Sincerely that the lunches at the center for the National Interests are far better than the atlantic council. [laughing] and to top off this excellent lunch we have a great dessert, that is ambassador john herbst, who is with us today to talk about the future of ukraine and ukrainerussia relations. We really couldnt have a better speaker to address this issue. John has not only served as the u. S. Ambassador to ukraine, but has followed ukraine, the ukraine related issue for many years in his current capacity running this program as, European Program at the atlantic council. And having a real indepth understanding for, lets call it Eastern European and Central Asian affairs, having that only serve in ukraine but also uzbekistan, if im not mistaken. And he told me that i think what his first jobs after leaving the state department was running a program called dealing with complex problems at the National Defense university. And if it actually the u. S. State department trained you for dealing with complex problems, and creating them. [laughing] so without further ado im going to ask john to begin. And as is traditionally the case, you should know that this is being filmed by cspan, so we are not following we are on the record. Rick, thank you very much and richard, thank you for the invitation to come here. Also will talk about zelensky, what that means for ukraine and russianukrainian relations. The first thing to understand about president zelensky is that he won for reasons having nothing to do with Foreign Policy. The people of ukraine were demonstrating in polls 18 months ago, maybe 24 months ago that they wanted a new face in political leadership. Polls rectally showed in early 2018th that over 40 of the population, in fact, a plurality wanted none of the above. The above being all wellknown political figures. Thats because of a general dissatisfaction with the state of affairs, not so much of the russian war in donbass, but the state of domestic affairs, which is i say a consequence of two things. First of course is the static of socioeconomic system that is characterized ukraine for the 30 years since independence. And especially the problem of corruption. But also, this qualifies the first point i just made, which is that some serious changes were made, positive changes, and as people who know more about transitions from command economies can tell you that i, when you do the right things, visavis with the standard of living takes a hit. So the vote in ukraine which zelensky was a harvester of, reflected a sentiment that is an existing for several years. Zelensky did not win an outright victory in the person of the president ial elections. But he did pick up at large, very large rally in the mid40s and, of course, he won 72, 73 actually in the second round. More importantly, and this is, this is critical fronts and what may or may not be possible Going Forward in ukraine. Domestically. He won a resounding victory last month. And so the first time in ukraines postindependence history you have one party which has an outright majority. He can rule with that party by himself, and my guess thats whats going to happen. There are at least at least one of a party which should be a natural partner. Its not clear if zelensky will want to make that partnership. He can probably get the support even without the partnership. But the point is hes got 53, 54, four, maybe more than that, and thats very, very important. What that says to him when looking at ukraine, including ukrainian public which just voted these guys in, the changes they want are within his grasp if he seeks to make those changes. Okay. So who is zelensky x anyone who does politics knows if youre trying to figure out what the country is going to start with the leadership. He is a highly successful comedian and businessman. Hes quite smart. Ive only been once. I met him in february before he had turned his attention to understand the issues he used to face as president. And i can mention that ambassadors, western abbasid who sign at the time and were underwhelmed about his command of issues saw him six weeks later and there were deeply impressed. The guy is smart. The guy is smart. I think its safe to say that up until the time, actually up until some point after he decided to run for the presidency he wasnt paying great detailed attention to Major Political and economic issues. But, of course, he was a smart ukrainian growing up in ukraine and he was absorbing this. And i think probably most of you know he came from eastern ukraine. We all know about the differences in parts of the population in ukraine between east and west. I think those differences are often exaggerated and the differences are closing that they are nonetheless not irrelevant. And hes jewish dissent. Ukrainian and he speaks russian. And, in fact, hes had said toh up on his ukrainian. What sadiq khan there once it became clear he had a shot at becoming president. But coming from the east he observed certain attitudes which have prompted southern moscow to think he might be a friendly voice in ukraine for them to deal with. And i dont think he has the passion for a couple of issues, which are somewhat controversial in ukraine, the passion that for example, president poroshenko had. One of those being the language question and the other being the question of the orthodox church. But another important part of his biography which we need to understand to figure out who he is and where hes going is hes again man. And poroshenko isnt an old guy. Poroshenko might be 50 but zelensky is what, 41 . So essentially the soviet experience is that something he truly felt. Whereas poroshenko, he went to college in soviet ukraine or moldova in fact. Not so much zelensky. And that means some things which might have seemed reasonable for poroshenko and things which are not necessarily positive, about turning over, to reform in ukraine, are not normal, not natural