Programs pop. Global leaders, city, delight and united airlines, corporate partners, we would also like to thank our coorganizer, the young china watchers. It is a great flour be working with them for tonights program. Now it is my pleasure to welcome miss vicki lai, the cofounder and head of the new york chapter of young china watcher ford her brief remarks. [applause] good evening, everyone. Im vic year and lai and im the head of the young china watch america new york. Im behalf of the young chinaer watchers in new York Leadership Team who is in front, we would like to thank the Japan Society for this amazing opportunity to host this evening together. And thank you all for joining us. We have a fantastic evening for you. Our Organization Young china watchers is a Dynamic Group of china focuses young professionals. Through regular roundtables and talks with senior figures in the china academic policy and business communities, we provide a chance for engaged individuals to interact and discuss the most pressing issues emerging from china today. Through our growing Global Network we seek to foster the nexten racing of china thought leaders. Now i have the privilege of introduce thing evenings presenter. Ankit panda special rises in International Security defense, geo politics and economics. His work has appeared in a range of publications including the new york times, Foreign Affairs, the atlantic, pollitt to and war on the rocks. He is currently the Senior Editor at the diploma where the do its daily on security, geopolitic friday and check ins in the asiapacific region ands a junk senior fellow at the federation for American Sciences and focuses on nuclear and conventional force developments and deconcerns and nuclear strategy. Pan days director of research for the diplomat risk intelligence, a contributing editor at were on the rocks rod in addition to this impressive set of accomplishments he has a Korea Society fellow, German Marshall Fund young strategist and a Carnegie Council on ethics and International Affairs new leader. Now without further adieu lets welcome ankit panda. [applause] thank you, everyone for coming out today. Thank you Japan Society for this lovely venue. Not always we get to do events on International Affairs in new york city inned a auditorium this beautiful. To the young china watcher and vicki i have the pressure of introducing someone that needs no introduction. Were fortuned to be here if with dr. Sheila smith, the country for most expert on issues related to japan, to japan u. S. Alliance, and asia Security Issues in general ever when im wright about asia security or japanese issues always google sheilas name next to the topic to see if she has written something about it because i orlando quite a bit from their past writings. See la is a senior fellow at the council on Foreign Relations and works on japan. The author of japan rewarmed the book were here to discuss and of intimate rivals, japanese domestic politics and a rising china. Sheila has also been the author of a cfr interactive guide on constitutional change in japan and a regular contributor to the cfr blog and a frequent contributor media outlets. She joint cfr in 2007 and directed a multinational Research Time in a crossnational study of domestic politics of the u. S. Military presence in japan, south korea the philippines aming scholarship scholarship before that in a visit researcher at two leading japanese think tanks, the Japan Institute of International Fairs and the university of tokyo and she has she is an adjunct professor never Asia Studies Department at georgetown university. So i invite everybody now to welcome sheila smith to the stage where shell speak briefly on her new book, japan rearmed. Thank you. [applause] thank you. Thank you for that lovely intro discussion. I am delighted to be back in Japan Society. Many ouroff may know that i was a graduate student here in new york. At Columbia University and the Japan Society is where we hung out and get to be adults in the japan world. We came to see films here, we dime see programs like this. We saw the Japan Society as a home away from home in a way where we got to be japan professionals, not just students that were graduate students but actually to talk to others who were accomplished and who has developed careers in the the field so im delighted to be here and its a beautiful place. Very bright lights but very beautiful room. I cant see you just so you know. I have friended in audience, youre behind a big light but thank you all for coming out. This is lovely audience and i look forward to the conversation. I want to think the young china watcher ands vicki in particular who invited know come and talk to her group and i was delighted to have a chance to meet the next generation of movers and shake hes in the china world so thank you for that and of course, always makes me feel welcome. Its been too long but im die light told be back. I have a new book, book that takes me back also because its a book i began to think about when i was graduate student at columbia. Write his dissertation, and i was looking at country that had imbedded in its constitution an article, article 9, that basically said it would not treat military force or military power in the same way that other countries did or took for granted. It said in its constitution that japan and japanese people would forever renounce war as a means of settling international disputes. I as a graduate student thought that was remarkable thing and wickeder our constitution said Something Like that, too. Not because i was pacifist, but because it seemed to obvious that would be a smart thing to do. But the real question that i wanted to research in my dissertation was how does that square with being one of the principal allies of a Nuclear Super power in the post war era . How does that square with what we then thought of as the defining configuration of International Politics the cold war. I was a grad student at the end of the cold war. Seems like very long time ago but it was in the that frame that i went to graduate classes, taught by bob jarvis and other theiriofinternational relations at columbia and the cold war framing