Transcripts For CSPAN2 China Taiwan Tensions 20180222

From the Hudson Institute this is an hour and 20 minutes. A special welcome to those of you who are watching online into the viewers on cspan. I am seth cropsey. The senior fellow here at hudson. Welcome to our conference on chinas recent actions that aim to establish their own order in the Taiwan Strait. As you will hear in greater detail from our panel this morning china unilaterally changed the status quo in the first week of this year. The changes were made despite agreements between taiwan. And then again in 2015. These provided for mutual consultation to any change in aviation rates. This violation is part of a larger broader pattern of chinese provocation. For example the chinese Aircraft Carrier goes through the Taiwan Strait. One day after the aviation route changed since the taiwan president was inaugurated. They had circled taiwan nearly once a month. This is consistent with chinas policy that seeks to enjoy the benefits of an International World order for the purpose of replacing that world order of one of their own making. For example they ratified the un along during the administration of ronald reagan. The law of law of the sea treaty established territorial waters up to 24 miles from the states border. And an exclusive Economic Zone up to 200 miles distant from the states coast. They enjoy the benefit of the security that has been provided by this agreement as well as the distinction of ratifying the un convention. But the Sovereign Claims include the that is far beyond the un agreement of even the 200mile limit of the states exclusive Economic Zone. The selective participation in International Order is not restricted to military policy and actions in the world trade organizations for example is it an International Organization that encourages freetrade and provides a forum for resolution of trade disputes. China has china has been a member since 2001 and nevertheless beijing has controlled the Exchange Rate of the currency. In preserves the controlling interest of land Credit Energy and housing for example. In this case we are here to discuss the International System to be mined in the service but never at the expense of the Chinese Communist party control. The same distinctive chinese characteristics described in the violation of multiple agreements. It had have been reached with taiwan. As long as the political stars aligned with china to benefit the agreements were observed. When it served the interest to influence in favor the passage between the east and the South China Seas china decided to act unilaterally. The panel this morning is important because it looks in detail at the egregious example of the Chinese State consistent policy of shaping the International Status quo to achieve its own end. In this subject is important because it is a snapshot of chinas broad policy abide by the rules so as long as they suit you. In the u. S. Politician once said to me that he would stick with us as long as he could he was joking of course. China is not. It is the distinguished panel of experts. Their impressive qualifications are listed. In order of their presentation they will explain exactly what they did early in january. Peter is editor in chief in the from the china brief. He will be followed by a retired senior naval officer. Following an exceptional career in the navy is now Corporate Vice president at Huntington Ingalls industry. A look at what the u. S. Navy is doing in the region today. And how the current administrations policy in the west pacific is taking shape. In the secretary of defense for policy. It will conclude the formal presentation for the observations on the strategic consequences of the contemporary events in east asia. I will move over to my chair here. I would like to ask you. That will follow the pitiless remarks to wait until you are recognized. With the migration. With the organization in your name. Thank you. Welcome. Peter, all yours. A special thank you to the Hudson Institute for inviting me definitely the most junior on this panel is im looking forward to adding a little bit here to the broader context. The reason you find and my colleagues will be able to fill in for the holes that they are leaving. To declare this route but the end 503 some of the things that need to be taken into consideration are the fact that this is one of the busiest writs in east asia. Give a lot of that coming in and out of taiwan. And the proper island to the outline islands the action without consultation represents a very dangerous move this from a Public Safety perspective. But to understand the reasons why beijing has made these moves. You need to look at the last time there was a major negotiation on these routes. There were initially discussions between the two about the ritz. After they became president. Those discussions were canceled. There was an option with a discussion of these issues but that those avenues were essentially shut down. To turn to the reasons of why. To look at what is going on. The work report. There has been an important turnover in key positions responsible for taiwan. Rather than focusing on the specifics of what we need to focus on here what is pumping it to take stronger action. Both on of these issues but more broadly. The International Organizations. Wherever possible. And again important part of that context is the turn over on the political side of things. There are new people responsible with the leading organizations. Another Important Office is going to be in charge of taiwan related work. Well have a new leadership. There is turnover in the key leaders. Now that weve entered a new year. Is not surprise me that much. A more stern and being taken. To rollback the relations and a continuation of rolling back. Another action to restrict and essentially take away the agency. I know the consideration. That 2020 is not that far away but the election in 2016 was a major setback for the prc. For advancing its version of advancing policy. And so looking ahead to 2020. There will be a concerted effort by the prc to take actions which economically impacts people in taiwan and force them to question their governments with the larger the flights were being cancer. To prompt questions. About who is actually in charge. What will be the longer term another consideration is that they have also been very aggressive in promoting itself in being the future and the primary stakeholder. Both from economic perspective. Very aggressive in expanding the civilian aviation. From the Aviation Manufacturing companies to the invested of the future of growth and so this gives them additional