Establishmentoth parties, democrat and republican, into larger institutions, including my profession, still have a hard time wrestling with understanding who this coalition is, how it is formed, and that donald trump did not cause it, he is the result of it. Host lets take a deep dive into your reporting. You write the following the concrete notion of a donald Trump Presidency did not uniformly crystallize until the wee hours of november 9, 2016. In many ways, there has been no other sunrise in american politics since as the American Public remains stuck in the moment that they served surprise notice that guest that sums it up. If you voted for donald trump, didnt about for him, most people recognize that that is where we are today. Not much has moved from that moment. I tell people all the time when they say what has changed . What is going to happen . Do people still like him . I say it is sort of like groundhog day. Nothing much has changed since november 9, 2016. You woke up that morning, you found that he won, and if you voted for him, youre still optimistic. If you did not vote for him, your hair is is still on fire and nothing is going to extinguish it unless he is taken out of office in handcuffs. Host you were born and raised in pittsburgh. Lets take a look at the breakdown of voters. The democrats maintain an edge of 4. 1 million registered voters. Republicans three point 2 million, and the remainder of independent registered voters, one point 2 million. The results from 2016 just how close this race was. 48. 2 trump winning at Hillary Clinton at 47. 5 . Statemove into 2020, the of politics in pennsylvania is what . Guest lets take a step backward for a moment what people missed about pennsylvania going into 2016, they always look at pennsylvania as the stage that went blue since 1988. Nobody thinks about it, they just think ed is blue. What they missed is that since 1992, pennsylvania has become more republican than it was when bill clinton was elected. Wonclinton was elected, he 28 of our 67 counties, but when barack obama will ran and won, he only won 13 of those 67 counties. That democratic support has eroded. Ands important to remember understand that. Where is pennsylvania today . I think it could go either way. It all depends. It is going to be close. It all depends on who the democrats pick. If they pick a democrat who bands supports banning fracking on day one, that is going to present a problem for democrats and western pennsylvania as well as the scranton area. As ain democrat democrat in pennsylvania if you catty win those two corner areas. If the democrat does not win pennsylvania, they do not win the election. Host the president in hershey, pennsylvania this past week, he has made more Campaign Stops in pennsylvania then just about any other state in 2020. Guest there is a reason for that. Do you remember the song allentown by billy joel . Live in aou manufacturing era area, that was sort of a symbol of what was happening to all manufacturing areas. Indoes the same thing pennsylvania that he did in youngstown, ohio. These areas are symbolic of wheregreat lakes states where Voter Sentiment and experiences and economic decline and economic resurgence are very similar. That is why he chooses pennsylvania as a sort of this stage to tell his story. Even your book takes an broader Historical Context in terms of our National Politics. Following along with brad todd for 20 consecutive elections, two parties put forward the same to basic kind of nominees democrats running as a reincarnation of franklin roosevelt, republicans running in the shape of barry goldwater. No longerhe two sides resembles their modern templates. Guest the two parties completely realigned during the 2012 election. Barack obama won with the new Deal Coalition in 2008. He wisely understood that it was time to reshape the alignment of the party. He focused on women and minorities and young people. With the caveats that he needed class. Ough white working Hillary Clinton sort of dropped the notion that you needed just enough white workingclass or she just assumed that percentage would carry over from obama to herself. It did not. She lacks the ability to connect with those voters. Calculatedde the mistake of not going to those areas like ohio, lake erie, kenosha,nia, like wisconsin and tell those communities that she had their back. Book with few exceptions, these locales are most opinion leaders have never been you made reference to them just a moment ago trump only carried three of americas mega counties. Gopp crawled out of that mathematical hole in the forgotten communities, thousands of them. That to sort of illustrates the divide in this country. The cultural decisionmakers, whether it is the news organizations, government, politics, culture, or inertainment, they live those super zip codes, if you will. Impacting our politics, but it is also impacting our culture. Was making vacuum cleaners 100 years ago, he lived within four blocks of his factory. Who is connected not only to the people who worked for him, but he was also connected to the people who purchased his products. Not have that same sort of connection with our larger institutions. Inc. Of where the nfl is located. T is park avenue, new york that is a far cry on the people in pittsburgh core painted in black in pittsburgh who save all year to buy their tickets and are routed to their communities. That is part of the problem within our culture and within our politics. My coauthor wrote a great piece about this the dnc and the the dnc and rnc political headquarters should move out of d. C. And moved to ohio. They would be more connected to the voters they need to win elections. Host your piece in the New York Post this headline got a lot of attention these voters saying, i