and every security class was about nato. Every security class focused on extended deterrence and nato. Not one focused on asia. I was a contemporary of people like victor which cha, tom christianson. Our generation thought why arent we talking about this in asia, talking about the pressures not only of extended deterrence and a aye lines alliances but security in the asiapacific. So myopically focuses on europe bit was the cold bar and thats what we need poll see terms. Our generation came along and said hold on. The dynamics of the cold war play out differently in asia. They the two hot wars of the cold war were in asia. And our allyies in asia feel the divisions that europeans face into eat and west and north and south on the Korean Peninsula but japan felt it office just offshore of china. And obviously of the soviet union at the time. We come a long way since then. Japan was very resistant to seeing itself own military as playing a considerable role in that cold war. It did, however, see great advantage to offering bases and facilities to the United States, which Forward Deployed it forces in region and the selfDefense Forces gradually development their capability and sense of mission and their sense of perhaps what kind of contingency might motivate the named for them to defend their country under that framing of the cold war. The Korean Peninsula, from the very beginning, from the korean war, was the defining possibility that might bring war to the shores of japan. It has it was then in 1950 and remains that way today. Its the most likely place where armed force could be used in asia, and therefore becomes the most likely way in which japan would become emfloyd a war. Now, that doesnt mean that all of the selfDefense Forces thought about what they would do in a korean contingency. Took a long time in japan for the kinds of thing wiz take for granted if you it . Washington. I suspect if you sit in beijing. But thing likes Contingency Planning or talking about what are you going to do if. The worstcase scenario kind of thinking that this job of militaries and the departments of defense. Took a lime item for that lime tire for that to become legitimate in the post war japan and i talk about that divorce between military civilian authority over security planning that was very much a part of the early decade japans thinking. In the post war period. But things changed after the cold war ended and so the book i just wrote, my dissertation, some of research of that period is in that second chapter, the background chapter. But the bulk of the book is really about the way in which different kinds of realities and pressures pressures pressures pressures and thinking shaped what i think is a significant transformation in tokyo how japanese plans and the public sees the utility of their military in the post cold war era show. Book is really date from the end of the cold war, it has structured with different ways in which debate has played out for different ropes reasons. But die walk through one of the early pieces of that is so fundamental and hopefully we talk about this later in the context of what is happening today. And that is sending the selfDefense Forces abroad. Sending japans military out of the country. And of course it was done in coalition with other partners, with the United States and with the u. N. , for peacekeeping prayings but the end of the cold war brought the selfDefense Forces more clearly into the forefront of Japans National thinking about its role in the world. Now that doesnt mean that the Japanese Military is mobilized in sent around the globe to attack people. It is not the framing that even mr. Abe people see him as forthright, very few pipe in japan see that role for their military. What they see is a role the selfDefense Forces can play in conjunction with other partners to help address some of the global challenges to security. So you saw them first and foremost in theun in cam boda, many people here especially for those who u. N. Experience know that the mission, was led by a very wellknown u. N. Diplomat who is japanese, mr. Okashi. Wait comfortable framing for the very first effort to send the selfDefense Forces abroad to help alongside others around the globe, to help cambodia move into a post conflict peaceful transition. Right . That was the very beginning of the selfDefense Forces story under the pko law of 1991. But today, the selfDefense Forces operate across asia, across the globe in fast ball. Sometimes in pko, sometimes in humanitarian or disaster relief, sometimes unilaterally. They participated in the United States response to 9 11. They did refueling operations in the iraq war. They are contentious at home but nonetheless thats what happened. They are today operating in the gulf of aiden in the antipiracy. They also the delve Defense Forces today have at the behest of the Prime Minister of course operate in conjunction with the australian military, the indian military, they visit the philippines, vietnam, singapore, many of the places where we think that war memory would preclude the japanese from sending military but night a capacity that is very different than the prewar period. The japanese today are helping the filipino military, especially on maritime capacity building. Theyre helping them make sure they have the ability to defend their own waters. They have visited vietnam at the invitation of the vietnamese government for similar reasoned. Work very closely with australia, all across the western pacific, on intelligence gathering, surveillance, monitoring, all kinds of consultations now on the south china sea. Theyre both maritime partners. But theyre very close security parts of the United States as partners of the United States as well. India another interesting story. The United States and india have been having exercises over the years. We typically think of them as maritime exercises but in fact they now engage all three of indias branch of 0 the military. Japans three branches of the selfdefense force, the maritime care and ground for have a strategic conversation with their friends in new dehli and the exercised are something the japanese have been built into as part of