Transcripts For CSPAN2 Sea Power 20170827

Retiring as supreme allied Commander Europe and retiring from the navy. Has been the dean of the fletch are school of law and diplomacy and Tufts University in boston. The very same place that he got his doctorate. He has been given 15 prestigious civilian awards from around the world for his work and within the last year, within the last 11 months, he has been considered for a Vice President ial pick by one Political Party and as secretary of state by another Political Party. I fine that probably one of [laughter] when Jim Stavridis speaks, people listen carefully and im glad to see so many people here tonight who have come to listen to him speak all of this experience, out at sea, and the shore, as given him deep insight about the global state of affairs that we face today. We are very fortunate to have him here tonight witch hi newest book sea power which is can not wait to read. Ladies and gentlemen, jim staff individual dis. Thank you very much. Normally when people hear that introduction, bob, thank you, very kind. Steve, thank you for having me here. Normally when people hear that introduction, they have one overwhelming reaction when they meet me in person which is, boy, i thought youd be taller than you appear to be. Well take just couple of minutes and talk about the oceans of the world today, and so often as we look at map of the world, we tend to think of the land. Right . Its logical. Yet, 70 , 70 percent of the planet are the oceans. By the way, 70 of your body is comb composed of water. And 70 of the oxygen you bring comes from photo synthesis in the oceans. The ises, the british used to say, who know a think or two about naval mastery, the british say the oceans are one. They connect everywhere. So, tonight, as we talk about the ocean is invite you to think about 70 , this water world that we inhabit here today. What im going to do is very quickly ill take 20 minutes and well walk through the oceans of the world, and im going to try to kind of tie it together with the challenges we face and then what we ought to do about it. So let start with the pacific ocean. This is a 1589 chart of the pacific by a car tollgrapher. The bottom right is the polynesians. As i got ready tote underway in san diego in my 500foot, 10,000ton destroyer, i said to my 300 man and women crew, the pacific is dangerous, we ought to really be on our toes. Can you imagine getting in an outrigger and sailing 5,000 miles . The polynesians did that. This is an ancient sea. Also the largest of the oceans. The pacific you dont have to remember the numbers the pacific is 170 million square kilometers, but ill give you a better way to think about it. You could take all the land in the world and put it inside the pacific ocean. Its enormous. And it is an ancient sea and has been sailed for centers. Here are two ship us. The bottom ship, looks like a toy boat you know that ship. Thats the santamaria, like the anyone nina this pint y and she santamaria, 16 feet long, columbus sailed that. The bee home north next to us was from the same time period, 1450, was the flagship of the chinese admiral, xan hee. Was 420 feet long, six decks, 500 mariners on it. Dwarfs the ship Christopher Columbus sailed. These are contemporaneous vessels elm we need to under holiday china views the packs, an ancient sea, an enormous sea and one they have sailed for centuries. In the american mind, when we think about the pacific, what do we think about typically . World war ii. We think about the attack on pearl harbor, the campaign to retake the pacific. This is a period of time, the early 1940s when the United States navy has not hundreds of ships as we do today. We had hundreds of Aircraft Carriers. Today we have 12 acraft carriers. Hundreds we dominated the pacific. American saw few selfview of the pacific has to incull tated the into our dna and how we think about it. But another nation is rising at sea, an ancient nation, an ancient sinks its china. These are chinese Ballistic Missile Nuclear Powered submarines, highly capable. Put them here as examples of the rise of the chinese fleet that we have seen really over the last decade. Chinese now have two Aircraft Carriers, again, we have 12. But they are building, and they are on a constant increase in their maritime capability, and its not just ships. On the left tokyo, this is the Pacific Century building, among the large nest tokyo, largest commercial centers, built and owned by china. On the right, you see a chains warship, proudly pulling interest a port visit, where . Paper harbor, hawaii, the United States of america. China is on the move. China has what they regard as historical claim to the South China Sea. It would be roughly as though the United States claimed to own the gulf of mexico. Chinas belief is that their ancient territorial right is the result of all of those voyages of admiral xanghee and as a result they own the water space and all the hydrocarbons underred. 