leverage. Another consideration is the fact that following the current secretary general. From Different Levels the prc has a lot of different lovers it can pull to place pressure and reduce the way in which it can represent itself. Or push back against things like that unilateral declaration of these corridors. I will will turn over to my other colleagues. It is really important to consider the domestic prc situation when understanding why these actions had been taken. Thank you peter. I would like to just make a note of it. You may or may not have gotten the senior notes there. The Deputy Commander from the Central Command under general matus and also the commander of the navys and their fleet. The distinguished career only and what hes done but the positions that he has held. I just wanted to give you a little bit of context to begin with. About the posture that they have maintained in particular in this region. The seventh fleet has been in enduring presence in the western pacific since the end of world war ii. And we in fact have deployed or permanently stationed thing they actually are in japan and they are in the region. So there is a different construct in the agency when the ships from the east coast go to the middle east for example. And also the west coast ships that will work up and go through the pacific. Sometimes going to the middle east. But it is unique in that they have more deployed permanently stationed. Despite the discussion we never left. In the meaningful presence in the force all along. If you want to talk later about any questions about that. I will be happy to address them. The other piece that i think is important to remember. I will give you a Historic Context of some of the crisis had been involved in terms of the taiwan in particular. The first one that was a major significance was in the 50s in the mid 50s. I have always studied this the first actual use of the missile in september 1958 in the second taiwan crisis, if you will. Now, in the meantime this area is a vital and key for Economic Growth for the entire region and i would argue the entire world. During the vietnam era when we, the us, were involved in vietnam actually had stations you had yankee station which was up in the northern part off of North Vietnam and dixie station and we had continuous and very heavy Operational Presence during the 1960s into the 70s as a vietnam conflict evolved. The third taiwan crisis occurred in 1996 in which prc was launching missiles and this was in the early part of 96 prior to an election and there were missiles that were attention that in the president clinton the uss independence was the ford deployed Aircraft Carrier that was in japan and what president clinton and his and ministration did was brought us yet as limits in a modification of a deployment from the middle east and had to carrier battle groups as they were called then and this was the first time that the prc military look and said we dont have the capability and they were not able to respond to the military buildup that the Clinton Administration had brought in. There were two things happening in the 90s. Earlier, i think, they looked at the way that the Desert Storm Campaign was conducted in a very rapid and efficient conflict in terms of the tactical portion of it and then later in 96 when they were incapable of doing much about the fact that there were two carriers battle groups that were generated in operating off the coast. That, i believe, began the evolution in the journey in the prc military about weve got to do something about that and forced the incredible growth of the prc military capability and in particular with the Navy Building a lot of ships in creating capability now that can influence their region with their power protection capabilities, as well. So it summed up the situation well where the international set is advantageous and where its not in the dont we have and theres a concept of freedom of navigation and freedom of navigation is the principle that we do not accept a given nations claims so we will conduct, we, the us, since the early 80s has conducted freedom of navigation maneuvers in places where we dont accept particular claims and the obama initiation of this and the Trump Administration had suspended them for a portion and in 2017 intimate part of the year resumed them and we think we had one this year as well and basically its a contest of excessive claims. On the other hand theres innocent passage and innocent passage is a concept that says you can pass the territorial waters of another state if you accept or agree or comply with the Coastal Companies clients sold bills are the distinctions between the freedom of navigation exercises that you hear and innocent passage. With that i will wrap this up to say and if you have any questions i will be happy to address them. I will turn this over to the doctor. Thank you. Good morning. Ive heard about the recent flight of the chinese that they have taken over the Taiwan Strait and this is also the aggressive island expansion that reclamation and the conversion of this disputed islands in the east and south tennessee. And flights around taiwan and they all create a picture a key element of which that is china squeezing taiwan which is a violation of the spirit of the one china policy that both United States and china have pledged to uphold and we generally hear about the one china policy from chinese but its not just the United States that has obligations under that policy. China does also and the coercion, those coercive measures, violate chinas obligations. I think it is important to remind people of basics. I will make a broader point here that when we have alliances and partnerships in the world people who are experts in the field often take them for granted because the basic formulas are so wellknown to the people in the field but what is remarkable when you get to be a certain age is you look back and see that the things that are absolutely rudimentary in the view of some older people are brandnew for the younger people and if we dont regularly and often reaffirm some of these basic points about why we have these relationships and why we have alliances vendor alliances can become unreliable and it is incumbent on people who value these relationships, these longstanding relationships to remind over and over again the publics in both of the country that there really are solid grounds for the important relationships that have developed over decades. In the case of taiwan its important, i think, for americans to understand that taiwan is an open society and a democracy and a country of 23 Million People in it is