You here today to our conversation on Foreign Policy and the us president ial election. This event is part of the brookings policy 2020 series which seeks to empower voters with factbased datadriven nonpartisan information to better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office this year. Thank you for joining us. Were 29 days away from november 3. Americans will cast their ballots for the next president of the future of americas global role is also on the ballot today. Looking toward the election, todays conversation will focus in particular on its implications for the transatlantic relationship and us Foreign Policy towards europe. Leaders as many of their counterparts around the world are working watching the election closely and while there are differing views about how the upcoming november will shape the transatlantic relationship few in europe believe it will revert to its previous standing. European council of use of the transatlantic relationship shows that france and germany need to prepare for longterm disengagement from the us regardless of the outcome of the election. This polling also finds irrespective of the result no eu member state would seek to position europe as a third power between the us and china. Todays discussion will assess the stakes of the election and its implications for us Foreign Policy. Im delighted to be joined by an outstanding panel of brookings experts who will offer insights and analysis about what we can expect from either a second trump term or biden presidency. They will consider how the geopolitical europe would react to either scenario. We dive into the conversation id like to take a moment to thank the turkish business and Industry Association for their collaboration which has helped to make this event possible. Were grateful for the renewed support of our charter on the us and europe and we look forward to continuing our Successful Partnership with them. As always an ironclad commitment to scholars and independents is at the center of Brookings Institution values and theviews expressed today are solely those of the speakers. Once again thank you for joining us this morning and now over to tom wright, director of the center on us and europe. Thank you so much for that introduction and thank you to all of you for joining us online this morning. Im hoping first, we thought it would be an eventful october, theres a lot of things to discuss and i dont think any of us would have gone into it with what we find ourselves this morning so to talk about the broader implications of the election and Foreign Policy in general , were fortunate to be joined by a terrific panel of my colleagues from brookings so ill briefly introduce them although im sure there are they are all knownto you. First is rebecca holston, chair and senior fellow of government study. And has done immense work on the election and us politics but the connection to Foreign Policy and americas role in the world. The owner help, my colleague epicenter for the United States and europe , and of course formally senior director from europe and russia in the white house during the trumpet ministrations, cd apollo on who is visiting fellow in the center for us and european Foreign Policy and also earlier this year in france on the views of the Democratic Candidates for president so welcome all and thanks for joining us this morning. We will spend the next 45 or 50 minutes and then we will turn it open for questions which you can relay in twitter. So i just guess my first question is on the news of the day which is clarified by saying of course best wishes to our president and to all of those affected by this latest outbreak and hoping for a speedy recovery. But gail, i wanted to start with you. It seems as if there is no precedent for an event or benefit like this,certainly so close to an election. It really creates additional uncertainty. Its also aglobal event of course because were talking about the commanderinchief. Of the United States and theres lots of things that happen on the International Scene over the next four weeks and beyond particularly the president is in anyway so we have everything cominginto the next , nationalsecurity , politics, personality and i was wondering if you give us your first sort of impressions of the gravity of this situation and also how slightly to feed into the election on november 3. Tom, your question anticipates my answer. It is all of the above or, i think the general sense in the United States is that we are filing one disruptive event on top of another. If this had happened against a calm backdrop, it would have been one thing. But for it to happen while the rubble was still bouncing on hmo to us president ial debate last week, while threats of interference in the us election had come to the balance are in play, because the president of the United States has put it in there plus the course the actual situation on the ground with the pandemic not under control. With the economy and economic recovery appearing to slow and perhaps being stall altogether. With racial conflict and partisan polarization. This is an unprecedented tuition. I am old enough, i was an adult in 1968 and ive long said that 1968 was the worst year in american politics and Society Since the end of the civil war. Im in the process of revising area it may well be the year were enduring is in fact the worse since the civil war. With regardto the election itself. This is at the very least a serious problem for the Trump Campaign to be added to the roster of Serious Problems including a decline in Public Opinion polls but that was already facing in the following very direct sense. Game plan was that president from wood barnstorming around the country for the last month of thecampaign. The is widely viewed as his campaigns most important assets to be deployed. The trump rallies are famous for their raucous enthusiasm which appears to have ripple effects through the portion of the electorate is inclined to vote for mister trump and it appears that for a substantial training of time, i would sayat least the next 10 days, the Trump Campaign will not be able to play its high card. And which will impede his prospects of coming from behind to catch joe biden and require this race. Thank you. If i could turn to you next, you worked with many of the people in that are currently serving in the white house. I just wonder media reports over the weekend just saw if not a general sense of chaos, just basically a degree of uncertainty and concern and concern about the continuity of government and theres been some conversation around mark meadows who i me know came after your son there but i was wondering if you could maybe give us your sort of calls about it being experienced by the official work on us foreignpolicy. Impacts to the president s likely to have on Us National Security and if any other reflections you have on these debates . I think what weve seen here is a risk of having a highly personalized presidency and this really fits into what bill has already said and i think we are in a very unusual time when President Trump has very vocally, publicly