80 of the pacific trade passes through this South China Sea. And to reinforce this claim, china is building artificial islands and reefs, many of them. Thousands of acres. And theyre militarizing them. Those irair strips. Each one after those islands becomes a kind of an Aircraft Carrier from which china seeks to operate and etrenne forces their claims under it reinforces their claims under International Law. Fortunately, we have allies in this region. We have japan, which is increasing its military spending and is more inclined to operate alongside us. We have south korea, a booming economy, new president. Our allies are the heart of our Maritime Strategy in this region, and its good that we have them because we have an enormous tactical problem. China is a strategic challenge, tactical problem is right here. Its north korea. This is kim jongun, kim jongun, and he is wellnamed because he is unpredictable, unstable, untested, untried, more bidly obese, addicted to opioids, has a really bad haircut, that holds him back. And he is building Ballistic Missiles. He wants to a build nuclear weapons, fly them over the pacific. This provides a confluence of interests between the United States and china in the pacific. Lets turn to the atlantic as we kind of skip around these oceans. This is how the book sea power is structured. Each chapter a history of the ocean, the current geopolitics and what its like to sail in that ocean as a mariner. The atlantic is the ultimate transit zone in history in so many ways, and it begins with these great mariners who all come from the iberian peninsulas. Spain and portugal, upper right, prince henry. Bottom right, Christopher Columbus. Upper left, the greatest of navigators marks gel lon. Upper left, diaz, portuguese mariner who opens the routes to africa and the indian ocean. These mariners transit the atlantic and create a global economy. How do we think of it in the United States . We think of world war i and world war ii. Our absolute determination to resupply the europeans in those two wars create transit zones, convoys, much warfare, two small hinges, these convoys are swinging big doors of the war. If we had not controlled the atlantic, we would not have succeeded in either of those wars. So thats the american view of the atlantic. Today we are challenged on the atlantic by vladimir putin. By the resurgence of the russian navy, and our problem is that we keep looking for the strategic terrain in the atlantic on this map, and its not there. The strategic terrain is right here. Its the mind of vladimir putin. He is rebuilding the russian navy. This is a brand new russian frigate, highly capable. In the next three years, russia will add 100 ships to their fleetment we will be challenged on our coasts in the greenland, iceland, unites kingdom, giuk gap its called. Were going to see a resurgent russia in the atlantic, as we see a resurgent china in the pacific. Lets turn to the Third Largest ocean, that would be the indian ocean. So, pacific, about 160 million square kilometers. Atlantic, around 100. Indian ocean, just a tad smaller, but a big ocean. You could take the entire land mass over the United States times three and put it in the indian ocean. It began as spice routes. Today increasingly hydrocarbons. The two geopolitical actors, india on the left, pakistan on the right, have their own kind of cold war manifesting in maritime confrontation in the indian ocean. We see piracy around the edges of it. And off the coast of yemen, we see the interplay of shia, thats iran supporting Houthi Rebels and sunni, saudi arabia, the gull states, supporting the government of yemen with the United States leaning towards saudi arabia. A great deal of this action is playing out in the maritime theater. And to the anybody one challenge in the indian ocean is rite here thats iran. This is the iranian flag. Iran sees its as an imperial power. They will seek to recreate the persian empire. These are the battle flags of cyrus the mag enough sun, 2500 years ago, darius, the great, and the flag of iran today. Look at the water space around that persian empire. And all of it brings confrontation between upper right, iran, shia nation, bottom left, sunni world, led by saudi abe ya, our closest ally and friend, israel next middle of the mix. The United States, very much involved. So, maritime activity, not only the South China Sea, not only the atlantic, but also this persianarabian gulf and the waters of the indian ocean. What else . The mediterranean. How many people have again on a kraus at the mediterranean. I get quite a few. Its a wonderful place. A wonderful place that is getting a big cruiseliner and really enjoy yourself. The Mediterranean Sea of all of the worlds ocean as season the most combat, the most war. If could snap my fingers and bring back to life all of the dead mariners drowned at sea, all of the smoking hullses that went to the woman and miraculously bring them back, we would completely cover the surface of the Mediterranean Sea with those sailors. This is the battle of lapan toe o. One of the enmick maritime battles in history in which a Christian Coalition led by the hungarian empire fought the Ottoman Empire in the center of the mediterranean. The med is this place where wore at sea began. Today, the challenge is in the Eastern Mediterranean. Syria, the brutal tick dater bic dictator and war cale, assad, coastline on the Eastern Mediterranean and heres what it looks like are its confrontation between the United States and russia, the russian flag before the u. S. And the other nations of this region are in conflict not only about the geopolitics but also about the hydrocarbons. This is an area of the world rich under the sea in oil and natural gas. These nations will compete for that. So cypress. It is indeed. What does it all lead to . It leads to this. Weaves refugees that with waf refugees, and picture yourself on that boat trying to cross the waters. These are deeply conflicted waters with huge humanitarian challenges and great issues at play. Lets come a little closer to home here in florida. This is the caribbean. It is a sea that we know well here in florida, and im a florida native by the way, been just north and west palm beach, the less expensive side of town. The