of guns that are seized in mexico can be traced back to the u. S. Mainly from southwest border states, primarily from texas. During that phone call they talked about technology, ways to use Better Technology to detect them. As long as its so easy to get guns and sell them to strong men, its going to remain a problem. Its about the campaign. Were running up on the president ial campaign here. The timing is not a coincidence. I think its a way for trump to rev up his base, villainizing mexico in the past has worked well for him, using racially charged language helped a lot in the last election. In his tweets, he recently tweeted im sure, again, many of you saw this. Its time that the u. S. Helped mexico wage war and wipe them off the face of the earth. Its kind of reminiscent of the call he had with pinieto when he said youve got some bad hombres down there. For one thing, i think this will hurt or bilateral relationship. The other is the problem with the definition. State Department Definition of a foreign terrorist organization, theyre motivated by politics, politically motivated. Organizations hes talking about in mexico are motivated by profit. I think this could also hurt the mexican economy. There are already reports of violence in the u. S. Newspapers. We read about what happened, gladys, the very dramatic events that you described. Its going to deter investment, tourism. There is, perhaps, a Silver Lining on this. Im sure this is not something that President Trump thought through when he mentioned this idea of labeling mexican cartels as terrorist organizations. It could make a better case for Asylum Seekers from mexico. Perhaps thats a Silver Lining. It also, i think, underlines the remain in mexico policy. While Asylum Seekers are waiting for their cases to be heard in the u. S. , they have to safely wait in mexico. Yes. And it also undermines the safe third country agreements because cartels have reached into central america. And finally the nra probably hasnt thought about this, but this could make it easier to charge the middle men, straw purchasers buying guns along the border because they would be aiding and assisting a terrorist organization. Yeah. And i think just to sort of build on what rebecca was saying, there was a report saying that the massacre of the family members, that all the spent cartridges and bullets had been purchased illegally in the u. S. And transferred to mexico. It gives you a sense of how widespread ammunitions are happening down there. In terms of the terrorist designation, it seems right now there only three are on the chopping block, right . So theres a lot of details that have yet to be hammered out. Theres talk of william barr going down later this week to work out what this does. Once that meeting happens, well have a clear sense of what the Trump White House is intending to do with this designation. In mexico, theres a great deal of concern about the fact that this might be an affront to sovereignty, and sort of a precursor for armed intervention. Lopez obrador this morning was saying that the u. S. Military is not welcome in mexico. I think were already getting a sense of how this is being perceived by the administration. Theyre going to be somewhat antagonistic to what william barr is putting on the table, if thats akin to trump tweet with war in all caps, wage war. Its important to think about how this designation of terrorist organization has been used in the past. For example, in the case of ireland, ira, Irish Republic Army was seen as an act of. For that time in that case in that situation. Solidarity. Its actually helped diplomatic ties between countries, but what i think were seeing in the mexican case, it isnt that. It has much more of a bellicose sound to it. Rebecca, is it okay if i talk about the remain in mexico policy . Yeah. Actually, that was my next question, so great. Oh, great. Theres been such dramatic changes to asylum and the process here in the u. S. That i would hope it would help the Asylum Seekers, the ways in which mpp was put into place, commonly referred to as remain in mexico, has sort of undermined what potentially could have been. Asylum law would have worked but the rollout of mpp is precludeing the fact that people can could use some of this designation to help their asylum cases. In part because of the third country rule, right . You now have sort of a backlog in terms of individuals at the border. I think estimates right now are there are 50,000 people who are hunkered down in six cities across the border, just waiting for their asylum cases and in the last month theyve only granted 11 asylum petitions. This gives you a sense of this is completely undone, the asylum process here in the United States, and its setting up mexico for a humanitarian crisis. In terms of what to do again, these migrants who are sort of located on the border are experiencing abuses from both Drug Trafficking organizations, sort of using them for kidnapping, right . Rates of kidnapping in some of these populations are astron omiccal, most of which are happening in these six cities. Theyre also subject to abuse by members of Law Enforcement, security apparatuses, as well as individuals, government officials with the Immigration Services in mexico. So theres no sort of clear end to what this program is going to be. And i think undeniably, as more stacking up of individuals coming up to the border zone, that is going to become a much greater humanitarian crisis. And i think word now is coming from these camps where these individuals are housed that the conditions of these camps are