not a dot on the map but a country that, i dont know exactly where you stand, but if it was a european country given the population it would be, i think, in the middle of the pack. It wouldnt be a smaller country in europe. It is an astonishing statistic and america is more or less tense trading partner in the world and maybe at nine or 11 and i dont know precisely at the moment but its around number ten when you think about 200 countries in the world and taiwan is our tenth trading partner and thats quite something. We have longstanding ties with taiwan and we are committed to taiwans defense and strategically because of this long commitment which add animal box highlighted the low back into into the eisenhower and truman years and because of that longstanding relationship our support for taiwans right is seen around the world as a sign as a measure of american credibility as a partner and ally. It is no small thing that the United States maintain and properly respect the relationship we have and are duties toward taiwan in upholding its defense. It is also important to point out that in addition to this other kind of squeezing that i referred to before taiwan is under constant cyber attack from china and so are we in this is an important area because of the advanced because of the advance economy is the port area where the nitrates and taiwan operate for mutual benefit. As important it is that the United States do what it should do to uphold this relationship and maintain our defense, our defenses in the region it is important that taiwan does what it is supposed to do and it seems to, i think, many of the experts who are focusing on the way the taiwanese are allocating their resources and dealing with defense but the taiwanese government is not doing everything it should be doing in the defense field. Its not spending what it should be spending and i think we, i made a pitch about the importance of the United States upholding the relationship but the taiwan government needs to hold the government relationship by picking sure its carrying an appropriate amount of weight in the defense relationship. And putting itself in a position where i can contribute to its own defense in our common defense interest. Now, chinas unilateral actions to change the legal status is the islands in the waters in the east in the South China Seas is a threat not only to the countrys immediate [inaudible] and i think the point about these chinese flights over the middle of the Taiwan Strait and the aggressive position the chinese have taken on the islands in the area and these are not just the taiwan issue but these go much beyond that and they are a threat, not only to taiwan and not a threat only to the countries immediately involved other than taiwan like japan, the philippines and they are a threat to the idea of an orderly state system that operates according to agreed rules. China has been acting as the established rules do not apply to it. Im aware that the United States often gets accused of thinking that rules do not apply to it. I hear that when i speak at universities and anytime one talks about other countries not obeying the rules and someone will inevitably say the United States thanks its exceptional and they think american exceptionalism means that the United States doesnt subject itself to International Rules that it wants to apply to others. I dont think that is basically correct. I think the us officials uphold the basic rules of the state system. The us officials are accustomed to living in a society with the rule of law and so they have no problem adhering to International Rules also and i think we generally do so. Top chinese officials, however, preside over and on free society. They operate above the law. The law for them is a tool of power not a constraint on the people in power and its not a constraint on the communist party and not a constraint on its most senior political officials and not constrained by their own domestic show disregard for their weaker species of obligation known as International Law and ive heard chinese scholars discuss the multiple sources of disdain for International Rules on the part of chinese leaders in one source, as i mentioned, is communist ideology that the party above the law there are also sources rooted in the powerful elements of chinese strategic culture and these elements encourage chauvinistic views that china should dominate rather than operate as a nation among nations that deserve equal respect for their sovereignty. Where are we with the Trump Administration . Well, the trumpet imagination is kept up a minimum level of engagement with taiwan we heard admiral fox make reference to suspension and then initiation of some freedom of navigation operations and the trump policy is i would it looks like it is just emerging now so it is early even though the demonstration has been around for a year there has been long delays in getting key positions built and so i think we are rather early in the administration when it comes to seeing where their policies are going to go. The key element of it, of course, is the us Defense Budget and an important point to make about this is people often talk about our commitment to a given area of the world with reference to the specific military resources that we have in that area of the world. That is i dont think a good way to look at it. The United States has one armed horse for the world. In so whether we happen to have a certain number of people deployed here or there is interesting but it is not necessarily the main point. The main point is what are the total capabilities that we have that we could bring to bear if we needed to because obviously our assets can be moved around. And so the big picture look at the us Defense Budget is crucial to understand whether we are serious about maintaining our commitments anywhere in the world in east asia or elsewhere. The us Defense Budget is going up, not going up as much as many people believe it needs do, if United States will fill all of its various obligations to its own interest into its alliances and partnerships. As i heard at home this morning when i picked this tie on, this time may have more ships on it in the u. S. Navy and that is a problem. [laughter] cyber subversion, economic coercion, territorial bowling, subversive influence are all challenges that china is posing to the United States in two taiwan into the whole region. In all of those areas taiwan has been a testing ground and a frontline and that should help us understand why this connection that we have with taiwan is important but as i said we should keep in mind that these challenges go