their efforts to increase their security and Strategic Dialogue with india. So you have a very active selfdefense force now in the region, places where you might not think that the Japanese Military would be all that welcome. But in fact the Japanese Military today is one of the best most accomplished militaries in asia and they are also very instrumental in making sure that other countries around the region feel they can turn to tokyo to help them if and when they get challenged by other growing larger parties in the region. Of course the mary time area where is we see he that most conspicuously but not exclusively. Im referring to the chinese but where the Chinese Military operates in southeast asia. So japan is the Japanese Military today is four or five generations after the end of world war ii and a very different military. Its very professional. I think youll know a lot of people have asked me, why did you put that cover on your book . I would hold it inbut i dont have a copy but has provocative there it is provocative cover but the picture aside, the title is something that i thought about a long time because of my work at cfr. I live down in washington, dcs a you know. I spent a lot of time there both in the in obama areas and no he Trump Administration and officials would come to me and still come to me to say are the japanese rearming . Are they going to build a military . Japan has invested considerably in its military capability. Without a doubt. Top 10. That goes back to the 1980s. Today it somewhere around seven or eight depending on how much china is spending at the moment. It slips back and forth. Its ranking within the top 10 may be slightly different yeartoyear. Theres no doubt about it, japan has felt it necessary and important to invest in the military as it instrument of statecraft. Whats more interesting is not three militarizing of japan but the decisionmaking that japan has engaged in the last decade or more about how to use that military. I just walked through one of the chapters with you here about sending the forces abroad in coalition with others. The more difficult issue for japan of course has been defending and making sure their military is ready to defend, should someone put pressure, threaten, coerce or actually attack japan. I think thats the one place where you see a considerable change in japans environment. He see two neighbors, and thinking of north korea and china, who have themselves moved their arsenals into a position of capability or increase their capabilities are sufficient to be japan. That is me north korea is about to attacked the chinese. Doesnt mean abbut both of those countries have invested considerably technologically and financially. In building rapidly military capabilities that undermine japanese security. We saw the most recent indication of that in 2017 when North Koreans were sending barrages of missiles overtop of japan and then resending a larger test missile that could potentially reach the United States actually into japanese airspace or over japanese airspace. Japanese now look at north korea and of course they worry about the Nuclear Peace obviously. Because that will be a test for all our allies, especially our nonnuclear allies of south korea and japan but for the japanese it missile arsenal. It really lays bare the vulnerability of japanese capability. Japan does not have eating,adoe have missile strength of its own. It has very carefully avoided developing the kind of capability, has stayed very much in defensive mode, reactive mode. But as the japanese have watched the koreans and North Koreans develop this kind of capability and proliferate the number and the kind of missiles that pyongyang has accrued over the last 5 to 10 years, it raises what i call in the book, a missile gap, it raises the question for the japanese. Are they continuing, are they going to continue to subscribe to this idea that they should not purchase a strike capability . That they should not do this . This has been part of the political debate in the book. They can read it if its not interested, politicians have debated this avs have people inside the ministry of defense and inside the Defense Forces. Thats a threshold the japanese have yet to cross. Thats one way in which the threat perception which north korea has been doing since the mid1990s has affected the japanese thinking about their own defenses and wants might be necessary. Japan has done, and done with deep investment, is engaging Ballistic Missile defense system. He saw last years the japanese government announced it would expand the capacity of their Ballistic Missile defenses to include an onshore version of what they call the ages of sure which will give japan a much greater capacity to detect, track and if necessary to shoot down any missiles coming from continental asia. There has been a lot of spending on a defensive structure, force posture, to deal with the missile threat from north korea and potentially obviously the missile threat from other parties around japan. The second area where japan has seen its threat perception intensify has been china. Weve seen that in terms of the modernization of Chinese Nuclear forces but we saw the japanese getting very nervous in the mid1990s about chinas willingness to threaten taiwan. With potential use of force during an election campaign. The real challenge, the real wakeup call for japanese security planners and for the u. S. Japan alliance was the island disputed 2010 and again in 2012. abthese islands in the East China Sea have a very strong emotional component, especially for the Chinese People but also the japanese. China and japan have basically avoided a direct clash. Lets just leave those sovereignty issue on the side but by the mid2010 that was no longer possible as you saw it ratcheting up of not government to government tensions really, citizen to citizen tensions, protester demonstrations. Fishing captains. Having a few too many and decided to take on the japanese coast guard. That then galvanized i think the Political Leadership in both countries to a point where they could back down so now you got Government Forces on both sides, coast guard, not yet navy, operating