Money, in addition and made the world rich. He is joining conversation by david dobbs. It. Harvard bookstores continues to authors in the work to our communities and other digital communities. Harvard. Com events. You also signed up for newsletter and chopper shelves from home. This discussion will conclude for some time for your questions. If you have a question for speakers go to the q a box. Ask a question and anytime and we will come to those at the end of the talk and we will work on answering as any of your questions is the time will allow. In just a moment i will post the harvard. Com link to purchase this book in the chat box. You purchase and contributions makes this virtual series possible. And now more than ever support the independent bookstores. So thank you. We sincerely appreciate your support now and always. Alex and finally, if we have other issues, technical issues we will do our best to resolve them quickly. Thank you for your patience and understanding. None pleased to introduce our speakers. Thomas is a professor of science and mit and the author of several previous titles including the hunt for walkins. Berlin, and newton and the counterfeiter. Hes also received several awards for his documentary films including the walter science documentary science award, the peabody award in new york chapter emmy. They enjoyed this evening in conversation by journalist and essayist, david dobbs. Author of the books my mothers lover and happiness. Discussing money for nothing fighting with history of science meets the history of finance. For the Financial Times and the kids book of the year award and he writes, he is a brilliant advisor with a grand view of history. Heres the modern financement fraud. A gripping story of scientists and swindlers. All too pertinent to our modern world. So now i would like to turn things over to tonights speakers did. Thomas thank you so much alex. Speech of tom, i was intrigued by this book from the getgo because of the title. It was a great song by dire straits but some other things as well. But as you mean to convey by the title. Thomas the great miracle of capitalism is captured by the immortal words, a cultural thing. If you recall, the slogan, i will gladly pay you on tuesday for a hamburger today. This 1 00 p. M. Popeye. The reason is so important is that his credit. And what credit does, what borrowing does is it creates money out of a promise that we make in the future. In figuring out how to do this than it can be sustained. It would be killed by crisis. The figuring out how to make credit working not just for todays drink or hamburger. But for the whole nation. The whole economy and the whole global system. Figuring that was one of the great innovations of what historians called early modern europe. David as your book details this from a lot of other innovations as well. What entitles us one is that i gave money and i got nothing. And your book titles money for nothing. And i am making money, and i didnt get anything. Theres a lot of those things here. What led you to our did you start this book and what led you to write it. Thomas all of my books the amount of something that bugs me. And usually coming out of some thread that i find another project that i may not have time or may not be appropriate to go into that project for you to do something out of place no one figured out. In this case, was doing some newton. Great crime story. And all this cool stuff. I started reading up about newton got into his life and character. I found that 20 years after the event that i was chronically no project, he had troubles with money. And famously said that i can. The motions of heavens but i cannot. The madness of the folly of the people. And i thought i want to know more about that that ultimately led to this. David that make sense. It is plain extremely role in this. Interesting. If he suffers from nothing is a secret about what happened. This was sort of the bubble of all levels. In god, but in that way. And also allow the foundation in a way. Thomas new students the integral character in the entire book. In the beginning and there at the end. The whole story hinges on this really sort of wonderful delicious horrifying financial crash that occurs in 1720. In the actual moment that the stock market turns, nurses going to boom from january but especially from april through the summer. In the right into the beginning of september. On. Much today, 300 years ago. It turned in the slide, it just always tech. Its happening 300 years ago. David remind me, that was. Then newton took the sort of, make my when he traded i think an annuity that was worth every year more than his salary. He put down cash. Temple bolling is stopped and then fell off a cliff. David thomas overalls like he t 20000 pounds. Theres a lot of money in 31st century led in 1720 was the equivalent of some millions today. Good been much more. He took a bath. He was a wreck. It bugged him. David did he have any money left. Thomas he did. He still had a job of painting okay and he still had a net. It was not on the street. He went from an ordinarily sort of modestly kind of middle Level Society to somebody whos general and the leak permits. Usually richer a few months. The real heartbreak was he got out of the market. One of the parts of the story ahead of the narrative. He got out and he figured hed made as much money as he needed. He