Transcripts For CSPAN2 Norwich University Military Writers Symposium 20240713

Brought to you today by your television provider. Our moderator today is col. Andy heard, retired air force. Is a special assistant. Integrates University Departments to expand expeditionary opportunities to students. So that you a learn what its like to travel abroad and to lead abroad. He is done a tremendous amount of things here at the university of part of that has to do with him being station here for rotc but also for his folks and helping each one of you become better leaders. Also leading here today as a moderate of this panel. I can spend a lot of time reading about some incredible things that he is done but it will keep it short. As i mentioned, is a retired United States air force, he went to the academy and at the university of north carolina. His military career include three commands, for those of you who will be aviators, 6000 flying hours and combat missions and informal conflicts. Lets welcome the col. [applause]. Peter thank you for attending this writers symposium. This panel of warfare in the 21st century printed future battlegrounds, my name andy heard, you and i are privileged today at this university and the peace corps center of organized this panel to engage with experts of the 21st century conflict. The experts on the panel are global thought leaders. There are intimate with battles both in planning and in direct action. They understand the evolution of conflict. And how that conflict shapes policy. The contemplation of the future influences national powers, planning and decisionmaking through their careers of research, writing and debate. Andy today we are fortunate to join them for 90 minutes of their professional experience. Your experience is to develop you to lead. The newly did business in the community, government or military service, preparing you to lead in the 21st century is central to this universitys mission. This panel, is part of that mission. And these writers have spent years thinking about the evolution of warfare and how 21st century battlegrounds will impact society. From our conversation with him today, you will learn unexpected insights about your future challenges. Some of you may feel very comfortable conversing about cyber, or Artificial Intelligence, robotics, or data. Todays conversation is not just about products you can purchase. And you should already know that your data, your personal data can be a threat. Your dna coming search preferences, your social posts, they can be used for great purposes. But also they can be used to manipulate or threaten you. So todays conversation was about the future that you will live and work in and we are here to explore the future of warfare. So your phone, powerful communication tool. It is also a potential method of tracking and exploiting you. Artificial intelligence, is changing our lives in an impact future jobs and impacts transportation and politics. Robotics, have revolutionized industry already and more. Combined with ai, big data and instant communications robotics is a 21st century change agent perhaps like none other in history. Col. Andy hird ret. you can not be on the sidelines as leaders. Whether you are a schoolteacher or a platoon leader, you must continue to reflect what is expressed today, by this panel. Your job, as leaders is to be open to new ways of thinking. And be proactive confronting challenge. That is what today is about. The imperative to study the technological environment within you must lead. Some of you, lets contemplate the very direct threats from what you must defend us in battle. Today, most of us are connected in realtime to the internet. Immediate notification of events is beeping into your own pockets and the students he registered the cell phones in the norwich unification system received an exercise notification early this morning and did anyone notice that. I am sorry if it woke you up. This is an indirect to to act right. Hunkered down, run, report in, alert somebody. This is an amazing capability for art safety to trigger action throughout norwich. So how would you respond to a directive to evacuate your building latest night and reported in at the u due to some threat. As you leave your dorm at midnight, you see the strong and you should ask why is it there. Is the security intending to search the building for a suspicious package. Perhaps its a local reporter getting media content for the tv news. Or maybe it is law enforcement, monitoring the safe evacuation or using facial Recognition Software to search for a suspect. The program to kill the target. So what if there were thousands of these on the battlefield. Automatically seeking targets wearing your countrys uniform. How are you going to lead men and women in that environment. Finally, what if this drones programming, incompletely analyzes the situation. Or as a coding error. What will you do or what will it do, if youre standing in front of its target. These of the sort of questions you should ask each time you get a suspicious email, or a directed text message we feel that your car automatically bumps here away from the side of the highway. Or when a drone buses overhead. One of these technical advances is mainly on the purpose. How far is this tech already gone and the government funded laboratories. And what capabilities are already there. How are you going to be ready to deal with those capabilities and how will you lead people against threats or faster, fearless, or devoid of empathy. These are Game Changing technologies and yours cannot rely and setting the past. This drones a fraction of the capabilities that exist today. Tomorrow state will be exponentially more powerful. And for 21st century leadership, youve got to be immersed in the future. Effective become futurist. So fortunately, we are joined by three futurist today. To get you started. You should have already read their biographies. If not, you can scan them now claim finishing these words. Theres plenty to engage each of them after the panelists book signing. The doctor is the head of policy planning, and the office of the secretarygeneral and nato. She is a policy advocate for Human Security stabilization, and peace building. She has written extensively on the future of terrorism, and nonstate actors. Her contribution and hurt the honor of knighthood from her birth country, italy. Doctor peter singers strategist and senior fellow at new america. Leading expert in the 21st century warfare. Advising the Defense Department industry and entertainment including the software called duty. His written nonfiction and fiction on future conflicts and the impact of cyber and robotics. They are listed by Foreign Policy, as one of the worlds top 100 innovators. And sorry is a senior fellow. Paul scharre, for new american society. Previously he was advising the secretary of defense, unmanned and autonomous systems. He served in the army third rangers leading special operations with teams, and iraq, and afghanistan. And bill gates named his book one of the top five books to read in 2018. He is also this years colby award winner. So Panel Members, life is busy. The filler days with work, or studies in relationships and having time to contemplate the future is rare especially while trying to think about battlefields. What is happening right now which may have Significant Impact on the 21st century warfare. Doctor bernie will you please lead off on this topic. Benedetta thank you very much for the kind introduction. I think everybody for being here. Ill start by saying that part of my job today, very much has to do with looking at future trends. Violated team in one of our main jobs is to just look at the future. Look at five ten 20 years down the line. What politics and trends were today. And what will they or how they affect our way of dealing with the future. That takes up quite a bit tough our time and our thinking. I will start us off with a couple of points did i know that im here with paul and peter, who very much Health Experts on how Emergent Technology and new technologies will affect the way we fight wars. Im going to talk about is also very important. When