Welcome. My colleagues at the Federal Reserve and i are dedicated to serving the american people. We do this by steadfastly pursuing the goals Congress Gives us of stable prices and maximum employment committed to making the best decisions we can based on facts and objective analysis. Today we decided to lower Interest Rates as i will explain shortly we took the step to help us economy strong in the face of some notable developments to provide assurance against ongoing risk. The us economy has continued to perform well. We are entering the 11th year of economic expansion and the baseline outlook remains favorable. The economy grew at two. 5 percent base in the first half of the year. Household spending supported by a strong job market rising incomes and Rising Consumer confidence is a key driver for growth. In contrast Business Investment and exports have weakened with manufacturing output. The main reason is the trade policy developments those two sources of uncertainty we have been monitoring all year. Global Growth Outlook has weakened notably with europe and china. Additionally a number of geopolitical risks including brexit are under assault. Trade policy tensions have waxed and waned and elevated uncertainty. The business contacts around the country have been saying the trade policy has discouraged them the investment posted a modest decline the Second Quarter and they are pointing to other so it Household Spending to expect the economy to continue to expand. As seen from the fomc participants and to meet expectation from gdp growth is 2 percent this year and next before headed down to that value. The job market remains strongly on employment rate has job gains to remain solid in recent month months. The pace of job gains has eased this year but we expected some slowing after last year strong pace. Participation in the labor force by people in their prime working years is decreasing and wages have been rising for lower paying jobs and people who live and work in rural and middle income communities tell us the many who have struggled to find work are now getting opportunities to add new and better chapters to their lives. This underscores the importance of sustaining that expansion so the strong job market reaches those left behind. We expect the job market to remain strong. The projections of the Unemployment Rate is at 4 percent over the next several years. Inflation continues to run below the 2 percent objective over the 12 month total pce inflation was one. 4 percent and core inflation which excludes food and Energy Prices was one. 6 percent we still expect inflation to rise that median projection is one. 9 percent this year and 2 percent 2021 however inflation pressures clearly remain muted and indicators of expectations are at the lower end of those ranges and to be mindful it could lead to an unwelcome downward slide of expectations and overall we say we continue to see sustained expansion of Economic Activity strong labor Market Conditions and while this has been our outlook for quite some time the views of Interest Rates have changed significantly over the past year and as i mentioned weakness in Global Growth and trade policy have weighed on the onomy to pose ongoing risks these factors with muted inflation pressures have led to shift our reviews about approprie monery policy over time to a lower path from the fed funds rate this shift has supported the outlook this is the role to addressed Interest Rates to enhance a strong labor market and keep it near the 2 Percent Inflation objective. Two days decision to raise the fed fund rate at one. 7 percent one. 75 percent since the last meeting we see the resurgence of trade policy with additional tariffs the fed has no role in the formulation of trade policy but we take into account anything that could affect the economy relative to the economy the future course of Monetary Policy is how it evolves and what developments with the Economic Outlook in the risks to the outlook that is not on a preset course that is today. The baseline Economic Outlook remains pitive to show that participants only anticipate modest changes over the next couple of years. Of course those views are a forecast and not with the arrival of new information. Let me say a few words about Monetary Policy operations. Funding pressures and money markets were elevated with the Effective Fed Fund Rate rose up across the top range and while these issues are important for Market Participants they have no implication for the economy or Monetary Policy. This upward pressure emerged as funds flow to the treasury to meet Corporate Tax payments. To counter the pressures with repurchase obligations yesterday and again today these temporary operations we expect the fed food rate fed fund rate back into the target range in addition we made a technical adjustment setting at 20 basis points below and we also adjusted the rate on the repurchase facility five points below the target range we will continue to monitor market developments as necessary to foster trading in the fed funds market consistent with our decision we will over time provide a sufficient supply of reserves so that is not required. To summarize we are fully committed to have goals of maximum employment as they contemplate the future half of the fed funds rate to monitor the implications for Economic Outlook and act as appropriate to sustain with a