was having with his return. The stop kept rising and started feeding on itself. The 2000 before that, the bubble, housing boom. With his real process, that was captioned, he had it. It was safe. And he couldnt stand watching it. Its was if a, and we were looking at it from the outside. As he was losing money. When not getting those gains. So i sold for an average run 50, canopy like six weeks to two months after he sold. So doubled again. And this is starting at the beginning around 100. So a really big rapid boom. Almost tenfold. Speedo diesel and embodying again. Thomas he actually bought some of his stuff. Not all of it. But any. David so as a whole, we can all say. [inaudible]. Look what he did. How did he will, tell us briefly about what created this. Thomas so theres two ways to look at this. As approximate set of decisions. There was a huge intellectual change. And took place in the mid 17 hundreds. Maybe the late 17th century. Two right around the time of the bubble. So 50 70 years. There were big changes in the way that britain and europe in general thought about all kinds of important things. Basically, scientific revolution. In some of the things that go along with it for a long with britains in england and then threaten Political Revolution sorted which makes the role of parliaments and running the country and in funding the country much more important than we had previously done. David this was potentially a new set of tools and sort of calibrating or money moves and how it works. Any for the first time appear that is possible to manage it is not right. Or market. Thomas never people who are really thinking about running the whole sort of business of the nation in the way that would maximize national power. I thought it in france, they thought it in london. There was his belief in on some level they had practice. They figured it out. This is a cartoon right but theres a cartoon with truth to it. You can almost reduce with scientific truth with two core concepts. One is that you quantify to gain more understanding to gain the annuity to protect in the future. One of the critical things with some of his basic mathematical ideas that including especially crucially mentions right invention. Its all about money over time. The other thing the newton and any others did, just one person. Newton was sort of an avatar. Not just sort of looking at this but systematic observing and experimenting on the world. Findings in getting this information and performing on it. It will allows you not just think about abstract things. Every even just celestial things like rice jupiter going to be in six months time or what governs the moon of the tides. The idea of math and quantification. Can be applied to you and me are now figuring out how to buy and borrow all these things. One of the things he gets worked out is the present value of things. By the peace plan maybe a business worship is way to do things over time it makes money. What is its value right now and how we take the income stream going to wait on this piece of length or 20 years. How i think about how that money or how much money is worth. David so your ability to. The change over time. And he said earlier, newton said he could reject the dynamics of the human cause or something to that effect. So its kind of like what we are trying to look at right now with managing this pandemic and knowing the virus is one thing but predicting with the peoples leaders will do is another. So in a way, this is again in a cartoonish way, is it helpful to say that this book is a story of how modern finance is founded and then actually quickly quickly counted and also sort of like the science of this. When they thought they had the knowledge to control and. The markets and control them so they can call a growing. And leached some powerful forces. In some cases there is so they could not control them. Thomas i think that is is one of the things that i found, actually fairly late in sort of trying to figure out how to make book sing is a passage, he is in some way sort of the first generalist. One of the first, is a propagandist. A small thinker. I think they know that he was from the very beginning, he had such enthusiasm for this new idea. An essay on projects. In sort of catalog of an celebration of all the things that people were trying to do, new ways to comb the land. He just loved that stuff. And as britain actually invented the tool of the credit. Really aggressively. Actually inventing what we now call the idea of a National Debt. If this the thing that has a birthday right. Theres and 5093. The reason he has a, his up until then the europeans and certainly in england, the idea behind running estate finance was that ultimately rest on the person, the first rule, the money. Any any removes by the time you get to this period of time. In theory, is the first. What happened in the 1690s is that it changed. Parliament control. Authorizing i acted parliament in trying different Revenue Streams that they could create. This was a radical change in something as seemingly dull and boring as borrowing money to pay the soldiers. On since the foe watches all of the stuff, there is a point where you have a point. So daniel watches all of this in a season of work. In england is able to do things with this borrowing. Like wars with france and so forth. And really expanding its reach and power by having