we think of future of conflict. In first the nato, as an alliance, very much thinking about how to address conflicts of the future. First assumption is that they will be unlike the topic of the past printed one of them is the fact that we have conflicts multi domain training also in operational domain. Like cyber, like the information environment. And we are making a number of decisions, and then we are ready to fight conflict on the small operational domain in the research and i would add another point is throughout sometimes we forget about the future of warfare in the conflict. And then is that more and more, we are called into position where we are asking the question, where does conflict begin when dissident and what is really conflict in the sense that were going to face more and more activity below the threshold. In its mixing and matching means to achieve maximum effects printed support facing a war in which all sorts of tools in our toolbox, and to Foreign Policy to a number of things that we traditionally saw them separated from. From pursuing our military and Security Policies will be mixed and matched together and i think that we still have a number of political and merit military but we have to undertake, to really be able to deal with conflict. In the last point i would add make that is that conflict also looks completely increasingly more unclear. Where does it beginning were dissident. And i would call it witnessing a number of no more and no peace. None of which are giving any indication of it going away. To the contrary, if we look at the National Political violence today, civil and human interring prices are occurring, to iraq, to syria, to afghanistan, to somalia, and i could go on. One of the characteristics here are is that we are in conflicts which the beginning and the end looks increasingly more board. This puts us in a number of really important dilemmas. How do we do development in window use military were effectively and that is a trend that is only going to increase. Frozen conflicts will be involved and they are not going to go away. If anything theyll be come more entrenched and i think places upon us a number of serious dilemmas in terms of how do we act to mitigate the conflict. And a lot of other friends by making this point the battlefield is not one but connecticut none connecticut are increasingly looking more blurred. I think this is a big dilemma Going Forward. Theres a lot of complexities in that story. So one of the story, or what trends are happening right now that are already real time for these things. Peter singer how to think you in the organized peers for having myself back here, it is a real honor to join you. And everybody is shown such fantastic hospitality. What was brought up there, i think that one of the other areas in terms of the future of warfare, is a key driver is the emergence of a series of technologies, you might think of a different buzzword. Sometimes revolutionary technologies sometimes disruptive technology. Basically what we are talking about is technologies that change the game. There technologies that a generation ago, we wouldve thought of as Science Fiction. It out real and poised to change the world annoys a change the world mean everything from society and business to what went on in the battlefield. Think of these is that the museum here earlier today and you have distinguished graduates back hundred 50 years. Who they led the United States navy adapting to that new steam engine and the idea of an armored vessel. You show the first graduates of the School Wrestling with the flying machines. You have in a business Cyber Security force here. That is not thought it was that computer 19, we are not thinking about that. So its intended on moving forward. We can see there is that. You can look down into something that paul myself at work in and in hardware space diesel and in illustration of the corner, is robotics but most importantly increasingly thomas. If you think of in the software space, is Artificial Intelligence. Lots of different definitions of it but essentially Machine Intelligence that is either simulating human decisions are doing them better in some way shape or form. The quicker for taking in more data etc. The change in the internet. Its about hardware, software, you have wave where. That is basically Energy New Energy sources, but also energy becoming a weapon itself. The reagan is no longer just something in Science Fiction. You have human formants modification using technology to change what we can do it might be things that we carry on the body or a for bit or name it or maybe technology in the body that a student here who is doing the research project, on brain Machine Interface Technology basically using your brain to connect up to a computer. This is not a Science Fiction class therein. This was in your engineering department. These are technologies happening out there. I think the first that makes them revolutionary, they give us new questions of what is possible that was not possible before. They give us questions of what is proper. Debates of right and wrong though we were not have having before. It might be of how to best organize my military unit, right and wrong question. The second thing to thing off what you brought up is not that it creates in terms of battle, multi domain but these technologies, unlike the ironclad of the Aircraft Carrier that really have low barriers of entry so its about the fact that multiple other actors will have them for nonstate actor and Insurgent Group now has a little manager air force. Saudia arabia is the thirdlargest convince budget in the world yet it that way combined drone a missile attack. Than the other but that i would came up was is not just the idea of the great space of conflict and knowing and begins or ends. As the speed of conflict is change. So ai, the goal of it as it makes it quicker decisionmaking in humans. There may be so much going on that we may not be able to weigh in as much as we used to. It might be continual. As the example of ukraine and we played with us and the ghost book, the cyber war effectively caused by ukraine before the first armed troops crossed into their territory. So they lost the war reporting began because what happened in their Networks Much before the fighting began. So interesting, there are people in this room they deployed into battle years from now and if the outcome of that metal may be shape rhino bite what is happening right now inside of the Computer Network or a microchip manufacturer. Col. Andy hird ret. was not been fastest government policy. Theres a lot of that in your writing paul scharre. So can you tell us about real time things that we need to be thinking about right now that impact the 21st century workers. Paul scharre the real challenge that we face from bureaucratic policy standpoint is just much slower in the change out there in the world. One thing about future conflicts, we do need to know. Over the last 30 years, loosing u. S. Military forces employed to iraq, somalia, kosovo, afghanistan to iraq again. Syria to iraq again. And to libya, we dont actually need to know what we going to fight. When i went to know that its really heavily dependent on a lot of political uncertainties. We need to know is what will the work might look like. Either get it close enough that the forces that we train are not grossly unprepared. We have full the pain and the cost of soldiers and servicemembers in recent forces overseas theyre not ready. World war ii and korea but we certainly felt that in iraq and afghanistan where we thought it very differently than what we were focused on. In the 1990s. So when you think about the filter is a sort of toolkits or National Security decision makers, and the right tools or belts. That we are ready to address whatever conflicts we were in. As peter talked about, or seen an explosion of Digital Technologies that are fundamentally changing different ways in which we are fighting. But one interesting thing is are also saying that theyre so incredibly rapid. People of a certain age, but when we look at david innovations, it was actually changing faster than it