Transcripts For CSPAN2 Michael Rubin Brian Katulis Seven Pillars 20240713

Mckinney continues now on cspan2. Television for serious readers. Welcome. The Smoking Panel is certainly timely giving the rising crisis with a around. Well get to that subject eventually. The mic of the book entitled seven pillars, and the discussion heres a look more broadly and more deeply at the drivers of instability and middle east. From yemen to syria to iraq, and now with around. The region more than ever seems in a permanent state of turmoil. Its become a land of forest and tragically, despite decades of intense and often wellmeaning american attention and the expenditure of billions of dollars, this policy has more often than not a failure. Maybe the caveat more often than not is to find. Its been an absolute failure at the basic game was to foster stability and a better live for the people of the region. Of course the was ultimately responsible for our country news success or failure, are the people who live here. Let the catastrophe of todays middle east, raises a lot of questions about whether the United States should continue to be engaged in the region and if so, how. In this regard, the editors and seven pillars, Michael Rubin and brian and their co contributors, have given us a gift. It identifies seven factors that affects the ability or not and examine what they made in the world roll the play. In the pillars that they identify them as lump arab ideology, and militaries education, economy and governance. I personally found that many of the others the effect to be in useful places to begin looking at problems anyways. Weather it serves as the basis of a new part bipartisan approach in the current poisonous political environment here is anyones guess but at least the others are trying to provide facts and dates reality and analysis to encourage. So with us today, starting with my left is Michael Rubin, is he resident scholar here at aei, Bush Administration and iran and iraq team, and has a phd in iranian history. He contributed the chapter on legitimacy in the region. Next is brian, who is he Clinton Administration veteran and now at the center for American Progress with extensive experience in the arab world. Prior to joining cap, he lives in egypt and palestine 20 work on governance issues with National Democratic institute. And contribute to the chapter on governance. Then we have durham, there is a fellow for the middle east at the Baker Institute rights university. He researches both brutalism in the middle east and the interplay between authorities and Foreign Policy. He contributed a chapter on islam. Im going to to keep the conversation likely. I will interrupt to keep everybody from not just going on and on and will talk for a while and then will open at up to questions from the audience. So to start, i will start with michael. What is special about this book. Would did you think was lacking in the scholarship or the analysis that requires the kind of approach. If we look at the last past century of the market interaction in the middle east combining in a metric like you said in your introduction, u. S. Hasnt been successful has brought a democrat or republican thing. What we wanted to do is number one, get away from analysis based on the u. S. Political calendar. That is is it too easy and it doesnt work. For more broadly do a more fundamental rethink from the issues and drivers in the region. In terms of legitimacy for example this common of course of core assumptions the right states is all about governance. Thats what fills legitimacy. But in iraq, people are willing to forgo in some cases the governance just as they can have a Kurdish National flight or fight over certain building. We also wanted to identify the impact of things we hardly ever talk about in the United States. Im sorry, in the region. Disrupted technology how is that going to change things. How is the foreign aid impacted if legitimacy is that the governance. In the lease foreign aid is to do the right thing and then another in conclusion, the brought issues that was most surprising it to me. Was the many people ask the question what represents the most legitimate government in the middle east. People tend to Say Something like lebanon. And yet lebanon is often thought about in the United States and finally, in many parts middle east has an object disaster. So we are trying to grapple around some of these issues from a much more academic and less political partisan approach. So what is legitimacy and why is lebanon seen as more legitimate than other places. A. For small many to abandon this notion that onesizefitsall. If that is not easy for american policy makers to do. But ultimately, people wanted legitimacy for whatever their identity. They wanted representation for whatever their identity was in the problem is of course, identities change with time. What is clear however, is that people will increasingly finding themselves disenfranchised. This isnt just an issue of the arab spring, has brought just an issue of anti iranian of protest. It just seems to be a failure of the traditional islam and the middle east. In this way about us about his chapter reimagining reconsidering all of the ideologies that play because take for example iraq, percent of iraqis will born after the 2003 war. More than 60 percent of iraqis will born after the 1991 or which means no one has a functional memory of what live was like on Saddam Hussein and therefore there are no longer willing to accept will mean might have our problems from some leaderless all of us groups for example but at least will not on the same. Looking at this generation and succeeded him and these other region and staying, that these guys dont represent something. We have in the United States is much as we complain about politics, usually a 90 to 95 percent incumbency rate in congress. Places like iraqis around 12 to 16 percent. The fact of the matter is as people are current limits in a very dangerous moment. Some brent you wrote about governments. The forum of governance that has evolved or imposed on rock since saddam was overthrown, is working. Do you see it working. The iraqis have to come up with something else. To the United States have to help her not come up with something else. Great question. First, highlight the subtitle of the book, what really causes instability in the middle east. My simple answered after spending two years with Michael Rubin is is Michael Rubin. [laughter]. Is he joke. [laughter]. To question on rock, but obviously for this latest episode, if you see what has or havent in the last week, and then what was happening just a few months before that. And people in the streets of baghdad and major city in iraq, questioning the very cold water thats in iraq. In posting testing corruption for services and a bunch of things that quite frankly like we do would we would around