strong labor market inflation and ill be happy to take your questions. With the associated press. When you cut rates in july you characterized it as a midcycle adjustment. Is that still your view of what is happening . As you can see from the policy statement we have the available Economic Outlook with moderate growth and a strong labor market and that view is consistent with those and many other forecasters. Fomc participants genuinely think these economic outcomes would be achieved with modest adjustments to the fed fund rat rate. The last press conference i pointed to in 1995 and 1998 had such an approach in those instances. As the statement highlights there are risks due to weak Global Growth and if the economy does turn down in the more extensive sequence of rate cuts is appropriate. But we would follow that path. In other words, we will continue to monitor these developments quote closely. Taking the statement i am wondering what message we should take is it safe to say fomc still has an easing bs . I dont think i bias it is a long time practice and we dont have that anymore. But i will respond to your question. We made one decision today to lower the fed funds rate we believe that action is appropriate to promote our objectives of course. We will be highly data dependent on the implications of information and i wou also say that we are not on a preset course. Thats how we look at it with Economic Data sometimes the path is clear and sometimes less so. So we will go carefully meeting byeeng and assess that appropriate stance of policy. Just to foowp you said favorable outlook is predicated on financial conditions and those are predicated on fed policy and in this case is further cuts. Wouldnt that suggest if you want those financial conditions you should be inclined . What we do Going Forward is on the flow of data and information. If you look at the things we monitor like Global Growth and trade development, Global Growth continues to weaken and it has since the last meeting and trade development and they had been quite volatile and that has been more heightened weve been watching it carefully and also the us data quite carefully to make an assessment as we go. From the wall street journal youre trying to speak for the committee when you do these press conferences but it is clearly divided at least about the outlook and the appropriate path some say you need to wait and see before acting aggressively and some think that by the time that happens you will need to do more aggressive action. Where do you stand on this . On the general point of diverse perspectives, you are right many times the direction it is clear its easy to reach anonymity it is time difficult judgment. I really do think its nothing but healthy. So i see a benefit. Bet your data is when you have the risk on the horizon and the market thinks it is materializing more than what you and your colleagues are projecting. What are your own views about the attention of Risk Management with Data Independence . I think the idea of trouble approaching on the horizon to steer away from that is good idea in history teaches us its better to be proactive to adjust policy if you can. To apply that principle in a particular situation is where the challenge comes. I told you where the bulk of the Committee Goes meeting by meeting and the main take away that it has shifted the policy stance to support Economic Activity as it feels it is appropriate. At the beginning of the year looking for rate increases and then we cut again. You have seen us being willing to move based on the evolving risk picture but that will continue to be data dependent thats for im and where the bulk of the committee is. Cnbc. What is your concern how the Federal Reserve operated through the liquidity markets . We talked to many traders it was known well in advance there were several reports pointing to september. You closed monday at the top of the fed funds rate and tuesday came along and it was not in operation until 9 00 oclock. So was the fed listening to the markets well ahead of time going back one year when there were blowouts in the overnight rate . Are you concerned . I doubt that anyone is closer to her has more invested to follow the behavior of these markets. Of course we were well aware of the tax payments and the large bond purchases and we were waiting for that. But we had us response stronger than what we expected. In a surprise that participants lot also. If you were writing about this if you weeks ago it was not a surprise but it was a stronger response than we expected. So no, i am not concerned to answer your question. I could go on how b are looking at that. We dont have any implications for the broader economy with the many markets and then to purchase treasuries we took appropriate actions to keep the fed funds rate add a target range and then to experience another pressure of the money markets. And we will not hesitate to use them. And earlier in the year and with the careful study to decide to announce to change Monetary Policy we have been monitoring that in a full decade that has worked well with our great decisions the main hallmark we keep the fed fund rates designed specifically is a Going Forward we will be monitoring those implications and assessing the question of when it will be appropriate with the organic growth of the Balance Sheet. Then we will be revisiting that