Transcripts For CSPAN2 Jung Pak Becoming Kim Jong Un 20240713

Makes him tick. The book is already earned praise from among the leading speakers. And we are fortunate that they will spend the next at work with us breaking down what we need to know about how they operate and who they are and what is going on in north korea these days. The bring a wealth of knowledge to this conversation. The both are former intelligence analysts and represent the very best of the previous profession. Each are tremendous callings while in government and their tremendous friends now. And in addition to be deeply informed and formed kind and deadly smart. Theyre also a ton of fun. So before turn it over to them i do want to note that we are in a collective and that many questions and will commute. You can do so, by sending email to events at brookings. Edu or via twitter, and becoming kim. With that is my dog to turn it over now. It one of spend a few minutes talking about what it is like to cover a country like north korea. Your book begins with you talking about analyzing your career. In your job as an analyst, cia and making the article and as you know i started at the cia two days before 911. In my years there put your career, just after kim jung un has been chosen. In between us, two decades of covering a career. Its indeed hard country. Can you talk a little bit about your job in north korea and how you analyze the best of information and miss information and connecting the dots. You talk about how your job is putting together piece of the puzzle. Different pieces of the puzzle and so on. So thank you to ryan for that amazing introduction. It is sue, i can never get tired of your telling people about our first date. This is a way pg conversation. She does have a lot of stuff in that opening. So sue, thank you for doing this. Im so glad we are able to do this. Do this with the audience. We cant do this in person. So think what is so interesting about how our past came together. You covered the father and i cover the sunbird and i think that even on the cia website, more within cia because just help us to learn and connect the dots. You have different bubbles coming in at different times from different periods and different places. We have to figure that out. But think in north korea and you see this now where all of this information is coming in about whether he is alive. For ill or whatever the case may be. Its because north korea specific passages on operation security in the Information Security it takes north korea the hardest target. As you know, they ran throughout the building. So i think they dont want to the regime doesnt want information to get out or within north korea itself. And because of that, only a small circle of advisors any handful want to know where what they are doing in any moment. I think that is to make sure not to get any crazy ideas about protest. But is also to make sure the people on the outside, and china also become that they were in the dark where the regime is pretty given all of this, i think a lot of nato for years. Given all that this operations security, their hold on information makes it really difficult to actually see the inside here. Jung pak. [silence]. About the need for checking on the book. Sue terry you know this book right. Everybody, if you walk into any cia analyst office, former or in langley, you see over to the side or on the top shelf. He reminds me of one of the things about being a north korea follower is in an end the list is structured. You have to live with all of their livelihoods and when there are no answers coming up to provide answers. Its emotional to get that target. And the stakes are high. Theres a reason that north korea is a target. Its a hard target and the reason why we study as much. Its in a position in the middle of the most economically vibrant part of the world. China and south korea, also with the troops are present. And south korea and japan. And so given all of those factors and the fact that we dont have very much absolute insight into the leadership. That makes into very vulnerable place. In ireland requires a lot of checking of the assumptions otherwise. Or we are following a wrong path. Jung pak listen want to north korea. Was the biggest perception the people have about the agency in one of their life, not being in the government anymore. What you miss and not miss. Its a weird. Sue terry so when i arrived in september of 2017 after nine years of the agency, i remember sitting at my desk and looking at my one screen. Remember how we had multiple screens. Just looking at mike one small screen and feeling like i was deaf dumb and blind. And what are they listening to. What are they saying. Talking to them. What is the government saying. So that was a really difficult time. We had to find other sources of information. I think you found that two. That it was difficult. To get in the information environment. What did you think when you lofgren a jung pak what do i not snow. You become information obsessed. So you go through this wealth troll so moving on to kim. But you mentioned there is it tendency by analysts and scholars the media to portray somebody as a person theres a tendency silence to underestimate or overestimate and you pay with a cant capabilities and intentions questioning his nationality. And of course is not the only one. We similarly covered other people. And they were making fun of his hair and things like that. His obsession with films and womanizing. Could you talk to us a little bit about that. Kim jung un is being portrayed and the consequences of doing that. Sue terry it is easy and you know this, youve seen this all of your life. In your career. I think it is because of that access. There are the two because of the way they work. And so, that is one of the things that i wanted to do with the book is to provide