[inaudible conversations] welcome to the Houston Museum of Natural Science i am the director of Adult Education here at the museum we have the honor this evening to host mr. Brown on his discussion his new book make think imagine also here at the museum if youre watching through cspan. This evening we have a wonderful presentation and then followed by a discussion with professor minnis cini from Washington University so now i will handed over to laura brown help me to welcome john brown houston. [applause] ladies and gentlemen. I want to thank the Houston Museum of Natural Science for inviting me to spend some time here this week on the board of several museums and galleries i have a deepo appreciation for the role of institutions like this play in the local community and in society more generally. Into a window of the past and the failure of the present and a guide to the future those resources that go above and beyond what we read in books houston is fortunate to have this place and it is a great treasure to bees here. As a natural scientist and engineer i always thought to maintain a Broad Perspective to educate myself about the art to be involved in cultural organizations to go beyond my core discipline. And then to study physics at the university of cambridge in england i have an essay about something completely different to my main area of study so with the architecture and i can explain later to anyone who is interested what that means so with my bonus check and as a more Senior Executive such as the Folger Shakespeare library in washington dc. Today it is one of the Great Stories to be able to spend even more time with such organizations. There has always been something that has troubled me again and again that arts and culture are the foundation of civilization. Certainly it is essential to understand the human condition and then to visit the chapel here in houston but in my view it is proceeded which is the True Foundation of the civilization and what it is built that is why i wrote make, think, imagine with the lifeblood of human progress. Today i want to tell you four stories while writing the book and after the publication. And just as you which and if they want wish and start the internal discussion so for my first story is about the perceived limits. A few months ago i gave a lecture chairman of the board its one of the major Biomedical Research hubs directed by the nobels prize winner and home to several more prizewinners. After my talk and answer a question that made me think arent humans just like e. Coli . [laughter] his question was about the way in which we use because when you put e. Coli bacteria into a vat of fresh nutrients and then exponentially a gross. Things go downhill rather quickly because they battle it out for a plume of resources. And those to argue the human population to push us toward catastrophic competition followed by a decline in the 1950 the american zoologist recoil and as he predicted around the year 2000 and in the club of rome the similar predictions as it talks about the limits but somehow all the predictions about the collapse have never come to pass and that we pace on plays great challenges today with the unintended consequences of progress itself. Some of these challenges such as Antimicrobial Resistance and Climate Change have the potential to become existential threats. But we are not bacteria. Time and again engineers use their ingenuity and imagination to overcome to work around those strengths to build a better world. That is why the amount of oil the world uses with gdp was by one third since 1985 as engineering and thats why texas by a large margin is the largest generator of cheap power from wind in the United States which is why using Carbon Dioxide with the lowest carbon source of oil in the world. And the progress instigated by the development accelerated by Consumer Preferences and guided by a combination of policy of market forces. And made possible by engineering. My second story is about unintended consequences. During the 1980s the dominant Us Communications operator , at t is broken up into several Smaller Companies this was in the 19 nineties and was all designed to open up the market to encourage competition. As you look back to say what all of this has achieved thanks to a series of mergers that at t is bigger than before it was broken up but when it comes to innovation we have lost something at t was described by some as the nobel prize now by no kia with the intellectual property that migrated overseas particularly to europe and china the practical consequences are bearing out today we do not have any distincty Competitive Authority but instead Companies Like ericsson and no kia and the chinesese firm huawei are in the five g mobile internet from asia and europe with these new standards along the way with these new Critical Technologies with the dependence on people in the us five g is being developed this word not matter if it was underpinned by globalization with a constructive dialogue but it does matter when we experience a technological trade war the major feature of which is deep suspicion from china and as a result the us is at risk of falling behind five g is a change to provide the speed and latency needed with robots and drones to transform our economies and those to perform surgery on patients on the other side of the world using extended reality and now allowing them to feel what is going on at the wendy stadium in one Wembley Stadium 360 degrees full coverage that will completely change the way we experience live sports the geopolitical standoff with the speed and breadth and depth of innovation and it can reverse the globalization many of you will remember having to carrying overseas one for the us, one for europe and one for japan. It is my fear we are headed down the same path today. My third story is about making a tacticalto difference. December 11, 1945 after two other men