Good morning ladies and gentlemen play from the executive director thinks to this special briefing in the international indications over the past will for 13 days some serious and significant changes have been taken in the kingdom of saudi arabia and some political analysts. Hundreds if not thousands of articles and interviews conducted about the significance of these defense even some with longterm implications thereof regional implications for the kingdom countries that have extensive interest in this special relationship all the lead has been a couple of weeks with that Level Analysis and reporting were questions raised the and answered during this period of the need to read these here that would keep this year until next friday but just for the purpose in the sake of the of a discussion so some of those questions raised starting in early november included the following letter about the of roundup that we witnessed is a really the Anticorruption Campaign . Is he be paid recklessly or a genuine a genuine revolution was a the domestic implications with this crackdown we have witnessed over the 12 for 13 days in the back specifically of the governments process in general with several of the of rabil family and particularly of the religious establishments are they marginalized even empire tuesday arrest there were large number of religious establishments so when we look back at this period how would that be affected by these steps . As one of the colleague said is the of the kingdom of saudi arabia transforming . Did the verge of saudi millionaire sir billionaires . Is this the saudi arabia from the domestic reaction now end in the future to this campaign . And definitely we need to touch on the International Implications so to help us answer these questions we invited to a dear friends who are well informed about these developments and those of you who were following up on twitter or otherwise to cd significant and substantive and wise comments worldwide not justin said arabia. What me introduce both of them at this time then we will give them the floor to proceed the first speaker is a Saudi Arabian journalist end of there and does not need an introduction if youre following the media serving as a correspondent bin that Deputy Editor in chief so that is a key figure in the middle east much as seven arabia. Earlier in his career the friendship going back 25 years. With a Foreign Correspondent with algeria, lebanon, and all of these developments with the rise of islamism to become a wellknown expert on this issue. He worked in in washington for a while as a Media Consultant to the embassy in saudi arabia particularly in working with the embassador during that period. With Many Networks decide that includes channels like a bbc in to many others. Our next speaker is the middle east fellow at the Baker Institute and also we are delighted choosing to make the trip from houston and then working at the Baker Institute with International Relations and research if you are not familiar with those goals states which is certainly very relevant to those elements of which we are exhibiting today. And with those military challenges before that as a senior golf analyst for strategic studies between 2006 and 2008 and with development governments and globalization in those goals states between 2008 bin 2013 he holds a doctorate in history from cambridge. Each speaker will speak between 12 and 15 minutes then spend the balance of our time and giving a chance to engage directly through your questions of the late trade to a the cards are meant for you to write your questions in question are coded racial card then we could direct your questions to the right speaker. Rate legibly make it short so we can accommodate as many as possible and not know if we have enough copies but we do have the most recent report based don the agenda at of the conference that we just held it is about trump in the arab world written by the staff and analyst and available feel free to give us a call and we would be more than glad to send it to you. At this time our speaker will come to the podium. Thankyou. I called for everything theyre doing right now. We all wanted to be free from radical islam everyone did that corruption it is no secret. We see it and feel it. So what do we dividend of him to do . Because he does things the wrong way. So in those volumes for example, on the verge of corruption i think fed people are supportive of it. But they dont think your question in dont discuss those decisions for two reasons. There are people who choose to stay in their homes. So the environment in saudi arabia with that this course for the future. Also with the euphoria and i would say most unwanted disciplined with bad news. And for example, yes we should own it. With that power play with corruption. We need to all that corruption for us to move into the future. We would never succeed without a true fight. Settos speculate i will announce my support and i do think universalitys should support that. But at the same time of a bite to see a debate about that it would be a the power play but to have that immediate effect for those that have to endure 40,000 employees. Maybe nobody is there to sign the checks. [laughter] but the government will sort that out. But longterm it is good. Deadly succeed with saudi arabia is with a broad economy but i did think he has to distinguish they are the ones who did the price of the contracts and Good Business that is enough and the billions. But not going through congress overrode the governor as a token that value will increase at 3 billion of course, in the interview he met with bloomberg. Between 2010 and 2014 when billion dollars every year with what youve described with corruption with 400 billion were talking 01 trillion dollars. You call that taxpayer money that is our money so well in those lavish houses in paris and los angeles but he needs