Is not [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] hi, everyone. We are about to start a second panel for the day. Thank you for coming. This panel is parliamentary elections and implications on u. S. Iran relations. Today this panel will be moderated by behnam ben taleblu, fellow, senior fellow for the foundation for defense of democracies. And also join him on the panel is naysan rafati, seiio at the crisis group and holly dagres, senior fellow at the atlantic council. Unfortunately, Suzanne Maloney was not able to make it today so we will leave them so please join. Thank you for. Welcome back to the Welcome Center thank you to those who lingered and remained from the split of those of you join, thank you for joining this paneo as those those streaming adult for the virtual audience. The bias of a a distinguished panelists are more fully Available Online fashion and as was said suzanne cant m we wish her well and a speedy recovery. Otherwise i want to make three very quick plug from three very different organizations about iran and middle i related, holly dagres to my left, dont take it politically, is editor and producer and field by substacknot mistaken. Naysan rafati contributes to the monthly, monthly production at icj icg and has the overnight brief ind of propensity things related. For those who are struggling to keep up with the delusion of regional and iran and other, yol three of those. At that would set the scene a little bit with zooming in on one area of consensus, which is when we were prepping for the family said to parliamentary elections really matter . I want to turn over to naysan tr in the republic of iran . Dcs at some version of this debate every time theres a president ial election, every time by an election, and vice versa. So do these things matter . You. I give a classic d. C. Editor classic d. C. Question. Yes and no. So foronn on the first of march held do elections with the parliament and for the assembly of experts which is the next Supreme Leader. In terms of the results of election i can give you a six ax word summary, sweeping disqualification turnout, conservative consolidation. We can all go home. Thats not really the point. Is, do elections matter, parliamentary election, present elections matter and iran . I would say that without getting into the details opposed military history lets just focus on the last decade had thl elections and three parliamentary elections. You can look at this ten year period as a game of two halves. Everything i will say qualified within the parameters of what is acceptable under the Islamic Republic. When we refer to someone being a conservative or a reformist or pragmatist i think this i discussed my enough with that nomenclature to know that were speaking within the confines of what the system allows as its own opposition for his loyal supporters. So if you go back to 2013th we have a pendulum swing within the narrow parameter the system allows from the two terms of the ahmadinejad administration. Sayt president s dont matter, parliament so meta. I think the transition there shows that again within tha divn economic policies some degree social policy, certain Foreign Policy. And tt president ial election in 2013 was, ambassador wooster use the phrase not free and not fear. That is true. Election dash iranian election jeffrey a not fair. That is not to say the not competitive or cable throwing ya president ial election that brought in the elements in government that broadly referred to as pragmatist relatively centrist, not the reformist but also not hardline ideologues of the ahmadinejad here. Those forces consolidated again in 2016 with the elections with the Parliament Elections and again with president rouhani we election into a 17, again in all three of those elections reasonably robust turnout in the low 70s for the president ial election, and fairly convincing wins for that branch of the iranian political spectrum. As i said a game of two halves and this last election, parliamentary election, you can look at it with a six word summary i gave you, or you can look at as part of a trend line of the past couple of years where first you had a parliamentary election in 2020 that kind of set the stage for what we saw two weeks ago. Again, with fairly sweeping disqualifications, fairly limited participation. In fact, 2020 set a record low for participation, which is only beaten two weeks ago with the 1 turnout. And what happened in between was the election of president rai, and another record low turnout. The numbers actually dont flatter and still deceived when president raisi one office, thes like ballots. And again in this recent election, the 41 turnout blank has been announced by the government, even though you had high singledigit blank so what happened on the first of march i would situate within that swing of the pendulum of three Successive National elections the system even by its own standards, even within parameters of iranian National Elections has essentially drawn up the■9 drawbridge to kind of bring together a consolidation of not just nonreformists or nonpragmatists but a very, very conservative leaning towards hardline base. And that i think is where i would situate the elections and why they matter. Im glad youentioned those trendlines in particular the three lower tiered historically lower tiered turnips, february 2020, spring spring 2021 and now again march 2024, for parliament as well as for president. But those trendlines tell a story of society as well nottran but social dispossession, social apathy and visually built off as you know a whole series of boom and bust protest 172020 at thet into 2021, twice in 2022 come once a make and once again begin a september a make and once massive protest. Holly, you into my track these protests online, social media intimately coming out of in is not on a daily but hourly basis. What would you say is a popular attitude towards these elections general . The irony of ironies of new ways, and nationalist post revolutionary society, sector society but until really that time that naysan was talk about, 2017 to President Trump you had really high turnout by iraniansl elections within concurrent with foreign pressure, concurrent with his domestic series of protests you a bad moving away from the ballot box. This one trendlines beget the other . Is it because one thing there any population is moving away from the ballot box, the embrace the street as a better msu abous talk about the Guardian Council of qualifications, they cant is that the logistic process or is it street power that is attractive in and move them away from the ballot box . I would argue its a bit of both. It started i think, how many are the Supreme Leader of ivins the talk about the islamic volution 2. 