Transcripts For CSPAN2 A.J. Baime Dewey Defeats Truman 20240712

Have them here virtually from his home and we are going to talk about his new book about the 1948 election. Were going back 72 years another Election Year. You will be amazed at how it sounds the same in some ways but in some ways very different. The difference is the politicians were all younger than they are today so thats one big difference but a. J. Take it away and tell us about the overview of the book and which is a very good. By the way. Thank you. I like to say couple things first rate thank you so much for having me pay the Commonwealth Club is a wonderful place to be at here we are with a lot of people going through a lot of pain and suffering. Im just reminded why he fell in love with reading when i was six years old. Books can really transport you to another time and place and during all of this is really been a blessing. Regarding my last time with you id started this book back in 2017 when i talked about the accidental president and the book came out during the 2020 election cycle. This is a book about the 1948 election that will give me an opportunity to talk about things that matter but two things happened that i didnt expect. One was during research i found a whole bunch of material that i didnt really expect to find it secondly i was inspired in such a way that it began to feel like there was writing a book that everything i was writing about was no longer taking place in 1948 was taking place now so i want to show you a few pictures to give you an idea of what im talking about. 1948 the election played out on the Television Machine and what youre looking at is a the picture of the first Election Night broadcast on pbs pbs. Here we are an new kind of media that will change the way elections take ways and of course today we have social media doing the exact same thing. Heres an image that is going to startle you. I hope it startles you 1948 there was a massive surge in White Nationalism in the United States. This is charlottesville. In 1948 there was a massive wave of violence against africanamericans and the picture youre looking at a man named Isaac Woodard four hours after he was released and honorably discharged from the United States army. He had served in world war ii. In an altercation with a white lace officer and he was blinded. Here you see him being escorted by joe lewis the heavyweight fighter and orson wells got fired from his radio show for speaking out about whether it. The whole story of what happened to him became politicized and became part of the political conversation in a way that we are feeling the same way now with george floyd. The alger hiss story breaks during the 1948 election and suddenly theres so much talk in washington and people all over the country trying to figure out is there a communist conspiracy infiltrating washington . What is the fact and what is the Conspiracy Theory . These were the conversations conversation they were having in washington and all over the country certainly that is relevant today. To relevant. Then we have the fbi on the trail of the major president ial political candidates with regards to possible russian conspiracy. Heres Henry Wallace the chip fastening picture by the way. I thought i would look at this picture forever. But wallace is a stooge for the kremlin in moscow. Again this was the conversation in 1948 and certainly thats relevant today. This is the berlin airlift so during the 1940 election cycle truman launches the berlin airlift. Is not an applestoapples comparison but during the election cycle and 48 we were nose to nose with the soviets on the brink of world war iii. Fear and anxiety really gripped the country and thats happening in our election cycle now for completely different reason and thats exactly the reason why im talking to you from my Basement Office and not on the stage. A couple more to go. This is one picture that should not be relevant today and we should cross their fingers and toes that remains that way. During the 1948 election cycle Nuclear Bombs are literally going off as we are testing larger and larger weapons. Ultimately we get to harry truman. One last point before i Start Talking about the candidacy of 48 i want to give you one quote from the most surprising document i found through all my years of research that this is the Republican National Committee Memorandum written november 15, the 247 so exactly year before the 48 election. Im going to read one sentence for the United States of america is fair game for moscow and has been for years. As far as anyone is willing to see the year 1948 will be the year in which soviet russia will do everything in his power to influence the election here. Certainly that feels familiar. Now im going to give you brief introduction of the candidates and their conversational begin to what i really wanted to do in this book is follow all four candidates through their campaign in real time to weed them out so the reader can experience what america was experienced and also the candidates themselves. All leading up to the climactic moment on november 2, 1948. Heres Henry Wallace. Wallace was an extraordinary candidate who won but this story is fascinating to wallace was the one candidate or breaks away from the democrats in said hey we have this new cold war and its not the soviets fall. Its Harry Trumans fault and he says theres only one man in this country who can stop world war iii and thats me. He becomes a candidate of protest and to me hes the beginning of an antiestablishment movement that goes right through the 1950s and 60s. You can sample a tear thats pete seager singing and we certainly have heard a lot from him. Wallace is politics were so controversial when he goes to campaign in the south he says i will not speak in any call for an africanamerican or caucasian american cannot sit next to each other but i will not stay in a hotel where an africanamerican is not allowed. There are riots in the stabbing and hes pelted with tomatoes. Its a very Brave Campaign that a run. Even as Vice President going through the entrance to a church he got into a physical operation with the police and he was a u. S. Senator. You can actually see this picture and its amazing to think there were times during those when they would tackle them and throw eggs at him and say i want some evidence that im in the United States of america. Strom thurmond, during the 1940 election