caribbean is an extraordinary body of water, rich in tradition and history. Today from a u. S. Perspective, the beating heart of it is the panama canal. Twothirds of u. S. Maritime passes through the canal. Its were run by the panamanians. Has been expanded recently, yet there are challenges in, maritie cal helpings, gangs are going sea. Natural disasters plague the region. Bottom left, the refugee problems here. Upper left, the challenge of narcotics. Let me actually on narcotics let me show you a rather hopeful photograph. This is a drug bust. This is a hightech u. S. Navy vessel. Its capturing a drug runner. The bad news is that the hightech u. S. Navy vessel is the one on top in the photograph. The one on the bottom that looks like batman submarine, that was build in the jung kell of colombia. When we caught this thing and truth in advertising, theres a navey dedestroyer just our the picture. This had 10 tons of cocaine, street value in miami, 150 million, so, lets park the issue of should people use drugs or not. Its a medical issue, personal choice. What i worry about is the money. It cost the cartel five Million Dollars to put this to sea and load it with cocaine, thats what undermines fragile democracies in central america. That creates corruptionment driven by demanded here in the United States. ll never solve this in the prance sit zone we have to work on the supply side and the demand side in the United States and dress medically the challenges here. Lets go north to the arctic. On the left, is a doomed vessel, the uss jeanette. It sailed and powered into it the high north in the mid19th century, a privatepublic expedition, caught in the ice, the crew, most of them lost, handful escaped. It shows us that even as late as the late 19th century we had no idea what was in the high north. Today i will tell you as a fact, the ice is melting. We can have a big debate about the science of global warming. Im here as a mariner and ill tell you as a fact the ice is melting. As a result, those sea lanes of communication are going to open. Hydrocash businesses will be available and there will be significant competition in high north. We have a chance, unfortunately, of turning this into a real cold war, pun intended, over time, and russia on one side of this arctic and five nato nations, u. S. , canada, denmark, because of greenland, iceland, northern norway on the other side. This, because of the ice melting, will create real geopolitical challenge. Theres something called the arctic council. Nato kind of on one side, russia on the oomph lets hope we can find a way to use diplomacy to avoid further conflict in the high north. And we dont have enough ice breakers. Anybody know how many the ice breakers the United States has . One. You get the prize. Denmark, a nation of 4 million people, they have six. Russia has dozens. China has 12 and is building more. We need to step up our game if were going to operate in the high north. So, lastly, having walked you through a few of the world residents oceans, let me turn to what call sometimes the outlaw sea. The outlaw see, the oceans are the largest crime scene in the world. Pollution. Dumping. Acidification, piracy itself, fishing, underreported, underregulateed. Catches of protein down 60 over the last two decades. And the oceans are warming. Again, we can have a debate about why that is happening but its a fact. And, again, environmentally, we face the longterm challenge because our oxygen comes from the oceans. With all respect to al gore, who told us many times, the amazon are the lungs of the earth, thats not right. The oceans are the lungs of the world. Thats where our oxygen comes from. So right about now you tooth ought to say, okay, admiral, im worried you. Took us on a tenminute voyage and im worried. What do you think . What are the opportunities to create better security and to harness the oceans responsibly . What would this 19th century old broken down admiral, who wrote the naval strategy of the United States, 150 years ago, what would he say about the world today . What is the first thing we should do . To make sure we can continue to be a sea power . You think in the next picture is like an Aircraft Carrier, right . The number one thing we should do is listen more. Listen more. This gentleman is listening. This is actually from about 80 years ago. Its an early air defense esteem. He is listening for incoming aircraft but it put it here for us as metaphor. We should listen literally to the oceans. We need to study them and understand what is going on we should listen to our allies, our partners, our friends in the world. We should listen to our opponents so we can find ways to avoid conflict. Thats my number one prescription. What else can we do . This is the Naval War College in newport, rhode island. We can do exactly what youre doing tonight, we can stop, we can listen like student do at a college, and we can learn and converse, agree, disagree in a responsible way. We can have a dialogue and build intellectual capital to understand our oceans. What else . We can hold on to our values. Our values. And our values come to us, upper left, from the ancient greenings. Thats airs to thele. From the asians, thats buddha, the enlightment, the Young Voltaire on the right, the best portrait. Through the founding fathers, to people like angela merkel, i would argue the most responsible valuedriven leader in the world today. We need to hold those values, and a principle value to think about in terms of the oceans is our responsibility for future generations, as well as our geopolitical concerns today. What else can we do . Im