0 basically his vision for an Islamic Republic postmortem. Hes been think about this for years to see a hardline dominated relatively pious relatively young government in he seen and all three branches of government, the presidency, the legislative and the judiciary. Soeeing all these disqualifications over the years. I think just to tie into the ths protests since 79 in terms of geography at the time was the december 2017 january 2018 later we saw that company two years later we saw that parliamentary election with a low turnout with hardliners in only about to run marlis in this election. At theime the authorities blame the coronavirus for the long trip because a qualifier sister to just become the thing and eventually iran would have the largest number of deaths and cases in t region. But the trend continues with the present election. They gave president raisi the present of a silver platter and a lot of iranians did not vote. That just to talk about numbers for a second, even before these parliamentntary electio, the irs agency it published pawling sylvia three percenter tt. Another institute said 77 of iranians inside the country would not vote. So what we saw on march 1 was the lowt tur in the Islamic Republic 45 year history. So why is that . Yes, it is a mix of hardliners leaving the scene but its alsoh the status quo. Mitchard those protest early that with the biggest since 79 at the time. One of the popular chance was reformist hardliners game is over. So really signaled iranians didnt really care who is in office. They were set up with the status quo. I would achieve a lot of the low turnout to the disenchantment with the clerical establishment onx■ several fronts. Part because this systemic corruption, mismanagement and a rise in oppression. The outcome highlights illegitimate the clerical establishment has been in the eyes of the people. When you look at just some of te happening along the election there was a hashtag, and basically translates as no way i will ve former members of the diaspora Opposition Coalition known as the georgetown ate that were leading some of this that we are also seeing folks like imprisoned Nobel Peace Prize laureate call for for a boy. With us some of the former polii was a candidates in different parts, reformist that were imprisoned and were also calling for this. And ironically, or not president did not vote in this election and that was actually a first and it surprised a lot of people but i think it shows for the clerical establishment. If theres an image uncoated takes a moderate prominent because something that folks were looking at to see almost as bellwether. But if theres an image of this quoteunquote election or selection it is i believe the 96yearold, 97, happy birthday, 97yearold ayatollah who now dual hatted i believe come ahead of the symbol of experts and head of the Guardian Council, him try to to put the paper slip into the quoteunquote ballot box and some of having to guide his handpicked the image of a guided process of an octogenarian if not even adequate establishment tryin to maneuver their weight around the process that doesnt even suit them. The picture is i think a lot of an find go find it. Its a picture like that really is what 1000 a thousand woa thousand words. Holly talked about the mood on the street, disconcerting pattern of protest. Mass disenchantment. I stole a concurrent with tha ig else at play at the level. Folks i feel i cant stop doing the criminology of the islamic contracted. The polic weve seen, for example, people over the ultimate■8 insiders, wo is the definition of the self, if not the self. That polis continues thes the bs of acceptable political space and iran has contracted. Was there a story of even competition . I would fly for the audience that for the other electoral process, you symbol of experts, former president was sq well as to make of his former ministers. What does that say . As well as of course the fac this dynasty that in many institutions even think so many distinguished Wilson Center events over the years a member sitting in the audience folks like an an idea of the dynastic power they had. They are essentially all of this is khamenei trying to engineer among the elite of whats left of the elite . Is anything else at play . Holly mitch in succession. Lyd Something Else which is this notion that one can read about and then kind of wonder how much of this is real, how much of this isyp notion of purification, right, a purification of revolutionary that the Supreme Leader has a letter to the last couple of years, other senior kind of irgc guys have mentioned. And youre about as well when many speak to people who are based in tehran where over the past few years we talk about parliament can we talk about the civilservice bureaucracy levels of bringing in people who in the past would a bit of a more of true believer, not appointed necessary based on qualifications but on thing. You see that, the flipside of that with these berries Corruption Cases and mismanagement that you see time. But i think the point about the assembly is well taken. Rouhani who was not allowed to of experts which is the 88 person body, should say 88 men body that is irresponsible clerical body. Clerical body. I mean, we do need to narrow it any further but summerlike rouhani is not, could i really be considered anything but loyal opposition within the system. This is a m not even is