within the territorial waters of those islands, which were for a long time basically were quietly managed by the two governments. Today the aisland drive Japanese Defense planning. But it certainly opened up the possibility for the first time that japan might be the recipient of some kind of pressure, military pressure, from china. Or some kind of military attack may be on these remote islands. Before the United States was involved. I talk a lot about korea, the assumption about a contingency on the Korean Peninsula during the cold war it even after the cold war was always United States would respond in that japan would either be pulled in or want to support u. S. Forces to the bases but never somewhere where japan would be attacked directly, that the initiation of the use of force or conflict would begin with japan. But the san cock island disputed in to raise the prospect that miscalculation, and accident, not deliberate necessary ambition but that kind of escalatory dynamic something we are seeing a little bit over there in the middle east today. That type of wrapping up of tensions can be very hard to manage. The japanese have responded with washington to shore up the u. S. Japan alliance to make sure the United States and japan are on the same page in case something were to happen. And to try to figure out strategies for ds glaciation should there be that kind of crisis. But nonetheless, that challenge with china over the islands really did open the possibility that the United States might not want to go to war with china. But the United States may have different interests from japan in a conflict such as that. Thats what we call the risk of abandonment. Allies dont want to be entrapped by the conflicts but they dont want to be abandoned by us if they have a need for us either. That became fairly focused look at japanese security and political thinking about how do we make sure the United States and japan are deeply embedded so that possibility of abandonment is probably not going to happen. I think those two scenarios north korea and china clearly have had the biggest impact not only in the way japanese think about weapon systems and purchases. He saw the defense plan the end of last year that an uptick in annual Defense Budget growth for the next five years but they also have prompted a rethinking of the u. S. Japan alliance. Ended up grading in the dialogue between the United States and japan about how the alliance is going to work, given the new asia, given these new pressures. The book also talks in a chapter i call arelying on borrowed power afrom the japanese perspective on why theres more attention given today by japanese political and security planner political leaders and security planners about how to make sure the United States remains engaged. And that the conversation between the United States and japan becomes more and more closer, i wouldnt say to war fighting kind of alliance, thats what we have the rok. Thats what we had with nato, largely still do. But that we get a little bit more concrete about what do we do should this happen . As you all may know we got 50,000 American Military personnel stationed for deployed in japan. We operate the exercise with operant ab those are the ones that matter if you are in a crisis or have to respond quickly to a crisis. I think thats why you have a greater sense of need for conversation between the United States and japan. In the last decade or so. Especially the last five years. We wrap up a little bit by giving you the two cents conclusion of the book. I work at cfr im not supposed to just be an academic. Im supposed to help try to make policymakers understand whats coming next. When i sit in washington in these conversations, im not a policymaker, i dont sit in classified settings. All the writing in this book is opensource based on my experience not based on any classified data or anything like that. When i do sit and have these conversations and i was at cfr in washington through the crisis through the 2017 north korea missile launches, what i thought the book that need to be written was, how does this work . Whats the debate in japan and how does it help us and help our policy community understand what might be coming next . It also speaks to the question about, is japan going to change . Its fundamental postwar organization of military Capability Limited to National Defense. Coupled with alliance with the United States. My answer today is, no. Unless. The unless is important because i think a lot of people feel this rising threat perception from north korea and china will make japan change its mind on things like conventional strike. Some people think even Nuclear Weapon when i did the book in new york at cfr i cant tell you how many questions i got about Japanese Nuclear capability and what the japanese could do and what they do it and how would they do it. I thought, take a breath. Japan is not about to become a nuclear power. Threat perception my conclusion is threat perception alone is not going to push japanese political or security strategic thinkers away from that basic fundamental premise. The limited capability, limited to the needs of National Defense and reliance on the u. S. For extended deterrence from both nuclear and conventional strike is still the preferred method of ensuring japanese security. I think thats going to be true no matter what the chinese or the North Koreans do. Where i think you will have a variable that will change japanese thinking, that variable will be the United States. If the alliance is no longer reliable, if we decide asia is not our thing, south korea and japan can go it alone. Why shouldnt they . If we decide that we are more interested in burden sharing than a shared strategic relationship across asia, if we decide to negotiate with north korea and accept them as nuclear power, its inevitable. These are the kinds of decisions i think will prompt some rethinking in japan about what that means for the long haul for japanese security. At the end of the day if theres a catastrophic failure in the alliance to defend japanese interest and certainly to defend japanese territory, then sure, i dont think the alliance is