Public service as long as these all other Television Providers giving your front row seat to democracy. Now to a discussion on Global Trends in the Energy Market including Energy Consumption and the state of electric vehicles with remarks from the Energy Information administration. It is hosted by the center for strategic and International Studies and lasts about an hour. [inaudible conversations] [inaudible conversations] welcome to todays launch event for the International Energy outlook. Im the director of the energy program, joseph majkut. I cant tell you how excited i am. On a biannual basis, this is a benchmark, not just the United States and the world considering plans for our energy future. Colleagues it is getting harder every year when you think about that, the challenges of feeding our energy needs. Providing insight. In particular, one of the things we will here today, they are not meant to be forecast, scenarios that help us understand how they come about. Im looking forward to our discussion. Before we get into a formal program for those of you in the room, theres an emergence, an alarm goes off, please call the instruction to the staff member, rallying points in that direction in the front. So thank you for joining us. If you are watching live there should be questions on the event page, later in the program. We are going to see the new ipo this morning from Joseph Decarolis and his colleague, angelina larose. We will have a few minutes to talk about how policymakers and industry people and Civil Society looks at the ipo and where it fits. Constellation of energy forecasts that we have available to us. Thank you for joining us, if you would like to come up. All right. Good morning, every one. It is an honor to kick off our presentation of the International Energy outlook for 2023, i want to give huge thanks to the ei staff. There is an honest effort going into into the analysis, i want to thank them, i want to thank joseph and csis staff are hosting this event. I want to talk about what we do. We are the energy informati administration and the stattical department and the department of energy. Among otr things this means we are tested with unique authory to collect energy data from us industry. Thatata we publish is used by a lot of stakeholder one of the things we do is use that data internally to inform our model projections. We view our data as aritical source of information in the United States. The other thing is bylaw, all of our products are independent of approval by any other officer or member of the Us Government and we prize that independence. Very important to us. This particular product, the International Energy outlook is forbes longterm trend and Energy Supply and demand around the world. What is new in this years report. You will see a similar look and feel, youre going to see improvements in the narrative. I have a background in modeling myself and it is important analysts and modelers beble to explain the model rests and translate them into realworld context and the only way to do that is to focus on the narrative so there is, youre going to e technical notes that appear as light be boxes in the narrative, that an oppouny to take a deeper technical dive on particular subjects for readers who might be interestedo we have got three technical notes focused on electric vehicle prections, representation of storage and eltrity sector and representation of global refineries we also emphasized the range of results around the cases that we model similar to the ae oh. We are also introducing cases that focus on examining capital costs associated with 0 Carbon Technologies and made several improvements to the modeling work itself. We have no analysis regions can we have 16 regions for better geographic alignment. We have a brandnew oil and natural gas supply module that has been incorporated into our modeling framework so you will see the results from that. We increased the resolution of electricity models so we now model Electricity Supply and demand across 288 separate time slices and that is important to model wind, solar and battery dispatch. Finally, weve made several assumptions about the fullscale invasion of ukraine so we will have a whole appendix where we go sector by sector and talk about the assumptions we made and how it informed our analysis. I want to talk about the cases that we model, the first thing we want to point out is we only model current laws and regulations, and we frze consideration of current laws 2,023, this is looking at of particular the results we present our from our annual will be the same as those policy functions were frozen in november of 2,022. These assumptions about policy carry through all the cases that we model. Getting onto the specific cases we have our reference case. And a reference case, we assume Global Annual gdp grows at 2. 6 annually. We assume the price of brent crude starts at one hundred 2 a barrel, it varies a bit and ends up close to 102 a barrel again in 2050. We also assume there are reductions in the cost of 0 Carbon Technology and i should mention those technologies are wind, solar, batteries, and cost reductions up to 20 in the reference case and the way we handle this is through technololearning. Every time the cy of one of those technologies s theres a reduction in costs. The second set of cases focus on Economic Growth. In the low we assume the annual gdp growth is 1. 