Between four and six. What do you make about advantage, is it enough to get out of the margin of error west and mark. I believe so. On the high side the margin of error is around five points so even if the Vice President work come down say a percentage point up,that would be enough to do it. Thats a high margin though, c most cases it will be between three and five points. Pennsylvania is going to be close, no doubt and were not going to know on Election Night because there will still be ballots counted for the days afterwards but it does look as if the polls are accurate of the Vice President is going to pull this off. With 20 electoral votes estate state what role do you think the state will play in theselection. If the election is close, then other in other words the polls are largely wrong right now and so none of the other states can play such a as florida or North Carolina or georgia or arizona are competitive in pennsylvania will decide and i think we may not know the outcome of pennsylvania on Election Night we will know for sure if the election is close or if in fact its morelandslide for the vicepresident. If its close it will come down to pennsylvania. What about those who dont traditionally vote, how did they vote in 2016, what do we know about other or not the candidatesare getting them to show up this time around. We do expect turnout to be higher. We know, pennsylvania is typically has a higher turnout rate than the rest of the country but as you say there are still between 30 and 40 percent of eligible voters are turning out. President trump did mobilize new people to the polls last time. And he may do so again this election. Were also getting some evidence that there are people voting for the first time for Vice President biden because they think that the election has consequences and so there being motivated to turn out as well. I think both campaigns right now are tfocused more on turnout and they are on trying to get new voters to the polls and i think that there have been efforts over the last year to register new voters both parties and the republicans have had some edge there right now i think both focus more on turnout their own base of supporters. What is your take on the Supreme Court yesterday. And their decision on the pennsylvania ballots. Obviously at it has consequences. It means that the state can continue counting ballots that have received for a few days after the election and here again if the election is close in other words if the margin of error works in the president s paper on and so we see an election where the difference is something between zero percent and one percent like it was in 2016 thoseadditional ballots may make a difference. And at this point in time the Supreme Courts decision could favor continued to count ballots which may be in favor of the Vice President biden as it seems more democrats are voting throughout absentee or early voting. I dont think that question is settled. I think if we get november 4 and theres not a clear answer theres going to continue to be legal challenges and thecourt made here that decision again. What are the rules in place in pennsylvania for a recount. Its within the margin that i think its roughly under one percent where there is an automatic one. I think youre going to see both campaigns challenging in order to have a recount and if its anywhere close to one percent so i think likely well see a recount. Just because the consequences will be so dire. Where will you be watching, what pockets of pennsylvania will you be watching onElection Night and why. There are some counties that switched from blue to red in 2016 that could in fact flip back. Rosanne county and North Hampton county on the eastern side of the state, you county in the northwest part of the state. Those are all three counties that were once blue and netflix. Two of them,. And North Hampton back to blue in the 2018 midterms and so theres the chance thosethree could go back to blue. I think beaver county, thats traditionally been a more republican county but it did go blue in 2018 in the midterms that you could see that coming back. Both counties of west pennsylvania or philadelphia, we could see that flip and then i think cumberland in the center area map is going to look largelythe same. Most of the county that are red or blue in 2012 and 2016 will remain so there are about five or six counties that could flip back and i think once the overall margins everywhere across the state so as president is able to dofive or six percent better even in traditionally red county , that could help makeup the difference from 2016. Will go to gary in philadelphia supporting the president , good morning. So youre never going to change the layout you and pittsburgh, theyre always going to be democratic strongholds, always have been. Thats consistent but what we will see in pennsylvania is one, a lot of Trump Supporters are going to come out and say it because theres a lot of violence against Trump Supporters. People have had their homes damaged, their signs taken away, attacks on the streets. You see jews in new york getting attacked when they are jewish for trump so theres a lot of violence and negative stances but towards Trump Supporters but what i think youre going to see in pennsylvania and a more rural or i guess further suburban areas are people who dont want their counties to turn into the areas that are democratically one so for instance i believe it was Lancaster County that