put on their bowties to receive their nobel prize for the research into penicillin a littleknown female chemical engineer called Margaret Hutchinson russo and had been rich in our the history but the star of the penicillin story because she took a promisingit the highly unstable and sold that problem to transform into the drugs to save our lives. By the time of the Normandy Beach landing june 1944 there was two. 3 million doses off penicillin. Production was stored at 650 billion units per month. For me, that illustrates perfectly why such a powerful force in our world. I think engineering like janice who has two faces one looking at the past and the other looking at the future. And in the case of engineering and with scientific discovery with commerce and humanitarian on military and customers where engineers integrate to come up with solutions these are the tools we use to understand and shape oure world. Time and time again engineers to overcome the impossible eschallenges of the past 40 years they have the red cost of electricity and i hope and expect that the same will happen with the same expensive Carbon Capture technology and then it is a response to climate w change. So it shows us so clearly this is what engineering does to take tools for the once expensive and impractical to make them available to make a practical difference in the world printed books there might bulbs automobiles and Artificial Intelligencenc algorithms are all written up in that time to transform. And my final story is about imagination. Takes place in 19th century to be ever more efficient steam engines. That was of pending to establish social order and building the prosperity andd opportunity that would ripple through society. These engineering advances were unleashing the imagination to some of the air as best scientists. And to take an interest in the new engines using what he saw the fundamental principles of the universe and then to be formulated and that to state with universe as a whole with all the greater disorder. To work and a linear way but it works the other way also once the steam engine was made and then to get the inspiration and thats why call the book make, think imagine in that order and then to imagine those cases and times we have never lived in and that have not yet been built particularly in the Energy Industry because the future, difficult then needs and demands of customers are always changing within the next 20 years today oil and Gas Companies with the s p 500 over the last 30 years. And then and then in palo alto. No doubt we will rely on hydrocarbons for a very very long time to come and will account for 75 percent of a significantly larger base by 2040. The challenge for leaders which oil and gas still underpins prosperity in which the climate is not at risk from the unintended consequences in other words we need to take the carbon out of hydrocarbon. That is something ive been trying to encourage people to do for several decades. And in 1997 ceo of bp the first ceo of a major oil and gas company to recognize the threat posed by Climate Change that was more than 20 years ago i have some ideas and we can discuss that later. But for now if i am a continue from president Abraham Lincoln myom the end of 1862 to be an adequate and then just enthrall ourselves. One that i have always tried to follow and then to administer the advent of the inevitable is difficult to imagine and create this cant be done and that always allows us to bring order to disorder and with that chaotic flow of the universe and then to look at the better world to take that vision into a reality write your question down so we can read it. And to explain the title like its a should i be the opposite . So engineering the future of civilization and to introduce us as lord brown and what is the meaning of that title for you . As a practical matter of a former member of the United Kingdom. And why in history it goes back to a very long way. And then to be kept in order. And the head of state and the house of lords and to collect legislation and technology within the unitedee kingdom as well. So the indication he said get a real job. [laughter] what is the relationship with your father . I have a great relationship i wanted to do Everything Different from what he had done in his life so he was a great soldier during the war and in north africa and eventually after being a professor joined the oil industry and was sent to iran where everybody spoke farsi. And so he did. I spent my teenage life around oil and gas and i said i would never join an oil and gas company. [laughter]r] so i went to university and i was determined to say i was doing research at the time with the great people who uncover the mysteries of continental drift and then to say thats not a real job and then rather arrogantly my father retired that very day and i would like to and he said really . I said yes really. And i really didnt want to leave the uk at the time. Attitudes are very bad in the sixties. I said yes. And i imagine myself doing some work around new york. And the letter came and that the Hr Department word address people. [laughter] so off i went to Anchorage Alaska to become a trainee and to work in the field and in the 200 miles north of the arctic circle. And it was very exciting. And after two years i said i love it. He said stick with it. Thats a good piece of advice. My father was vindicated. [laughter] so a Good Relationship with yourio father. Theres always conflicts between the father ands son. I regard this. But you are inspired to solve problems that others to help find Practical Solutions to the most pressing problems. So which pressing problems have you tried to solve . I have tried to solve a a few because they are very pressing but one that is seized me is the oil and Gas Companies and that worries me a lot. I was convinced to produce hydrocarbon in the atmosphere. Thats the problem i started working