at the next meeting. Did you underestimate the amount of reserves . We have always said the level is uncertain. That is something we have been very clear about. We have invested a lot of time or holders to assess we put it out there for public reaction. But there is real uncertainty and we do need to resume the organic growth of the Balance Sheet. That is a possibility again now. We look at this carefully and take it up at the next meeting. The financial times. That looking to try to antify trade uncertainty to suggest that could go to the Business Investment chancel one channel and growth. How much confidence do you have to estimate the real effects of trade uncertainty . If you have confidence it would seem to suggest more path than what you have chosen. So to provide a little context to let congress to research all the time is generally high quality not the official finding of the Federal Reserve board. By the way they put it out for public review you can see all of it in their work has been exposed to critique from all professionals. In this piece of work with trade policy uncertainty and certain tariffs it looks deeply at the data to address the effects and while i would say to directly answhe question it is a 22 trilliondollar economy and it is very challenging but this piece of Research Found significant effects consistent with Research Projects that has been undertaken and also that if you take a step back we feel trade and certainty has an effect with weak exports. Im with reuters. I was struck by the medium fed funds rate through 2020 and that in comparison with three very discrete groups of opinions where the fed funds rate is headed so is it fair to say those opinions are firm in their conviction . And that will take a Material Change in the outlook now . 2020 specifically . The fed funds rate is now seeing it move through 2020 suggest it is pretty well anchored right now. Honestly its hard to have that hardened expectations about reach policies one year from now. The closer you get to the current day the more confidence but knowing what the data will say or the political lettuce geopolitical events there is a lot of uncertainty around that in particular if you look at 2020 the use of those participants should give ascents how they think of the likely path of the economy and the appropriate path with the individual persons thinking. Thats a good thing to know to look at it as hardened views or a prediction. A number of arguments talk about cutting rates have any of those gotten weaker or changed . Look at the us economy. Generally it has performed as expected Consumer Spending at a healthy clip and exports have weakened further manufacturing pmi generally that is the same the Global Economy and trade policy developments and sentiment during that period but that is what has happened over the intervening period and different people around the table have different perspectives. Im just curious on your Balance Sheet with organic growth over time and the question is maybe just a little bit too small is too scarce to get through this unusual. Is this organic growth to get to a point of ample reserves and is that a possibility of the committee . Its tough to deal with every possibility and for the foreseeable future we will be looking at, if needed do what we did the last couple days and thats the tool that we will use brick on the question will be as we go through the quarter and and learn more how much of this has to do with the level of reserves and we will learn quite a lot the next six weeks. To tell. Another money market question with that volatility we have seen in the rockets. And with that liquidity coverage ratio and with that reserves and those are calibrated to high. But it might be that more reserves are needed with a Stable Funding ratio we look to stabilize that in the near future. And also some talk about giving some banks to move to room. And with those liquidity buffers and that as a general rule. A month ago and in Monetary Policy. But my point really was with the trade policy is not the business of the fed letting that a checks the effect that should take into consideration is something that weighs on the outlook and in recent remarks what we cant address really is what businesses would like which is a federal roadmap we cant do that but we do have a very powerful tool to support demand through Monetary Policy. Through ferry fairly understood channels and other sensitive items with those conditions of that investment by businesses in boosting confidence. I dont want to say they dont have an effect but there is a piece of this that we cannot address. Its a challenge there is no bottom line answer but what it amounts to with that volatility that is typical of the ongoing negotiation is what we need to do is to look through the volatility and react to the Underlying Forces that are happening relative to our mandate. We have nothing to do with setting trade policy or trade agreements we are supposed to be reacting on behalf of the American Economy for stable prices we need to look at the situation not overreacting quickly that is what we are trying to do. The outlook is positive in the face of these crosswinds and to some extent they are shifting to a more accommodative stance and has remained favorable. Since the statement was released they think another rate cut is coming this year what will guide fed