used to be. We continue to see exponential growth. Policies really struggle to adapt. For 20 years, u. S. Defense department is been talking about the challenge, precision guiding weapons, sensors, bethel Work Networks that will allow this department to project our. Things that basically render our Aircraft Carriers, airbases, significant the less useful in future conflicts. Theres a lot of locking in our system both in congress, within the pentagon bureaucracy and also culturally. We might have to change how we fight. You mentioned the shift from sale to see. That was a challenge inside of the navy. Shifting to horses tanks in the army. There are lots of historical examples of changing how we fight. I often see this get in the way because we have a lot of cork but sometimes its actually how we carry out a task. Rather than the initiative they were trying to reform. That could hinder military effectiveness. Col. Andy hird ret. with the pace of change so rapidly, were going to be adapting in just the next few years to start living crossed all fields. In just a little more than a decade, each of you are going to be deputies, Field Grade Officers and perhaps even business partners. So to our panel, could you please address what these men and women will face ten years out when they are advising each of you has been an advisor in many sorts of ways. So mr. Paul scharre, could you tell this future advisors, what should they be preparing for. Paul scharre one of the real fundamental challenges is this blending of war and not war. Conflicts but also the non kinetic means of warfares and information attacks, cyber attacks, a high degree of trance dancing up i dont think were actually that we are prepared for. For example, u. S. Navy seal rate, those real time on twitter. So now were operating in a world where theres a great more transparency about what her military forces are doing. That could be reported to go viral. This basically means there are so many factors to success in the war, that are not about what we sorta think of as a war bring just a kinetic advocate of it. I dont know thats actually a change so much as it is maybe a conflict of war has become overly a narrative. Maybe we watch many movies. Actually, war is amounting any methods of fighting the family . Many of these are quite effective. Corolla tactics are Information Warfare, is quite effective. You need to be able to adapt to these realities knew some of these tools when they make sense but certainly be prepared for them. We will probably just widen or conduct of what war is. Instead of coming up with the Defense Community in the u. S. , unconventional warfare. Unrestricted warfare. Maybe we need to broaden our horizons of actually what is war. Not quite fit in a neat tidy box. Col. Andy hird ret. doctor, would you have this group focus on when the advisors faced future conflict. It. Benedetta berti i would like to continue with this full point about what is one what isnt. Because i think its a key point i think there are a few. Dr. Benedetta berti there we go. Theres art to challenges their printed one is we really need to understand this multi demand based on hybrid type and at the same time we need to be mindful. [inaudible]. Much better, thank you. So what i was saying, for those of you who did not hear me, i completely agree with the point made about about redefining an understanding what conflict may look like in the future printed is a big caveat and it would be probably when we describe something of conflict is our goal to solution is then we need to use the military as a tool. I think a lesson in the last custom elevate ti decades is military has had a purpose and an important place. And countries, Security Policies. But not everything can be addressed in the military force. The challenge and i think it is something that we need to reflect their very keenly very carefully about is fundamentally the multi challenge that requires economic development, reconstruction political reconstruction. The series of measures that cannot be delivered by the military. Maybe not at all. So the challenge is to know when forces useful. When it is a good to policy tool and when our military needs to be given the chance to do what he does best in other parts of government needs to step in and i think the challenges one of those. We need to be more flexible than to be careful not to militarize all of the problems we have. The related pointed out in terms of what we need to Pay Attention to moving forward, just to build on the point the conflict is looking different. There are a number of International Frameworks that served us very well many decades. To try this much is possible to limit the damage to especially the civilians. But especially the frameworks are becoming outdated or becoming less useful. The worst look different than in the past. And they follow it differently framework. I think it is something that we need to look at very carefully Going Forward how do we adopt these forms and makee sure that our Legal International monetary and low principles are both solid and grounded in reality. And fight the wars that we need to fight. Col. Andy hird ret. doctor singer. Peter singer the question you are really asking is what would be different than someone in that role of a staff officer in the military or young executive in the business. What will be different for them when they are advising someone of what to do. I think there are two things just hand out. What is to playoff football brought up pretty such as realtime information, but now if we are to or ten years out, the past that staff officer, an executive, is not going to be go out and get me the information on x. Rather it is going to be help me to figure out which of this information w is important and which of it is actually true. So move from a space we have to find the data, what a lot of people are in now to know that there is so much of it, what is the relevant part of it. What really r matters. And then we move into ten years out. And ill be talking about this later tonight, everything from disinformation to ai generation deep thanks. Are we talking about a battlefield operation to what my customers think to this crime or not. Or who do that. The second challenge is coming from opportunity is in a world with more Artificial Intelligence, the decisions that will be made will be bored and more guided by ai. It will be the one sifting through all of that data and essentially taking the position itself for providing recommendations and we already see this in everything from which way should you go, the ways map to get to the destination to advise who should get in who is eligible for a loan for their house mortgage or not. Giving the military version of the ways map, they were testing one of the military version of a route recommendation but unlike ways, it did not tell you based off of time savings and recommended routes off of the expected casualties you would take it might be, and can see all of these recommendations that are going on around you who gets promoted or not etc. So the question youll be advising on his when you actually listen to the recommendation or not. When you that tells you to take a left turn but god tells you you know. I know i need to go right. This person should not get a loan. Maybe this person seemed trustworthy. Or maybe its mixed bias and wrong information is fed into it. What paul brought up about the recent expanses of war is the military challenges artist we are turning ai off of data from iraq and afghanistan. But is that c actually going to create be suitable for major conflict in china. In the weight that we process decisions, maybe that is appropriate. So those two elements, one having people sift through information with what is real or not and when you listen to the ai and when you not. I think you will be part of those decisions. Lindas of this is your life main from the batman movie, you grow up in the dark. This what you know. You will be in some ways better suited to help advise and say the current generation barbie and shown this information of disinformation fake news. Col. Andy hird ret. its never as good or bad as first