and frequently said he is the only person who matters in the system. And it would be very interesting to hear from bill again as we go around, im sure there will be questions about this not just about the continuity of governance but about the whole delegation of authority and the president s incapacitation. Of course weve had that before in the past but this is an administration in which the president doesnt like to delegate down authority. As i learned in the time that it came out clearly in the testimonies this time last year, nobodys really delegated, with authority to carry out the businesses that. That can easily be undermined in at least, anything that you say. About whether anything anybody says matters. And so i think that this this makes it very difficult for everybody else to goabout their jobs. Theres little confidence apart from i would say on many routine domestic issues to the us about National Security where people can press ahead with anything. So we just recently saw that a National Security adviser brian has gone up to meet with his other parts, nikolai partnership from russia, the head of the interNational Security council in eva and we get that many times when i was in the National Security council. And even then, that particular set of junctures which was early on in the term, the russians were questioning about how authoritative were our interactions. We moved along in arms control negotiations with the russians. It seems to have hit a crucial period but with a month out of the election with grit and uncertainty as to what happens in the press ahead on some of those Critical Issues like bill is suggesting, require a calm her this year. Its very hard to make breakthroughs on political issues like armscontrol which are very sensitive and detailed and complex negotiations but also very technical and you have so much chaos and uncertainty that i think this is just a metaphor also for our National Security. Its hard for anyone who is under the circumstances to get on with her job when its not clear how much authority that they actually have area. Thank you. Stevie, this is really the latest development not just in us politics for the rest of the world but also on the handling of the coronavirus. How it is being interpreted in france and in europe and what sort of main lens through which they see the United States at the moment. Youre on mute. Force of habit. Of course, europeans are looking with great interest whats happening to President Trump at the moment. Great interest, great concern i must say. All the leaders have sent their sentiments of support, a concern for thepresident and his family and of course , obviously on the public or the media you have some sarcastic comments as it is wellknown that the President Trump himself ended up in a position of doubt lets say regarding this virus so you had some coverage on this in the media in europe and france and germany and the uk obviously over the weekend but in many ways, it sort of reinforces this pretext european idea whats going on in the us is that you have a country that is adrift, just a month out of the president ial election. A pandemic is not under control. The tension, political tensions are extremely high as bill said. You have crisis on top of each other and theres a strong feeling since the beginning of this pandemic or lets say two months into it that the us is not handling the crisis very well. There was a poll from the Pew Research Center midseptember that showed that europeans considered when they were asked who had done a good job in dealing with covid, they were given pretty good marks for the eu around the, 60 percent. Even more for their own country, around 60 or 70 percent and quite high marks for china around for the present but the us notes mark was abysmal, around 10 to 15 percent in some of the main European Countries. Considering that only 10 or 15 percent of people considered that the us was doing a good job dealing with covid so really what this ultimate crisis would do is just reinforce this image and the same time, the europeans on isolation. Who else in the us can be their ally in dealing with this pandemic and at the moment, the giant is missing and its leadership is missing now more than ever, the president ial leadership is missing as well. So i was just thinking listening to bill to fiona that the only thing really missing from this confluence of crisis is an International Crisis and hopefully the us wont face that that would be a very weak moment, a very hard moment for the us at the time when power is concentrated around the president and the president is or could be incapacitated, at least its a worrying thought also for europeans. I know just to follow up obviously the Prime Minister Boris Johnson has had many highprofile instances of politicians in france contracting it. There is to politicians, one in office and one that was president of the Regional Council and then another important figure of the socialist party. He died also from covid early on in the process, but and then quite a few members of cabinet have been sick. Nobody else i know of or can remember. It was as sick as Forrest Johnson so its as close to the crisis of leadership as it was in the uk or as is going on in the us but of course, there was sort of a sense of relief that we have ayoung president at the moment. Thats a little bit of just luck but especially at the height of the epidemic in april and may it was a comforting sentiment for some french, but im sure it is extremely troubling to have the highest function in the land being hit to this degree and i just realized that i dont think europeans feel as much as americans do. Ive seen the coverage in the media here. It isextremely dramatic. I dont think it has gotten justice just yet. Just one followup for you and its really to do withthe mechanics of the election. So i mean, theres lots of different scenarios thatcould happen over the next few weeks. President trump coming back and campaigning potentially on the other hand he could be quite sick. All of that could have an impact on the election. If he has to withdraw from the race for who knows, but my question is is the us electoral system sort of set up adequately to deal with the spectrum of possibility and when people go to the polls november 3, in this respect is not in other respects of the normal issues that we talked about before thisweekend , is that likely to go smoothly or could we be facing a constitutional crisis with uncertainty about both the election and then the close election period . Is a very large question and me trying to subdivide for purposes of clarity. The president s ability to get back on the campaign trail will be dictated to some extent by health considerations. But as we saw yesterday, this is the president determined to project an aura of strength and invulnerability. And we had good reason to believe that he will go to considerable if not extraordinary lengths to do that and i expect that to continue. So unless he is really so ill that he must be confined to bed, his bedin the hospital , for an extended period, i would expect them to get back on