Carville, jeff flake, karl rove and Bret Stephens with your moderator bob shrum. [applause] to my right is James Carville, he led the Clinton Campaign and many campaigns before that. Next is senator jeff flake. [applause] who i now feel on becoming best friends with, the author of the conservative arrear Senate Republican to disagree with trump. Third is karl rove, the strategist for the 2000 2004 Bush Campaign and a powerful voice in the public arena in the gop and finally Bret Stephens, the New York Times columnist who recently wrote an oped entitled can anyone save the gop. Now, james has asked me if he can start this off by presenting a gift to carl go ahead. Carl writes the urine column making predictions for 2020 and his first prediction was James Carville would be happy to win the national temperature. So you are oneforone on the year and i bought you a gift, do you know who that is. That is general sherman who is the first president of l. A. Shoe and assist kicking ass from the getgo. We will ask you what it is and you will now know. He taught georgia in january 155 years ago and taught South Carolina in january. And joe grew up 42 miles from each other. We are going to talk about the rest of carls prediction, whatever predictions people have and i will start with james. From an analytical point of view, not what you want but what do you think is happening in the democratic race right now . Im supposed to come here make all you democrats feel good and all you republicans feel nervous, i cannot do that. I am nervous. If i played out you really have to have an assumption that we get to the fall of united. And i think the divisions are going to manifest themselves, hopefully somebody emerges with the skill that can unite the party and go forward but there is a high chance, it really doesnt exist anymore, theres a chance that we fracture. Its a process that time goes on, the best scenario if you want the democrats to win the iowans New Hampshire but that doesnt seem likely to happen. It is a likely chance of bloomberg and bernie, neither one have been traditional democrats. Which is really kind of odd but the kind of bloomberg scenario that bernie would emerge and be the last one standing, i cannot tell you if its 5050 going to happen but its not a long way out there kind of that prediction. I see that happening easily. When that happens who knows what. You will have pretty serious risks. It is really funny because a nonrepublican pretty much did in the Republican Party and the democrats at the hour of great need might be facing two people who are not really democrats, i guess bloomberg is now in Bernie Sanders is a socialist not democrat, hes not a member of the party. Bloomberg has switched parties as often as Winston Churchill and the beginning of the 20th century. Let me follow up on that. Do the rest of you agree if a sanders or warren enters the party and bloomberg with the billions and advertising cannot only become the modern alternative or the centerleft alternative that actually prevail . Im a little dubious about it, i have Great Respect for Michael Bloomberg and he did in extranet a job as mayor but is not really democrat in the traditional sense. I just think the idea of the billionaire, if it ends up being the billionaire versus bernie, people a lot of democrats will say i want the true democrat but frankly i think boom blurre is your bloomberg is overrated. His entire strategy abiding employee before march 3 with 40 of the democrats are going to be elected that he has spent probably a billion dollars by that day in two weeks ago he was at 217 million on television alone. But i bet you hes close to a billion dollars by the third of march in some idea fighting will collapse by that day and he will inherit biden in inherit the stunner of the Democratic Party and become the guy and i dont see its going to be that easy. Im with james i think the democrats have a real problem with rationing because bernie has momentum, enthusiasm, excitement and leading in iowa and New Hampshire, i dont think he does as well in nevada and South Carolina and the things goes on to be a contest. But he got 43246 of the vote against hillary, it cannot be easily dispatched by billions from bloomberg. You think Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren is electable . Yes. Sure, i dont know about warren but sanders certainly. First of all anyone who is a nominee is electable. If you are the nominee of a major party theres at least a 40 chance you will win the election. Having been the governance betrayed her 1992 im not sure i entirely agree with that my whole experience of this comes from trying to think seriously of my serial mistakes of coming from the 2016 election were not just try but my colleagues at the time were convinced that while trump had a great deal of enthusiasm behind him he was a French Movement that there was a hard feeling that the fact he was likely unelectable would make mainstream republican see main that he would Say Something or something from his past will come to light and seek his candidacy. In the improbable event that he won the nomination, there is no chance in hell he would win the election, wrong on