far beyond taiwan and affect the whole question of whether we can have an orderly state system. Thank you, doug. Well, we have heard three excellent presentations and lets turn the mic over to the floor and if there are questions we will recognize. Abe, senior fellow in the South China Sea the chinese have made this claim of this Territorial Sea that has no has no basis in its inconsistent with the laws of the sea and their nine lines suggest that the sea itself is their territory as opposed to having rights in the sea because they control the nearby land is that essentially what theyre doing now in the Taiwan Straits and theyre trying to save the Taiwan Strait is a territorial water just like they said the choice South China Sea is or is it more subtle than that or have they not been clear or have they been poking around . They claim all of taiwan so even if well, that would be another question supposedly had taiwan we would regard that as International Water and and we would still have the freedom of navigation even to the Taiwan Strait if we were part of china, couldnt we . Its a big enough area but i think and im just wondering if this kind of similar to the South China Sea issue where they are trying to make a claim in a very good one way that they not only have rights over the sea that is near their land but they somehow have territory on the high seas that is just its as if he said the gulf of mexico is like ontario or like michigan, i suppose. We just said the gulf of mexico is our territory that would be similar to what they are doing in the South China Sea. Perhaps its more analogous to the east tennessee in terms of, like you said, claiming the sovereign ability to determine who gets to go there and while they havent enforced it they said. I think perhaps when we talked with the soft tennessee maybe we should talk credit from our perspective. They view it as being sensitive even if the actions the United States has taken is doing east apps or can close to some of their Creative Things theyre claiming that it is that they have additional rights. You. Its an interesting point that one of my colleagues made about the law of the sea treaty that the chinese should as party to the law of the sea treaty workout to question the status of these waters through the treaty. I have personally i am skeptical about important elements in the treaty. The treaty is has some very sensible and appealing aspects and it has, in my view, some deeply troubling aspects and the United States is not a party and they there are good reasons for that and its a matter of debate among, intense debate, even among sensible people in the United States but the fact is the chinese are a member, a party to the treaty and they are not doing what parties to the treaty are supposed to do concisely the questions abe, that you have raised. Whether waters are inland waters for all practical purposes or International Waters is an enormously significant question. It is precisely what the law of the sea treaty is supposed to deal with and if there are serious questions raised there are supposed to be resolved through the mechanism of the treaty. I would simply point out to the people who advocate in favor of the treaty and think it is a valuable text, or valuable as a that matter than i think it is i was a you want to defend the tree then you should be pressing to see that it works and to see that the chinese having become a party are using the mechanisms of the treaty to resolve these questions of what constitutes International Waters or not and if it doesnt it cheapens the whole treaty. Another point, a, if you go simply by the treaty itself the continuous zone and the sovereign zone of taiwan and china extend the 4 miles out over a hundred mile area leaves 52 miles in the middle and so i think based on, for example, the chinese action in the fiery cross in the [inaudible] which are hundreds of miles beyond the exclusive Economic Zone that it is, safe to assume that they will claim that little 52mile band is theres. Other questions . Please, wait for the microphone. My question is addressed to admiral fox. Follow up with the previous question on the Taiwan Strait you think us should declare it as a claim or declare it Taiwan Strait as an International Waters and operate operations in the Taiwan Strait and also we heard that this area of the sea is very rough so it is not, i dont like to know your experience in that area, is it chinas capability, each lady is it developed, far enough to present and prevent the us from intervening in the case of an attack or invasion or blockade to buy one . Thank you. Taiwan strait is 100 miles ish so by definition by International Law there is International Water and air space between taiwan and mainland china. There is no declaration on the part of the United States. Its an interesting contradiction because china has signed the law of the sea treaty but doesnt observe it in the United States observes the law of the sea treaty but we have not find it so there is that interesting contradiction there but the us and the u. S. Navy under the law of the sea treaty even though we are not signatories to it. The question about that a 280 this is called preparation for contingencies and warfare and it goes back a long, long time. It is not a new concept to either deny an adversary access to a particular battle space or region and so people there for potential conflict take that into account and what you do is you never leave your job, you always find a way to accomplish your mission when you go after your opponents weaknesses and protect your own. The quote a two a. D. , i always look at these as professional military and retired professional military and i dont do that anymore but i always look at these lines on the water and some people go this is the line of death and if you go inside you can operate. But it is not so and so you figure out how to do it and you obviously are thoughtful and think a lot of different ways to create, maneuver room and Operational Capability that give you the opportunity to accomplish your mission question in the front row. Good morning. Neil with Global Vision three occasions. This is a question for the entire panel. We expand a little more on the term policy towards taiwan . It seems within the last year he has not been pulled in to constructs, many of which harken back to world war ii and is willing to make changes, some very abruptly like moving jerusalem as the capital of israel and so are we going to see changes to our policy here and do you think and related is how set in stone do you believe our pledge to defend taiwan is if something were to