Commemorating the fifth anniversary of super storm sandy which obviously affected a large part of the eastern seaboard. And i was reporting as it struck in my research became my third book super storm. I was looking at how it was we had gotten super storm sandy so wrong that new york had failed to the issue evacuation orders and so many buildings and key pieces of infrastructure were flooded and destroyed. To spend time at the National Hurricane center those who are incredibly talented told me the same thing over and over we are just not very good at this still at forecasting storms. And we saw that in 2017 with Hurricane Maria and hurricane hugo. And to respond to disaster for all that is powerful so if you think of that sheer explosive power earthquakes are exponentially smaller so how do we prepare for those as a nation are we prepared for that . When you think about a hurricane we have a lot of technology we can use so the International Guard that are directly into a storm to drop the with the wind speed or the barometric pressure. We have satellite and with this technology we can try to predict the path of a hurricane. And yet we still see that profound devastation like houston in puerto rico so with all of that being said hurricanes are a nobrainer compared to earthquakes and that became quickly abundant to me the least known natural disasters to know that interworking then those distant galaxies. While i was researching this book they had the analogy to know more about this than earthquakes like dark matter or quasars. Anything we know more about. If you think about it but this year alone we had 107 earthquakes deemed as significant. Most of those who have not heard about because they happen in places like pakistan or the canary islands. But every day there are thousands. But we dont know when or where. There are 2100 known faults known faults in the United States according to the usgs to those there are between maybe 1000 we have not discovered yet. Every single earthquake has occurred on the fault we did not know about prior. We know the zones like San Andreas Fault but the actual fault that is happening there we dont know know about it thats not necessarily because west of the mississippi is predisposed but we have done more research. So think about earthquake potential. We dont know anything about that. But to be five or 30 miles under the earth we dont know when or where they will happen. So they remain this unknown phenomenon. But we do know the United States site is active enough potential happens just about everywhere. Unless you live in miami you are probably at risk for an earthquake. Tomorrow or 500 years we dont know but we do know the potential is there. So i wanted to set out on the classic american road trip to get an idea of the real potential. And then be ultimately resilien resilient. There were some obvious places i knew i needed to get to like San Andreas Fault zone and we do know the closest thing the Southern California we will see a major earthquake in our lifetime is entirely possible. The Pacific Northwest is primed for a major earthquake with a resulting tsunami to do a lot of devastation. Also salt lake Salt Lake City is poised. But like memphis or new york city so a lot of my research was going to these places to try to understand the threat. So i have one section of the book i spent quite a bit of time in memphis that you may be aware in 1811 or 1812 but it made the Mississippi River flow backwards in the liberty bell crack. Those are not true but one of the strongest earthquakes in history happened in his new in this follows the Mississippi River is ready for a series of powerful quakes. This is bad news if you like barbecue or blues for the country also and the interNational System. Something you may not be aware of the overwhelming majority it happens through memphis. 40 of trucking has one single bridge in memphis. 4million packages come in and out of the airport every night they have their headquarters there if you want a really exciting night and a night on the tarmac to watch 300 airplanes come in from the airplane all over the world they stack them up to land back to back they put the packages in the matrix and or redistributed onto new planes and sent out again. So for a place like that to go down basically there would be us and still in commerce. There is contracts, mortgages, your amazon order that of getting your books at the independent bookstore but then two of the largest contractors of the u. S. Military and u. S. Post office. Medicine, car parts, military equipment or even beluga whales are flying through this have every single night. Did you take into account things like the Mississippi River like grain or petroleum one of the most fragile systems memphis going down doesnt just affect memphis it affects all of us that is why when fema designated for the most catastrophic in memphis it was with this Ripple Effect so interested in how this could be if it happened. And if you think about infrastructure we need to ask the questions about that. The American Society of Civil Engineers gives a report card for infrastructure we average between ed. D. And d. Over decades we have chosen to invest in things other than natural infrastructure. I think about the literal infrastructure airports and railways and levees and also the metaphoric bully is important. Like the sunol me Warning System we have underfunded these historically we have these deficits and i live in the state of maine and we can half ago we had a windstorm. 