the region and quite regularly, other sorts of things that impact every country in the middle east. It sort of is crushing the demographic social economic pressures and inside of a wreck to answered your question quite clearly despite multiple elections the Current System of governments has brought, hoping the people. In one of the points of this book is some new. And go back to the Human Development report 16 to 17 years ago, and structural factors that contribute to set stability are quite weak and is those 15 or 16 or 17 years and some they got weaker. I think place quite clearly, i took about michael but we do have our differences. In favor of the iraq war, i was at. He is because they are often nuclear deal. One thing we agreed upon is to d deeper and what we wanted to do this book a chapter on governments, they took a bit about rock. But none of as National Government. The technet is experimenting governments that actually emerged. On the Islamic State. I its been a couple pages on and shows you that responsive governance and discontent with the governments not responding class seats for the source of instability that we saw on happen in iraq on the previous Prime Minister the groups the Islamic State exploited i think we should have learned by now, many years after iraq war is that the United States have the chapters that is important factor these fundamental Building Blocks for stability in our analysis. As we see today, the takes on what were going to do next and cycle isolation which is quite dangerous. Isis with a new phenomenon. And there has been failure of the governance until your leaders the middle east for a long time. So why this moment, did a group like isis have an opportunity to rise and at such a profound impact. Multiplicity factor, some of it is tied to this transitional generation. You just simply have a youth crunching. If the government in places like iraq are responding to it people will rise up in various different forms. Is the isis model which again was shortlived and i dont think has much legitimacy in the long around. This created though in response to an ineffective government. On Saddam Hussein, it was a dictatorship. There wasnt as much open space for people to produce change. And i think the theory that was behind the rock worked was that in 2003, and we do want to go back to debate that let the theory behind it was flawed and that simply leap top of the and eliminate or decapitate the top, then somehow freedom will spread and we know that didnt happen. I think wildly accelerated in the Islamic State in particular is that you have multiple fights going on inside rock. Civil war first. A system of government simply was not responding. Those conditions are still there. Iraqis are still looking at the National Government for the caretaker government. I would challenge the notion that wasnt all that new because we go back in history and theres any number of millennials mother was a seizure of the grand mosque 19799 want to go back to centuries before that before that it suzanne. I do want to draw out from what brian is talking about is any numbers of issues on governance, beyond simply this, monarchy replug first this monarchy. But what does this mean for the nature of america. Diplomacy, in many ways limiting ourselves to interactions with representatives of government who are on siege. Are we missing the broader picture both in terms of diplomacy and intelligence would it comes to middle east. What is the remedy to that. The United States, has to deal with the government. To some extent. To some extent we do. For example, how much time do temperaments spend outside the walls of embassies. First this talking and interacting a local market. We dont bring in u. S. Policy is it too much but one of the aftermaths of benghazi putting the root of that rises hillside which is the lockdown for which the americans find themselves any go to beirut, u. S. Embassy in beirut, is basically leaving on security parameters that they did on the civil war. The parameters. I think for u. S. Policy in the middle east, quite likely a thing of a 40 year period that began with the events in 19799. The islamic evolution. Invasion of afghanistan, and other than that led to the u. S. Having is engagement primarily be the focus on what her military does. Look at where we are today. Discussing and worrying about what the next move is. Means for the michael makes which is tactical but important. His diplomatic. They are our eyes and ears for understanding societal trends. Last. Is that opens up questions of whether the United States should actually be spending a lot of money in countries that simply lack the capacity to do this. Maybe theres a strategy for thinking more modestly. With the relative progress in place like tunisia for example. Million dollars but indonesia may ultimately be a lot better than other parts of the middle east. We dont even have a discussion because we are reacting to certain mostly military most and not thinking about hadley new portfolio. I do want to followup on that. But i want to bring darren into the conversation. His religious more important today than it was before. Yes. One of the fundamental fundamental misconceptions about terms of religion is that we tend to assume that this has been the case all of the time. About 40 or 50 years ago, see the dominance of government and ideology now parties and groups, many of the more existent but much slower and much less influential in terms of affecting other groups in society. Or have governments will acting in terms of Foreign Policy or domestic policy. But over the course of the last 40 to 50 years, things started to change dramatically i think. Iran revolution was a big turning. More importantly, ideologists have failed. Trust middle east and throughout 1960s and 70s or 80s. Has failed his leadership mean. The fundamental issues will political and economic and they failed to deliver on their promises and on what people will expecting. And this is what participated the rising of these religious groups. Later on for violent extremist groups throughout the region. The key problems here is their lives not just in terms of their own. There rise within the borders. In 2011 and 2012, 30 to 40 percent of the vote but more importantly, they were able to dictate the parameters of the discussion in terms of the policy issues that will ongoing. The rise influence secular groups. Non religious Political Group so much so that they themselves need to bring in religion to their own discussion. To their own sort of policies proposal so to speak. One good example is what is happening in turkey today. Akp is coming into power in 2002 and he is he massive politician. He is unsuccessful in terms of changing the political system in turkey in such a way that the secular parties are unable to determine the agenda. There unable to discuss issues in a way outside