the campaign trail even against the advice of his doctors. This is just a speculation but i think its consistent with his character and conduct over a long period of time. Question number two, what would happen if he became so ill that you were in effect forced to withdraw as the president ial candidate . Here theres no ambiguity area of the Republican Party and for that matter the Democratic Party both have in place very clear legal wreck mechanisms for replacing a national candidate, either the president or theVice President. In emergency circumstances. And i do not expect that to become a subject of contestation. We also have your legal and constitutional processes work temporarily transferring our from the president to the Vice President or people lower down in the chain of succession. If that were to become necessary. So the question that is most imponderable has to do with the conduct of the election itself and the aftermath on election day. The president s in the past as indicated that he distinguishes every sharply between the returns that are announced on the night of the election and the returns come in and are counted and announced after that. That could be a serious point of contestation and disruption because a record share of the votes in 2020 will be cast by mail and many of those mail in balance will not be counted in time to be reported on election night. So as a legal matter, i think the situation is clear. Those ballots to the extent those are not invalidated because of technical violations by individual voters will be counted. Whether the president will accept accounts is a different question but i dont think thats going to be a political question, not a legal question. I am a member of a number of organizations that have worked through a series of disaster scenarios. Now, the sort of scenario like a Nuclear Meltdown to which one attaches a small probability which it came to pass would be absolutely catastrophic. Time does not permit me to go through all of thosescenarios. Suffice to say both Political Parties have reviewed those scenarios in detail and it is within a realm of metaphysical possibility that one or more states would send competing slates of electors to participate in a final forum of president ial selection process. If that were to happen,all bets are off. Assuming we do have that, we have the president in relatively quick order after the election, id like turn then to the two obvious narratives for next year. Trump is reelected or binding is elected and to ask you all to sort of paint through what that will mean for International Politics but also particularly for the transatlantic relationship and lets start with trump and sort of i know hes less likely according to very much all of the data they are to be reelected but it is a possibility. Obviously he defied the odds last time so lets assume that he is elected. The owner, if i could start with you since you worked in the white house. And i know youve been thinking about this a bit but we talk about it separately but it seems to me theres two different broad scenarios with the trump second term. One is that its a little bit more like the last year. We see some continuity there. Its highly sort of personalized but its sort of similar to where we are right now. On the other is that its sort of it as an exponential progression from that that he , if it becomes hyper personalized and he may be double down on some of his instincts. Which is that sort of the right way to think about it or you have another way of conceptualizing it and what do you think the main implications from europe are, former National Security adviser john golden, he works closely and said he worries trump will pull out during the second term. How worried should we be and is there any prospect that this is not as bad as people want to expect from the transatlanticperspective . I think i would be certain in my last responsethat is hyper personalized already. This is why everything is so fragile. President trump is literally the wildcard in our political system right now. His health and what happens after that, all of the issues of worstcase scenarios that hit has laid out for us. I think everything will also hinge on well how well that second term comes about. Is it to even smaller margin in the Electoral College or a bigger margin in the Electoral College, is it because of those various things we havent caught in polling but at the same time, a huge vote against the president , even bigger than it was before and in the popular vote that will also the tone for the presidency. Irrespective of any outside influence or anything else is going on here you and if lets play that scenario out, the president is again swept through in the Electoral College and even larger vote against him in the popular vote, hell be on the defensive. Extremely defensive area more defensive than he already is. And so there are larger questions about who will be key people in the cabinet. How many people will stay on, who will leave. Especially on the National Security front. I mean, i can imagine a number of the president s closest associates will be put into these positions. Then the question also then will be again, will congress and the senate both be in the house of the republicans. Or will it will be a flip of the senate as well over to the democrats. So theres so many variables here but you, we could be playing this game for quite some time. Its a numbers game whos going to be in but lets just say then that you have the senate and congress in democratic hands and you can imagine the bruising fight is going to be for replacing cabinet officials who decide to retire and move on and do Something Else to get other people in place, particularly if those people closest to the president dont have a National Security and Foreign Policy credentials at some of the others do more recently i do think a lot of the people who are already there will stay. Some in the white house of the west wing but also in the Deputy Assistant levels throughout the agencies. We should be grateful for people stayingon under quite difficult circumstances. The problem of course is have been in acting. I dont know enough about how this could play out but how long can people stay in acting capacities when you put people beneath them as well and that role reduces the ability to really do things getting back to what i said before when you delegate authority its difficult for you to do your job and to interact with interlock leaders and you wonder whos below you. Everyone speaking on his behalf and on behalf of the country. On the specific questions you asked about nato , i think we can see a lot of the decisionmaking is driven by disputes all with other countries and whats going on with nato is really the question about two percent of gdp. As a result of covid19 and the large scale recession were seeing on a global scale a lot of countries gps will have fallen. If defense spending stays consistent there will be already a two percent delay or close to that so that might be the upside. I think there will be a huge debate here and it will be interesting to see what