catastrophic. Its much better to be in syria than it is to be in mexico. Reach out to International Community like the International Red cross, the united nations, in part because the United States, the monies that theyre sort of offering are doing nothing as far as addressing the humanitarian crisis. I think thats a critical point in terms of thinking about where next. And then the last opponent i want to sort of issue is that we havent been talking about the initiative. We already have sort of something in the books that if we were to dedicate funding to the initiative much more realistically speaking, we would be able to address issues of impunity and corruption on the ground. So that we have those sorts of protocols already established in terms of bilateral relationships. We just need the funds. Great. And all of you have, including gladys just now, have brought up issues of impunity, corruption and rule of law in mexico. There have been calls for sort of a cciglike structure in mexico. This is for the whole group. Is this feasible . What would it look like . How much of it exists already, for example . Let me jump into that and take a step back. I think its important to realize that something that tony mentioned in passing. But i think, you know, its important for the discussion for the rule of law question, which is, you know, theres this impression, and i think its a right one, that Lopez Obrador somehow has undermined political institutions, on one hand reducing their budget, by also appointing loyals to his cause, to his Party Instead of people with the expertise or with the experience to help them. And with the cuts and all. But i think its important to realize, you know, when we come to this threshold the first year of Lopez Obrador and we ask ourselves, you know, he has obviously been a president who has tried to, you know, build a strong presidency, you know. We have this irony or this dissonance of one year after we have a stronger presidency but a weaker government. One of the reasons of this has to do with institutions. And if you look at what has been the most important or the most efficient check that the Lopez Obrador presidency has faced this year, it is not congress. It is not the Supreme Court. It is not the press. Its not Civil Society. It is not the socalled markets or the private sector. Its our relationship with the United States. Lopez obrador has this thing you know, he talks a lot and somehow he warns you, way in advance, of what hes going to do. Still theres room for surprise because i cant believe he did this, but he told us he was going to do it six months ago. If theres one instance where that has not been the case is the relationship with the u. S. And i think the most important example in this regard is mexicos migration policy at the southern border. He had this proposal of more humanitarian, more just, more open migration policy regarding Central American migrants. When this started creating conflicts in the northern border with United States and with trump openly threatened to impose tariffs gladys was talking about, it makes the inducing significantly more to address this, you know, new migration flows. Radically change his policy, even divulging some of the resources created to fight narcos to hunt down immigrants. So what im wondering about this comment, its not an open threat yet but the comment about labeling mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations, my impression is that, you know, trump is not going to go through with it. I think this is politically motivated. He has done this before. He launches a threat and waits to see how mexico reacts. And mexico the reaction in mexico has been very public opinion, you know. We are a sovereign country, you know, the American Army is not welcome. I wonder to what extent in the private meetings are going to take place next week. To what extent is the u. S. Going to use this as a weapon to have mexico change change its Security Policy, particularly this idea that were not going to wage war against the cartels anymore anymore. After what happened with the family and all these massacres, to actually force it to change its Security Policy. Well, in terms of corruption, you mentioned keeping in mind mexico has the anticorruption system, sna, which helped serve as a multiplier between the government and Civil Society to kind of get at the root causes of corruption. In his first appointment he named one of his close confidants but the sna has not received a strengthened budget. Follow the money model if you will. Theres no criteria for investigation do they go after the opposition, is it a social good . The main issue has been delivered to a main audience. Whatever change there is, its kind of questionable. Sidelining of institution which really weakens the processes and offer s offers as the messiah, if you will, the only one who can solve the problem. Theres no sustainability to that. That. Carlos, can i add to your point about i think its a really interesting hypothesis you put out there. It wouldnt surprise me at all if that is the case. If in these private discussions if theres pressure to implement new strategy, i hope its not a return to the kingpin strategy because the idea to go after the leader of the cartel, thats the solution. Why your description of these number of cartels have grown and very slippery beings. We see that largely when we go after heads of cartels and they become even more violent. I have one more question for all four of you. Lopez obrador has five more years in office. What should he prioritize in those five years to really be