eight election truman was the first president ial candidate to go after the africanamerican vote. Segregates the military because the first president to address the naacp and the first president to hold a Campaign Rally in harlem to black america. Not everybody is happy about this. Strom thurmond to work euro the governor of North Carolina launches this need dixie crat party. This is their National Convention in which he is nominated to run for president im going to give you one brief quote of 40 sacks police in this moment. On this night he says i want to tell you ladies and gentlemen there arent enough troops in the army to force the southern people to break down segregation and admit that they and to her swimming pools in theaters and into our homes and our churches. He won four state on the form of pro segregation White Supremacy and finally thomas dewey, everybody believed he was about to become the first republicans present 16 years. Well talk about it quite a bit so i want samba to now except for this. This is the one time been two candidates made during the election cycle and harry truman leans over and says tom when you move into the white house do something about that. There were world issues with the white house. The white house was literally crumbling. And back to truman we are going to talk a lot about him. Why dont we start our conversation and i hope that was useful. Thats great. If we can put up the pictures and we can start with dewey. Thomas dewey new york governor, young in his mid40s when he was running. He had already been governor before. He did what giuliani did but he took the road to public halls in which giuliani tried to do which is to be attorney general, when cases and then go on either to in this case to new york governor for a while and i know that giuliani played that card because when he was attorney general he came to speak and he made very clear he was going to play exactly the same political way because giuliani had his eye on the white house as everyone knows. In any case thomas dewey is quite a character and he had been an attack dog earlier on when he ran anywhere in a very Different Campaign so maybe talk a little bit about that won by 30 points or Something Like that at the beginning of the campaign. To me i was very fascinated by at that he was going to be a byproduct of the story and a minor character. Hes very much a major character of the story that i wrote because the way that he came up into prominence was so extraordinary. He is from small town comes out of nowhere and michigan comes down and becomes a young prosecutor in new york city and finds himself on this trail really a prosecutor really a lawyer and he becomes this figure who takes down the mophie in the 1930s during the depression when there was a lot of mophie around. He became famous as a prosecutor how does that happen that in two different abc was portrayed by hopper bogart on the big screen. People say thomas dewey could successfully prosecute and thats how i came up. When 1940 came he nrd been, this was his third president ial candidate because he had been the guy that everybody said all the way back to 1940 you are the future of the Republican Party. By the time 1940 he comes he decides hes not going to run. He ran in 1944 and a loss. He came closer to defeating fc or that anybody did but he felt in his heart he didnt want to suffer through losing a president ial election twice. He had to be convinced to run so the story becomes very. Obviously everyone thought and its very clear everyone thought about the media and all the newspapers predicted that he was going to win. Not a single newspaper. That truman was going to win. The media was on his side in they were wondering why they got it all wrong just like the media has done in the 2016 election. How did we get that wrong and polls are just starting and i think theres another element of influence. Im sure they have polls before that but they became much more influential. Just as media feels big to us right now that time the fact that radio was becoming ubiquitous the communication industry was ramping up the pollsters were extraordinarily powerful and one of them actually wrote, he said im not going to happen at any more. Why spend the money on the campaign of do we is going to win and i can tell you there weres two scenes for me writing about dewey that were so touching and the one is where on Election Night, now i will go back. The night he holds his final Campaign Rally in Madison Square garden he gets on the train afterwards to take a train to albany to the Governors Mansion these so sure hes going to win if you hold an impromptu meeting with all these reporters covering his campaign for months and he tells them who is going to be in his cabinet and he says you cant tell anybody. Theres going to be a secretary of treasury because he was sure he was going to win. The other scene that i can remember i was so touching to me was on Election Night is the night sweet with his family and friends. Tonight isnt going as planned and he locked himself in a room with a legal pad by himself and turns on the radio all might long when he realizes whats about to happen to him. A solitary man on that edge. He definitely left his mark anyway on the Republican Party. Very affluent chill and he was a progressive republican. Another element that i felt was very them mock a billion move that you talk about the chairman does as the republicans at their convention they picked a dewey but it was a tight race and there were a few progressive Teddy Roosevelt type republicans and then passed who was the son of president taft. He he was the leader of the conservatives and a lot of people thought he should be the nominee so it was very close. The conservative republicans were in control of the congress so what truman did was the platforms between deweys platform and trumans platform are almost identical right . That is right. He put a pin in this by calling congress back to try to enact a deweys platform. We are going to talk about the democratic National Convention and i think well show a piece of video. We welcome back and talk about what he said but you raise an interesting point coming out of world war ii there was a line in the sand and everyone understood the election was going to be the line of up past and the present. What school party was going to be in charge and imprint their vision on America American im both Political