every account. It moves us to think through those errors. And the reason trump was able to win is that he spoke in his way, i dont agree with much of what he has to say but he spoke a deep truth to a large section of the Republican Base. He was a guy that was willing to say things that other competitors were not willing to say. The fact that he was able to draw those in normas crowds with a very telling indicator that people should have been looking at, the evidence of the senses of opposed to all the thunder tree that he cannot go there. He has all those in some if he becomes the nominee, i dont see democrats moving away from him because the desire to unseat trump is so powerful among democrats that most of the Democratic Party will swallow hard and vote for bernie and hope he will be contained by congress whereas many republicans waving republicans the did vote for Hillary Clinton in the last election. One thing in respect to bloomberg i dont think he has much of a chance but in the event he does become the nominee his slogan should be vote for me, im a real billionaire. [laughter] he was asked in texas the other night, do you think the American People would accept a president ial race between two texas billionaires and he replied, who is the other one. [laughter] i dont think its wise to easily dismiss joe biden. I think those who dismissed her more prone to dismiss him dismissed him by now. And he is still there and still leading in most of the country. Recent polling does suggest that democrats, i think this is led to Elizabeth Warren sinking in the polls because they do value beating donald trump more than they value having somebody that they agree with on almost every issue. So i recognize my own predictive failures in the last election and all of us, i think that might lead us to say Michael Bloomberg cannot be counted out if joe falters. I do think if you look at the midterm elections as any kind of proxy, there were 50 million more democratic votes cast around the country them republican votes. A lot of those will be wasted in california or the Electoral College but there is a lot more enthusiasm and i do think that will be toward someone they believe can be donald trump so i think joe biden is still the likely candidate and in that case i still think its a democrats to lose. I think bernie or elizabeth would lose to donald trump. I want to turn unless you have some to say, i want to turn to some other things about the democratic race before he turned to the other side. Come all the harris into the race and thought her hole card with South Carolina because the electorate there is heavily africanamerican. And it turned out africanamericans did not rally to her, she was monitoring well with them. In the same thing happened to cory booker and the same thing happen with hispanics or latinos to hooley o hooley castro. This woman is a california, attorney general, goodlooking, pedigree, she had nothing to say. She stepped up and took the pictures and drop the bat and went back to the dugout. She should speak about healthcare, its a big issue in the Democratic Party. She took three looks and that was it. You gotta swing the bat and try. [laughter] everybody was kind of excited. The best scenario is biden but theres a saying in the marine corps, if you wish in one hand and do Something Else in the other hand, the other hand will for love foster then the hand you wish in. [laughter] and i just have the Democratic Party becomes a labor party in the uk. They ran against the guy who is unpopular and could not comb his hair, thank you. He got out of something yes no idea how to come into it. It was an election that should have one hands down. And they did not. When you go in say yes, they will vote, you are right, he got 46 points in 2016, they got 44. 8 and 2018. There polling 42. 5, just convergent like 57 of the country want to change. If we put somebody up that offer some reasonable tank, people say we need to get these crazy people to change, you got a pool for 57 your drawing from, thats a good number. The other thing that is happened in american politics, i am sorry but the suburbs have become democratic and it came fast. But those voters were not democrats like i am. Most of them voted republican and moderate and became democrats because of trump, you can lose these people and thats what i worry about. Also, the burning people, anybody not with them as a sellout, trader, a corporate horror, you name it. And if you look at the stories on facebook, wha once you go don that path its very hard to pull back. It is very hard. I want to make one thing, theres a difference between sanders and warren, Elizabeth Warren is a democrat and a capitalist at the end of the day. She is, you may not like that she wants her taxes but at the end of the day she is. They get lumped together in she did too much to chase the left tail around and if she is able to scratch out a third and could come back and read tempted way and talk about the things she learned, but i do not equate her and sanders in the same thing. Im with james on the view the sanders is dangerous for the democrats. The democrats could be for him but the selection will be decided by eight, ten, 11, 12 of the electorate this is an open devoting, i would like to vote against trump but i will not vote for a lunatic. If you want evidence take a look at House District 28 in texas last night. This is a district that was one by donald trump i10. What is been going away from the Republican Party, the very popular republican state legislator got a in 2018. Ted cruz one by 3. 