Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the sign institute of policy and politics summer series sign of the time. Im amy, executive director and at the sign institute we are a laboratory for University Wide collaboration and incubator for policy innovation. It can mean the best and brightest of the public, private, academic and nonprofit sectors as well as journalism and its program is only possible by a generous gift from our alumni, jeff simon and his wife meera for todays topic is the path to recovery, what is the true state of the u. S. Economy and it cannot be more timely. We would like to take a moment to acknowledge our cosponsor for this event, the school of business at American University and to think the dean for his support and also thank the distinguished leaders joining us today from our board of trustees and alumni board members. It is my pleasure at this time to introduce the people who will be leading this incredible conversation. Sylvia Matthews Burwell is president of American University and the first woman to lead that institution. She previously served as attorney second secretary of the u. S. Department of health and human services, she also served as the director of the office of management and budget and she has also served as the president of global develop into an program and chief operating officer of the bill and Melinda Gates foundation and president of the walmart foundation. She is joined today by gary cohen, former director of National Economic council and chief Economic Advisor to president trump, former president and chief operating officer of Goldman Sachs and possibly most importantly terry is alumni of American University and receiving his bs da from the school of business but i welcome you both and president , im sure you ready to start the conversation. I am. Amy, thank you. Thank you for that introduction and your leadership at the institute and we are excited about this conversation today. Gary, thank you so much for joining us. Gary and i share American University and we also share of the Economic Council where i spent some time a little while ago as well and so i will just get us started but we are going to focus on the economy but before we focus on the economy, gary, we need to start with the trajectory of covid19 because right about now these things are so interactive in terms of what that means. Gary, could you start us off with talk a little bit about where you think the trajectory of covid19 is and lets look at it on a sixmonth basis and then where you think we are a year from now . First of all, sylvia, thank you for having me and thank you for hosting this today. Look, i hate this question. Look, i acknowledge right up front that im not a doctor and im not an epidemiologist and to have any view of really where we are going in the u. S. Economy you have to have a view on the virus and they are inextricably linked by now. If you get anything wrong on either side you will make mistakes. Look, we are in a position that we did not think we would begin in the middle of july. We all felt or we all heard or we were all told because none of us really know that the virus would subside during the summer months but we needed to be prepared for a second wave comes september or october during normal flu season but it seems to me that we are still on a prolonged first wave and reaching record highs from the first wave. I think that has changed my thinking and has probably changed your thinking as well, i am not talk to you recently but its changed all her thinking on where we are so you as a president of the university have to figure out what will you do to reopen your university and we will talk about that in a minute and i am trying to think from an economic standpoint the fundamental basics of our kids going back to school at a primary level. Are they going back to school at a secondary level . Are parents going back to work, can they go back to work . Or will be continue to be a work at home environment. Because the Economic Forecast on people going back to a somewhat normalized work in education life versus the abnormal world we are in right now is completely different. So, it looks to me unfortunately that i was not in the position three, four weeks ago that it looks to me that the infection rates showing no signs of giving up will force a lot of the academic institutions at all levels to take an approach they did not want to take and it looks like employers will have to take an approach they did not want to take and we will continue in this stayathome work at Home Education longer than we thought which means that Economic Growth will be slower and that the Small Businesses that really drive our economy will continue to suffer. The big unintended consequence that we have learned about and we are now dealing with from the corona crisis is really the Small Businesses in this country, six different set of jobs, 60 of Small Business in america but what we did and looked, there was no malice intended in what was done here we deemed certain businesses in this country to be fundamentally important and essential and we deem many businesses to be nonessential, even though they did somewhat of the same thing and the large big international, global businesses we deemed essential and the small neighborhood businesses we deemed not essential. The global businesses have got to stay open and they got to sell products that we needed even though there core was food and medicine and we put the small local businesses that sold us clothing and all the other things that were essential businesses sold us and told them they needed to shut down. The longer those businesses were shut down, the tougher it is for our economy to recover. This is a tough predicament and sylvia, i thank you are in this position and will be interesting to think as you face a really tough decision and a prick of document to open up the economic institution. Well, you know, it is a related theory and in terms to the initial question but what is the trajectory of the pandemic and the circumspect of some of my old background in terms of what you build, what you do for the university on that and like you i was more optimistic or earlier in the summer in terms of where we could be and the possibilities but i do think that some of the fundamentals still hold. The fundamentals that still hold that could help us from a Health Perspective and therefore help us from an Economic Perspective are the basics of a pandemic are prevention, detection and response. I dont think weve ever lets all get on the same page, these are the three things we all need to focus on and we as individuals need to do our part and as government and institutions they need to do their parts. As we think through