of the parameters set. One problem here is if you think about this in terms of religious competition, that means you or political activist, both religious and on, will try to. Her two of the demands. People walk more. Theyre curious. In the political basis. Anyone has not been uniformly successful. He was successful in growing the economy in the early years. But he is fun into more trouble now. In his around into political pushback. So is there, islam, do you see him using islam more a sneak Political Tool to advance his political career or do you think this is so indigenous to the people turkey and every politician going forward, it would have to encompass religious beliefs more into their plans. I cant speak for his personal beliefs. The unsorted might focus a sneak political scientist, what i can tell you is the religion is an important element. And we look at over time, it changes in terms of the intensity that he emphasizes until 2011 and 12 and 13, would the party was first established. The religion did not play a significant overall. One political prospect or receiving a sneak result of Corruption Scandal first in the later on other issues that have come up, losing elections to sum up these people in popularity and then he started actually using more religion partly because he was to bring in some of those elements especially among the kurdish voters in turkey and national boast. Depending on the time, his youth recourse. This is really important. This is for other policy issues two. Going back to an issue, ryan mentioned about another, i fully agree. Intonation. Its going to go much further compared to other parts of the world. With Foreign Policy. His newly democratized context. What is underlying overall support is these Political Groups. Economic and political issues. Once those issues are addressed first and foremost, we are most likely going to see a decrease in the support. News image want to and then i will ask. Streetsmart using the religion, you talk about mostly in the domestic context of turkey. That is spot on. People leaders. These religion and islam in their live. The mic i wanted to make, two boys. One is about power. Its not necessarily about the right interpretation of religion there is such a thing and then secondly in addition to the domestic use of religion, what i see in the middle east are now is multifaceted and multidimensional competition for power. In the use of islam by turkey, die first this saudi arabia which has its own sort of definition how it tries and uses islam and the birthplace of it. My main. Is he first flight. This is about power. Not ancient hatred. And los angeles interpretation of religion. It is about leaders trying to stay in power by appealing toward a also trying to compete with what they see as their adversaries with the competitors in the region the use of that is the most and are analyzed interesting aspect of it because because they were is it too many fights and all sorts of things. And i something and frankly the book doesnt cover itself but it is part of the thing is america wants a better policy and approach and you need to understand that this is in addition to sort of military moves and the use of terrorism and other things. A key part of the struggle. One of the things i actually want to ask about this is how rapidly things are changing. So if we look 40 years in the future you have a complete new set of majority population hasnt even been born yet. Is he major influence for religion going to be the mom or social media. Is going to be theological rulers for our leaders was going to be populist leaders and if so, how are traditional muslim scholars looking and you really think that the way in which people consume religious wind rapidly change but inside with the United States and even come up with that. Some of my research is actually trying to address this question pretty couple of years ago we started a foundation trying to look into how religious authorities is distributed across middle east among religious leaders primarily Muslim Leaders what we found is there a couple of major findings. One of them is, Political Groups dishonest actors actually have popularity. People do look up to them as religious figures. This is something we need to see in terms of social media or mops, i think that is a change precipitated by the 20th century, more than a century ago. Soul bit different and a salami. It. Market of religion. Very much like eroticism and christianity doesnt have essential authority. No hierarchy. Everyone can be a religious leader as long as somebody supports them. The group of collective class of islamic scholars, all of us millennium to the end of an the tenth century of into the turn of the 20th century islam. They were religious authority. As i started dying so to speak, theres a big void in terms of who was the authority. The rise of political early on in the muslim world. This is he process that is evolving with the rise of social media. I dont know whats going happen 40 years. Definitely not the mosque i dont think. Things are changing. Their tent changing fast and quick on this. Maybe a social hierarchy authority, things will be pretty sort of distributed. Is this on the fourth in the ability or not. It. It depends on what you mean by stability. I can turkey, it is the source of authority of stability. If you look the mother context, early 2000 or 1990s in turkey for example, it wouldbe a forceful ability stability. It was stirring up the opposition, it was pushing them into trying do you get more political based of representation or change. So totally depends on the context i think really dont think islam by itself is different than many other religions. Because of the actors, the overall circumstances in terms of rules is built in these countries. So depends on the context. In iraq for example would syria, instability and in say tunisia, and can be a four sport. If the seeming commitment for mercy and the words of russia issues in terms of russian democracy. sink now inside opera, this not being framed way the media is that would we look at the live since, he was in news the most prominent shared religious figure, eat is apparently extremely cognitive of what is popular and instead of simply leaving it, has to worry about following it. These because is it too far out any of his friday sermons and announcements, he risked being exposed. And if the young People Choose not to follow him and therefore we see a caution that really hasnt in there, if i will be lived on Saddam Hussein. Exactly thats the competition. These leaders not blind to what is going on around them. They know whats going on. They follow them. And they adjust their traditional religious authorities to that. They know whats going on. They will cater to that. Ultimately what religion does for them, they may be faithful believers and visually but religion is he tool. Its a