for zelensky. Part of his growing up in the east, i think makes explain why we seen some talk from him as a candidate, as president elect, and as president about ending the war in donbass via negotiations with moscow. Not that poroshenko was against that, but zelensky fully put more emphasis on it. And that i think reflects his background. And its also something, but its not something he highlighted as a candidate. But he talked about it. And weve seen him as president take steps, consistent with such statements. But before i get to that, let me just digress a little bit to talk about ukraine and Foreign Policy more broadly. Sleep so you put zelensky in the contest which will help explain or he and the country are going here context. You might say, this this is a f a supplication, that ukraines Foreign Policy orientation over the past 30 years has two options. On the one hand, theres a concept of multivector concept where ukraine is somewhere in between russia on the one side, the eu and the United States on the other. And they used to talk about multivector risen and that was certainly the policy of poroshenko. The alternative to that has been a prowestern orientation, and we saw that with poroshenko. Zelensky is background would put him i would say somewhere in between those two alternatives. As i said, his background. And you can argue that as a wouldbe leader, and as the leader, he has taken some steps which also put in some were in the middle of those two possibilities, albeit more on the westward orientation side. He has offered the kremlin three concessions in his brief period on public stage. He talked about two referenda, one on relations with russia, the other on joining nato. Which could be seen as something positive from the standpoint of the kremlin. Those two referenda were not considered positively you might say by ukrainian political society. And zelensky, the comedian, the businessman, whose success is based substantially on the ability to feel his relevance, as a comedian you have to reach your audience, as a politician his country. He saw that reaction. And those two referendum just faded. But its important to recognize that before they faded, there was nothing out of moscow would suggest hes of interest to them. So those are two things he did. The third is more recent, and actually more important. In the war in the east, theres largely been a hardening separation between the russian occupied territories and the rest of ukraine. And on the ukrainian side, this was the result of the activity of people who are associate with a tougher line with russia. So the party which self obstructed, they were quite active in hardening the contacts across the line of contact in donbass, was it Three Springs ago . I think the spring of 2017 or 2016. There was talk in the diplomatic gyrations around donbass for over a year about somehow improving access across the line of contact, and poroshenko did not want to go there. Zelensky already has. He said yes, im open to making the Border Crossing a line of contact crossing work. Zero reaction from the kremlin. Zero reaction from the kremlin. Also, also you had the two two important facts that to this day putin has not congratulated zelensky on his victory here and more important than that, putin sends a little provocation zelenskys way when he is president elect with the passport game in donbass, the same game the kremlin has played in all the frozen conflicts. The so zelensky has extended a hand and he has gotten nothing back. And zelensky again come hes a guy who learns from his experience. Last month year we shall get off this specific theme, which is this, some people, more than some people, were concerned as president zelensky was emerging or as candid zelensky as this juggernaut destined to win the presidency, that it would be putins patsy, right . Longterm kgb versus the naive. Well, zelensky showed in the passport thing that he was not going to be an easy guy for putin commenced. Because zelensky a century but putin on it were in when he said hey, guys, take the passport. Thats a passport to life of repression repressive society. We have no control over leadership. And putin who loves to have the last word, he loves those colorful phrases, putin has been silent. Zelensky had won that battle. Because thats zelenskys strength. Ukraine class comic. Thats actually unfair. Ill roski near class comic. [inaudible] hes not going to be so easy for the kremlin to manage. And let me make it one more point. This cant , by attention big t. Actually two weeks ago. That the ukraine sees the russian tanker involved in the kremlin attacking ships. That was a gutsy move. That was a gutsy move. But gutsy but not stupid. Because he kept the tanker. He released the sailors, and i think the kremlin doesnt know what to make of this guy. And my own interactions with russia on various tv programs i think underscore that. And, in fact, the criminal reaction to the ship seized has been pretty mild, pretty mild. Okay now, so thats zelensky. What happens with the war, right . For me to address this i knew to explain to you my own peculiarities. So you can read what i say in context. I think that ukraine has the upper hand in donbass. The reason for that is the following. This this is a war of equipment against the ukrainian people. I put it that way because the ukrainian people by a large majority understand that moscow is conducting a war in donbass, and they support their countries policy, their governments policy of resisting kremlin aggression. We know the russian people want no part of this worker numerous polls have said that. We know that putin continues saying russian officers are not in ukraine, that this war is not ginned up by kremlin operatives. [inaudible] not to mention the thousands of officers fighting a war right now. And, of course, he hides russian casualties from the russian people. This is a major vulnerability for the