going to last beyond that. I dont think thats what any of us are thinking about though. Its the more unclear areas of how secure will japans political and strategic thinkers feel in american reliabilities and allies. Because japans military capability has largely been created to complement americas Forward Deployed forces and americas willingness to offer an extended deterrence. Should that willingness and, then you will have a japanese debate over what his options are and i dont in the book try to give you four or five actions that japan might do because i think its a little premature. I dont think that something thats going to happen overnight. And i dont think its something thats going to happen just because we were president in the white house at the moment who made some statements that make us a little worried about burden sharing. This is not a phenomenon when i conclude the book i do reference the president and his comments about our alliances but i walked awhat i want to do in the book is help americans understand that its our alliance with japan in the end that will be the most important shaper of japanese strategic choices going forward. Thank you. [applause] sheila, thank you so much for that amazing tour through the content of your book. Ive been spending a lot of time with the book recently and i recommend it very much. When i was thinking about how it would begin our conversation of Japan Society today i thought maybe you would do north korea first but then i woke up this morning and i had to change plans because now are you going to talk about the gulf of oman, which is unexpected. What a twist to iran, historic trip to iran. Unclear specifically which actors within the uranian system but certainly this puts japan at the center of the u. S. And escalation thats been going on for several months. My question is, walk us through the conversations you think are happening right now in tokyo. I know you spent a lot of time with japanese security planners but what is going through their mind and what are the questions they are asking themselves. This is a quick breaking morning for all of us. You are all saying what . I may be wrong because i was going on twitter and going on trying to figure out what was happening in the region and trying to figure out time differences between iran and tokyo and the east coast and the United States. Thats not where i normally think about it out there and middle east. I think it was a panamanian flagship. These are not ships that have the japanese flag on them. But the company that was responsible for the cargo japanese company. I heard later today was initially reported there were two japanese ships but one might be a taiwanese ship but there is one chip. The president of the company came out and said we dont know enough yet. I think all of what i could see coming out of tokyo and i see some rather official looking people in the room there probably better placed to comment on some of this than i am is we dont know exactly what happened. I find it hard to believe that this was something our secretary of state let me say this first, our secretary of state mike pompeo had a press conference this afternoon in which he seemed to imply was the government of iran that might be responsible. He said it was a setback for Prime Minister abe to do this. I think we dont have enough information yet to understand. I believe there are meetings happening either as we speak or into the night or early tomorrow morning. Hopefully we will get more evidence we will have some factual information from which to judge the scenario. But, with japan, my book is all about would japan make choices about sending its military end it is in the gulf of aden that there is a destroyer in the ctf 151 which is a combined task force or antipiracy operation. Source japanese or regular participants in. There is japanese Surveillance Aircraft that are based on a nobody in support of the mission. Japan does have assets in the region. Would japan apply those assets . No. And there are two reasons i think that. Would they do surveillance . Perhaps. With that combined Task Force Share data . Perhaps. But would japan send its maritime selfdefense force to confront iranian or whoever ships . Probably not. The reason i say that is twofold, the ships that were attacked, people have been rescued. There are no people anymore on burning ships. That would be the primary concern. What i think is harder is what does this mean for the missions that Prime Minister abe went on which is to help reduce tension. To offer his Services Potentially and mediator between iran and the Trump Administration here in the United States. I suspect secretary of state pompeos speech, today suggests that tensions that will go up between washington and iran. Not because mr. Abe didnt get the job done but because the cargo ships themselves offer an excuse or rationale for greater tensions. There is i think the challenge for the Prime Minister honestly. What is mod doing . There are people from the ministry of Foreign Affairs and the audience i wont presume to exist what theyre doing but the Diplomatic Mission was very important for japans interest. Nobody wants a conflict in the middle east, especially along the oil roots that service the advanced industrial economy of the world. So if you watch the market this afternoon, respond to the tankers, the bombing of the tankers, then yes this is going to shake up not only japanese economy but the Global Economy at large. My sense is, whatever the diplomacy ends up being inside the Un Security Council japan want to avoid a consecration that has this kind of destructive implications for the Global Economy and obviously for its own supply of oil. Changing gears a little bit, can you speak right now but japan particularly thinking about conventional strike acquiring its own missile forces. One of the topics that came to mind was on august 2 the intermediate range force treaty will no longer apply the United States the u. S. Will have withdrawn. Weve heard reporting that the u. S. Will develop missiles, the treaty restricted the United States from developing ground or launched missiles with ranges between 550 500 kilometers. In