access to credit in a way that other european agents were not able to do. He said this is our secret power. Any prices passage only talks about how the government raises debts and then manages them. And in creates an elaborate metaphor. This machine. This was amazing. Because he has his vision of it. Something you can really have this rational design and control of. But its also explicitly the idea. David as permissible as the covers. And again, the outlook and then it happened to occur and thats what calculus is all about. I think it is interesting to that in any other ways, so at the time, the general outline of it, again you talk about why this was so vital to britain. They regrouped. There figuring out how to have their cake and will, the wrong metaphor. I would do this. So that was why it was time to see countries with more soldiers because they could raise money quicker. Thomas the bubble itself emerges from in some ways successes of the first attempts to use the new ideas about money towards credit to their advantage. Because what happened is that britain gets involved in a series of wars last until 1815. As the one of the things that defines it is the wars against louis the 14th. In the last of british war against france. Inning with napoleon. That the parameters. So in the first round, invention of the National Debt is responsible for the extraordinary cost of war. The britain cannot or can roll out of every day and keeping the army in the field. So they start raising really quite fast starting from 1693. In the first war and is in the kind of group a little. But another war starts and they keep doing the same thing. They always borrow in the right when a crisis is there. In the war turns to crap. And for decades and decades and high Interest Rates brightest so by the mid. The money the government takes in from all of its sources is on the debt that has been a accumulated over the past 25 years. David so the key here was a found a way will actually, this company was in a place to take the first shot. And they consolidate this debt. And then they sell it the right to receive the payment of it. And you can buy stock in theory right. So the package he did it as an asset. In a sense it was but only if you count it as an asset into the top. Thomas absolutely it was asset. What they do, is the britain borrowed what they call a lottery ticket. And they made payments for years. They bought it it they sold annuities so the people could buy a guaranteed payment for a lifer to lives. The sold history of debt related they all have different terms in different strengths. In one of the things about almost all of them was the people who left the money or lent money to the government, lottery tickets or whatever in return. They could keep the income stream. But they could not sell the underlying asset. David by the contract. Thomas so they sent a hundred pounds of the government. They would do the 5 pounds or 8 pounds or whatever it was per year. With a would never get there hundred pounds back. They just keep getting their income streams. Assuming the company said lets get rid of this complete mess. Too complicated. Nobody gets her money. We will trade our stock if you give us your debt, the government will allow us to create more stock. Youll get a reduced rate. We will use we can, the fund the trading operation that will make us all very rich. And best of all if you take stock instead of holding onto your debt that you want the money back, just walked down to exchange. And say that i can who wants it. In the government is better terms. And it was supposed to be a win win win kind of deal. The problem was they were right. This, debt and work on a small scale before this. Could work on and has worked since. But they set it up and away that would if it had worked, if it had all come together. What made the people who work inside of the company before the deal happened, insanely rich. Mr. Than you can imagine. Mr. Than anybody had previously done. David something vaguely familiar. It. Thomas yes. David the government agreed to this. They were so desperate target and generally have a choice. Thomas they really needed to solve this problem. David is good for them at the time. What ensued was well until me a little bit and begin to in a minute. How the bubble essentially was a combination seems to me from the description as some people ran this company and others who became allies and so on, there are people who are receiving and also a lot of people receiving annuities. Tell me the role that the role of what we now call the stock market. Is that right. Thomas david the modern one. The center round jonathans coffeehouse. How did that get started. Thomas and aggression in the book on coffeehouse, we dont have time to get into it but. David recipe it. Thomas exactly. The stock market, there been joke Stock Companies for 150 years or more at that point. But up until the 1680s or so, there were very few shares there were almost never traded. Maybe an African Company which was a slave company. They were in fact companies that have shares that in theory can move but they very rarely did. David intended to be bought and sold by a very small group of people right. I. Thomas in the 1680s, the started to change. And very rapidly. A lot of new Companies Formed all kinds of things. Mining companies, insurance companies. They called this, the 1690s, roughly 