Parties coming out of world war ii had to figure out who they werent what they stood for in their pub and had an interesting situation because they had a rivalry within the party. It was the conservative faction that was headed up by robert taft the republican on capitol hill and dewey was a liberal. He was a liberal because he had been raised to think that Teddy Roosevelt was the definition of the republicans party. Maybe even through the primaries , the oregon primaries, fascinating story. Do we as the firmware and all of a sudden hes about to lose. All of a sudden they are neckandneck and the primary will decided and they have the first ever broadcast radio president ial debate was kind of neat because you can look it up and watch it and listen to it on youtube today. There was only one question should communism be outlawed in dewey being a prosecutor won the nomination. That is how it happened but a lot of republicans were very uncomfortable with this platform because a lot of that agreed with harry truman. We welcome back to harry chairmans maneuver against that but anyway they both did the same thing. They did tours everywhere and they were crossing each others paths and chairman had a very good joke about that. But dewey was following him everywhere. You want to tell that joke . At the end of the campaign he it came down to this amazing onetwo punch where they visited the same five cities each of them one at a the chicago, cleveland boston and new york and by that i mean for states. You are in one of those, do we have followed truman throughout the country and it turned out to be the first daughter margarets favorite speech of the campaign where truman starts cracking these jokes and he does it on Live National radio totally offthecuff makes up this trip like theres this guy following me everywhere i go and hes following me and theres one place is not going to follow me in the crowd goes crazy. The true Library Web Site is a great resource because you can go there and you can actually listen to the speeches. They are all up on the web site and its a lot of fun to visit them. Saying it brings him alive. Its interesting to see the old pictures but in the old pictures they dont look the same as politicians do today and they dont act the same and they look so young right now. Anyway one little personal note about dewey at the end of the book when you bring everybody up to date on the app like of different people. You mentioned do a win he lost he returns to the Governors Mansion in new york and was there for another six years and then went to private life and didnt do any more Public Service stuff. What he did was he went to a new York Law Firm as the main partner. There was an old proverb of 1906 valentine bush v. Palmer and wood. It became a very famous firm. Thats when i started my legal career in 1984 and i worked for partner who was in his early 50s. He had done some work for a dewey. Dewey died in 71 i think you mentioned 13 years later and one day the partner said to me you know that do a scared the out of me. When i was in my ninth year so he should have been made a partner right around then. Dewey asks to do a special tax memo on an issue i didnt know anything about and im not a tax lawyer. He asked me to do this so i had to. I did it very quickly and i got it all done it was like a 20 page thing that i gave it to him and his was walking out the door did fly to florida for the weekend that weekend he died of a heart attack. Ive always wondered whether my memo was so bad that he gave him a heart attack. Red socks slugger carl you stream ski was getting ready to go to the airport to fly to washington so he could go dating gauge meant party of Richard Nixons daughter and the white house on that day. Yeah there were all kinds of other stories inside the firm about the way that he ran it clearly took it out on law firm when he wasnt president and thats the way everybody saw it. He wrote the last time we talked he talked about the accidental president how he got into the position to become the president as Vice President under fdr. Its a very unusual story. I give you background so people have an idea of where this guy came from. As a person i looked it up and he is the highest popular rating of any president ever and hes also had the lowest. It was like 91 right after world war ii ended in august and it was his lowest 22. Trump is never gone below 30 and george w. Bush went down to 25 but truman was at 22. It gives people an idea of how unpopular he got at some point so maybe a little background. I would just encourage people to start by looking at the picture. This is the one that the most dramatic pictures ever seen in my life. We are seeing here is 35 words and he becomes most powerful men in the world to this is what my book the accidental president is about was in the state that he was the Vice President of first place. Is never supposed to be the Vice President. Takes a long time in the book to explain that their exciting story. Here he is coming realizes when he becomes Vice President that president roosevelt was very sick and most people understand what is happening and truman is the Vice President and he has never been the mayor of a city never governor of the state and never has the money to own his own home no College Degree and he really has no idea whats going on in the white house. 82 days into this new regime at the art dies of a cerebral hemorrhage and warm springs georgia and truman out about this and he rushes to the white house. Standing to his left is best sent to the left is margaret first daughter, his only child and he becomes the president of the United States very much by accident and those are his words. Rafter this pictures taken he is ushered into a room with the secretary of war and the secretary says oh by the way we have the secret. This is the climactic month of world war ii and oh by the way we have a secret we have to tell you about but i cant tell you what it is pretty goes home to his tiny little apartment on connecticut avenue and hes terrified. As a ham sandwich and a glass of buttermilk and he goes to bed but one thing about truman he was remarkably talented at being able to sleep at moments of pressures it of pressures it goes to sleep it is as poignant moment where he wakes up in the middle of the night that night in bess truman who is now the first lady of the United States never wanted to be. Never wanted to go