Good morning everyone and welcome to the foundation for defense of democracies. My name is kim yojong and Senior Vice President for research and it is terrific to see so many familiar faces in the room. We are looking forward to our time the event this morning as we address the syrian impasse and how does this impact washington policy . We are lucky to have experts in the field with us today. I will keep it short so we can jump right in. First a few housekeeping items through todays event is being livestreamed and video recorded and it is also being broadcast on cspan so i encourage guests in the audience in attendance and viewing at home to join in on the conversation via twitter. Please feel free to comment as we go along and we will try to address those comments. This is the time or ask you to shut your cell phones down. We dont want or our guests to be interrupted as they engage in this conversation and now i am very pleased to hand over the conversation to my colleagues a research analyst. This is her first moderated event and we are very pleased to have you do this. Take it away. Thank you and thank you all for coming. Three weeks ago the turkish Army Launched an operation across the border in Northern Syria into region. Turkey is there fighting the group which is also the u. S. s partner in syria fighting isis. Can everybody hear me . Ypj is partnering with United States elsewhere in the fight against isis and there are all sorts of complications for turkey and the u. S. In general. We have three great panelists here with us today to talk about this and im going to briefly introduce them. Aliza marcus is the author of lead and believe the turkish fight for independence. Shes a wellknown expert on the Kurdish National movement. Then we have gonul tol the director of the center for turkish studies and is an adjunct professor at gw here in d. C. And then we have Amberin Zaman one of the best journalists from turkey who currently writes for the turkish turkish and i in strongly encourage you to follow her. With that i want to start the conversation and i want to first ask you part of the problem with the afghan operation and what we have been hearing here is that turkey says its fighting the ypj because the ypj poses the number one Security Threat and an existential threat to turkey and its saying that because the ypj is an offshoot of the pkk which is the kurdish insurgency group that has been fighting inside the turkish state for the last several decades. You know the Kurdish Movement while and you know the Kurdish Movement in syria as well as the pkk and given the discourse here between turkey saying the pkk and ypj are worn the same and therefore cooperation with the ypj amounts to cooperation with the pkk and yet the United States over the last three years say they are different enough that they can keep working with the ypj and also tell turkey that it will aid to turkeys fight against the pkk so its a very complex pusher picture and its a conundrum for the turks and the americans and i was hoping you might be old to walk us through. Thats a great question and of course everything you say can exist and be true and at the same time be somewhat nuanced simultaneously. Lets just look first at the ypj and given all the different acronyms the dominant kurdish organization in syria right now. Clearly this is something if you go back into the pkks literature and talk to them ypj was formed as a subsidiary as an affiliate of the pkk with. What was formed the idea of what is the pkk was no longer going to be the soul vanguard of the Kurdish Movement in the region so each part of the kurdish region would have its own part that would operate to bring democracy and autonomy and gender freedom and other things along erdogans lines but they were part of the pkk nonetheless. An important distinction and what the u. S. Is focused on is the fact that in syria the ypj this dominant player offers according to the specific conditions of syria. They have autonomy. They make their decisions based on whats good at the moment. They train their people in syria. They are focused on syria so i dont think obviously this nuance is not a prelude to turkey but nonetheless its important when looking at the ypj. The same time the operations of this organization in syria have not been counter in the military way against turkey. There have been attacks on turkey from syrian territory. They tried to keep over the past few years their commanders in syria. So the problem is for the United States later on is by denying any link and something thats necessary for u. S. Policy of makes it difficult for the u. S. To acknowledge some of turkeys concerns and try to explain why the ypj is not a threat not that i would necessarily calm the situation. When we look at the ypj mp y. G. They are operating for the situation in syria. Thank you for that. Theres a legal distinction between the United States lists the pkk in that little nuance. Let me turn to some good news for a minute. This is very much a war and operations carried out in syria but turkey is under a state of emergency. Also the restrictions on the media and Civil Society is growing and is fierce. Already more than 500 people have been arrested in turkey for speaking out. What is the view in turkey and what are the turkish governments objectives here with their offensive . I think a large section of Turkey Society is the main driver of turkeys incursion. The referendum is vulnerability and he wants to boost his popularity. He wanted to tap in the strong antikurdish and antiamerican sentiment in the country. The opposition for the kurdish hdp is behind and supports the operation. Im not sure what they accomplish but i believe its 80 according to Public Opinion polls 80 of Turkish Society supports the operation. So i think the main driver was policies. The antikurdish and antiamerican sentiments are very important and they feed each other. We can talk about in detail the new dynamics in terms of turkey and the kurdish sentiment. We want to tap into those and