21750, call the financial revolution. The term amongst historians of the period in one of the arguments in the book is understanding this revolution is simply a part of the scientific revolution. A large intellectual transformation going on. And the people did not separate. And tomorrow ill be a financial revolutionist. Edmund talley was working on the math of the life insurance. Mood newton himself writing about how credit and Interest Rates work david and quantify how important things work. Thomas yes and people still, there were enormously broad here. But anyway, the stock market existed. Originally the stockbrokers work in this building called the royal exchange. They got booted out for basically being too loud and obnoxious and moved more or less about 100 yards to this little alleyway. It had i think for five coffee shops. They just sort of set up in the company rooms. They started training there. The most important of those was jonathans which sort of became the center of what was increasingly understood as the london stock exchange. Nothing left of that now. But if you go to this like this horrible little post blitz you know, bland building. No windows. His little blue oval plaques, this where jonathan was. Speech of nothing quite there. Thomas the thing about the bubble it self, the key thing was honey designed the deal. This was the first time, the thing to remember about it is yes, this is a bubble and yes there was deception previous people voted to deceive others. And sometimes the same people were actually calling others while they were fooling themselves. This was the first time that this had happen so the deal would set up with a really fatal flaw in the middle of it. Nobody ever said how much, what the value of what the piece of debt was. This is the how the modern bond market first starts to form and people in financial will tell you, the stock, may where the headlines come but theband, may where the action. I. Much, much larger and the fate of nations hacks on the been market in a way the stock market reflects but done drive. Thats starting right here. And they set up a really interesting deal. Its a deal that could have worked under certain circumstances but the way they set it up had a flaw in it that meant that first of all, the whole idea worked only if the stock stayed expensive. So sometime around the momented plunged you were doomed. You were supposedly buying these assets put you were also just buying the rise. Because it was expected to go up. Went up 50 pounds yesterday and ill be rich. How people buy stocks now. Yeah. Just this email from the wall street journal every day called the Intelligent Investor and right now theres an amateur boom in options trading, and im reading this going, ive seen this before and it happened in june 1720. Yes. In fact. In 1720 they were using the same options we use today. Call options, put options, buy options and sell options. Theres very little new under thank you sun and we still behave stupidly around money just the same way we did 300 years ago. A question he want to turn to here. First, the between this and 2008, the collapse of the this fancy derivative that supposedly gathered and kept safe, unexplodable, tons of mortgage debt grew to be not safe it and completely exploded, partly blahs as Michael Lewis writes in best book, pick short, no one understood the algorithm that supposedly explained how it and you have to wonder if things are going on like that now. Its amazing how closely that the bubble parallels that. This containment of debt in an instrument people dont understand and it was complicated enough it was hard to understand and its way more complicated now. So you have the same problem. I argue that it stays roughly the same in terms of the level of complication. Remember the south sea bubble was the first time it happened. Calculus was 40 or 50 years old. Go ahead. And basically i agree with you. Think the 2008 and the south sea bubble. Much, much more similar than they are different. Oh, yeah, thats my feeling, too. [loss of audio] lewis book. The parallels are the kind of slickness and and the piece. The structure of the bubble, how it inflated and why, what was required for people to believe it, what happened to those who didnt. Just as Lewis Christian kelled the handful of people who saw this was unsustainable, could never work, there was the critical thing in the 2008 thing was that these assets that were thought to be uncore uncorrelated. You couldnt other lose the value of a Mortgage Backed security because theyre all over the country and diverse any income stream. All the houses and the values were much more correlated and got more so as the market get to more inflated. Functionally the same thing happening in the bubble with the price of the stock rising and everybodys ability and willingness to bid on new releases, in issues hoe stock, turning on the fact the stock was high, remained high and continued to grow and the moment there was any reason to stop believing that, just as the moment there was any reason to suddenly realize that in fact these assets that were supposedly secure because they were diversified, werent. The momentum a psychological trying trigger. Moment that realization hurts and the bottom fall outside and Warren Buffett says you discover who is not wearing pants when the tide guess out. You realize, im not holding