those fundamentals, if we can get those fundamentals to a place where you can contain the spread of the virus and that has to do with one of those things that i dont think we all talked about the trajectory of the virus and we talked about flattening the curve and we werent really specific in helping and being specific but what you need to do is you need to get to a place where you have reduced Community Spread but what is Community Spread . We throw those words around but the real deal is that we got to get to a place where the spread is occurring in a way we know how and why it is spreading. Have to small enough number and you have to know where the cases are coming from. That means you have to get a caseload down pretty low so that when an individual gets covid19 you have tested them, you have isolate or quarantine them and you Contact Trace so that you prevent the additional spread. When you get to that stage you can start to contain brick that is what we are seen in other countries and that is what we are seeing in some places in this country that you get the caseload down but how do do that . Preventive but we all have to wear a mask. That is a part of it. We know its a highly transmissible virus that it is spread through, you know, even our breathing and talking and double masks and that is a great protection that we can have in the distance of 6 feet is another protection and because sometimes the droplets from our breath and our sneezes and are talking can land on things continuing to wash those hands. When we do that and combined those things i think we could get to that placement that leads to American University right now we are on a path that we have cut over half the number of students we will have an residence on campus because we will only have one student live in a room. In terms of trying to meet these basic preventative conditions. We are going to put in place adaptation so that people are answering these questions and these important prevention questions and so we will be from a residential perspective a much less dense institution, residentially and then the other part we will do is we are going to continue to telework as much as possible so our staff does not add to the density. Keep that density is low as we possibly can and then from a perspective we are doing a blended approach which means some will choose to stay where they are and take a class online and how we do the facetoface will be an unchanged and more limited fashion. That is how, for me, connecting those two pieces in terms of it. On the economy, i think youre giving us a picture that covid19 is going to still be a burden to the economy. How do you think about where the economy is right now . Where markets are right now . And where they will be in about six months . The first thing, it is hard to believe 100 plus days or four month later were still talking about tests, handwashing and masks. It really is hard to believe. But we are and we havent solved the basics. Test, test, test. On the test i think there is an important thing that im afraid we need a National Approach and an approach to testing because with a virus that is so transmissible and we have Community Spread tests cant just be a diagnostic tool and diagnostic means i go to the doctor and i think i have strep. They test me. Thats a diagnostic tool and that is how we are using the test and the test actually have to be a part of the surveillance and understanding because we have so much spread but that is why you need these tests and access to the test and the other thing is you need access to test on a timely basis but i think most folks know that the number of days it takes to get your test results goes up and during that time people are not isolating if they dont know. Let me talk about the market. Its the most asked question i get. If im on a oneonone conversation people tell me they dont understand the value of markets and thats why i asked them what you view as your . For the market so with the dow i remind people its stocks. If they use it s p i remind people its the [inaudible] stocks but we dont have an index for small family, women, minority owned businesses but with we have the index it would be trading at alltime records. The indexes we quote are the dow, s p, the russell, the nasdaq 100, they are all very Small Industries and the key here is they are all market cap weighted industries meaning that the bigger you are the bigger you are weighing in the index bid there are literally a few companies right now that are dominating the performance of the stock market so when we talk about the dow or the s p we are really talking about, in essence, a small handful and we all know who those countries are and by the way, those companies have become more important in our life than they ever have been because we cant live without them in this covid work at home, stayed home, live at home world. There are companies that provide us connectivity and they are companies that provide us food and comedies that provided services and in essence, like i said before, we made these companies bigger but we have given them more marketshare than they ever could have thought they would have had and we made them more essential than they ever thought they would be and we have done it unfortunately at the expense of Small Businesses. When people say i cant believe based on the Economic Conditions that im seeing right now that the stock markets are at a record high, i say look, i dont have a problem with it because when i look at what is going on with the companies it drives the values of these stock markets based on their market cap in the radians and it makes sense and they are companies that we all need to deal with. There is a disconnect between market cap weighted industries and nonmarket cap and basically thats unchanged for the year but if you took the 500 stocks in the s p that is unchanged just to get on a 500 stock you would have over 10 difference in the returns of the s p by the market cap so that is how important it is to see how these industries are calculated. The fundamental economy is really in a precarious position right now. The federal government stepped in early and they did what they needed to do. They provided enormous amount of stimulus money at a variety of Different Levels but they provide and enhance an appointment. Well, we told people that we need you to stay home to fight the virus. That was one of our lines. Initially we did the right thing. We knew Small Businesses needed to shut down so we provided ppp loans. We spent 3 trillion in stimulus money to try to get ourselves through the virus initially. Whether it is fortunate or unfortunate but most of that money is running out right around now and the end of july. The