in a wonderful book store. Iconic book stores in the United States of america. So proud to be here. We can read more. We can read magazines, like the economist and unbiased, central, centrist, magazine, with no bilines. People ask me is in era of fake news, where do i turn . Try the economist, i spend four years as supreme allied command ornate too reading the president s daily intelligence brief. If you read the economist cover to cover once a week youll get 80 plus percent of what the president is seeing. You can rate biographs of him in nit, potter, one of my heros and mentors the world of writing. Read the cruel sea, a heartbreaking story of life at sea and war and impact on people but about the oceans. Rules of the game about the battle or reach back into history and reread. What are the echos for today. We need a strong and capable navy, Aircraft Carriers, submarines and surface ship is. The fleet today is 275 ship us. Under president reagan we had almost 600. In world war ii we had thousands. Were not in an open war now. We dont need thousands. Were not in a cold war. Dont need 600 but we need more than 275. We need 300 to 350 ships. Thats not me wing it. Thats serious analysis. How do we get there . We have to build more, extend the life of some but we need a capable fleet. But its not just about your navy. Its also your coast guard, your marine corps, these joint partners who work together. Its about our allies and friends. Look at this photograph. These are pirates being captured. These are somali rite is right out of captain phillips. These are french, u. S. Marines, wholand in an Italian Military helicopter, refueled at a danish frigate, portuguese aircraft overhead protecting them, based on satellite imagery provided by the United States. Its a coalition, folks. We dont want to be the world residents policeman. Thats not our job women want to work with allies, friends and partners to take op on challenges together. So in addition to our navy, and our joint partners, we need our allies, our friends. When we go to face china as we must in the South China Sea on these artificial islands well rely not only on our ships but on japan and south korea and australia to help us. We need the united nations, not a popular organization. But the u. N. Is the back borne of International Law that creates the regime of the oceans. Its a good treaty. We should ratify it. We need more of this. When i was a commander of u. S. Southern command for three years, the colonel over there was my team lead for many, many things. We filled these hospital ships with doctors and nurses, private sector, interagency, allied doctors. We had dutch and French Military doctors, and civilian volunteers. We had everybody operating on this. Was the ultimate team sport. In many years as an admiral i ordered deployment of many Aircraft Carriers into combat. The most important deployment is made were these hospital ships. Im firmly convinced of that. We need privatepublic cooperation. This is a private vessel receiving fuel after being freed from pirates by a u. S. Navy fueler. And ill conclude, the background of this book is not only the geopolitics, which ive talked about. Not only the trade and the economy, 95 of the worlds goods move at sea. But its i tried communicate in the book what its like to be a mariner, what its like to sail into the arctic, what its like to sail through the strait of gibraltar, what dot is feel like when you approach the coast of china in the dark of night, dodging fishing boats. Its choppy, its challenging if spent 11 years of my Police Officer on the deep ocean, out of sight of land. Spent 16 years assigned to ships, 11 day for day on the ocean and you not what . Sometimes things go wrong. This is where i want to close. This is the ocean i know. Its the ultimate room with a view. An office with a view. It was a privilege to serve my nation as a sailor for 37 years. Ive tried to pour that experience into this book, to pull some history alongside it, some geopolitics with it, but above all, this is a sailors book. Thank you very much for being with me today. [applause] thank you, thank you. Id love to very kind. Thank you very much. Id love to take some questions about the issue in the world today. We need more of this. When i was a commander of u. S. Southern comangd right here for three years, kernel jorge right over there was my team lead for many, many things. We filled these hospital ships withdoctors and nurses. Private sector, inner agency, allydoctors. We had dutch and French Military doctors and civilian volunteers. We had everybody operatingon this it was the ultimate sport in many years as a admirable i ordered deployment of many Aircraft Carriers into combat. The most important deployments i made were these hospital ships. Firmly convinced of that. We need private, Public Corporation this is private vessel receiving fuel after being freed from pirates bya u. S. Navy fueler. Ill conclude that background ofthis book is not only the geopolitics which ive talkedabout but trade or economy and 95 of the worlds goods move at sea. But its i try to communicate in the book what had its like to be a mariner what its like tosail into the arctic what its like to sail through the straight what does it feel like when you approach the coast of china in the dark of night dodging fishing boats . Its choppy. Its challenging. [laughter] i spent 11 years of many my life day for day on the deep ocean out of sight of land. I spent 16 years assigned to ships 11 day for day on that ocean. And you know what,sometimes things go wrong. [laughter] more than often this is where epght to