Will play in the world. [applause] first we will have to use our imagination a little bit because there is no fireplace here but we are thinking it is a fireside chat and im so grateful to have this opportunity today. Doctor kissinger and i met several years ago now i think, right, hes been a key person comcan go to for advice about bh professional and career things as well as geopolitical events. Very few friends can do both, but doctor kissinger really needs no introduction. As all of you know, hes one of the worlds most renowned geopolitical practitioners as well as thinkers and he did all that well before ai came into being. He is that rare combination also is a true intellect and i really admire him for taking on something relatively new like ai after the height of his career. Ai is pretty daunting as someone also relatively new to it, doctor kissinger decided he wanted to do a deep dive in and about the technology and the indications of Artificial Intelligence for our political systems and for geopolitics with large. As many of you know hes written two articles both published in the atlantic, 2018 and 2019. I would encourage you all to read both of them. He also wrote a book in 2014 perceiving that called world order [inaudible] one of the last chapters of the book talks about the implications of technology. It has a really interesting insight. He talks about the ordering system sort of for the world is uttering the age of enlightenment, it was reasoned and during the medieval period it was religion. His era is technology and science that helps us sort out these events and that is a useful way to talk about what we are going to talk about here. He calls them actually the governing concept age [inaudible] articles that are relevant to the commission as well and i will draw out some of these and use them as question to start out with. First he described as inherently unstable. The systems were constantly in flux as they require and analyze the data. For those of you in the audience that our National Security professionals, stability is a key concept that we like to actually have in the system so there is an inherent contradiction in the stability of ai and National Security concept and thats something i would like doctor kissinger to talk about a little bit. But even preceding the, we are here ultimately as we talk about this competition and the attention the interim report talks about because ultimately this is a contest between two political systems and we shouldnt forget that essentially. Its fundamentally between the two systems and the impact of Artificial Intelligence will have on the system. Its about whether or not Artificial Intelligence will have an advantage over the countries like ours. [inaudible] on the Advisory Board to create and calibrate what im saying let me give you a few words about how i got into this field. I became a great friend of eric schmidt who is today one of my best friends. He invited me to the springs and before that showed the sum of the extraordinary achievements. I had barely met him before that and i begin my speech by saying im tremendously impressed by what ive seen but i want you all to understand i consider google a threat to civilization and i understand it. [laughter] this was the beginning. Of our friendship. [laughter]. And that he was designing a computer and he was confident he could design it so that it would be the champions. And it has 180 pieces and that the game is to constrict the ability of the opponent in the video. But when you put your third piece down it is lined up, you dont know how it will develop and it takes a long time to develop and it is the creative game. So i went up afterwords and said how long will it be that they will achieve intellectual dominance cracks and he said he was working on it. [laughter] so over the years and then to introduce me to Artificial Intelligence. And i am concerned that historical and philosophical and strategic aspect. I think i am convinced Artificial Intelligence is going to bring a change of consciousness. And for what it imposes. And those who say in the audience i have written to and and to say when the applications. And the implications. I dont challenge the applications. And frankly they dont do enough and if you know something about the field and of mankind is surrounded. And sometimes it cannot explain and what happens. And why it happens. This is why i am here and in that context that you can test what i am saying. But i have put aside other work for the last three years to educate myself because is the next big thing for mankind. I think that the technicians are too modest in the sense that they dont ask enough of what it means i would say the same for strategies. The nature of strategy and warfare. And several of you can better than i. And it is understood what they will do. It is a new technology that it must bring a change in the philosophical perception of the world. And the enlightenment looking at it on a mathematical basis. And history fundamentally but the idea that you can explore reality and partnership of what is out there and with those algorithms. But then when people start thinking about it. That will fundamentally affect human perception. Then as it spreads from the world. And are you optimistic with democracy cracks and that explanatory power. And that ai not necessarily there is an interesting point you make and some of your articles how ai by its very nature will change with cognition and reasoning because it will not be the experiences but ai will get their first. Ai has consequences. Now and my optimistic that the future of democracy itself putting ai aside. And that for society to be created it has to have a vision of the future. And to do it. And that political contest meant to get a view of their future. And then to break down operating like the house of representatives. It is part of a system of checks and balances. In the quiet consensus in its operation. But ai detects a new level of reality. For those of you who work on it it is the inevitable future. And when we think the Defense Department and increasingly ai will help shape them with these different areas and applications but the key problem that we face and then with Nuclear Weapons without triggering a preemptive strike. And then to become more esoteric. And landbased missiles. In that it makes no potential and when that history of that. About that triggerhappy going from level four from level three. But and then you could see that that it was not yet threatening. And much of what goes on with ai that we believe arms control is an important aspect. And then it is infinitely more important. And then has that capability and then to imagine that capability. With tremendous discrimination. That the enemy may not know where it came from. And then to know about arms control. With that concept of arms control. So what we have taken as that way of thinking. So are there situations that on the white house that are there situations to trust the ai algorithm with the National Security and at ai algorithm helping National Security decisionmakers . It is a standard of the ai algorithms as part of that decisionmaking process. And that decisionmakers then to think through the limits of it. And then they have to test themselves with wargames and actual situations to make sure what degree of