with bp and the progress has been made and the other one is to have acceptance for gay people in business subsequent in one subsequently to my outing. My mother was a very determined person and in the holocaust and auschwitz and came out believing the best was always yet to come and history was not that important but what you would do tomorrow is d really important. So if you open a compound going beyond petroleum. That has a big impact and so i decided to go into private equity to set up a fund with no hydrocarbon energy. And several companies that are alive and well and doing things today around the world and then changes the way people thinkin about energy. And the Worlds LargestRenewable Energy fund and against all the odds and with the investment return. And also to produce a proper return on investment and to say and private equity and what you are we also make money and also hydrocarbons that the Second Chapter is titled make. And that is at the root of all progress. My whole life with the lyearly days it is very important we dont everyone in the world whether carpentry or something to wear or something bigger like a full house. And that is very human and as opposed to the factory that is producing something and then to feel more strongly about the factory. About have people mixing that appeals to all humans that is a point that it seems to me. But we are doing it so in a way they are building and we are all engineers. And so Like Software for example. So you say it could also be abstract. Correct. But that is a syntax and the change the way in which of the human being and we were able to cut of things with taxes. So if you really are an enginee engineer. But when i ride a book we cannot write the whole time but the day job i have to write or to pick it up or drop it without getting back to the beginning. And then to have no direction. But then you need to be successful and then to have more than 50 pages. So i was wondering who impressed you the most. They are very distinguished because you never want to answer the question. And at mit his name was bob and had life as a chemical engineer he tried 40 times for amoco to work in refineries he wants them to go into hospital work and why the engineer could ever work in a hospital. But to eventually make it the the engineer discovers whether artificial skin or the other things he has done but think of upstream as the river and then it gets to a tumor and it kills that rather than putting the chemicals in the river and then get to the tumor. That is an extraordinary event that just goes to the target with some success one i find it very impressive not only the breadth of his development hes known as the edison of medicine, 25 billion that have been dominated that when i asked him his purpose, his simply said i would just simply like to reduce suffering. I thought thats probably the most impressive thing i have ever heard anyone tell me some. Why did you write the book . I had the privilege and opportunity that only to write about myself because the books i have written are everything in the first person and in my life that ive been very lucky to do lots of things but i had thein opportunity to get some of the greatest people in these areas and ask if i could talk to them. In some ways i was trying to bring my readers into news around the world for those that we couldnt talk to. And that is very important and thats very important to me to make this key point that civilization to keep it progressing to do more, not less of this activity so lets do less of it if it is Antimicrobial Resistance or antibiotics or drugs that dont work against certain bacteria we see the whole thing doesntt work or that we have to engineer a different set of drugs. When there are problems with facial recognition we now open the iphone with our face but we dont like it when it is used for surveillance against people or to discriminate as we see happening in china we dont want that. So we have to do something about that if it happens in our country or we have to recognize everything you do has the unintended consequences bad news as well as good news. That third sector in this chapter, you write it is a favorite for whatis is unique what do you think . I look at the pen as the ultimate way to transfer what is in my w head with great discipline because it is tough. It is very difficult. As an example because it democratizes pens to be invented by hungarian and he invented beautifully designed engineered product and upside down even and with ink and pen and blotting paper to have one simple object and allows you to do amazing things. And now to the words i put on the page and the military resistance between the idea and that gives me space to think. So where we experience the precious moment. Word i said and i have constructed my life the point about what i do is to solve problems big and small. And the way myself is that i can write it down and then i can read it back and it still makes sense and if i read it out loud it still makes sense that i could get close to a solution i cannot waveos my hands and say i heard it on the street so i wrote it down. So to be disciplined it is that resistance to get something don done. I cannot do that with the scree screen. And because i had three kids. And also to have a very dynamic life were sometimes if you have an idea you have to weigh it down if im in the presence of a book i have the privilege to exercise and come back at breakfast and i do this in venice because it inspires me that wherever i stop to see something that is inspiring before i get back. What is the most profound chapter . Which is the one you really had to focus . The one that was the most difficult was the last chapterhe imagine. Because i was trying to make one singular point which is in the end the human being has an exceptional quality and ability to imagine with the machines that do that. And so i wanted to describe that in