to washington wakes up the middle of the night and looks over and of course they have served their separate beds and shes sobbing hysterically. He said oh man this is going to be tough for the next four months hed united the nation and we win the war and everything is going great. This amazing story. Then all of a sudden he has to be the president at a time when the country is moving at into peacetime and nothing goes right. But nothing would go right no matter who is president. Economically in terms of migration of america of americans all of the stuff, just wasnt going to work and americans are immediately this guys is a loser. We want him out. We are tired of the Democratic Party and they are tired of the new deal and truman says we will continue but we are going to make it more liberal and even more to the left. People freak out so by the time the 1948 election approaches everybody thinks hes toast. Its a adjusting in the Midterm Election of 46 he had already lost to the people and the republicans took over the congress and the senate and one of the details of commonly known he tell that i had never heard senator fulbright went to truman and fulbright was a democrat went to truman said i want you to appoint a republican Vice President and then resigned so we have a republican president who work with the country. The countries of such chaos and we cant do anything else. Its such an interesting idea to him. It makes you asked the question can you imagine today if somebody came to Donald Trumps said while the house of representatives is a democrat so you should resign before democrat as Vice President. Can you imagine that today . Thats kind of what happens. Truman comes up with this thing where he says im not going to do that but americans took it so seriously had to put a press release out in the set on not doing daddy called senator fulbright a half brain. It sounds like he has some of trumps skills which is naming. I can imagine the donald was told he had to make Hillary Clinton as Vice President and what kind of day you would have a tweeting that night. Now hes president. Take us through, he met so many it wasnt just the Economic Issues at home but the International Issues of how to deal with the russians, they were our allies or our recent allies who people argued about at that time part or they going to be our allies . You told the story i think it was gibson who suggested that we share the secrets with the russians to develop trust because they will figure them out anyway. Some of the other extraordinary proposals that were being made at the time. People werent settled in the cold war mentality yet. It basically felt like a wartime washington. And the situation of israel. Israel was a country and truman had to figure out what to do. The for clamoring for support from the administrations but the Defense Department was saying no way. Africanamericans were demanding support from truman and the southern very powerful senators and governors were saying no civil rights. And of course the cold war, these were one saw local situations and i dont think any president could have handled it a truman happen to be in the white house and he took the brunt of the blame. George marshall i think was in charge of the state department and he would be very influential. He was against supporting israel for lots of political reasons. There were a lot of rational reasons for going against what we now consider things of course you do civil rights and support israel. But it was certainly not the framework or the context in which he made it rates think about the israel situation by itself. 6 million died in the camps of the cancer being liberated at the end of the war. Truman is president. His darkest secret came forward while truman was president that people were shocked and people wanted to support the homeland, let people in american a lot of people didnt care and truman was in a situation where there were a lot of powerful wealthy democratic donors who were or were saying we are going to support your campaign if you dont support the founding of this nation. The state department and Defense Department were saying no way. We are going to have this relationship with the nations. 1940 was the first year we imported more oil than we. Ourselves. They were not going to sell us oil at a decent price and we would need it because there was going to be a war. Another issue with regards to this was the economics of it all. People were sure that the only way we would support israel and israel could be founded physically sent american troops to help this country be formed and otherwise they wouldnt survive. Truman was in a very difficult situation finally decides the heck with it im going to support this. 90 of it at least. He makes his decision and the buck stops here and i was away was going to be. It became very much an issue during the election. With that we move forward to the election but the book is about the process of it. We have a video, right . Yes this is the democratic National Convention. This is one of my favorite moments. Truman comes in and there are literally people Walking Around with signs that say eisenhower for president because no one thinks truman can win. Theres this whole debacle world the southern white senators raise huge protests and walk out and abandon truman saying well we are going to form our own Political Party so by the time chairman comes in to make a speech at the democratic National Convention its a disaster and it gets gives this amazing speech that ignites everyone. There have always been differences and that the democratic way but those differences have been several. [inaudible] the way you write that up in the book is just great. Capture the excitement ends to clock in the morning and some people dont even realize what happened. He turns it around and gets people on his side obviously and is crucial because he was down by 30 points. It was the first these conventions republicans which happened three weeks before the democrats these are the worst president ial conventions that were televised but by the time chairman came on stage he was so late as things were so delayed that all the Television People had gone home. It was an amazing moment where truman did something that was really remarkable. All try to do this very clearly. He recognizes that the republican platform is tricky for the republicans adopt a liberal republican platform saying we are going