to. But at the same time what about those cooperate with corporations . Or others . I wish they would do Something Like you do here in america with from the corporation is the go to the company and then end up with a settlement with a few billions but not to destroy those companies because if the investor loses trust and then to introduce Saudia Arabia to the world for the opportunity for investments so foreigners are having second thoughts so business in egypt it took the egyptians and syrians to reinvest back into their country because trust is important and that is not coming from saudi arabia and with the Financial Times that the government is negotiating and protecting 50 percent of their work force that has to be seen we dont know yet. Where he would clean the house where he is the master of everything . Use of money . But have course to the that democratic side is much better we dont have much to raise. Key will be the leader for setting arabia for another 50 years considering the acts factor maybe even make it more than 50 years so believing we could do that his success is our success cancer arabia continue . It would be aggressive with the epidemic unemployment the other serious thing and then would demand this futuristic city in the north in the north of my home town to show them what they promised. Speaking about fatah Million People all unemployment in the economy like when you pulled the lever. But then 75 thats its not natural a the ordinary economy. And then fix the economy but if he insists the of new cities i hope he will change course and start with the peoples jobs rather than build new cities and then right now of two failed cities and with that financial city did you could see that beautiful city in the middle of riyadh. Minnelli have to find a solution. It is partially working finding jobs is a solution the with my time in discussing Foreign Policy but unfortunately the iranians but did is a pillar of stability in the region was the that happens in the territories with exhibitionism with political islam with the political father of islam. Id without relativism and standout thank you very much. [applause] and now offer our second speaker. Thank sorry the introduction and. We will not reiterate what he has presented but i will add my own thoughts on some of the changes that have been interpreted to those varying degrees of power plays to sweep away of the old saudi state. Sova glading that 70 arabia we have known after King Abdullah and that is slipping away we are seeing a passing of the old guard in part because of Natural Causes and those key figures with the crown prince in the interior minister and then the minister for years sinking of gillettes best way 2015 in addition to his duties as keeping the heading the National Guard for the years. Sova i accidentally and design the old guard has passed and a lot of the commentary over the past 10 days is focused on the sweeping away of the checks and balances to be saudia policymaking so good is true those competing factions with that influence of those key decisions with the degree of consensus that policymaking was slow but if it involved the family isnt Society Nothing constitutionally mandated so this rose to have those powerful figures within the royal family remaining in position for decades to create the networks of power that was impossible to ignore. So removal of that checks and balances has happened before clicking came to power to take advantage where the old constraints exist. listen to the extent described in the media but a power grab through june 2017 when mohammed became the crown prince we should all take note five years ago in raleigh gaged guessing who was the next generation of leadership nobody would have picked anybody on the horizon of that time so we have a listen of humility there so now we can see that to be engaged to remaking that saudi arabia he wants to roll if things go well. With the passing of the old guard in the accelerated way the there eased into the position and a man putting his own people up in charge to recreate those networks to obliterate from that generation in what is popular among the u. S. What is a populist issue those that could be cut out to a feeling they have a fair chance with that prospect to get a decent job because of those various issues. They will probably support the changes there is no way to know to what extent their popular art or not in those educated elite that has studied at universities and have gone back to proclaim the magnitude of those changes that there is a lot of people in it is vital we dont lose sight to focus too closely as saudi arabia has been much more than that. I do you share the concerns about raising expectations the fed is the key problem so the promise of saudi arabia in the future is similar fluid saudi arabia and with those very early signs and the change into reality is proving more difficult in practice inherently involving the degree of suspected interest with the saudi economy that will require more than just a plan that is cooked up so far with those initial expectatiexpectati ons our tempered because they are so farfetched but the challenges he owns the of process if he gets the right he will secure the kingdom those other in the 70s or 80s or 90s he will face the day of reckoning in 20 or 30 or 40 years with those challenges that can no longer be ignored with Domestic Energy consumption increasing so rapidly that can no longer export 6 million per day. If it goes i could go very badly wrong indeed. From what i can tell a lot of the messaging that is accompanied over the past two years it is unnecessarily the saudis who are still looking for the basic improvement in their daily life prospect. I think we saw that not just in the future Investment Initiative three weeks ago, but even this week when we had to miss the global form when bill gates said a key speaker is trying