Many millions have lost their jobs. There is great uncertainty about the future. At the Federal Reserve, we are strongly committed to using our tools to do whatever we can, and for as long as it takes, to f provide some relief and stability, to ensure that the recovery will be as strong as possible, and to limit lasting damage to the economy. The most important response to this crisis has come from our health care workers. And on behalf of the Federal Reserve, let me express our sincere gratitude to those dedicated individuals who put themselves at risk, day after day, in service to others and to our nation. Let me also thank the many other essential workers across the country who have helped meet our basic needs for goods and services in these difficult times. The virus and the forceful measures taken to control its spread have induced a sharp decline in Economic Activity and a surge in job losses. Indicators of spending and production plummeted in april, and the decline in real gdp in the Current Quarter is likely to be the most severe on record. Even after the unexpectedly positive may employment report, nearly 20 million jobs have been lost on net since february, and the Unemployment Rate has risen about 10 percentage points, to 13. 3 . As was highlighted by the bureau of labor statistics, this figure likely understates the extent ot unemployment; accounting for the unusually large number of workers who reported themselves as employed but absent from their jobs would raise the Unemployment Rate by about 3 percentage points. The downturn has not fallenir equally on all americans, and those least able to shoulder the burden have been the most affected. In particular, the rise in joblessness has been especially severe for lowerwage workers, for women, and for African Americans and hispanics. In recent weeks, some indicatore suggest a stabilization or even a modest rebound in some segments of the economy, such as Retail Merchandise and Motor Vehicle sales. Employment rose in many sectors of the economy in may, and the unemployment edged down as some workers returned to their jobs from temporary layoffs. With the easing of socialem distancing restrictions acrosspo the country, people are increasingly moving about, and many businesses are resuming operations to varying degrees. At the same time, many households have been receiving b stimulus payments and Unemployment Benefits, which are supporting incomes and spending. Activity in many parts of the economy has yet to pick up, however, and overall output is far below earlier levels. An moreover, despite the improvements seen in the may jobs report, unemployment remains historically high. Weak demand, especially in sectors most affected by the pandemic, is holding down consumer prices. As a result, inflation has fallen well below our symmetric 2 objective. Indicators of longerterm Inflation Expectations have been fairly steady. The extent of the downturn andd the pace of recovery remain extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus. We all want to get back to normal, but a full recovery is unlikely to occur until people are confident that it is safe to reengage in a broad range of activities. The severity of the downturn will also depend on the policy actions taken at all levels of government to provide relief and to support the recovery when tho Public Health crisis passes. The feds response is guided by our mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the american people, along with our responsibilities to promote the stability of the Financial System. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time. In march, we quickly lowered our policy Interest Rate to near zero, where we expect to keep ii until we are confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. We have also been taking broad and forceful actions to support the flow of credit in the economy. Without access to credit, t families could be forced to cut back on necessities or even lose their homes. Businesses could be forced to downsize or close, resulting in further losses of jobs andus incomes and worsening the downturn. Preserving the flow of credit is thus essential for mitigating the damage to the economy and setting the stage for the recovery. Since march, we have been purchasing sizable quantities of treasury and agency mortgagebacked securities in order to support the smoothe functioning of these markets, which are vital to the flow of credit in the economy. Ng our ongoing purchases have helped to restore orderly market conditions, and have fostered more accommodative financial conditions. T as market functioning has improved since the strains experienced in march, we have gradually reduced the pace of these purchases. To sustain smooth market functioning and thereby foster the effective transmission of Monetary Policy to broader financial conditions, we will increase our holdings of treasury and agency mortgagebacked securities overa coming months at least at the current pace. We will closely monitory developments and are prepared to adjust our plans as appropriate to support our goals. The Federal Reserve is also undertaking programs to provide stability to the Financial System and to more directly support the flow of credit in the economy for households, for businesses of all sizes, and for state and local governments. These programs benefit thees economy by providing financing where it is not otherwisehe available. In addition, by serving as a backstop to key credit markets, the programs can increase the willingness of private lenders to extend credit. Many of these programs rely on emergency lending powers that are available only in very unusual circumstances, such as those we find ourselves in today. We are deploying these lendingng powers to an unprecedented extent, enabled in large part by financial backing and support from congress and from the treasury. We will continue to use these powers forcefully, proactively, and aggressively until we are confident that we are solidly on the road to recovery. When the time comes, after the crisis has passed, we will