various dimensions and that was the most difficult thing to do. So i naturally started with the brain and then went to the universe. At this point i want to ask you the most profound message of the book that you wrote . It is about progress. This book is about progress and the fact that it does have the ups and downs that we see the wholes time. We make things, we invent thing things, we think about things that has great intended consequences that come along with unintended consequences. The unintended consequences are things we can do more engineering to say it is too late it is this continuous thrust of progress which i believe isis so important. Attitude is good most definitely for example i think decisions made with information has caused some very interesting in tough situations. The advent of genetically modified organisms to make serial was heavily rejected in europe and less in the us it was based on fear that promoted was not correct but i think at one stage the newspaper said we would be having snowdrops out of the top of our head. These fears are very bad. For example i think the Anti Vaccination Movement is very dangerous indeed. Very dangerous. We need to think carefully before that happens and spreads. Hello hat on the issue has a responsibility to avert this collapse . We all do to communities and politicians and then to get things done for us to live in democracies where expressions of what we believe will eventually change things maybe not the first time but they will eventually with progress equally we can stop progress. I was wondering you write this book with everybody but i couldnt understand because i wanted to ask you what do you mean . So first i wrote this based on my own experience not of a chinese scholar or businessman. Businessman but it would be presumptuous of me to write such a book because i wrote what i know about and civilization is the progress of humanity and the building of people with greater aspirations. Do we have different . Many different societies. And different starting points. But they are all different. And there are different value systems and what is most important around the world but in the end we want to improve when i look at civilization and progress i look in say it is less violent, its healthier, live longer more people can read. That is greater communication. So what is driving but about civilization and progress quick. There is more to progress than engineering and discovery. What it does is provide the opportunity that comes to the will of society and with that right environment for progress to take place. You can do something that none of us have done here. What do you do, what could you do being representative of the people in the Uk Parliament remember, we are a Second Chamber without budget accountability. But you still have the residents. Yes. You certainly have a platform from which you can talk so i talk about the things im interested in that i do believe need to change. Things like Climate Change things like the Energy Provision. And of course ive been a very advocate for lgbt rights. And ive used that platform for these positions. Do see that you are successful . And some cases it moves very slowly, sometimes very quickly. For example, i think the reforms in lgbtq rights move very quickly through parliament. I was one of the voices. In Climate Change we are not, i think, yet at the point where all populations want something done. I think its on the agenda, probably the top of the agenda of the incoming european president. It is certainly on the agenda of every politician in the United Kingdom. Something will be done. Public policy will move to make that happen. I see increasingly not so much at the federal level but at different state levels in the United States same thing is happening there. Do you think the societies those societies progress is higher you have no progress where you have societies but have inclusion and diversity . Generally its more sustainable. Its much more sustainable. Very often i think Business People ask would you prefer to work with the dictator or with democracy and people immediately leapt to the conclusion that the dictatorship you can get a decision made very quickly. That may be true but equally can be on may very quickly. In a democracy and may take longer but certainly takes even longer to make the decision. This is where i think, you are going with the grain of society thats where i think you have to be very careful. We know that you love engineer as much as art. What is the role of art in the civilization we talk about engineering what is the role of art . So it enlightens, educates, and entertains humans. It enlightens them so they have to have the ability and means whereby, i think if we were simply surviving, just survival mode most of our changes or proceeds and disappears. When we kept the time to think about what we will do when we survive art provides enlightenment. Provides education. The transference what one generation does to another one. It also entertains. You write that the prophets will go to a trust will be used for the indication and support the arts. Whats going to happen if that comes from the book. They go to a place where for sure they will simply be used for the education for people who cant afford to be educated in these two topics. You have to stop talking about the book right now and lets say we go to the very last page. What would you like the reader to do what is the action you want the readers to do once they have closed the book. This is not a book full of action nor a business book to go prove yourself in the following four things. But it is a book which i hope allows you to say let me think about whats going on and look at different ways of making things better. And having a dialogue which is based on a little bit more information and i think thats what i would like to have that progress is a good thing that it can be continued. That