reported. Now it could be it could be terribly inaccurate so we need a confidence level against every fact that the commander the decisionmaker sees. Seated soaked to the panel, and 25 years, these people will be our community heaters and our elected politicians, Business Owners and military commanders. In that future contacts, when this audience will have the greatest enforce on the world, is the contact i now ask each of you an individual question and certainly we will have followup from the other two as desired. First to doctor bertie, champion in human rights and written extensively on conflict with civilians. Today human rights violations, homeless refugees, noncombatant casualties and resource deprivation. With rapidly changing technology, what will characterize human rights issues in the century in the future that are new considerations that are leaders avoid have to struggle with to manage impact on civilians. Dr. Benedetta berti thank you for that question. I spent quite a bit of time thinking about giving my 2 cents anyway with opening outcomes. Two main challenges to deal with. We need to deal with them today. To make sure the situation 25 years from now. Over the past few years, led also by the hiring of the syrians in the world where indiscriminate violence against civilians is a key tactic by the regime and the support is being russia or iran to gain a nmilitary upperhand. And what that has done and what the conflict in other conflicts thought along similar lines, i think is eroding some of the basic intervals, that we have fought so hard for to establish of the previous decades. Sorenou example is the coalition against the make chemical weapons, went pretty much established principles of in the conduct of warfare yet in syria, with chemical weapons use, or punitive. That is weakening that particular norm. I would say with a great deal of urgency, one of the challenges we have is to establish and reestablish and reaffirm the people of international lows. This will be harder to do as more normalcy the rise of geopolitical competition. We see a war in which a rising china to from vent the different political arena. United states and europe lawsuit Shape International order in the International Legal system, which may not coincide with ours. Its that is a great challenge. And domestic is the next one. And we allll have to grasp witht and that is, what is an democratic person, with respectful digital, ecosystem look like. That involves an enough regulation of ai. To what do we do with the thomas weapons. In which fake news and disinformation is there. A number of challenges that all of us will essentially threaten in some of the principles of our democracy. These are key challenges that we need to get right today. If you want to make sure in 25 years, our job is not to try to rebuild what is being destroyed. The time is now. Col. Andy hird ret. you follow up on that. Peter singer i think its an challenges that the institutions that protect human rights, face from new types of threats. So to playy off of that example of a chemical weapons use, in syria. The resistance to trying to create accountability took place everywhere from within the united nations, sort of the classic way but it also entailed Massive Campaign pushover social media trying to reach into the different body of politics on the nations deciding whether to intervene basically saying no to chemical weapons attack do not have her happen i was fake news. It was planted by the insurgents themselves. And he saw near perfect alignment. Literally the same players that were sitting disinformation. In that same was pushing that. Its a means of Information Warfare made it harder to build respect for human rights. If you can even agree on whether the atrocity happen or not, how we didnt get to what we do about it. So one of these interesting things is how do we build up resilience to those kind of attacks. Much of politics but weve seen human groups attacking another great example u of this is a hun rights group in sudan had its email hacked and then false information planted in it. And it was spread of viral through mix of puppet accounts. Sound familiar. It was hopeful part of the way of damaging that Human Rights Campaign to prevent it from operating effectively. So until we get a handle on this, its going to be poisoning different domestic politics to global respect for human rights. Col. Andy hird ret. mr. Paul scharre do you have any more to add to that. Paul scharre we got to the end of the 20th century and democratic values, one that contest in the 20th century. Free nations defeated totalitarianism and nazism and communism. But that wasnt the end of the story or history. Immersing new forms involved now in f this century than a quite dangerous. If you dont stand up for these values, they rode over time. So certainly come in syria, and gross abuse of human rights by the regime and inability to effectively do anything about that is degrading the norms and military conflicts. China is engaging in horrific human life abuses. Detaining of our million of its citizens in the worlds basically violence. It is deeply troubling. We know this happening. Theres plenty of information about it. China will, and europe is largely silent on this. Because of getting money from china. Theres a view in the late 1990s and early 2000s that there was this history that was trending towards progress. I think is optimistic but not supported by reality. He was engaged closely with china on the assumption that over time the engagement will be try to get to more liberal, politically economic and were now facing a very seriousn competitor. They were very different view of the world and the United States. Banks real challenge when you think about how to adapt to this because many countries with a world where human rights do not matter. I dont think this world we want to live in unit. Col. Andy hird ret. thank you printed doctor singer, characters who consistently express honor that they seem to struggle with the technological change that reduces or perhaps eliminate sets from the battlefield. The sergeant this morning professed that empathy is what makes American Military so much better than everybody else. Will honor and empathy remain essential in conflict or is it going to be a liability for or perhaps both. Dr. Peter singer often you hear people explain the military anyone blame the laws of war for some kind of outcome that they didnt like. They will say, it was Like Fighting with one hand become a back door you had general tommy franks, after he left bin laden go, blamed his lawyers for not allowing him in the early part of the 2001 right after 911, it convoy have been lauded as an, and franks chose not to airs target and he blamed his lawyer. On the son of an army officer. Anybody knows who knows us, jacks dont tell the fourstar general what to do. His flaming the code of honor. In the honor is about following the code. Its about following a set of rules of right and wrong either normative rules or actual written down ones whether they are written down in that little book that you all get or the written down in the conventions. So essentially there are two things to note here. The first is that we often blame that for outcomes that havee nothing to do with it. And in the second is, history shows professional forces and professional is defined by those who operate by a code as opposed to barbarian horses which are warriors. How we amplify the word warrior, but its actually the professional forces. History shows professionals consistently beat warriors. Professionals consistently beat barbarians. Thus the following code are the ones the wind and if youre literally taking a listing of wars one and loss and the reason is because of what you see here. Those the following code can organize and train and equip in a way that those who dont follow a code cant read and those who followed cody can win hearts and minds and trust of the locals civilian forces in a way that the barbarians cannot. So we also blame casted. People will see this moving forward with whatever the technology that we are talking about, whether the systems are cyber, if