First National Book festival event. As we all collectively face the challenge of the pandemic the safety of our staff members, visitors scholars is our First Priority at the library of congress. We are following the cdc recommendations and guidelines and all of our buildings are closed to the public until further notice. However, it is the librarys mission to engage and connect with our users. So we been rolling out various programs virtually for parents and teachers, scholars, students, and everyone who could benefit, we hope, from our resources online. So please visit our website llc. Gov for more useful information not only about whats going on currently, but also things you could use during this time. Now to our events, we will be joined by bestselling author john m berry who will be discussing his book, the great influenza, the epic story of the deadliest plague in history. He will be joined in conversation by mr. David rubenstein, cochair of the National Book festival and author of the american story. Conversations with master historian, please join me in welcoming mr. John m berry and David Rubenstein in the First VirtualNational Book festival presents. We are here with john barry, i want to thank you for doing this interview. I realized today you are one of the more popular people in the United States because the book he wrote, the great influenza which i highly recommend we will talk about this book. But what prompted you to write a book about the great influenza in 2004 when that was so long ago people were to then focused on these kinds of things . Thats too long question for the show but when i was a kid i wanted to do two things i wanted to be a scientist, doing medical research and i wanted to be a writer. I actually remember the moment in time i was 13 and 14 years old when i decided i would abandon science and become a writer. So i always had that interest and it seemed like a good idea at the time. I read the book recently as i told you the other day i had read before, im embarrassed to say, i read it recently occurred it really put it down because its an incredible story about what happened in 1918 and what i would like to do is take us to that story and then see how that compares to whats going on now. Lets go through the story initially, its called the great influenza where that title come about . Its probably the first title i picked for any book or article ive ever written in my entire life. Im not very clever. They were searching for a title i asked suggested that when nobody had anyone better. It was not called that at the time. It is referred to as the spanish flu. Talk about that, called the spanish flu by many people but from the point of view of spain thats not fair because it didnt start in spain so why was it called the spanish flu 2. Spain was not at war so it didnt censor its press and the war and in countries all did in the u. S. Was more selfcensorship and when the first wave came which was actually quite mild in the spring of 1918 spain was pretty hard hit and the king himself got sick which of course generated attention all over the developed world. They begin writing about it and called it spanish flu. Lets talk about the time it took to write this book. This book has your obvious interest in science because its very thorough in the scientific parts and the epidemiology part of it. How long did it take you to research this and write this book . Seven years. Seven years. Did your publisher say from time to time its taking too long . He didnt say that or she didnt say that . The publisher is from new orleans and she liked one of my prior books so she gave me some she was patient. I did not think the book would take anything like that. When i started it at most i thought it would take two and half years but i got pretty deeply into it. It just kept going and going. As we talk today, you are in new orleans now . Im in the French Quarter in new orleans. Very deserted. Talking about the great influenza as you call it known as the spanish flu to some. How many people died to the best of our knowledge during that influenza. The best estimates in the first person to come up with it was carolyn burdette. Confirmed by epidemiologist much more recently. 50 million to 100 Million People worldwide, thats 225 450 Million People. Today. It was a very lethal outbreak. The United States about 675,000 people died. When did it first surface of the United States. In your book it seemed to indicate it came from kansas but is that clear that it originated in kansas . I had that hypothesis when i researched it the book i thought i had may have even located its site of origin even wrote a scientific journal article on that hand it still may have started in kansas but a lot of research has been done since my book came out and i backed off that hypothesis myself i think its more likely china but although the ab other hypotheses are japan, france, new york city, we dont know where it started and we probably will never know. Wherever it started it serviced initially in military barracks, is that correct . Actually, first surfaced in a small county Rural High School county the first reported outbreak lethal influenza in the world. January 1918 you could track people who went from that town to what is now fort riley and the people when their families had pneumonia they arrived at fort riley in 48 hours just the incubation period influenza 