Transcripts For CSPAN3 Trump Administration Diplomat Others Discuss Iraqs Political Outlook 20240713

Good morning and thank you all for joining us. Also our livestream audience. Im Atlantic Council president and ceo fred kempe. Thanks for joining us both here in the room and virtually for our conversation. If you want to use social media, use aciraq, aciraq. You know its an important event when the ambassador is here, when key members of our board are here and its always such a pleasure to have our International Advisory board member mijid jafar here. Thank you, Crescent Petroleum for this, for iraqi Global Energy center. Miji dichlt has been a person ive been stealing ideas from for a long time. He happens to be one of the best thinkers and actors both in the Business World and analyst of the region. And its always a pleasure to have him here as well. Todays event was organized by Iraq Initiative and global initiative. Our Iraq Initiative is led by abbas kadhim, who will be our moderator. Its been a game changer having abbas working with us. Hes one of those rare individuals who understands the workings of the country hes covering, iraq, to intimately, but also the workings of washington, which in many respects is sometimes more difficult to follow. This mornings discussion is very timely. Iraq is facing its most daunting crisis since isis with protests under way and citizens demanding reform as well as the news just yet that Prime Minister will resign. Despite the current unrest and unserpt about the future, iraq has made significant progress in recent years by carrying out elections and a peaceful transfer of power in the region where this is not the norm. We have to keep reminding ourselves of how unique that is. The United States and iraq have a long and complex history. We all know that. Iraqs relations with iran have strained aspects of u. S. iraq relations, yet its more important than ever for the United States and iraq to Work Together as partners. As we saw during the u. S. Mission last weekend that resulted in theof isis leader abu bakr al baghdadi. U. S. iraqi cooperation was one key ingredient for the success of that operation. We dont spend a lot of time on individual bilateral relations at the Atlantic Council across our 13 programs and senders that act on issues in all regions of the world. What we do is we focus on the bilateral relations we think have outsized importance. There is no doubt thats the case in iraq and, therefore, our Iraq Initiative. Today our expert panel will help us understand these dynamics and more. Before i turn the floor over to abbas to moderate the discussion with our panelists, id like to briefly introduce them. Rend al rahim is a former ambassador to the United States as well as a member of our Iraq Initiative Advisory Committee. Shes also the cofounder and president of the iraq institute. Joey hood, were always happy when someone can break loose of their government offices to come here. We know how demanding your jobs are. Hes the Principal Deputy assistant secretary of state in the state Departments Bureau of near eastern affairs. He spent much of his career working in the middle east and particularly on the arabian peninsula. He has served as deputy chief of mission in iraq and in kuwait as well as consulgeneral and principal officer in daran, saudi arabia. Mijid jafar is vice chair of the Crescent Group of companies. In addition, he serves on the board of trustees of the queen foundation, kalamat foundation, arab forum for environment and development and the iraq energy institute. He also sits on the board of fellows of Harvard Medical School and the International Advisory board of the Princess Trust international and, of course, the Atlantic Councils International Advisory board. The just to show the reach of the work that we do together with mijid and crescent, today in singapore we held the third workshop for a project called the role of oil and Gas Companies in the Energy Transition. It was held during the Singapore International energy week 2019 as part of their think tank roundtables sessions. The workshop gathered a number of individuals from a variety of Southeast Asian Research Institutions and local representatives of International Oil and Gas Companies and yielded key insights. I wont go into them here but they are issues mijid has pushed us to look more closely at, which is how oil and Gas Companies actually can take a leading role in a very positive role in an Energy Transition driven by broadening and enriching the energy mix through the companies that produce and market them to face challenges such as Climate Change and other issues, really thinking into the future. So, with that, ill turn the floor over to abbas and our panelists. But before i do that, let me salute will wexler, who has masterfully led our middle east programs, and his Principal Deputy and stephanie, who has been instrumental in working with abbas on this set of work around iraq. So, over to you, abbas. Thank you for being here. Im abbas kadhim. Thank you, fred, for the introductory remarks. Were honored to have an allstar panel today. You know, it is it takes that kind of an allstar panel to talk about iraq and the complexities of this country. So, without any introductions, we will have a discussion a little bit from the stage and then open the floor for the audience for questions. Im sure everyone has many questio questions. And the panel will indulge these questions and will answer and we will do our best to decipher or demystify what goes on in iraq. We really have to recognize everybody in the room. All of you are friends, and people who help us a lot with your presence, with your ideas, but i would be remiss if i do not recognize my good friend and the Advisory Committee member for the Iraq Initiative, ambassador who flew from indiana to join us for this event. Thank you, sir. And, again, the ambassadors and friends, all of you are welcome here and thank you for being here. Let me go with the rule of ladies first and talk to ambassador rend al rahim. Ambassador, youve seen these events unfold and you are one of the people who have been in this town and elsewhere, very informative and contributive to the debate. How do you see the protests, context regional and international, and where do you think they are going in terms of their influence on the political scene in iraq, the governments future, possible changes or are we going to have another wave of protests that will go home and then we will relive this once again . Hopefully not. But im interested to know where you see the future. Lots of questions. First, lets establish we are at a crucial and possible turning point in iraqs political development. There is no question, i think, from october 1st the protests have created a new narrative and new scenario and projected a new vision for iraq that we havent had. I wont say since 2003, we havent had for decades. The protests started, of course, as a demand of services, of jobs and so on. But what was interesting is that as they progressed and as violence began to be practiced against the protesters, the demands changed and then they became a demand for Holding People to account for corruption, a demand for resignations and so on. And then the final thing was a demand for wholesale change in the political system. So we really are now at a point where theres a direct ideological confrontation between protesters and between the Political Class that