political resource. You and make use of an going to make sure it helps you in terms of your power. I think this is really key. From time to time theyre talking about reforming islam. Design of any value. And i would throw this out to all of you. Is that some think that the west should be encouraging. What is it even mean. Its an organic process. My own view is we do say the west, im taking that and mostly government. Nothing necessarily we need to play a role that. I look back on certainly right now we have a president that when he ran his candidate, he is sort of an interpretation of islam which is quite dangerous but catering what i think is he political thing here. Deeply unhelpful. I think that would the u. S. Did things like avoid envoys, was irrelevant to may be slightly unhelpful as i dont think it should be u. S. Policy to encourage a reform of islam. This religion. Its going to strands of the more extremist more reformists and is organic. Im not a muslim, my friends who live here in america or youre up, have different ideas about their own religion. I would stay away from sort of that is a use of engagement would president obama spoke in cairo, theres idea of muslim engagement. A lot of my friends near world so little bit offensive especially those friends who are christian or not muslims but of tradition but not by faith. Wanted to be engaged of as the egyptians or something else. I think one of the issues where american policy is caught in the trap is due to our own navelgazing. One of the most interesting programs is in morocco. Women are educated alongside men. Morocco of course has theological and intellectual history that goes back well over a millennium. Except we do talk to american officials about what morocco is doing in the moroccan model, often times what you hear is that morocco is peripheral. It is irrelevant to the intellectually and theologically what is happening in morocco traditionally is much more significant than what is happening in saudi arabia. Saudi arabia had the advantage of having oil. We seem to be news doing something it arabias work for them. As we see from our managed. In them is parochial. I like to argue that and you may disagree with me a little bit but our own perspective from washington can actually get in the way. As we limit to what we do in terms of the sort of religious debate our first rule should be first do no harm. I dont disagree with you but i have a take i think. I most mentioned this myself i do think that islam is in great need of reform. I dont think theres any denying to that. The muslim world has great problem in terms of underdevelopment at this. In time. Im not staying that religion causes this but the case of violence throughout the muslim world. If you look at the muslim world today, i cant remember the figures that they are being killed today are being killed by other muslims. It is a very important statistic. We appreciate evasive underdevelopment in education. One great book that addresses these issues recently publishedd underdevelopment. Its an important but i think that looks into these issues very critically. Theres a great need for reform that is the mic. Religion would you like it or not is being used. Used to debt justify, ongoing trends and issues and problems in the middle east. Great problems. A great problem of gender equality. Just last year there was issues about equal inheritance. Not opposes legislation. This is the really important issue. Theres a great reform in islam. If they were muslims rather are still trying in my opinion are struggling trying to come to terms with it. The majority and this a big issue. Its a very deepseated issue that needs to be addressed but would it turns it is very difficult to come to terms that is part of the problem. That is something i try to emphasize with the fundamental parts of this. They have been able to change the mindset not only of those considered but those on the secular side. If you look at the issue of lgbt. Essentially though, the muslim world was much more aggressive on this. How many other issues, the diversity, i will argue that the muslim world is much more progressive essentially ten years ago. This is really the part of the issue. This is so important, not so much because there 30 or 40 percent for a popular vote. Because they were able to reshape the mindset of a lot of people in their society. Will make the same. I think. Mention lgbt. You correct me if im wrong. Went out and met officials and tough people but we went to universities and a member would we were in morocco. We asked to do certain home with students. And is one of these giveandtake noticeable, here from america. We might find this alarming or interesting that a lot of people are puzzled about american today. So the students asking whats going on was happening. Blessing this one question question. Whats the difference about your generation and your parents generation. And one woman head covering this his and since some of us are lgbt and we talk about it openly. And then they debated probably ten or 15 minutes. Would they can bring someone home to the parents for example. And you pointed out in other countries like iraq, not necessarily the case, is to move. So again the Younger Generation is starting to shift back from the question we have had over 40 or 50 years, let the outlier of the signifier of a continuing trend. Sent about an individual loophole but a Public Policy loophole. I think there is much more tolerance to about many of these issues that is right now. How many muslim areas have a death penalty. These are important issues. Could you build a mock loss in saudi arabia. Yes went out. But what about the rest of the country. I think there is a big problem. So this is happening organically or is there a role for government leaders, and his reform, he say reformulated, how does this come about. It is a taboo subject. In several countries, those people in individuals whether they are scholars or just prominent figures who wanted to debate and discussion about reform. They have been essentially captivated. Some of them for penalized for the reasons. It is a pushback from government officials in terms of their critical stance. This is what they understand from introducing debate about islam. Cling fundamental issues again, going back to social economic development, and good Education Systems where you are able to introduce Critical Thinking analytical thinking, you improve the quality in the country. Social economic still for an economic development, wellbeing of people in these countries. Think tank. That during the bush ministration, think about 2002, there is a case of the egyptian american sociologist who went to prison, in part for what he was talking about in terms of reform. In addition ministration held up Something Like hundred 20 million and to go further back in the reagan administration, going to the issue