what thought i was,. Exactly good questions coming in here. One regards something i believe you addressed in the first half of the book roughly, which is has to do with the history of government lotteries. Susannah spears writes he an successor toes who immigrated from germany to england and her familys Research Suggests that for what susan understands they did they sometimes jews at the time didnt have opportunities so that selling lotteries was way to survive. Rabbis and shoemakers. Thats right. This was the jewish story in all of this is actually quite interesting. Dont get to into great detail in the book but jus jews were kicked out of england in the medieval period by edward i because he was filing wars he couldnt afford and the kicked the jews out and took their assets and he was using it to attempt to conquer wales, and the jews were not let back into england until cromwell so the middle of the 17th century. So. [overlapping speakers] they come back and dont have deep roots in the society, dont have a huge number of ways to make a living. And when england starts trying to raise money to fight these wars in the 1690s, they try something that was invented in italy, but these ideas of doing lottery sales that are actually ways to persuade people to use the thrill of gambling to lend larger sums of money. The idea was you sell a ticket, 10pounds a ticket and carries with it the chance of winning a prize. And then even if you didnt win you got an interest payment. 5 , 10 , whatever it was, per year. Two reasons. To buy. You win the lotto, budget for the nutter and then you bought it for the nutter and then hung on for the income. This happened 369 in he innovation was to sell them cheaply enough so you werent just borrowing money from the gentry and the aristocracy, that the seams tres, and people were involved in the stock market then and the pastrymaker, and sometimes people really small investing yep. And people would band together, five people would buy a 10pound ticket for a chance at the lottery and then decide whether they would keep it for the interest rate. This is huge expansion of the pool of people you could extract money from to run the government and people had to sell those things. You send a Million Pounds in tenpound tickets thats a lot of tickets to move. A public frenzy that dominated the news, everyone was it, it seemed not everyone obviously but, man, a mass market. So i dont know if susan is still on. Im dying to know when her ancestors moved to britain. Another question you do address kind of the other way around in the book which is the importance it concerns the importance of these new instruments they had, this new knowledge, this economic sense, in the success of the british empire, and the specific wording from johnmer re weather what it the connection between the Industrial Revolution and that was started not long after this period and the introduction of the use of credit that helped support new industries and so on. Right. The answer of course is, its complicated. 15 minutes left so has to be a simple answer. The short answer is the version of the book. Its really what happens after the south sea bubble is the market crashes, thousands of people lose their shirts including very important people, people who you think of as having pull on the government and there was a lot of pressure from different places to try to make it right again, bail people out. Yes. A proposal even just to reverse all the trades. Giving the whether its the bank of england the richest man in england who went who was a shoemakers son. Thats a different one. The duke of portland started 172 as the richard man in inning explained ended so far broke you couldnt see broke from where he was. So underwater. So much so that he was forced to avoid inprisonment for debt and get out of dodge and the took the usually lucrative post of governor of jamaica to avoid dealing with creditors and the problem was, it was gamble. He was a genome gambled and the gambled on his ability to make a second fortune in jamaica before jamaicas know notoriously dangerous environment got him and as with his other bargains he lost that one, he died of yellow fever after three or four years in office there. Very interesting to read your account of where these different creatures ran and one thing that rings true today or parallels today, there was some accountability but it was of a limited yeah. Few who were proxies, left alone or even bailed out. Thats right. They werent fully bailed out. They were but they many institutions were. Many fewer people went to jail than should have but to the question that john was asking, so what happened after the bubble crashed is not everybody went to jail, and the duke of portland do coo get a post that could get a post that would get him out dodge bus the robert the first true Prime Minister of britain, said we arent going back on the deal. The point of turning all of britains debt into south sea stock was to rationalize the debt and we are going to hang on to that. They werent going back on the original deal that started. I if you loan the government money, you wont get screwed. Yes, and the the interesting thing to me is in france theyd done something very similar at almost exactly the same time and when they had to rebuild from their crash, the mississippi bubble crash, they said, yes, we arent going to make people whole