has vested interest. The protesters want complete change in all the principals, the system of governance weve had. The electoral law, the constitution, elections and a whole mass of institutions and documents that were, at the basis of the state after 2003. They want an overhaul of all of this and yet an overall is diametrically opposed to the Political Party and political interests that have become entrenched in iraq. Ideologically, not only physically, but ideologically, we have a confrontation. There have been attempts by the Prime Minister, by the president , of course by the majadia, there are attempts to say, we will reform, we will do the things the protesters are asking for but so far theres no indication from the establishment they really intend to go through this wholesale change in the political system. And, therefore, if we dont have a breakthrough in this confrontation, i dont were at an impasse and i think if the institutions of government and if the Political Class dont respond, we are going to have a continuation of the protests and my concern is theyre going to become more violent. Partly because there are signs now that some of the protesters are so fed up that theyre willing to go into armed conflict. More serious, more imminent, in my view, is there may be a confrontation between armed political groups themselves. Weve already seen some settling of scores, particularly among the shia militias. This has not been declared publicly but it has been understood on the street and in political circles that there are these efforts or actions of scoresettling. And i think that is the most dangerous thing that can emerge. That you have rival militias going against each other under the cover of the protests but really trying to gain the upper hand in a situation of chaos. Will go back through these and talk to them in our conversation. I would like to turn to joey. Last time we sat down in the embassy in baghdad, we had that beautiful outside seating and, you know, baghdad was looking more peaceful. That was in may of 2019. I went back in september and october. I witnessed the first week of the protests. And i visited the ambassador and we were talking about how things were looking better. There were two forums in baghdad in september. Both were talking about the economy and energy and unlike what used to be conferences about security and all of the other things, the green zone was open and you could drive through and it wasnt like youre driving through tunnels. And all of a sudden something just one thing led to another and like a volcano and things changed completely. I was counting days, would i be able to get out of the airport on time before they take it over. Thats the nature of iraq. From the American Point of view, United States has been the agent of change in iraq in 2003, has provided time and again so many assistance, packages to iraq on security and on other aspects, there is some strategic framework, and the u. S. Was instrumental in the help with the defeat of isis even though the iraqis did all of the heavy lifting and fighting. But it was very important for u. S. And International Communities engagement. Secretary pompeo made a statement of support for iraq in general. But my question is, where is the United States government now as it stands in terms of the protests, the government measures and also in light of the fact that, you know, the United States sensitivities must be considered. Some people think the United States should not publicly give any support for protests or any of that support, will not be viewed in different lens, but on the other hand, the u. S. Has its own long tradition of support of Democratic Change and reasonable pace which iraq has been going on and off on. What do you see the u. S. Government or where is the u. S. Government position right now on both these issues . First of all, thank you for having us here, abbas. Its an honor to be with you. And to be among so many mentors and friends and to once again say hello to the iraqi viewers who are watching. We are watching very carefully and closely whats happening in the country. Were very concerned about it. I think you heard us say several times that we call for nonviolence by all sides. That the rights of the protesters to protest peacefully should be and the demonstrators should not be violent, should not be carrying arms. Iraq is lucky to be one of the few places in the middle east where people can express their views loudly in the streets. As long as they do it peacefully, this is an extremely good way for the government to really know what theyre thinking and what theyre passionate about and to adjust course. And we recognize that we have to be careful about how we talk about these things because theres always people ready to criticize us and involve us in all sorts of conspiracy theories. But the reality is that we remain ready to help iraq built a stable and strong and sovereign government just like weve been doing. We think this is what the protesters want. This is what we want as well. Were ready to work with the government in putting together the any sort of reasonable response to the protesters demands, which we started to hear some of from his excellency, the president , yesterday. We would be interested to know what kind of timeline hes thinking about. We would be interested to know how we can be of assistance through the International Organizations or directly bilaterally. Were ready to help. Thank you. Mijid, youre the most important secretary in iraq because if not all at least, you know, the numbers go from 85 to 95 of the iraqi revenues come from the petroleum industry. And this cannot really stand without the support and participation of International Corporations that work in iraq and that contribute to the iraqi economy. There are also other businesses in energy like the ones who will deal with electricity and other projects that iraq is trying to accomplish. And also the rest of the industri industries. Now stability is very important for the work of these organizations and for your and companies corporations. Yours is one of those. And you take an important part of the iraqi industry there there is also stability is not only important for the International Corporations. We so even, you know, things like sports events. The Iraqi National team was supposed to play in basra and its either moved to another city or probably out of the country. So it is stability is really important. How do you think the International Business without their investors or corporations who work in iraq on the field view this and what are their sensitivities, their apprehension, maybe, or their fears, if you will also around the risks that can be coming out of this threatened stability and also to the continuation of the government . Thank you. Thank you for the easiest question so far. I am never going to do easy question. Its easier to talk about, you know, iraq taking whats below the ground and getting it up rather than, unfortunately, those who are above the ground being put into it. I hope and pray iraq achieves more of the former and less of the latter. So, the Energy Potential for iraq is huge. The proven reserves are 140 billion barrels of oil. That number, i believe, is well below the reality. Theres still hardly any exploration has been done. Its still very much in its infancy, the industry there, despite the fact were in the 21st century. And despite all the challenges, iraq