a full picture. It depends on where your gaze is. I think with the comments about mayor imaging, that you cant be projecting your own assumption are your own belief in what i would do the situation is get permission. So i think the whole well that goes to kim a how do they do this. Dont they know that we would hit them. And we would destroy them. So when you look from the north korea on that in perspective, that is something that i tried to explain. What are the drivers about all of this action. And what is the baggage. What is he mindful of. What is he aspire to. And how does that evident our manifest. Which might be crazy and unpredictable is actually the rationality on the part of kim. Jung pak will most surprised you about kim jung un. Has your view of him changed over the years since he took over. Has he met your expectations. Sue terry in 2018, it was really jarring. Remember that friday which everyone seemed to be talking about how he is different. Yes he is different from his father and grandfather. At the olympics, south korea and the United States. Holding his neighbor at bay. But it was different. He studied in the west. And he wants to be more modern. Switch about this opportunity rated and this goes back to how uncomfortable it is to be an analyst in korea. It made me challenge my thoughts about him. What are we saying and what is that means. What is this outreach really providing. I remember we were at a conference and there was a really blustery and frightening statement, after the thinning. All of us were like thats the north korea that we know. There issuing threats and telling us theyre going to use their weapons and all of that. I tried to get into the book, is to try to show that he is still growing and you have to be ready and responsible. And adjust our analyses based on the situation. Jung pak deal of fun fact that most people dont know about him. Sue terryfor example, his favord was sushi. And that he thune. [laughter]. Sue terry you do sometimes when you write, the more you feel like you are learning from the writing process. What i thought was really interesting was the role of women in north korea. So i thought that was what was really different because he did not have his life out in public. He try to keep it in the back in the background as much as possible. I thought that was in there many cases that he would bring his wife and one was that she was young. And his father told him to get married in 2009. Poland to get married because although this isnt explosives, because it would make him into a man. In korean culture, not a man until you get married have your own family. So that gave him that sort of being a married able man i know we will be talking about what is happening now. But i also think that the reason this life is in his ruler that he wanted to be sure that she came to mind. Inattentive women and kim jung un we dont know if he was thinking around but this family centered man. But i suspect, that there should be no talking in the background. Which side of the family is going to be the next in line. So i think that, while it makes me think and i hope its in parent to the readers. He said the 20 yearold kids anymore paredes 36 yearold personnel. Jung pak is actually more of my favorite part of your book. That chapter on kim jung un, wife. In her role. He linked her role and a promise that was different. For more peaceful times in modern. And how eight normalizes the kings status pretty north korea. Nuclear power, can you imagine that is an husband and a father. People were like president kim jung un and President Trump. And you write in your book, the public appearances of kim jung un, are things in good humor salvation and deprivation to the people greeted the existence of a possibly tense as a couple. Inaudible. Sue terry i think it was definitely in the 80s. Now everybody is talking about the potential of someone succeeding if anything was to happen to kim jung un. What about his sister. Sue terry it is clear that he doesnt have anybody is pretty they share mother and father. And kim went through the printing the family treatment getting rid of the others. And marginalizing. If anybody gets, kim jung un and the sister is in a position of potentially a role. In children as they grow up. But this is anyones guess. So theres a lot of speculation about who might take over if he is incapacitated or dead. These are real questions. North korea regardless of where kim jung un is. North korean still have weapons in a cash of biological and chemical weapons. So north korea has and this is a reminder that the absence is a reminder about how we should be preparing for all the scenarios. Jung pak what is your best estimate on what is going on there. I know that we have so many conflicting reports nobody knows what is your best guess. What is your take. And maybe wallowing wait for her to get back on because were having technical difficulties. Maybe i should talk a little bit about what i think is going on. Very one can hear me. Just to talk a little bit about my sense of what is going on. No confirmed reporting obviously. So no windows. That is the answer no one knows what is happening with him. There are a couple of data points that i do find interesting. Since april 11th, he has not been seen. We know that. Why he has been out of public view in the past, is highly unusual that he did miss two very important events pretty putting april 15th, celebration of his grandfathers estate. The army date celebration on saturday. Not missing this april 15th celebration, is significant. Because he has never missed that event when coming to power. That is noteworthy. Another interesting fact do think is that who curious the breakpoints about all of this. You would think, we do monitor the vehicle. They could come out and say its all fake news. They are not doing that. So i was just