you think because will already have britain telling out of brexit and figuring out how to double down on nato and also questions about with the perception of threat. Should we be doing more with pandemic, should nato be doing more with pandemic and how do we tackle russia . We have so many things where theres contention. We have also the question about europe and will europe buildup its own defense capability. And also the close relationship with the uk, i can see sadly more room for divisiveness on nato rather than less and if things fall apart, weve already seen it unfold. And the president will also i think being very defensive on the homefront the less interested in having a kind of a broaderstrategic approach for broad. One area where there is a big crisis, the United States is always pretty critical in helping to manage these fronts including the United States and russia that is trying to manage and in the past is managing this dispute that we now see the United States is missing in action. We didnt have to be and a year or so ago moved verymuch in the thick of the action but now , we see turkey and russia facing off and were learning some of the developers that have happened in syria. Theres already an example of what can happen when the United States isnt fully engaged and to be honest i be worried about us getting engaged because we also showed a propensity in different conflicts to pick sides as the role of a neutralarbiter and given the large debt diaspora here , the president s obsession with Kim Kardashian whos been tweeting, shes one of the most famous names in the United States culture, we had such a large armenian diaspora, that is not a good sign for playing a mutual role here in which we have previously and you can already see the consequences of those being missing in action and im not sure in this case that europe will be able to take it up but france alsohas a similar situation witharmenia , correct . Yes, theres a large armenian asked laura. If we could turn to you on this, we have spoken about this before, i think the feeling in europe is from is likely to be reelected and the american delegation came to think that it was either some sort of, biden would win but the europeans uniformly just being almost maybe it was resigned to or im not sure what but they assumed that because of the economy, it would recover where the democratic primary was an theres a different point now that sort of trying to go back sort of add a little on the front europeans are thinking that trumps second term and how would they be likely to react once the shock sort of war off of those surprising results. With a conclude the us economy be changed and this is the end to the Transatlantic Alliance for what they as macron did assume that trumps not ideal but we can work with him and its not too different or the us has been normally, could you walk us through maybe just those policy planners and what those leaders would be thinking in 6 to 8 months time if there is a second term of President Trump . I think the europeans by and large upland so maybe the convention, and maybe of it after that, its in the majority that trump was likely to be reelected. Only recently have i started to see repeated experts saying repeatedly yes, joe biden has been ahead in the polls in a substantial margin so that possibility of a Biden Administration but its as europeans want to prepare themselves for a Second Trump Administration. They want to prepare themselves psychologically but to what i can see theyre not preparing very much in terms of actually anticipating the type of policy that could be in place for the type of initiative i could be put in place a Second Trump Administration and part of the reason is that i think after 4 years the europeans will havent found a remedy to trump a way to deal with donald trump. And fiona said it, then you said, because trumps Foreign Policy is so personal, it is anathema to europeans and it is something that most european institutions, european leaders and even personalize president ial assistance has trouble dealing with because i have such a strong administrative, bureaucratic state behind it deals with a lot of policy decisions and they are then taking back the past few years by the fact that engaging with you know, the regular channels of the american administrative states as sometimes produced sub optimal reasons so if it can be contradicted from when weight one day to the other by decision from the white house. So they still havent found the formula and the other example of this is that president macron has tried to have a personal relationship with the president and has tried to sort of personalize politics. But once again, it has led to this proximity has led to major policy results either. So if a second term is to be imagined, i think first europeans will try to think whether trump, President Trump would feel vindicated by a second wind and in that case as fiona pointed out whether he would be able to just go one step further, the on some of his own instincts. On trade, continuing or increasing trade pressures on the eu. Continuing to retweet retreat from global responsibilities, questions around nato obviously and the other elements that their thinking about is that they know that donald trump is tactical. Maybe the way to engage him would be to engage in on specific issues and to offer you know, to all offer for him to reach big deals or any sort of agreement that would put him in a good political life. Tactically, because it doesnt have to be rooted in a grand strategy. And in that case maybe the europeans have some elements they can play with once again on the trade front. But overall, just to finish, i think theres a big question that combines right now in the long term which is there is a question in european mines today on whether trumps covid diagnosis will ever change his mind on the way to deal with globally and collectively with this issue. And europeans as much as many other countries have been waiting for us leadership, at least us participation on collective efforts on producing a vaccine, on distributing treatment, on working together on this issue. The us has been strong, and has helped more than 120 countries on a bilateral level during this crisis that has failed to engage collectively both in multilateral organizations but also in sort of more adult initiatives. So that would be the big question for europeans. Ever change and can he change based on personal experience, as is mentioned in his videos , he said Something Like i have gone to school with this , i have learned things and i will go back on this and discuss this so maybe thats the case and it will be, it will give europeans some hope. Just to jump in there,will go to bill in a second. That sort of happened to Boris Johnson. He was cavalier about it, joked about continuing to shake hands and afterwards was quite chaste and but i dont see that happening with trump. Not like he didnt make those remarks which i thought were a bit odd and then within hours he went out in a van with the secret service in a very dangerous environment to his secret Service Agents