is now achieving 5 Million Barrels a day, half a Million Barrels a day also from the kurdistan region. Really other than the United States, its been the big growth Oil Production and certainly the Fastest Growing in opec. That is despite the lack of legislation, the war on isis, the internal political wrangling over revenue sharing, the corruption, the lack of infrastructure. All those challenges, it has achieved such an incredible growth and maintenance of production. So, it just gives you an indication, if it can sort out some of the other necessary things, what is possible. I think you we as a company, were certainly very committed to iraq. Weve never stopped producing in the kurdistan region. We were awarded three more blocs with the federal government, including a difficult area which has been liberated from isis but we feel able to work there. Its really about Service Delivery. Jobs is key and the fact that growth has been sufficient is one of the reasons not only for iraq, around the world youre seeing a lot of these demonstrations because of insufficient growth and job creation. Service delivery in iraq has been a major drive since 2003. In particular, electricity, and clean water in the south was a big issue, especially in basra. And you know, it is a shame that despite such amazing resources, that hasnt been achieved yet. A lot of work is under way to try and, you know, achieve better delivery of these basic services. But the political system also needs to get together and take some strategic decisions. And some political decisions. I think that the one of the things thats been Holding Back Progress in the oil and gas sector is there isnt still this agreement implemented whats in the constitution, which is revenue sharing, basically, pro rata the population. There was an attempt years ago to package all the legislation in together. It was, unfortunately, failed and probably was too big an ask. Probably makes more sense, first, how are you going to share the pie . And after that, everybody has an interest in growing the pie. And thats more on the investment loaws. Theres a lot of work that still needs to be done but, no doubt, iraq has Great Potential in this sector. Well, let me follow up on this and one of the issues that you have to deal with as International Corporations in the oil sector, in the petroleum sector, is this lack of legislation that can make things easier for iraqis and also for their international partners. And you are sort of study and closely following the iraqi legislative system. What would make it easier for both sides . In other words, looking for something that is fair for both the iraqis and the International Corporations to be included in that law . So, i think on again, theres two separate debates. One is the political one internally, how does iraq split the revenues from oil and gas . And the principle is clear, its proportional to population, but putting it in place. And i think that needs before you start putting drafts to parliament, there needs to be political agreement. And that hasnt really taken place yet. And then the separate one is about investors and host government in terms of the fiscal terms. There has been evolution there. There was, you know, complaints from the International Oil companies about the original fiscal terms because they were it wasnt just about the rate of return. It was the structure was a Service Agreement where it was costplus and the investors basically become contractors. Had no incentive to keep their costs down. In fact, an incentive to increase their costs. And very little incentive to innovate and optimize beyond that because they got like 1 a barrel or whatever it was. Thats evolved. And the federal ministry with the last bid round and now their current model, which they got International Expertise in, is more a typical investortype agreement. More importantly, they put a price on natural gas and backed it up with somo guarantees including with crude. Thats very important to achieve investment in natural gas. Many countries, particularly in the middle east, have failed to price the gas. And not surprisingly, theres very little investment in that sector in the upstream. Iraq has huge potential in natural gas. Not only to meet its own needs for power and industry, but also to be a major exporter both by pipeline and potentially lng if the market is there. Well, thank you for that. Back to rend. You mentioned i mean, i gave you so many questions and i realize that. But thats what we do as academics. Im trying to learn to be in this business. You know, because students, you know, you need to really test whats there and thats you know, how to go from talking to students to experts, thats a different story. But let me follow up on my questions and also your answers. So, what we go with right now with the protests, people talk about two scenarios are most plausible. Either the resignation of adil ab dullmahdis resonation, especially those who have their eyes on his job and they think realistically they can have it. There are those who are more interested in reform and they think that the resignation of Prime Minister abdulmahdi will put the country through long constitutional vacuum, perhaps the parties wouldnt be able to form another government for a long time. And either you risk continued protests and protests means basically a lot more destruction, the country will be halt i halting its activities for a long time and that will hurt so many people, especially unintended victims like the idps who are waiting to have government give them back and so many others, and the business as well. That needs iraqi signing contracts and they need to have those on the ground to me, the protest. So between these two, the resignation or the continuation of the government and the parliament and have them be the agents of change and reform, where do you lean and what do you think is the more realistic and more plausible scenario . Well, i think its important to always keep in mind that Adil Abdulmahdi became Prime Minister as a compromise solution. And that there was no single bloc that nominated him. It was an agreement between anyway, Muqtada Al Sadrs bloc and al hamras block. They got together and chose somebody who was seen as an independent inspect in other words, not belonging to either of their political groups. At the outset, this looked like a sensible arrangement. But Adil Abdulmahdi arrived as Prime Minister with a legacy of a political system that has been hobbled and dysfunctional and certainly not not highly regarded by the population. So, he did come with this baggage. He had to deal with this baggage. The fact that he did not have the backing of a single major party rather than being an asset has now proved to be a liability because theres nobody defending him. And even Muqtada Al Sadr who was originally a great backer came out openly a few days ago and said Adil Abdulmahdi should resign. The problem is there are mechanisms. I dont think the resignation of the government or the dissolution of parliament is going to create this vacuum and unknown future. The problem is not that. The problem is what is going to replace them . And if you are looking from the perspective of the protesters, it is not enough for one individual to be scapegoated and to resign if, in fact, the replacement is also going to be somebody from the powers that be. They are looking for radical change. I hate to use this term. They want to see