reliability of the algorithms. And also think through the consequences. So when i talk about these things talking about the outbreak of world war i because and not one of the leaders who had had any conception none act in such scope but they didnt know how to turn it off. At civilization process started and ending with the german attack which neither of which had anything to do but that was a larger consequence and it was a quick victory that could only be achieved in northern france. So that germany and france are not that involved in the outcome. The only way with the advantage of time over the mobilization matter how it started and it was a masterpiece of planning. One of the interesting things as they had to knock out the german cadillac so when the attack developed then the germans lost their nerve as exactly what they wouldve stopped while those on both sides that if you dont see through the implications of the technology. And with that emotional capacity to handle the predictable consequences. And how you conduct diplomacy so you really dont know what the other side is thinking and its not even clear how you can reassure somebody if you wanted to. Thats very important. So as you develop weapons of great capacity and discrimination and so had you commit those weapons to assign certain tasks of how you could modify that. With these questions have to be answered. Thats why i thank you are only in the foothills of the real issues you will be facing if you go down there. I am not arguing against ai. It will exist. Before i open to the audience because you are a geopolitical thinker talking about diplomacy and restraint talk about the evolution of the us china but russia relationship in brief and then i will open it up to the audience but this is an opportunity to have him here and not ask a question that is more broader. You are getting set to go to china talking about your goals for that trip. I look at this primarily as a strategic issue that is the impact of societies over an extended period of time. With those huge capabilities. So with some military conflict. And then to survive but then the key question is and with that policy but the confrontation point of view. My preference looking at a strategic issue and then to try to shape the environment and have a relative advantage but on the other hand to move towards the position. So on the other side nothing about confrontational because it is dead anyway. And that element of cooperation into these relationships. And then to serve on the bureau and then youll see on the one hand they have arguments leading to its involvement but on the other theres always somebody arguing that they dont ever go all out so that we could match them. So i favor a strategy of complexity. I would like containment to evolve out of diplomacy that doesnt put into confrontational side. We have to understand what you are trying to avoid. The system. When you got on the road to india before you got very far you would need a lot of resistance organized by the british even though it wasnt proclaimed that nobody ever quite made it. That is what we have to develop at least in some parts of the world. I dont address that in quite the same category. It is a country with Nuclear Weapons and by sitting there in the middle of eurasia it guarantees by its existence the absence of the yugoslavia conflict in the middle of central asia where it would draw in the greek and turkish and all the other empires so what i think we need is a way of thinking about the world and that category the basic principle has to be the cannot tolerate the hegemony of any person for our survival. We cannot tolerate the hegemony of any country over your asi eurasia. But how to get there would require flexible thinking and Flexible Technology that we have ever been faced with in that situation. If you go to most universities, you will find a huge majority of maybe im wrong. Some of your ideas can find a way to work its way into the commission report. I will open it up now to questions in the audience. Its hard to see there is a glare. Thank you, doctor kissinger for talking to us today. I am a practitioner resident at the georgetown university. I wondered if you could expand on your thoughts about the Emotional Intelligence quotient and how you take into account things like empathy. When the internet was expanding, a lot of critics of the new technologies that would make humans less personal into the champions said it would free up the mind for vigorous thoughts and more profound thinking and thats true in some sense but its also being used by small minded people to spread their negativity and thinking so i wonder how you square in tension intention. I dont know. [laughter] i dont know the answer to this question because youve defined the problem that we must deal with. When the enlightenment came along there were a lot of leftist philosophers because out of the religiousthere was a lot of reflection about the nature of the universe and if you studied this you would find a lot of philosophers with very profound insight on the nature of the universe and whether it was an object of reality or whether you could express it in mathematical equations. But in the present period, philosophy and reflection is not as major as they turn. We put our technology to get good talent in the technical field and for the first time we are changing events happening [inaudible] sooner or later it will come. Im sort of obsessed with the phenomenon of teaching chess to a computer that then learns a form of chess that no human being in all of history could have developed against which a even in the most advanced computerbased of previous intelligence is in a way defenseless so what does that mean that you are teaching somebody that they set out to do that entirely different, i dont know the answer to this. Does anyone else know the answer . [laughter] if i knew the answer i would become very rich. [laughter] [inaudible] the other concern is we have to keep our minds open to being this problem and find people that are capable of strategy in relation to an everchanging world that never happened befo before. We have time for one final question before we wrap up. Theres a story o about the moon coming up over the horizon in a strategic alert with russia but there were cooler heads have decided that it wasnt an attack, it was something else. What you are trying to say is we need very elegant ai before we put it in control of the button class do you want to repeat the question fax essentially do we need a more elegant ai before we put it in control of the button. In one way or another, ai will be the philosophical challenge of the future because on the one hand you are in partnership with objects when you go to general intelligence. And in a deeper way the implications of several things [inaudible] self driving cars when they come to a stop light they offer a pathway that cars next to them start inching forward to get a jump on the others, they could also. Why, where did they learn it . And what else have they learned that they are not telling us . [laughter] on that note, time is up now. And how do they talk to each other. Thanks so much. [applause] we are going to take a ten minute break and then we will be meeting back here with commissioner clyburn who will look at ai and the workforce. Thank you very much