48 hours later fort riley largely erupted in a pretty serious outbreak. Compared to the fall outbreak it was still fairly mild. In this outbreak it began to go from soldier to soldier and transfers were getting ready to go. It wouldve happened anyway. Pandemics have occurred, influenza pandemics have occurred in the 1600s made it from europe to north america. So i dont think the war was a major factor but but it wouldve spread anyway. It did go from one army camp to another, in more than half the army camps in the spring they carried it to york and spread from there. When the soldiers were going to new york they were going to large ships very close confined ships that probably helped spread it among sailors and soldiers and then to europe as well. That became a really serious problem pushed to ships on the second lethal wave of the pandemic those ships became horrific places almost floating coffins. To the military Senior Leadership begin to recognize that there were problems that their soldiers were getting influenza and some of them actually dying from it one of the Senior Military Leadership to about this. Premuch nothing. They were in conflict Army Surgeon General william garnets who was really a terrific physician scientists help person he was almost at war with the Army Leadership over this issue. But they largely ignored aso did wilson himself, president. Why did it go to the civilian population . What cities did it mostly going to large cities in United States . The ease course more than the west . There was a spring outbreak in new york city which was actually at the time it wasnt noticed its been noted since then carefully, Epidemiological Research and broke out in february and possibly late january even before the occurrences on the military camps, thats why i say it wouldve spread anyway. But the influenza that broke out, when people got this, in some cases they survived obviously but in many cases they came down with such terrible pains and diseases they died in ways that are horrific as you describe in your book. Bleeding out of their eyes and ears, what was that . We have to distinguish between the first way which was generally mild. The second lethal way which began in september and most places in the world those symptoms were horrific. You could bleed not only from your nose and mouth and military camps some 15 percent of soldiers bleeding from their nose but you could also bleed from your eyes and ears. You had the disease misdiagnosed initially as caller abbecause of the symptoms not normally associated with influenza. People could turn so dark blue from lack of oxygen that i quoted one physician writing a colleague saying he had difficulty distinguishing African American ships the epidemiologist and other medical researchers say this is something we should solve the vaccine. What kind of research was done . Exactly what you said. They knew a lot about bacteriology. They didnt know whether a virus was aban entirely different organism. It was a hypothesis and it was caused by a particular bacteria which still has a name. They were able to develop vaccines although they did not get widely distributed against pneumococcus. If youve got pneumonia with vaccine shot today its a Straight Line descendent of what was developed back then and basically tried everything they could think of. Obviously since was primarily a viral disease and even bacterial vaccines antibacterial vaccines did not get widely distributed none of those therapeutics work. They tried things we are doing right now such as convalescent serum that probably had some effect, none of the scientific studies were well done. They knew that at the time they werent wellcontrolled because they were in the same chaotic situation we are today and they were more concerned with saving summaries like then the controlled study. In the first wave as you described wasnt quite as bad as the second wave but what was the theory about why the second wave was so much more lethal . Was it just the virus had become stronger and mutated in that way . That would be my theory. I dont see another explanation. The two ways were so different theres a small minority probably just we think they were different viruses but i think the evidence is absolutely overwhelming that they were the same virus and thats the consensus view. It turns out the virus from 1918 it seems to affect younger people more than older people. Why would that be the case . In most cases peoples immune systems were largely responsible for the overreaction when youre younger you have a stronger immune system. The virus if it was getting into the long the immune system was throwing every weapon added. The long was being destroyed in that battle. Even the bacterial pneumonia the virus is stripping the defenses of the body. In ways that are unique. This is Going Forward the press in the United States say this is a terrible thing weve gotta worry about this and do something about it or to the press not really cover it that much . Because we were at war and because there was this infrastructure for the war effort that had already been created to give out nothing but good news, the press echoed National Public health it was tony fartsy back abthere was no tony aanthony fauci back then. They were minimizing it in addition the press also echoed back. In phoenix they wrote a little bit about when he was in boston they wrote less about