to pitch a new saudi arabia to the international community. To some extent has been successful. My concern is the actions over the past two weeks reinforce the stereotype view of the kingdom that people from the outside may just hold of it. That makes me wonder what may have happened behind the scenes to explain the timing of the action. Is it just a miscalculation that they may have thought sending a tough message on corruption would entice investors by promising the new saudi arabia is a freer place to do business . If that was the case thats not the message thats been received. Although the military operations in yemen and the train embargo was show miscalculations have been happening longterm Strategic Thinking needs to be improved. The topdown leadership and decision to focus on the International Audiences something that needs to change. Sooner rather than later the crown prince and his team will need to show meaningful results to convince saudis of all parts of the kingdom their own lives are going to be transformed for the better. This will be by which they will be judged. Over the next decades, this will probably determine whether the new saudi state, the fourth state, is more sustainable in the long run the one were seeing being swept way before our eyes. This is indeed the moment of transformation a sense that the institutional structures that for decades we thought were solidified because they were entrenched are now in play. Now theres a moment to remake institutions and recreate leadership structures. It will be fascinating to see if this moment of change also solidifies as is the predecessor has done into another that might be prohibitive to change along the line. There is a lot of talk about him becoming defense minister at the age of 59. But he died at the age of 80. The system has opened up contrary to the expectations of analyst, its secretive events not coordinated but is it going to close around and be important to longterm change is the passes as well. With that, i will take questions. [applause] if you have a question you can raise your cardio will pick it up from you. Let me start reading your question. The first one, a prominent business persons are among the detainee in the saudi arabia. 100 billiondollar correction. Theyve invested billions of dollars in economic and Agricultural Products the north and east of africa. How with a crackdown effect the projects globally . Then they began having a conversation with me about the chairman has about 40000 employees in saudi arabia. Most of them he has also huge business in morocco and sweden. We can start doing a plan about others and about potential will be added to the list of corruption. I just had a friend in the audience, rumors are spreading like crazy. We get all kind of news about adding the list. Corruption is a way of life. They have now in his hand a magic stick. This hardly could be one who is involved in some form of corruption. What is corruption saudi arabia . Is a landgrant corruption . Landgrab corruption. They are involved in both, landgrant by the king which make it legal. We could argue about it. And landgrab. The stick of corruption is reachable to everybody and that scaring almost everyone and they feel like i am next. The quick fix is trust. So far they havent given an interview to anybody. They need to do that. I think something every few days. This is absolutely vital, as he said. Establishing a new royal decree headed by the crown prince who would define what corruption means to him is unnecessarily going to reinsure international investors. The process will be important whether or not investors how do you propose how they should address the Muslim Brotherhood presence in the country . I think the muslim brothers saudi arabia is an islamic country and he cannot run from that. Yes radicalism crept into saudi arabia by an attempt to but they came back in 1979. The Muslim Brotherhood provided the answer in the 1960s. They are relative contribution to saudi arabia. And how much they need to themselves and need to form with them suspension is in the region. As a total unneeded confrontation were going through. Is spreading the society and its weakening saudi arabia. This question from mark from chevron. With reference to employees saudi citizens can study families and culture accept their sons and daughters working in bluecollar jobs . Yes. Economy will change happy. We always used to do everything. I also told the stories about my generation of my fathers generation. My father was a farmer, it he used to a job that gets you dirty. After 1973 war and with the price of of oil doubling we had a huge boom. We made the mistake of they said it was only we need them to build infrastructure and then eventually go. They never went, we become addicted to it and it not only took the jobs away it killed the culture and now are all distinctively assume we can do the work because we are addicted to it. This is the big test, he needs to spend more time on it rather than building a new city in the north. Thank you. This is not the first missile fired on tort saudi arabia territory. Why wasnt widely publicized this time . It wasnt the first, may have been the first targeting or at least landed. Have been taken as a much more direct strike at the heart of the saudi system. I think the fact that the war in yemen is continuing is not what was planned in 2015 when operations began. Every time a missile comes over its a signal from the International Backers that they retain the capacity to create embarrassment for the saudi leadership. That is something the saudis have not figured out how to resolve. The dilemma and they have is to try to force the issue and it would be too much of a cost in terms of lives potentially lost in treasure loss. So theres a Halfway House where the not necessarily going to back out, but they dont have the capacity to actually win. Theres