a paradigm shift in the politics of iraq. Okay. So, the resignation of Adil Abdulmahdi on its own unless its tied to a more farreaching and Broader Vision of reform is not going to help. The dissolution of parliament and early elections, if we follow the same electoral law with the same or a similar type of Electoral Commission and the same party law, Political Party law. Thats an important element. If those remain unchanged, we are going to reproduce the same type of parliament. All of those are not going to be the type of reform that people want and are calling for. Not only the people, but the majiheda has been very clear about the farreaching reform that needs to occur. We have the significant nation of sal hariri in lebanon. This was probably a tactical move because there were others in the government he wants to get rid of. If he resigns, the entire government falls and so on, so he can get rid of some faces. In iraq its different. You cant have one man resigning only to be reproduced by somebody similar. And so what do i see . Perhaps a resignation of the government. Adil abdulmahdi has offered to resign, once a replacement is found, according to the speech by president barham salih yesterday. Which came after a letter he signed. Thats the frame of no. The talk is, and lets go back a few days. We really are talking in terms of days in iraq now because every day and every hour things change. There was discussion between abdulmahdi and Muqtada Al Sadr that they should find a replacement for abdulmahdi. There were reports that salih was in baghdad, met with them and said you should not change abdulmahdi and he reversed himself. Theres all sorts of interests at play here. The picture is becoming more complicated. Will abdulmahdi resign . Will he not resign . If he resigns, who will replace him . And so on. I think an orderly transition with reforms in the electoral law, in the commission, in the party law, early elections based on those, and a caretaker government, whether its a government that under abdulmahdi but a caretaker government to see us through a certain period of time is, to my mind, is the most orderly way to do it. Now, the problem with the president s speech, as you mentioned, is that it was little short on detail, but i understand because theyre going through consultations and processes, but more to the point, it had no timeline. If, as some people have suggested that elections should take place in two years, i can tell you thats not going to be a satisfactory solution. There has to be a short timeline in order to light a fire under people and to keep their focus. So, is it going to be a revolution . Is it going to be an evolution . Perhaps by my nature im more of an evolutionary person, but i think that evolution needs to be anchored in extremely solid steps of reform, legislation, followed by elections within six months maybe and then followed by a review of the constitution. And that is actually where the president s speech was leading also, is that everything has to be done through the constitutional framework because iraq, unlike other countries, some other countries in the region where the only way you can have change is by some means that are extraordinary, iraq has a process in place and still can serve for an evolutionary change, in fact. Joey sure, please. May i just comment . Article 64 of the constitution, which my friend fasel knows by heart not the whole constitution, the article. Article 64 which i read and reread in the last two days. There are two mechanisms for dissolving parliament. What barham salih said is i will agree to a to early elections, which presumes the dissolution of parliament. There are two ways of dissolving parliament. Either the parliament dissolves itself by a vote of twothirds. Well, theyre never going to do that. Why should they . Or by a dual request from the Prime Minister and the president. And that certainly is possible. Now, the elections are supposed to take place 60 days after the dissolution. That seems to be a short timeline, but it could be worked around. So, it is possible to dissolve parliament. But i would like i would have liked the president , who has actually been the president who has really been able to preserve his credibility with the population. And i think obama will push back because the article 64, like Everything Else in the constitution, you have to read it backward and forward and bring some friends to help you. Yes. But what it is basically one of the readings that the ambassador has to it, and he is a legal scholar of great stature. I always defer to him on those issues. Is basically that onethird of the parliament can initiate the call and twothirds requires twothirds vote. Yes. The other is the Prime Minister would request the president would approve dissolution of the parliament, but it has, and thats where the ambassador goes, it has also after the president approves it, it has to have twothirds of the parliament to approve that, which means really that there is no substance to this authority that the constitution gives to the president. We can discuss that. At the end of the day. I agree to do that. But i agree with you. 64 is really and also the ambassador always brings was it 56 or 56 where it gives the parliament a fouryear term. Basically you have to interpret one with the other. So, im sure the floor will have many questions on that and from the audience. Now, joey, let me ask you in light of the same arguments that rend was making. As basically the United States here is looking at iraq and it has two things major areas to focus on. One is the internal politics of iraq and what is going all of the u. S. Investment in iraq and treasury and International Relations or bilateral relations and the potential of u. S. iraqi relations, but also the regional security, regional developments, what goes on in syria, turkey and in general. What are the what is the order of concerns the United States is looking at from possible threats and risks and possible consequences of what goes on in iraq if the scenario goes, god forbid to something worse, or if there is something that is going to be prolonged protests . It goes back to our fundamental goal for our policy with iraq, which is a strong, stable and sovereign Iraqi Government. Because if youve got that, then youve got a great environment for american businesses to work in the oil sector or in other sectors of the economy. If youve got that, then youve got a strong iraq that can push back on, as ive said before,ist totally abnormal for a special forces commander from a foreign country to be coming into another country and meeting with Political Party leaders and telling them anything. You know, a strong, stable and sovereign iraq should be able to push back on that and say, get out of here. And to be able also to project stability into places like syria by keeping a Strong Border and by enabling Counterterrorism Operations across the border so that organizations like isis cant resurge. So, thats our goal. And what were putting into it is well and publicly known because we have to go up to congress and say, may we have some money to do this . And so you can look up all these numbers. Were the biggest humanitarian donor, were the biggest donor to security assistance, to the Iraqi Security forces. Were the biggest donor to demining assistance and we have been for many years. What what form does iranian assistance take . Who knows what that looks like. How