asking you what your best estimate on itself was pretty and why you were gone, i was just talking about my assessment. We dont know what is happening but it is curious, something is up. Things are unusual. Speech of something is off but were not going going to know what it is but the question about that remain about what the applications are up his absence. I think it would be in his interest to show up sooner rather than later. The reporters information, was not like what its like in 2014. In some rumors are going to get around. I something it is interesting that all of this chatting is going on in chinese chat room. And so all of this information, all of this rumors are going to get out. And i think probably too sensitive and need and mansion for show up sooner rather than later. Jung pak you do think that he is most likely to succeed if something were to happen to him. Speedo i think so, giving all the whispers that the government regime has two elevating that family line. The bloodline. In the propaganda, and all of the histories and all of their education, and all of the landscapes. They would be hard not to have a kim Family Member in the head. And even if that person, why would think that there would have to be a Family Member of the house. Jung pak what kind of rulers with the b. What about a womans touch. What you think. Sue terry we take a look at history. He has five of the seven people who are helping him, at the funeral procession of his father. The first two or three years. And i think, that the family is not strangers to oppression. After use it. To make sure they maintain their survival pretty move we talk about his revival, talking with kim family survival. Not the entirety of the government. Jung pak if they wanted if she wants to take over, didnt think north korea would survive and be stable. Sue terry i think in the near term, the elite would be that they are still contra conscious about sticking their head up were raising their hand in trying to collaborate tate collaborate, to their buddy on the west coast of the east coast. I understand the kim of all of those past few years purges hundreds of officials as a way to keep the late and tried to to make sure that no one support our no one network get very much. Given that, i would expect that in the near term, i dont think the elites who are going to writing a book or anything but i think we have to be careful about thinking of the regime is a gradual. It is fragile but also theres a lot of resilience because are a lot of entrenched interest, money or otherwise, money and power to keep the elites out pretty much. Pretty much along the lines live with the regime once. I also think that given all of the things that have been happening so far in terms of North Koreans, kim has been clear that they cannot obstruct anybody. To protect them. If anything, i think the past two years have shown us that the u. S. Is not a reliable partner pretty south korea is not a reliable partner pretty and north china. The something that i pointed out in the book that have the regime over the decades, that other countries the allies or not, will turn their back on you if push comes to shove. Jung pak so lets talk about the policies towards the United States. In the u. S. Policy towards north korea before getting to the audience questions. So if he is not incapacitated or dead, indeed is alive and well, what can we expect from him in the future. Do you think he will conclude a deal with trump reducing he prefers to deal with trump. Or biden. Sue terry the coming years, if hes alive and well. So i think, what is interesting is that he came into the scene in 2011, or 2012 with a lot of sliger. He said North Koreans didnt have to tighten their belts anymore. You know very well sue, that was his fathers line during the salmon and that winnie introduced his policy, he said that we can have Nuclear Weapons and economic prosperity. What is interesting in the past year there might have to be some belt tightening. That will be a prolonged struggle with the United States i think it will be hard. The people are owing to be in work harder and longer and faster. So seems as though that he has closed the door release kept is a little bit open on engaging with the u. S. I dont know if it would make any big moves now that some of the experts there, it would not be in his interest to deal at this point. Given who knows what. Maybe after the election. In the maybe he feels than whenever it would be, would not be in clement to date. So i think what we are going to see is as a North Koreans, while point is seen as something that they do. To improve their capabilities. I think we are going to see the panel of experts, and private Research Company think tanks. They gotten into this very well. Lowcost weight of generating revenue for the regime. And so i think, as all were going to see him that going to try to maintain his weapons and going to try to bolster himself. In the office of strength. And muddle through. In the way that the press will probably muddle through in the policies the coming months. Jung pak estate in the election year, i dont think its going to be a major thing. But i do think theres going to be provocation when he comes back. When he is recovered. He wants to show that a strong right pretty stomach person. Theres all of these missile tests. That he was gearing up to that read do you think he would prefer to deal with President Trump the second time or president biden. Sue terry i think tank look pretty good for him in terms of foreign relations. He has an elected president who have praised him for his leadership and ignore human rights violations. We dont have human rights envoy in north korea. This present trump in the Trump Administration has earned turn a blind eye the shorter range and other provocative actions. The u. S. South korea relationship