policy to suggest no more moves or keep them in place are you reacting to your gut feeling . Should they just watch for jay powell speeches . What is the feds reaction function . What we are looking for through all of the events around the world with the evolving geopolitical events and the Global Growth and trade policy uncertainty we are looking what is affecting the outlook as it relates to stable prices so all of that can affect the achievement of our goals it is an unusual situation because the us economy itself the largest part, the consumer part is strong but the manufacturing is less so we see an economy generally forecast show 2 percent which is a good solid year so the difference is our risk to that outlook so we would be looking at all of that and how they affect the outlook. It is a challenging time i admit we have to be open to all those things we are not on a preset course we see this meeting by meeting and we tried to be as transparent as we can as we go. So today with a modest adjustment should there be a recession with the rates drifting lower into negative territory are there any other tools before going there . In terms of firepower that general principle is it can be a mistake to hold onto your firepower until it gains momentum. And research would show thats the case and that would be applied carefully to a situation at hand but what we believe we are facing is what could be and should be addressed with moderate adjustments as i mentioned we are watching carefully to see if that is the case then we are prepared to be aggressive but if that turns out to be appropriate. You mentioned negative Interest Rates. That is something that we looked at during the financial crisis and chose not to do then we chose to do a lot of forward aggressive guidance and those were the tools that we used and we feel that they worked very well we did not use negative rates and i think if we found herself and not what we were expecting look at largescale asset prices and we are in the middle of the Monetary Policy review looking at these questions of the framework and the strategy and expect that to be completed sometime next year. Im with the l. A. Times can you talk about the mechanism of the rate cuts and the economy and also the effects of trade uncertainty . In terms of how rate cuts will affect the economy first we think Monetary Policy is a variable lag so the real effect over time but we think lower Interest Rates will reduce interest burden for borrowers like housing and durable goods and that supports purchases of those to be broadly more conditions and the data show thats another powerful channel. Uc household Business Confidence turn up when financial conditions become more informative. It isnt precisely the right tool for every possible negative thing in the economy but it broadly works. If it comes to it we will use all of the tools. Thats how we think it is working. [inaudible] it is very hard to say it is tough to say we will use the tools as thats the job of Monetary Policy. With things that drive us away from maximum employment. So the low Interest Rates are creating a bubble of consumer and corporate debt to make it more difficult for consumers to recover from the next recession or survive from the next recession . Households are in very strong shape they have more income relative to the interest requirements and they are in very good shape, much better than the financial crisis the household sector as an aggregate matter, it doesnt mean every Single Person overall is not concerned that the business sector is something we have talked about and studied a lot. The situation is the level of debt relative to gdp is a high level the so is the business sector so actually the business sector itself is not a higher leverage but nevertheless those are highly Leveraged Companies and that happens and you do get that phenomenon. Its not anything to undermine the work of the Financial System it is a shock to create term of the economy it is more of an amplifier. We take it very seriously. We monitor carefully with the federal Financial Stability board. Thank you chairman. Im from marketwatch you are saying the economy is doing well but there is a sense from people that it is starting to slow and people have talked about recession and less so thanhe oth economy but there is a section that is exposed to that trade policy uncertainty has an effect. And you can see some weakness but nonetheless the job of Monetary Policy is to ensure agt thatownside risk but to support the economy in light of what we do see. We dont see a recession or forecasting a recession but we are trying to support of a more favorable outlook. The inverted yield curve that is a bond market signaling recession . Is that not pertinent . We do look at the involuntary yield curve along with a wide range of conditions. There is no one thing the yield curve is something that we follow carefully. And again based on the assessment of all the data so to talk about the Current Situation the longterm rates went down then to retrace two thirds of that move so what really matters is when there are changes that are sustained for a period of time. But why are longterm rates but also it could be though term like for example it could just be that there is a large quantity of negative yield of sovereign debt around the world exerting us pressure without having an independent