close this is the ocean iknow. Its the ultimate room with a view an office with aview. When i put those three i didso because those are the three largest Maritime Forces who are most likely to come to operate are with us you can correctly pointing out in addition to three who are reity allies new zealand, thailand and philippines are also treaty ally id like to ask as you are commander of latin america of growing unrest in venezuela what challenges that may face for refugee or piracy or i think you youve hit the really dark end of the spectrum would be a complete collapse of order in the nation whichconceivably could lead to waves of refugee. It is morelikely that they would move across the border into columbia than they would take to sea but some numberprobably qowld take to sea. I dont think its a maritime problem per se. But i think its an a enormous potential humanitarian crisis. Already within venezuela, to we have any here tonight normally we would in a miami audience im shocked we dont o. It is a becoming difficult with real violence on the streets. Let us hope that they dot right thing which is not to create a new kind of lump parliament and jam a new constitutionthrough. Let us hope had that he allows current ruleof law to follow what the United States ought to do is support the efforts of the o. A. S. Organization ofamerican states to put pressure on to do the rightthing and follow the legality within the venezuelanconstitution we should feel very positive that wereseeing both columbia and brazil qhor helping with that and putting immediate pressure on. In terms of hydrocar been and u. S. Economy not significant at thispoint. Of the United States has become a exporter of hydrocarbons, by dont have time for long discussion about energy parts this have but much morehumanitarian crisis the United States should not takefroct line of this to alaw to create a target in the United States. Use ally not to be the world policeman but others take the lead. Its a huge, huge challenge inthis hemisphere. Yes, maam and then up here. So my question with the noters and glacier melting and the trade that could happen in the north is if theres no longer polar icecap and russia long stapgding desire for warm water port so can you give us sort of a 20year outlook on that . I can. Assuming that globalwarming helicopterrings were going to see within 20 years well see the sea lane of chiewngs, the shipping lanes, open all year round. That means we have tocreate systems of buoys to mark them. We have to provide search and a rescue. We have to ensure thatmariners can operate safely and crew tankers l and g tankers so we have to create a regime to do that. We need to cooperative relationship with russia. The problem is, we have an extreme geopolitical confrontation with russia over o syria, where theysupport assad over invasion of ukraine and intrusion. So how do we get out of this this . My belief is we use the arctic counsel which i highlighted if for you and we try to take a very pragmatic approach to say we must confront where it was on crucial issue i mentioned but lets find disoafn cooperation with russia federation. I think the arctic could be one of those zones. So im cautiously optimistic that well be able to preserve this extremely fragile environmentone which has never known had war, and over o time find a cooperative relationship with russia. There because it is in their interest as well with as ours. Yes,sir. Has to do with china you mentioned confrontationwith china and South China Sea, which ive heard from other areas, and seems to me that britain had a similar issue with the United States around the turn of the vie with the caribbean and United States we were going to grab it and britain had a choice to confront the United States or o they could let United States take control of the caribbean with with desperate threats, germanynavy, empire and such seems to me looking at the South China Sea china has a reason to believe this is their sea. Do they really pose such a threat to us that we cannotgive them more room to maneuver in South China Sea and avoid the confrontation . And seem there thatcontrol of that area like most of the world exceeds our control in caribbean. First of all i would saythat mexico, cuba, jamaica, trinidad, et cetera in no way control the caribbean. What china is attempting to do to follow your analogy would be to actually taketerritorial control to make that a territorial sea. So ithink the analogy breaks down a bit because of the expansioniveness of the chinese desire here. I think its fair to say and i would agree with you that it isreasonable for us to e believe that china ought tohave significant influence in asia. That makes sense. But we should not exceed to simply territorial controlover an enormous body of water that would be an enormously bad precedent. I think that historicanalogy thats actually more apt that you kind of pulled at was the confrontation between Great Britain and germany about 100 years ago. Here you have anestablished power facing a rising power. This is sometimes called the tram where in an established power is challenged by a rising power. My friend Graham Allison professor at harvard has doneextensive historical analysis over the 16 times in thelast several thousand years that that situation has entailed in 12 of those situations the two nations go towar. In four of them, they do not. What we need to do is understand china. Listen to them. Exceed where we can,cooperate where we can, but confront where they really push beyond borders of what makes sense if wedo that job your point i think we can avoid this trap and avoid