to wait at the crowd and i think that is to me, i mean, thats a pretty significant episode because it shows how irresponsible hes been internationally andnationally on this. Its no different and how irresponsible he is in his own health is at risk and so this is just blank in terms of his approach to its and i think to me it makes it pretty worried. I dont think, i think you may use it as a talking points ill be very surprised. I think most people like the Prime Minister, you could have had changed the im not sure with him but bill, i know baculovirus but maybe a little bit of that also, looking ahead to a second term , what you think that trumps term would look like on Foreign Policy and is it sort of a real moment . People have described as the definitive and to the post war us, International Order because of his opposition to it. Is that where were headed . No tom, i dont think itis overwrought. That is the way i see the states. It was one thing to elect mister trump in 2016. There was a widespread sent of discontent with the pace of the economic recovery. Many portions of the country felt entirely unseen and unheard by the previous administration. And mister trump was a protest candidate. A classic protest candidate who parlayed a Strong Campaign and an outsiders disruptive message into the narrowest narrowest possible victory. The American People now have four years to experience rectally the consequences of this kind of governance. If they were to ratify it by giving mister trump asecond term , i would conclude that the america for nearly 3 4 of a century has changed fundamentally and i would be amazed if people around the world did not draw the same conclusions. I believe we will have to shift. In the governments and people around the world would be blind not to make an intellectual shift. And to especially in europe, rethink how can do the best for it self in the absence of the United States that it can depend on. And let us remember, thats a depend on the United States ultimately, is to depend on the American People. It is to depend on the understanding of the people that the politics is to be contested. And not at one end of the goal or the other. And ratifying victory for mr. Trump under these circumstances i think would lead straight to the conclusion that the American People are more unstable and less reliable in their judgment in the security of national and international affairs. What would a second trump term look like. My bet is on more of the same. My reason for saying that is very simple. As the owner has insisted, this is a highly personalized administration for the formal structures of the decisionmaking are much weaker. Add that to your premise column, the mr. Trump is unlikely to fundamentally change his personality. So give up personality driven administration, and a personality that does not change, why would we expect anything else except more than the same. That would be my prediction. And i do not say that welcoming it. Not the slightest. Thank you bill. I will turn back and look at biden. You spent quite a bit of time following the democratic primary Mother Campaign trails including Vice President biden. Thank you so safe to say at the time, it looks like the front runner. Then he wrote a book about how the democrats see the world and with the implications of the election might be. In terms of that sort of democratic worldview. Could you give us your impression of what you think it in the Biden Administration would look like. In particular in europe. And one would expect perhaps, it would be widely welcomed. But after that initial sort of welcome presence of relief. The Trump Administration, what are some of the elements including complications that might arise over the next few years. Will there be concerns about the government or the europeans will have. While the problems being one of the main areas of opportunity be. Yes indeed. I sort of completely misjudged joe biden. I remember tom, telling you less than two weeks before south carolina, i had just seen joe biden during his speech. Into a room that was emptying out and i was telling you this guy is done. This is over. And then two weeks later, in a major win in south carolina. And obviously went on to become the nominee. A part of the reason i completely misjudged i was i was impressed by the progressive ways. In a large part of the electorate in the candidate, the ideological print so probably closer to european politicians than they are to american politicians that then build coalition and find the central gravity rather than push ideological ideas. I think that strengthen the Democratic Party at this juncture is to have both. If both progressive ideology go elements on the ground. It and feeding the ideas in the views of the people who want to be engaged for a reason. But then they sort of rallied around these candidates that can emulate all of this. Because he can everybody in same time. And he is able to as you said, be a bridge between sort of the more traditional Democratic Party and the younger progressive party. So that raises a big question in my mind regarding, will joe biden be transformational candidate. Wilkie bring progressive ideas to his Foreign Policy. But is also coming into context as we mentioned. This multiple era of crisis mostly in internal but the systemic crisis, the racial crisis. It also the Climate Crisis. All at the same moment. And which will wake very heavily in the capacity to do policy. So the other big question is will Biden Administration be inward looking or will it be able to do that but says he wants to do. Which is restore u. S. Theres always a caveat. Is that most of his stars and home. You have to start by rebuilding americas strength and home to rebuild credibility in the world stage freedom i think its an articulation of them are looking and trying to restore the leadership that will created tension but also of the car will be the 31st europe at peace in office. I would say i would identify three main points that are of high interest for partners around the globe. The 31st point is answering your question of the competition of china. That is more than likely than that the u. S. China competition will remain at the framework for policy in the foreseeable future. In the past implications both because the u. S. Once again was to restore the strength so a lot of investment and joe biden talks about investing in resistance training and investing in infrastructure. And also green energy and transitioning an investment. A base also has implications for relationship to in particular to sort of confront the models. The authoritarian model. China versus the u. S. In which case one of the priorities provided in his administration will also be to strengthen democracy at home. That has been to say the least hurt by the last few years in this position in this country as well as decisions to strengthen democracy will be a core issue. The last two points there also priorities one has dialogue which lies in the partners. Divided has talked repeatedly about restoring alliances. He hopes to restore these alliances also to counter the influence of