400,000 people lost power. Largely because dealing with a 19 century wires hanging on poles assuming everything will be fine. We no longer have those systems in place. To see that catastrophic result. And to call attention to do that and has kept up with our natural environment. With the last major earthquake was the world series of quake and it was catastrophic to be this awful pancake of the bridge. With those devastating images it was not so long ago in 1989. As a collective memory after 30 years have passed. So to consistently underestimate the risk. But if you think of new york city to witness a moderate earthquake going back five or 600 years. In the last moderate quake is using the historical precedent that one could say that new york city is about 40 years overdue for a moderate earthquake. But based on those historical averages it is true. That moderate earthquake will create more rubble than september 11. It isnt necessarily the high rises. That prevents First Responders from getting places because the gas lines have been ruptured that is the scenario to think through we are finding new faults all the time and scary places so we need to ask questions and what we want to do to mitigate. One thing that was a real surprise is the way that judging the face of the geological hazard in the way we understand risk. And to be the human endowed induced earthquake in Oklahoma City that used to be one of the least seismically active that is now the most in the lower 48. But that the overwhelming majority is caused as wastewater injection due to fracking. With a High Pressure water and solvents create these little fractures in the rock to withdraw gas without water that they have injected so they bring this wastewater up it either sits in those settling pools or like oklahoma that it is reinjected into the High Pressure wells. For those that were primed to go up have that added pressure to go up. Now those floors quakes are getting bigger and bigger. So now not only is it a daily problem to deal with those shallow earthquakes that sound like bombs going off. She was a survivor of nuremberg and he five the korean war and it was left terrifying into sit on their patio for three hours hearing these explosions. They do minimal damage they crack the foundation or knock the plates out of your cabinet but it is so startling as a sound it is now the Environmental Justice issue. As they grow and we see larger threats. But what other the flabbergasted me is how many ways we can set up earthquakes. So in addition to fracking or wastewater injection that we are really good at setting off earthquakes when the hoover dam was built when the reservoir field behind it he set off 10000 just by filling that reservoir. He set them off through mining or tunnel building. With these deeper wells and also that infrastructure to hold up. But then we know even less. What do we do . Over and over talking to seismologist her First Responders this is what they want me to tell you now. But as a nation there is so much that we can do to outline the degree to assess a assess the risk. As a nation we have invested tens of millions of dollars in earthquake prediction. To put those devices down into the fault zone so far we have been mostly unsuccessful we will never predict earthquakes. But there are other things we can do. When the mexico quake occurred 2017 mexico did a couple of things. Happening on the anniversary that killed thousands of people after that happened the nation instituted a National System every year on the anniversary it undertakes major drill and they practice what to do so in those hours prior to the 2017 earthquake, mexicans were practicing what to do. They knew what to do. They also instituted a detection early Warning System. After the mexico quake happened people had 45 seconds to prepare. That doesnt sound like much time and i was skeptical but and california berkeley which is developing our early Warning System if you think about it, and 30 seconds you can grab a gold bag, your infant daughter, get under a table, diver a plane about to land, i kid in the classroom take cover and it could be the difference between life and death. I hope this will spark us to ask questions what can we do to prepare for the inevitable next earthquake . We know we have a major earthquake we should all be acting as this is possible so there are some very simple things we should be doing for any natural disaster. When the power went out in maine most people didnt have water or a weeks worth of food even though we should know that is an entirely likely and aerial. Having a go bag or a plan most of us rely on Cell Phone Technology for communication right now. That will be the first thing that goes. I dont even know my most loved ones self on numbers by heart. So god for bid i didnt have my phone i couldnt call those people who are important to me plus i dont know where to find a landline. To know where we can meet or what we can do is really important. How can we be a Resilient Society . One of the towns i focus on is in washington state. It is a economically modest town. He writes in the zone for a tsunami. A major one that looks like 2011 that devastated japan with fukushima disaster. So knowing that in this very modest town with 8 million then to build a tsunami sheltering station at the top of their grade school because they could keep all the kids in their district safe. It is incredibly sophisticated system high walls and enough food for all of the kids for two weeks. And the kids drill over and over they can get all of the kids in this district in the sheltering system and 27 seconds. What is the likelihood it will happen . No. But they decided the risk was worth it. It is a testament to the generosity of the spirit that when a disaster happens to show up with that First Responder with that benefit concert. We donate teddy bears and blood but consistently underestimate the power of natural disaster. Looking at that biggest threat the average american will tell you either Nuclear Disaster or terrorist attack. Both of those are unlikely. But because we lack that imagination that is what we need to focus on. To house the potential and then to invest in that technology to understand what causes them and to have the technology to institute a Warning System. Considering second world countries to make these a priority that we dont have to necessarily have these catastrophic disasters to do the work on the front and. So investing in these love these in the better bridge system and then it helped commerce we are changing everything. And then we need to create the infrastructure to respond to those changes. I also hang out with those who are quirky and interesting and weird. And with