had an incident where there was a ng Police Shooting and there were protests that almost turned into riots but instead of turning into a full out right, they charged every Single Person who was arrested and they are pushing them through the justice systems. Not letting them go or bailing athem out or turning the other way so when we talk about law and order and we talk about what kind of administration do we want, i think its very evident in pennsylvania when you see in those more Rural Counties that they could put a quashed any issues that arose. That speaks volumes. Thats what were going to see in the middle ofpennsylvania. Nick clark. I think that as i said before most red counties will stay red. I think the law endorsed pr order message the president is advancing and is resonating are likely resonating already with voters who have decided theyre going to support the president. Theres not a lot of evidence in the polling data and changing anyones mind and i think its really resonating with people who are already convinced so the question is is it going to mobilize greater turnout, are Trump Supporters more likely to vote because theyre concerned about these law and order issues. I havedomy doubts about that because i think it already highly mobilized. They are already likely to turn out and vote so i suspect youre right, at the end of the day the polls are wrong pennsylvania stays red that maybe one of the explanations but i have some doubts about it right now. How confident are you clarkin pulling this time around . I think were in a different situation and i think we have more space rolling. A lot of the polling that a lot of people were basing their projections on that in place where national polls. We didnt have as many staples as we have now so there are or reliable and consistent he was going on in the. I the polls for some of the error that they had in 2016. Essentially they were waiting the preferences of demographics that were likely to support the president as much and were seeing right now. So im fairly confident just because of the differences that make up the polling methodology that the polls may be more accurate and we can see that in 2018 therefore more accurate in protecting outcomes and what we saw in 2016. Demographics that were not wasted enough in the 2016 holes that supported the president , what are those voters saying now about this election. That primarily whites without College Education that still remains pretty firmly thsupportive of the president. Particularly white men without College Education we have seen some movement white women without a College Education so whereas thats ridiculous group supported the president in 2016, i about 10 to 20 points, its basically even between biden and trump amongst that group right now. But that group does firmly remain in the president s camp and there are a lot of white voters without aCollege Education in pennsylvania which is part of what makes it much more of a swing state. David in florida, phyllis supporting the president , thank you for the conversation n. I have a couple of points i now live in florida, im 82 so i have a overall viewpoint i guess what i am an avid Trump Supportersbecause i watched him as i was growing up in philadelphia. And what he could get done in new york when nobody else could cause i did work in new rkyork for a while. Whats as far as the university of pennsylvania, my father graduated from the university of pennsylvania and the university of law school area and let me tell you, that biden has a, what they call them . 80 funds at the university of pennsylvania and i dont know if he even went there the chinese are the people that paid him the money for that fund the university of pennsylvania and my father, secondly, pittsburgh. I used to livein pittsburgh, i love pittsburgh. It is absolutely booming. Its losing with people, you can barely get across the street. To put in new bridges. My son, maybe within a year of trump coming in a 6500 raise. So anything that people say about trump didnt do this and trump didnt do that and trump lies, nobody actually tells what was the light he told. I want to pick up on what you said about your son. Are people saying theyre better off in pennsylvania than they were four years ago. I dont think so. Im not sure that even the president supporters are saying that. They still look at the president as the one that improved that situation. His success in 2016 was largely based on the message around change. Going to make your lives better. Hes in a lot of ways trying to restate that message even though hes coming as an incumbent and his supporters are going along with it. A lot of whats wrong with the country are factors that have been the on the president s control but by reelecting him he may be able to address those and make the country even better. What about independents, nonvoters , swing voters, what are they saying on the question . I think independents and swing voters are looking a lot like democrats saying the countries not better off, in fact its worse off. That their dramatic need for change and they dont think the president is the one that can deliver that. Look primarily at him as responsible for the situation. I think its n roughly in the high 80s and low 90s amongst democrats who would say that, i 60s among independents. Jared, beechwood michigan, youre undecided. I was calling because i was listening to the program here and i heard one individual calling from michigan , just a couple counties over from where i lived and iheard his comments, they werent spiteful but then i heard the philadelphia caller come in , the legal in and she started screaming and ranting and raving, donttell us how to g do things, you dont know whats happening in philadelphia. Unless the tv is lying to us and were turning on and seeing the riots and businesses being burned to the ground, then we do know what the hell is going on in philadelphia. And we have a right to our s own opinions. Whats happening in philadelphia in a lot of the other big cities are democratically controlled that are being destroyed and im a lifelong democrat myself but where ive gotten to the point where im frustrated is in 2016, we cast our ballots. But even when Bernie Sanders he one, Hillary Clinton got the superdelegates. Are you undecided, you sound like you know youre voting for. To be honest with you after listening to the background conversations on hold im leaning wrongly towards the president of the United States and ill tell you the reason why. When i hear people blaming him for different things, ill give you an example. The cost of living has gone up. Part of that is because of this pandemic area how is the president responsible for that . They need to take response ability for their own actions and stop blaming, like the one lady said, they keep saying donald trump is lying they wont tell what a lie is. Charles in trenton florida, supporting theformer Vice President. Go ahead. Fr i was just wanting to make a comment about the fracking. I know its me, that the big issue in pennsylvania and im not sure if everyones aware but fracking is so dependent on the price of oil around the world and right now theres an oil war going on between russia and saudi arabia so fracking is like off the table. Its too expensive toeven try to do. So to be complaining about what biden thinks about that is kind of irrelevant. And then. Let me leave it there and get clarks perspective on this question of fracking and does it alienate voters. The Vice President s comments on it. Does it alienate voters in pennsylvania. I think so many voters already have their minds made up whether theyre going to support him or not its unlikely to have much effect. It does resonate with pennsylvania voters ] is a big part of the pennsylvania economy and itself a lot of new jobs and fuel additional revenue into local economies in the state economies. So i think the issue itself does resonate with voters here im not convinced that its moving the dial on at all in terms of what the onlikely outcome is going to b. Life. I think most people have their minds made up. You have to couple moments ago whats different about 2020 and 2016 and i think there was still about 12 percent of voters undecided. They tended to break in the president s favor a few days before the election. I think the same moment and even earlier, were looking more at four or five percent of voters whose minds are not made up or who are generally undecided. And i think again for many of those they are probably leaving a particular direction. Its hard to imagine that the fracking issue is affecting more than a handful of people area. The president and the former Vice President holding dueling Campaign Rallies today in tampa florida. The president will be there at 1 30 p. M. Eastern time. We have coverage of his event right here on cspan and on our website. Or you can listen if youre on the go with the free radio then in the evening time, joe biden will be there thats going to be at 6 30 p. M. Eastern time you can watch us here on our website and the radio. Lets go to donna in hampton virginia, supporting the president or excuse me, charles in trenton florida porting the former Vice President , youre on the air. Donna. Have been virginia. Im having fun with your phone calls trying to get through. H. A little bit of an issue this morning. Like your girl said yougot some bad weather. Actually, im wondering what you dont have an independent line anymore. I think thats the one i am should be calling under. But i have a couple comments for your guests. I have several family members who are going to vote for trump for one good reason, because their 401 k s have gone through the roof. They are very happy that hes in office and they will reelect him. I also have at least six st family members that are in the medical field. In several differentstates. One is a director of a big hospital in tallahassee. And mps across from washington state, whatever. The covid thing is wore out and thats what the democrats were counting on to carrythem through. They have no issues in their hospitals. I want to get mix perspective on the covid19, how thatsimpacting this race in pennsylvania. I think covid is impacting the race everywhere. Again, amongst the president s supporters i think you might find people like donna who think the issue is not salient or that the pandemic has somehow been handled or weare over it. I think amongst vindependent voters , theyre not seeing the same reality. The pandemic is very much ongoing. Their concern about how the federal responding to that so i dont think its a given every independent voter will slip from President Trump to biden because of this but overall the issue has probably been a plus for Vice President biden. One thing that i was going to ask about, both on the issue of taking away peoples freedom when it comes to state elections
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