is not great. The burden sharing agreement is still outstanding hundred thousand green workers with usbased. Things with china, u. S. China are not great. This started the corona in his doing the worst job. South korea and japan are fighting about the trade dispute has locked them into the fullscale conflict the turn into security and economic realms. So based on how of this some of this disarray the absence of the acute for the lack of the u. S. Level and region. In the fact that kim has had pretty much every rain in terms of these weapons. I think there was more of this kind of environment, i think that either it would net positive for kim. Jung pak solution the policy before north korea. Ultimately that kim is not a sick man. In wealth and present trump since of the word and presumably to, this is not what they are looking for. The President Trump, committed to policymaking the do not hook up with reality. In getting up Nuclear Weapons, what is the right approach than from what we do recommend for you to present trump or president biden. What should we be doing. Sue terry thats the story. In looking at some of the various parts of his personality the race parts of his life. And i build to that. Towards policy recommendation. That was designed it to show that its not just about security guarantees. Then he requires a hospital outside world. He tried to justify his rain. The problem with President Trumps approach about this is that having great real estate and kim does not want the american entrepreneurs running around in this country putting up mcdonalds franchises. He does not want people building railroads or fixing the infrastructure for him. Because he does not want North Koreans uncontrollable inside of the country. Because people with crazy ideas about the economy and democracy. And also the government. He doesnt want that. Hes not a subcontractor. That hotel youre from new york would get used to working with. But as drivers are different. His incentives are different. I think we have to recognize that. Thing also what we do, to her policies into the north Korean People in your strong advocate of the stoop grade is the idea we dont treat the north Korean People as an entity or actors and i think in a lot of scholars and activists and think tank people are working on this. The problem with human rights is that it is not a u. S. Government priority. Issues like that, usually secondary issues. If at all. It is clear that this administration did not have these human rights issues as a priority at all. Give people what they want, use technology to work with technology, companies and activists to try to get more information into north korea. Sue terry on human rights, President Trump to begin with this book supervisor. I remember when he went to south korea. News talking about north koreas human rights. Incentive the union. He did invite the family. And maximum pressure to promising and all of a sudden is completely trusted. I completely agree with you on this pretty for me, its so hard to get information into north korea to help the people. This disinformation. If you live well, what would you say to him. Sue terry so this was a surprise question, which he did. You and i would like to ask, what is the legacy that you want to leave behind. And who or what is the legacy that you want to leave behind. And i think that most people would prefer that he say that i want to have a peaceful north korea where everybody is prosperous. The suspect when he was younger, maybe he had some of the thoughts. But i think that i wonder if how is this ideal for his goals from 2012 2020. And what is learned in between. How optimistic was he in 2011 and 2012 versus 2020. Given the fact that he is not had sanctions and removals and he hasnt had very much success rate of on that front. I think that is what i would like to, but that is something that i think would be really interesting to find out from him. Jung pak and he didnt make a case to do better for his people. But what if he did die or pass or incapacitated. What is his legacy then read. Sue terry it is the worst that he is offer in that the alleged the quality of communism and socialism is gone. As people can not rely on the daily necessities rated you eat what you kill. The think about this when i think about covid19 in north korea. There is no way that theres infections. But the late, some can give to the hospital pretty kim is billing this massive General Hospital in anticipation to treat the covid19 but the really the mass majority of the people who are without safe water, or scrounging around for fed. And they have to rely and smuggling Human Trafficking monthly rate. To try to get to try to scrape by. Its her millions of stories north korea in terms of all the stories that are sort of poignant about the triumph, the human will versus all of the burdens in the repressive nerves of the particular regime. If you remember over the summer there was a woman of died in her apartment and soul with her child. There were, they died of starvation. I wish that we could offer an alternative vision. And i think one of the prominent professors, is winning and national assembly, he had an alternative vision. Working about talking about lots of things. Nuclear weapons, nonproliferation, the how to an cohort if diplomacy and others. Did a better job of showing north korea of what could be possible. And i think we really do have to ramp up the information penetration and focus on how to get different ideas into north korea. Sue terry i can agree with you more. I was very happy to see because i do think its essential to send the right message. There is a life that is possible in south korea. Well get some questions from the audience. First question. This is for that u. S. Government. So this person asked, to what extent do you think kims risk has grown over time. You talk