to do this, this and that but the congress is controlled by conservative republicans who arent going to enact any of that walks up on stage and says i demand an emergency session of congress were you guys should enact all the stuff that we want to do. Those are the things that he wanted. The republicans are like now would we going to do and they go wild payday figure out what hes done and it basically tries to take the identity crisis is plaguing the party and after gives the speech theres this moment where this woman, i forget her name but anyway she comes out and she does this thing that nobody expected her to do press releases 50 doves into the hall because she thinks its such a dramatic moments but there are airconditioners whirling above in all these birds and everybodys freaking out because these birds are going to get killed and here is sam rayburn the former speaker of the house yelling get those [bleep] out of here and you could hear it on the radio. With that great machiavelli and move and people probably dont realize and its in your book of course that the congress had already stopped its session and wont meet until after the election. This is july or so but they werent planning on meeting again until november. He called them back. They were going to be gone for the next six month or whatever and they didnt do anything. Nothing got done. He calls at the turn of day session and he had his own reason. A mystery theres a certain time of year that turnips were harvested and he later said the only thing that is official session of congress is off the sale of turnips. We have some pictures of this campaign if i can talk a little bit about a. Shirt, talk about the campaign. Jerman realizes he cant win so he devises this plan. He cant win unless he does something totally unexpected and creates a president ial campaign unlike anything that had ever been done and he plans to break every rule that he possibly can. Really what it comes down to is he treats this situation where he goes around and the visits hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of towns where no president had ever campaigned, small towns all over the country. He says if we can expose Everyday Americans to the magic of the presidency and if i can talk to people facetoface who understand what im saying they will believe in me and they will vote for me creates the secret Research Department in washington d. C. And he sets up a team of speechwriters and the white house and the speechwriters are going to read the big speeches for the huge rallies that these Research People are going to write all the doma notecards and an airplane is going to fly in to wherever the train is coming in hand over these briefcases so when truman shows up in some little town he can say okay i know you just built a new sausage factory or there is a war hero that has passed away. He would have the information to start an offthecuff speech that connects these people and that he would just speak offthecuff about hatred to them in decency and honor. That is basically how it worked. In the process he became more than a president ial candidate. He had become an american folk hero. It was interesting how he began by giving speeches that were all written for him and to do it in the normal way and it ended up throwing more of that out and talking off the top of his head about what was on his mind and that was what was effective. He didnt have that wording skills that fdr had so when he began his presidency to it at the speechwriters come the same ones that the ones who wrote fdrs speeches were writing speeches for truman. Truman was terrible at delivering them and thats one of the reasons why. He spoke off the cuff and acted like an everyday american which is a crackly was he could connect with people. Keep going through the slides. They are more pictures of the campaigns. Stay up while we are going to the next slide the first question came in on this topic. From john brown and he asks truman had only met with fdr couple of times but were there others in the baddest ration during the first 80 days of his presidency . In other words to truman get a lot of help from fdr administration . You did. James burns. He appointed james burns secretary of state. He helped him write his speeches but really one of the things a lot of historians have said truman just picked up where roosevelt left and he just didnt do much during the war. He did a lot and he replaced the entire cabinet in very quickly. So essentially i think you did create it himself but through the war years there was henry stimson, james burns, sam roseman but after the war the figures that came up were young people mostly lawyers that he handpicked for the lot of them didnt have a tremendous amount of political experience but after the war ended by the time of the 1940 election comes around his main go to us Clark Clifford who wrote a lot of speeches and was on the campaign trail the entire time. Truman came out and had no political experience whatsoever. Specter was interesting to hear and its interesting when you go back in the political history and you see someone come on the stage iv the first time and clerk clifford had a big role in the 1960s as well and George Mcgovern was that Henry Wallaces First Political campaign. The decisionmaking. I just thought that was very interesting and its like watching a movie and someone becomes a big star later. All the people who came into office in 1948 who ogle by the way john kennedy nixon. Richard nixon at the same time. Its during the campaign. Who is on the horse . We dont know but theres a guy who heckled him on top of a horse. He comes out and he opens up and looks at the horse because for most of his life he was a farmer. He looks at the horse and he says this is not a good horse and the guy right away. [laughter] every day the campaign was a comedy of errors but at the same time it wasnt was very serious business. There was definitely this feeling that the future of the world was at stake. Okay so this is detroit Labor Day Weekend and literally this is when the campaign began. Truman shows up and Labor Day Weekend of course detroit home of the factory and he has this amazing rally in the square and right the first begin of the campaign everyone in the German Campaign are shocked because there are 100,000 people that turn out in the streets of detroit. They get in this car and drive north up to pontiac for these little