basically boost his popularity. Its as much against the as a big is against the u. S. And the governments narrative so that proclaimed aim was to break the corporation between the u. S. And the ypj and to say it had nothing to do with the ypj. We are there to disrupt this relationship between the u. S. And the ypj. That makes the situation very complicated and im sure we will touch on the complications on the ground. The antiamericanism that we have seen now is much more widespread. Turkey what we have seen now is the apap the military have all found Common Ground in something and that is the antikurdish and antiamericanism. What makes it difficult is the tension between turkey and the u. S. And i think its also a potential for dastard disaster. The domestic concern became the back bone. To follow up with that and its selfexplanatory from turkeys point of view but i wonder why is it taking place now . Is there a reason to control the nationalism and antiamericanism and antikurdish sentiment . The war is helping consolidate that is explained and im curious if there are specific reasons. Because the elections are coming up and the possibility of early elections. I think that explains the operation. Also there are other reasons as well. Until now russians controlled the troops and the skies. What caused the russian green light is the decision to stay longer in syria. That is something that makes the iranians and the russians really nervous. It both weakens the ypj and indirectly u. S. Influence and oppose complex area. Also in the fact russians call the shots and caution against ties with the United States. This is what russia had in mind. I ran recently urged operations but for them america is willing to stay longer and we work closely with the ypj. I think the timing has something to do both with domestic elections and also the russian concerns and the change in russian strategy. For those of you who may not know turkish politics where referring to the president ial elections and the elections before the new constitution will take effect in turkey which will make it more of a legal case where they want to get into the geopolitical concerns that you mention. We have now madison tillerson heading to turkey having talks with the turkish counterparts. There hasnt been a strong condemnation from the United States or concern voiced about this operation but the u. S. Is working with the ypj and more broadly with this group sds in syria and was recently indicated that it was planning to have a longer presence there. Its only allies are the sps which are primarily made up of the ypj. Is this a conundrum for the u. S. In syria and also how is the ypj it reacting to this . First of all the United States biggest concern and we heard from the state department and trump articulated how it might be undermining the isis campaign in syria. Also concern articulated about the high civilian casualties obviously mounting as the operation continues. Yes united the United States is very concerned. But at the same time it also said it is not part of their implements as it were. They are not really in a position to convene. Because they disagree with that view and they feel the United States should he doing much more to end its campaign and the United States on the one hand expresses concern has not said stop. There are kergers anxieties about the commitment of the United States to their security. As for you know the United States saying well secretary tillerson said recently they are going to be staying on for a number of reasons and my colleagues just ran through some of them. I think saying that but not matching that with any real action and specifically what we just countered a rainy and influence of course again raises questions. That puts them in a very difficult position because by presenting them as allies in its i ran against the regime without permitting the resources for doing any of that really makes them extremely vulnerable. In fact we are not just talking anymore about turkish and u. S. Conflict of interest here but increasingly the americans sort of i guess beginning to knock their heads against each other, the battle lines drawing closer and closer into that area. So yeah its getting extremely sticky and they think that the russians are playing a very sort of finally calibrated game of turning that on and off for the turks. Unfortunately what we are beginning to witness is the more the are perceived as allies of the United States and part of this alleged efforts to get rid of assad we see more and more of the russians allowing more turkish aggression against the ypj. One of the reports that came out of the sds went turkeys operation began was they believe this was happening because russia had offered the ypj offering to strike a deal with assad for local autonomy and they had rejected it. It was in reference to the ypj and it looks like russia might be trying to split the Kurdish Movement in syria. I think the russians are trying to do several things at the same time. No one handed like to see the regime established control. This whole offering thing is part of data we have seen it happen already but not on the scale obviously when russia was dangling the turkish bogeyman. This is a replay of that but on a far bigger scale. I think we also tend to underestimate the degree to which russias relations with turkey and syria serve as russias own security. The president s of all these fighters and the fact that in the 2000 in the 90s these people found a haven in turkey. I think its incredibly important for russia to be able to cooperate with turkey to try to contain this threat. There is that aspect of this which in turn puts russia at odds with the regime and with i ran. I dont believe the regime or i ran are terribly happy about this turkish incursion and they are moving further south. From the regimes point of view that further into the territory with the help of the rebels which aligned itself with the regime. So its getting incredibly complicated. Its important to thats why Turkish Security