8 and the high case is 3. 4 and i will say these macro cases have a big impact on the results. When you have high macro growth that leaves behind demand and that requires higher supplies of energy and with lower macro growth it means lowered demand and less Energy Supplies than required. Next we have oil price trajectories, these are formulated outside the model framework, in the lowercase we assume brent crude reach 38 a barrel in 2050 and in the high case reach 100 50 in 2050. The 0 Carbon Technology cost assumptions is new to this ipo and in this case wlo what cost waeved for each of the tecolies in 2050 and in the reference case we look at the trajectory the texas 40 below that cost. In the high case we assume constant cost through the projection horizon. These are the highlights from this years report. The first is increasing population and income offset the effes of declining energy, and providing you more details in a moment on that. The second is the shift to renebles to meet growing electricity demand is driven by resources, Technology Costs and policy and Energy Security concerns, transition from fossil fuels in some countries although they increase that to others. Im going to give some high level of use of that and angelina will add additional details. There are some things i want you to keep in mind. It looks like okay. Things i want you to keep in mind as you look at these results. When we model these cases, we deliberately restrictive approach in the ie oh, the way i characterize these cases is they are plausible but sober and here are the assumptions we make. We only account for current policies and we are looking at policies that are legally enforceable. We dont model aspirations or targets unless there is a legally enforceable policy that backs it up. Second, we look at evolutionary rates of technological change based on recent history and third, we dont consider sweeping changes and Consumer Preferences or major geopolitical events that could produce durable change and shift the trajectory of the system. It is certainly possible those things could happen. It is entirely possible we can get new policies, there could be unforeseen geopolitical events or Technology Breakthroughs we dont model and that is exactly why you should not think of the ie oh as a forecast. We are trying to do Something Different here. What we are doing is providing a set of policy neutral baselines that focus on the current trajectory of the Energy System and i think that provides a useful point for decisionmakers against which they can judge future action and developments. Okay. So this brings us to our first set of results. Across most of the cases we find Energy Related emissions continue to rise through 2050 under current laws. So again, we have a regional model, 16 regions, showing the resultaggregated to the global scale. To orient you the ne represents the reference case and the gy bands around the reference case show the full range across all the cases that we model so moving left to right, we have global gross thomistic product which is you can tl is growing very rapidly. In the middle we have primary energy usage. You can see an upward trend and to the right we have Energy Related to co2 emissions. In each of these three panels, those gray bands are d to the macro cases so they are setting bounds on each of these. One thing that is interesting, as you look left or right you notice the slope of the cone keeps decreasing so gdp is growing fastest, primary energy and finally Energy Related co2 has the least slope so to get some more insight we can further break those 3 panels into four panels and some might immediately recognize this as attorney and identity. Moving left to right weav global population. Notice there is no gray band cause we assume one population projection that carries through all the cases that were modeling. Next, we have gdp per capita which you can take to be a rough measure of per capita annual income. Next we have Energy Intensity which is a measure of energy per dollar gdp, finally Carbon Intensity which is the amount of Carbon Emissions you get per un of energy. The uncertaint aunds in the two middle panels being set by the high and low macro cases and for Carbon Intensity it is being set by the 0 Carbon Technology cost cases. If you take the product of the first terms, you get total global Energy Consumption. If you take the product of the four terms which is the way the chi identity is designed you to get total get total global co2 emissions. And you can see clearly that in the first two panels population of gdp per capita, they are increasing at a pretty fast rate and this makes sense. There s more people and the tend to demand goods and seic but you see at the same time, we are getting less energy per dollar in the economy soney intensity is declining and for every unit of energy we consume we are emitting less Carbon Emissions and that brings us to the insight on the title, the upward pressures of population gdp outweighed the downward pressures we see from reduced energy, Carbon Intensity over time. We can disaggregate further, this is just looking at gdp growth rates by region in the model. Theres 16 regions. We have a high Income Countries on the left, the low Income Countries on the right and i will just point out that india has the