successful . Nobody wants to answer. No one wants to answer . Or better sort of go ahead. Yes, yes. Its a regional leader. And i think he should try to use his popularity if you will to strengthen the democratic principles, that would be a step in the right direction to move the country forward. His hold on power will not really last forever. There was a survey last week. I dont know if you saw, which was released and is really in reput and in that order. Moreno would get about 68 . He received 38 or less last go around, further indication, and processes and commitment ss. Commitments. I would hope, what i think the priority should be. Strong checks on their power so unfortunately, i dont see that as likely to be a priority. I wish it would be. In the security space, i think that going back and focusing on form of a civilian Law Enforcement should be the focus. So i think as far as what you would think in the next five years is a presence of national actors, right . One of the things that was so distinctive in the case of guatemala, and the reason they were so successful, in part, is you had the support of the united nations, give oversight, address issues of impunity and displace some of the blame way from domestic actors to an international actor. So i think having more of a presence of outsiders, here it could be united nations. Could come in and sort of help boost. Beginning with issues of law and order. Likewise in terms of the immigration stuff i mentioned the fact that you need some of these International Actors come in and address this growing humanitarian crisis. And i think, you know, what were seeing is just recently theres been an expansion of some of the efforts between the Mexican Government and for example boosting the National Guard from the southern border to the northern border. Theres 13,000 on the northern border. Those individuals should not be there. And that goes back to issues of extortion as well as what weve seen at the major theaters. To sort of ensure greater attention. That would certainly be one. Last point that i would make is that he needs to shake up his security cabinet. Some of those individuals are clearly not they dont render the expertise required to the magnitude of this process. I think he would reconsider his choices to lead agencies on the front lines. I agree with what fellow members have pointed out. Im going to add a new one to the list which is redistribution redistribution. I think im looking to power with the idea because he sold himself as a man of the left, to redistribute wealth. The thing is he damaged himself very significantly during the transition period before he took power, sorry, by canceling and it was around 13. 5 billion. And not only is that money going down the drain, its also the signal that it sent to investors and up till now the problem with mexico, you know, is bordering on a recession. There is very little certainty, very little trust in the private sector for investing. And if amlo wants to address his redistribution agenda, there cant be there can be with you its a lot harder to distribute if theres no wealth. Politically speaking its just a recipe for conflict, you know. A stronger, larger growth might be, you know, a bit easier to redistribute wealth. If theres no growth, redistribution policies face a lot of resistance and challenges. So for me, a priority that might be in the cards for him is to really try to reconstruct trust and certainty for private investment and for the economy to start growing again for him to really be able to make some sort of difference in terms of the redistribution of wealth by the end of his term. Wonderful. I would like to open it up for questions from the audience. Couple of ground rules. Wait for the microphone. Speak into the microphone. If you could identify yourself before you ask your question and finally a question ends with a question mark. Right over here. My name is jonathan. If you could wait for the microphone. Sorry. My name is jonathan. Im really grateful for the panel, for speaking. Im a private tutor. My question is on the independence of the judiciary in mexico. Now, does the judiciary, the Supreme Court justice, does he have independence or is he coopted by the executive amlo . Is it written in the constitution . Is there constitutional enforcement . Anyone want to go ahead . Well, i think, unfortunately, the judiciary is in the process of becoming captured. The way in which Supreme Court justices are appointed, you know, rendered itself for Party Negotiations and for quotas to be set but now that morena has a majority and there are other parties that are part of Lopez Obradors coalition. The appointments so far have been, you know, of people who are more or less close or loyal to morena. But the worrisome aspect is that the Supreme Court has a president and the new president has been very vocal and very open, you know, to say that he supports Lopez Obrador, that he shares with him ideas, that theyre friends. Something that is very, you know that sounds very out of place from a justice president. So i think that, you know, it might still be too soon to say that its not independent, but i think its, you know, pretty standard to recognize that judicial power is in the process of being captured by the president s coalition. Im Barbara Bowie whitman, retired foreign officer and served in mexico city 30 years ago. The question i would like to ask has to do with this business of shutting down the construction on the airport. What was the major objective . Was it because it was into cost overruns . I mean, what positive results