happen militarily in the region . Thank you. Well, speculating about what the Trump Administration is going to do, id like to leave my colleagues. [laughter] my guess is that as doug pointed out its evolving in the answer isnt there yet. It has taken a while to get into key policy people in place, both the state in the Defense Department and when they are in place i think will have a better ability to answer your question but until then it looks to me as though the administrations primary concern in east asia is north korea. That is where the plants are directed in the for the public statements go and that is not only from the president but from the secretary of state and friends so aside from arms sales which administration got off to a good start on i think it is as the popular and overused phrase goes a work in progress. I guess the one thing i say is that mr. Trump, as a candidate, made a number of pretty strong in harsh statements about americas allies and partners and criticized them generally as free riders and made them hundre United States and around the world question whether he was committed to those Longstanding Alliance in Partnership Arrangements or whether he was going to offend all of them in asia, nato and around the world. That created a lot of vegetati vegetation. Since he has become president the rest of his remarks he has made a number of remarks, not all of which hit the same thing but hes made a number of remarks but the rest of his remarks has been to reaffirm these longstanding relationships and to uphold alliances and partnerships and so i think that is significant. That doesnt contradict the points that we have made that it is early but things could go in any number of directions but in general it is interesting to note that he has not, as president , then as radical on the question of meaning on our allies and partners. He has continued to lean on them and interestingly enough they responded i try to be fairminded about this but they have responded in general with increasing their defense expenditures as he said they should. Thats an interesting reaction and he seems to have shaken things up. And american president s over the decade have complained that this argument that our allies and partners are free riding and its not something that the trump invented. On the contrary, and evergreen complaint of america officials going back decades but the general view of our allies was that it wasnt serious and that there were not going to be consequences for continued to be viewed as free riders. And so, when mr. Trump said it he managed to achieve credibility for himself as someone who really would upset the apple cart if this problem were not mitigated and there has been some litigation with certain allies and partners increasing their spending which, i guess, is to the credit of what he said. On the other hand you have this question of is he undermining confidence in our word and i think he has tended as president to try to increase confidence by downplaying some of the more radical statements he made about our alliances. At the moment it looks like we are basically on the path to reaffirming the importance of these alliances while he is trying to meeting pressure on all of these various allies and partners to increase their contribution to the common defense. I just pulled out, as we were going through this, the summary of the National Defense strategy that was just issued and i think general mattis, senator matus, probably personally robust. I recognize his penmanship here quote china is a strategic competitor using predatory economics to intimidate its neighbors on militarizing features in the South China Sea. China is leveraging in modern predatory economics to course neighboring countries to reorder the end of Pacific Region to their advantage. When you go through this its the National Defense strategy and even going back to the document that the executive branch put out in december there is this and then there is this documents that hold together in a way that we are going through our National Strategic reviews and posturing our Defense Strategy and its of note and encouragement, certainly, at the very end of this thing were talking about alliances and partnerships and strengthening alliances and attracting new partners and ensuring that we maintain favorable regional balances of power in the end of pacific and thats the term of the general mattis is using. The military department to be prepared is always present regardless of the administration. You think through how are we going to do this. At the end of the day, the smart person does not want to go to war and at the same time the best way to prevent conflict is to be prepared for it and that is the clearest way to deter horrible consequences is to be prepared in that way. Give me a choice between parsing time and studying and whats figuring out what is going on i will always try to figure out whats going on in [inaudible] high. I think it is worthwhile examining as others have done the appointments that trump is made to various important security positions that are the problem that people like Matt Pottinger who are more asia focused and that is clearly, as i say, i also believe this week there is a few us senators who are visiting taiwan so to me i dont get a whole lot out of the paint but what kind of meetings are happening and those are the things i wouldnt think of as a more important indicator but there is a lot of back and forth and change their mind and the public statements do matter not nearly as much but like mark said the National Security strategy in the National Defense strategy those are two things you can hang your hat on but also the payments. That will give us a lot longer term value in terms of figure out what is going on. Sir. Japanese newspaper. Thank you. As you know, the chinese official armed vessels are coming into the water to [inaudible] in east tennessee and they come three times a month and cruise around in the japanese water for two hours and that creates concern on the part of the japanese that they might soon land on the island or occupy so could anyone address this chinese move toward the island in the context of chinas overall strategy opposing taiwan if theres any direct linkage . I will start and pass it off to my colleagues. Its a pattern of activity that we have seen and a continuous. If you can ever reach the point where a greatest behavior becomes accepted then somehow it has become accepted and people become numb to it and i think it is something that needs to be a source of concern and to be a source of focus. Need to be able to understand those kinds of