1 . Which is pretty damn close in texas. The democrats came in big, spent 1. 3 million on behalf of a woman named markowitz, biden endorsed her, bloomberg went doortodoor, Robert Francis or work move there the last week, Julian Castro went there, but obama endorsed, 500,000 from the state legislative races, 1. 3 million, 97 of contributions were outside of the district, 71 outside of texas, the republican is sort of goofy, he is adopted 11 children, does triathlons and sort of goofy crusher 58 46 and the largest turnout of the history of any Texas Special house election by the third larger than the next biggest. 58 46. Im sorry 58 42. So he gets twice the margin that his predecessor resigned to become a chancellor of the university of texas. In charge of all the helping. What happened . They brought in the National Democrat sue had Elizabeth Warren in favor of immediate fracking and you had joe biden hes in favor of an immediate end to drilling in the gulf of mexico which is a huge driver, the single driver in the economy. Hughley and castro who goes doortodoor in favor of universal healthcare for illegals and Robert Francis who said were going to take your guns if they dont agree with me and homosexuality. They nationalized the race and whatever happened to the suburbanites who are willing to vote for joe biden or reasonable democrat said the republican is talking about property tax relief, Public School support, School Safety programs, Emergency Preparedness because of the hurricane area and hes talking about things a care about and always of the democrats saying things that offend me as a suburbanite. The one thing that will bring them back their link today with the term of the democrats but the thing that will bring them back to the republicans in 2020 will be if the democrats nominate somebody who scares the ship out of them and bernie does not. You said it i did not. But you agree. I am fascinated with identity politics question i asked, we will do more horserace stuff but its very interesting that africanamericans did not go to the africanamerican candidates, hispanics did not go to castro in the usc times pull will have data on who women are supporting on friday. And Pete Buttigieg does not get the youth vote. What is happening . I think identity politics are overrated. First of all often what seems to announce higher as identity fit does not seemed like an identity fit for an insider. Im jewish the idea for voting for Bernie Sanders is insane. [laughter] would you vote for trump if he was the nominee. I would vote for the libertarian. [laughter] so i think we tend to exaggerate how those identity affinities, you vote for the candidate ultimately that you fall in love with. In that sense of passion is a great driver which is why i disagree with james and karl about bernies chances as he becomes the nominee. I appreciate and understand the power of the argument but its hard to argue with those crowds and if you are under the age i am 46 meaning the soviet union collapsed when i was about 18 i just turned 18 years old. Anyone younger than i am, the word socialism and the fact that Bernie Sanders was hanging out with ortega and all the stuff that matters is someone my age or older, mean 0 or next to 0 to any of your kids or grandchildren. When sanders says socialism, what are you talking about, im talking about copenhagen, great medical care, its fairly credible. The fact is he has qualities of sincerity and a certain kind of model mania that has an appeal for the same reason if you had told me that january 2016 when i first came to this festival it will be donald trump, i would say you are crazy, hes not even a republican, hes obviously out of his mind and in a given moment he will start quoting mussolini and it did not stop anything because he was able to reach deep into the heart and soul of a certain quarter of a Republican Base and reap persuade the remaining republican that whatever his flaws he was preferable to the alternative on the other side. Thats why trump won then and sanders has a good chance to win now. Jeff, i think for the same reason. You talk about trump winning a lot because of economic anxiety that he played on particular in the key states, pennsylvania, wisconsin, i think bernie will if he is the nominee get most of the democratic votes but theres a lot of independence, 8 10 the karl mentioned that simply will not go for him. That i think spells a trump reelection if he is the nominee. I think there are a lot of millennials who dont understand what socialism is, you are completely right and they arent concerned but those who are going to the ballot box was some economic anxiety or concern are not going to go for bernie i think they will go for trump. You know what joe bidens number in iowa 18 34yearold. 