open confrontation. Others yeah howabout this young man way over here. J hello. Okay as an admirable whats primary difference you have between sea attack versus a land battle. Okay great question. So the ocean, the biggest thing, of course, is terrain. The ocean heres the news flash the oceans are flat. Theres no terrain borders between them you know how fast you can cross them, you have many more known elements in a sea battle on the surface. On land you have enormous obstacles you have to get over. The challenge is below the sea in todays world. I sometimes envy have admirals like lord nelson that who could see all of the challenge in front of him. And admirable today has to worry about this underseabattle thats very three dimensional. So i would say inreally simple terms, in admirable has to deal with the surface of the oceans but his challenge is whatswhatting underneath and, of course, theres an airbattle overhead but thats the same in bothcomponents. So for the admirable he has an advantagewith the flatness of the sea but a danger from what is under it. The general has many more challenges in terms of obstacles in a physical zone. But he or she canmap those and doesnt have to deal with that hidden dimension under the quarter so two different kinds ofbattle mind setses are necessary between admirableand jns whats over here and get someone on this sideof the room. How is the [inaudible conversations]columbus because i like the 1500s of those mariners. I think the question is how do you describe the skills of the mariners in the 15, 16th century and how are they different than need and expand the question so todaybeing a mariner is a lot easier lets face it you have satellites overhead. That pin point your position. You have distant Surveillance Systems both undersea and in the air you have many more tools. Mariners that i showed you had to rely on wind and current on pilots orders that said you know the last time i took thisvoyage the prevailing winds were from the northeast that means that i was getting to the its very intuitivesailing early mariner developed navigation as they went with along. Navigational systems including the use of music music there we go. Including, includingeventually longitude which really changed navigation but that is before so people at Christopher Columbus sailed by what is called direct reckoning when they take their ship, they take a log to see how far they have gone in a given hour, day they plot it on a chart an they estimate how much the current and wind havepushed them off. It was a very intuitive its a difference i would say between art and science today. [laughter]how about someone over here. How about back in thecorner . So i first round expert the day that Aircraft Carriers are a thing the past, and focused on them that the u. S. Has mistakes. Im not sure i agree with saidpeople. But i would be curious on your take on that. Aircraft carriers remain the centerpiece of the u. S. Fleet. And they are enormous machines of war. Just to give you an idea of the scale of these ships you could take the Empire State Building lay it on its side thatshow long an a aircraft is. Its 100,000 tons has a crew of5,000. Its flight deck is 8 acres of sovereign u. S. Territory and has 80 aircraft combat on it. More to the point it is defended and doesnt sail by itself. Its defended by cruisers, destroyers, submarines under itland base over it. Surveillance systems concern theyre well protected. They are not invulnerable they are not invulnerable and could be hit by hypersonic crews miss pls a submarine could slip underneath them so heresthe bottom line we should rely on the carriers but weshould not make them independencable. We need to district combat power with tomahawk missile with other large ships we have that capability we need a balanced fleet with about about 12 carriers. But about 100 cruisers destroyers to protect them and district that firepower. Not 60 submarines we need a districted fleet we dont want to overrely on carrier nor should we overestimate them and close by saying our pointsfocus constantly on the carriers. Back here in the hawaiian shirt. Consequences if any would have occurred at the end of the cold war of the unitedstates gradually got out of the south korea trying to make it just a local dispute between the north and the south that appears to me that its attention call to the United States that were there. And if we have lessthan south have a local dispute served for inked why and pakistan and might be a a little bit better. I think what you would today and you know its always afascinating game to sort of think about what if, whatweve done that and havent gone into vietnam,whatever. My guess would be that entire Korean Peninsula today would be unified subject to china. It would be a chinese vessel state essentially, andrecall that reason it wect into korea was because it was invaded and so it one make if we left north korean state would have dominated it would be a hard line communist state, and to give you an idea what itwould be like i would invite you to do this. Go ongoogle, and google the korean pee peninsula in thenight. Ive seen it. In the north theres a single point oflight. Everything else is black. To the south theres a freely aluminated world if we had not staid the bottom half qowb qowb fully une loom naitd thats my view. We have to call it there it is 8 00 i would love to sign some books for you. Thank you very much. [applause] to the back carla hayden give us a preview of this Years National book festival. Quest this years festival is so exciting. I must tell you it is going to be one of my favorites because i