it when is in new orleans when it was in phoenix he read the phoenix newspapers there is not a word about it. Hardly any mention. Has the bodies are buried, growing more and more dead bodies, where are they going . People recognize a lot of dead bodies coming around. How do they explain that and where they get buried . Its funny, to give you an example, in philadelphia at a time when they were actually digging mass graves and when they finally closed schools, saloons, churches, one of the newspapers actually said, this is not a Public Health measure, you have no cause for alarm. But people knew, obviously, there digging mass graves and closing everything. Neighbors dying 24 hours after the first symptoms. They knew perfectly well this was not ordinary influenza that led to real framing of society. You mentioned earlier, president wilson committed president wilson actually make a statement about this . What did he say about it he met. Not one word. Never did he make a single Public Statement about this pandemic, as far as he was concerned it was a distraction from a war. The reason he didnt do it because he wasnt convinced it was a problem or didnt want to detract from the war . He was obsessed with the war. A strange person he would focus on something and that would be it. The war was all he cared about. He went to paris to help resolve the war he spent roughly 6 months there. Did he contract the virus when he was there . He did. One of the unusual complications of the 1918 virus was mental disorders. Even to the extent the people that oliver sacks wrote about in the awakenings prophesied that was a result of the 1918 pandemic. Wilson had 103 degrees fever, everybody around him had commented on how disoriented he was. He held firm to the principles the u. S. Could going to war over it before he got sick. After he got sick he couldnt remember anything, he was disoriented. He ended up caving in. In other words, the positions that come in tow wanted were more punitive to the germans then what wilson had wanted. Those positions prevailed and how did that work out in the end . You had it exactly right. Thats what clemens won on practically every point. Of course the Second World War probably came about because of some of those putative things against germany but lets go on to the next subject which is what are the lessons that you took away from the work you did . What lessons would be applicable to today from what you did in your research and writing . There were two lessons, the first is best way to handle an outbreak like that is for the leadership to tell the truth. Transparency was absolutely crucial. The second lesson grows out of the first kind of impossible to get without the first. That is most of the cities in the United States did a lot of what we are doing today, social distancing, closing schools and so forth but the ones who did it later after the virus was already widespread in the community was too late to have significant effect, the cities that did the earlier before the virus really got widespread much greater circumstance during the pandemic, certainly the phrase flatten the curve, which we all are too familiar with almost no, definitely flatten the curve in those cities and in some cases the deaths were actually less possible because of that. And i was asked to participate and there was a pretty Detailed Analysis of what cities did in 1918 and the conclusions were what i articulated a moment ago. You do it early before the virus is widespread and you can have an impact. If you wait until people start dying, its too late. The virus is already so deeply seated in your community the impact is much less. The main message to somebody would take away from your book and youd like them to take away is you want government officials to realize that the to realize that the problem and the as a people. Is that your main point . Yes. Once you do that when you finally closed down schools and businesses and ask for people to heed your warnings and a vice they are not going to do it if you havent been upfront with them from the beginning. Back in 1918 and today social distancing is probably the most effective thing that somebody could do. Is that a fair estimate . Without a doubt. You are as we talk about in new orleans right now what are you doing to socially distance herself from this problem . Well we go we do go for walks outside and thats quite safe. Other than that we really dont do much of anything. Of course with what i do, i work at home although right now im involved in a couple of groups one on messaging to try to get people to comply with groups that are not complying and the other is International Group of scientists of epidemiologists. Im spending a lot of time on that. We dont really do anything though. Im over 70 so i am at risk. I fortunately have some younger friends who volunteered to go to market for me so i dont even have to do that. So i dont want to make it sound like the next book might be indicating a disaster that might arise that what is your next book . Can we assume youre going to predict some other crisis that might happen by writing another book in what you working on next . I was working on a book on the weighs in the coast. Everything that is going to make in the louisiana coast a disaster. We have lost roughly 25 of louisiana coast, 2000 square miles about the size of the state of delaware and what has helped