of abrogation in islam. There is a student scholar and forgetting his name. Talk about how it reform shouldnt include reverse aggravation. He would support by the merry regime. The mic of this is, while the United States, and separation of church and state does not mean that a wish and ignore the religion and other countries in order to create some sort of stage so the people are being most bold, on the course of reform dont end up in prison or worse. That is an important. Listening and understanding. The tragedy that investor statement was killed and one gauzy. In powerful is an element in our military to understand with the social dynamic is important. Keeping this issue of democracy of governments and freedom. The is policy is really important and obviously its been downgraded on President Trump. I would submit that is a preexisting condition and actually started that process of not having as much sort of focus in terms of what our diplomats do, and started into the obama administration. We wanted to pull back and define undistorted of debate about them a democracy and equated with interference of russia with our own economy. You think democracy is something United States should still do. I actually think that what michael was staying, if somebody is in prison whether its in saudi arabia or the partners, wayne Teresa Wiseman we need to make it part of the conversation be serious about it. Is he human rights issue. This not necessarily promotion of democracy. It. Would creating a safe space. This main. If you dont this winds evolve from the top down because of you do that while maintaining your position as an absolute monarchy and no gift organic space for people to debate religion or other issues likely to fail. The third. Is he simple one. No do harm. More sexually one of the worst things in unnecessary wars and actually enhance the hardliners and sort of extremist there. If enough that. Its what we have to have a new style of engagement. As i was staying earlier, try to learn the lessons from last four years. Especially the last 15 years or so and then talk about what sort of the right loophole of engagement. Mostly in the political environment and understanding what is happening. Im going to add to what you just said. Ill contradict you later. [laughter]. Becomes reform, often times would it comes to reform we talk about it is to apples to oranges. Saudi arabia for example, was an absolute monetary, not a democracy. Sometimes it seems the conversations of congress have a trump. In usa ideas and so forth with regards of what is reform first this what is understood by people in the region are two different things. The class occurs between those two different definitions, make things worse. It. Im going to ask one more question. So in terms of what role or can the United States play, things very important to understand that any intervention, i think should be created by but i think the way they are created is very important because anti western is him is so much ingrained in political islam. Or fundamentalist part even, among secular news. Any kind of intervention by the u. S. , by your opinion and European Countries is going to be as problematic. And that is why you know, those kind of interventions in terms of creating this issues is really very carefully because would undermined. It went basically make the issue they are talking about where that person decided to say for from that. On is going to be what happens in the case of arrondissement around into say it, will not touching someone, not supporting someone it is sort of damned if you do damned if you dont and so shall we use our ability to compel government not to arrest people. Not necessarily slam them but theyre going to be slimed matter what to do. Im just staying i think should be done in a way for someone to undermine them. They use in acts instead of a scalpel. Thats the problem. Im going to ask him a question. The whole chapter in this book on the military. I actually found it very interesting. Any. That was made is that the military region of attempted 793 crew since 1932 and succeeded in 39 of them. The mic being that the militaries are often enforced for instability not stability. And its also humorous the mic that by these militaries suffer for lack of training, lack of equipment, and United States have its been decades training, served scores for did in turkey for egypt however, and sold billions of dollars worth of weapons to a lot of these countries. Was that for not anchoring, and he states many of these militaries are on resourced. Seems like all we do its been military money. Consider addressing the military in 2014, we invested 25 billion in that. And of course we also invented stand out quite dealing afghanistan as well. No chapter was actually fascinating so glad you highlighted it. Couple things that come into play is one of the reasons why perhaps, destabilizing in their own country military should have a big . Over them. They seldom professed that they say what theyre going to do. Our that is cultural differences. So would it chargers is in basic training breakdown new recruit, is to make them better soldiers. Likewise, and naming what chief is breaking down someone but if honor is grabbed up and how you are precedent rather than what you do, this can have an implication how your ability to actually correct mistakes pretty putting that hillside, and what what brian was talking about rightly so, and having diplomats mean the front and center, and you look at a country like pakistan, in 2007 you have the commitment which is he bipartisan approach to state law, the face of american diplomacy should be military or the cia even though thats what its been in decades affect sense of the 7 billion a package actually made anti american is worse because the military was about do you get cut off from this rainy train, started through the rumor mill that this much money was meant to christianize accidents. It is also an insult. One of the issues that i would say we have to deal with acrosstheboard as we try do you get diplomats front and center, doesnt make sense to restore the state department say thats going to solve the problem. One comes to the military in egypt and pakistan, i think there was what i call a cycle of extortion. In which we give money in order to have a local military fight islamic news insurgent. But at some. The idea that if we defeat the insurgents, and we are never going to be able to have the money. We do look at it just in news and the Islamic State in northern china for example, which is it, because they dont want to or because their incompetent tent. Its one of the other. Then would it comes into the military in general, has brought just the goal issue, would we were in egypt together, you can argue perhaps cut them slack for making some of the corrections which he need it to make economically 50 years overdue. Military