towns in michigan. Everywhere they go there or tens of thousands of people in the street to see him and everyone is saying this doesnt make any sense. Who are these people on that sets the tone for the campaign. Why is he happy here . I have no idea. Its a great picture. Its a great picture but is it captures him. Lets talk about Henry Wallace. Henry wallace as is the person who brings us back to russian interference in an election. Tell us who he is and he was fdrs Vice President. How did and up running on another platform in what was that platform . Henry wallace as the Vice President in 1944 and he is pushed out very unexpectedly during the 1944 election to make way for truman to a lot of people thought wallace was a little. He was very far to the left and made people uncomfortable. He was sort of a misfit. He gets pushed aside in 1944 to make way for truman and hes not happy about it. He knows hes a massive hero among liberal americans and after the war theres this one day where he comes to the white house and the sits down with truman and a bunch of other people and they said in the white house and they have lunch and they watch footage of an atomic test, an atomic ongoing off. They can see it from different tangles and wallace is completely unnerved. Hes like this is wrong. We shouldnt he doing this and the fact that we are setting off these atomic test and the soviets, we refuse to share the secrets of them. This is causing this new thing called the cold war. Wallace breaks as truman and launches his own campaign called the Progressive Party gives it a nickname names it gideons army. The biblical term. A very christian man and i talked a little bit earlier about what his campaign stood for but they are these poignant moments where hes able to connect with people on the coast through hes really and ticket of the something important going on now withhold rallies in New York Los Angeles chicago these liberal bastions and people would go wild. The biggest political rallies that anybody had ever seen and a lot of young people and a lot of celebrities. W. E. B. Dubois and black americans and americans and intellectuals loved wallace but then he would go into the american heartland and there would be riots. People wanted to murder the guys because they were so uncomfortable. We are seeing that cant same kind of division america today. It in the same groups of people ironically. In geography as well. In geography as well. Its amazing how much we just shift the terms and shift some of the things that the basic emotional issues remain the same about what people are comfortable with them what they are not the one of the things i found interesting was your story about the moscow newspapers covering his triumph in new york and so on. It reminded me so much of an inauguration in 2017. Its an important point. Wallace was still so far to the left and it brought together this Grassroots Campaign and shockingly the people who were running his campaign were very aligned with the communist party of the United States and they did oral histories and explained exactly what they were doing. It it was extraordinarily controversial during the early days of cold war that you have this very popular presents a candidate where everyone knew his platform mirrored the communist partys platform. And interesting time to change your opinion because you did it during the mccarthy era when it was such a big issue and you are not disavowing his past but to say no. That was is inaccurate that moscow is not operating on the basis that we can deal with. So with the Progressive Party then we have a fourth party. Right . Strom thurmond. Hes a democrat just like to but not exactly. Its useful not only to explain Strom Thurmond but also the switch from the democrats to republicans. He is fascinating to me on so many levels. So what they did and with a conservative part of the party with Strom Thurmond. And then they launch the Dixiecrat Party in opposition to the civil rights program. And to be the governor of South Carolina with a political argument and he shot and killed the man when thurmond was a young boy so thurmonds father. And tillman as a party of racism and White Supremacy. So he becomes the head of the Dixiecrat Party the federal government should not be to tell states that people are not allowed to vote so to launch the Incredible Campaign that he has secrets of his own he has a senator sense and mentioning the only senator that was still a senator at the age of 100 and in addition to that he always had much younger wives and making children for a while. Just an interesting character all around. Even up against lbj the president at the time. At least in the popular notion 15 or 20 years to total White Supremacy he was known as a racist but not that far. Im very careful in the book to make sure when people understand when they are reading the decisions people are making in the campaign and the ideas people embraced so you i will see understanding what was coming from. And traditions that were in the south and for generations thats the reason why he one for states. So from the macro point of view its important to point out that all through the early if one early as part of the 20th century the solid south of the Democratic Party built around race with 1877 with a very complicated situation. The reconstruction with the federal government said you can make this happen and move the union troops out of the south and you can make your own rules. And they became very segregated. The solid south of the Democratic Party that thats when it all shifted. And to watch their own party because they were conservatives politically and theoretically and aligned on a very simple issue. Thats when it all started today the solid south of the Republican Party. And the conclusion reached in the election because there was another new york governor even though they were giving up on why they fought the civil war 12 years earlier. So to take that short timeframe to be more important than what you did. Thats important context and its interesting to think the issues of Politics Today could have effects of generations of our Political Parties. Thats why when somebody comes in to create a cycle, if you read history it makes things fall out in strange ways. So that is Strom Thurmond and you tell the story at the end of his daughter. He has a daughter from when he was a teenager . Because it does seem to be paternal and