did he anticipate from it . Well, ill take my answer to that. I think it was meant to be a political signal that, you know, theres a new sheriff in town and that he was serious about it. He was not going to play politics with, you know, business interests the way it used to be played before. Did it work . I mean, i think it was a very improvised, very impetuous decision. It should be said he wanted the airport to be canceled but he called this sort of referendum on very shaky grounds legally speaking. And all polls, most polls show that the population was against the airport but in the end the referendum gave opposite results that most people who participated were in for shutting down the airport. Studies have been conducted as to the voting booths were installed in places of morenas strongholds. The results had no legal value but Lopez Obrador used it to announce he was going to cancel it. In terms of finances, it was a disaster. It cost so much money. Politically speaking, yes, i think it sent a signal that Lopez Obrador was for real. Somehow, you know, in terms of game theory, this was like Lopez Obrador tying himself, you know, to a post and saying im real. This is real. I dont care to lose all this money, but im a new sheriff in town and i he accused, you know, the project of being, you know, plagued by corruption. But one year after, theres no Legal Process and nobody has been put in jail, you know, for that corruption. This brings us to something that we barely touched upon, which is the fact that Lopez Obrador has more than an anticorruption policy. He plays anticorruption politics, and he uses corruption or accusations of corruption as a weapon against his enemies or against any sort of check and balance that he might have to reckon with. So, you know, to go back to your question, i think it was a gesture, you know. Meaning to symbolize or to represent change in a way that has been, you know, a signature of his government. His government has been very worried, to send a lot of signals and to talk a lot about change, to sort of symbolize change more than actually carrying it out. Can i add something . Please, yeah. Go ahead. So i think in addition to sort of sending a signal to the population at large and especially his supporters, it was also meant as a clear signal to the political establishment, right . This was supposed to be sort of the pearl in the crown or the jewel in the crown for him to get pinieto. He had invested so much. This was pinietos legacy that amlo was supposed to continue. That was a very clear signal to that establishment that were not going to put up with this and distance himself from politics as usual and sort of set himself apart entirely. It was despite the fact that it came at a tremendous cost to everybody and we have, as of yet, to sort of see any of the accusations of corruption come to life, i think the capital that he was able to sort of get from having announced the elimination was huge. Okay. Im a venezuelan. I need to ask something about reelection, no . Is there any probability that amlo will try to soften the pram work to be reelected . Usually the politicians spend a lot of time thinking on these and usually very late on political opinion and analysis. I dont know if you can give an opinion about the possibility of relation. I mean, if he will use the Midterm Election or any other time to push for that. No, no, please. Go ahead. Well, as in the past year, we have seen some of the erosion of some of the institutions and really kind of like the capturing of the state in a lot of these areas. Youve got, you know, bids being done for contracts that are some pet projects for amlo. You have this concentration in this one person. Youve got the Midterm Elections, majority of morena. I dont see in the short term, you know, of being able to erode all that power but it certainly is very concerning, the way that some of the institutions have been are being weakened. But in terms of the next reelection the next six years, i dont think so, unless he has that referendum that he puts forth. That could happen as it did in bolivia. We all know how that turned out. I dont see that happening so closely in the next four or five years. So i agree, but i do see sort of to me, in many ways, it looks like amlo has taken the page out of a playbook as someone not as extreme as chavez, but weve seen this in other latin american countries, bolivia, from both the left and right, honduras where you see this kind of slow you go after the judiciary. The press. We havent talked about his attacks on the press. I see these troubling signs. I think something so fundamental to mexico, but then again i would not have predicted this degree of just in the year for the power to become so concentrated in the executive branch. I would add to that, too. Depending on what happens with the Midterm Elections, well have a much clearer signal of whats going on and well start to see a dramatic uptick in the use of referendums. I expected more. Ive been surprised with the lack of it i would sort of imagine if we start to see that go up, thats going to be a clear indicator. The other thing thats different from mexico to some of the other countries that experience this had process, right, is that they dont have the neighbor to the north. I think the u. S. Government is less likely to sort of put up with sort certain changes to the constitution to allow for reelection, especially if theres concern. Theres more likelihood that the u. S. Would step in or express concerns. Well see what happens. Sure. Right here in the middle and then next will be