3 . I did not double check it but he has a reputation of being an accurate guy. And i pointed to him for a long time. In 0 eight, you are 20 years old in your experience with capitalism did not end very positive. You have seen inequality, the cost of education skyrocket, they dont have any particular reason to be in average with the free market system. They really do not. , if you read two pieces, john who i agree with more than any single human being in the world in new York Magazine and Rob Bernstein who is a very political analyst, smart guy on the cost of the stuff that bernie is proposing. People say you just have a argument if you say. Yes they will come out and say 40 trillion. And they will have Something Like that and stays in the range. And you ought to make an informed choice. The other thing is, Bernie Sanders has never been better. And im just going to tell you why because he ran against hillary and now everybody is scared to. But if you read, this is something, the other side tries, people say will do this and run this play, they are trying to tackle you thats the way the game works. I just hope whoever the nominee, i hope the democrats make an informed choice. Because right now they do not have all the information. That you dont need to reshape watch Norah Odonnell in the last 36 hours where she said what the price tag and he said i dont know i dont care. He does not pretend that its not going to cross. The most restrictive virus in the Democratic Partys cultural arrogance. He is not culturally arrogant, he does not give the order that he fixes better and he says yes itll cost more but why dont you just added up, i think climate, im scared to get there nobody scared however, you want to get rid of nuclear energy, i think with should build more nuclear plants. For god sakes man, you we configure engineering out, you could extract every gram of carbon from the atmosphere and still it will plug for the next 25 years. Were not engineering, were dead. You have annoyed you how bad this is. People dont. But if you have to treat it fiercely and if anybody comes to you i think you have to tax carbon, have nuclear, engineering, diplomacy, treated like its a serious problem deal with the on its own without acknowledging it. Theyll save theres no doubt this is the biggest crisis in the world that we ever face. But you have to be serious, the environmentalists did, they did. Right now we are not taking this issues fiercely. I want to move on to trump in the general election but before that i want to come down and you can start, what your take on iowa in your prediction five days out. My take is the turnout is going to be so enormous and so difficult in the 15 threshold, we will be surprised, we might be surprised that Bernie Sanders wins by 11point but the idea that this will end up like 27 23, 2018 i think the whole system if i appreciated, and a long interview, the whole system will be taxed and the way they do it we did not have to do it in 92 because we did not compete in iowa, if you go in there and you dont get 15 you go to the other place, watch the turnout, Mike Mcdonald told me it was 135 million in 2016, and might be 160 million when you interject that kind of engagement in the political process, something is going to change and something will get. 2018 had the highest turnout in the election since women have the right to vote. We understand that thats not a tidbit to pass around at a bar at night that is a staggering story. That is staggering. In the levels engagement of going out. This is not a good time for the prediction industry. Jeff do want to go to work on the prediction industry, tell me what do you think is going to happen in iowa. Bernie wins iowa but it doesnt matter much. Rick won iowa for the republicans in 2012 and nobody knew that night but the time the next day it happened everybody moved on because they thought mitt romney won, you move so quickly to New Hampshire after words its almost an afterthought. I do think bernie will win but bidens challenge is to not come in third or forth or down the list and as long as he is competitive and settable for not necessarily New Hampshire but North Carolina or nevada or South Carolina. I am with james this will overwhelm the democratic apparatus, the requirement that you show up at 1681 precincts and if your candidate does not have 15 you go home or change your mind and go some videos. That will cause this night to be very long, i do disagree with james, im more with jeff on this, the senators are right, i think it be relatively close i think there will be at least three probably for and could be five candidates to get delegates, 41 delegates i would not be surprised to see the top between number one and number three for the difference of delegates to be the different between 16 and 13. I think bernie will have momentum coming out of i iowa and New Hampshire but he has a big Group Running around at the state but a big player in the democratic side of the Culinary Union who hate medicare for all because they love their goldplated private Health Insurance and its how they get their members, they say you are slinging hash in a diner or waiting tables or cleaning rooms, join the Culinary Union and