enhanced on appointment benefits are running out we have extended ppp but you can only take the money wants almost comedies that have been eligible for the money that wanted the money have taken it and we use a country and we as a legislative branch, we as a federal government and we as citizens and we have to decide are we going to re up these benefits now because the virus is still here or are we not . I dont think we have a chance. I dont think we have to do a second round of stimulus. We will have to get more money to Small Businesses because we cannot allow Small Businesses open and we thought they would have a chance to open during this virus and then there would be more decisions in october. We are not allowing the people to go back to work so these businesses will need the federal stimulus. On top of that we still have not dealt with a couple of the basic fundamental facts and we through enormous financial burden on the state in the country and we asked the state to step up and pay for a lot of healthcare costs they werent planning on and we asked him to pay for a lot of on appointment benefits that they werent planning on and simultaneously most of them walked the vast majority of the revenue because it sales tax and a lot of them stopped collecting sales tax so we need to get states back to the financial positions they were in pre virus. Im not advocating getting them back to financial position they were in a long time ago but get them back to where they were pre virus and on top of that Hospital System in Healthcare System in this country contrary to what you might thank you said look, weve got a big healthcare event in this country and the medical system and Healthcare System mustve been a great financial shape but its the complete opposite. The Health Care System in his country is in dire financial need. Most medical systems in this country were forced to shut down and be in a position to only treat covid and covid related illnesses. They shut down what we call elective surgeries, i will remind everyone that most elective surgeries, if they are happening to you are pretty essential surgeries. He would not consider them elective surgeries. If you are having a tumor removed or a cancerous removed or shattered your knee and it is being rebuilt and you are in a wheelchair you would not consider that elective. Her medical Care Industry does consider that elective because its not lifethreatening. We needed to for a short time. Make those hospital beds available. We need to get our Healthcare System back in a financial strong wave to do that. Look, i think we need to go in another round of stimulus and i dont know if you agree with that but it seems like we are not going to make it through the next three months without the legislator getting involved. I agree and i think that the other part that needs to be considered in terms of actions by the Congress Gets to the things that will help us fundamentally contained the virus and whether that is the funding for the testing infrastructure that we made as a nation and that doesnt mean that its not the same in every place, what it means is the principles and the ability to access the testing that we have enough and when, [inaudible] their capacity right now in terms of the testing, how are we as a federal government thinking about supplementing and figuring out how we have the capacity so the one thing i would say is i believe we need to do things on the economic side but i would consider doing the right things that we need to do in terms of ensuring that there is testing capability and in terms of ensuring there is contact and tracing capabilities and ensuring the states have the ability to support people and places and doing the isolation necessary to keep things contained to reduce the level and keep things contained. That would be the other part of what i think needs to be considered. What about youve got a background but what about the Mental Health side . We talked about the Mental Health side of what is going on here and the kids not getting the protection they need and not being seen and teachers being the first line of defense, especially in the primary education system. I think two of the things has we consider legislation that need to be or make sure we are considering and you touch on one of them in a related way, two things that arent front and center is becoming that way, Mental Illness number one and two, basic healthcare. The number of we are not measuring closely and carefully the deaths are occurring because people arent having the procedures that you are talking about, that people even if they could have the procedures are concerned and dont go because they dont want to be exposed in a hospital setting to something. And so, those two things are things we need to focus on. On the Mental Health, i think the Mental Health issue is an issue that is across the board from our children and we have a ten, 12 euros here at home and through the College Students and what we see in american universities in terms of the increase need to the parent and everyone and to our elderly who are the number of elderly when you talk to people who have elderly parents that are dying during this time the fact that they cant see people leads to more decline more quickly and so its acrosstheboard with Mental Health issues but i think we should think about this as a real opportunity to think about taking that next up in Mental Health and theres something about Mental Health act which was making Mental Health exactly this is one of those things where the legislation is does what it says in terms of trying to make sure there is parity between the physical health and Mental Health, in terms of how you pay for it in terms of its prioritization. There were steps of the Affordable Care act but also helped Mental Health forward in terms of that coverage that people need and so this is a real opportunity to think through what we need to be doing in a situation that is acute and that we will see a result of this for an extremely long time and whether that is things as simple as a university are counselors cant provide Telehealth Services to a student during washington dc and the student to california and they were in counseling at au, we cant provide the services but if there is some weight there could be a waiver and a certain licensing restriction for a limited time. We could limit constraints so we could continue care so there are many things that we can do in the Mental Health space. I have a daughter that teaches in the new york city public system in a fairly poor neighborhood and she is worried about her kids getting fed. Half of her kids, she considers herself a person or first line of defense to make sure kids are healthy and safe it she literally