activities, the actions they are honestly driven by somebody making a decision to do that and how do we now return point we are able to influence from a policy level and start saying stop doing that. Its not an accident and not a coincidence when it happens in a repetitive fashion. One of the things i have watched is the data that the Japanese Ministry defense is put out especially since 2013 as the number of intercepts that is made with chinese aircraft in increasingly also we have seen periods where there is a Chinese Military aircraft in the area and also Chinese Naval vessels in an area and at the same time going through International Waters and working there, like you said, and recently we have a Nuclear Class submarine being forced to service near the waters and i think we should take it for granted that they are diesel submarines which is based in [inaudible] they should not be operating in the stairs. When you theyre going out to see. Secondly and we should have a look at the broader pattern of activity and it would be to taiwan use to publish a numbers about this and the numbers of aircraft that were being intercepted and they made a decision to stop doing that but there is three white papers that presented and had the data and if you look at it it is quite astounding. I took that data and looked at the trend and if it continued on on the upward trajectory that he was on the last published this information we would see something around 2000 flights, i think, to the centerline in taiwan a year and of course that is interpreting it and looking forward but it would behoove taiwan to reconsider issuing that kind of data again. The fact that japan has decided to release this information and it is a baseline. To my knowledge vietnam was the philippines and no other nation puts out information like that but i think we want to see how china is ratcheting up its military flights or like i said militarized like coast guard vessels and to channel [inaudible] in here but the Maritime Militia is something that we know from these open the sensors aboard the ships that there are Fishing Vessels that are going and near other territorial claims and a lot of these are associated with actual official chinese Maritime Militia. People daily, former president of the academy of military science and in beijing that was a talking about the Maritime Militia and other scientific vessels all of these vessels, not just coast guard, Maritime Militia and maybe all of them together are an important part of turning it into a strong maritime nation so we cant juse things as being separate. They view them as part of a larger hole so it proves us not to just look at you said the more overt but we look at the Fishing Vessels as well. And also to address your question and the question that proceeded although it is not possible to tell what this actually means but i believe the president has already said that the islands are deputies and determining what the consequence of that is we will wait to see but that is a positive state. You have another question, sir . Tired field officer. I wonder if members of the panel would like to address the history of the port of call by the u. S. Navy particularly in light of chinese officials remarks about this being a marker down the relationship. I dont at my fingertips have last time there was u. S. Navy port call in taiwan. I am aware of the expressed concern on the part of the chinese administration, if you will, that that is a third rail. Of course, the evolution from the truman eyes of hauser era and the watershed event was obviously from kissinger and nixon went to china in the early 70s and i think that there has been this hope and assumption that by engaging china over the last 35 ish or however many years that we are drying them back into this business of being a responsible member in the International Community and i think its a personal opinion now you see their activities of being very aggressive and changing tomography in building island and thats the thing and its probably time to consider that they are not interested necessarily in of being a productive member of International Community and they had their own worldview and so as i was doing some of the research in preparation for this that we put at 86 with brandnew site wonders in taiwan 1958 and they worked well for the first time. Its been an evolution obviously in the defense support to be able to provide the taiwan military the ability to defend themselves is something that also, i think, is important for us to consider so that there is not an important ability to course and forced in a negative outcome. I would add one small thing to that. Theres an assumption whatever comes to us port of call that is essentially we need to approve the u. S. Navy to go there and it can happen. There are other considerations that i think deserve to be mentioned like what is the time when he sighed and theres actual concern among the taiwanese whether or not they can support the facilities to accommodate the us so thats another conversation we need to have in parallel. If this will happen longer term then there are facilities that need to be built and the ports cant accommodate larger us vessels. Again, not necessarily an insurmountable barrier but another thing that needs to happen as parallel to our efforts. To go forward. We shouldnt assume this is a national turnkey that we can make the law and and it will happen next year. There are other things going on. Truth be told, lets be honest, court visits of naval puzzles around the world its a Diplomatic Initiative in a means and in fact secretary mattis and his counterpart in vietnam are going to have an Aircraft Carrier pulling on bay in a long long time for the first time. There are other ways to transmit that and its a diplomatic decision to do so. Admiral, question regarding chinas use of limited for techniques and techniques to avoid strong retaliatory actions against United States and can you discuss what levels of deterrence the United States can use to counter those type of actions whether its in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea and what can the United States and that we do to [inaudible] right. Great question and it is something that i think the seventh fleet commander all think about. In a broad sense, you want to prevent miscalculation and prevent escalation of tensions and yet on the one hand the pla and in the chinese activities have been Fiscal Authority and without getting into ships bumping into each other there has to be a means by which there are conversations between leaders that prevent those conditions from happening and that is