put these emergency tools back in the toolbox. I would stress that these areth lending powers, not spendinge powers. The fed cannot grant money to particular beneficiaries. We can only create programs or facilities with broadbased eligibility to make loans to solvent entities with the expectation that the loans will be repaid. Many borrowers will benefit from these programs, as will the overall economy. But for many others, getting a loan that may be difficult to repay may not be the answer. In these cases, direct fiscal support may be needed. Elected officials have the power to tax and spend and to make decisions about where we, as a society, should direct our collective resources. The cares act and other legislation provide direct help to people, and businesses, and communities. This direct support can make a critical difference, not just in helping families and businesses in a time of need, but also in limiting longlasting damage to our economy. At this meeting, my colleagues and i continued our discussion of approaches for conducting Monetary Policy when the federal funds rate is at its lower bound. The measures we discussed included explicit forms of Forward Guidance and asset purchases. We used these tools in the aftermath of the Global Financial crisis, and they have become a standard part of our toolkit. We also reviewed the historical and foreign experience with targeting Interest Rates along the yield curve. Whether such an approach would usefully complement our main tools remains an open question. We will continue our discussions in upcoming meetings and will evaluate our Monetary Policyti stance and communications as more information about the trajectory of the economy becomes available. We also resumed our regular quarterly summary of Economic Projections, or the sep. The sep is an input into our deliberations, not an outcome, and it does not represent a committee view. A rather, fomc participants write down their individual views of the most likely path for the economy, conditional on each participants view of t appropriate Monetary Policy. We tabulate those submissions and we publish them as the sep. Given the unusually high level of uncertainty about the outlook, many participants noted that they see a number of reasonably likely paths for theu economy, and that it is not possible to identify with confidence a single path as the most likely one. Nonetheless, we believe that regular publication of the sephe provides a useful perspective ol the way fomc participants are assessing the path ahead. What the june sep shows is a general expectation of an economic recovery beginning in the second half of this year and lasting over the next couple of years, supported by interestin rates that remain at their current level near zero. Of course, my colleagues and i r will continue to base our policy decisions on the full range of plausible outcomes, and not on a particular forecast. This Risk Management approach is the best way we can promote our maximum employment and price stability goals in these unusually uncertain c circumstances. Finally, i want to acknowledge the tragic events that have again put a spotlight on the pain of Racial Injustice in this country. The Federal Reserve serves the entire nation. We operate in, and are part of, many of the communities across the country where americans are grappling with and expressing themselves on issues of racial equality. I speak for my colleagues throughout the Federal Reserve system when i say there is no place at the Federal Reserve for racism and there should be no place for it in our society. Everyone deserves the opportunity to participate fully in our society and in our economy. These principles guide us in all we do, from Monetary Policy, to our focus on diversity and inclusion in our workplace, and to our work to ensure fair access to credit across the country. We will take this opportunity to renew our steadfast commitment to these principles. S we understand that the work of the fed touches communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We are committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy and to help assure that the recovery from this difficult period will be as robust as possible. Thank you, i look forward to our questions. For the first question, nick. Yes, thanks, chairmann powel. Wall street journal. Want to ask about the Economic Projections and i realize these are more of an educated guess at this point. Do they suggest the Committee Sees quite a large output gap over the next two years, and yet the committee did notye take any steps today to reinforce your forwardte guidance. My questions are, first, what are you hoping to learn by waiting . Second, how might that change a response . And third, how close is the committee to reaching a decision on a more concrete Forward Guidance and whether yield caps might reinforce that guidance. So first i would say that we think that Monetary Policy today is currently a position to support the economy in this challenging time. If we didnt think that the course we would t change our policy now. Know we lowered our policy ratee very quickly, quickly than others and reset will keep it there and tell the economy has what is the effects of the virus and is on track to achieve our goals. You can see that in the thought plot as i think you pointed out that overwhelmingly fomc participants expect as a baseline expectation no rate increase at least through 2022, and if you look at surveys and market participants, Financial Market prices, et cetera those also properly reflect and long spell. The first thing is monitor policy isnt good place and thats well understood in a the markets. Secondly, weve also taken strong measures to support the flow of credit in the economy as a mentioned and third were continuing asset prices in coming months atth a relatively high level. For all those reasons we feel like policy is now at a good place. As we look ahead we see a path ahead for the economy is highly uncertain that continues to defend to really significant degree on the path of the pandemic. So