your understanding, this is a recent development them u. S. Made the decision in february, with the conversations you think are happening in tokyo about anf in the future and how is that going to plant the debate. Let me try to unpack that. The history of ins in japan is something that maybe the audience may not know which is intermediate Nuclear Forces largely seen as a european problem back when. During the cold war. There was because the soviets developed ss 20 missile they had deployed it to the Eastern Europe and western europe and the United States were worried about this would make it hard to manage escalation and to turn our Nuclear Weapons. Thats a little cold war history. At the time it was awho was Prime Minister in the 1980s. At the williamsburg summit the japanese government led by Prime Minister amade us very strong point that the security of the west was indivisible. We were talking about star wars back in and we were talking about what we take for granted and Ballistic Missile systems. abecause the United States and russia, soviets at the time, were saying, we will pull back these intermediate range Nuclear Forces from europe and put them on the other side of the soviet union. Who lives on the other side of the soviet union but japan. Its basically a conversation between the two superpowers that was going to solve a problem in europe at the expense of our allies in asia. Japan said no thank you. We are not going to accept that there was a very powerful beginning of a conversation on the import of this not only inf but compromises the United States might be willing to make that would be detrimental to japanese interests. Now the story is somewhat different. Now its conventional and nuclear communities missiles can do both. They carry both kind of capabilities. President putin has largely driven the conversation about the inf coming apart because of the capabilities that russia has been developing. I think you can get two opinions on this, you probably have a pretty wellformed ability in your self on whether or not we should of walked out or shouldnt have walked out based on what the russians were doing. You can make the case on both sides. But the real blog for asia is china. Chinese intermediate Nuclear Forces are not covered under the inf treaty. I am not nacve enough to think, lets have a trilateral treaty. And everything will be great. Because the chinese dont even acknowledge that inf matter. They just dont. Its not a problem, we dont have to talk about it we are not interested. Thats the real problem for japan. Interestingly enough as you know the japan china relationship has been getting a little more in the problemsolving mode and a little warmer and i think some of the senior bureaucrats from the ministries of Foreign Affairs from japan and china to Bureau Chiefs of judges ottoman have decided they need to have a little bit of a conversation about the possibility of discussion of inf. I dont think there is going to be abits hard for me to imagine how japan and china could have an effective treaty of their own but its interesting that its rising a little bit in the japan china relationship. Reality is, i dont think our government is interested in disarmament. In the conversations between japan and the United States being in alliance dont seem to be an alliance. They are not either. Our last Nuclear Posture review, i dont want to bore you guys all with the nuclear conversations but you can go back to the obama era and there is a kind of dual reaction to the proxies. There is a very strong embrace by the japanese public president obama speech in prague about the responsibility of the Nuclear Powers also to disarm. Not just not per location but that. Its a very strong japanese desire for nuclear disarmament. For obvious reasons. But for extended for those who responsible for planning extended deterrence, theres a little bit of a tricky issue here, which is how do you make sure that there is enough teeth in the american forward deployment to bolster the nuclear umbrella. If china does this or north korea does that then we have a whole arsenal of Weapons Systems with which we can respond. Thats the more recent conversation on the Nuclear Posture review incorporated some of the japanese thinking on exactly what kind of specific weapons they would like to see us put out in the regions. The warming you described between japan and china we are expecting to see a meeting between president xi and president abe not far from now. What you think will be discussed when they meet . Is coming at the g 20. Its not a bilateral summit. Mr. Abe went of course as you know last year to beijing so it was just japan china meeting. I suspect iran just like our q a just got taken over by the iran conversation i suspect that will be high up there too because the chinese will want to have that conversation. There will be a lot of countries that want the iran situation to be included in the g 20. But then lets leave that out there for a second. North korea, interesting to me is the extent to which some of the conversations at the highest level between the Prime Minister and the president of china have included reference to north korea and Prime Minister abe has passed not only present trumpet also president xi jinping to help persuade i think north korea will be there obviously. The larger context of the japan china conversation these days is how we can we Work Together across the region . This is what i thought was interesting about the Prime Minister abe trip to china is that i think both governments were trying to find a place where japan and china might find Economic Cooperation opportunity together that highlights not necessarily be a abut also highlights the Prime Ministers idea of a free and open pacific. So can we find common cause . Can we find a place where we are not logging our heads where we may be able to find a constructive balance between our visions of what the future of asia should look like. I think we will open for questions now. I think theres a microphone around the room. Raise your hand if youd like to ask a question and when you do, please wait for the microphone, state your name and affiliation and please