concerns are important for russia. Its important for russia to have representatives or is it more of portland to have turkey because in the last round of meetings after turkey started the operations there was a bit of talk whether the were going to be invited or whether they were not and after turkeys operations began the conclusion was that they werent invited. Seemed like turkey bargain for it. I have heard from journalists that the people who are close to why pd where they are. At the end of the day russia would like to see them at the table. They dont include the pyd in the political process. I dont know what the sense of the deal was between russia and turkey. Maybe the understanding was that the russians would give a green light to turkish incursions and that would boost assads popularity so they could swallow the fact that the pew i. D. Or the political process could be done. Certainly this came as somewhat of a shock and they said we dont want to take part in whats happening with turkey but i think they have always sort of seen russia being a little more accommodating but the u. S. Which has never wanted to bring the man is a formal partner despite the ypj. The United States and russia are planning for some sort of a settlement to the sevenyear conflict. How do we settle the question of the war situation. Both of these including the in some sort of a settlement is absolutely necessary. I want to ask you about their relationship with the United States in the historically and since the beginning of the war and im curious what kind of a settlement to you think would best accommodate the interests . Im not as optimistic as you are that there are plans for real settlement in syria. Let me just put it out, im not optimistic. I think luck the p. Y. Dcom a ypj and various structures that are trying to make clear that they want in some form or another to be able to control their territory. They talk in terms about democracy and gender equality and they have been compared with other groups and countries in the region that have done quite well. They would like. This is something they would not back down easily from. They do want to see their institutions disbanded and they dont want to see their military force disbanded. They see this as their final protection and the u. S. Inability to take a clear stand on this is another message to the Kurdish Movement that it ultimately needs to rely on itself if they cant rely on other countries for security. The thing is of course the kurds kurds, the control of the territory depends quite a bit on american support. They came to a decision for the u. S. To withdraw that support. There are many different areas where battles could break out so its important for the kurds to try to maintain this obviously and keep the u. S. Find them. But for the kurds in syria and the pkk and for instance and turkey is very important at the time in the pkk is squeezed inside of turkey when operations of the Political Movement in turkey and the military movement movement, Kurdish Movement in turkey have been really put under pressure. Politicians arrested, municipalities taken over, pretty much any sort of kurdish or for that matter democratic expressions are same as a crime now and reason to detain. The pkk has shown again and again is whats happening in deroche above. To explain some of its ability to operate in turkey right now. If you recall were colin 2015 the pkk launched war in the city in southeast turkey. This led to turkish counterattacks in large parts of different cities in southeastern turkey that led to a number of deaths. Their way of explaining it was we had to have this because we were concerned there was going to be a turkish to turn it away. That is a great concern. Harkening back to a couple years ago because turkeys relationship with the pkk has changed in relation to one another. Just a few years ago turkey was in the Peace Process with the pkk and you mentioned from the pkk point of view that with turkey and their point of view they have been unnerved over some years that syria along the Turkish Border will debut the rise of kurdish politics. Has that affected has that affected the process with the pkk . Absolutely. Yes the whole arab spring came during just as turkey relaunched Peace Process with the Upper Echelon then you saw the kurds gaining ground with the assistance of the United States and that creeped out the government regardless of who was in power but this was difficult reaction whenever they see the kurds gaining influence across their border with the perceived help of the west that takes him straight back. It is a total panic so there was a special demand made by turkey frankly that was impossible for the pkk and ypg to accept for the regime change alongside the rebels. So turkey and the pkk that turns into 212 ypg so we did not see a single constitutional reform passed to instill any degree of competence to encourage them to think whatever they did with actually yield any concrete results with the longrunning demand for political autonomy. Et cetera. That is the short answer to your question. What happened with the syrian conflict . It also talks about the nationalism. It is a huge factor to change turkey nationalism. So even 2002 with the nationalism that it paid less attention to the identities of the turkish this and the ideology. That partly explains why this is one factor in why he embraced the turkish and that is why he had a different mindset. At the time in 2003 those that were very anti american and he was the only actor that promoted the identity so that defensive nationalist in inward looking. But now they are all on the same page so that is the good news. So what happened in syria with the rise of ypg with the impact of turkish politics so to always explain with ypg and syria that is concerning. Mentioning the predominantly kurdish Political Party and in parliament for those that have been in jail and the government peace talks fail so also getting 13 in the election so we year and a half after the event so this is after