much money are they putting into it . How much money are they taking out . Nobody knows these things because of the way they do business. We would like to see that changed and we want to see it changed through a strong, stable and sovereign Iraqi Government. And i believe that thats exactly what the protesters are saying when they say, [ speaking Foreign Language ] they want a country. It cant be translated into english precisely, but thats what they want. They dont want to be a battlefield. They dont want to be an asset. They dont want to be a throuuw for somebody else. We completely agree with them. All right. I would love to go for more but i think i need to give the audience the chance to also ask and see what we can get or where we can get the conversation going. Ambassador silliman. Yeah, doug silliman, president of the Gulf States Institute and former ambassador to iraq and a colleague of joey hood. I think this is for ambassadll. Im struck that the demonstration has largely been in baghdad and south. My question is, what is the attitude and participation in the kurdistan region, in anbar, in saladahen, how do other Political Parties in other parts of the country view and participate in this protest against government inefficiency and how are they participating in the discussions of potential reform, other than barham salih . Thank you, ambassador. This is so central to problems that ail iraq. And ive been thinking about this and trying to disentangle. First of all, let me just say preemptively that there have been there was a demonstration by University Students in support. There was also a letter of support signed by about 100 kurdish members of the kurdish intelligence in support. So, whereas there have not been protests in kurdistan, there have been statements of support. In the last few days there were also in anbar some small protests that came out in support of the protests in the south. Not their own protests but these were solidarity protests. They were quickly snuffed out by isf, by the Iraqi Security forces. So, going back to this question, why is it happening in the shia areas . Well, first of all, because the sunni areas in 2012, when they protested, they were immediately branded as baaths, as terrorists and so on. And they were mostly crushed by maliki, if you recall. And then they were accused of being the pathway those protesters in anbar were being the pathway of daash into iraq. So the last thing protesters in those areas want to do is attract accusations of being baaths, of being daashs or allows terrorists to come in. So theyre very hesitant to expose themselves to these accusations. So, thats one reason. I think the deeper reason is that the shia feel this is our government, this is shialed government and we are shia. And this government, this shialed government, and lets face it, it is. Came to power in 2003 to respond to our grievances as shia, to elevate us as shia from the oppression of Saddam Hussein and so on. But while they have taken all of the spoils, the shia leaders, we have had nothing. Busra is a terrible state, and they are predominantly shia, and all of the south is predominantly shia, and so there a feeling of the shia that this government that is supposed to be ours and supposed to represent us has let us down. Now, for the sunnis, i dont think that there is the same sense that this is our government. Theres much more participation by the sunnis now than we saw after 20 03 and the sunnis are much more part of the political process, the decisionmaking process, but for the mass of the sunnis, it is not yet something that they feel they can appropriate themselves. And then of course, dont forget that all of these provinces have just come out from under daesh. They have their own problems. They have their own needs of reconstruction and bringing home idps and reconciliation among themselves, and so they have, and so there is really a distinction between, and this distinction is going to problems that iraq is facing today. And so this is picked up as well on this today in the sermon, and i dont have the exact wording in front of me, but it could be interpreted one part of it as saying that dont forget that this is the shia areas, but it is all about iraq and components of iraq, and i thought that was a very Important Message to hear. I just wanted to build on something which rend said that, you know, constitutional reform, electoral law reform may all be required. Im not an expert, but i believe that the iraqi constitution is not perfect, one from of them are, and it is not the only country to look at the removal of the 2 3 of removing the chif at the moment in the government, and so that is going to take time, and a lot of time, and b, i dont see how they address the needs of the demdemonstrators, because the crisis now of the Iraqi Government is not one of democratic legislation or the constitution, and those we are asking for it, and there are some seeing it as a way to change the whole system, but what they are really asking for is jobs, Service Delivery and lack of corruption. And taking a year or two to change the electoral law or even reform the constitution is not going to help with those. What i see is where the problem lies is in the executive and the Service Delivery by the government is failing, and that needs to kind of, you know, the Emergency Council on the job creation or the Emergency Task force on the electricity delivery and giving them the freedom if necessary of some, you know, outside expertise to have an action plan and delivering and somehow keeping those immune to political interference and corruption, and the kind of pulling this way and that way by all of the parties which has so far stymied the governments progress. Can i respond . Yes. I hate to disagree with you, but i think that the demands of the protesters have gone beyond asking for jobs and services. I think that was true on october 1st, 2nd, 3rd, but i think that as i have tried to show, they have changed. Now, keep in mind that i think it was october 4th, the Prime Minister came out and said we are going to create more government jobs. The government is already in deficit, and the Public Service sector, the Public Sector is bloated. So, i dont know how they are going to create jobs and how they will pay for them. The Prime Minister also talked about a new package, an additional package of social welfare and in that speech, he tried to respond to the services demands of the demonstrators. But i think that by then we had gone beyond that, and i dont think that any kind of Service Delivery, and they cant create Better Health overnight, and they cant create better schooling over nighnight, and c more schooling overnight. So it i think that it is going to take more time than reforming the electoral law and im not talking about the constitution, but reforming the electoral law and having new elections and having a new government. I think that can be done in a shorter period of time. You also spoke about creating jobs and creating Services Without the interference and the derailing effect of corruption. That you are absolutely right, but i dont think it is possible to do that unless you have a major reform of the political system. Always, you know, this, you know, you have this spark and then you have the early demands and once people are on the streets, they raise the ceiling, and then just like in negotiations, you have to go back and so this is going to be