highest average gdp growth rate but it varies quite a lot by region. As a result of the global sale, theres all of this detail under the surface. We can also look at total energy, disaggregate that a little bit. Here we are looking at fossil fuels versus nonfossil fuels and what we find is increasing demand in current policies drive steady growth in fossil energy but a even faster growth in nonfossil sources. So you can see the reference case the bands represent, the range across the cases with fossil which is the black and gray, it starts at 505 quads in 2,022 and grows from one to 40 depending on the case and with nonfossil, this would include all the renewables in nuclear, we started one hundred 33 quads but that grows from 70 to 125 by 2050 so wind and solar in particular are growing at a remarkably fast rate and you see that by the distinct slope associated with the blue line. We can again break it down even a little bit further here, so we are looking at fossil versus nonfossil but weve broken that down to specific fuel types. You see the stacked bar for 2,022 representing the fossil sources, the gray outline represents all the nonfossil resources. Youve got 2,022 to the left at all the other bars represent a snapshot across cases in 20 so you can see how each of these fuelipes is changing over time. Generally what we find is fossil fuels hold onttheir chair through time but renewables really pick up and most of that renewable irrelevant is taking place in the electricity sector. We find in the electricity sector, renewables plus nuclear combined represent 55 to 65 of global Electricity Supply in 2050 across the cases. Obviously theres a lot going on here at the regional level, regional patterns we are not showing here and that will depend on prevailing policy, trade patterns and the cost of local resources. With that i will go back to the highlights and turn it over to our assistant administrator. I will keep on with the trend of breaking things down, with 3 highlights. I encourage you all to take a deeper dive into this event where we have data and analysis but starting with the first one about increasing population and income driving the group and consumption and Energy Related initiatives despite carbon intensities. What the slide is showing his Energy Consumption by sector. As joe oriented to you, this is a reference case with a range of the area, the light colored area represents a range of production from our side cases. Energy consumption grew across all sectors through 2050 and you can see on this slide the industrial sector in green shows manufacturing, refining and other sectors, the largest share of Energy Consumption and also the largest share of growth through 2015. The industrial sector has the widest range of consumption across cases due to the broad range of industrial growth assumptions across our cases and macroeconomic drivers. The highest growth we see in the industrial sector comes from High Economic growth cases reaching a growth rate of 1. 7 per year but even in low Economic Growth cases, it is looking at liquid consumption across cases in sectors. Similar to the west chart, total energy across all fuels, liquid consumption rises through 2050. The fastest growth in liquid consumption comes from the industrial sector. Petroleum is used as feedstock in Industries Like chemical production and agricultural equipment. Transportation maintained its largest share of liquid consumption. Growth is tempered by shift towards electric vehicles. Overall, in this consumption, driven by growth in industrial and transportation. Look at the industrial consumption. Of this slide is focusing on consumption in china and india. In the industrial sector, we see declining Energy Intensity. At a regional level those are two prevailing drivers of Energy Consumption in the industrial sector. Durial growth outputs our measure of Economic Activity and Energy Efficiency or Energy Intensity. We see different trajectories in china and india. In china, some cases consumption is decni. Comped to india with growth in all the cases. And china, growth output after 2024 combined with significant Energy Efficiency slows and decreases industrial Energy Consumption. In particular china is projected to increase its production with significant Energy Intensity. And in the other growth in industrial growth output which tripled in most cases, even quintupled in the High Economic growth case is the main driver of that sector of increase in india. India sees growth, primary metals, chemicals and others. There is a lot to unpack on this slide. On the left is a graph attached to travel demand in flux regions and passenger travel, indexed to 2025 showing this index to 2025, only projects travel demand through the return to prepandemic levels. Looking at theeft you see th the overall travel demand is growing, travel demand is hily sensitive to cnges in disposable income per capita as well as deployment and several interesting findings at the regional level. Much of this growth in travel demand is concentrated in india where both disposable incomes and employment is grown significantly over the projection period. Regions of slower Income Growth with lower absolute income per capita, and and in income and employment from western europe and japan, per capita travel, doubles in the High Economic growth case. Turning to the