bad things can be sorted out in the end. But we must keep going. And we have Big Decisions on x essential threats. I need to get those done soon. I hope we get to get uncover a little bit of a mindset of john brown. Whats more important is having the audience asking questions and so so if amy wants to represent you think this is the moment to have the audience thinking about it. I have lots of questions about the audience. Several people wanted to know if john brown can give us insight to us to texans on brexit. [laughter] is a bit easier tonight. Because i believe we are going to have an election on 12 december. I think thats very important because managing the house of commons the First Chamber the Principal Chamber of the elected representatives United Kingdom without having majority without the government having majority is proving to be quite impossible. We are committed under a plebiscite referendum which doesnt sit very well with the way the systems work in the uk but the population voted to leave europe so that must be honored. And we will proceed to do that. Unless the election miraculously produces a party in charge of want to do it. It seems the majority wanted to leave europe and that means we will do that. Personally i wanted to stay but now the election of the will of the people is to leave if we will leave. More of that later. I would say that i have a record of forecasting in this area which is roughly 10 mistakes, no successes. [laughter] why would you like to stay. Im a Firm Believer that a greater collection of people creates in europe in particular reduces tension because when we Work Together we trade together but below attention which i think is important in this area. Its been two provided for two long. Thats. 1,. 2 its a practical matter which trade very heavily with each other. We should probably Stay Together to do that. We also do science and engineering together. We should continue to do that. Having said all that, if youve decided to go, im confident that the uk will do very well, it has to change what its doing but it needs to be inspired to create a new future. Is this a good segue to another question. A lot of these im combining because they are similar. What leadership is needed to progress toward lower Carbon Economy . Ending there has to be an acceptance of the leadership level in companies and in the leadership level of the relevant political bodies. The action needs to be taken which is realistic and done a very clear way. Many people around the world, say we must get rid of hydrocarbons. I dont believe that its actually possible. I do believe that we will probably be consuming about the same level of hydrocarbons and gas in particular. Its not going to grow much but we need to get people to say, given that, how do we do carbon isaac . How do we d carbon isaac . Do we collect Carbon Dioxide that results from burning it and take away sequestrant area in field reservoirs . Do we convert it into hydrocarbons and natural gas into hydrogen and Carbon Dioxide and then bury it but use the hydrogen to burn not the hydrocarbons, wellknown Chemical Engineering technique. What else do we do . I think thats one area. We have all the basic technology we need to apply it but in order to apply it to widescale it needs proper economic incentives or disincentives. That is where the Public Policy comes in. That is what they should be advocating. I think it goes with the grain of younger generations and certainly speaks into the data and the forecast as we see it today. Pretty consistent they been saying the same thing for a long time. And today we see more localized evidence of damage occurring. Whether that is warmer oceans or unusual freak weather. I think its time to do something about this. It wouldve been easier had we started a long time ago because the problem would be smaller. We talk about reducing carbon, where do you see the biggest impact coming from Nuclear Energy . Batteries, storage . If i may, they are two different things. One is the use of hydrocarbons which are very powerful things. They have enormous amount of energy in one else. In fact, the only other thing which has more energy is uranium. But there are plenty of other problems with Nuclear Power that societies dont many neighborhoods dont like them in their neighborhood. Nuclear reactors. Some do. The rate of growth is determined by Public Acceptance but there is hydrocarbons and then there is Everything Else. And Everything Else is Renewable Energy, solar and wind, its biofuels made from plants. Notably sugarcane. Its hydro its nuclear all these things have up to a smaller portion of Global Energy but is expanding. Thats why if the population the world grows and the economy of the world grows we will use very much more oil and gas but use more of these things. We need to continue to develop that. Very different approach to Energy Provision with some complexity. To do with changing the way we transmit the Energy Around the world. Around the nation and how we sport it when it cant be made. If the sun only shines during the day the wind actually blows only certain times normally of the day and so at night we need another way of making electricity. Or storing it. That has limitations at the moment. I would expect people to make breakthroughs in those areas too. Can you comment on the plastics pollution in the ocean . Which is a pressing crisis. Is certainly is. You have to ask where it all comes from and quite a lot i think puts down and began geothermal mistaking. The biggest problem is collecting the plastic. If you could collect it then you can do something with it. Theres no reason why in the United States and europe we shouldnt be doing just that. Collecting it and either transforming it into a lower quality plastic or else burning it for energy and doing something with the Carbon Dioxide. Thats all possible. We should probably use less of it. There are unusual, some plastics