make your questions short and make sure they are questions. We will take questions now. We will start over there. Can you tell me that your thoughts on japans Cyber Defense capabilities. I will preface that by saying im not a cyber expert. What ive been watching unfold from somebody whos interested broadly in the security relationship between our two countries is two things, one is that everybodys who here in new york especially if you work in a corporation understand the private sectors were seeing a plethora of services is really very valuable. Japan has been doesnt spend a lot of time with nongovernment cyber experts, in this country, in israel, in other countries where cyber is seen to be pretty robust industry. You see not only japanese private sector engagement but also Public Sector consultation. The japanese of course are getting ready for tokyo 2020 next year, its a point of deep concern because of course everybody in the world who will be going to tokyo and domestic security in japan will be of the highest order, obviously, as it is with every country that hosts the olympics. There is that preparatory phase as well. Its not just simply with the two militaries may or may not be doing. The interesting thing about hear this from people who are experts on cyber. Im just sharing what im hearing. The more robust forward leaning and creative cyber knowledge is not yet in the government. Its actually outside governments and that is something that the japanese government has been persuaded needs to be a priority for them. I think our inside government cyber capacities, to be quite frank, i guess maybe i shouldnt be too frank. Let me try to be diplomatic in my frankness. Weve had a lot of hacking. Of our government, of our National Security agencies. There is a lot here that the United States is working on in terms of the fragility and that doesnt mean that the United States has no cybersecurity, please dont misunderstand me but theres also different dimensions of this step we as the United States government continues to grapple with. Its uneven across our government. So there is that. If i could say one final point, its not about cyber, its about security at large, the japanese government under Prime Minister abe passed the National Secrets law but which was something that the u. S. Government in particular but also australia and others really wanted japan to upgrade its Government Security systems. So that sharing of intelligence and data could be fully protected. There is a push to include japan in awhich is the contortion of five countries all englishspeaking countries. That share intelligence across alliances. Japan was very quick to make its decision on huawei. Largely for that reason. Because United States government doesnt want its allies to be using aproducts for the 5g networks i think japan is moving in a direction that it hopes will help to facilitate their participation in the five eyes intelligence sharing. Great question. Thank you. My name is aand a journalist. My question is about japans leadership role in the asiapacific given that the u. S. Is issuing little or no interest at all thats the feeling you get i will give you the example of the tbb which was abandoned by President Trump and japan took the lead by recreating the cdp be which has gone into effect after was gratified. What you think is the feeling in japan about americas leadership role . This is where it should out the japanese in the room. I think you should be frank. I should be frank. Diplomatically frank. I think this huge disappointment, the tdp physician theres obviously huge disappointment stop theres two reasons for that. This was an american and Japanese Initiative by the end of it. And we walked. I am not a fan of President Trumps decision cell those biases must be put on the table i think its a huge strategic loss for us but more importantly i think it was a huge Economic Opportunity that we lost as well. I think what happened at the end of the Obama Administration is that the obama Administration Officials began to sell it as strategic leadership when they ought to at home been selling it economically good for the United States and they couldnt make that case well enough. As you know in 2016 both republican and Democratic Base Party Members decided tdp was not good for america economically. We will have a long recovery i think of how we deal with that here at home in terms of how freetrade operates and to whose it is but in terms of our leadership is another place i think Prime Minister abe has been very forward leaning which is in the creation of the indo pacific revision and there along with Prime Minister modi in india they put a lot of meat on the bones of a broad conception for the region. It spans two oceans, three cotton minutes at least, maybe another one, over on the eastern side but i think this is another place where you see japans leadership is not necessarily saying im going to do this, you follow me, but Building Partnerships and networks and conceptions of what kind of collaborative space there is. At the end of the day, its all about the free and open endo pacific. Its all about values. What kind of asia japan wants to see him and i think sustaining what we now euphemistically referred to as the liberal order. But creating frameworks for rich freetrade, economic development, transformation to digital and all kinds of economic transactions, these things can continue to happen across the region, not just countries that have an advantage. I think japan has done a lot lately to offset some of the disadvantages. I think we have in the region and beyond. We are running a little short on time, do you mind if we take two questions at once. And i will try to be snappier. Last question we will start up here. Just wait for the microphone please. The upcoming g 20 summit hosted by japan, all the attention is going to be on xi and trump. Is there any immediate role to play a role with iran . This is the economic security. One last question from the audience. The gentleman right appear in the second row. And Roger Mcdonald from revitalization. The question is, the title of this is japan rearmed. The politics of military power. The