at this meeting what we did was as i mentioned, we looked in some depth at Forward Guidance and asset purchases and looked carefully at those. We also received a briefing on the historical experience with yield curve control. We will continue those discussions and upcoming meetings and evaluate our stance and communications as more information about the trajectory of the economy becomes available. I would just say in terms of what were looking for, we expect to get a better understanding of the economys trajectory and particularly i wish the best to play those tools to achieve those goals. Thats really what were looking to achieve, and asg you can see we are actively at work on that. Next. Thank you so much for taking our questions. Im curious about your Inflation Forecasts which are pretty low across the board across the horizon. I guess given how low you see inflation in the coming years, why is policy appropriate now and why not just throw everything you can at it currently . I guess if you could talk a little bit about what virgins use internal back to the 2 target . Current policy stance is appropriate, remember, we are using our emergency 13th relenting tools to it and oppressive extent. With asset purchases and we have now said will not go lower than this. But were prepared to adjust as appropriate and richer as effective lower bound. With all of our tools in use in a strong weight and so what were waiting for is to learn more. I think actually if you look at the may may employment report a pretty good probably the biggest date of surprise anybody can remember. Its a pretty good illustration of just how uncertain these times are. The economy is reopening. Were going to learn a whole lot about the path of economy in the next in coming months. Thats really what were looking for. In terms of inflation, you will know that we had 128 month expansion, and we never did quite get inflation back to 2 on asymmetric, sustained basis. We close for the last couple of years but we never did quite get there. I think we have to be humble about our ability to move inflation up, and particularly unemployment is going ton be about most estimates of a natural rate for certainly above the median in our sep well through the end of, past the end of 2022. I think were think weree in the right place now. We are looking carefully at what come as a learn more and better understand the path of the economy, we will be assessing whats the best way to put all of our tools to achieve our goals in the best possible way. And i will just say again, the may employment report was a welcome surprise come very pleased. We hope we get many more like it but i think were to be honest, its a long road. Its pending on how you count to, well more than 20 Million People displaced in the labor market. Its going to take some time, and were going w to be deployig our tools, all of our tools, to their full extent in pursuit of that, of those goals, however long it takes. Okay, steve. Thank you, mr. Chairman. I think i understand how the fed might react in the event things come out worsese than expected. I think i dont understand how you might react to things come out better than expected, kind of a a variant on his other questions. C how firm is a commitment to low Interest Rates . If things end up better to stick with his low Interest Rates as you projected them . Or is it specific for example, unemployment or inflation that is animating where you might go and what are those numbers youre looking for that might cause you to change about the policy as now is projected . Je we just had a period of unemployment as you know that was well below 4 , hanging around 3. 5 the lasted two years. During that time we saw a lot of great things happening in the labor market, things we would love to get back to. We didnt see any problems with price inflation. Based inflation didnt react much. Iea would say we would be lookig to get inflation back up, and we would be prepared to tolerate pretty low, and will come in fact, not tolerate the welcome very low ratings unemployment just based on what we saw in the last expansion. Again, we are not thinking about raising rates. We are not even thinking about thinking about raising rates. What we are thinking thatt is providing support for this economy. We do think this is going to taketo some time. I think most forecasters believe that. It would be great if we got a whole bunch more months of job creation like that, notwithstanding that, as an agent theres just a lot of people that are unemployed and it seems quite likely there will be a Significant Group at the end of, even after a lot of strong job growth that will still be struggling to find jobs and will still be providing strong accommodation for that. Thanks very much, chairman powell. There have been plenty of comparisons with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Is that scenario sort of that moreio dire as were looking at a more traditional and sudden recession . Under you at allsi concerned tht the performance, the Strong Performance of the stock market in the last few weeks is disconnected to the economic reality . I think that the Great Depression is a a good exampler a likely outcome or a model for whats happening here. I reallys dont. Theres just so many fundamental differences. First, they government response has been so fast and so forceful. The origin was quite different. This b was a very an economy that was in healthy place. Of course every economy has a longer one challenge that includes our economy. Notwithstanding that 50 year low in unemployment and the longest expansion in our history, and every reason to think that it continue. Thats different from what happened when the time of the depression started. The Financial System was in very good shape, much better capitalized. Its just not the right model. I would say we are learning, every month the passes were seeing more, learning more, and particularly the next few months will be very w important in learning what the real story will be. Because we will see a significant incoming data about