crew would. I think ukraine has the upper hand, one come for that. Two, because it got adequate i dont think sufficient but adequate support from the west. The sanctions are in place. They have held five years despite numerous prognostications to the contrary. They have just been come the extension of sanctions just moved from six months to a year. I know the kremlin had open the champagne after the decision by the parliamentary assemble council of europe to let them back without them doing anything that was required. But extension of sanctions is a bigger deal. But i expect will be a common hit on nord stream two from washington will be a bigger deal still. Although that is still very much at play. So thats the second point. As long as that support remains, this is a major problem for the club. So sanctions cost the russian economy about 1 of gdp a year. Not insignificant especially given the fact that Economic Growth is so limited. And theres a third point here. Thats right, i mean, we reached come President Trump reached the supply of lethal weapons back in december 2017 and think youll probably see more stuff heading ukraines way. So i think to some old marxist phrase, the correlation of forces is on the side of ukrainians. If you watch carefully, kremlin activities and the moscow political conversation about war over the last several years, you have seen the following. The minsk negotiations are and ossified, largely irrelevant process. Not one interesting idea has come from the russian side in those talks. I wont say many interesting ideas come from the ukrainian side, but more than some. There have been two periods of real negotiations of the donbass conflict. The first, the first one was from january of 2016 until june of that year. Interesting things were said. Its worth recalling what is going on at that time. Because the kremlin which of course has been engaged in syria since assads troubles emerged in 2011 went in big time in the fall of 2015. Which was the First Time Since the crisis, since the seizure of crimea, that ukraine was bumped off the first line in russian media. And thoughtful people in moscow had recognized what i just explain to you about the correlation of forces in ukraine. And you begin to see some talk in a think Tank Community russia reflecting a little bit of flexibility, just a little bit, and then these negotiations began. And interesting things were said on both sides in those talks. So why did it stop in june 2016 . I think there are two reasons. One is of course divorce. Putin was never really comfortable with this but then, two, and more important for the time was the emergence of the time of donald trump as republican nominee. And i can tell you when we visited, the whole question trump and rush have been very much discussed and generally hyperbolic terms, but just from my interaction with russian think tankers starting in the fall of 2015 and watching the russian media, it is clear they like trump. So theres some question that the russian leadership was hoping it trump were to win, not that they expected it in the sum of 2016, they were hoping for a better deal visavis the United States on ukraine. Once again, once again the negotiations switched back to minsk. Nothing happened. Trump wins. And im going to give you one of my little secret for understand whats going on in moscow. And thats to follow the writings of dimitri, a very interesting guy. Ill digress on this speed is not too much. Ill just leave it for now. Trenton, he always wants to be within the bubble, the acceptable to kremlin bubble but always towards the edge of that bubble pushing moscow interactions which are probably good for russia and for better relations between the west and russia. Thats how i would characterize him. He wrote an article right after trump one recently saying russia can do whatever he wants in ukraine. Which demonstrate what the russian stock they would get with trumpet it didnt turn out the way as we all know. And again for thoughtful russians pondering u. S. Sanctions policy, pondering what happened in helsinki in the summit and post helsinki developments, recognize that trump was not the panacea they had hoped. And so then we began the second round of negotiations. And by the way, by late fall of 2017, really interesting thing were being written by russian think tanks. Russia can live with ukraine and nato. Other think tankers began to offer very serious ideas about an International Presence in donbass as a vehicle for ending the war. And, in fact, if you can establish a mechanism in which russians lose control of the border and the ability to send and soldiers, offices, weapons and such and six to 12 months for an International Force to be in charge, you could have real elections and i could be a face safer to get the hell out of donbass. So these negotiations resumed are rather different form but it only lasted until the summer of 18, the summer of 18. And my sense is, i cant prove this, that mr. Putin got nervous about some of the ideas being floated and said lets wait to see what happens with the ukraine elections. So we have now had the ukraine elections. So linsky has not turned out to be a more acceptable form zelensky. He has been a political operative in ukraine for 20 plus years. Putin is also the godfather of one of his children which is very important relationship in the Orthodox Christian world and i think its safe to call victor the kremlin favorite ukraine, the kind of love to see truly enforcing ukraine policy and is also one of the most odious figures in ukraine. Okay, heres the bottom line. It had the election. Who putin was hoping it would lead to serious ukraine concessions on Foreign Policy. Hasnt happened. Instead the east vote for guy is essentially endorsing a westward policy. Zelenskys victory is a disaster for the imperialist in moscow. Smart people in moscow understand that. Some of those smart people in putins in