question is, over the last 20 years, what has japan done to be rearmed. Is there a history or track record to track that . In the second is that domestically in japan what are those politics . What are the two or three key issues within japan domestic politics that are being addressed because of this . Im not sure i understood the second part. Let me start with xi and trump. In the g 20. I dont know how much iran is going to overshadow everything. It depends on what happens Security Council depends on what happens the next couple days. It becomes a little harder to take about g 20 but i think a trade war between the United States and china sooner or later is going to impact negatively on japanese interest. I think to the extent that abe wants to shape trumps thinking, it will be on the commonalities high pr, protections, the kinds of structural issues the imbalance, not of the deficit, the trading imbalance but of the way in which people are constrained in doing business within china. I think there is a lot of Common Ground between tokyo and washington on this. Between japanese and American Private sectors. I think theres a lot more Common Ground then we often get into the strategic mindset we forget there is common things. Things like cps. Making sure china is not purchasing Critical Technologies and resources. We have a pretty vibrant and robust order in washington. The practices by the chinese that are really undercutting competitiveness that are really also have this National Security concern for both of our countries and i think there is a lot of Common Ground, nonetheless, the trades the cost of this tariff war are huge. They havent necessarily been huge for the Global Economy yet but they are getting there. Theyre beginning to see the ripple effects and if you combine that with iran tensions the downturn on the Global Economy could be severe and the whole g 20 conversation will be about that i suspect. Nonetheless, i dont think Prime Minister abe is in a position to tell President Trump to stop. If he had that kind of influence on the president , we would be in tbp right now. This is just not what the president , the president is running up 25 billion in subsidies to our Agricultural Sector. We are getting hurt, sectors of our economy are getting hurt. I dont think mr. Abe is going to change that basic point of view. I think implicit in your question and maybe lee didnt mean it this way but ill take it this way, just because its the summer of 2019, is the bilateral u. S. Japan trade talks. There are other people who could speak much more cogently than i am how thats going to come out but there is frustration in the Trump Administration ambassador hegarty our ambassador in tokyo made a very clear Statement Today or yesterday about the president s frustrated with the delay in the bilateral trade talks and if you may remember that when President Trump went to tokyo and had a lovely three or four day long extravaganza that included the imperial he was quite a long way pointed in his references to the lack of trade agreement and the continued deficit. I think underneath here is what i worry a little bit about is china he may just say, we are going to continue with china but lets get a little bit more concessions out of japan on the Agricultural Sector to make the farmers happier. There might be some spillover effect in the bilateral trade talks that will be hard for mr. Abe to manage, especially with the election. In the last five minutes i can give you the full book, i can tell you to buy the book. But i think to be fair, domestic politics and japan obviously have altered around article 9 the japanese i use the phrase the japanese themselves use over the course of these issues. The political interpretation of article 9 manifests itself in the policy of the military in the form of the breaks of the car like the bricks of the car. How thats interpreted over time has changed in a sweeping way. You go back to the 50s and 60s it was about what kind of weaponry do they have bombing sites . Capabilities, huge debates about facts of the aircraft. Zero now. What kind of sophisticated capability, not a problem. 70s, 80s, you move into mission, what kind of missions will selfDefense Forces, he cant do anything unless its nearly considered abno security of japan not geographical concept. Antipiracy imports of secure japan it doesnt happen anywhere near japanese territory. These ways of defining politically what kind of limits need to be imposed on military and the use of the military have gradually transformed over time. Its kind of the story of the book. How to limit, what limitations are implicit in the constitutions and what i really to keep the military from doing things it ought not to do. The second is the balance of political power in japan. For people not watching japanese politics everyday like some of us the fact is mr. Abe has two thirds majority in the lower house of parliament which for those of you who know parliamentary systems he can set legislative agenda and since the last upper house election he has had more or less if not two thirds majority at least people with affinity have been largely two thirds majority in the upper house. Very unusual in politics. The election coming in july is an upper house election its not clear that that will continue but hes had a lot of latitude because the ldp and its partners have been very strong electorally. It allows them to do difficult things for other leaders couldnt even if they wanted to could have gotten it done in my view. Theres a couple more teams but we are out of time. Those are the two big picture kinds of things is what you get done . There are several Prime Ministers along the way that have more capabilities than others politically to move the needle. Thank you so much. We will note that the subtitle of the book is politics and military in power so it delves into the questions. I thought that the description of japans hermeneutics of article 9 was excellent. I definitely learned a lot that i didnt know about the constitutional debates in japan. Japan rearmed, i invite everybody to think sheila. Thank you all for coming. 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