authoritarians around the world. And suggested that he would have a summit or of democracy and next year really set some form of acknowledgment of like minded in some form. I think it is difficult for the next few months should he be elected. Nonetheless point is that because you have this influence of priority looking inward. In competition with china. I thank you so going to be a huge priority given to Economic Issues. Simmons focusing on innovation and cyber issues and trade. Focusing on climate. Actions in all of this meaning that these are the areas where we can compete and invest but also profitable at home. And this will reduce the interest for the transitional intervention as we can imagine the continuation on this front. Since the obama administration. Of literary intervention. Which is just as good. Let us we talk about the issues, we can then find a partner in the heat you target that is sort of the priority of the european commission. The priority of any your European Countries prayed and i feel more at peace with the Economic Issues and the geopolitical issues. In some common interest in working on Climate Action on cyber issues. Etc. An overall, i think the people are expecting and simpler america. The New York Times talked about emphases prayed for joe biden. But he will face a world that has grown angrier and more resentful and might not be so ready to see such a partner returned to the white house. Going to be a lot of work ahead. Thank you. Going to go to audience questions. Before we do, could you give us a brief analysis of what you think of Biden Administration will be like. Sort of them particularly in terms of what we might not expect. Some of the developments that might be sort of surprising to the people. Actually tom, i expect the unexpected. And i say that because joe biden is the ultimate traditionalist targeting his entire political personality has been formed over a period of five decades in public life. Around the source of arrangement around the post world war. My view is that he will try to shore up the architecture of what is most familiar with while pushing forward on some of the new Transit National issues. So think obviously, there will be there will be a renewed focus perhaps greater than before on climate issues. Interviewed in the international context. I think theres likely to be a renewed emphasis on international and transnational corporations on health issues. I think it will be a certain amount of newness but it will be said in the same old bottles, the new wine. Most of the people around biden it will likely adopt the senior positions in his administrations are by and traditionalists. They believe in the postwar order not because it is perfectly because it was preferable to all of the available alternatives. I would expect a Biden Administration to be tougher in china than bidens own history would suggest simply because the circumstances have changed. But unlike the Current Administration i would expect him to work very hard to construct a coalition to confront china and the European Union i think would be Partner Number One in the construction of that coalition. And partner number two would be the democracies in east asia and pacific. So policy innovation i thank you so more to be expected on the chinese front than on any other. Thank you bill. Its my own take a sort of agree with that but i think if you look at what is interesting to me within the biden world. Is actually sort of an interesting debate going on. International order and alliances but also some significantly in differences. I find it interesting, to not just have biden versus trump but it will be different. As biden will be different. So maybe we will sort of the synthesis between the two. I suspect we may see once the election is over, some of those debates coming to the floor. De beauvoir right now. Just by being in favor of alliances, biden is very different than trump. Theres lots of different ways. We will see. Did you want to come back in. No. Except to say just to reemphasize that the obama Biden Administration was the end of presided over the end of the old confidence the chinese economic integration would give china incentives to play but the Global Economics rules and would lead to a progressive liberalization. Nobody believes that anymore. Not in the Democratic Party. And on in the Republican Party. So that purse respect. It will not be the third obama term. Its not possible. Theater, your take on the Biden Administration. In the Trump Administration excluding the approach whether its in the National Security strategy, the National Defense strategy or any of the things that youre working on. What you think about the continuity there. Our do you think it will be sort of a sharp contrast with the Trump Administration. Thank you. Whitsomebody asked me why i kept looking at my window. This is segment what i want to say because the Election Company is outside of my window unannounced. [laughter]. This gets to the point, an unexpected change comes along target i had no i did they would do this morning. It is looking nervously in case something comes to the window. So if im checking out my window, i apologize everybody. What i do want to stress here is justice bill emphasized that biden and obama administration, the Biden Obama Administration providing over the end really be confidence for the assumption that china would adapt to the kind of the larger international environment. If we cant go back. So what worries me and im sure it worries a lot of people but people talking about going back. And very eloquently, it was said, it was already moving on under the obama administration. And in some respects, some of the Foreign Policy posturing now that we see at home here in the United States is the reaction to the obama would be leaving from behind. Lets see, you and any others, have analready written come thes already a feeling that they moved on. It wasnt just because they moved on and pivoted to asia. That they were rethinking the whole u. S. Division. With a lot more reluctance to be involved in the middle east. A lot more reluctance in all kinds of places. And ive already mentioned which more americans havent thought about since 1994 when the ceasefire was happening. So theres all kinds of issues behind the scenes. The United States work managing in terms of conflicts. The whole ecosystem in interNational Security is changed now. China has risen. So just rising anymore. As a dominant player. In the asia and Indo Pacific Region which have seen with china and india. On very fragile waters. We know the chinese business. Fact that its killed several indian soldiers should be a wakeup call. The china will not necessarily continue to manage things as it has before. Were going to be can fronted with a whole series of issues. Climate change is inescapable. He fires burning from california to siberia. Everything that we know that is changed. And again, the whole global art is changing. There is no back to go back to. What worries me a little bit about the biden is saying about its been kind of conventional. We are in uncharted territory. The pandemic