that the Turkish Society as we describe that right now. Think they became a victim of it. I think they have become a non actor and that is just impacted by that transformation. If he were to continue with the Peace Process with erdogan but ironically it hurt him electorally to strengthen those nationalist opposition i dont think the decision he made was indexed to any election there were much bigger elections for him. Plus we talk about elections in this tone so i think the big question now before us is will they be . So if we just judge by what unfolded with the irregularity that was documented, depending on how desperate to hold onto power he may carry that activity even further to the extent to win the kurdish votes really isnt that great of a factor in his calculation. That future trajectory will very much inform how erdogan approaches the kurdish issue as well. Given where we are now . That is optimistic the only instance i could imagine a return to the Peace Process is where erdogan regards it as vital. What are the chances for a clash between turkey and the United States is not a remote or a real possibility . They said so many times publicly that it will be very difficult but of course with those turkish officials but for turkey to walk back something tangible as a security door for what he was thinking so they are not promising anything. Or to make it easier to push the ypg to withdraw and that is difficult because of the strategy in syria and to play a role in syria so that only hurts the feelings of ypg so if they ask or push and that is the deterrence but of course then there is the question there is the other option but that is a breaking point i believe. So the idea for turkey so go ahead but the other side of the argument it will be very difficult for him. I agree with everything it would be hard for erdogan to walk back his rhetoric. He controls media in the conversation and he can come up with a new line. Most likely it would be like setting up security across the border but i do think if he could come up with another game than he can rationalize and he is very good at that. But the United States promised once liberated ypg word fallback in the local administration would be removed and that is not what happened. I had the opportunity to see some of that firsthand. But the question of the possibility between turkey and the United States i dont believe United States whatever attack a nato ally or turkey whatever open fire on its ally of the United States that is inconceivable. Although it is more than the redline and the messaging from the United States dont do anything unilaterally. Or do something without consulting us. There has been a number of threats coming from officials. I think it is possible but if you remember the operation would and after and it never did. But you are right. This is different so this is the key what turkey is doing in syria is important in its context. Even just with the military and right now that hasnt proven to be a very simple operation for the Turkish Military agent not want to be humiliated. Thats true. That is why the operation pushe pushes. That would be very unwise. But with the arab majority dont forget that. And the ypg is prepared to leave with turkey . I dont know. But they will be talking about that. As a kurdish woman this is very difficult on the one hand with the political allies but looking at the civilians it is very difficult but for me mr. Erdogan it is very simple. He makes a clean operation. I just want to mention that. [inaudible] what should the kurds do . Or what should their position be . Thats all. Also do you think because of the cooperation with the relationship of the United States . Yes. Civilians are killed that is one of the main reason people are so horrified. But obviously it is hard to say not about the kurdish demonstrations in germany with the Iraqi Kurdistan so unfortunately there isnt any clear answer but to the pkk and ypg to maintain that relationship that the kurds could hold on and then in turn that was the vanguard for the kurds in the u. S. Need each other but the ypg would not be any reason to change that position being willing to be the lead fighter against isis to stop the infiltration so what sort of negotiations will go on for this impossible situation but ypg made it clear firmly on the side of the United States. Wearing their hat. Yes. I think on the relationship of ypg with the Iranian Regime , how do you assess those with evidence of collaboration or tolerance or that they asked the Syrian Regime to lay off a little bit . And also the last comment but i noticed early in the operation there was a comment to kick the americans out was that the lone voice . Obviously with the relations they have always been complicated and shifting to have the Affiliate Party that sometimes fights and sometimes does not fight depending on whatever issues are going on with other countries in the region. So it is similar how the u. S. Could separate the pkk from the ypg but they are struggling to separate its own ongoing dialogue so the goals with whatever demands or interest. What the Kurdish Movement has always been good at and trying to stay those goals to provide security and autonomy it will focus on that and not try to be diverted by other issues. [inaudible] that is the perfect scenario because the regime allowed ypg in the east and recently with that turkish convoy so i think what the regime likes to do is to show how complicated the relationship is or maybe russia doesnt have that much leverage so i do think that has happened as part of the solution then the Iranian Forces for what they were trying to do their asking them to support the ypg they would like to see the ypg that is why iran is constantly shifting because the regime turns a blind eye then ypg gets too close and they are anxious about that. They change their tune. To make the question about the election is that if people in government circles they have been asking the government to close down. This is the leverage is turkey has over