a really an ever e vovolving ofs and counter offers, and also so many moving targets, and yes . Look, i think that we are in agreement and my point was that you not assuage the government by offering hundreds of thousands of more job, and changing the electoral law is not going to be enough, and they see it as an end, and you cant wait for that, and i heard from a senior, and one of the most senior iraqi politicians at the moment, and he described it quite simple and quite well, and on the political front, they are in a good place, and blocks in parliament, and they have a sunni and shia and kurd in it, but that is not where we were, and so we came from a system of socialist system of control for three years of the rights and the Service Delivery and all that, and we took it away and we declared in the constitution an aspiration for a marketled economy with the privatesector led growth and capitalism and so on. We took two steps forward and stopped, right . So we either continue, and achieve that aspiration or go back to what we have, and really, you know, become socialist again, and support, because if we are staying in the limbo of the cronyism and the capitalist state, he will not accept it or tolerate it, and he said that a year ago. And that is the hybrid of all of them, and we have a microphone for you. Thank you very much. And thank you very much for the very fascinating discussion, but if i could push back a little bit if i may. And picking up on what majit was just saying in the last two remarks that he made, and you talked about the evolutionary change and you began evolutionaryist, and you are not the only evolutionaryist, and the Political Parties are also extremely evolutionary, and we have had three sets of electoral laws in iraq, and starting with the first electoral law which the United Nations drew up for iraq and treating iraq as a single district, and whatever it was closed list, et cetera, proportional representation. The basic parties that have been elected to parliament have not fundamentally changed and notwithstanding the electoral laws over the last 15 year. And what gives you any, and that is what the parties do, and the electoral laws change, and they evolve to adapt to the new environment, and come up to the top again, and we have been dealing with the same personalities more or less for 16 years, and what makes you optimistic that changing the electoral law will yield any of the salutary results that you hoped for. Thank you. It depends upon what changes you make. This becomes a rather technical discussion that i would love to have with you, and there have been some ideas floated that, remember, it is not a bad thing to have Political Parties. And there are Political Parties in all democracies, and it is a question of how you elect your representatives, and i think that there have been suggestions for an electoral law that is more reflective of the voters choice, okay. I am sorry that i dont want to go into it, because there are different models that are being muted and i know that in the president s office in working with unami and so on, they are looking at the options. Sir . Im william brie from dynamic international, and i fear that you cannot fight somebody politically with nobody. I worry about the demonstrations at the moment have not coalesced behind an individual or a set of principles, and i think that you said that they keep moving the goalposts and ambassador, you said that things change from one day to another, and to me, to avoid falling into more violence, you know, i think that they need a leader, and they need a gandhi, and you know, maybe assad or somebody to coalesce the opposition behind him, behind the single set of demands before they can go some place. Is that right . So, i dont know. We were actually debating this interesting global phenomenon now whether it is iraq, lebanon, sedan, algeria, hong kong or chile or further afield, you dont get leaders, but they are organized through the social media, and it is not meaning that they cannot achieve change, because at least sudan, and algeria and iraq, they have brought down governments, but what can you achieve beyond that is not yet clear, but it seems to be, and i dont know the answer that we live in a world where you dont have anymore or maybe you dont need, i dont know, the gandhis and the mandelas and the figures. But i defer to more experienced people. Well, i dont have more experience in the revolution, but i think that you can tie them together. People are coming out and protesting, because they feel that their elected representatives are not reflective of their views, and so they are coming out and yelling the views. And so that is what a reformed electoral system needs to do, and so that people know who they voted for, and who represents them in the parliament, and who they can come to harass when they need something, and they see something they dont like. I know who i can do that to in the u. S. Congress who represents me, but no iraqi can say the same about the council of representatives. Gentlemen, i am sorry, you wanted to chime in . Yes. I wanted to say that there are slogans or the branding if you want. Maybe not individuals, but jerry hood mentioned this watan and it is like you owe something to, and allegiance that you are tied to, and so this is a major slogan, and so this type of the branding which is im sure people doing this and thinking up these slow gansgans or [ speaking Foreign Language ] a phrase meaning im going to go out to claim my rights. So this is a sort of the glue for these protests that, sure, it doesnt replace known lead leadersh leadership, but it is earn will i going to give but it is certainly going to give the protesters a certain cohesiveness, and that may be helpful. The third row here. Yes, i have two questions here. One for ambassador rend, and do you believe that there is something missing in the demonstrations in iraq and in the protests and the socalled iraqi identity . Do you believe that the changesl bring the iraqi identity rather than the shia or the ethnic identity for the country . My second question is for joey. I would like to hear your assessment about muk tar al sadr, and do you believe he is part of the problem or the solution in iraq. And that is easy, yes. You are done . Yes, i am done. Please please. I have been sort of really quite surprised and there has been for sort of years that people say that there is no iraqi identity, and there is no national identity. And they say the same thing about lebanon that there is nobody who believes in a lebanese identity, and everybody is thinking about, well, i am christian, and muslim and shia, and so i have always doubted that. I feel both in lebanon and iraq, there is in fact an identity, and that it is, as has been submerged by a Political Class whose interests is in fragmenting this identity and undermining it into primary allegiances. And so i think that one of the really good things about the protesters in iraq and similarly, i know we have been talking about iraq echos lebanon, lebanon, and lebanon mirrors iraq and so on, and i think that the healthy thing that i have seen emerge in iraq is that suddenly the read watan and those slogans that carry the iraqi flag as opposed to any other flag, and that declare no [ speaking Foreign Language ] which means no sectarianism that this really shows that an iraqi identity exists and that it is trying to breakout from the chains or