etchll have debt treat the same way but wet only goes arent going to risk and go back to the old ways of borrowing money with the long term promises and pay higher Interest Rates and wolf said no between 1722 and the early 1750s, he and his successor, pellum, basically supervise the construction of turned south sea stock some south sea bonds in effect and there were into a tradeable bond. Turned the rest of British Government debts into similarry uniform easily tradeable stuff, showed that britain could pay its interest on a regular basis, with very little risk of bankruptcy and in general made the entire apparatus of credit interest a simple, boring, useful, there was never an occasion again when people could pump the price of government paper in the same way. Tend to resemble looks similar to us. Know exactly what its going to be worth when. Its boring. 172 its the wild west. In 1750 it is civil you can no longer carry your guns into town and by the early 19th century you have councils and this enormously stable and reliable credit financial system. And what britain does with this is they really reserve this just for the government. They asset up rules so private companies cant use this new apparatus of credit but the treasury can. And so what britain gets out of it is that first real boost in their ability to exert power all across the globe. In a minute i want to ask you what the u. S. Did differently. I will do that. How they i thought you were. A couple of quick questions. Patty has a wonderful pair of questions. One not trivial but little and the other one big. The first one is the britt and american addition editions of you poock have different subtitle. Is there a different story, which do you prefer or why and are you not commenting. I love all my children equally. They have different covers and very different in the cover style and i think theyre both gorgeous their american one is more josh high contrast, the british one is lovely blues and subtle textures and i think the difference is in britain, theres more broad cultural momentary of this is a mon don story and thats london story and their subtitle reflects that. Dont have a preference. That makes sense. Sounds like the book is aimed at their audiences, and her other question is, your thoughts about when the current bubble will burst. Um are you going short . Let me warn everyone do not use this. This is not financial advice. Personally i am happiest when i have more cash right now. I think the thing about at the point i really hope comes through in the book is that one of the things you can see from to the south sea bubble and the way crises are similar in structure and sequence have occurred again and again and again afterwards, is that, yes, financial capitalism is this extraordinarily powerful effective too much it makes us rich, has made the world rich in ways that are really the contrast in the way people can organize, using the prospects for the future to build an Economic Life now that secures that future. Its extraordinary. It was truly a radical change in our relationship to time, our lives and how we can build a future for ourselves and our children. Thats out great. Also has the flip side is it comes with a systemic failure mode built in because human beings are less rational than they think they are, and money manias seem to be a integral part of the way finance works. So, i can say with absolute certainty well have a major downturn. If i live a normal life span, certainly within my life span. I fear sooner than the full extent of how long i might love, and i couldnt possibly one thing we see is we dont know what it is that, when the various sort of frailties that affect modern finance, leverage, contagion, unstable relationships. These occur in different settings over and over again and theres a trigger point that creates a sort of rippling effect that goes through the system and causes instead of mineor correction, this time its the crash. Its impossible to predict but seems to be it has been for the first three hundred years of financial capitalism a regular recuring feature. Well hit hard times again. One other question is doctor do money manias compare to other bubbles. The tulip mania is fascinating and its great and interesting. But on some level its i dont know if you remember wasnt pet rocks these dolls that everybody had to have one in christmas. I cant either. That was a bubble. So, there are commodity bubbles and sometimes theyre set up, theres an attempt to manipulate markets but sometimes theres just this human fancy gets engaged in something and seems really important and and things get priced out of whack and sometimes dough deflate without great trouble but if they buy. Thes a tulip bulb it can have more they like financial bubbles because they are financialize he. Do they issue promissory notes but financial bubbles are distinct because they you can construct an everlarger amount of financial risk on a single asset by using different financial tools. Those options we were talking about earlier a classic example. This goes to the a couple of questions. One, Cabbage Patch dollars or chia pets or beanie babies or the candidates for the things. And one of them the Mortgage Backed security and ones more complex and thats so true and one thing that stuck with me, to be on the same shelf of three maximes to invest by or not invest by, one