a veteran of the nasa ns could establishment. Hes a twotime president. He has been involved in all of the national decisionmaking circles over the past 30 odd years. And, but even that is perceived as too much of a wildcard at this stage. And you you know i think pat is that is where the system believes that it is, which is under siege from multiple vectors from below, from abroad. I mean, it sounds fantastical, but there are people in the system who genuinely believe that 2022 protest were a foreign instigated pt. That. Now again, it seems remarkable western allies, western media, a selection of human rights activists would all come together to concoct this grand plan. Let it also, if you believe that, it also takes you to very risky conclusions, which is not actually what is driving the 2017 protests or economic grievances or the the 20189 protest sparked again by economic discontent but became very strong and they can■ become 2022 was not over social discontent but quickly manifested as at the system anger. But rather its a foreign plot, wedu right . And so this combination of paranoia and overconfidence that you have at the same time. And as part of that you have this shrinking of the circle to all but the most dogmati and idy pure, all but the most conservative elements of the system that includes raisi ampulla been vetted and approved as experts, that includes embers of parliament. And succession obviously being part of that. That contraction and that preference for loyalty and zeal, is looking for someone from iray with the University System there told me of this phrase that was used in the 80s during the cultural revolut when they were purging old professors and trend established a new generation of academic elites. I just with a stint at your speaking, remind me of this so its your righteousness, not your competence that matters. Nothing made better define how khamenei is moving his Musical Chairs then who is most righteous. Its not his cover, not the managerial class, not the conservative pragmatists like the jcpoa, it is this righteousness. It is who isost loyal. What holley, does that mean that nixon Islamic Republic is almost certainly going to be faced with a crisis, domestic, foreign, regional, jealous people, righteous people not competent people will botch it . Or is this odd cocktail ofhd paranoia and hyperbolic or paranoia strength enough to kind of allow them to muddle along . Well, i well, i mean, e been muddling along. They survived u. S. Impose sanctions under the top ■ adminiration. They survived the coronavirus just by having the largest they survived the biggest threat to the regime 40 some year history which was the uprising. I like to say that still ongoing. So, i mean, so far there been winging it, you highlighted a good point. This is probably the most incompetent administration the raisi government in in able to amble along. I think part of it is a sense of arrogance. They have two u. N. Security permanent members backing them, russia and china. They have managed to build ties with its arab neighbors in the persian gulf. Have managed to ss these massive protests for the time being. And so when y look at i i s him or less on the Foreign Policy front they are projecting strength but when you look domestically,es, they cshed the protest for the time being, but it think its inevitable that these protests will yes, there is like a sense ofm. Hopeless was on the ground. You are saying this like plight of iranians, like a flight of arenas and are trying t■u leave the country because they feel the situation has become so dire and hopeless that the literacy have is to leave. Brain drain historic is been a problem in the country but it dont think the fight against the regime is over. I think like a talk a lot about gen z in my work, the 80s generation and the ranson cito have actually a word for i really put my faith in this generation of iranians, to move the needle in the country the way their parents and the grandparents happened. Which is going back to the issue on the ground. Domestically its not just the people are just content with mismanagement and corruption and repression. The state of the economy is in the fireplace. The environment, Climate Change is a big issue. I wouldnt be surprised if use s from places like something that iranians analyst within the country are worried and predicting. And so until they deal with these big issues domestically, i think the regime is going to be more so paranoid and already is come just at what naysan saint and to do genuinely believe the west is keen oneg talk about rog discolored. And i are gse affiliated account atosted this like advertisement basically an ad the antirouhani and it was basically suggesting that all of irems were rouhani, the economy, corruption, the failure of the jake g that the jcpoa. The protests. When this theater came was disqt usually showed they really want to cast blame on those people that are not the most loyal tote people cannot be trusted. And again in the context of the jcpoa a lot of these hardline figures really thought the jcpoa was a threat to the Islamic Republic because if you had a nuclear deal and sanctions relief that myth western busiss come through. That meant iranians would get to have a taste of what its like to have these western opportunities to an extent, and that meant that that iranians would start asking for more. The situation in the country would be better arguably and so they would ask more from the government. Thats why they celebrate when the jcpoa was stillapn uata witp administration. Part of it had a paper version of the jcpoa and they set on fire and were chanting in to them these are threats to the clerical establishment. I mean, polite disagreements, cash and sanctions relief is a major threat to us enhance of the clerical establishment that we willree there. But it do what you guys to make a slightly more conversation now, and correct me in a view i have of this movement a cycle of boom and bust cycle of elections and protester in particular there is an analogy khamenei is fond of saying. Revolution. The