about the tolerance in your book. Has his appetite grown over time. Sue terry one of the premises of the book is that kim is watching us as much as we are watching him. Based on what he has done he has been very aggressive in pressing the accelerator on a Nuclear Weapons program unconventional training et cetera. Other than sanctions which was let out with the summit, he is still standing, he did three icbm tests in 2017, that long ago as a redline that North Koreans would be inviting trouble if they did that. But they got sanctions. And so did a Massive Nuclear test as well. He threatened to hit south korea his son night training for commando raids, he has had mock displays of the south korean president they can do training on how to raid it. Hes done some pretty brazen things. But i think punishment has been pretty subdued. There were sanctions, i thought of the maximum Pressure Campaign was a good policy. I think all of that went away when President Trump said id dont even believe it maximum pressure and hes dismissing north korea human rights violation. He has become bigger batter in boulder because he has perceived a lack of political will to respond to him or punish. You know this too, sanctions are hard to implement. You have to have china on your side you have to make sure all of the partners across the globe, wherever North Koreans are have the capacity to find out a list of activities that are taking place in their country. So i think he has a bigger obsession. But i also wonder, this is something i will be watching for how much of the economic issues, what i worry about is the default is aggressiveness. Its not being chased being self reflective about what he needs to do. But sensing weakness in one sector of the economy he might go all in on the other sector which is the Nuclear Weapons program in military readiness. The economic is even more uncertain with what theyve taken for crony virus. Now they have taken some draconian measures and theres a secondary effect to that the implications with the economy. If particular if he was sick and had major surgery and recovered i wonder if that would make him more risky in the future in terms of his actions or what . We might have a psychological impact right . Yes and he has to show strength. Otherwise how do you keep the elite in line how do you keep the military in line . Which is strange to say for somebody who is overweight and has these issues. It is striking to me how the inconsistency or the consciousness us of kim jong un with his protruding belly smoking a cigarette and ordering the navy for impromptu drill. He has to show strength and is perception of strength is doing these watches. So the institute for defense analysis ask that says the north korea senior military leaders feared kim jong un but did not respect him. Of course you know one of the reasons why kim jong un survived his because of support. We know they have elite loyalty toward kim jong un. What you think of these views of kim jong un . How much they really support them. Im not sure that is exactly the best question its more of our they willing to i mean they were willing to support him in the way he protects their lifestyle. I think that is something to be mindful of as odious as kim jong un might be in the treatment of his people, there are still interests that are tied to him. And the way he has purged people, demoted and shuffled leaders around, that also means they have a stake in the north korean economy as it is. The military party are very much involved in moneymaking operations and the closer you are to the regime the more money you can make the more opportunities you can have. You have to think about it in terms of not loyalty to kim jong un himself but the stability and privilege they are used to. Okay we have more questions someone was asking about how are you handling that today was a big day you are helping for a book tour how are you handling that . In another question this is your first book, what was the best part of writing this book . I was nervous obviously about the book tour and not being able to show people what i have done and what i had produced but there is always a Silver Lining and i think having this webinar will help its different than having it in bookings on an auditorium that holds maybe a hundred 50 or 200 people but with this we can reach hundreds of people who can share in our conversation and hear about north korea especially giving whats going on in the news. I think the worst part was writing late at night. It was having my day job, coming home putting the kids to bed after dinner and starting work at 9 00 p. M. And working until 3 00 a. M. And doing that for a year. And now i still have thats gold jewelry cannot sleep until two or three of the morning and i get up at seven. I thought you got that have a blanket klezmer. I got the gravity blanket and it is not helping. [laughter] okay. Host we have a question that you just answered from New Providence new jersey, this question is from washington d. C. How is he introduced as a young man . Does he travel to china advisors . I guess after the tried to say. Guest one of the first things he did in consolidating power he killed his uncle by marriage in 2013 and one of the criticisms of him in the indictment was he had to make contacts with the chinese and he was more subservient to the chinese and working with the chinese. That something you want to avoid when you are an official and north korea. You dont want to have too much foreign contact. It makes them highly suspicious. Of course there were rumors during the grooming process that he went with his father to china. But the Chinese Government was pretty open about this. There was no criticism, with a chidings government beijing was a first essay congratulations to kim jong un after his fathers death i think that was you had beijing