graph, travel demand for less efficient modes transportation, air travel rose in regionasncomes increase. Rising income enables travelers to shi to efficient modes of transportation, to less efficient modes. Uc this particularly in china and other specific regions. We have faster growth and the first two panels and Slower Growth invested in two and three wheelers. Aircraft travel which is sensitive to changes in incomes noticeably increasing across all regions and regions with lower Income Growth like africa you see in the yellow and other regions, part of the green, use of two or three wheelers compared with that. Efficiency improvements in each of these technologies offset a significant portion of Energy Consumption for travel demand growth and shifting toward less efficient transportation. Okay. My next slide. Here we go. Just as you imagined, i am sure. This slide is looking at the shared electric vehicles, in electric vehicles. Leads to growth in these vehicles to grow from 1. 4 billion in 2022 by 2015. Within the vehicles, we see a technological shift in internal Combustion Engines to electric vehicles. Globally evs count to 54 of new vehicle sales by 2050 across cases of protection and continued increase in the adoption, leads to a peak in the global fleet of the internal Combustion Engine light duty vehicles from 202,722,033 in all cases. Looking at the ev adoption battery electric vehicles which you see in blue can a ball lysed plug in hybrid electric vehicles in yellow particularly early in the Production Period and that makes sense as hybrids make more sense in the interim, battery electrics are more competitive. China and europe, the adoption of electric vehicles is largely policy driven. In india and japan largely based on economics, the wider range of results. Transportation, the building sector shows a lot of interesting stories at the regional level. This is showing delivered energy csumption per capita in india. India with significant g growth and population increase exemplifies the relationship between energy use, income, and Service Sector growth, disposable income and expding Service Sector, significant increase in overall buildings engyse which tripled by 2,050 relative to 2,022 across se electrification on the building stock grew electricity consumption more than any Energy Source the residential and commercial sector. That leads to the second highlight relating to the shift of two renewables and Global Energy demand. This is showing the change in electricity capacity compared to 2,022 levels across cas. To meet increased global electricity demand, Power Capacity increases reaching a total of 1. 52 two timewhat was in 2022 x 2050. Across cases, 4600, to 9200 gigawatts of gerating Capacity Installed by 2,050 which edominately solar, wind or storage which you see in yellow, green and purple so far. 20222050, 0 Carbon Technology makes up 81 to 91 of global generating capacity. What this slide is showing his Electricity Generation biofuel. Given the capacity build i just showed you, solar and wind show the higher generatn growth. The last slide showehanges capacity for 2022 levels, existing cl d natural gas power plants continue to operate. In 2,022 coal, natural gas and look with fuel combined constite more than half the worlds generation capacity. By 2050 the share from these fuels for Power Generation decreased to 27 to 38 of the worlds generating capacity. It is a noticeable shift. It dlis in most of the cases we model. Natural gas is flat or rising. Percentage growth is nothing compared to what we are seeing in solar and wind but gas and coal remain stable part of the generation mix. That brings us to our last highlight related to the role that Energy Security has in the transition from fossil fuels. This sli is showing electricity capacity in break and broken by solar and Renewable Technologies and other technologies. Across a large mority of regions 0 Carbon Technologies increase through 22 2050 unr current policy. There is regional variation the timing of that growth. Western europe and indias growth which you see in the first two panels and 0 carbon capacity is projected to accompany a flat declining change in fossil fuels. China and africa see growth in 0 carbon and ssbased technology. In western europe Energy Security considerations vong the use of available reurces like wind and solar increased installation and plan to build these tecologies earlier in the Production Period. In india, 0 Carbon Technology is seen after 2030 heavy influenced by assumptions of onomic growth. In china, coalfired generation makes up 62 of Electricity Generation in 2022 and decrseby 10 throughout the Production Period in allas except Carbon Technology case and low Economic Growth case. Local resources are key in the asiapacific region where electricity demand growth is the most rapid and local call is cheap and abundant. Africa see significant increases in installation of 0 Carbon Technology over the projection accompanied by increasing share of fossil fuels. As the region takes advantage of locally available fossil fuel resources in the absence of uniform policies. One fossil fuel in particular, natural gas, is an important part in electors he generation in several regions of the world in projections for 2,050. The power sector and its continuing need for natural gas is a key component of the global trade