would vote for him in a heartbeat, referring to president trump. What are you hearing . Guest nothing has changed. Here is another point that i think people inside washington and new york and the more highly concentrated wealthier areas need to understand this vote first ofrump all, this coalition is not going away. They will be there long after donald trump is gone from office. These voters are very rooted and very connected to their communities. They are unlike their counterparts in these wealthier. Reas are very transient they look at donald trump as the only thing that is sort of protecting them from these larger institutions they believe do not have their back and believe that they do not understand their way of life. With president wn trump back in july and one of the questions we asked him was had he been in contact with his predecessors. He said no, they did not support him. That breaks a sum of the president we have seen in the presidency. Guest are you surprised . Was is part of why he elected. Nationwide, the of trumper voted 9 voters voted obamatrump, but in the great lakes states, ohio, wisconsin, michigan, and iowa, it was 23 . Unhappinessot of with both parties, both democrats and republicans. You have to remember that donald trump did not just rattle the Democratic Party. He also rattled the republican party. There were 17 great candidates standing on the stage with him in 2015 and 2016 and he annihilated them because he was not part of the establishment. Host that is what you write in the book the question of whether trumps unconventional bid nearly picked the lock of another era of republican politics are whether his new fusion of populism with ism is a remaking of the axis completely. Guest whether you like it or not and i think we are pretty much split down half, this is the new republican party. That also means there is a new Democratic Party because these voters have to shift and go in different places. We are pretty much split down the middle in this country. The election in 2020 is going to reflect that. Our guest is salena zito. She is a guest reporter and columnist for a number of publications, including the New York Times and the New York Post. Her new book the great revolt inside the populist coalition reshaping american politics. Lets get to your phone calls. Robert is joining us in atlanta, democrats line, good morning. Good morning. I have not read your book, and maybe i misunderstand its premise, but it seems to me that what has occurred is particularly through the fluke of the Electoral College, a vocal minority has taken over the levers of government. Going on ishat is contrary to demographic trends. I do not think this is something that is going to last. Would like your observations on that. I am hoping that this is the last gasp of a very conservative 1950s view of the world that has unfortunately latched onto donald trump as their standardbearer. Thanks, robert. I love atlanta, i do not love its traffic though. They have been saying that the its lastn party is on gasp since john mccain lost to barack obama. Political parties change all the time. Movement intos change. To your point about how conservative it is, i would stylethat Donald Trumps is not a conservative republican. His policies are. You might benefit from reading the book. This new party is not as conservative as the coalition that tried to put mitt romney and tried to put john mccain in the presidency. There are a lot of people with outlooks on government where they do not mind a bit of government in their lives who are a part of this coalition and do influence it. Alan in thousand palms, california. Republican line. Caller that last caller thinks it is a minority of people. I would say it is a lot more than a minority. The silent majority was quiet. Election be a landslide for trump. Thank you. Salena zito, could it be a landslide . Guest yes. This is in the Democratic Partys court. It was a close election in 20 16. It could be a close election in 2020. It could be a landslide in 2020. It all depends on how far left of the Democratic Party decides to go. That is their big challenge. I think that they understand that. Where they one in 2018 were with candidates for the house that were pretty moderate on health care, on military, and on infrastructure. Very bread and butter Democratic Candidates. It was a very healthy margin. You would think that they would take a lesson from that and run with it, but i have not seen evidence of that to date. Host you can follow her on twitter at salena zito. Contributor also a to cspan cnn. Host bill joins us from death caller selena, youre like a breath of fresh air. Democrats just do not believe that this is real. Why . Because they are staying in their little cook couldnt kind described. Washington, new york, west coast. Guess they are trying to get one together in austin. I voted foris obama the first term. As a republican, the reason i voted for obama was i was hopeful. I did not like john mccain because i knew he was a rhino republicans toe know that if you put a candidate like mccain up, i would vote for the democrats. I could not vote for obama after the second term because of what he did to my health care system, which is basically destroy it. Decent, cheap insurance anymore. Health care has been destroyed by obama. What trump offered, and i saw it early, is he came out, and he willing to step out on stepped on the political hot rails and not get electrocuted. He has done some crazy stuff, but he has done so much good i have to say he has a seriously good chance of getting reelected. What i would say that im going to do is because i am in pennsylvania i cannot vote in the primary across parties. Im going to to switch my registration and make sure i vote against joe biden. I do not to