the opening of economy, the reopening of the economy. I would sayec assuming that the disease remains or becomes pretty much underh control, i think what you see is a very weak secondquarter, historically weak, and then an expansion that builds momentum over time. People m adjust probably a litte bit gradually to somey of the activities that involve getting together in large groups, in close quarters. Those would be the harder parts of the economy to recover. But ultimately reducing a full recovery over time. Thats really what i think ive personally seen. You can see significant job growthjo in coming months as people return to the jobs but you are still going to face probably an extended time we will be difficult for many find work, and thats what you see in really many, many forecast at this point. That doesnt mean its right but thats a broad expectation, certain not the depression forecast. Thank you. F chris from the associate press. Thank you for taking the question. In the projection you didnt change, policymakers didnt change the forecast for long run unemployment. So that suggests that all of you so far dont see the facility prospects for longterm damage, but still what kind of data are you looking at here to gauge the potential for longerterm hits to the economy even as with some of these, even as that with sog like the may jobs report that could still of people return from temporary layoffs, still could be permanent job losses . What kind of data are you looking at to gauge the potential impact . Its not the risk for the next two months but its a risk over time of lasting damage to the productive capacity of the united states, typically in two forms. One through extended periods of employment here people lose contact with the labor force, they get outlo of touch with the skills they need and a hard time getting back in and its very damaging to peoples lives and their working lives, and it also just lowers in a way it could increase the Unemployment Rate thatea it can also lower the lar force Participation Rate which is almost worse and wait to people dropping out of the labor force will be needed in the labor force working. The other is just businesses, humor, a shock like this that just comes in, its like a Natural Disaster. You would a lot of perfectly good businesses, smaller and medium mediumsize businesses that may not have a lot of resources to sustain them, to a go out of businessss permanently in a situation like r that, like this will really therere was no reasn for it. Of course businesses will go in and out, theyll all the time and thats a healthy thing in capitalism. That something has to happen but this is different. Those are the things weve been worried about. We didnt change youre right though, we didnt change a longer an estimate of potential growth or of the Unemployment Rate. I would say in my thinking the reason i i didnt change mine s that i think we can avoid that or avoid much of that, most of it even. We do that with measures that keep people in their homes, that support hiring, the support growth and avoid unnecessary avoidable business insolvencies. Thats all the things were trying to do. Basically, if you look at what happened, as i mentioned there something somewhere short of 25 Million People have been displaced, even after the good mate Unemployment Rate. What were trying to do is create an environment which they have the best chance either to go back to the old job or to get a new job. Thats kind of the most important part of this exercise, and maybe, its probably hopeful at this point to say that we wont have a longer one damage to the economy and these numbers will not change. I think its way too early to be changing longer runs. These are not meant to be short run numbers. They are longer and assessments, so i have not changed my and im hopeful that i wont have to change it. Good afternoon, chairman powell. Im struggling with two things and im hoping you can provide clarity. As the ongoing bond buying program, you say that it is needed to continue the smooth posting of markets butsa i guess most of us are not releasing stability in markets right now, so if you could kind of get some clarity of what you think the needs to continue to be smooth atnu that level. Second is, youre just talking about that concerns about small and mediumsize Companies Going out of business during this, and i guess the main Street LendingProgram Still isnt running yet. When you expect loans to start happening . Do you think the twomonth delay is hurt the chances of some companies surviving . Thereni have been gauge in market function, although not fully back to where you would say they were, for example, in february before the pandemic arrives. We dont take those gains for grantedho though. This is a highly fluid situation, and were not taking ass i i pointed out in my statement, those purchases are clearly also supporting highly accommodative, or accommodative financial conditions, and thats a f good thing. I think its better able to achieve its goals and so weve used the time well, i think, and were now in the final runup to starting the facility. What you did saw earlier this week or late, whenever we did it in the last few days was we lowered the minimum loan size and increased the maximum loan size and lengthened the maturity. So borrowers will get a twoyear delay before they make principle payments and oneyear delay on interest. We had been hearing from borrowers and lenders that these would be very helpful. We made the changes and were putting them through the facility. The next step will be to register lenders. At that time loans can begin to be made. Shortly after that, the facility itself will be opened and the facilities the loans can be sold 95 of the loans and 95 across the board in the main street facility can be sold. So all of that should happen quickly now and i do think that this is has been a challenging project, but i think weve come to a better place and by the way, were going to be prepared to adapt further if we need to and thats true of all of our facilities, these are