something about this missile the americans are back in, its an iranian that is recently introduced into the warfront that they are not happy for but this one is iranian witches prove they have succeeded despite the war into human territories and that is taken to saudi arabia as a game changer. And rightly so. They had the opportunity to send it they were doing. That sort of force my argument. Saudi arabia need to stand up but they need to do it the right way. Within two days serve food President Trump urging them to come together against i think its a interesting way. Talking about yemen, when willfully worn yemen stop . If we read about what was done in 1965, the king was distanced himself from all sides and saudi arabia becomes like an equal partner to all of yemen. I think they need to be discovered again and to reach out to humans and he recently met with the people in it was very interesting. Suppose it. Saudi arabia and hear his meeting with the leader which is good. Its ironic because the city is there, and the chief of is in saudi arabia. So that causes saudi arabia to reach out to all the next thats exactly what he did in 1965. The lets question, explain the dynamics of the royal family. Its cohesion be settled. Will he resign before that . I think theres only one person who knows the question and that is the king himself. We have speculation in every time we think there is something that has not come to pass. One can read what one wants and that. Is a more domestic pushback than anticipated, guess we dont know in terms of family dynamics, my consensus is that man has for a long time in the past performed well with the family he was instrumental in maintaining family discipline and not just fair but respected that. It looks as if to some extent is trying to take that on but will he have the seniority to also impose the respect and all the different branches that may now feel like they have less of a stake in the saudi arabia they see coming together . Its an open question whether once they have passed away, the glue that is kept the family together becomes weaker. We wont necessarily know that. I agree. Out of that i think theyre better off maintaining the status quo. Theyre going the family together and actually King Solomons last leader of the family. So he needs to keep it. Why to keep his power for one or two, three more years. For the family stay united . All the stories about that mohammed this and there on this richer corruption and its preemptive plan, i dont agree with that. I dont anticipate her cannot see the royal family uniting against him. So we can so fragmented. We should remember the lavishness weather them but the latest threads that they had there not into politics, there to exploitation. And they are fragmented. They have jealousies of each other. These leaders that have been slipping away from them, they lost the condition. They called , next line book that the dismantling of the addition of the founding ingredients that pick should be there. I wish they would read it because it is his legacy. Now we talked about secularism. Thats the craziest thing because the concept of what makes a king enjoying divine power. Id like him to let go of that so he would be more accountable. So why would somebody who enjoys this divine role given a room way . Its like asking him to give away that privilege. He went give it away easily. But if mohammed wants to give it away is welcome to do so. Saudi arabia and other countries have rich their citizens to leave lebanon. Soviet diplomats leaving and that was followed by a were, can we see the request to leave . I think lebanon is a very dangerous arena to start trying third trying to stirred things up, i dont think therell be a clearcut resolution in any way. Even now the israelis have a must acknowledge theyre not willing to start a conflict to take action against them. On the other hand perhaps removing this from the same means its easier for the saudi government to allow them to say look, theres even less of an anti hezbollah function maybe trying to longterm say the lebanese overman is hezbollah influenced even more so than it was but, that seems to have backfired at least in the beginning where lebanese have rallied around and said come home so we can talk about this. I dont think its produce the results that were expected to weeks ago. That could be why theres agree a degree of backing off. We have several questions pertaining to [inaudible] we have different questions. Whats going on with that situation lebanon and how will that impact the relationship between saudi arabia lebanon . Even toward dear sunnis of lebanon who always look up to saudi arabia for support, for the first time they become critical of saudi arabia. That is true fired back on a hasty decision. Yes, he had a good argument for taming down hezbollah. Im sure they would develop a proper plan to involve american the french but the way it was conducted and orchestrated fired back and he needed to salvage it very quickly. And then they would hopefully go back to lebanon and resume his role as a leader. The task now for saudi arabia is to salvage two things. The saudi position in lebanon because we begin to lose it and these are influence their in the family, took the sunnis in lebanon two years to find a proper leadership and we are weakening that leadership. It is important to restore the ability in lebanon i hope this is the future plan to have a war to be the Prime Minister they need to be empowered again. Its good for saudi arabia and for the position what is the word, safeguard from lisa sunni in the christian community. They have exclusivity over that. Just a the family was asking if in addition to hezbollah, but they implicated in the other part of the campaign, and related to their asking you didnt mention that. And they are as corrupt as bin laden or anybody else. Im sure as others may protect