see biden. To beate only potential trump and that is a longshot so i am going to vote against biden and switch back and vote for trump this year. He is not a perfect president. I compare him to abe lincoln. Anyone who is a student of history will know that abe lincoln was treated by the establishment the way trump has been treated by the establishment. I think trouble go down in history as one of the best president s that we have had. Where isthe way, boyertown, pennsylvania . Caller i am not in pencil yltuckyimnns close. Madeleine dean is my new representative. I got gerrymandered in with a bunch of democrats, so unfortunately my representative in the house is a democrat who just voted to impeach the president on the judiciary committee. Host we will get a response to your comments. Thank you for phoning in. Guest bill is a perfect example of those voters who went hidden in plain sight. Voter pollsters did not understand this vote for obama and then this vote for trump because they seemed so polar opposite. I always see them as the other side of the coin of each other in that both of them ran on hope and change. Its just that my profession tends to not understand what make America Great means. They think it is nostalgic or they think it is big it bigoted. Evokes this thing within the american electorate that you want to be part of something bigger than yourself. When i report, i do not fly, and i do not even take interstates. I only take back roads. That helps me understand what is happening in communities and towns, how they are changing between each county and town, because you can see how things are doing better, you can see how things are declining. That helps me understand voters werel who are willing to make change because they were so unhappy with the establishment of both parties. Host those counties including michigan. Y me our guest is salena zito and she chronicles all of it in her book , looking at the 2016 reelection. Quick tweet from john in North Carolina who says it could be an Electoral College landslide, but the popular vote will always be massive in failing blue cities. The color mentioned former Vice President joe biden who came out with then add following the president s trip to the nato anniversary in london. World leaders caught on camera talking about trump. Several World Leaders mocking donald trump. They are laughing at him. [laughter] leaders mocking him for being completely off ballot. Worried. Are the world sees trump up for what he is insincere, illinformed, corrupt, dangerously incompetent and incapable in my view of World Leadership. If we give donald trump four more years, we will have difficulty to recuperate americas image. Salena zito, that ad, is it effective . Guest no. This is the thing that i struggle to watch the Democratic Candidates do in that that ad is great. It appeals to the democratic voter that you already have. What you need to win new voters over is very little effort in ofces like erie and kenosha these candidates trying to win these voters back. What they watch bidens team did not understand with that ad is and you can see the results of Voter Sentiment in the back of the great revolt, there is amazing pulling in the back of the book. But voters were tired of multinational deals. They were tired of america always the paying the most paying the most and holding the larger burden entreaties and any kind of deal that happens overseas. Out the leaders in leadersuntries that in other countries dont like him, that is like bonus points for trump voters. That is not something that h, ire going to be like o am so ashamed, now i need to vote for joe biden. Host this is from mike who says salena zito has the a good analysis. The rust belt and great lakes have long suffered job wise. She should include new york state in that category as well. I lived in buffalo, new york and lived near lake ontario, but i guess the difference is that new york is not a battleground state. Guest right. I am looking forward to that buffalosteelers game this evening. 12 one feeling go ahead, our next caller is from West Virginia go ahead, our next caller is from West Virginia. Caller i have a lot of president s with the problems with the republican party. I believe that they want america to be a plutocracy. I really do believe that. Hannity and i listen to him and i think why in the world woodworking people would working people support the rich. It started with reagan with his tax cut. Then it continued with bush with his tax cut in 2001. It continues now with this president. , nixon and ford were different. I cannot understand. His doing away with the Environmental Policies that were put in place to protect the environment that is another thing. Thank you very much. Host thank you for the call. Guest in 2016, workingclass voters stillon voted for Hillary Clinton over donald trump. People do not realize this, because they think they all voted for donald trump. She just one a much narrower portion of them then previous Democratic Candidates. Always hadclass is a challenge with both Political Parties from supporting union to theto minimum wage environment and on tax cuts. It depends on where you are located as a workingclass voter as to how you see either party. We talked onme cspan radio, you were getting ready for your thanksgiving dinner with your italian scots irish family. What was the political conversation like at thanksgiving and what was it like over a thanksgiving meal with your family . Guest my entire family voted for trump, which is interesting. There are a variety of different they come from a variety of places, whether they have masters degrees are phds or live in the suburbs are live in the city. There is really no disagreement between our family. I use my family as an early barometer to