train has minicars. And as the train is speeding or approaching toward its destination, these cars are cut. I cant help but think about is different movement over time. In the 1990s and the first front of the election for president , University Students used to say clearly that didnt happen. I believe the election was a shock. In the system begin to insulate itself against the shocks. The 2004 hardline consolidation, the, the 2005 bring forth, albeit under secondround, the pressure getss en p contested that, wasnt the first of people and event claimed there was a stolen election. All of these had an expiration date. Rouhani seems have had an expiration date. The regime seems to be in my view contends with that lf trair because its allowing to approach its destination even further. Khamenei is 84, 85, think about succession to you both hit that on your comics. Comments. These things slow down history. If hes talking in the world of zeal ofhtt anyone with an independent power base. He doesnt know anyone who will even seen some kind of flirtation with the west. ■■ didnt we all just kind of entertaining them in all these years by carrying a bit about too much these numbers and carry a bit too much of this faction, hey could raise to entertain us, jcpoa and Everything Else . Or was this not predestinate to move in this culture hardline direction from the beginning . I should express a biased. Im a historian so im trained not to see anything as predetermined by to see events and try to look at them in their own time and in the own context. A a structural agency is most important. Exactly. So three kind of comment based on that and ejection. One is, and i mentioned ten year swing of5lm but its actually much longer than that. You can look at the pendulum swing from ahmadinejad, to rouhani to■j racy. Its almost like every time center of the pendulum keeps moving further to the right, right . Like rouhani is not and even raisi is not that it is a pendulum, you used the word cycle. We dont know at this point if this is now the consolidated meeting term vision or if there is 2025, 2027 come if we can look at and predict another cycle back. At this point looksf a default a swing of the pendulum but at some point looks like they just want to hold the pendulum of fall and is and what it is. Again partially perhaps for succession, but two further asterisks to that. One is that even under the circumstances that were all discussing and think we are all in broad agreement that this current government is well consolidated from the most dogmatic and most conservative element of the iranian political staffs to come up is the judiciary, the executive of the Supreme Leaders office, you can look at and say even under rouhani it was shades of gray, now it is■m me shades of black. That being said, that isnt to take away that they all agree with each other or indeed that they like each other on a weve already seen khamenei himself doing his impersonation of the c■cra fighting. Even now before weve even gotten to the things like the chairmanship of the elections, youve already seen knives out between what are now the traditional conservatives and the ultraconservatives that have done well. Thats one asterisk. The other asterisk ily put emphasis on whats missing from this picture, which is any of it of combativeness, any element of political variation even within the spectrum. What the system is looking at is yes, the would love to 60 . Translator yesterday like that 70 turnout. But it seems like the way that, they knew thisne, they knew the elections were going to be low. For system that puts on so much emphasis over this turnoutwell,g competitiveness, results in greater interest, great interest leads to greatthats a fairly sd formula. They chose not to do that. They didnt do that under raisi election and they didnt do that now. That right now is on holding that 40 who did turn out. Again like i said, that figureo first its an official figure, second it not inclusi of the ballots that were discontinued, but thirdly, weve always seen turnout in rural areas provinces fare much better than the Political Centers like the main cities. M ideations nextgeneration in the hope that they can expand. Thet matter how much representative or client, it is to scrape the court across. Ironically the defense staff, the ministry of defense, hh turnout by deterrence and shield against foreign pressure so its s left is just the function or impression or holding the hardline case and dragging the system. I will clip 2002. He said 40 Voter Participation they do not care and back trust and in here we have this. They dont care what the International Community and for them because back to securing that stability and there is a divide and talking about this engineered electionple are voting but there is a problem with the system here and its an issue across the board and those ■not supporting the hardline dominated three branches of government being out again says and saying we continue this trend, use more than we already have. I remember years ago months after that i keep going back to that because you look at the pres been in protest december 2017 and they take off their job in september of 2022 so going back to then president saying on the ground there going to bed so there is this sense experts putting them path of the Islamic Republic when and how it will happen, the Million Dollar question people arguably push for but youre getting more and that direction and crisis. With that, he said animal get may be conducive here. In on the way to o question, there is protest devolved over years in the turnout is one trendline among many. The future Trump Administration and i think its a mor forcefu approach from my perspective would be elective and useful. Thewm timeline that it might be more appealing to a different audience so what you think is the pathway here there is betwey that they are more performative books is this opportunity for the rest that exist between the u. S. Government or is it counterproductive . The trendline is the appropriate role . Its funny listening to the