a a circle but they dont include the great man himself. So at some point the kremlin will make our decision to get out. At some point could be 12 to 14 months from now or eight to ten years. I dont know. Thank you. Well, theres a difference. [laughing] thank thank you, john. You gave us a lot to chew on. Let me sort of, as people cant think about what they would like to raise with you in terms of questions and comments, let me get the ball rolling by, you kind describing or at least commenting on how you depicted this emerging relationship between putin and zelensky. You seem to suggest that as you said putin hasnt congratulate zelensky, and you also seem to suggest that zelensky has made a couple of overtures that putin really hasnt responded to. I at least know they affect two conversations, and have also heard through lets say wellinformed american sources that zelensky has at least indicated that hes prepared to take a different approach to these ossified minsk agreements, and actually look hard at the idea of Holding Elections in the east. If he were to take that step, if he were to say, begin to actually implement the ukrainian requirements under minsk, what would be, and your judgment, the russian reaction there . Are what they just pocket that concession and stand back . Or would they so far weve seen no Russian Movement under the minsk agreement. Weve seen some although not a great deal of ukrainian movement. The key point is the way the two sides interpret the most controversial provisions of the minsk two agreement, which not just to the elections but the influence, or lack of influence, that local authorities in those territories would have over Ukrainian National security policy. The kremlin insists that whoever wins of those elections can veto ukraines National Security policy. And no one in ukraine with exception of sort of medvedchuk crowd agrees with that and for that matter neither to germany or france or the United States. I think if the kremlin were willing to accept, and i can see us as a face safer once mr. Putin realizes he cannot get ukraine to change its Foreign Policy by this method, that could be the face safer were you have real elections, with a certain kind of autonomy although that is controversial within ukraine. And i cant be sure how ukraine would ultimately resolved that through parliament. But i think if zelensky were to push on this and you have a real peace and ukraine is able to pursue its relationship with the eu, this could be a deal but thats not for me to determine. Thats for the ukrainians. Jacob. Please introduce yourself. I will. Im jacob, editor of the national interest, which is published by the center itself. In listening to your remarks my mind goes back to 1955, the year of the austrian state treaty when the four powers signed an agreement to make, to return sovereignty to austria. And it became a neutral country. And it seems to me improbable that it would be an agreement that would allow ukraine quickly to enter nato. With the austrian state treaty provide some kind of model within which germany, not just the United States but also germany was involved in a negotiation that would return full sovereignty to ukraine . I understand the question. I think that there are two relevant points here. Your question is i would say written from the standpoint of great power, thinking in great power politics. The great powers decide things for these little people. And the greatest strategic thinker in ukraine, who i comt to all of you, his name [inaudible] hes about 80 years old. Hes been a Strategic Advisor to basically every ukrainian president , a former guy from the rocket industry, the soviet rocket industry. He said to me, more than once, the only way russia will leave us alone is if we are in nato. Now, im not telling you thats the last word in ukraine, but i can tell you that as a result of moscows various aggressive steps over the past five years, majority of ukrainians now want nato membership. And we do, we should recognize the aspirations of people, which is not to say we always endorse them. Thats the first point. The second point is, this war, moscows aggression in ukraine was not about nato. It was not even about membership in the eu it was about trade agreement between ukraine and the eu. Russian policy on ukraines westward relations had always been clear until, i dont know, spring or early summer of 2013. They said no way can ukraine join nato. Nothing strongly against ukraine joining the eu. Suddenly in the summer of 2013 your russian trade embargo against ukraine as of this emerging agreement. So this is not just about nato. Ill leave the question at that. You know, jacobs question, the state treaty did succeed in getting the russians out of austria. And i had to say i have never had a single austrian complained to me about you great powers doing deals above our heads. I think they are all delighted by how that all turned out. But george, youve got the floor. Thank you. Im Vice President of the center for the national interest. Thank thank you, john, for your remarks, very enlightening and i think somewhat controversial. It want to ask you a question about 1. In your argument. And that is that russia basically has the lower hand as opposed to the upper hand when it comes to developments in ukraines east and the war. And then for a variety of reasons russia is under a lot of pressure to try to find a facesaving way out. I can understand argument as you presented it, but i think theres probably a Strong School of thought that just the opposite, that, in fact, whats happened in ukraine as expressed in zelenskys election and the victory is the ukrainian people saying enough. We want peace. We are tired of war here. That theres actually pressure within ukraine to find some way to regain control of the east but to do so in a way that brings peace and a settlement to all this. Thats one question. The other thing on the