our next two questions. Hi. My name is brian. Im an undergraduate journalism student at arizona state. Im doing my senior undergraduate project on the effect of amlo on the press of mexico and kind of comparing it to trump. Im wondering, what has been the effect of amlo on the press of mexico and whats the impact of that been on the country itself . How has the press dealt with this and how has the population interpreted his Daily Press Conferences that he carried over from his terms as mayor . Ill take this one. You know, as a populist, i think theres a distinction to be made. Sometimes, you know, the way in which this sort of strong leaders, you know, react to press coverage, to the media lead us to believe that they hate the media. I dont think thats the case. Populist leaders these days need the media and love the media. What they hate is journalism. I mean, its the case with trump clearly. And a number of european leaders. These days, populist leaderships are, you know, mediatic or nonexistent. They use the media as platforms for their message, sort of their celebrity, but they dont like journalism, because it puts them on the spot and they dont like the scrutiny and they dont like to have to deal with evidence. I think it was not trump but Kellyanne Conway who coined the expression alternative facts, right . Lopez object ra dor has an equivalent when confronted with official data produced by his own Government RegardingEmployment Creation or homicides or, you know, lack of Economic Growth. He says i have other data. So, yes, since before amlo, mexico was one of the most dangerous countries for journalists. And since amlo came to power, the last i checked, it was 13 journalists who had been killed, which is, you know, kind of a deceptive number. We focus on the ones that have been killed but others have been threatened or attacked. And this has been a problem mexico has had way before amlo. This should be said. Amlo, i dont think, has done nearly enough to address the problem. Actually, what he has done, i mean, he has weaponized the lack of credibility of a lot of the press, you know. For a long time in mexico, one of the main sources of revenue for the press was in spanish called official publicity. The government buying ads on tv or newspapers and radio. And that created, of course, a very problematic relationship, you know. There was no chinese wall, you know, between the commercial and the Editorial Department in most of these Media Outlets. So, you know, there was always this accusation to be made against the media of having been bought by the money of official publicity. One of the things that amlo has done since he came to office, he reduced the budget for official publicity by more than half. Which i think was good because it was unjustifiable to spend so much money on official publicity. And it lent itself to this problematic relationship. Whats happening now is that amlo and some of his supporters are using the very terms mexicans used before to attack or to criticize the bought press, theyre using it against the critical and independent press that criticizes amlo. What he does this is a novelty. He does it openly. The scandal i mentioned about the corruption and pinietos white house where they ended up firing the journalists when they did the investigation. That was all done, say, under the table, you know. But with Lopez Obrador, what happens, he uses this platform, his morning press conferences to speak up his mind. And he says, you know, i am a citizen. I am just using my right to freely express myself which, of course, is absurd because hes the president. This is not a normal citizen expressing his opinion. This is the president using a platform and his followers listen. A lot of journalists that criticize, the Media Outlets that criticize amlo or make him uncomfortable with questions during this press conference, the rest of the day in social media are the objects of very systematic attacks. So the thing is, the situation of the press was not good before amlo. Now what were facing is sort of a different like an additional level of a menace which is not only the continuing of aggressions against journalists but now the very president himself creating this sort of validation of the hostility environment against the press. That, you know, reporters and journalists have had to face since many years ago. Right here. Thank you. I have a question that anyone on the panel could ask could answer about the status of education reform in mexico. Anyone . Anything more specific that youre curious about . Backtracking on things that his predecessor has done and im wondering if theres any more news on that front and what may be going talking about injustice and economic inequality. Empowering people with real education is an important part of development of mexico. In fact, pinietos education reform, which was one of the signatures of his term, has been eradicated. There has been a reform. The most important aspect of it was one of the things one of the good things that the pinieto reform did was take away the control of, you know, the teacherscareers from the unions and put in control of the state. And there were tests. There were whole procedures, like official procedures for professors to have a professional horizon, so to speak. And that has been taken away. And the control of the teacherscareer has been turned back to the unions. Thats one of the legacies of the first year of Lopez Obrador. Well, thats all the time we have for today. Thank you all for coming out and please join me in thanking our panelists for being with us today.