unique, theres no playbook here. You have to draw this up and then try it out and weve been, you know, very willing to adapt and well continue to be very willing to adapt. Matt from bloomberg. Hello, chair powell, this is matt from bloomberg news. I wont ask you about regulatory for forebearance, and to prevent banks from closing amidded the hardships from the pandemic. And households in dire straitsment i wonder if theres any consideration at the fed for forebearance measures or from businesses going under because they cant meet those paymentsment there have been tweaks to the Paycheck Protection Program on the fiscal side to address this, but im asking you about the regulatory side as well, thank you. We can make changes to Bank Regulation supervision. I dont know that we have the ability to make changes, for example, in mortgage payments, if thats what youre thinking or credit card payments. Thats really something that could be legislative or it could just be what the banks themselves are doing. Theres been a tremendous amount of forebearance on the part of the banks and i guess our roles would be to encourage it and that would not be any Legal Authority to make and weve encouraged those decisions. I hope thats responsive to your question. Mcr. Thank you, mr. Chairman. I know your loathe to weigh too much on fiscal policy, but do you think its important that congress extend the extra Unemployment Benefits . I think we try to keep our comments on fiscal policy at a high level and ill come to your specific question, but let me just say this. This is the biggest economic shock in the u. S. And in the world, really, in living memory. We went from the lowest level of unemployment in 50 years to the highest level in close to 90 years and we did it in two months, extraordinary. And appropriately, the response from fiscal authorities has been large, forceful, and very quick by the standards of these things. Roughly 3 trillion congress has authorized and thats benefitting households, laid off workers, small, medium and large businesses, hospitals, state and local governments, 14 of gdp. Its in a class by itself in terms of both of the size and the speed of it. And its also pretty innovative. You know, both the ppp and the Unemployment Insurance are quite innovative in american context and there were difficulties implementing it, but thats really a function of their novelty, i think. This program by the way, let me add, the fed, we both innovatively and proactively and aggressively as well. You put those together and all of that is making a difference now. You look at income data and the expanded Unemployment Insurance and the stimulus checks have gone a long way to producing lost income from job loss. I think youre seeing it in the job market data and many are giving the ppp credit on that front and in keeping Small Businesses going. So, its so far, its a good response and its having a big effect. You get to the question is, its big, and everyone can see that its big. Is it going to be big enough . And thats a question and the question for the question that ive been concerned about, really, is this issue of longer run damage to the economy. Were doing a fair job of getting through the first few months, more than a fair job. That group of people who wont be able to get back to work quickly, what about them . That could be many millions of people, could have worked in the parts of the economy that wont go back request i cannily. We want them in the labor force and possibly, probably will need further support. I would say this, its possible that we will need to do more and its possible that congress will need to do more. In terms of the 600 Unemployment Insurance, i wouldnt try to give congress advice on the specifics of that. I know theyre looking at, i mean, i know from both talking to people and reading in the papers that theyre looking at a whole bunch of different possible approaches Going Forward and some seem promising so were happy to give advice if people ask for it, but probably not publicly. Thank you. David. Thank you, chairman powell and pick up on what was asked a moment ago. You have been studious about threading the needle in the speeches and colloquy thats followed and not giving to congress, but likely theres going to be a need for more stimulus policy in the future. Im going to try a hypothetical and you can rebuff it if you want. If you found yourself up in a congressmans office and held up a report as a surprise, said to you its an indicating that we can put on the brakes. I wonder what would you say . Your message throughout this crisis has been one of how impre impressed it is, how much urgency there is and seeing that from the Federal Reserve. I wonder if you worry that that sense of urgency isnt being matched and what the consequences of that might be. If theres a fear that the fed could be seen as as we look at the unemployment report and through the summer and more policy to wait and see what happens here in subsequently reports and a quick second question, you talk about a fear of a second wave of this. And it strikes me about us weathering this crisis and getting through the storm. It seems as i will is as i listen to the chatter from the white house and there isnt agreement on what getting through this means and you have an administration now inclined to, if not direct, be content with states perhaps opening up their economies too early. And what does that mean defeated the virus, or getting to a i will provide context so im not i want to be clear about the picture, one way to look at the picture, really. And that is this, if you can get at this by looking at, you know, the widest measure of unemployment, of labor market flak, if you will, is the u6 measure and the one we look at and talk about all the time is called u3 by economists and the one that has a much broader measurement of slack in the economy is u6. So, in u6, the u6 level of unemployment has tripled from 7 to 21 and that amounts to 22 million additional people who are who have lost work in the economy by either going to parttime or Something Like that. Thats in the low 20s and thats post the may employment report. You can get at it a different way and just look at the regular Unemployment Rate and you can take the 21 people listed as unemployment and add for the ones miscoded and take to those people suddenly out of the labor force and those have gone up 24 million. Those are two different measures of what happened. 