you are using it in a manner that is barbarian lie, it acwill come back on you. Thats actually one of the interesting things that weve been wrestling with. With afghanistan to iraq. You can have all of the great Unmanned Systems if you want but it is creating mores casualties, itss not going to deliver you the victory you want because it is a producing more people volunteering to join that Adversary Group to and these people are not delivering targeting intelligence that you want to go after the bad guys. So to go back to it again, when we blame the code for our losses we are usually blame casting our own bad decisions and second, history shows professionals when. So be a professional. Col. Andy hird ret. thank you. Mr. Paul scharre, in your book, how do we integrate that into ai and robotics but i dont recall getting the answer have to do that. At so perhaps you could give us your answer to this. Are they going to survive. Paul scharre i think the world actually where we dont have an but they, is probably scary world to be in. Peter had mentioned this question about trusting the map guy telling you where to go. I think the question that the military will face is widely used automation and how can we use Artificial Intelligence and automation to take over various tests and when will it be more effective. There have been studies by palaces say roughly half of all test really done in the u. S. Economy can be automated today in the with the existing technology. Subtle jobs, 5 percent jobs probably but a lot of things and people do, can be automated to some degree. That will be true and military as well. If you go forward 30 years we have people manually landing planes and taking them off. Her manually driving vehicles are manually actually aiming rifles, probably could automate those with higher precision and reliability. The right answer depends upon context or judgment. To train and machine to know better than a human whether somebody is holding a rifle in their hands are breaking their hands. Probably. Over time we could do that with enough data and Machine Learning we could figured out but that does not tell you whether that person is a combatant, but doesnt or they could be holding rick. They could be a friendly force, maybe just a civilian. And also what isg the smart thig to do. It could be there combatant but a few let them up then the a could be giving away your position. Maybe thats on the right tactical thing to do ins thatha instance. There is of course this also ethical component that you mentioned. I think is particularly thinking about the use of force and war. Its a tricky thing because there is a cost to having people involved in these decision. People have to bear that moral burden pretty with increased a lot of awareness in the force of things not only ptsd but moral injury. Those make it very difficultfi choices. Choosing between two different wrongs pretty they have to live with that i think it is a really interesting moral dilemma to say look, we would rather have somebody do that. It is not fair as a society that we make a decision that the nation to go to war and we send off young men and women to do that. They have to make those choices. Very small percentage of the population does not. But what would a war look like if no one make those choices or had values of human lives and i am not sure thats where we want to live. Col. Andy hird ret. doctor percy. Dr. Benedetta berti i agree with everything that has been said so far. I think there are ways to do this. We must not forget that the main point of the main principle of these rules is reciprocity. They were designed so that armies would have a code of conduct that would be reciprocal. So the first rules were able to to, i think theyre not in international communities. Theres an interest in keeping that convention that means if your men and women in uniform are captured, they will be treated with dignity and not tortured and not subjected to degrading treatment. The compromise is you will be asked to do the same with the enemy forces printed so theres that reciprocity involved. It makes for an tries to do something very difficult. You can mitigate the impact of war while still allowing safe to use force in situations theres an effectiveness, arguments as we mentioned already meeting your involved in insurgents, you have corroboration. Part of it is to classify that area predisposed easier to not fight. To see that you have someone that they can trust and rely upon. It is also more effective and finally i would say a very political cost are armies and armed forces are important part of our society. In the way that they fight, tells us a lot about us and who we are and about who we stand for and the place that we want to live in. Its not just about when we do a broad reflection of whether or what her values are. So that since i think it is absolutely vital for democracy to continue to have honorue and empathy. This is about us and how do we want to live. With our selves and our society. What values define us. And i certainly hope the ones that define us tomorrow will be the ones so far. Col. Andy hird ret. mr. Paul scharre. Your future of ai and employment was fascinating. Bill gates is a very positive review. It provides a measure of comfort that he doesnt lose sleep, but what i imagine, 2040 battlefield, worries me because i think of the tireless fearless robot ai, combined with great power capabilities is enhanced in some kind of global armageddon. What is the worst case in your future. Paul scharre i think the good news like terminators turning on us, i dont think thats a risk. Theres another terminator book coming out. Movie. I think the things that break me the most are a slow movement over times towards more automation, slowly feels like human control from warfare. Then crosses some threshold that maybe not realized were doing at the time but where humans have much less control over whats happening. This is a been expressed in many ways. China talks about a battlefield simulator with a piece of automation and machine driven warfare on the battlefield. So new, we want to use automation to get inside of our adversaries to react to the environment has to than them. Your military forces are inside that could be okay when you have people making these decisions. We wantt to tell them to be flexible and adaptable in the ground and we dont want them to call up for higher aspirations for everything. We have ideas but the machine will understand that. So theres a risk and that, that the accident may have. I think most significant in cyberspace. Col. Andy hird ret. and theres a potential foror hm rapidly in scale. La backed the resiliency and the current structure of the internet. And this is some sort of intelligence malware that could be in question. Col. Andy hird ret. thank you. Doctor bertie, do you think of robocop or Something Like that . Dr. Benedetta berti in a roundabout way i will answer your questions. I think we have mentioned so many important factors that can shape our future. And rightly so. I think if we are talking about the future and potential worstcase scenarios that will affect armies, i think before the time isio up, i think i have to mention Climate Change. We are ignoring a huge elephant in the room. I completely agree with their thing it doesnt say that but if the robots dont get us, theres also a chance of Something Else real. Climate change. I think certainly is a threat multiplier printed and make some of our existing challenges more complex pretty we see war in the future where ongoing like water or emergencies, more millions of refuge. And what is essentially our climate crisis. S. We will have our military think it very carefully but how do they respond to evermore severe and extreme weather events which is something we are already taking work to respond to. Then you project your self into the future, will become much more Important Mission because the need will be ever so greater. And so just to say, a number of potential worstcase scenarios and technology. We should prepare ourselves for that. We call a nato green defense. I think that is important as well that doesnt mean Everything