attentive and he has a daughter he fathered with an africanamerican woman and nobody knows. He is very caring for her and takes care of her financially after he dies she writes a memoir and it is so moving that she follows the selection. Negroes have no right to be in our summing pools and churches and should not be voting. Her name is essie mae and just married another africanamerican man and they are seeing this and listening to it on the radio because this poor woman is married to an africanamerican man who has no idea that Strom Thurmond is her father and listening to these Campaign Speeches on the radio. She writes a very moving memoir. At the end of the story after he loses, they meet and she says how can you say those things why word you say that and he explains from where he comes from these are american traditions and the way american on merrick is supposed to be. Nobody loves and cares for the negro race more than me. Those were his words. It is a very poignant moment. The reason i like that story is it gives some hope a certain amount of the hatred and animosity is for show. There is a great scene in Huckleberry Finn talking about lynching because very few people actually want to do the lynching but almost all of them have to do with what the crowd is doing. Most of the protesters dont want to loot but once one starts a lot of people do things they werent really pulled on planning on doing and if they are in a crowd. Thats why having order helps but it gives hope about whatever progress we can make. If 90 percent of the people are shouting than they dont believe what they are shouting. I agree. Thats where leadership comes in. Lets not do this. Things will change. Exactly the point there are other stories in history about one person doing something really stupid so lets select some leaders that wont do that. [laughter] which is interesting if you go through this Election Year because it doesnt seem like truman has a chance. What did he say . He said to one person th story. They vote in a new plan to up the budget of 80000. And then to the right of the first and they are having quite a good time. Probably what republicans thought they would spend on do we. [laughter] on Election Night a woman named India Edwards a very charismatic woman a highranking woman at the dnc at the time. Its well known trumans wife didnt thinks he could win but they said together and he says theres only two people who thought i could win the election and my wife is not one of them. [laughter] thats great. We have time for a couple of questions. Everyone predicted truman lose so there was the eat crow story. And inviting truman to a dinner where they would serve crow and eat it. Thats an old expression. I of people still know that expression so Election Night in kansas city with his home crowd its very exciting. A lot of people of that generation could say that they knew where they were on two occasions. Thats when they found out about pearl harbor. So there is a huge celebration and he gets on the train and he stops in st. Louis with a copy of the Chicago Tribune and holds it up with the headline do we defeats truman. So he. The famous picture and then he gets back and goes to washington. And David Mccullough said this is the Biggest Party that washington had ever seen. Millions of people came to see the train come in and the Washington Post hung a sign that said we eat crow you are invited to a crow banquet. At the time it was a sign on a saying that if you Say Something wrong then you eat crow. So the media had a lot to answer for and thats why its important to think about now we see a lot of polls now to say no way trump can win. I see that every day. Dont believe the polls go out and vote who you think should win. Dont listen to the polls but the other reason why this is interesting because truman made claims at the time that resonate now because of the whole issue of fake news he made a big speech in cleveland he said all these reporters and newspapers and pollsters are saying i cant win they are controlled by the same people that dont want me to win so dont necessarily believe them so go out and vote and vote they did. We have a couple of question questions. Was truman surprised he one or did he believe in his Campaign Strategy . He believed in the strategy he was the only one. Throughout the campaign and this is one of the things that shocked people because he lived on this train with the people and was not pleasant there was no showers or laundry maybe one shower. A very grueling thing. People and only one person insisted with complete confidence that he would win was truman because he had confidence in his strategy and campaign. Was he surprised that he one . But we just told the story he always believed he would win. He was not surprised that there was a wonderful moment. It took a long time to get the polls not like they are electronic or computer isa by the time he realized he had one, he shows up at the Campaign Headquarters at 6 00 oclock in the morning and people are exhausted. He shuts himself in a room to call his wife there is no email or texting her cell phones. There is a reporter there who had been on the campaign trail the whole time found out truman back at headquarters go to sleep ten minutes earlier shows up in his pajamas with an overcoat and he piques and sees truman crying talking to his wife. Is a moving moment he knew he would win but it was still a shock. Is a good question for someone. Did truman win or did the gop lose it . Great question. Both. I have expressed why truman one today but one of the reasons why do we lost was a critical strategic decision he made early in the campaign. He ran a campaign for the governor in 1940 he ran to attack campaigns and he had lost into campaigns for governor with they were not that high level, non engaging, rhetoric so he decided to run a very high and poetic campaign wrapped around the term based on unity so he never attacked truman very rarely mentioned his name spoke nothing of the issues because he believed he was going to get in the white house so he made commitments to issues he would be handtied when he got to the white house. So he gave speech after speech after speech and that was his Campaign Strategy citing the answer to the question is both. How come the most republican areas are so progressive and have the highest than previous generations . Right now solidly red republican areas were progressive in