should certainly be coming to everybodys minds. And i do think that gives us some opportunity however to work with our allies. There are things that i help in terms of the oh Biden Administration but that will try to keep in of appeared somewhat, some very good assistant secretaries and the government. I really hope there will be a change of personnel. Because theres an incredible amount of people who abstain on and really try to keep the ship steady and running. There should be commended for their actions, not to condemn in the last thing with that we needed is a threshing. You have to remember that the u. S. Officials and the vast majority like the rest of the United States reflect the composition of the population across all of the governments state and local as well as theres a lot of military veterans. Senior executive service which tends to be white or male and kind of continuity from the past. But were in the business of trying to revitalize the u. S. Federal government at this point. We need to see our Public Servants not just as an elected and bureaucratic quite a mouthful. Represent them into the best of the United States. We can get back to affirming the hard work on the behalf of the country rated National Security council when i was at the office and still engaging. The recent visit to geneva. And their one of a long sequence with nikolai and his team. I do think they should come not just of moving ahead on starts. So theres some stretches out there, set up with governments. The relationships that would be established with european we also need i think assessment of some of those relationships than just become sort of the anchor with the relationship between the president. So theres a lot to do. But i would just say, im health is not just a threshing of all personnel. Take a long hard look of those people who have been there. Public servants. They could be useful to moving ahead with the National Security issues. It. Thank you. So now will turn to the audience questions. We only have about ten minutes. Its what we are supposed to do is to direct a couple of questions for members of the audience to each of you. And if you can all be relatively brief in your answers. Then we can get through them. So two questions here. One from randy ellis who s what about global trust after the trump presidency. Another one, good europeans develop an independent alliance if trump withdrawals the u. S. Nato. In both of those i think probably are regarding powers in terms of European Defense and also Biden Administration might need to do. There is any, while these are very open questions. The 31st question if i remember correctly is what to do to regain trust. Look at the u. S. Do probably it depends on who youre asking. Im going to try to answer as a european. And then as a frenchwoman. The minimum of the minimum would be just to reengage and work proactively. Of not working together and to be in competition with each other. We all remember the President Trump famous sentence, the e. U. Is worse than china. Of its own trade policy but in any ways it has profoundly disrupted euro American Relations along the lines that are not working together. Theres also been a strong position on the economy competition between the two types of the idea that this was healthy competition. To make aria economies economies and markets better unit and i competition to manipulate the other and went over the other. So the idea of returning to sort of a win when corporation at the minimum of engaging in conversation and dialogue would be important for me to theres a specification that maybe i want to underline which is the idea that has been going on now for years. There is a very strong conscious in europe of the importance of the Climate Crisis. In the idea that the u. S. Has been missing in action, at least its an agreement with donald trump into power. Its a very unsettling for the europeans who are looking at this crisis is the sort of covid19 crisis. Just because the effects will be lingering for decades. Because this devastation will be infinitely more important for you just because the collective, theres only one way of this crisis. At least to manage as much as we can during this crisis which is connected answer. So the best way to go towards for the u. S. To reengage is to take such an important crisis to really work to work with the partner on this. In the second point, its what about the European Defense alliances. Trump in the u. S. Nato. I think this is a twopart. Too far down the line and were not there yet. So when they talked about the braindead nato people considered that he was talking about the end of nato. What would he was really talking about was nato was moving around without its head. Meaning without any leadership. Leadership should come for more than and the u. S. Should be fully required which means that even with nato, you have tensions between Member States including turkey in any Member States. An including france. For the u. S. Not only opinions but leadership weights would be extremely valuable. This may be the 31st thing that your needs at this point is sort of a re engagement on what do we do with nato. Dewey also work and utilize nato to deal with more global challenges including pandemics and the future Climate Crisis but also what do we do with the security environments for europe. In general, the competition with china. There are any topics to discuss. And if this was to not be productive to disappear. I think that europe also by france will also continue the conversations on at least some Strategic Organization for europe to build. Hopefully, cooperation with nato. Do have started to prepare from its europe american ally. I have two questions for you as well. So if you could followup. Just address these loans. The 31st one is on turkey. Its appropriate to guess. Where are these turkey u. S. Relations headed. Either under biden or if trump. Over the last few years. Although trump has confronted quite frequently, the u. S. Turkey relationships going. Where are they going in the second question is from a person who asked without the coronations, how do we sustain this is the international hector. There are those maybe including the president himself and thinks the u. S. And leisure, is probably tied it down as it sort of a plausible worldview. Thirtyfirst of all, hopefully people with the wood chipper problem. You probably cant hear it. The issue about leadership, and influence correct. If you have, you only have the ability to lead if you have influence. And you dont get influence, will its done as teamwork working together. If we look at countries dont have any alliances like russia for example. For putin. Any alliances, the kind of really with conflict of other countries that want to do something for them. Thats really arent exactly what alliances are. Which is why the countries are trying to band together. Without the allies, not just europe but australia, new zealand, japan, india, kind of relationships and developing globally. The United States will be more of the kind of trade figure. As a referred to. When President Trump said that europe is