him. Again, really transparency. Right now the saudi immediate is celebrating a euphoric language, the war on corruption by the great leader. But its not true. What is the status, is it totally bankrupt and out of saudi arabia . You would not find proper reporting about that. Saudis suffered a great deal before the corruption campaign. But im sure is still there, im sure theres still issues with the involvement with royalties. If it wasnt for the printing of the holy koran is an example of corruption. I think the cost of a single copy of the holy koran coming from the printing houses maybe ten times if it is printed by anybody else, nextdoor. Basically it is reachable the so far we havent heard anything like that and maybe his hat for the Prime Minister of lebanon will protect him. The magnitude of the recent changes can they be considered a moment of transition from a new phase in Saudi Society . I think its a moment of transition. Weve seen them be very vocal about his interpretation of extremist islam being rejected. Like with the corruption, too much is resting on one mans interpretation. Perhaps there needs to be a wider debate and dialogue about this. It is such a tough manner that i dont think therell be a wideranging influx from groups that will be impacted by some of the changes being made. If there is no debate it could just go to resentment or repression going forward. As they said, its necessary going about it in the right way. There several questions regarding issues of succession and governance. One question is can we infer from the fact that is not deputy friends that is sons will be future . Are we witnessing twopoint oh . Because of the situation rumors are spreading. In london they are thinking of downsizing the royal family. This is good for him because actually the number of the royal families important. Its important in any future king because they will come to him and they need administration to manage either their problem or their needs. Now, the royal families who have have a niche title of the sun of the father and then were talking about five or 6000 around that number, they had details with each one of them and details of their allowances. So his plan is to issue a decree and to call only the king and his son said he become a king ors father it will only this will be under it in the royal families. Also previously his father use to include other weaker distant member of the family into the family. For example the new minister of the National Guard he was a prince 20 years ago they were added to the room family by decree made by a prince when his governor. They had an interest to expand the royal family. It seems that this is a rumor that she will redefine who is the royal which may be will lead him to develop similar to the british. I think this is good. It is good for the public and for the new emerging middle class. Broyles enjoy privileges. If he has a bit and get way more larger than grant than me. So it is good for saudi arabia to do that. Do think the kingdom of saudi arabia has exaggerated or given too much credit to the hoses. The part of the around saudi competition or is that threat genuine . The disease have swept out of their strongholds taken by september 2014. By the time he came to power the president was imprisoned temporarily in the government fell the same night that he came to power. Clearly the newsies had the line of convenience with the former president who had its gigantic. Returned to get involved against the ran into syria he needs to get the consensus and understanding from congress to do such a thing. So, he should know whatever kushner trump promise, they cannot deliver. We need to spend some time about this. How is that the stabilizing, we should speak in one voice so that we will send the wrong message to a leader like, listening to trump and tillerson and assuming there is a difference between them. Basically they can look at the measure in saudi arabia because theyre the only ones who have a leverage in saudi arabia today. I think the biggest milks calculations he made was to assume of trump swung the u. S. Government would swing with him. Perhaps it goes back to the fact that maybe there was an over expectation or sense that the personalization and decisionmaking offers an opportunity may be, advisor decisionmaking might have cautioned otherwise. That is the key miscalculation that was made. The next question is from andrew, department of energy. Addressed to both of you. How do you see the face of Economic Reforms unfolding . In terms of reduction in subsidies for the domestic gas and so on. I think some of the initial measures have been watered down. One benefit if he is serious about going through with the painful measures that will have to be part of the vision of 2030 that he will have to show that he is serious about this. Over the past two years the first sign of a public backlash the government has to some extent change course. I think the tradeoffs in transitioning to a more sustainable and longterm economic structure not just in reduction of subsidies, but labor market reform and creating the jobs that young saudis will go into will involve taking on those interests. To maintain the advantages they have. If they now think hes taking on key elements to resist the changes he could have a chance to succeed. The main thing is creating the jobs for a trickledown effect. One of the high expectation is to have a budget. Now, with all the discussions about the corruption with aid to the financial ties, it is to gain some of the worst of the craft and added to the National Treasury that it needs to take money from so what is that true situation in our reserve. There is a reluctance see when it comes to subsidies for allowances to government employees. He ordered back allowances that were corrupt government employees. I think theres two drivers to that, politics and another