Else being said is not importants that we should also keep an eye on those yissues theyre going to affect our future veryni significantly. To make of course thank you. Doctor singer you had a worstcase scenario in your story, we had our butts handed to us. Spee10 your asking someone who wrote a book about world war three. [laughter] the dark things says is we are living it. Whether its a Climate Change issue and all the craziness of yesterday news report came out you mightve missed it but a new reportt came out from the un over 100 scientists from 36 Different Countries that essentially concluded its actually turning out to be muchy worse going quicker than we thought. And we essentially only have two the year 2030 to take action that could appreciatively turn things around. That links to the nightmare scenario for me, want to say we are living it, is the essence of russian Information Warfare is not to make you love putin or the like. Thats what americans think of propagandist to make you love us, apple pie, bluejeans, rock n roll. The essence of russian Information Warfare going back to its origins in the 1920s is to make you distrust everything. Im trust is something thats interesting. It takes a long, long time to itbuild. Once lost it is almost impossible to bringos back. We have seen a systematic attack on the institutions that would trust and are crucial to a thriving american democracy. That is true whether we are talking about healthy Civil Military relations, to trust and an independent court in judiciary. Trust in freedom of speech. We are seeing each of these core institutions that democracies need are under threat right now, and as the pledge many of you will take from foes both abroad and domestic. I worry we arere shrugging off you can see it in the polling data and the like of trust in institutions. That lost is almost impossible to bring back. The challenge of these periods, whether you are talking about warfare, what happens if you have a highly politicized military . A highly partisan military . We note that is military thats less likely to win wars. What happens how you affect himate change . Well, its very hard to do it if you are simultaneously describing it as a Conspiracy Theory put out by china. So, i worry about these things. That is my nightmare scenario is are institutions that are so part of the democracy are under threat right now in a way that did not happen when i was your age. Host thank you sir. We are just passed about an hour. Which is often the time to think about stretching. So, i want everyone to stand up for minutes, and stretch. When you sit back down, those of you who will have questions go ahead and remain standing while the authors have this last question. Again you can sleep standing while im addressing this. Talk. Cant okay so your purpose as norwich graduates is to be leaders ready for the future. So how should you prepare . Thats one of the Key Takeaways today. After our Panel Addresses this final topic, we are going to open up to your questions. So you can begin to stand, make yourself identified as someone who would like to ask a question. To our three Panel Members, i suspect each of you, when you envisioned your future rolls in life from their side of the stage, you didnt predict the developmental path that you would take with much precision. In the unexpected often makes us more prepared to lead. So what, in the three of your experiences, unexpectedly prepared you for the influential roles to which today you have and her audience can consider that when they are thinking about planning out leadership development. Doctor singer, would you tell us a story . Guest this is going to sell lycos kissing up to the concept of the conference itself, but the advice i would give that links back to experience, is all of the issues that we are talking about. Whether its robotics, Climate Change, human rights and conflicts,t cybersecurity, they are inherently multidisciplinary. That is whether you are an engineer working on a a robot, we are now learning, paul can attest to this, we are pulling from the fields of biology and design. Or meeting with the cybersecurity class earlier and we were talking about just the keys to Network Defense involves not just the coding of zeros and ones but understanding of economics and what its incentivizes best behavior. Its that multidisciplinary nature thats going to be so key into whatever role youre going to take on. For me, and doing work i do on writing and advising, dod and other entities on the future of war, i keep coming back to history. I grew up with a love of history of military history. When i am speaking to military audiences on, paul is bringing up how to adapt to change . I am referencing the new you a. S. But i am also talking about how the navy adjusted to Aircraft Carriers and their need to do the fleets problem exercise partner we have marine officers sitting in the front row here some of you heard from before. They are looking at the examples of the marine and the t century but theyre looking at how that marines explored amphibious warfare is a concept back ince the 1930s. For me personally, that love of history has been something that i am constantly applying in future ologies. Y statement thank you sir. Paul, your thoughts on the Unexpected Development mental path . Guest one of my drill sergeant in basic training on his last words as they marched off to school was him screaming at us and never quit. You can actually get a lot done in life by perseverance. Theres a lot to be said for living a fulfilling life through being entrepreneurial, being bold, just simply doing things that you want to a do. In the military setting is a little bit different because there are more constrained opportunities to do that. Its a great advice, they say volunteer for everything. Seek opportunities and everything you can, volunteer for everything you can, take advantage of whats outut there. And then out in the civilian world you just do what you find excuses to do it rather than not do it that requires focus. It requires very much deciding these things are not important. We were chatting over lunch about how hard it is to decide where you spend your time. The things you agree to do and the things that you turned down. I think it is important to let yourself such are own priorities. Because the world would tell you think the things they want to do, society, your parents, your boss, the things they want you to do. But ultimately its your life and you have to decide what matters to me and carving up the time for that you could do really great stuff. Okay you have bounced from many Different Countries in your career. I dont expect that was completely expected, what in your career has been drawing you towards where you are today . Guest definitely is not expected i grew up in the small town in the north of italy and i didnt really travel much during upgrade the fact that i now spend my weekend an average of two or three Different Countries is certainly something i never expected would s happen. I would bring up two points. One very much tallies of what paul is saying to be able to find what gives you a sense of purpose and that would drive a lot of career choices. They can help you shift from one field to another and take up a lot of very different experiences. I have worked in academia, the policy work in the fields with the un, now at nato. It may sound a bit disjointed, but to me its so coherent because it all follows the same purpose. I am interested in how do we mitigate the conflict of civilians in the context of civil war. Her meat thats what doesnt, thats my purpose. Thats what drives my choices. Its quite a good thing to fall back to what im undecided whether to take one path or another is to say is is furthering what i think is my w contribution . My 2 cents. I think it is very much goes in line with the idea focusing. The additional point goes in line with what you talked about International Experience to be open to have your ideas challenged. I dont think its something weve welcomed enough in our societies. We stayed in our cocoon listen to people who agree with this. That is easy, but i dont