worse than china, he was meaning about trading for any and sing unions as a competitor. In a competitor that ought to be rolling over, giving the United States preferences and trades because the United States was in charge of its protection. Really this got to the issue of nato. Its almost like kind of a protection scheme. In the protections of the mutual protections. All of us working together after world war ii. In doing cold war. President trump was talking about it in different times that i heard in all of us heard. More like the end of the roman empire. With the romans would show up. That was really not have nato was so there really gets to the point about what to do with nato. We get back to the thought of the collective defense. Kind of mutual cooperation on bigger problems of the day. And that will let us start moving ahead. The difficulty will be try to come up with a new vision. And when you think about 2010, when we really exercised with nato, given everything that we have talked about today, the environment of that position as well. And the threats, for different than what they were after world war ii or the cold war. Theyre just not in the form of foreign countries. Their global pandemics, and going to be the issue of climate change. Migration. And parts of europe and it might be an enhanced a bootabl. Muchy and other things as well. Inspector general of nato has actually been very good at leadership. In turkey, the relationship is become an acute confusing this term. Just the relationship between trump at the state. Theres still still other relationships but while turkey is unveiled for lunch about its european and that arena. And n, jumping into and taking sides here in a way. 1994 turkey was instrumental in bringing russia the ceasefire. In between others as well. Is now playing a much more divisive intervention role which is between turkey boxing up its muscle but creating all kinds of other people in Eastern Mediterranean and energy flowing out with israel. And having a Close Partnership with israel. We also are on the u. S. Turkey relationships. And stop fixed just by having the two guys in the top sitting down to try to work it out. All what we have seen is also between pressure and the middle east peace talks. And all kinds of other things that we have discussed. We need to have a structure. I think the only way to put the turkey u. S. Relationships as well as the turkish european relationships in that context, the two divisive with the e. U. But any of the european including trump and germany and other countries. And with like britain where the british turkish relationships was a bit more of what you can have a discussion between the two. So, not the big picture, but trying to have these in parts and structures. On the problemsolving rather than coming up with a doctrine. Thank you. They were. Much out of time. But i do have one question and it comes from and this will be the final question parking comes from derek mitchell. In asking how would you a second term scenario in the event the democrats in a combination. One that is of course possible. It and could you give any kind of Closing Remarks to that. It. Because this is a panel on Foreign Policy. Ohmic the obvious point. That is that the president s power is in the conduct of Foreign Policy. Unless there is the need to submit a formal treaty to the senate for ratification or unless a particular Foreign Policy and venture implicates and requires appropriations in order to sustain it. And of course even there, President Trump has demonstrated that he believes the executive has authority to shift the funds around within the budgets between budgets freddies been able to get away with is a far. And in his second term he would continue that. So i think the Democratic Senate would not particularly do that with the policy. Thirtyfirst of all, european strategic autonomy is a meaningless phrase unless germany is willing. And that is the pivot around which the idea of a europe defense would defend itself. And i am waiting for some serious german thinking on that question. Which i have not seen very long time. Including thought number two. Fdr in the 1930s saw in america thats isolated democracy was in america that was endangered democracy. That was the ultimate source of his engagement on the side of european democracies. He was right then and that is still correct today. United states and some selfinterest must restore it standing as a leader of the worlds democracies. I am encouraged by the fact that former Vice President biden from the earliest days of this campaign has gone to that principle quite firmly. And i hope very much he is elected, he will carry it through. Bill, all of you, thank you so much for joining in and joining us this morning. The talks have been interesting and timely. And i think you all for opening the proceedings and and for sponsoring todays event. We very much look forward to engaging this in the future and thank you for joining us today on youtube, and online and we look forward to our next conversation with that we are adjourned. I honestly would tell you that i dont think that when the dust settles in the selection that it will be whether america becomes more republican a more democratic. Or liberal or conservative or rent more redde for blue. Joyce and whether america remains america. And as joe biden has said, from the moment he entered. It is about the soul of our nation. Who we are. What we stand for. And maybe most importantly, we want to be. Watch adVice President ial debate between Vice President mike pence and senator, harris. Life wednesday at 9 00 p. M. Eastern from the university of utah in salt lake city. Watch the debate live on cspan. Listen live in the cspan radio app. And go to cspan. Org debate. For live on demand streaming cspans debate coverage. Theres also a link to each debate questionandanswer. To see social media feeds on debate happenings, the reaction watch our archival president ial debate from the cspans library. Today her campaign 2020 coverage includes a debate between massachusetts democratic senator and his republican challenger oconnor. That is live from boston at 7 0. Here on cspan2. The president s, available in paperback, hardcover and ebook on Public Affairs Party Presents biographies of every president insider conversation with noted historians about the leadership skills that make for a successful presidency. As americans go to the polls next month, to decide who should lead our country. This collection offers perspective into the lives and events that forged these president s leadership style. To learn more about our president and the books featured historian, visit cspan. Org the president credit and order your copy today. Wherever books are sold. As the Supreme Court began his new term today, chief Justice John Roberts paid tribute to the late Justice Ruth Bader ginsburg who died last month at the age of 827. Here is what he had to say. I note that memorial has been elected and that door of our courtroom and bench. To signify warning for Justice Ruth Bader ginsburg who died on
comparemela.com © 2020. All Rights Reserved.