is coming from own unique interests. Repeating all the mistakes they made in the previous 50 years. Which means what they are doing is that theyre refusing to crackdown on human rights rather than improving. I agree, i want to supplement to that. The last 15 years of the u. S. Policy, we really need a strategic questioning. Use this is he tool of engagement with the societies. It has not succeeded in places like egypt which we have talked about before. Internally again balance of power and freedom in this corrosive and doesnt lead our and reinforces what is essentially still the bad part of the system. Again, its not sustainable in the wrong one let the Bigger Picture as you look across region especially the hundreds of billions that weve either sold or delivered to all states and others, serious questioning. In essence, would i look at it, there is a dangerous and does some functional dependency on the u. S. Military approach. Look at it today, just this past week. A lot of these militaries in the region themselves, cant defend themselves pretty look what happened in september. In saudi. How did the hal did that happen. If we had sent them sort of defensive, and this may. You sit here in washington. Theres episodic and largely technical and emotional debate. I think in some ways, they support it right. Its a reflection of a lot of americans. What the heck. But its often not strategic. Its also assumed. That this sort of tool persistence sales, if we cut it off, then we have fed them the riot act and thats it. And i actually think we need to sort of have someone of a payback on the stool emphasized the other aspects. What weve done with all of these has not produced the stability in the region and in saudi outrage it is self. Okay does anyone have any questions. In association with the u. S. Army. Any question about the area israeli conflict. I think in the 90s there was a belief to all rose to the summing the arabi conflict. Do you see the realignment especially now between israel and some of the sunni arab states. In the middle east and what you see as the continued importance for regional stability of that conflict today. Sooner what i would answers very briefly as that the excitement remains. So even if government and the diplomat posture by many of the gulf, have altered. That doesnt necessarily trickle down to the very population in egypt and saudi arabia support. What i would say for example diluted help we went to mohammed to the fifth anniversary. Whenever i travel with brian or independently, and try to do round tables at universities because they have much less of a filter in diplomats and embassies do. No one is doing something at the university of cool, one of the things that was strange was in a threehour session, no one brought the separated people up saudi arabia quite a bit. What i would argue was the problems are limit so great throughout the region that people are focusing on their own immediate problems. Now it is a main that they have a conflict it is time for that i would say theres a greater and broader perspective throughout the region and perhaps traditionally american dimple has had pretty. Was a theres a shift. Been on the realignment. Isolate in the 1990s live there in the region. There is a shift that is not as high priority. But elsie realignment in that. I dont see in essence, mini golf official say that we have this relationship that isnt mostly an intel and concerned about iran. Not going to come out publicly so long as theres a sense of injustice. The since theres not a sustainable just resolution to the israeli conflict which i would add, i dont see the pathways there at all. If you look at some of the reactions to it, and President Trump news initiative, whether moving embassy to jerusalem part one heights, is muted in the streets but an official sort of saudi arabia and other countries had conferences that can demonstrate. And they should communicate. This holy god. My main. Is that i elsie realignment meeting relations between a lot of these countries. And making out that went out any sort of sense of a pathway to resolving the conflict between palestinians. Is there anyone else. My name is bill chip. Ive read little bit about the middle east but not as much as any of you have. I thought that we do talk about the middle east in your book, im not sure how far east and west you go i think your discussion today is mostly from based on that little area from lebanon to iran. Is it right. With different authors in bringing different examples that we cover from a rock a little bit of pakistan and check on education by muslim faith and at university of michiganocused heavily. One click, and then a question. Please say that while we may be here and looking at all of these problems in this religious issues, we have to remember that in many cases religion has been adopted a sneak tool to gain power. Not the other way around. My comment is maybe, the mix exception to that is think religion is whats striving people are people are trying to take over the country. Purely for religious reasons. Thats a, it printed the question is the area focus on, there are two ancient historic divides. Theres the religious divide between the sunnis initiates, theres the ethnic divide between the persian and arabs. I think im not wrong that will between more people die in the war between iraq and iran in a died in any other conflict all put together in the last, 40 years. My question to you is, in the long term, how do you see, i think we see a little bit of the now right. Because the brent, people in the long term, do you see those two divides, which do you see is ultimately crating more stability or overcoming the other. First of all, just one small factoid. Historically is been considered the police was originally geographic starting in the 1920s and 30s and is shifted to the mic of this is, egypt on over to morocco was not always considered arab. Now put that hillside, then the factoid, the middle east, you are absolutely right in terms of the sheer scale of the roar. If we want to talk put in syria however, may have surpassed of the year on it for thinsulate the great lakes region. The reason why he seems to be so tendentious right now the middle east, is only ten or 15 percent of the muslim world may be shiite but if you draw a circle around the Arabian Peninsula and iran, it is about a 50 pair 50 parody which his wife ever says the beginning of the century, theres been a sense that absolutely every things in place. But in conclusion what i would argue, is that people who are hellbent on having a conflict, will always come up for an excuse to have one. They could be political, religious maybe some other aspect. What i wanted to with this and the reason you are doing everything. We will trying to come up with a Political Science theory will onesizefitsall. In this case, historian by training, that means i get