russian side, one of the things that impressed me as a russian observer is the degree of political will that has existed in moscow and in russia towards ukraine. Ukraine is i think arguably the most important Foreign Policy matter, Foreign Policy interest that russia has, has been explicitly identified as russias top priority for many years, going back into the yeltsin period. Period. And the question of ukraines geopolitical orientation as part of that nato membership is a critical issue in moscow. Their ability militarily to exploit as they see fit to ensure that the forces in don bosse are not defeated is very impressive so i wonder whether or not theres a great deal of political will on russias part to make sure that there is not a defeat in some way so i just like your reaction to that. I almost completely disagreewith you. I think ukraines one piece but we see no indication they believe they should let russia dictate or i shouldnt even say russia, will come back to that on your second point. They dont want to let the kremlin dictate their security and thats what this is all about. So yes, if they can buy negotiations or recover donbas and end the war without giving moscow of the show over its Foreign Policy, the ukrainian peoplego for it thats not where the kremlin is. And i see your second point, i think its flatout wrong. If the russian people understood that yes, the ukrainian cannot go to the west, ukraine cannot join nato, putin would tell the russian people whats going on in donbas but hes hiding it from them and hes hiding the casualties in these hidingbecause poll after poll says the russian people say we dont want our soldiers adding their. The political will in moscow is this why on ukraine. Between two years of president putin and there are people in the elite who understand that this is a disaster for russia and its part of a whole complex of policies which are a disaster forrussia. Andrew knows more about russian economy than anyone in this town and he can tell you that the economy is going nowhere and actions are only part of the reason, not the most important parts but the point is his growing state crony capitalist corrupt control of the economy is keeping a very, very talented people in for all. And ukraine is part of that. Ukraine is part of it. If youre right, if youre right and russia stays and holds onto theukraine and putin follows him , whatever he decides to leave, russia is doomed to become a fourthgrade economy and a third greatpower. Not in a year, not in 20 years but in 25 or 30 and they will become chinas little how which is only developing. John, youre right that anders knows a great deal about russia but we have another guy in this room who also knows a great deal about russia. His name is dimitri symesand he now has the floor. Microphone. Thank you very much for accepting our invitation. Thank you for what i consider truly to be this presentation and there a lot of things you said that i entirely agree with. If i disagree with you somewhat on the russian position , i will say it without any sense of setback because i dont know what the russian position is. Its very clear that we know we must be prepared. Itsnot very clear what they want. If they want to recognize the government as an independent republic, the course could do it and you can say well, there would be new sanctions. I dont think thats the reason because they are not prepared to pay for it. As you described, the russian opinion on the complex quite adequately, there was an element of pride. Its now not as strong as before but there actually are going through a period of government hardship and their willingness to pay for how to put it, is minimal at best. They also have military power to go further, to take over the whole look ons regions. Myimpression is this is not even being discussed. Regarding zelensky, i met zelensky in the first general in moscow. I was not aware that i was meeting the future ukrainian president. A couple of years ago, but whether or not, he was an increment of the general. Held exempt with one of their comedian shows. So i talked to several people who knew him. And their description of him wasexactly like yours. That he would not have the same sense of how to put it, in intense Ukrainian Nationalism which you would say in the case of poroshenko and some others but there was no question in their mind that whereas he spoke perfect russian, not only he was ukrainian but he was ukrainian was interested in the west orientation so people who knew zelensky in moscow, my impression is that there was no expectation he would become like mister miss joke, someone who represents the east of ukraine and sends a very strong and that hes proud of a very strong rush on official connection. Where the problem is and where i dont know whether we agree or disagree is what to do with this situation. I think that you said quite correctly that most ukrainians today want to be in nato. And i agree that the United States could not take a position that russia would have veto power. For me, when you say that somebody should not have veto power, for this to be of great importance you want to complete the sentence and to say that nato wants to invite ukraine. Ukraine is in the practice of ensuring nato and accordingly there is something the russians should not be allowed to dictate. I remember somebody had a problem on russian tv saying that they did not think that nato was quite ready for ukraine and talking about you and thats one reason you were so popular on those shows because while you were not pulling punches, you were openly talking about russian aggression and about houston, if nato is not quite ready forukraine , and why we would not allow newly elected authorities in lugano even as they were democratically elected, we have veto power over the whole ukrainian Nation Security policy but it would take nothing or very little for the ukrainian practical ability to make