is worried about the fourthgraders and how they are surviving. A lot live in one room apartment in new York City Public School did a good thing to make sure each family had one ipad but some of them are for kids in a small one, two room apartment sharing one ipad trying to go to school online. And they probably dont have highspeed internet. I dont know what that leads to but it surely doesnt lead to a robust education system. And its most important years when kids are in fourth grade and really the core of the learning year. Yes, i think that point brings in this question on how covid19 has laid bare both racial and economic inequities and, you know, the situation is in front of us and i think there is the question of what does that mean from a policy perspective as we go forward and in terms of the situation that has been laid bare in front of us is that we see and we see the incredible inequities in terms of who is bearing the Health Burden and who is bearing the economic burden of covid19 and whether that is in the health space where we know that our black community, communities of color they are a disproportionate burden on the illness of covid19 and that is related to another issue that the country focused on hopefully in a real way to make change which are issues of racism because what is happening is these are communities that have Health Disparities and historically have that are related to those issues and now we see covid19 with more deaths, more bidding, more sickness and illness and the economically these communities are being disproportionally effective because they are the jobs that are essential in the Small Businesses that you were referring to in terms of the places that are not what you are disarming as he got to have a policy to help us bridge through this time that i dont know if you thought about the inequity in these spaces and the policies that we should be thinking about. You talk about them now but also in the future. You cant go a day without thinking about these policies. We knew these issues were out there. None of these issues are new to us. For those of us that served in Public Policy world we knew a lot of these issues. That is the good news. The bad news is we have never been able to solve them. Look, we knew they existed in the corporate world as well but we have never been able to solve them. Covid has really brought home the reality that we dont have a choice but to solve some of these inequality issues in the United States. When it comes to education or health care, jobs, opportunity, access to capital, we dont have a choice anymore. Look, i very firmly believe it starts with education and that is why i bring up the example of kids in new york city and yes the city gave them an ipad but for kids and a one room apartment with slow internet is not exactly an environment where they will be able to learn and so getting kids back to school is really important. It is just one of the pieces of the puzzle. We have to continue to figure out better ways to make the system work for everyone. Education is important. Access to capital, look, the idea that we got the most robust, Financial Markets in the world in the United States and we are the home of Capital Markets, if you asked me to list a competitive advantage i would list the breath and depth of our Capital Markets and the people come here from all around the world to start new companies and one of the reasons they do that is because of our educational system and the other reason they do that is because we got access to capital. We do that for foreign oars but we cant even do it for the people that were born here. The inequality plays into that hand. We have to figure out ways to get People Better education, keep them in the system and make sure people understand there is capital and Financial System will provide capital for anyone with great entrepreneurial ideas. Gas, and i think we also, as we do that in terms of those inequities also realize recognizing that we solve the problems that racism is an additional problem for many that we have to resolve and that is the terminal Justice System and policing that we have seen as a nation in terms of as a think about those changes. As we think about that, focusing on that access to education across the board and particularly during this time, how do we get young people back in the economic sphere and how do you think about questions, i dont want to use those loaded terms because i think they come with the social safety net comes with the picture and word so lets not use those words but how do we think we make our economy and when making our economy, making the economy of individuals willing us through more challenging times . One thing that we see relative to other countries as they have mechanisms for resiliency in ways when they have even if it theyre not covid19 downturns that are this extreme that you can get through those in the economy and the economy means basically individuals, basic economic wellbeing as well as the overall economy. Other thoughts you have about how we think about making our economy more resilient . I do. The covid experience is probably a once in a long lifetime experience. 1918 was the last time we had Something Like this in the United States. Its 100 Year Experience but that said it is not the first time we have had to deal with Something Like this in the United States which does put us on notice as a country that we now have to think that potentially every hundred years and by the way these viruses dont know what 100 years is. They can happen in two years and we now have two think of the country as how can we be prepared for these viruses. One of the things i have talked a lot about lately and this fits in with the economic picture is because our whole economic job picture will change based on what we have gone through in the last four months that if we have spent an enormous amount of time over the last hundred years in the United States talking about our military security and International Security and protection from enemies, foreign and abroad and we have never really talked about domestic security in this country. We never really thought of protecting our citizens day in and day out and i think we all come away from this virus and were not done with it. Thinking generally about domestic security, what does it mean to have a secure supply chain of newer than 2020 ppe, personal protective equipment . How do we make sure that we manufacture in the United States or stockpile in the United States enough personal protective equipment that you would never be an issue and would never be a newsworthy relieve us from here to keep our ears long commitment to a live coverage of the u. S. Senate. Senate lawmakers to date baiting