create that land loss starts more than two miles 2000 miles up river on the missouri. It ends at the banks that are going on right now on site and of course then you have Global Warming and Sea Level Rise so i see it as a narrative history that also is a narrative of Global Warming. On the great influenza we have a few questions to for them by email let me give you one or two of them if you can answer them in one of them is from rockford, illinois. Went individual or group provided the biggest positive effects on the 1918 pandemic . Was of some group or an individual youd like to cite his having done the best job, the tony fauci of his day . There was no tony dungy but the American Red Cross certainly behaved adamantly in the Health Care System but all the medical people risk their lives and many doctors and nurses died. Unfortunately it may happen today. Another question we have is from florida. What were some of the newspapers saying about the virus that turned out to be sensationalized and what kinds of fears were spreading to the population and how did the media response . As i said earlier the media said almost nothing about it. They have completely minimized it which turned out to spread warfare. The unknown is the scariest thing. You can go to a monster movie and its much more frightening when your imagination is at work than when the monster appears on the screen. From Arlington Virginia my greatgrandmother young mother of mine died in the 1918 pandemic and the very small village in the ad around the mountains of new york. What unlikely scenarios of how it got to the adirondack . That virus like this great virus is going to get everywhere in the world. There is simply no escape from it. And from oregon the question is a month ago how Congress Works during that time. Did Congress Worked through this pandemic and what did members of congress, nonor did they do very much about it . They were focused on the war. They pass an appropriation for Public Health and so forth and so on. That was about all they did. So today if somebody has the time to read your book which i know you would recommend they will learn a lot more detail about it but let me ask you about one of the Unsung Heroes of the epidemiologists that you talk about in your book. The Rockefeller Institute and now rockefeller university. These people worked slavishly to come up with a vaccine but why do not succeed and why did they come up with a vaccine in why dont we have vaccine for the current pandemic . Number one they did know what caused us so you can develop a vaccine unless you know what the pathogen is. Number two as we have learned since we still dont have great vaccine against influenza because its one of the most rapidly mutating viruses in existence it is very difficult to develop a vaccine. I think there has been a lot of progress in the last 10 years or so towards a vaccine that will work against all influenza viruses or almost all of them so you wont have to get a new vaccination every year. There has been enough progress and that role is likely to be achieved but is still out there. First of all you presumably get a flu shot every season. Yeah. And you highly recommend those as well . Yes because even though they are not tremendously effectively like the measles or yellow fever vaccine influence is much less than that but even if you still get sick after getting vaccinated its much more likely to be a much more mild attack than would otherwise be the case. The final question dr. Fauci has said its likely when this receipt to bet its likely to come back in the winter perhaps. You have any views on whether thats likely to happen and if its likely to be more virulent than to day . I see no indication that its virulent. In 1918 even though the first wave was generally mild they are always hence and you know that you could see in retrospect and even at the time there was tremendous freelance in that virus. There isnt the slightest hint anywhere in the world that this virus has that capacity thankfully. In terms of the timing i say this virus is going to be here forever. It will be a new human disease. Its certainly going to come back. I do think we have very good shot at getting a vaccine for it, good vaccine that is much more stable than the influenza virus and therapeutic drugs and when its gone around a couple of times peoples immune systems will provide much more natural protection than is the case right now. John i want to thank you very much for helping us understand better what the Current Situation is and what the situation was in 1918 and again i really enjoyed your book and i look forward to reading your next book it hopefully wont predict another problem that arises. Hopefully itll be a lesser problem that arises on the book youre working on now. Thank you very much. Thank you very much. I certainly enjoyed it. Thank you. The Trump Campaign spokeswoman Kayleigh Mcenany was appointed press secretary for the chop administration on april 7, 2020. Here she is from january 2018 on our Author Interview program after words discussing her book the new American Revolution the making of a populist movement. She is interviewed by daily beast senior columnist matt lewis. Host Kayleigh Mcenany thank you for being here. Guest thanks for having me. Host lets start by talking a little bit about you and your background and how you can direct this book. Guest a lot of viewers may