National Security decisions but with some reassurances that ukraine would not be in nato anytime soon. I certainly dont rule out that possibility. This is an evolving situation. And the ukrainians themselves will make that decision. Certainly there will be an american role in all this and thats hard to predict how this would play out but what you describe is certainly a possibility and not necessarily a terrible possibility. Wayne. American Foreign Policy council, thank you for your presentation. This is very informative. They may not be the only one who detected an element of your experience in jerusalem and the subtlety of your analysis because the more i look at middle east issues and ukrainian russian issues, i think you can learn from the two. Id like to shift the focus a bit to a third country in its relations with ukraine, namely our own. I carry no water for mister zelensky. I was as astonished as any foreign observer as and his achievements but the fact is he has achieved three times the democratic legitimacy, in both rounds of the president ial election and in the parliamentary election. Hes done something we americans aim is important. The key true electoral legitimacy. When is he going to get an invitation to come to washington . If poroshenko. Reelected he would have had an oval office visit by now he would have addressed a joint session of congress by now maybe. What is the problem here in washington in dealing with somebody who whatever else he may or may not be and i think you described his strengths and his limitations correctly in the complexity of the ukrainian position , what is our problem with zelensky as a new, legitimate force in the history of close soviet ukraine . Two short remarks. This is a case where having a camera means it will be a lot less interesting. The second is youve got statements coming out of moscow at the ukrainian white house that there will be a summit sometime in the next four, six weeks, i think thats true. Thats all i can say. Thank you. Georgetown university, i know you want to keep the focus on elites and leadership. Your point about demand for change in ukraine is fascinating and in 2011 the polling data in russia showed that two thirds of the people wanted either total or massive change in the legislature. Dimitri and his colleagues predicted if they didnt get it, there would be real problems and there were protests on a pretty wide scale. The Public Opinion data where getting in russia that you alluded to especially dimitri off again with the surveys, it is showing that russians are no longer so supportive of the aggressive foreignpolicy. Right after zelensky was elected we saw some indication that russian commentators were mentioning outcome ukrainians change we can mark the and you have any sense of whether thats going to bea factor in these discussions . It usually ukrainians who say things, not russians but ukraine isnot russia. So im not sure that the data that you referred to suggests theyre going to see ukrainian developments in russia anytime soon. Thats the first point but the second is, russia is also not russia away some spokesman claimed to be. What i mean is this area you often hear in discussions about Russia Ukraine about the ability of the russian people to suffer endlessly and do what their masters want. Thats true until suddenly it isnt. So theres a great history of walls in russia, rebellions. Ive been watching whats happening in russia. This thing in moscow, these constant demonstrations going on for three weeks, the demonstrations you had which were successful about the journalist and about the cathedral, all very interesting. Whether that means were on the verge of some major shift in russian politics, i hesitate to make that prediction. I just say watch closely. Youre just going to tantalize us. Fran and then down at the end. John, youre right to point to the shipping russian attitudes towards the eu. But my concern is that new attitudes have continued to shift towards ukraine and there is what i would say is a growing sense of ukrainian fatigue because of the lack of reforms under the previous government so i wish you would take a bit towards mister zelenskys likelihood of engaging seriously with the all the darts and achieving some level of reform in ukraine because i think thats key to whether ukraine can continue to advance, to the west. You pointed to him as being postsoviet but that doesnt necessarily mean that hes eu either. I have to say that the great question and nonmistaken. I dont think i heard the word corruption mentioned by you in your presentation. I said he ran on anticorruption. House he doing . First, i think your description of ukrainian fatigue in your is overstated. We start from a different point of view but to answer your question , zelensky has taught a very good talk on reform issues overall including corruption. His appointments have largely been very good thus far. The appointments are his economic advisor, a clear reformer. The guy is now in charge of a behemoth Defense Industry company is ive are who did major reform work as minister of economy in the early poroshenko year. Another great source of corruption is customs. The new head of customs his former reformer. The guy whose name is the likely appropriate or general , also a reformer. The one appointment which has raised eyebrows, in a less friendly way is then his chief of staff, andre baghdan. Hes also a lawyerfor ukraines third richest man. President zelensky and not on this appointment from friends in the west and he has said i ampresident , im making policy. Baghdan is a competent guy,my policies are going to be reform policies. He won as i already said a decent majority and there are other reform party in the rocca. So he owns the reform issue and hell have to produce. Will he . I mean, we dont know. All indications in terms of personnel are good. We know that i have not gone down his parliamentary list