last panel become a and impression that is confident and doing quite wel key west interest in developing relations u. S. Adversary and us. I dont think these thingre contradictory and i reference this at the same time possible to look at something and post opportunity during the Previous Panel the speaker has said we tried a little bit of■h everything on ts program. We also tried many thingspw buta case study will have to look at november scenario we have protest tomorrow or the next week ats possible because the major rounds five or six years and in both cases then the human rights position. Naming and ability and finding mission. One place to start is not to think of it in terms of this engagement and whatever mode that means. And we figure o from trt what would or would not have been. I think a lot of people on this. Interest in the region would not be that much different, this speech in may of 2018 and in that sense, the interest is roughly the same,e doot want to see it and fundamentally we want iranians to have the right perspective voices heard andconomy function to a reasonable degree. We have responses weve points f support we seen in the course of this process interesting ideas trying to come out. The iranian government them out saying how dare you do . Is a u. S. Sanction the general elections was trying to in ordeg court defenders and things like other concerns we see if you have family you want to get money to them, how do you do wi . Is a persontoperson kind of thing talk about in ter of mechanism is the same thing that right now is very difficult. Those are one, two and three straightforward practicalhings that would■b be a practical isse because they tried to fix a problem on the groundose of us a more pressure based approach on something wrong the concern is this an onramp encouraging more books it doesnt happen i rgc has pathways based on not one but many strands. Even on the fundamentals they are greedy mentation, a risk tolerance and time horizons success, how come sanction court the sanctions were successful i u at it 2013. In different little capit. I want to unpack that. The administration is continuing maximum pressure policy and everything but name. ■ and it 2. 0 because they hope they will put pressure and it is impossible and whether the Trump Administration they are so i dont think they care about the iranian people. In the iranian people want. And they would be more on that front. Two unpack a bit what we saw during this protest the wants and n o people before the iranians were into camps th or the regime change. The regime change was smaller than it is today■w but for the first time you saw a lot of the diaspora in mass numbers in d. C. And■ l. A. Berlin about 80 to 100,000 october 2022 mobilized the pe iran so they were pushing for a lot of those talking points they wanted the regime gone and europe called for the resignation of the i rgc in the uk and european union. He really saw the gap that divides between inside and outside and it gets very small so that was something very noteworthy. If the protest was to pop up now, i would say that would be the one calling congress learning past lessons to put more pressure on talking about members ofon participate in eles but they didnt realize the power they could push their members of congress in so they are learning a lot and you will see a lot more pressure regardless of foods especially not coming off again which is what i would argue. Thank you for your insights and comments and wisdom. I think we have a little bit of not. T over here and then over there. You mentioned the regime space of 20, 25 or whatever itf this program . They support o proter they want weaponization, one of the views on that . Im here at the Wilson Center. My clear the way they want, why did they■s allow burnout we know allowing this figure, why did they allow this . They could have said. You may take it as you which, with the nuclear desires are and about the numbers. In terms of tr programs the cylinder in 2006 and it was their inherent right and now its about 20 years of sanctions of Irans Nuclear a hold generation impacted by Irans Nuclear program. You talk to a lot of iranians, they are not chancing it out there. So you see more of that sense in the west on its commitment for the Trump Administration withdrew despite iran violating and getting a sense going in that direction. So they wouldno deal with the sanctions and it doesnt go and ride with what i said elier. In the frustrations of the clerical establishment im sure we will recall, the first the is they began to breach restrictions in 2019 and i was r pressure. The 26th seven of this limitation and stockpile. ■ there was being too modest but those incremental. If you go back to 2013 the deal was signed in the parliament de. In december of 2020, dominated parliament and gods wish at thendnd it was percolating for several months over the objections of his team quickly approved by parliament and Guardian Council. And it was . And the agents of iraq and a few days so whether or not they believed i read shoul t an, it was never their intention against Nuclear Weapon but certainly a matter of minimum leverage, they are far more assertive and you debate whether that is usefulec passed, clearle sanctions have not been lifted. The turnout rate, momentarily true and as mentioned, theres a lot of push from activist from actors in the diaspora that and turnout is only one and a half 2 than what was 2020 so within the cone of failure and if you listen the official, its a great outcome. 21 . For a system that puts emphasis on the republic major is no definition a strong turnout and there is a mixed record getting turnout figures that are not seen including in 2009. A focus on diplomatic engagement. I wont keeou longer. Thank you for your time and attention. Thank you and i also want to thank you for moderating this think all the support on the work we do and talking about the publication cosponsors with u. S. It, thank you for your engagement and we will continue at future events. 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