understand what is going on. I remember when he came down thoughtalator and i this is not going to happen. Parents, one is a republican and one is a democrat. They both liked his message about community and the dignity of work. They kept me grounded and kept me from dismissing his candidacy along with my brothers and my sisters, my children, my grandchildren. It is really interesting. I also think and i talk to a lot of people in the country. I did almost 40,000 miles on the road this year back and forth, back and forth, up and down. People outside of twitter are really different. Most people do not have angry political discussions at the dinner table. They have much more important thens to talk about then candidate to beat donald trump pete buttigieg, mike bloomberg, andrew yang, not joe biden, too much baggage. Democrats need to drop him like a hot rock. And yet the Vice President remains the front runner . Guest absolutely. Late people who dropped into the race, i think the only candidate, democratic candidate that could drop into this race and really be a game changer would be sherrod brown, ohio. S. Senator from he has the right tone and understanding of the bluecollar worker as well as the suburban voter to be able to form a coalition nationwide that could challenge the president. I was really excited to cover him in 20 2020. I thought he would rise up before the first debate started. Maybe if there is a convention and he walks in as the guy who didnt have to run at all in 2019 and becomes the nominee host as you look at the polling, hypothetical election matchup between biden, sanders, buttigieg, klobuchar, and warren , with donald trump hovering in the mid to low 40s in that survey that has a margin of error plus or 2 . We go to gary. Caller good morning. Myself to be a libertarian. I have been registered democrat for about 15 years. I really dislike both of the parties. Democrat,generation surrounded by white, catholic democrats. Guns ind onto their their religion. It will be interesting to see which way the catholics vote this upcoming. That is about all i have to say. I believe there are some changes coming to this country. Thank you very much. Have a nice day. To your earlier point , aboutu discussed, steve the polling, one of the other nerdy, interesting things at the back of the book is 34 of selfprofessed trump voters in the great lakes west, we focused on that in our polling, did not tell a Family Member or a friend that they were going to vote for donald trump. Anxious to see what that number is in 2020, no matter what direction that the election goes. Host this is a followup on your family did a salena zitos family agreed with trumps assessment of trumps views of mexicans as rapists . Guest we never talked about that. I will go back to that quote that i said when i interviewed donald trump when i said that voters take them seriously, but not literally. My profession take some literally, but they did not take his candidacy altogether seriously. That goes for a lot of things that donald trump says. There is a willingness to suspend some of your normal becauses to a candidate you are so frustrated with both Political Parties. I think the thing that has really stuck out to me in the aftermath of this election is that both Political Parties, both Establishment Republicans and establishment democrats, to me and to voters have shown very little reflection on what they did, why they lost to that guy. In everyday life, if you lose something, lets just say football you lose to a terrible team. What most coaches and teammates dear god, weay lost to that i have not seen either party go that. Od, we lost to what they see a lot of is that they are made fun of by the press or the establishment. That is not going to win those voters back. Im not saying that means that donald trump wins, im saying that there is still a lack of trying to reach out or reflect on why they lost to that guy. A formeron miller, trump advisor indicating in our conversation earlier today that he still thinks Hillary Clinton will get into this race. When you hear that, your reaction is what . Guest i think i will laugh. But it is not impossible. Anything is possible because you have not yet doesnt mean it doesnt happen, we are still in the contested primary part, but you have not seen a big groundswell toward one specific candidates. There is a reason for that. The Democratic Party is trying to figure out what it is right now. It is a variety of different things. You need a very charismatic candidate to be able to pull all of those factions together. To date, have not seen that yet. That does not mean it will not happen. Following te the political analysts across the spectrum have given trump credit for being a category killer, reshaping republican politics in his image. The coalition he fused in the rust belt should be viewed as a category builder, the first success of a coalition that is not likely to soon separate. Lets go to margie in philadelphia. Book isito, her new out, the great revolt. Good morning. I wanted to contradict what youre saying about how hillary is off the election in 2016. Media, and fbi, the russia all pulling against her to bring her down. You had Kevin Mccarthy going on fox news and saying that when herary got into the race, poll numbers were 63. Look at her poll numbers now. Hillary clinton did not lose the election she had 66 million popular votes. Trump had 62, 63. Host salena zito . Guest based on the voters i thatd to in the states hand the election to whoever the candidate is, whether it is florida, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, or ohio, when i heard from voters that were democrats that either voted for her or set it out was that she did not show up and she did not connect with that they believed