know if it brings us to make the best type of decisions and i dont know if it really allowst us to relate to each others human beings have the best possible level. To me, my experience one of the best ways to challenge my preconceived notions, my ideas and biases has been to travel. The more different culture and the more different place before being back in europe i spent ten years in the middle east and i can say that was a crash course into challenging so many notions that i had been brought up with. Some of which i got reaffirmed in some of which i revised. I think its a very useful exercise. I heard as a part of this Program Students also have International Experience and i think that is incredibly invaluable, especially in this globalized work that we live in today. Host thank you maam. We have time for questions fortunately. I like to start over here with the students and colonel you will be next. So i hope youre doing well today this is a question for anybody. Ay in the world today we see a lot of warfare, also narco Drug Trafficking is a lot of what we see impacting civilians in causing civil wars. And if you can answer, what do you think and where that sort of area fighting is going to today and how can it be prevented in developing third world countries . See what i would suggest doctor singer start with that. Guest i was going to suggest someone else. [laughter] i was not supposed to answer. [laughter] doctor birdie. Great question i think its a very, very important to tackle the issue of organized crime because its something we have estimated for very long but these are much more sophisticated easier to project power to have an impact on dynamic as well. Its a key challenge for us to tackle. Of how do you do that . I think we need, most strategies half this component is a multi prong approach on the one hand we tried to undermined their model, find ways to make it harder for them to profit. During the economic financial aspect is very important. But then again theres the root causes discussion whichs. I think we should never forget and that is what drives people to join these organizations . What drives this dynamic and often hesitant poor governments. This is one of my mantras i always go back to but the point is we also have to address the political context very v carefully. I would just close because i know it theres other questions by saying its especially important in the regions of the world with strategic interest the united s states like the middle east. For example in north africa we see more and more synergy criminalization. It transcends the Public Security and becomes an international. Thats a very good question. So to think future battlegrounds will be impacted by narco trafficking . Guest yes, they are. We must not forget that for example in the case of isis which for a while was a terrorist groups with the biggest t territorial and population control. And also the Wealthiest Terrorist Organization before our military operation took an end to that. The point is a lot of substantial portion of the revenues they made were out of smuggling of antiquities, oil, involved with criminal organizations. The link between terrorism and crime makes what happens in the criminal world very relevant to civilization operations all around thehe world. So thank you. Guest as my students know and very old i started programming in 1965. I have followed and developments in Computer Science all of my career. Im here to a give you a warning, there are two factors i did not hear mentioned. Number one, Neural Networks develops algorithms that are incomprehensible to the human beings whogs are depending on those algorithms and there is evidence of that. For example, one of the earliest Neural Networks back in around 1988 was tasked with developing an integrated circuit for particular behavior and it worked. And none of the electrical engineers could figure out how it worked. Until they tracked it in detail for a couple of weeks. Thats number one. Number two, back in the 1930s,. [inaudible] articulated a principal theorem of incompleteness that includes a prediction that all self residential systems are inherently chaotic where chaos come in mathematical terms, means havinged disrupted responses to changes in i input. Those whod factors into factors should worry the hell out of us i will leave it to you to comment. Sue and anyone worried . Guest i think on the first one lets take it even further and actually connects to what paul brought and relevant to the chinese approach and hope for in p terms of a battlefield breakthrough, and discussions of Artificial Intelligence in the u. S. Theres a moment where people always come back to games. Theres two moments in our discussion around Artificial Intelligence. Thats when the computer for speech the top chessmaster and the next stages when the computer beat the top human at trivia on jeopardy. Thats what we talk about. For china and in particular your counterparts in the pla, it was when the machine beat someone at the game of go. For not familiar with it go is a of strategy thats thousands of years old and relevant to the comments you brought up was not merely that the breakthrough happened in this game though a lot of people thought it wouldnt happen for about ten years. But it was the way the machine one. They came up with moves that humans who had been playing this game is for over 2000 years never thought of on their own. Thats the sort of potential of it being a battlefield breakthrough, kind of the equivalent of a blitzkrieg, by machine that no one thought about before. Thats was excited the pla. Measure layout is not just this possibility. We have medicines that are being discovered so to speak by ai, by bringing together information that human doctors and researchers would not of thought w of. A jew layout theres the negative of it. Thats referencing of the advice the machine is giving you part of why that advice is so good you never wouldve come up with it on your own and you dont understand it. Thats also the challenge of when do you go contrary to the machine because you can understand why did it recommend this . Why did it recommend this person does not get a loan was it because it sifted through all of the information in a such perfect information that i never couldve done on my own . Or is it because the data plugged into it, was inherently biased against africanamericans. I did not make up an example there, that is a true story. For who gets selected for promotion or admission to a college . We are going to take more datamo than ever before send us your sat scores in the light entrance like. Its gonna sift together on the way a g human could never could because of a neuro net and it founds i think young white men who played lacrosse for the best for college. They actually werent, this thing youre bringing in is not just about a thing of understanding at thats whats good about it. Thats the problem of it. The other thing the paul brought up in acquisitions howth does the military by something that is one that holds the prospect of advising a better, but on the other hand no one can tell you how it works. Thats good. The afternoon history shows us mankind is often shows some weapons to violence are dangerous or unfair warfare. Do you think ai that thanks and acts on its own could be out late in the future . Early to step in our our mindset of progress even consider that . You and that lends squarely with you. Guest the track record of trying to regulate dates back to ancient india its a real mishap. There been successes are things that were largely successful like efforts to move away from chemical biologically weapons. There been other miserable failures around o history. So its a real challenge, if you violate these rules. [inaudible] something is effective and you win the war than okay. The real issue is reciprocity. When you see effective restraints that largely has to do with the military under military degree either explicitly or tactically. Do not use certain weapons. There is not an advantage that it might make war horrible unrestrained in some way. But in order to evenly receive that kind of restraint is clarity in