anything that has been trying to fragment it. I think it is an extremely healthy sign, and if there is anything that im really, you know, encouraged by, it is that. I am also encouraged that christians have also shown support, and some kurds have shown support, and people in anbar have shown support, and yes, that i have not come out to protest for the reasons that i tried to explain that i believe in, but there is a National Solidarity in the name of this watan. Sarah. Actually, this question is for rend and majit as joey is my boss twice removed. Rend and majit, do you believe that there is going to be a moment where the Political Parties with armed wings would say, okay, enough is enough and lets crush the protesters even more about what has happened in iran and into iran into 2009 or in china in 89 . You go first. No, no, ladies first. I insist. Oh, dear. Because you made a comment earlier about, that you said that they would go at each other before. Yes, i said that they would go at each other. The Political Parties want to preserve their interests, and no question about that. Now, how far will they go to achieve that . We have already had hundreds of dead, and nobody knows of the exact number, because of it, but it is certainly hundreds and thousands are wounded, and how far will the armed Political Parties, and i mean, there are the communist party is not armed, but there are Political Parties that are, and how far are they willing to go to quell the protests . What will the backlash be . And i think that by the way here, the response of the International Community is key. Because when the special representative, that the head of the unami, the head of iraq, has produced two reports, and amnesty has produced a report yesterday. I think that International Community and heavens, Mitch Mcconnell mentioned it in the senate yesterday and in australia it has been raised in parliament. The response of the International Community is going to be key to how far the repression can go. I think that is going to be a crucial element. Majit . I dont have much to add to that. And no, i dont have much to add to that, and of course, everybody is hoping and praying that there is not going to be violence and lives lost, and the sheer scale of the demonstrations and the fact that they are across the south gives them significant legitimacy and any violence against them will delegitimize whoever commits it and the backers, and that needs to be taken into account. And now to the gentleman there in the middle. I did not mean to dismiss the question, but we are willing to work with anyone in iraq who is willing to work with iraq. And so the iraqis are asking the same thing, but it is to disentangle the religion from politics and from militias. All armed groups need to be under the control of the Central Government, and that is a fact. And everyone agrees with that, i think between the u. S. Government and the Iraqi Government. The disentangling of religion from politicsk and we heard majit talk about it earlier how some of the coalitions and the parties are now cross sectarian, and there needs to be more of that so that the people wont look at a particular party leader and say they are only for the shiaer to kurds or the sunnis or whatever, and we want a Central Government in iraq, and that is what we want to support. Thank you. Right here . Thank you very much. Wonderful discussion. I have a quick question to majit jaffir. The iraqi protesters have been not violent and particularly in najif. And i am sure that you are watching every single detail in iraq, and just two days ago i heard that somebody in busra from the protesters calling to go to oilfields and we know that some of the protesters closed and you know, City Councils and the name of the iraqi people, you know, and is that, to what extent that you will see this really serious and may influence the political scenes and the economy in iraq . So there were different reports, and i am not claiming to be fully up to date, because i have been in the u. S. For the last couple of days and traveling a lot, but i have read that there were reports that had come out that said that the workers had gone on strike, but it turned out they were demonstrating on their day off, which is amazingly responsible. So they did not, and so i mean, they did not want to harm iraqs production, but at the same time, they wore their uniforms, and that caused the confusion. They wore their overalls and the hard hats and marched together with the Company Slogans in support of with the demonstrations, but they did it on their day off. So, so far there has not been any impact. There have been in the past, of course, roadblocks, demonstrations outside of the field facilities, and this is because they know that this is obviously of huge concern to the government, and this is going to get into the National Community quickly, and which it does, because in 1979 once an iocs workers went on strike, the shah fell within 24 hours, because that is the life blood of unfortunately the economies is still the oil and gas. But we have not seen any impact yet and what we have seen is more of a peaceful protest and not violence against any International Investors or, you know, or around these facilities as far as i have heard. Over to you, beun. I thank you, because it has been a fascinating discussion, and there is total empathy and sympathy with the protesters across kurdistan and some of the political leaders have made statements that their grievances are legitimate and also calling for an end to violence on both sides. I want to make one short comment, and then ask the question. I would argue that the sunnis and the kurds have already had their protests, as rend you mentioned that the sunnis did protest, and they were crushed brutally, and you could argue that the kurdish referendum on independence was a rm to of protest and also a positive thing, and we have a spirit of independence, and i have been told like texas. But also, it is a protest. It is a protest against not being really part of the system and not really being represented. So i would argue that the kurds and the sunnis have had their protests, and they were dealt with in whatever way they were dealt with, and now it is the turn of the shia, and i hope that their protests will be listened to, and will in fact improve things for all of us in iraq. Whoever we are. Now, my question is how would you assess to all of the panel, how would you assess the reaction of the immediate neighbors of iraq . Is their reaction a cause for celebration or commiserating . Well, you know i will say that we have seen all of the reports, and seeing the flying into baghdad and taking charge and giving advice. So if i were a protester, this is exactly what i would be saying and pointing to, to say i dont want this. I want my own country and i dont want somebody else coming in here to el the us how the run it. I think that you have seen from the regime in teheran over the years how they deal with protests. The iraqi people are saying that we wont have that. There have been a couple of hundred deaths that we have deplored, and the iraqi people have said that we are not going home. We are not going to be cowed by that. So if the iranians are thinking of trying to handle the protests in iraq the way they do in their own country, they need to think again. I wish they would not interfere with this and allow the iraqis to peacefully demonstrate and tell their