the ideal situation. You can go back and we had the incidences at the agreement with the soviets back in the early 70s because we were in this place where review of the u. S. Navy as having literally there were ships that were bumping into each other and there were these Fiscal Authority and a lot of opportunity for miscalculation and we sat down with the soviets in the early 70s it was when john warner was secretary of the navy and hammered out this incident at sea agreements. I think there is one place where there should be conversations to say as people with gray hair and grandchildren i dont want us to have conflict china. I really dont. At the same time we must not be coerced or pushed and so the rias and the ability to prevent them from pushing aggressive and talkative actions and not being held accountable and not having the modified behavior this is the essence of both statement ship and seamanship, if you will. There are a number and theres a wide spectrum of Different Things you can do but our response, for example, we did freedom of navigation because you dont recognize these claims and so we have, you can go back to ep three incident of 2001 when these aggressive maneuvers and airplanes intercepting and this is a place for grownups in the adult to sit down and make sure that we create a construct where we can operate in International Waters and do our operations without escalating into either miscalculation or conflict. I would add one point. When you talk about a deterrence strategy its a noteworthy point that we now have in our Defense Strategy as edible fox just read that a term that is new and deserves attention more attention than it has gotten i think in the General Press and that the term in the pacific it slips and but it represents a serious thought in World Affairs in one of the most interesting points about strategy is how ones conception of security is related to maps and the idea isolation isolationism, for example, promoted by the fact that americans when they look at a map are looking at the United States and there are these big blue patches on either side and nothing else and then you got canada and mexico and blue. That gives you the impression that we are okay. But it is depending on how you look at the world and what is the center of the map you are looking at. You can have a completely different conception of what the strategic picture is and now, just recently, i dont and i havent done a study on who coined the term or where it first entered into the lexicon but this term in the pacific is really important because its a strategic concept that, i am sure it relates partly to the rise of china, but it also relates partly to the recognition that the United States now has enormous strategic ties and potential strategic ties of great importance, not only to south korea and japan but coming all the way around to india and our strategic conception is related to our relationships and then of course in the center of that art is china and its a way of looking at the world that you didnt get much discussion of until quite recently and you see it in the administrations National Security strategy and National Defense strategy documents and it is worth noting that its a new way of thinking about the grandest, strategic challenges that we are facing. Thank you very much. From the term information for liberty. Id like to know from the to see which panel that, i guess, we have seen some kind of increase in the aggressiveness of chinese geopolitics under the presidency and now we have this very case here that is happened recently and how to use the military capabilities of taiwan if they are doing something to actually act independently from the United States because i have read a book from ten years ago but it was a very analysis of taiwans capabilities and it said that they would never be a conventional invasion of china to taiwan because it would just be too costly to the cost is too high because taiwans capabilities are too strong. I was doubtful about that and i thought maybe the reason for the autism was that he was married to a taiwanese. [laughter] i was doubtful about that and it seems to optimistic for me and i would like to know your opinion on that. First of all, the distances involved even though its only a hundred miles wide thats a long way to go in previous assault. It is not a simple problem and heres what i think is happening and kind of back to the hybrid and the gray activities, cyber infiltration i think the strategy really is to withdraw or to sap the will to resist or be able to defend with a kind of Thoughtful Campaign of dry rot atrophy we can do this militarily its a difficult problem in its hard and for most of taiwan is a big island and a 3 Million People when we, the us, were contemplating invading japan at the end of over two it was a really hard and we had a lot of Good Practice in the years running up to it. I think in amphibious military aspect of an Amphibious Assault against the island of taiwan its militarily feasible and really hard and i think it would be very costly. Then this gets into the risk reward how much is it worth and its much better probably to work in a different way and more indirect and i think we see a number of these things and if you dont have some credible military capability then your diplomats lose traction. They work together. You dont just do one or the other and theres a lot of discussion that you will see here nowadays about our fleet is not enough that we need to build bigger steps and theres been an era in which we have allowed the u. S. Navy has reached a point where it doesnt have enough ships in the maintenance hasnt been done and weve had tragic incidences in the western pacific and so there is a new sharp focus on the fact that you need credible military capability to be able to influence events around the world. You see that kind of talk in the renaissance within the department of the navy and department of defense but back to the question of how hard at not is taiwan to crack for in the previous assault it is hard, it is military feasibly but a costly effort in my opinion. Weve been tracking the chinese modernization started in 2015 closely and a few things are worth highlighting. First of all, the plas selfassessment. People like dennis have written about this extensively that essentially the pla doesnt regard itself as being there yet and they have set these goals for themselves and originally it was 2020 and then 2049 and the latter one of these moved up to 2035 and theyre doing trying to do enormous things in the uncompressed time and its chaotic. You have two phases, [inaudible] below the