will give you goldplated. They are not going for bernie. Between South Carolina they will not go from the guy from the weird state where they drink coffee with maple syrup and it, they will go for biden and i think will find ourselves on march 3 with probably two or three or four candidates having blocks of delegates in some sense that they can be a player. I love making predictions, you might remember my mistake. But here we are, i suspect that bernie wins narrowly and iowa, handsomely in New Hampshire and moves on with a considerable amount of money into. The case for joe biden as far as i can tell on paper rather, you actually see the candidate and its another story. That form of retail politics really still does matter. He just seems to me, i have Great Respect for him as a man and so on but the jeb bush of the 2020 cycle. It appears to be terrific in theory and does not communicate and feels distinctly low energ energy even you are quoting trump for god sakes. That will have an effect. By the way the primary process in the caucus works of the different between republicans and democrats. The republicans light on the obvious candidate as a earlier stage and theres a process of tribulation and then it happens where democrats it strikes me have a habit of falling in love and when love strikes is like lightning and thunder when obama went into i went into thousand eight, everyone thought remember there was no love for her and boy was their love for him. You mentioned senator kerry had the funniest line in the markham politics. He said [laughter] a couple of comments, you do not have to comment on that. First we all realize there are going to be three metrics and iowa, they will report for the first time the initial total vote including the people that dont make a threshold of 15 , they will report them who do make 15 leaving out the ones who did not and then they will report delegate equivalent which is the number of delegates who go to the regional convention. We could wind u end up with thre winners. I would democrats have proved to be pretty pragmatic since every nominee since 96 has one iowa. I think as the mines get concentrated over the five days, joe biden whose numbers have held up markedly well nationally after they predicted he would fall apart, i think theres a good chance you will win and i say that by the way remember it on showtime on the circus, the sunday before the 2016 election i said no how, no way, not in this universe or any universe can Donald J Trump elected president of the united states. Now i want to turn to the republicans, the trump strategy so far seems to be to double down on a campaign directed to his base. Last time he drew to an inside straight narrowly carried wisconsin and michigan and change 38000 votes, Hillary Clinton as president. If you were in charge of the Trump Campaign, what strategy would you have trump pursue and you think you will do it . Let me slightly disagree, i think they talk like they are spending all of their time focused on the 46 but in reality they are not, people pick up they are not. If you talk to them, they are going to make a legitimate effort to get themselves from a of the africanamerican vote to 13 or 14 which may sound anemic but if you win michigan by 11000 votes and you have a of their vote. Your 20000 votes to your total. Latinos are looking at the economy saying we have 28 can we get ourselves to 32 or 33. The question is whether or not they have a strategy for the suburbanites whom they got 2016 insufficient numbers because it was Hillary Clinton they were running against and lost in 2018. I think strategy is reasonably simple, duplicate what barack obama did in 2012, his of reelect numbers in december of 2011 were similar of the president and 20 in 2019. Obama said i had a second act uses state of the Union Address and other things the dreamers in the summer of 2012 to say i have second act in me. The second thing he irradiated mitt romney particularly a moment of vulnerability, this is a plutocrat that does not have any concern for ordinary americans, he has an elevator in his garage paid for by all the money for the companies he consulted with or advice. They did that starting at the moment of vulnerability, late spring early summer when romney was going to be the nominee but out of money. Thirdly that a meticulous effort of an army of persuasion to get out there vote. The third thing the Trump Campaign is doing that. Whether they will get the other two are very much up for grabs. We only have seven and half minutes. But you are taking notes. The dominant feeling among democrats around the country ill tell you what it is, fear. That is what every democrat feels deep down inside but we cannot blow this. This is going to be a journey, it will not get decided monday night or decided in a short period of time, given the levels of engagement, where people walk, look at the democratic fundraisers. Look at the Senate Democrats opposed to the republicans. Money is pouring in on the democratic side, we cannot stop it. Because everybody is scared and people are going to focus and refocus and focus again, these are not normal times, they are not. Not a predictable thing. There