with a microscope but theres some excellent names on this list and less than excellent names on this list. Its also true if the president of the country who has 73 percent popularity rating once even those less than positive names to vote the right way. He has a certainamount of influence. Last point. I know we mentioned it looks like the acting minister of finance is staying on, hes excellent. I thought all these folks, ive knownthem for years. They all believe that president zelensky is going to give them the opportunity to do what they want to do is to make major changes, otherwise they would not accept this. So we will have to wait and see, will have a better idea in six or 12 months butthe early augurys are not bad. Down here. Stephanie lawrence from the washington examiner, you mentioned that zelensky hadnt paid a lot ofattention to political and economic issues. Im wondering if theres a senseof what he will do. This is a very poor country. I was in an official election observer for this last parliamentary election and talk to many regular ukraines as i could and one of the number one complaints was their sons, their daughters, other relatives had to go abroad to work and i will say asking about zelensky, people tend to broadly fall into two camps on the whole and one was a good know what he was going to do what they said he was a patriot and they felt good about him and the other, people didnt know what he was going to do but they were resigned andfelt like he was going to end up like every other would be reformer. So i was wondering if you have a sense of what hes going to do about some of the other issues that face the ukraine and making it i think, making it much more prosperous while also giving security alot more strength. I think its safe to say that certainly a plurality of ukrainians think that theyre in a football situation. In other words, they want to feign disappointment because thats what happened in the case of you should goand poroshenko. But i am cautiously optimistic about zelensky and reform. I read that he means it, that explains hisappointments, what hes told people hes appointed. And i think there may be a competent decision because while he may be a competent man, whether he can be a successful president is another order of questions. But i believe hes in a position to do it. And i think were going to see some good things but again, we will know in eight or 10 months and if we see very little change, and his current 70 percent popularity rating will be 50 a year from now it will be 37. He doesnt know in the right direction. I think i see bob urich down there. Bob urich, atlantic council. You for an interesting presentation. I want to follow up on issues and your exchange with fran. I agree with you a large number of the personnel appointments that ive seen at least the ones that i know about are very encouraging. But i have to say i just saw a worrisome article last night in the key of post about judicial reform. Ill read the headline. Zelensky employs officials who will receive judicial reform, this is an article about the commission and is put together and supervise on this process and the gist of the article is theres reform minded people but an awful lot of people arecorrupt and a lot of people very unfortunate political connections and so on. There are a few names i recognized, most i dont know anything about so i cant judge whether this is overstated or not but im wondering whether you heard anythingfrom your friends and contacts in ukraine about the judicial reform issue in particular . Ive not seen this article, i have to get a look at it but i can say ive had many conversations specifically on. As president , in the ukraine, zelensky has special authority in the justice system, both on the courts and on the appropriate or Generals Office so there is impact would be direct, you just have to go through the rocca and i need to look into this. I saw someone with their hand up, right here. Mark david miller, trade advisor. Ambassador herbst, i raised this issue of the Morgan Williams group before the election. What effect has the maneuvering between russia and ukraine as or had on russian belarusian relations, both on the Lukashenko Putin level and what is the future of belarus sovereignty. Looking through the prism of whats going on in the ukraine today. Ukraine has been a complicating factor because he understands that ukraine not knuckle under to the kremlin and therefore he has not been as receptive to kremlin ideas as for example facing more troops especially along ukraines northern border with belarus. Theres also been what i would call indirect impact which is this. I mean, for sure since the rose revolution in november 2003 and then orange revolution in the fall of 2004, putin has been really, really focused on the notion of these revolutions from below. And so in the very occasional period of belarus where there are debt domestic disturbances. Moscow watches carefully and lukashenko understands that. Lukashenko before putin emerged as an authoritarian was correctly called the last dictator in europe so he had his own reasons for wanting to repress civil society. But he also wants better relationship with the west for whatever economic advantage and regime legitimacy advantage may come into it but also give him something to use to again, enable him enough to knuckle under to the kremlin. So the kremlin concern about holding revolutions which comes first and foremost from ukraine becomes a factor in encouraging lukashenko to be moreauthoritarian in dealing with his own domestic problems. Its interesting also we reimpose sanctions on the Senior Leadership in belarus for the last few months considering again there may be an opportunity to guide them to the west. I agree. Thank you very much and im delighted to see two graduates sitting right at the top of the stable. An excellent presentation. John, could you elaborate a little bit on