dynamic. Which is seen on the next slide. This slide is showing natural gas trade, it represents natural gas imports below the zero axes in natural gas exports. Notable on the slide is the range of imports from asia pacific and the range of net exports out of the middle east. These differences are driven by macroeconomic assumptions, total Global Demand for natural gas, different significant it differs significantly from the higher economic case. It grows to in the reference case a grossed over 2140 tcf in the High Economic growth case. Most of the event occurs in china or consumption rise across all sectors particularly electric power sectors in later years. India also draw significant natural gas import growth in asiapacific region because of the growth in the industrial sector. So was reaching for an out of cost efficient resource import natural gas in areasy that has the cheapest resources. As mentioned earlier, eieio uses our most recent annual outlook for theok u. S. Projections. So u. S. Which is clearly part of the north american grouping in this graph supplies what we published in the march. Although north americas a secondlargest source of supply on a net basis from all the regionst got it only has a limited growth and supply between the High Economic growth case is published in our annual Energy Outlook. In the macro case and the limited growth from russia, the middle east national gas of plastic increases significantly higher Economic Growth cases. So that leads to i i will leas with a few highlights. I want to thank you all for your attention to thanks to csis are hosting this event and thank all our analysts and modelers for all the work in making this the best i. E. Oh yet. Thank you. [applause] as a get settled please let me think angelina for really helpful description. I said at the beginning of this, this document tells the story. The really fundamental and qualitative work that comes with modeling all these different sectors of the economy call these different regions, joe, thank you so much for coming today. Colleagues online or here in the room what use the event page to offer a question, happy to incorporate those on a rolling basis. I want to start with your early message. This is not a projection. Wait, this is not a forecast that its a set of projections. In particular eia has always had a practice of saying the big Case Scenario is those laws that are onre the books today. Which is separate from the ambitions of the governments around the world related to Economic Growth, you know, the kind of like the convolution of the vehicle fleet or Greenhouse Gas emissions. When i look at the results i say, oh, man, this is kind of an Energy Edition on Energy Transmission scenario. Is that the right take away and how do you guide or recommend to globe of the Global Public policymakers look at the scenario that you have or trip the outcome of the scenarios that eia has crafted . Put it that we. Great question. I think it always comes back to the context got anytime you looking at modeling exercise or an outlook its very important to understand what were the assumption the way into it, and were taking a very particular approach year where we are assuming a strict interpretation oft current policy where again where assuming evolutionary rates of technological change, no major surprises, and so that informs the projections. The way got if i were to to make an analogy, if the global Energy System is as car, we are basically look at what happens when you shift it into cruise control, when we end up . We do explore some of the key sensitivities in the model two Different Cases but looking at it as a whole, thats the perspective we take. Over the weekend i was reading a lecture on the americanan scholar. Theres a great line about its the duty of the scholar to show facts and the appearances. Which facts or come out of this i. E. Oh that you think are important for like the general Public Policymakers to understand. The biggest thing is we all, we think the energy all bring ourou perspectives to our own le experience, when were interpreting the news receive whats going on. With an exercise like this its important, you have to step to its a very careful exercise to look across the world and to see whats happening. Sometimes i think in developed countries we forget about how Much Development is actually takingpm place. So i think for me one of the Key Takeaways is as governments explore carbon futures, just know that theres this backdrop of continued development and thats putting pressure on energy demand, and thats got that informs our projections. So we are seeing sort of steady or increased use of fossil fuels, but also rapid growth of renewable energy. I think the clean energy story is taking place in electricity sector. Its largely beingng driven by solar and wind. And then there are other groups that look at global forecasts. I dont want to get into like a modeling debate, but help us understand. Even if you take one of the things i cannot took from this presentation as well as our conversations in advance of todays event, the sort of the character of the energy Going Forward is changing rapidly in your errors as well. Theyre still this growing demand around the world for Energy Services because of the Cost Effective way. Help us understand, how do i understand if another modeling exercise, another