which on the thing youre not agreeing to do . In world war ii that restricted. [inaudible] and not to the cities. So where do you locate factories . So overtime that lined blurred. [inaudible] i think its a real problem for p ai. Where do you draw that line . Were you say this is complication of ai theres a lot of discussions underway among states scholars looking to try to figure that out. Host thank you good question we will all be sharing your mike yourer shortly. Guest i would weigh in particular to ai. First theres the act specs technology that neither civilian or military. Sometimes youll see people say theres a movement of increase in misuse within the military. But simultaneously that, our civilian world is using that technology. I used example but lets move forward ten years. As our proposition that a pilot will tune earlier date mentioned going to the air force, they are going to wake up in the suburbs of las vegas and be driven to the air force base by their thomas car, thats of tesla were chevrolets and the like are. Once we reach the airport base they say no that the hand control everything the drone does i dont think that happened. First is the nature of technology. What i do think is possible as will see certain restrictions on not the technology, but potentially where you use it and how you useou it. For instance you are concerned, there are very different civilian casualty concerns with autonomous Weapon System in the land domain and urban environment in the city versus undersea warfare. In an urban environment you get it wrong as to whether its aan tank or a bus. Scores can diapered the undersea environment is mostly automated is not jonesy with this really good ear, that sounds like in any entrant enemy submarine its a computer recognizing algorithm of torpedoes fired or actually fired and forget their mostly automated. If you get it wrong theres no such thing now as an underwater cruiseship. You might say allowing autonomy and undersea warfare. That may be not within land warfare as an example. Cmac thanks for coming i am representing the Lacrosse Team funny enough. [laughter] im looking for the true information is at a google search, vr, Something Like that . How does ai decipher what is true with so much data coming inandout specially since thats only increasing . Thank you. I brought it up pointed out. The first is we have ais being used to try to distinguish that. For example as we see the creation is what is known as deep fakes which is ai generated false imagery. As it becomes more and more sophisticated, we will rely on Artificial Intelligence to siftor underneath it for what the human eye might not not see. Whats fascinating is going back to the blurring line between war and conflict is the groups that are researching that type of technology to identify its fate, are both the facebooks of the World Facebook because they needed for their platform, and darpa because they might target u. S. Military and democracy. All the data also shows it is insufficient and what we really have missing in the United States is Digital Literacy. If you are all grown up in finland or estonia, from elementary, Junior High High School besides being taught your regular studies and besides all of your taught besides being taught hygiene, wash her hands and the like which you were all taught it taught how to defend a yourself online. You would have been taught Digital Literacy to distinguish between whats real and fake. How to manipulate people what are the emotional oils are going after. Wide there as others more resilient against these threats in the United States just like an open territory to it. Its a great example of how you align National Security with education. I lifted literacy inside the United States it would not just help you to be better citizens, would help public health. You are all dealing with the return of diseases that we didnt have to because of anti vat Conspiracy Theory. It would help you all be better consumers. As a multiple good thing strain thats missing within ourr system. Guest i group everything maybe i should offer this one. Okay lets try another layer of complexities is Better Technology to help us, sure actually accounts for relatively small amount of the most effective information as we look more at a russia which is one of the main players at the moment is doing, a lot of it is not fake is much more of a manipulation of the truth. Thats much harder to detect. Certainly much harder to see let alone for human alone for Artificial Intelligence. As the Technology Gets better in the get more sophisticated, and even if we had a perfect. [inaudible] it will not help us with a lot of this campaign. Thats just to throw another layer of complexity. Host thank you. So clearly we need a lot more time for your questions. Therell be a chance for that the book signing after this. Im sorry to send you back your seats for the end of this. But thank you audience and panel, you are all very fantastic. [applause] [applause] we have covered a lot of important aspects of your future ship leadership problems. Students come appreciate your willingness to embark on the door which experience. Want to take this opportunity to thank those of you who are going to defend freedom and ensure our security. Please join these Panel Members as well as carla dessie, and brown, and staff sgt in the milano ballroom right after words for a book signing event where books are available for purchase. And finally tonight, youre all invited to continue parts of this discussion in the todd lectureat at 1900 and all were doctor singer will discuss weaponization of social media. I hope to see you all there and at the book signing. Thank you panel. [applause] [applause] wont members of congress or in their districts due to the pandemic, we have a special edition of book tv airing during the week. Tonight portions of our programs on books about pandemics from authors john barrick, david quam and, shock, and jeremy brown them books on the economy with authors peter wallison, henry paulson, aron glantz, Marian Cooper and others. Later authors ronald kessler, and steven moore discuss their books about president trump. Enjoy book tv now and over the weekend on cspan2. The president from Public Affairs available now in paperback and ebook. Presents biographies of every president. Organized by the ranking, by noted historians, from best to worst. And features perspectives into the lives of our nations chief executives and leadership style. Visit our website cspan. Org the president s. To learn more about each president and historian feature. In order your copy today. Wherever books and ebooks are sold. Submit monday night on the communicators Mark Randolph cove author of netflix in the book that will never work experiences with the online streaming service. On april 14, 1998, we hit a few keys and we were live. It did not take longer because that first ding. We cheered and started opening bottles of champagne. In two or three minutes later didnt, ding, ding three more orders we are so excited that he got two more orders and in all the excitement we kind of lost track of things until someone noticed it had been a while since the bells rung. As it unplugged is their problem . It turned out in the first 15 minutes of being online, we crashed all of our servers. Mark randolph monday night on 8 00 oclock eastern on the communicators on cspan2. So cspan has roundtheclock coverage of the federal response to the coronavirus pandemic. And its all available on demand at cspan. Org coronavirus. Watch white house briefings, updates from governors and state officials. Track the spread throughout the u. S. And the world with interactive maps, watch on demand any time at cspan. Org coronavirus. Good evening everybody, once again welcomed the books and books thanks for joining us this evening and supporting your local independent bookstore. Books and books downtown coral cables, maybe not so beautiful tonight if you dont like the weather in florida is this a wait five minutes for repairs to your being here for newness got a cell phone or anything else is gonna ring out or sing out wed appreciate if you put in the