one fixed on the local market. Saudi arabia is going through a recession because of that. Now it may be enforced with a virtual corruption. The things i like that the government is still doing, the drive for illegal businesses, illegal foreign businesses who are working under a cover up is a major epidemic of our national economy. The businesses are operated by those who own and manage it but it is in the name of the saudis. So i began to see pictures and the shutdown, even though its a sign of recession, but it is good. Those businesses are not contributing to the national economy. They need to let go and this is continuing. Theres a great deal of reluctance he on the plans. Okay. A question regarding the saudi perspective, if the socalled iranian expansion is a is it really a genuine threat . And why is it mohammed promoting more diplomatic instead of confrontational policy in this regard . I think it is magnetized by the fact that around saudi arabia there are conflicts involving state and nonstate actors that iran has been involved in and has more ability to use for their own ends. These are not conventional conflicts but there using the tools iran has developed for decades. Both in syria and yemen taken in iran to outsmart with your own proxies is a difficult task when you have been doing this expertly for years. Also the creation of state failures and turmoil on the front has resulted in expansion of the opportunities available to project itself into regional affairs. Those pathways filled by iran in the groups so with iraq and syria were welcome is potentially a deeply concerning from the iranian point of view those bases that could be filled to link up to those our reading groups across the nation and that is another key concern to watch. What percentage of the saudi budget goes to stipe bin or allowances . Do you have any idea . Nobody knows maybe in the future but the only figure that i know in my head is where you can do a calculation so his father would receive double that. You do your calculation with the royalties this is first and. So again you comment on the major reason . With a deeper monarchy to be more convenient regime . If he is doing that he is already on the throne. En to enforce his position, yes. With the people love saudi arabia in the media so as they have said is that useful for him to enjoy . No. But i dont think he needs to intimidate. Because really there is no challenge or no power to challenge a more stop him he is using the most powerful power of the absolute monarchy and that is enough power to enjoy that same power and because the king of saudi arabia so yes. Because they are in the same position really he was not as smart so now he has to perform with the Foreign Policy but his most important source of power with plenty of power. Maybe you can explain that better . I think if you stop to the can of worms you dont want to open up with that time that you engage with a wideranging attempt with the economic or social religious aspects of society there is a danger to be spread too thin even without the Foreign Policy issues going on. And too much too fast so to what extent is the band with . That is another concern i would have. I think this answers the question from the state department in terms of the steps taken over the past several weeks will impact to the relationship between the saudi monarchy in the fundamentals religious establishment . The religious establishment is on the payroll. When mohammed says he wants to destroy the kingdom radicalism will not flourish in saudi arabia if not for the government but those radicals were empowered to put the radicalism by the government. They did not win the election and share power they were empowered by them. Into now the prints were the kingdom realizes so now they pull their support and blame them for that so with that every structure surrounding the government this senior counsel is invested with the of radical views of womens rights, it would be useful to do a paper about the political thinking and a social thinking. And their views of minorities in relation to the muslims, diversitys when you dont judge to is truly radical. Because one was talking on a tv program a few days ago to notice to establish the report but that is not true. Ninety had reform with democracy already lifted the last of timber even shifted with the mills in saudi arabia. Into shift on though women. To be a key is to be a radical not of the clergy would dare write something similar being scripted by the authority today. [applause] so we will conclude the last question one minute each. How do you see near or long term future as a result . Unless it is dissolved their anxious and worried it if this summit is not held this december with the six members we might lose the gcc. It is great to doesnt take place in kuwait that his bin the leading regional mediator as an opportunity. In the past in the region they dont become does all but just irrelevant and demo marginalized i suspect they will do that on paper but we see every major decision has been bipartisan and i think that will continue. Ladies and gentleman this concludes our yvette. [applause] thinks for being here we look forward to seeing u. S. Future events. [inaudible conversations]. In texas i was hoping they would get rid of unnecessary and burdensome regulations. Tax reform with an outdated tax system major get that changed every american can have the best opportunity possible. One of the most important issues facing texans is transparency in government i dont think our leaders could ever be more transparent but only with their own activities in behavior but but the records used in government to see the light of day the citizens deserve to know what is going on in washington. The most important issue is educational choice every parent has the right to direct there kids education hopefully we pass a bill next session