set of projections will peak this decade, next decade, what differences are those what difference is that showing us . I think one thing to keep in mind is that you should expect to see big differences across outlooks. I cannot emphasize enough how much uncertainty there is that i think there is when you produce an outlook like this. We are entering a period at even higher expectation prefix notation should not be that you look across outlooks and see the same thing. When you seeutut differences ths healthy. As a modeler i think they converge to the same numbers. Going back and looking we have a long history we have done a lot of projections. Being a modeler requires humility. In all the outlooks it says the same. We have a problem. Which is to cross it looks is healthy. Just to give you an idea of what try some of those differences. Even if youre looking at another outlook and theres a snare that looks kind of similar to eia, you have to look at how was policy interpreted . Again, i go back to what we do, strict interpretation of existing policy thats legally enforceable. E. What do they assume about Economic Growth . What if it assume about Technology Innovations . What to the cost that was for renewables and other technologies look like . What do. You assume about technologies that might be on the horizon that highly uncertain . And also Consumer Preferences. Were larger doing Economic Modeling here but theres a big piece of this would even with existing policy we are incentivizing consumers, and a windows exactly how theyre going to respond. I want to touch on uncertainty it a couple ways. Theres a hard version of the question i want to ask, though like when i look at the various projections, right, andnd youe us this envelope, a shaded envelope. I look at that and i go i dont know if theres enough uncertainty. I dont know if thats a wise enough map in particular on the downside. Just like as an external yes. Maybe you can dive into an example, right . So uvs, cars, like rapid growth and 40 of the chinese auto market is so evs. The u. S. Is like five to 7 . Some people will tell you that some around 10 of penetration its the Tipping Point is in Consumer Preferences will shift rapidly toward evs. If that happened you might see a lot of less fossil fuel demand for transportation and unlike your lines on greenness gas emissions might have to go down a lot. Yes. How does thisth structure model that kind of got those dynamic . One thing want to acknowledge upfront is we do show those uncertainties. That is not the full scope of the uncertainty. There theres this wide unif things that can happen. We are very clear about how we approach it and what assumptions we make across the cases. What kind of taking, taking a narrow path through this pretty wide universe. Would be perfect to say like just as youre not making a forecast cup that is not probability . Correct. Absolutely. The bands are wider than that and its been somewhat you test. If i was trying to interpret our outlook in the context of others, think about looking at the projections all on the same chart and then you start, because given outlooks make different assumptions to use different models so you are exploring different parts of the future and the think thats a healthy exercise. Let me get teds though and i can we can talk about that and i learned a lot. I want to give a little bit of perspective so im going to cite some of the numbers that angelina already gave but i think they are both important to understand. First of all passenger travel demand is good increased by Something Like 65 over y 2050 across the cases. And thats because theres more people but also, but also the want to travel more miles as they gain wealth. Angelina also mention we are at right now were at about 1. 4 billion light duty vehicles on road. Thats going to grow to about 2 billion x 2050 in in most of our cases. You have to remember that with electriccs vehicles its not jut pure economics. Theres also Consumer Preferences and so with some representation of that in our model. Policy interpretation also matters a lot in terms of what you project going into future from wheret we are right now. And as angelina said what were finding is that evs are projected to make up about 3055 of global sales by 2050 but theres a lot of uncertaint uncertainty. Is it possible things can unfold in a wayib where we end up with our projections . Absolutely. Ill give you one example. We assume i can evolutionary rates of technology innovation. So we look very carefully at the prevailing cost of batteries. When look at how the cost of those lithiumion batteries is defined over time and we projected into the future. If theres a new battery chemistry some new breakthrough, all bets are off. Things can change. We think about modeling when youre doing some difficult because you are modeling Consumer Choices, right . Like i dont think we really know we know how to do that. What dynamics going to trying to assess like how do consumers weigh relative cost kurds, performance, social trends . In our National Energy modeling system which were used to produce or outlook we have more of a Consumer Choice model. We have simplified version in the model we used to produce the International Energy outlook. So its not a full Consumer Choice model but its also not just about cost. The four factors ago in and this