would have made a difference. That has been my observation having reported from there. Michigan anding in feeling like i was all by myself because there was no influx of happening, not in the way that you should as a president ial candidate. Michigan matters, and i did not see that from the hillary campaign. I Heard Campaign volunteers frustration about not having the attention they believed was needed to win that state. They turned out to be right. Aim at thelso take 2018 midterm elections, a lot of references as to whether that is a bellwether. Also looking at what happened in Great Britain this week and the landslide victory by Boris Johnson in the conservatives. In the book you write the diminished role of policy issues in the 2018 campaigns was notable. Had urgentlytfolio been brought, but in the most closely fought races, republicans prevailed and narrowly, running on the tribalism of National Politics rather than specific agendas for their projected state administrations. Guest and i think we are going to see that in 2020. I do not know. Something could change, but that is the trajectory we are on right now. It is about culture and it is about tribalism. I would run on, the economy and nothing else. He runs onow that that. I suspect he runs on culture. I suspect he runs again against them and i suspect the democrats, even if they want to run on policy, are going to be forced to run on the same thing. Host marion, indiana is next. Chris, our line for democrats. Thankting period you for waiting. Caller the democrats dropped election inthe 2016. How much do you think the russians really were involved . We are only talking about three or 4 million votes as far as the popular vote. That russianible three or 4 million votes is not really that far off. Host chris, thank you. To a larger point, a difference of 77 thousand votes in michigan and pennsylvania which kept the scales in the Electoral College in thepped the scales Electoral College to the president. Vote voters showed up to for the u. S. Senate or house, their local elections, but they do not vote for president. I do not like either one of them. Who madelked to voters that dramatic choice of either voting for obama twice to voting for trump or being a republican, not liking trumps compartment, and being say a george bush guy a jeb bush guy or a marco rubio guy and finding themselves eventually voting for trump, they are insulted when you say that russia had something to do with their vote. Independentery about how they get to their decision. That russian that russia influenced them, they find insulting. Host our next colors from illinois, independent line. Caller is from illinois, independent line. Caller democrats do nothing but taxes, closeraise factories. They have not done anything by way of legislation to help anyone like the handicapped. Patact passed by democrats changed life for the handicapped around the world. When the republicans are in, they do not care about anyone but them and to the very very wealthy. The democrats are the party of the people and always will be. I am hoping the Democratic Party goes down in flames. Host i think she meant republican at the end. Confused by i was that. I do not think anything would change janets mind. And individualism. It was not. It was about localism and communities and place and rootedness. Would be wise to understand because about localid communities and place and rootedness. Wisconsin, 32 counties in iowa, and 12 counties in michigan switched from obama to trump in the space of four years. Guest absolutely. Were voters that voted for change. It is as simple as that. What i find is really interesting among the obama obamatrump voter is that they liked president obama personally. Aspirationals speeches and his family and how can he conducted himself, but they did not like his policies. You just need to look at what happened in those counties in the midterms. It is a flip with donald trump. They do not like him so much. He is not someone they would invite to dinner because they find his personality on twitter is his personality in real life, but they do like his policies and they do like how it impacts their communities. A lot of people thought this andtion was about anger individualism. It was not. It was about localism and communities and place and rootedness. Would be wise to understand because that nuance because that kind of nuance would help them do better and maybe win some of those voters back. Host roger, you get the last word from hurley, virginia. Quick question or comment . Systemic does a when russia attacked our nation, what does systemic fashion mean to you . Host do you mean systemic fascism . Caller no, systemic fashion. Does it bother people that trump is the problem with this nation . He has no brought any businesses back. Host salena zito, your response . Guest that was interesting. Im not sure i really understand the context of what he was saying. I think the economic numbers different result in terms of jobs being created. What surprised you the most in researching this book . Guest how aspirational people i did nottter who just interview trump voters because i wanted to get a broader understanding of the community that i was in, but that people love their country and they wanted their country to do well and that they are not driven by politics and the way that you see in my profession or on social media. That hopefulness keeps me incredibly grounded. Host the great revolt inside the populist coalition reshaping , itsan politics coauthor salena zito. All right, welcome everyone. My name is sharon burke im the director of resource security here at new america and Senior Advisor including the future of low project will for me to this very special event. New america is a nonprofit nonpartisan