signal and weak Global Growth would affect us so the Global Markets and the economy is quite integrated for go we will not be dismissive of the yield curve but on the committee there is a range of views. Summer focus on the yield curve and others not so much. From my perspective, you watch it carefully and you need to ask yourself a lot of questions if that is inverted, why that is. You mentioned trade policy being the complex ongoing discussion. What is your rule for stopping as far as Interest Rates go . You say its a cycle adjustment to suggest no more rate cuts but we get that back and forth between us and china with the uncertain trade policy with china is heightened so under what circumstances . And as leader of this institution if we felt felt the need for employee morale. I would love to come down to articulate but it is really when we think we have done enough and we are watching the situation and as it moves through the course of this year. We see ourselves as taking actions to sustain this action. If you look at things in the economy with expansion because we really are reaching this positive economy and it hasnt been reached in a long time there is a great benefit as long as possible. So were watching carefully and there will come a time and also will be watching things carefully with the data and the evolving situation and that is what will guide us on that path. With the terms of the morality, is very high we are unified and doing the best job we can serving the people. High chairman investigating bank of america for opening unauthorized accounts is the fed also investigating this and also against wells fargo if you are concerned the banks are too big to manage . That headline this morning with the preparation of this mornings meeting i dont have anything on that that wells fargo, there were quite wide breakdowns that resulted in mistreatment of consumers that we know was quite harmful to the consumers and i dont know if thats what happened at bank of america as a stand here today. The fed and the fellows Central Banks have been exploring the far reaches even going so far with mixed results physical and trade policy to maintain those separate course courses, as you and your colleagues do a Monetary Policy framework review, do you consider the limitations . Should be more explicit what it can and cannot do in this environment . We try to be clear but our job is to use our tools to do the job that congress has assigned us. That is the real job but in terms of giving fiscal authorities about advice on how to do their job, we keep that at a high level. And yes i would say at a high level that it is really fiscal policy that is more powerful and has much more to do that is the longer run growth rate of Labor Force Participation so all of that comes from the private sector or the types of things that can be done with fiscal policy. Over the long run we cannot affect the growth rate of the United States it is a function of other things i try to be clear about that but ultimately they will do what they seem appropriate. Mister trump has been a very vocal critic of you and your colleagues recently calling you boneheads and just now called you a terrible communicator. How do you respond to these criticisms . I dont. I will not change my practice here today not responding to comments made by elected officials. I continue to believe the independence of the Federal Reserve with no direct political control has served the public well over time and i assure you my colleagues and i will continue to conduct Monetary Policy without political consideration. We can use our best judgment with the facts and objective analysis to pursue our goals and thats all i have to say on that. Thank you for taking my question. Yahoo finance. At the beginning of the month theres been a lot with that liquidity crunch. Does the fed have concerns over the impact for the us debt is that conversation you have with the treasury secretary and the proper way to address those challenges down the road . Not really. That is treasury and congresses job. How they spend are the deficits, none of that calls for that we take the School Policy now that doesnt stop us to say that its important that us fiscal picture returned to a sustainable footing and right now its not. Thats been the case for a long time and something we have to address and a good time to do it is when the economy is strong. And with a high level statements. In your view is there any risk to the United States having a much higher Interest Rates of japan or any risks to the us economy or the Global Economy . The Global Capital markets are highly integrated. And the rates are definitely pulled down abroad. And the low rates abroad are a sign of weak Global Growth and a lack of policy space or ideas how to break out and that has implications for us in a world where economies and Financial Markets are integrated that will pull down us rates in predictions. That goes into our thinking and our models. And thats the goal to set interestrate policy. Thank you very much. [inaudible conversations] looking into the Mental Health needs of Migrant Children held in us custody members ofhe House Appropriations subcommittee heard from the director of hhs Refugee Resettlement office and the Department Inspector general. And members of the Departments Office of Inspector General to discuss the recently released re