washington. That was the first point of turkey relations. Allow them to use that air base but i dont the he will do that. And that is very important. I am an intern here at the program. Can you comment on the situation that the context of how that has the surge of that intense political environment to go along with that . Also think of the narrative to be built around the operatio operation. It is a difficult question with a Huge Population to support erdogan to those who dont support what is happening so break it down to those people who want to be active and are interested in the Democratic Movement clearly. Just speaking out to criticize , i personally know many other people who have left the countr country. There is a change occurring. A peaceful change. My students were 19 and 20 years old. They are opinionated but they dont know much. They just know erdogan. But what i can say about the change to have those interests among other things is that you were in fewer see any complications inside turkey. So what i hear very often is to say i hope to keep the country destroyed so we can go our own way that much easier than america will come to liberate. That is what they are thinking and to go back to the university. It is important but even more important now. So with the institution with those ethnic ties it is very dangerous. My question is for the entire panel. What about the insurgents with the referendum from iraq if any . I will start. From the referendum and the refusal to back somehow or act on behalf of the iraqi kurds, i think they take a lesson to trust in themselves really. But for the pkk that is a longstanding understanding. I dont think they think that differently from iraq he kurdistan but with the insurgency you could argue based on their experiences you thought they would be more successful with the urban battles launched and of course that proved not to be true. I am not sure that they learn anything back but now ypg is very experienced getting training and support from the americans which is more than they can learn on the ground. So to have those urban battles the pkk has moved back to classic real warfare and that doesnt match with the terrain in syria. But what they have realized they estimate underestimated the degree that turkey is prepared to crush them compared to the urban battles. Exactly. Messenger for security policy. This could be a good summary question for the panel. As we are looking at turkey with senior officials most recently the foreign minister talking about the invasion as g hard against the kurds and perhaps as much as one year ago we heard a senior official talk about reestablishing a dominance over the ottoman territory in the balkans. We know the Party Erdogan is aligned closely with hamas the Palestinian Branch of the Muslim Brotherhood and they are directly working with u. S. Muslim brotherhood in this country. So to what extent strategically are we looking at something larger . Perhaps the reemergence of the ottoman jihadist state and turkey . I would begin to agree with all of that. I dont never recall them talking about g hard against the kurds but he would say it is against the terrorist meaning the pkk and by the way trade relations with israel are booming. So with those relations with egypt and with the saudis but now there is tension and tension with the gulf countries with iran officially with those turkish troops although they have become close partners in syria that is when more people were on the agenda. Of course the problem of turkey with the opposition and concerns coming out of the United States with turkeys actions and they are all over the region so it isnt that clear. With that they have those groups from afghanistan. Yes. There are problems and the reason why we called the panel is not as having a choice with the nato allies but also yes. With that question in the back. My question is directed as you mentioned iran as a player in syria with the u. S. Effort to be concentrating with syrian conflict . That is a hard question. But this is just one thing that they support to have that presence in iraq. And then to support the regime so they are destitute. So with iraq United States has formal relations with the government and they consider them to be a very close ally but United States has no formal ties and that makes everything a lot more complicated to exercise influence even if that is to help the kurds. How do you do that in the absence of a relationship of this horrible regime . I know there are a lot of political aerials to determine if this is terrorist or not like the pkk is one the other is not but how the groups fight is the target civilians are there any justifications through that angle . And they both be terrorist groups or neither . When the pkk was formally coming out after 911 there were a lot of reasons and turkey saw them as a terrorist group with those allies who felt they were facing terrorism. Whether the pkk target you have to look historically there were times when civilians were killed. They werent always civilians or Village Guards to fight against them were accidentally killed along the way. But for Turkey Police have been targeted and civilians have died whether the pkk was targeting them or not and the organization took up the urban centers so they deserve to be on a terrorism list so to imagine that they could remove the pkk and for why pg obviously a different body targeting those turkish civilians inside area although the british oppositional argue those will argue to give examples those that were on thoughtfully arrested or sentenced to exile. That really hasnt concerned the United States but they need to consider that distinction. Setting aside the label of the fact is that turkey has a big problem with the current and at some point they came to that realization and are talking to the pkk and some point they will have to do that again. If they want turkey to prosper with a full fledged democracy. Im getting the signal we need to end. Thank you for coming. [applause] [inaudible conversations]