is too much engagement, too much fear, too much turmoil. I dont know what the hell happened but a lot of democrats i am scared. If i were to advise the Trump Administration pharmaceuticals and whatnot where you can going to suburban usa and say heres what ive done working with the democrats dont mind all this heres what were doing. Those opportunities are quickly vanishing in an Election Year end opportunities to work with the other side and when he gets in Campaign Mode he cannot look at any of the Campaign Stops like the one in new jersey and try to argue, he is appealing to a broader electorate. He knows nothing on the campaign trail but to double down in the time to work with congress and getting something you can point to saying im really doing these things is quickly vanishing. Usmca, he is not my favorite and im not his favor. But give the guy the do. Strong economy, good job numbers, usmca, china and we can talk all day long as to whether or not its a big deal. And he has a similar ability to say were working on china second round and were making great progress with the uk on a free trade deal with britain so he does not necessarily need to have things in congress. But i want to say i agree totally with james that there are so many variables and so much at stake in the selection it will be hard to predict. Where than any election since 1980, the outcome will depend on the individual campaign and candidates he handled themselves from the time of the convention in july in milwaukee and the republican in july through the election day because there will be a lot of people to sit there through regardless of who the nominee. Dynamic is different if its biden and sanders but a lot of people will say will the other be better for the next four years . And how the two candidates, trump and who the democrats choose handled themselves during the 90 110 days will be really critical in what we have not seen since the final moments of october in 1980 when the country said what most of us are previous exposed to vote for carter but enough up for grabs that were open to voting for reagan if he convinces these up for the job in the last 20 or 30 days of the election. How that will play i am with james, damned if i know it will be one hell of a thing to watch and how they handle themselves and have a huge impact. I agree with karl, i offer a counter thought which are not even trying entirely agree with. [laughter] but the art of disagreement extends to myself. Other than sanders, warren i vote for any democrat because i think this president is so atrocious. But this republic will survive a second trump term number one because we miraculously all are living and breathing for years after his first term. The second thing is if trump is reelected it will be the worst thing for democrats. James said something earlier on which i think is very true, the Democratic Party today is deeply culturally out of touch with the rest of america is and you see it especially with people with the fact that we have 3. 5 unemployment in this country which is miraculous and a fantastic figure and seems to cut as if it doesnt matter the people at the margin of the labor market are suddenly finding opportunities to be employed. That really does matter and when a Democratic Party historically has reported to represent workingclass americans or americans who are at the very margin of society ceases to care because nobody that they no is out of work, nobody that they no has the struggles that a lot of workingclass americans do then that party is in trouble. I dont think because the democrats have spent so much time convincing themselves that trump put his way into power, they have not come to terms in a deep sense with the meaning of his presidency. Something like that out of happened and will help the Democratic Party in the long term in the meantime i hope the democrats nominate Mike Bloomberg and ill be very happily to vote. Fundamentally we had the biggest fear in history. Other than the one in texas, 85 of the special election outperformed democratic performance. We won the governorship in kentucky and louisiana. Kentucky and louisiana. This party has 57 of the electorate. If it is smart we should win in a landslide. And Everybody Knows most people benefited from trumps economy is an urban area and a democrat. This will win the senate back, we had for senate seats right now, we are winning in the game into seats in georgia. With ourselves. We have a golden opportunity, this is stuff that you wait all of your life going into the general election. Karl was shaking his head no, we have to end on this. I dont think trump can get reelected but the democrats he cant talk his way in but we can talk our way out. James, jeff, karl and brought thank you very much, we can going twice as long. Book tv continues on cspan2, television for serious readers. Amy teitel is with us today of the airstream corporation. Amy is a phase flight personality. Not unlike her subject she is an academically trained female spaceflight historian writing for a general audience, she runs the blog vintage space hosted by Discover Magazine which is a
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