neck and above the neck and they reorganized other major units of the other commands that come out but this is been on the individual level a chaotic and theres no one knows which offices report which ones and the training is all out of whack and you have that officer level you people who are in charge of a regimen and then there charged with the prograde in this massive change in levels of responsibility and that will take them a while to adapt to and they are either blunt about it and this is something they have to overcome. They are also striving to achieve the Networks High warfare that we have for your sensors and everything like that and everyone can talk to each other. Theyre also not there yet. They will have military exercises where missile batteries can tell the good guys and the bad guys apart so while it is tempting to look at the modernization and say they made this progress and they have especially since 2004 pla or after 2004 in for two Different Things but that is simply they arent there yet and they dont think they are there yet and like to build on what mark is saying they dont have the dubious capacity and if they started to build it then it would be very obvious taiwan would have a lot of time to prepare but it is worth noting that this is a country in the early 2000s was planning on building small, little ship cruise missiles and now theyre Building Four of the largest cruisers simultaneously so enormous industrial capacity certainly could get there and we need to make Smart Investments and what it needs to achieve our mission in terms of the force and things like that but also not there yet. [inaudible] there making Smart Investments on how to adapt to changing points. They also it all to be pointed out that taiwans navy is a solid and professional one in a good sailors and good officers and taiwan, as you may no, is in the process of designing and building indigenous submarines and one may succeed in accomplishing that and how that improve their defenses will substantially for an Amphibious Assault in all kinds of things that can be do the summering that is one of the things that would fly specifically in this case. It deserves the United States support. Other questions . Well, we are right on target and id like to thank you for joining us this morning. It was a useful and interesting discussion and your questions have been excellent and thank you, panel for your wonderful answers. Cut back this will not be our last discussion of this issue and hope you will stay to join us for the next one. Thank you. Tonight booktv is in prime time with a look at military biographies. Retired lieutenant daniel boulder interviews former defense secretary chuck hagel and his brother, tom, for the focus of his book are year of war. Retired Us Army Captain talks on his book eight seconds of courage. World war ii veteran jerry yellen calls his Bombing Mission over japan in his book the last Fighter Pilot and max is interviewed on his book, the road not taken. But to be in prime time tonight on cspan2. Sunday night on after words tara talks about growing up with survivalist parents in the idaho mountains in her book educated a memoir. She is interviewed by author and journalist susanna. A lot of people seem to have taken to heart this idea that to learn something you have to have a degree you have to have a whole institution in place to teach it to you. I am grateful to my parents that i was not raised to think that so i decided i wanted to go to college when i was 16 it felt like something i could do, not because i had formal education but because i need to learn algebra and i will buy a book and i will learn it and i didnt do an amazing job. I barely got into the university but i kept going to that and i think, yeah, my parents took it too far. I arrived at the university underprepared and i once raised my hand in the class and asked what the holocaust was i had never heard of it. They thought i was denying it and i wasnt that i never heard it before. I wouldnt say this is right deal education and i would not say that. Watch after words sunday night at 9 00 p. M. Eastern on cspan2. Join us saturday at 9 30 eastern on American History tv on cspan3 at the American Civil War museum in richmond, virginia. The live coverage of the civil wars impact on americans. Speakers include peter carmichael, director of Gettysburg College of civil war institute, james robinson, author of the unbootable work, jean scholz, author of women at the front, and amy taylor, author of the divided family in civil war america. At apm on lectures of history from the Georgetown University law center guest speaker thomas west talks about his book the political theory of the american founding. In a republican form of government namely consent of the governed, elections virtue is needed in more than any other form of government because in a republic the people themselves the rules. Sunday at 4 00 p. M. On beale america the 1956 film a city decides about the Historic Court decision brown the board of education. All i know is that our school there are some kids that dont like colored people. Some dont like white people either. The individual accounts and how will you get to know a person unless you meet them. For the Supreme Court ruled that segregation was illegal these children were ready. At 6 00 p. M. On american artifacts we looked at the selection of Clifford Berrymans political cartoons from the early 20th century. Clifford berryman continue to draw for the washington evening star the next 42 years and almost daily on some pages of paper and prominently placed he has quite an illustrious career. Watch American History tv every weekend on cspan3 on cspan3. You can spend this weekend with the nations governors at their annual winter meeting coverage throughout the day saturday includes talk about jobs, the opioid crisis, as well as the future of agriculture and food availability. Cspans live coverage starts saturday at 10 00 a. M. Eastern. Watch again on sunday when the topics will be education, care for veterans, Economic Development and the future of work. That is live all day on cspan. Now a conversation on what conservatism means to millennials and younger americans and their view of the trump presidency. This is from washington journal. Live this morning at the conservative Political Action Conference Getting Underway in the maryland suburbs and on your screen is the director of campus outreach at the Leadership Institute. Tell us about your organization and the Leadership Institute and whatur is your purpose at sea bk this week . Absolutely. Where a nonpartisan, Nonprofit Organization whose main