government how they feel feel. If you sort of look around iraqs neighbors, who do we have . The kuwaitis certainly do not want to get involved in any way. Nor do the saudis. The jordanians of course are impacted because theres a disruption in iraq which affects the trade and the so on and so forth. I am sure that the jordanians are also afraid that the breakdown can allow daesh to make renewed inroads in iraq. And this is always a fear. And then you have syria, and syria has its own problems, and turkey for whom the kurdish issue is the paramount issue as you very well know, and therefore syria and turkey, and this is their primary concern right now. Which again leaves us with iran, and that is the one neighbor that has a direct imminent interest in what is going on in iraq. You know, i dont want to go too far in assigning the responsibility, but to look at the paraplem of the iraqi surroundings, either the countries dont want to get involved and just keep me away or they are too busy with other stuff right now, and that leaves iran unfortunately. And iran has a very strong interest in maintaining the status quo. This is the fact. So i dont have anything to add to the regional analysis, but what is interesting this time, every summer iraq has had demonstrations triggered by electricity, and 50 degrees and no electricity and people are fed up, and so historically, you have, you know, when the monarchy fell in july and july is a hot month, but what is interesting this time it is not triggered by that, and iraq had a much better summer with electricity, and we are in november now, and it is not a time when the associated temperatures are high, and so it does really seem to be about like rend said that there is something systemic that is felt that is wrong, and they need the system to change, because of the way it is going now, it is not delivering on their aspirations and needs. Right. Speaking of electricity, and actually last night we lost power, and i had all night long and this morning i got ready on the candlelight and i have never done, that and then i was looking, and i called louie, and i said we dont have any electricity, and he said, i am working on the square, and once it is restored there, we will get to you, but you are right, it is deeper than just electricity. We have one last question, and then three quick questions and then we will wrap up. Yes. By the way, he was the minister of electricity in iraq. Mr. Lahoud, we have heard of the independence, and what you have seen in terms of progress and what elts washington is looking for in that issue . Well, i wish that i could point po more pto more progress there have been a few deals with the european and american countries, but we need to see more progress as quickly as possible. It is so unfair that so much gas is flared into the air, and then turns around to purchase natural gas and gas to iran and that is like carrying the coals to new castle. So there are plenty of American Companies with the Technology Available to help them do that. We think it is the best route when you are looking to reduce the corruption as well, because the American Companies have a strong reputation for transparency, and so that i would also say that iraq has shown the capability. As you mentioned, majit, it is producing at historic levels, and they have never produced so much oil, and so things can be done, but there needs to be a serious focus on it, and that is again what the protesters are saying, that nobody is taking seriously what we are asking for, and hopefully now they will. And i think that the key now is to focus on the costs as far as the iraqi budget and the reliability of the supply absent politics. And you know, joey is right, there is plenty of local Gas Resources that could fuel electricity and he mentioned the flaring in the south, but also in the center and the north there is nonassociated gas that could be brought on to production and we are producing 400 cubic meters per day in the middle region, and a power plant built less than 100 kilometers within the federal iraq which are needing gas, and we are taking our production up to 1 billion cubic feet per day in a next couple of days and part of that could be supplied to federal iraq at a fraction of the cost of the gas. And also, the diyalah blocks with the gas there, and we have been waiting for the signatures to get on within a year to produce a couple of hundred million cubic feet of gas. So flaring in the south is important, but the shortages are further north, and there is gas there, and nonassociated gas there that could be rapidly brought on. It just needs some decisions to move forward. All right. Very short answers but not yes and no. Majit, iraqi energy independence, is that a short term and midterm or long term or whoever not never. It could be and should be short term and by that i mean a couple of years. It really shouldnt take more than that to enable selfsufficiency. And the import was supposed to be temporary anyway, and that is how it was declared way back when, and coal to new castle is exactly. And when i heard the ideas, and import from the l g or the neighbors, come on, it makes no sense at all. And joey, you have a meeting to go to, and so a quick question really. We are speaking about the possibility a couple of times of you and i of getting the Basra Council to reopen and now with the current situation, will you continue to speak about it, or do you think that it is a possibility . Basra consulate did a lot of great work in iraq actually. They did. And from the days of steve wilker. Yes. And so where do you think that is . You said that i cant say yes and i cant say no, and can i say maybe . Ah. The United States remains committed to our presence in iraq, and that is one of the reasons that we are building a stateoftheart facility for a new consulate in irbil, and so we are not going anywhere. Right now, we cannot talk about taking the consulate off of the suspension of the operation, but we are hoping to have that conversation soon when there is peace, stability, and a strong sovereign government that is in charge of security throughout all of iraq and not other actors. And rend, do you see a finish of the term of the government or the president salis in the roadmap of the speech accomplished or the protesters will have their way . The roadmap of burrham salah is designed to meet the protesters demands, but it is not far enough or specific enough. So if that is develop ed and if he can actually get the processes going and so on, then there is a possibility of you know, comforting the protesters, but all i can say is that i dont know. Because things are dynamic and changing. We dont know. And that is the one step away from joeys maybe. Yes, but i think that we have to be honest. It has been a fascinating discussion, and thank you for our panel, and thank you all for attending, and i appreciate it. Thank you a lot. Thank you. Today a microsoft executive is going to testify about data breaches before a Senate Judiciary subcommittee and coverage begins at 2 30 on cspan3 and online on cspan org or listen free on the cspan radio app. This week on cspan3 at 8 00 p. M. Eastern watch the samples of our hes tri coverage featured every weekend on American History tv. Tonight, the Supreme Court justices Ruth Bader Ginsberg and sew sotomayor. And also, look at the impeachments of Richard Nixon and bill clinton. 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