22, 24 Million People, got to get them back to work and somehow weve all as a country got to get them back to work. They didnt do anything wrong and this is a Natural Disaster and i really think the responses so far have been great. Thats the way i think about it. I would just in terms of the may employment report, its so into is to see, i am ooh, i think what people were thinking was youd start to get the back to work kind of numbers in june, july and august, very few people saw it in may. Almost no one saw that happening as early as mid may, but it did. And so, you know, we dont know fully what that means, whether its a timing change or whether it will prove to be much more than that. We are going to have to wait and see. It is, as i mentioned earlier, its clear evidence of just how uncertain things are and how humble we have to be about ability to really have confident predictions as opposed to just predictions. Bottom line, i would say thats the key thing that people need to understand, theres a lot of work to do in the labor market and were going to stick with that until the work is done. That is something were going to do with all of our tools, and i think it may require congress to help as well. It may, but thats going to be their decision. On you also asked about the second wave. So we have major responsibilities and powerful tools, but the decision about when to reopen the economy is one for elected officials at the state and local and federal level, and you know, if they ask we dont have any particular expertise here at the fed in pandemics or coronaviruses or anything like that. We talk to experts, but you know, so we dont have anything special to add on that. I would just say its kind of selfevident, i think, that if it happens, you know, the issue would be,first of all, peoples health, but secondly, you could see a public loss of confidence in parts of the economy that will be already slow to recover so it could hurt the recovery even if you dont have a National Level pandemic, just a series of local ones, of local spikes, could have the effect of undermining peoples confidence in travelling, in restaurants, in entertainment, i think that involves getting people together in small groups and feeding them or flying them around so those could be hurt. So it would not be a positive development and ill just leave it at that. Edward barnes. Thank you, chairman powell, for the question. And in may we saw 55, at least 55 companies file for bankruptcy. Do you think that it is too late, first of all . Second of all, the future of these facilities, is this a oneyear impact to the economy, to the facilities . Or is this a multiple year . If so, how many years . We have, you know, significant interest, we think, and also, remember, lots and lots of companies are getting financed, too. The banks are lending. The markets are open, you know, you have a much better lending climate than certainly than we had in february and march. We dont think its too late though. And we do expect it to be up quite soon. In terms of the timing of these things, so, you know, well leave them open as for new loans as long as they need to, that will be a decision we make of course with our colleagues at the Treasury Department. And at certain points there wont be a need for further loans and any assets will be there. And so if thats, i dont know if thats a part of your question, too. But i would just say at that point the useful role of the Federal Reserve is probably at an end at this point. We dont have any expertise in managing pools of credit assets, loans, if you will, or bonds and we dont want to we dont want to be part of the decisions that have to be made to manage such a portfolio. So wed be looking to have that done either someplace else or, you know, by a third party or the Treasury Department or something. Were working for ideas for that. Our real focus now is on getting these facilities going and getting them to do the job that they need to do. Thank you. Reuters. Thank you. I have two quick questions. One is if we have hit bottom for the economy and the second question is regarding the rate that the pandemic has racial inequality. What effect do you think you can factor in those disparities, when factoring in i would say that many forecasters had expected a bottom for the economy around the middle of the year, with a huge range of uncertainty. I think the labor market, the evidence of one jobs report is that the labor market may have hit bottom in may. We dont know that. Were going to see. And you know, many forecasters widely expect a recovery over the second half of the year. So, it is possible, but the thing is, were not going to overreact to a single data point. Were going to be very careful about reaching any conclusions about good data or bad data. So, i think, were going to be here with our tools supporting this economy as long as needed and theres possibility that the bottom has come to the labor market. Well know more as we go forward. In terms of the effect of the pandemic on inequality, what you see the pandemic, of course, hits everybody, but in economic sense, it hits those industries that are that involve groups of people in tight groups either in places where its the travel, leisure, restaurant, bars, those kinds of Service Economy jobs, and so, a lot of the lost jobs were from people who work in the Service Economy dealing with the public, for example, and relatively compared to other jobs, relatively low wages. So, if you just look at what that is, unemployment has gone up more for hispanics, more for africanamericans, and women have born an extraordinary, a notable share of the burden beyond their percentage in the work