is one of the technical notes. You got the cost of the vehicle. Theres a cost to drive it at that is also Model Availability like how many edy miles per out the relative to enter Combustion Engines and also fuel availability. So was people see the availability of more models and they see that theres more infrastructure payable to charge only fuel thatre more apt to mae the purchase. This is a standard methodology to look at all vehicle updates. I always wanted because ist just dont think of a car dealership as as a place to a rational decision. Lets may be, like i think its good to talk about the tax code but were running short time and people want to know about [inaudible] fossil production. But maybe like let me put the end different context. You have to make energy price cases, high and low. I didnt see big differences in the results but maybe thats in the top one. Can you help us understand what we learn from those two cases with respect to the global market, the role of the u. S. As a going producer and editor insights eia tells us is important for the policy conversation we have in washington . Sure. As far as oil divan goes, what we see is, so we are roughly, total dragnet iss around 99 Million Barrels per day. What we see is by 2050 again across the cases we model it Something Like very roughly ten40 increase in demand for liquids. The u. S. Piece of that, i can remember that the u. S. Results are fixed, what we had in annual Energy Outlook. What we found there is that we remain an net exporter of petroleum across all of the cases but theres a pretty wide variations is anywhere from half the main Barrels Per Day all the way up to nine. Okay. Let me ask you about the future of these exercises. Over the last or ipad the real honor of hosting a lot of people to look at to put together different forecast products, different projection products. How do we evolve these tools . From your academic background, you work on modeling a lot and im interested in talking about how we got how he think about the these tools to inform the Public Policy conversation to better understand the dynamics . So like what you think about his critical mineral challenges that are really important for the kind of uptick on solar and wind like in your modeling, had a think about making these results more transparent and available to the public or a policy maker so we get a better understanding of what these models and what these scenarios can teach us . I would love to hear your open thoughts on how we keep innovating, make sure were meeting the information needs in the model. Thats a great conchita question. How much time do we have . I just a few thoughts. The Energy System is in a great lack of pretty rapid change, and that creates a challenge as energy modelers. We need to t make sure our modes stay uptodate with what we see, what we see happening. Very quickly i will say that with modeling exercises that we do at eia, we try to be as transparent as possible. I do want to say that up front. Why, if you want to dig into what weve done, you can read the narrative. You can download the data tables. You can read all the documentation for all of the modules. You can request source code and wetland to make the source code publicly available under an opensource license. Theres still a lot of logistics go through over trying to be as transparent as it possibly can. So theres that. We are in a process of retooling our model. I announced earlier were taking a break on the annual Energy Outlook in 2024 so they can add some of the lowcarbon pathways need to be able to model. We willmo be doing that, but ona parallel track separate effort were also building a next generation model. I think the key is by talking with enteral and external staples, we really need modeling to be nimble and flexible. We need to be able to look at a wide range of scenarios and the considerations that we now need to bring to the model are increasing picky region Critical Minerals. Thats something were looking at. So i think go to Critical Minerals all of them are or if you want to prevent spread i mean, like what are you learning . I was it a quick answer is with Critical Minerals we are currently working with the u. S. A geologic survey. Theyve done a lot of work looking a supply chain from critical mineral so were collaborating with them. We view ourselves as experts int producing these energy projections, they understand the supply chains that are so were collaboratively to figure out how we can build critical mineral supply into our models. I would say that like trying to build those supply chains into a modeling framework would be part of this effort to build a new next generation model. Do we have enough information . The eia is the information keeper for oil and Gas Production in the u. S. Used a Statistical Agency to emit. We dont have an analog on the mineral side. These insert meaningful anaa way that eia seems to be doing on the oil and gas site . It something that evaluate. My sense is you always work with the data that you have. If it helps to highlight where there could be particularly important risk to consider, then thats valuable. I think where to look at it more carefully as we build. This is question the council on live action is interesting. The question is about learning. When you embark on the ieo every year or embarking on the ae oh, we