paid for the past. I get right that right about half the time. The mic of this is that i sadly dont. [laughter]. I think its interesting question. I think, the my mind went to we do raise. To the question carol asked me about iraq which is what is going on inside there. I think theres a struggle. I dont know whether those things will be resolved. This interface is from the bottom up. In the struggle that is happening and i think accelerating. I think the people thought was over to threes years after the arab arising has brought over. My guess another wearing a new decade, is that that is actually going to accelerate we do look at those structural just your basic metrics of where the societies are going. There will be some change. The question is whether that change is faster slow and whether it moves in the right direction however you define network try to go back thousand years. I think those internal tensions and society, and ethical weve seen not your particular, this rise of nationalism throughout Key Countries in the region, is going to be whether the first immediate remain aware that impacts other sort of arena so we have talked about it. But people are going to look at the approximate which is their lives, who is running them and weather those who are ruling them are doing them justly and with a sense of effectiveness. Thats why think it will be a big part of it the decade. I its been a lot of time in the middle east in the past 20 so years. I guess im wondering regarding the english and the french, you just mentioned nationalism. Things sound like it then heard of thing until recently. You actually see the nations states recombining, thanks a biden but correct really is three places. Nobody wants to give up their boundaries. He is one of the issues that the different authenticity news like i say, they never got a from his skin a stand. None of the four countries want to give up was going on with turkey. Turkey and syria. I guess you see a day in the cornish exist. The things happen that the car boundaries is shifted to more natural coherent authenticity. Generally speaking, of course you are right we do look at a map and you see a straight line, thats an artificial order does mean is an arbitrary country. So most people in the middle east live traditionally along with post along rivers. So we do consider egypt and 90 plus percent of the population leaving on the nile, visit necessarily matter we draw the borders. Egypt has a sense of being egypt. If i have to go back through any of these countries, iraq only became independent i think in 1932, back in the 13th centur century, people talk about the concept of iraq. And talk about the of lebanon or syria. On before he formally became independent so it comes to the artificiality of the state, who stated more most artificial states and course jordan, cutter, timorous, and quite. But that many of the others we see this how they retroactively send back that they have some basis in legitimacy that really isnt going to change much. The kurds are the largest people who have been if you will, dispossessed. Number four countries because of world war i, because of course the treaty in the 17th century is what created the iraniraq border of the problem with the kurds is are you have one card, or could you have four. In this notion it will have one, we have two remaining is, one of which is called moto that, we have two of money is, one is kosovo and they went 22 arab states, this are you can see some border adjustments yes. But i dont think you are going to see wholesale revision of the maps of the middle east and somehow illegitimate because i think it is a loss list illegitimate and sometimes, the grievance industry would have success. Tonight just add a little. To that. We already staying some adjustment of orders whether it is the turks coming over the border into syria, claiming some land. We have the iranian and the russians play a huge role. Who knows what is going to happen. They do not have all of the country. I just finished pretty the israelis, have now mayday formal claim to the golan. Though we see already a change. Theres a difference between wholesale and im also not willing to argue we do bad whats fundamentally an unresolved border issue, thats separate from existing recognized borders and would it comes to turkey, i think that this is a major challenge which is erawan is causing to the world. Would we look at the fact that cyprus remains occupied ever since 19794, would we look at and droplets, in northern syria, turkish civilian post offices, i would worry great deal about everyone and whether the world will be in a position to sort of respond that. Whatever his ambition is. But we have an expert heres all different to that. Through problem is i think that International Conflict has changed. It is moved on from what it was and 60 to 79 years ago in terms of that legitimacy of changing borders right. I am margin this, by choice the sermon people want to leave and others, agree to it. Im not sure what will happen in northern syria. Turkey is expanding. I think there are some branches the faculties that are being opened. Will the world ever see that turkish occupation. By default right now, its occupation. My definition. But im not sure how far he wants to go with that. It may depend on whether he can strike an agreement with russia in terms of what kind of autonomy will turkey get there. It might threaten the turkish sort to speak, it remains to be seen. The way it goes, i dont think there will be a lot of collision. To this. Nothing is really 40 important. You made. I think the issue is key weather or what is happening de facto. Where are the formal lines are. Women talking all about yemen. And but to me, the really interesting discussion about what is happening in yemen, whether they can be a resolution to the conflict, if you see the politicized part of it, what was yemen before this conflict doesnt hang together pritikin to try to dress asunder the governments chapter. Then again, if we want to be serious about the forms and using the tools, understanding how different groups have defined sort of their relationship to the Central Government or account regions are doing. Joe biden was try to do this ten or 15 years ago when he had the biden plan for iraq. Which again a lot of this just doesnt translate well back to her own politics has brought that meaningful. Its gotta be organic and theres going to make that this notion that was brought about sykes picot and the colonial powers, guesstimate mistakes think it wouldbe a best day to sort of go back to that model and tried to redefine borders. Others try to say about islam and reform who is organic. We kind of have to watch and see. I develops in a place like yemen was try do you get at is we really have to understand with more texture. Which of what we try to do in the book. One of the factors of governance