that are very difficult to capture, microbeads and things like that. We have to rethink whether we should really use these things to him is there a substitute . But we shouldnt get carried away. I wouldnt like to abmany people say lets ban plastic. Lets reduce it. Some applications that are through the modern wonders in particular in medicine. I think there are probably here that remember having injections with glass syringes and steel needles. Which used to be put into an autoclave to be made sterile. Nowadays we just unwrap something, which is preloaded and get that no one can feel it. Everything is wrapped up with plastics. We need to keep doing this otherwise we will suffer. We will get infections that we dont like or we will be inconvenienced. Plenty of things like that. A lot of plastics also go into things like that are really readily recycle because they are so big. Parts of cars and things like that. Thats very different matter. Its all this waste that just gets thrown away and wanders into the oceans. And then into fish its very bad. Can you comment on aand what we learned since then . Certainly. I cant do it firsthand because i wasnt ceo of bp at the time. But i think the industry learned a lot about decisionmaking, how every decision needs to be tech checked and double checked. Because of the drilling for oil is deeply hazardous process its been well known to be hazardous. And every decision has to be checked and double checked before its made. Before its acted on. If you think about it its like checking in an airplane before you take off. The pilots go through checklists even they know im sure they all know that its fine but they take it very seriously. I think we learned something about that, the orders and the discussion on the ratio. But thats the process point. We learned too that very large disasters can wipe out companies and bp was very close to being very severely damaged if not at the edge. It has come back with the leadership but it was something that people remember vividly. A small set of bad decisions creates a very big disaster. Can you comment on Artificial Intelligence in our future of giving Computers Power . Marie try to summarize this. I think Artificial Intelligence is a very great thing and its good to see it developed with specific applications. Everything from ophthalmology which has lots of ai applications. Driving diagnosis very well through to the way in which i think your suggestions for purchases are presented to you in your screens depending on your habits is all actually a little application of ai. And it continues to get better and better. And it continues to look as if its intrusive. So be careful how its policed. Its not about ai its how we use it and what we think about when we do that. What regulations and engineering prevents it from being abused. I think there is a very big scare, which is artificial general intelligence which is, can you build a human . I think we are probably very long if not an infinite way away from this actually happening. You cant define human intelligence. Before you build something you need to define what youre doing. In the case of specific applications you can define what youre doing. You know what the objective is. And you can define it. In the case of human intelligence we dont understand it. We are looking at brains we dont understand those very well. We can understand fruit flies brain very simple about how it smells and does things like that. A mouses brain is a little more, we dont understand that in human brain we are nowhere close to really understanding the microstructure of the brain. We understand very basic things but actually emulating it will i think take a lot of time. So i dont get too scared about someone coming to see me who is not me who i cant turn off. When i say you know what i would like everything you touch turning into gold i actually do it and the world is suffocated by everything being gold. I dont think we are going to get there ever but i may be wrong when an archaeologist takes this book out in 150 years and says what a strange person who didnt believe in the future of us robots. Maybe i will be wrong but i think i might be right. What kind of car you drive head is it economical . [acustoma i drive two cars, so that in itself is uneconomical. Since i always tell the truth i will tell you what they are. First is an ev, a golf ev, its a very nice car, its very expensive for what it is. Therein lies the story about ev. They need to get less expensive otherwise they will not penetrate the market. You are paying a very big premium between gasoline golf and ev goals, you can see the difference. But its a very fine car for in town driving. My second car is a very large mercedes. I enjoy that very much. Used to be on the board of mercedes. I would expect that one day it will be converted into a hybrid, mercedes, then probably into an all electric mercedes. Lets see how that goes. Do see a trend growing with electric vehicles . Yes. But i think theres a few things that need to be done. Most of all theyve got to be engineered down to an affordable level because i think theres a limit to what people will spend on an automobile. I think we covered most everything. Can you comment on how the internet has changed engineering . Tremendously. Its changed everything. In the act of building and discovering and building. Because you can get many more opinions in one place very quickly. You can have teams built from faraway places with different ideas and different views. You can access the past very quickly. It has changed everything. Sometimes not well. It has no Due Diligence done on what you learn what you can certainly learn a lot and you can collaborate in ways that are inconceivable when i was practicing first as an engineer. Thank you. Help me think doctor afor being here. Especially our special guest john browne, author, engineer, maker, for being with us. [applause]