knew the tools we have to how to make sure youre learning from past excesses and past failure . Thats a good question. I mean, we are in contact with stakeholders. We often have workshops with the next generation modeling we are actually about to have a series of engagement with external stakeholders so we can learn from them. We also do my bench bench work. We go back and look and see how we did. And we are inn the process of trying to expand that work ourselves. I personally tried to go back and look across past projections and see whatoj did we get right and what did we get wrong and how can that inform our projections moving forward. Do you see this as a process that can get formalized . Theres lots of fancy modeling tools that allow us to really taken quantitative information or change projections. Yes. Based on what we learnedon about overtime. Do you think that something you can utilize . Absolutely. One of the things we did in the annual Energy Outlook was we had uncertainty cones. So you can come up with different projection by changing couplet assumptions in your model what the cones do is they look at the difference between what was in the reference case and what actually happened and said well, you know, here are the heirs got you get a distribution use to drive a con that sayson you may im in that believe our reference caseli but if you look at past differences got this is where things could head. So thats just one example but theres a lot of different ways that you can formalize that, the consideration of that. And as you think about putting dissenters together, as you think about the numerous attempts tobo make an as to make a a dont know whether iy this, but i give you access to the source code and you get to learn one thing with like absolute precision and accuracy to them for making better projections for our energy future, what would it be . I get access to the reallife . We give you access. To the matrix . Yes. I think the biggest challenge we face is got its the human behavioral piece of it, right . We can characterize cost data and thats uncertain but i think we dont have a good sense for what, you know, as we offer novel technologies, wilkinson was taken up . How do personal preferences influence political movements . You know, like how does all of that aggregate up and away that informs whether were going to come would we end up with new policy . Do consumers prefer these two technologies . Thats a really huge challenge that we start with as model maker. We do the very best we can with the data we have. We dont have a good understanding of how human beings are going to respond to external events, to new technologies and so forth. I kind of agree. One thing ive been thinking a lot about here is theres all this new Tech Innovation thats going to come from the result of the bipartisan infrastructural, the ira here how quickly does that diffuse around the world, and its an economics question, a policy question,no a social question. This is a huge uncertainty around the question absolutely and that brings it back to the earlier point that thats why its important to, we shouldnt expect his outlooks sort of conforming to the same cost the same results because there is all this uncertainty. We all make different assumptions so you get this array of outcomes. We all get surprised by certain things, right . Right. Okay. We are running up against our time window. I just want to say, like we are very, very pleased you talked about this today. Its an interesting cut in some parts provocative set of results that you have found. I think its going to really inform the conversation not just here in washington but around the world, so thank you to you joe and angelina. And also those who are doing online dont know but many of the eia subject Matter Expert analysts have come today for what is unfortunately the lamest party that i can possibly imagine. But you know i am pleased to extend appreciation and hard work and your dedication as a public servant. Thank you all. [applause] and i wish you well. Everybody to ensure in person as well as online, colleagues, we are signing off and hope to see you next time youre at csis. [applause] he radio and Television Correspondents association is hostingts annual dinner this evening to award travel is for the coverage of the with Six Committee investigation. And on the ground reporting of e russian invasion of ukraine. The event will also inclu entertainment from comedian tyler fisher. Watch the dinner livetaing at 7 30 p. M. Eastern on the free cspan now video app or online at cspan. Org. A healthy democracy doesnt just look like this. It looks like this where americans can see democracy at work, where citizens are truly inform. Informed. A republic thrives. Did inform straight from the source on cspan. Unfiltered, unbiased, word r word. From the Nations Capital to wherever you are. Because the opinion that matters the most is your own. This is what democracy looks like. Cspan, powered by cable. And now 2024 republican president ial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy campaigning a a brewery in iowa. He talks about the isrlhamas and russiaukraine wars and his views on what he calls the welcom industrial complex. He also answers questions from the audience befor meeting oneonone with local residents and college students. In speaking with reporters