and political legitimacy. And they themselves can create these new arrangements. And of course nationalism. Some of these are artificial states. Hi, thank you so much for these remarks. Its been wonderful. You covered a lot of topics in a very short period of time. Would think mentioned very briefly on social media. The influence technology and diplomacy. Influencing conflicts. We saw through both revolutions and surviving military crews, one way or another and in turkey, the influence they made it response, to touch upon digital book responsiveness and how that may contribute to diplomacy raven intensifying complex. Try to relate this to book. Link twitter and facebook revolution, as they were called, in 2011, and produce enormous capacity to organize against something, to be against something. To turn things down. And i the dynamic and social media here. It is largely used a sneak tool sort of tractor and disagree with a lot of people. Would the son all of that useful im talking just in these countries will get to the u. S. Diplomacy question printed and has brought yet, in a test case or case study, ability consensus and Building Political movements. You look at our current president , uses his full power very effectively to divide very effectively. Gay people off balance. Separate years ago, these tools that they developed for use to expand freedom. To tear down authoritarian rules and things of that. Now in this dangerous moment in recent china and with saudi arabia, and other countries that arent democracies. They are using these tech tools to reimpose control. Very repressive ways. They debate. I dont see right now, the u. S. Playing any meaningful serious role in all of this including in the tech case of a around. And it michael i hope you disagree with me on this. I care so much that is wrong about the non policy of donald trump and who knows what he just said 11 00 oclock. And at the top but would the protest started again. Enron early last year, i think only really saw was rhetorical approach of this administration and talking about the freedom of iranian people but i didnt see any any and maybe there will different groups but no serious moves to talk about how we help radiance help themselves. To protect themselves and have sort of vpn and others. You are probably more adaptive and understanding the technology here a few space to communicate with each other. Those who are in favor of that. Again talking about military regime change. Tools and engagement with society. I dont even talk about that now because of the nature of a better government is and then a debate. Because you can even praise it. So i think we moved to a more functional state, less dysfunctional here at home it wouldbe interesting to talk about how we can use these tools to engage retrospectives of society. Back to michaels. That the feminine affinity behind falls. Guess what, you must really dont have to be behind falls. I can go connect with the money of this panel. Conceivably in enron or saudi arabia or palestine. In of the conversation but it will see those tools using those tools and diplomacy very well right now. It. My personal would it comes to american of the diamond model, and every strategy should have a diplomatic military and economic component and the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. And i say traditionally havent dont bend the live in printed in the basis of our information strategy such as it is, plans to be truthful. And therefore through truth, drawback is that truth is determining is low at which. After three or four gays on the new cycle is moved on. Then talk to people involved in information strategies would the u. S. Government were seeing there will so afraid of doing anything wrong that they ended up doing nothing right. Especially the military but of this. And that said, one of the things of the basis of our insurgents strategies and problem areas is would i surmise the iranian strategy have traditionally been the first step is to six. In one case in 2007, one of the newspapers i think ir actually went by and said that the goal of the americans is to convert afghanistan christianity in greenville it was you and okay, absolute lenses. But in their some contractor in indiana the biblical sanitation it is picked up in the little local media and the next thing you know is oliver. So the poor illiterate farmer but they were his propaganda is enough do you get in the way of our strategy. No going more towards what brian said i conversation early on in the Trump Administration was someone who was a very high level official. Basically said, look middle east would charge them, including principles and crime listeners of foreign listeners and so forth, a music less facts or is turkey, using signals for one im using caliber. And were still picking up the phone and calling people, is like dealing with the 1020th Century Solutions to 21st century problem. So that ultimately goes into the diplomacy cracks which i think is hard to catch printed. This is been a very good discussion and through that we could go on from probably another hour but we have to leave so will your speakers and thanks you all. Thank you for coming. [applause]. [applause]. This weekend book tv features three new nonfiction books. Today at 7 00 p. M. Eastern, National Constitution president and ceo jeffrey rosen, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader ginsburg, talk about his new book in conversations with arby g. Her live and career. We will married if my motherinlaw news home. And she before our ceremony told me a secret about a marriage. And if not sometimes to be it helps sometimes sometimes to be a little deaf. [laughter]. The side guys have followed, every workplace. [laughter]. And even in my current job. [laughter]. Ninetythree, entertainment editor jerome hudson, argues that News Coverage in the Mainstream Media, benefits the political left. In his new book, and he thinks he dont want you to know. I think generally, he goes back to the distress that you see in survey after survey, the market people dont trust that the Mainstream Media is telling them, the truth and the whole truth. So i think that it actually has led to the rise of new media. In on sunday and 9 00 p. M. Eastern on afterwards. New York Times Magazine contributor discusses her book boys and. Porn has become the de facto section educator for a generation of young people. Because we dont talk to them. Well talk to them as parents or in school. So curiosity about is natural. For that matter, mass duration is natural and important. But what is different for this generation is that with the rise of internet and smart phone and the dropping of tape on four sites, we cant get anything they want. A lot of things nobody wants. The fingertips on the phones. If. Was put to beat this every weekend on cspan2. No on book, we want to introduce you to another his