previous generations. I know that is accurate. What areas . It doesnt say but i would guess the midwest but the midwest at the time were progressive republicans. Like that part of the Republican Party that was a midwestern phenomenon. They were in favor just as do we was in terms of civil rights but also Environmental Issues cleaning up the water of the great lakes and that kind of thing. So im not quite sure what that can do so well move to another one. Is lack of a definite and certain result on election and harmful to the processor does that help ask the fact that we dont know right away who one is this good or bad . It means a very different thing now than it would have then because the actual process of counting votes is different on difficult but today it is clearcut. But i will go ahead and say its detrimental because i think its important people have faith in the democratic process. And im hoping and praying. Were coming up on a big election a very historic moment for our country. Both sides obviously believe that they are right in both sides believe they will win. If there is an election result it will not help us. Unfortunately there is technology involved if its one thing i hope for november of this year that the democratic process works so whatever happens we can accept it to say this is a democratic process this is the result of an election and we can get down to business. And with the 2004 election george w. Bush most are democratic so do we really believe in democracy . And i ask people that was an emotional election. Do all of you have a strong emotional reaction . So the rest of you are not so happy. How many of you had this experience cracks the person you voted for lost they were very happy the democratic process one in the majority everybody says what you talking about . Nobody reacts other than those who read history emotionally to the democratic process which is another reason why it has to be clear and not muddled like florida with a hanging chads not where the uncertainty is because most people know about illinois 1960 its fairly clear the personal and that being president will win the election. When another gop candidate be truman . Thats a great question. I have no idea but i can tell you this theres a lot of monday morning quarterbacks after 1948. Richard nixon firmly believed a lot of people said that he was a candidate he would have one they were in a very clear position as a very interesting question obviously. But along the same lines the question im often asked what do we have one of republicans pulled off the election . I honestly think do we would have been a terrific president. And things might not have been that different in many ways then it turned out just a different person administering them one thing that came up recently is whether the whole mccarthy era wouldve happened if dewey was president and thats an interesting question that was in a talk from a few days ago and thats a critical issue everybody had a hard time standing up to mccarthy but dewey was a prosecutor and a lawyer it would have taken them apart and put an end to that quickly i think. In that context eisenhower was up for grabs in both parties in 1940 and decided not to run but he did meet with do we. Eisenhower slid into that rule one. That role in you think that dewey could have done that. Dewey the first thing he did to begin his campaign everybody wanted eisenhower to run on the democratic ticket no way truman can win lets get eisenhower. He doesnt belong to any party lets get him to rerun is a democrat and he refuses soon after that he appears as a very calculated photo op with dewey and commits himself to the Republican Party. Good timing with a statement he thinks because truman had the unshakable faith and great integrity and could not have had anything to do with corruption and never did and thats why he is considered a great president. There is a speech about that very quickly. And truman left office he had a measurable approval rating. Why is it today democrats love truman . You hear donald trump nancy pelosi, why do they all hold him to the standard . For me the story answers that question because here is a man such an absolute patriot a courageous man fighting for what he believed to be fighting for our country and that is it for me. And to see that disconnect between what he said and what he did which is rare in a politician. Thank you for writing another great book on truman and thank you to our audience at the Commonwealth Club 118 enlightened discussion thank you for joining us once again many have dreams and can relate to this right now in 2020 many plans were derailed because of the pandemic. But i took a route because they didnt change the law. It wasnt fair. Even though i graduated higher than those in front of me i still cannot be a Fighter Pilot because i was a girl so i took the assignment to be the Instructor Pilot filing the t30 seven but it gave me the opportunity to turn pedestrians into pilots. Putting in dangerous situations and they puke all over you but its important work. I thought it was a chance for me to keep building my airman ship and excelling and growing many people didnt take it. And that would keep the door open if they change the law in the policy. The law was changed at that point but the policy wasnt. I felt it would happen soon i would be ready and building my experience and thats exactly what happened. The door opened i was at the right place at the right time with the right experience. Had a not been derailed initially i would not have been in the position to have broken the barriers. Sometimes you cant see a detour takes you on your path to your destiny host another evening on are bent watch series tonight books written by former first ladys the first that ventured into publishing was mrs. Taft require one dash recollections of full years of 1914 memoir. s and sent another first ladys have published memoirs we will focus on five who served in that position in the last 50 years. First Rosalynn Carter serving as first lady 1977 to 1981 and the author of five books and in 1984 her bestselling the more first lady from planes was released. Her subsequent books have focused on caregiving and Mental Health care is subject she has championed her life now from 2010 here is Rosalynn Carter talking about her book and that Mental Health crisis. [applause] thank you very much. I am pleased to be here tonight and to see so many