those iconic places like the hoover dam like the movies san andreas. With that catastrophic failure. And the Colorado River causing mayhem and they said it is impossible that would happen you cannot do this. Because they had script approval they could say you are not allowed to film this year. Really . Why. Maybe with the movie transformers the mega robot to say mass of robots here to destroy the planet and in our infinite wisdom see this robot who comes to take over the planet. Created the hoover dam to house the megatron. They got this approval to film at the hoover dam. So he will let this scenario go . They said we find that is a more plausible scenario. We dont need to be terrified. To be the most misguided superhero but the more she drinks and then the larger earthquake she can set off. With a comic commentator so look at things like that so the understanding of how they function. And then to move forward to think about this of resiliency and where we go from here. So i was the two answer questions or your earthquake story for any national disaster. Thanks for coming. [applause] [inaudible] [inaudible] [inaudible] but something happens what do i have to do with that . They dont look at the geography of a map. This whole issue of liability to equate that moral hazard to cause people to think harder and longer and that is the quickest way to create a regime to prevent bad behavior. It is a great question and it is complicated. They do have ordinances now that say you cannot build within so many feet within a known false. At least 100 feet away. Most of the faults are unknown though. So damage as the human induced earthquake . For those that try to push through that to hold them accountable for the damage that was done. So where the earthquake occurs is not necessarily where that human activity was so looking at a salt mine in utah where we store radioactive waste. But the earthquakes werent happening there was a Ripple Effect. So this idea of culpability and liability but it is an interesting point. That is a difficult question. And they successfully stop that to say it was built without real understanding of that seismic potential of the famous dm and california ten billiondollar national disaster. We tried to push through and say we will not do this but test case by test case basis. About 20 miles north of new york city one of the most beleaguered powerplants it was built unbeknownst to those who built it. That experts say capable between sevenpoint oh and eightpoint oh earthquake to do damage that houses the reactor. So could this result in the mandatory evacuation of new york city . Because it is so beleaguered for the fukushima retrofit there is supposed to be one of those most beleaguered powerplants to get you up to snuff. So with liability i dont know but it is responsibility and that is important to consider. As a planet continues to change and sea levels rise and induce places that did not have it before we have to face difficult questions. If you live in a place that just became a flood zone that was never one before, what do you do . Do you move or say i have to get Flood Insurance . Do you mandate that . This is a hard question. Some see her looking at their city to washington this sunday are going to relocate their entire community. The environmental refugees they are asking questions that come with emotional repercussions as well. And if anybody has figured out the answer but at the household and Community Level as well. What is happening in terms of planning ahead . You are right some states are not a surprise that one positive thing with every passing earthquake whether schools are performance of hospitals to institute more and more building codes are they enough . Many say no what is interesting about building codes did exist the people can safely exit the building to get out of live it isnt to make it habitable after a disaster. People think it is built to code it will survive. Probably not yes what we will see is tens of thousands who are homeless because they got out but they cant get back in. Some said yes we do because no with the city of memphis looked at it and said we want much stricter building codes here . It would be expensive they decided that costbenefit analysis did not work out. Will we invest in something that may or may not happen . Who will pay for it . Do we want National Codes or structures . I want a robust non me monitoring system. I want devices in the faults area and the National EarlyWarning System. Right now looking at crowdsourcing if you have a cell phone there is a great function that goes portrait or landscape that can record jostling distinguishing between you dropping your phone or experiencing an earthquake. There are apps in beta testing where if you are willing to have the app installed on your phone. It can record these earthquakes so it is a crowd sourced early Warning System. This is smart maybe not los angeles but may be new york city who doesnt have that system. And they can give people those 45 seconds. It is brilliant especially like nepal that is earthquake prone they have six seismometers in the entire country with 10 million cell phones. So with this technology is pretty inexpensive you get bang for your back. That is what i would like to see. Really going backwards. And with that delinquency we have seen in terms of investment that is the legislation i would like to see. Thank you so much we have learned more keep up the wonderful work. [applause] today those homes sell at 300,000. And rented apartments in the city did not gain 300,000 in equity that the white families did and today they are unaffordable. In 1947 it was twice the National Median income. Today they sell seven times middleclass families cannot afford to move to the suburbs. So today, nationwide we have a ratio of income it is 60 of white income. Most families gained their wealth there is the enormous difference between 60 income ratio and 5 wealth ratio almost entirely attributable to unconstitutional federal housing policy practice through the 50s. So the wealth gap is attributable. B5. [inaudible conversations] hello everyone