being never invest in something you dont understand. Almost everyone in that bubble did as well as the mortgage is that people bailed when they had this moment of revelation. They realized what they were holding was not what they thought they bought or they recognized it had changed. At first the south Sea Trading Company was supposed to be about moving goods from south america and cornering the market and that side of the been litllly never sailedded and became Something Else and one investor you pointed out when they saw that they got out and made a profit. I it wasnt huge but it was Something Like 100 . I think youre talking about tom mass thomas guy. He was book seller who had become a fairly successful investor and bought south sea stock when it was basically a slowmoving company before the bubble that basically paid interest on a certain amount of government securities it held, and was just it was kind of an indirect way to hold government paper. And then the bubble took off and what had been a berg source of income for him became this enormous speculative profit and he said ive had enough. Ive made all the money i need to make. Was rich before and now im obscenely rich and sell my share. He had a large enough pile of shared, took six weeks to sell them. He was trying to avoid move thing market by bailing out help got out at roughly half the value it would attain at the peak. So a vast so he made a net profit of 250,000 pounds. 20,000 pounds were millions. its many, many millions and he stayed out. He kept his money. You said the a huge hospital in london. A Major Medical center. Which is a nice story to there were happy stories, happy endings, and i think this is a good story to tell particularly as book store readings, events, because he was a book seller first. Who made good. Yep. Okay. That seems to me a good place to wrap unless you have one last thing you want to tell us. I want to say, one thing which is thanks to harvard book story. One of the great book stores in the country. Ive been buying books from them since 1976, and i am so glad their stale around and whether or not anybody wants to buy my book, please buy some books from them. Theyre by all means buy my book but their it herly deserving of any support anybody can give them. The other thing want to say is that monday, wednesday, friday, i look at the south sea bubble at this triumphant story where people discovered a new way to think but nate tour and human life, and they made some terrible mistakes on the with a but what came out of it are the abstract tools and intellectual engines that allow toes lead life vastly more comfortable, and tuesday, thursday, saturday, its a saturday story because in 1720, somebody even as mart as isaac newton can be forgiven for not having figured it out because wait brand new, no experience, no sort of body of accumulated learning to sort of recognize what was happening to them. This happened to news 1929, happened in the 70s and the 90s. It happened in 20088. There are 20078 and there are signs something is brought i. Hope my kid gets through college first. Its going to happen again. And if newton and his peers and his contemporaries have an excuse for not fully grasping the predicament they were in, we have seen it happen enough through history and in our own lives that we absolutely do not have that excuse. And one thing i hope people get out of the book is a sense that we have to hold the great and the goo gs feed the goods feed to the fire so we dont get burned again. So many lives were wrecked in the recent great recession. Words for the wise. Thank you everybody for coming. Thanks indeed. Tonight on booktv in prime crime, eric dolan provides a history of hurricanes thats impacted the united states. National pentagon radio maria hossa shares her thoughts on current immigration issue and her person story. Donald trump jr. Offers comments on what he calls liberal privilege. And john brennan talks about his life and career, and in former second Lady Lynn Cheney chronicles the leadership of the first president s who all hailed from virginia. Consult your program guide. Public can. A look at Publishing Industry new. Britains late rare award has announced theyll delay their Award Ceremony by two days to november 19th no order to not could conflict with the reels love former president Barack Obamas memoir. The price takes peninsula is in october but will come the day of the Americas National prize kevyn young i thank you director osmithsonian human of africanamerican history and culture. He has ben the direct of the Shomberg Center for the past four years. In other news, federal judge ruled that Justice Department has shown sufficient evidence that former National Security adviser john bolton broke nondisclosure agreement width the publication of his recent memoir of his team any trump white house, his lawyers sought dismissal of the case which now lead to a trial. Also, npd book scan reports book sales rose for 10 . Adult nonfiction sales caw a week of positive gapes led by the book by bob woodward, and two poocks were return to British Library think were sent through the mail and a note of apology. At todays rates they would have totaled more than 10,000. Book dtv will bring you new programs and publishing news and you can watch our past programs anytime at booktv. Org. In hello. Im annie druyan and im speaking to you from my