force. So, thats really a really, really unfortunate because if you just go back two months where we were was we had effectively the first tight labor market in a quarter century and for the last couple of years before the pandemic hit, you were seeing wages go up the most for people at the lower end of the wage spectrum and that was great and we were meeting with people from low and moderate income communities all over the country and hearing, dont change this, do whatever you can. Keep this going, this is the best labor market weve seen and we had every expectation, every reason to expect that this would continue and then that comes. So its heartbreaking. And you know, we want to get it back so we really want to get it back and so, i think we learned a number of things over the course of the last few years, one of them is that, you know, you can have three and a half unemployment for a couple of years and really, you see modest moves in wages and relatively, almost invisible moves in inflation. So, that was not anybodys understanding of the structure of the economy, i think, or most peoples anyway. So, we can use our tools to support the labor market and support the economy. We can use them until we do fully recover and thats what were planning to do. You know, we dont target different groups, what we are cognizant of the fact that late in the last cycle, late in the last expansion, the benefits really do go more to people at the lower end of the wage spectrum for the first time in many years, when labor markets are tight, when unemployment is low and so we would really like to get back to that, get back to that place. Victoria hi, victoria with politico. I just would like to follow up on a couple of things that have already been followed. First of all, on fiscal policy, you all obviously put out your summary of Economic Projections today. Im cure why us to what extent your policy is factored in or not factored into those projections and how more or less fiscal policy might affect those projections and then my other question is, on main street, youve mentioned multiple times that, you know, that the fed and treasury are willing to expand the program further. My question, whats the threshold for those types of changes . Is it just making sure that borrowers that want to borrow through the program are able to do that . In terms of the way we do forecasts is we we dont we dont tend to incorporate things were highly uncertain about so i think the forecast would not have included substantial additional, you know, big additional fiscal support for the economy. Maybe a modest amount. Something that looks like a low end guess on what might come out of the current negotiations. Thats basically what would be in the baseline. If there were more fiscal support youd see better results sooner, but thats a question for congress. You know, were spending a lot and thats really what they takes it to the side n terms of main street and our willingness to expand further, one thing were looking at very strongly looking at is nonprofits, and is there a way to incorporate them into that facility or a similar facility. Thats another dimension. If we had the great idea for changing main street, we would have done it and we have done some things i think are really very positive lig lately here. As we learn more, it could be in terms of size, in terms of lots of different things, but i think we have a good product to go it market with now and i think it will get out there soon and you know, well see and well be willing to continue to adapt. Thank you. The vast majority of people have been laid off are expecting to be recalled by their employers. At this point what is your expectation of how much of these job losses will be permanent . A reliable estimate of that. Clearly not everyone will go back. But, and i would say many will go back, but whats going to be the remainder when, you know, when we reach sort of what is the new normal . Its so uncertain, but it could be a good number of millions of people, i think, in many estimates, but these id say youre so early in the process, for example, people are going back and looking at other significant changes in the economy and theyve seen how many people go back when, for example, theres technological change and things like that. You may have seen some of the research and you come up with an estimate. You know, its just going to be very hard to say. But my assumption is that there will be a significant chunk, well into the millions and i dont want to give you a number because its going to be a guess, but well, well into the millions of people who dont get to go back to their old job and in fact, there isnt a there may not be a job in that industry for a time, and maybe years people going back to the job. When people lose a job, if they can find a job in their industry, thats usually the fastest way. If you know other people in that industry thats usually the fastest. If you have to go another industry, its harder and thats where you see people fall out of the labor force and its very tough on their lives. We all know people to whom that happened. And hence, our desire to do what we can to support this and support this recovery with the tools that we have. Nancy marshall first of all, im wondering i want to go back to the issue of inequality, im wondering what more could the economic inequality in this country . I know you said you dont target certain groups. Is there a way to use the Unemployment Rate as some point of a bench point something you can keep track of . We do track unemployment by all kind, as you know, all kind of demographics, particularly the africanamerican Unemployment Rate which reached an alltime low since the data started being kept in the modern era. Of course, its still close to twice the white unemployment, it is twice the white Unemployment Rate, or it was. Its certainly much higher now. The best thing to do with our monetary tools is to look at the evidence we saw with our own eyes so recently, which is that the economy can have very low unemployment. Very low. It could be