at that point that was very cautious and sensitive to making sure that they have their contacts and making sure they did not defend kim jong un. This is kind of like the tyranny of the week is one colleges said, that even though you have this relatively weak country, you have people that there is a sense without north korean stability you need to have access to kim jong un and have some sort of relationship with him. Host one question was has it become easier to analyze north korea from the time of kim jong un given we have so many Running Services and presumably Better Technology . Guest is it easier . Absolutely there is a lot of information. This is all the result of activists worked and defector work in organizations like the National Endowment for democracy. As well as the state department. I think there is a lot of information coming out. In some of the things we hear about the regime and the grassroots way, as you get a of the atmosphere and some of the things that give us a flavor or a snapshot of whats going on in a particular part of the region. There is a lot of complaining, i think its great information to come out. There is a lot of anxiety there is some isolated criticism of the regime. But the problem is these criticisms are not connected. These are isolated incidents of critiquing the regime and not the harbinger of a people rising up. Host we have time for one last question from the audience. That is, given that information on the outside world has been leaking into north korea over the years, what are your thoughts on why there has not yet been an uprising from his people and similar to the death of the of the south korean president . Guest wiser not been an uprising. The people are not connected in that way that would spur a collective action. An collective action or or protests when the arabs happen there is a sense this is the start of a new era where the people would rise up as a result of technology. But what was seen in Technology North korea, they are not connected to each other people are still very careful about what they say. The horizontal connections that would need to be necessary for any kind of protest are not going to see. This is the irony of all of this. Think the north Korean People are so resilient theyre able to adapt. So many decades of living over the family they live through the famine, they lived through weather events, they lived through a period of want and are living through this regime. The difference now is that they are making money and they are making lots of it. Youre not going to see massive uprising as a result the fact that there are enough people earning money. I have to say one point to, kim jong un is trying to encourage that. He is trying to encourage the u2 can make it big by having him become the center of cosmopolitanism and modern luxury. Its a way of trying to keep those desires contains and directed toward inward toward your self improvement outward in overthrowing the regime. And if the regime can keep uptodate with these peoples aspirations and hopes, i think youre going to have status quo. Host okay well i think our time is come to an end. Thank you, did you have any final comments . Guest no, just to thank you for everything and to bookings and ballantine and all of you in the audience that is joined us today. Im really grateful and really proud of this book. I hope that you like it as much i enjoyed writing it. See what i want to thank everyone for joining us and kudos for a most insightful book that is very timely and of great importance to national security. Writing a highly formative, substantive, objective book of one of the least known leaders in the world was not an easy task. I dont have to tell you, this book is highly readable in terms of history and the narrative of north korea. I promise you it will resonate with everyone. Where the you know a lot about north korea or you know nothing about north korea. I personally found it very enlightening because her tone is very dispassionate in a way but very thoughtful analysis. What he really loved about the book as she goes into an explanation of why and how she came to her assessment and evaluation. Her analysis of kim jong un, developments are not only interesting theyre very revelatory. Even for north korea experts. For example if you are talking and describing about what transpired she doesnt just talk about it she elaborates on whats happened but what that reveals about kim jong un and sewing. The book is very revelatory. Again thank you for writing this book and thank you all for joining us today. Now go up, get this book, and start reading it. Thank you sue. Tonight on book tv, a look at bestsellers and awardwinning books, beginning at 8 00 p. M. Eastern author eric larson discusses the splendid and the vile that looks at Prime Minister Winston Churchills leadership during the london blitz. Then James Patterson with his latest book on the politics of the kennedy family. Later the announcement of the 2020j. Anthony lukas prize. The winners announced during this Virtual Event include Kerri Greenidge and her book black radical. Alex copper which american summer. Watch book tv tonight and over the weekend on cspan2. Cspan has unfiltered coverage of congress, white house, Supreme Court and publicpolicy events of the president ial primaries to the impeachment process and now the federal response to the coronavirus. You can watch all of cspan Public Affair programming on television, online, or listen on the free radio app. Be part of the National Conversation through cspan daily Washington Journal Program or through our social media feeds. Brought to you today by her television provider. Welcome to the atlanta history i am host on Second Thought and your host for these talks. Tonight i am speaking with Bettye Kearse about her book, the other madison you can purchase it dec