your remarks about russian casualties and putins desire to keep this back from the russian people. What is the rough number of russians who been killed in ukraine as assumed from ukrainians and how many are there there now and is this something that happens on a daily basis, in which case how did the russian people find out aboutthese casualties . I dont have good numbers on the number of russian casualties. Certainly its in the hundreds, beyond that i would not say and i just dont know. We know that theyre called swiss cargo something, the special cargo to bring the remains on the russia. We know theyre buried in secret. We know that in the summer of 2014, one of the most popular organizations in russia was the mothers of russian soldiers because some of those mothers were talking about russian soldiers dying in donbas. They were made an illegal organization, they were outlawed. We know that family members who talk about their sons or brothers or whatever it is dying as onduty soldiers in ukraine are threatened. We know the reporters overwritten about this unpleasant circumstances. So its real. Its real. We also know that first of all, the fighting in donbas has not gone away. There are scores of fire incidents every day. There are ukrainian casualties most weeks and certainly every month there are several more ukrainian debtsincluding very recently. We dont have good information on the deaths on the otherside for reasons that are obvious. But it is true that there have been no major offenses. The last major offense is when the kremlin sees the baltimore after the incident was signed in 2015. We know that offensive as well as the offensive at the airport in the fall of 2014 were spearheaded by such loss. We also know that largely the order of battle, the way russians have done things recently the last several years is they are all over the place but generally speaking theyre not russian soldiers at the point likely to get incoming. Sothey tried to minimize casualties that way. John, to carry on your last statement we also know youve done a terrific job today. Just speaking to this group and the only thing i regret is we really didnt get a chance to spend more time talking about us policy towards ukraine, of course are subject was really ukraine and russia sothat means we need to invite you back. Maybe that should happen after the next 6 to 8 weeks when the potential meeting between these two television personalities, ukrainian and american an opportunity to meet and see where that relationship is headed. Rick, thank you and ill be happy to do that in case none of you have seen zelenskys program, see it. Its on netflix. Its at least colin, ive seen two or three episodes. Sometimes brilliant, worth watching andit will entertain you. I think please join me in giving you a round of applause. [inaudible conversation] tonight books about world war ii. Tuskegee airmen Terry Stewart across his life and experiences in combat. His book is soaring to glory. Then historian andrew norske examines military decisions of the allied andaxis powers in 1941. Later, a conversation on the book four hours of theory, the untold story of world war iis largest airborne incursion and the final push and nazi germany 8 pm eastern on cspan2. Saturday 8 pm eastern on lectures in history, female activists and the 1960s civil rights movement. While women were instrumental in helping to organize and put the march together, the events would purely dominated by men. Sunday at 4 30 p. M. Eastern the global significance of the declaration of independence during and after the american revolution. Multiple translations of our declaration also made their way to columbia, venezuela and ecuador over the course of the 50 year period after 1776. I have to century known to scholars as the age of revolutions. Eyewitness accounts from inside the white house during the apollo 11 lunar landing. We really stake ourselves into the cabinet room there and throughout the day you can see the windows were dark so you know, were in the nighttime module landed at 4 15 in afternoon the astronauts and not walk until later. Explore our nations path on American History tv every weekend on cspan3. This weekend on tv, saturday at 5 55 eastern, Warren Farrell discusses his book the boy crisis, why our boys are struggling and what we can do about it. Success is what makes boys feel and the girls feel that their life, they have friends, thats what prevents them from going into depression and when boys dont have that success, a 10 to go down the slippery slope of worstcase scenarios, moved to depression, anger, thrall, alienation and mass shooting. And eastern in her book pretty girl, disability rights activists need in a rusty knot who contracted polio as a baby talks about growing up with a disability. My mother told the women already talking at 60 months and walking on my own and i was never sick and never a fever until that fateful night when polio. It invaded our happy home and stole me from my family. This sunday at 9 pm eastern on after words, virginia democratic governor terrymcauliffe talks about his book beyond charlottesville, taking a stand against white nationalism. I think theres people that wow, the president came out and said this stuff, i can do and that emboldened them and thats why they felt comfortable coming to charlottesville. If he can say comfortably, so can i. People use to wear hoods and a use to do this at night. They dont think they have to wear anymore and in charlottesville they came out, this was their big Comingout Party and they got hurt badly in charlottesville. Watch book tv every weekend on cspan2. To back with peter canalis and were going to be talking about his story are americans falling out of love with their landmarks . Good morning. Guest good morning host tell me the story, why did you decide to write this article . Guest i was shocked when i heard about the persistent drop since the late 80s