lower than we were without seeing financial imbalances, without seeing inflation getting out of control. We frankly didnt even get inflation back up to target. Without getting wages where they should be. Thats the biggest thing we could do. Inequality is something thats been with us increasingly for more than four decades and its not really related to Monetary Policy, its or its more related to, there are a lot of theories on what causes it, but its something thats more or less been going up consistently for more than four decades and there are a lot of different theories, one of which suggests that its globalization and with technology and called for rising levels of skills and aptitudes in education and that u. S. Educational attainment kind of flattened out certainly relatives to our peers, flattened out over that period. So, a lot so that means if youre on the right side of those trends, then those things are good for you. If youre not, then your wages are going to stagnate and wages for the bottom, you know, 10 havent really gone up in real terms in a very long time. Over a long period of time whereas wages for people at the top, compensation, anyway you cut it, before taxes, after taxes, transfers, any way you cut it, compensation has gone up a whole lot at the top and hasnt for the people at the bottom. Then its gone up for other groups, but not the bottom in inflation adjusted terms. We call it out as an important factor in the economy and we will use our tools to support maximum employment and take that definition to heart. But obviously, thats something thats going to require all of society and an all of government response. Thank you. For the last question well go to michael mr. Chairman, michael mckee, Bloomberg Television and radio. I came across a statistic the other day that amazed me, since your march 23rd emergency announcement every single stock in the s p 500 has delivered a positive return and im wondering, even the levels of the market right now, whether you or your colleagues feel there is a possible bubble blowing that could pop and set back the recovery significantly or that we might see misallocation that could leave us worse off when this is over and second, inequality is not just about wages, its also about wealth and a number of studies have suggested by keeping rates low for so long and targeting the markets after the great financial crisis that the fed did contribute to wealth inequality in this country and wonder if theres some tweak or message you could give that could affect that. What weve targeted is broader financial conditions. If you go back to the end of february, early march, you had basically the World Markets realized at just about the same time, i remember that monday, that there was going to be a Global Pandemic and that this possibility that it would be contained in one province in china for all practical purposes was not going to happen. It all it was iran, italy, korea, and then it became clear and markets from that point forward, investigators investors for a period wanted to sell everything that wasnt cash and they didnt want any risk at all. The markets stopped working. They stopped working and companies couldnt borrow, they cant roll over their debt. People couldnt borrow. So thats the kind of situation that can be financial turbulence and malfunction. A Financial System thats not working can greatly amplify the negative effects of what was clearly going to be a Major Economic shock. So what our tools were put to work to do was to restore the markets to function. And i think, you know, some of that has really happened as i mentioned in my opening remarks, and thats a good thing. So, were not looking to achieve a particular level of any asset price. What we want is investors to be pricing in risk like markets are supposed to do. Borrowers are borrowing. Lenders are lending. Were not looking to a particular level. I think our principal focus is on the state of the economy and on the labor market and on inflation. Inflation, of course, is low and we think its very likely to remain low for some time, below our target. So, really, its about getting the labor market back and getting it in shape. Thats been our major focus and i would say, you know, if we were to hold back because we would never do this, but the idea that just the concept that we would hold back because we think asset prices are too high, others may not think so, but we just decided that thats the case. What would happen to those people . What would happen to the people that were actually legally supposed to be serving . Were supposed to be pursuing maximum and stable price. Were pursuing stability, but there you have a Banking System thats so much better capitalized, so much stronger, better aware of its risks, better at managing its risks, more highly liquid and you have all of those things and theyve been lending, taking in deposits. Theyve been a source of strength in this situation. So i would say were tightly focused on real economy goals and again, were not focused on moving asset prices in a particular direction at all, its just we want markets to be working and i think partly as a result of what weve done, they are working and you know, we hope that continues. Thank you very much. Binge watch book tv this summer. Every saturday evening at 8 p. M. Eastern, settle in and watch your favorite nonfiction authors, starting with Doris Kearnes goodwin, wellknown for her work on americans president s especially team of rivals. Next saturday we feature best selling author dave maranis. All summer on cspan2. President trump bet with black conservative talk show host and Community Leaders at the white house and talked about justice restorm and opportunity zones and funding to black colleges and universities. This runs about a half hour. Thank you very much. Were with friend of mine and members of the Africanamerican Community and well be talking about law enforcement, business, education, health and various other things. Tomorrow were going to dallas and were going to start our rallies back up now. Weve had a