Transcripts For CSPAN Middle 20240703

Congressional hearings, party briefings and committee meetings. Cspan gives you a front row seat to how issues are debated and decided with no commentary, no interruptions and completely unfiltered. Cspan, your unfiltered view of government. Next, a discussion about the recent attack by hamas against israel and how it impacts u. S. Policy. During the discussion, panelist examined israels response to the attacks, irans potential role and the history of hamas. The Virtual Event was hosted by the Washington Institute for your east policy. Thank you for joining me. At the outset of todays event on behalf of myself and my colleagues at the Washington Institute, i want to extend our condolences to the innocent victims of last weekends horrific terrorist attack by hamas. The 900 or so israelis and others from around the world including what appears to be 11 confirmed americans, to all of them and their families, to the people of israel, to all civilized people around the world outraged by what we have seen, the barbarity of what we have seen this weekend, i extend our deepest condolences. I believe there is an Inflection Point going on in the middle east at the moment. That is analogous to the Inflection Point of 9 11, and this will require us to rethink many of the presumptuous the presumptions, the paradigm with which we in the United States, many of us as experts come up coached politics approached politics and conflict in the region. I will introduce our panelists in a moment. We have a terrific group today, the first of a series of sessions that we will be doing at the Washington Institute to analyze, assess and offer advice to our administration on events in the region. Before i do, i want to take the 9 11 metaphor and expand it. Yes, in terms of certain aspects , intelligence failure, the speed, the scope, the audacity of what we saw this weekend, yes, the metaphor is apt. But in many ways i think it is so important to underscore that the 9 11 metaphor in fact isnt adequate. Certainly, if you are israeli, to comprehend the impact and meaning of what happened this weekend. Let me offer this handful of reasons. Six brief reasons why the 9 11 metaphor in fact is not adequate. First, the numbers. Proportionately to population, the numbers killed in israel were 10 times the numbers killed in 9 11. 10 times. Secondly, the intensity. Israel is a small country. You can drive israel in half a day. Compared of course course to the length and breadth of our great nation. While what happened on 9 11 was heinous, tens of millions of americans would wake up the next morning without knowing anyone who suffered that day. That is impossible in israel where there is not a single israeli family who can whip wake up the next day without knowing someone suffered and or someone who is deployed in the army as a response. Third, if you will excuse me, sexuality. The element of rape as part of what happened weekend underscores the depth of the depravity that we saw fourth, terrorists continue to operate on israeli soil and some are still there today, although i ink is about to come to an end. The length of time of this episode makes it fundamentally different. If, fifth, mass hostages taken across borders, and element never before played a role in the history of this conflict and that is extremely rare in any conflict. I had to go back to the first chechen war to find examples of largescale hostagetaking across borders. Sixth, as we eventually learned in 9 11, that day was the high point of the enemies action. We feared there may be more, but in the end there wasnt. America and its allies went on the offensive from that point on. I think we all recognize, and we will talk today and didnt get your days about this, what is going on between hamas and israel is potentially the first round of a much larger conflict, and that of course could change even more. So the 9 11 metaphor, useful but limited in its utility. I think we have to change our mindset to begin to comprehend what this does to the people and leaders of israel and people around the middle east looking at how the israelis respond. In addition to analogies about 9 11, there are many analogies to the october war of 1973, exactly 50 years ago. From this very table, i hosted an event on the question of strategic surprise during which none of my fellow panelists, myself included, anticipated what would happen 72 hours later. Surprise was great, and as in 1973, the israelis were not deployed properly to be ready for a surprise. But that analogy breaks down too. Sadat launched war to catalyze the middle east and the result was camp david. 45 years later, egypt and israel are at peace. Hamas didnt start this to catalyze peace. Hamas didnt start this to create a two state solution. Hamas didnt start this to energize a peace process. In my view, and we will get into this with my colleagues briefly, hamas started this to activate a multifront threat to israel, to fill a vacuum and palestinian leadership, and third, to stop the march towards Regional Peace , including the saudiisrael agreement about which there was much talk in recent weeks. Let me repeat, not only are we not seeing just another phase of gaza hamas israel conflict like we have seen in recent years, we are seeing something fundamentally different and we are seeing an israeli response that will be fundamentally different, too. In that, i know the hostage issues play a huge role, but in my view, if i have outlined what i believe hamas aims are, here is what i believe israels aims are. First, to decapitate hamas leadership and destroy residual military capability. Second, to instill confidence among the israeli people once again that the government of israel and the idf provides their security, confidence that has been shaken in recent days. And to replace in the minds of regional actors, friends, foes and would be friends, the perception of israeli vulnerability and weakness that was produced over the weekend, and replace it with the idea of israeli power, dominance and invincibility. I would not discount the psychological aspect of all of this. I think it is critical. There is a substantial military effort, one that wont be over soon, hovering all of overall of this. What you will hear in the coming days and weeks is the threat of wider circles of conflict, and inner circle that includes the palestinian arena, jerusalem, west bank, Israeli Arabs, the second circle of what i will call near regionals, hezbollah, syria, potentially a related security challenge in other places like jordan if islamist extremists and palestinian reticles try to test the redeem, a test i believe the jordanians would win, and the wider circle. Iran. Let me conclude these remarks by noting that america has a vital role to play in all of this. What we saw this weekend was not just an israeli tragedy. It was the most significant act of terror against americans outside u. S. Soil since september 11. For hamas, a radical sunni group, one of the rationales for making Common Ground with the radical shiite groups and hezbollah and iran, they have Common Ground in the fight against the great satan and lesser satan. Israel is the lesser satan. America, israels friend, has always been the great satan. We cant run from that reality. Neither i should say can americas arab friends run from it. They werent the direct targets of hamas, but it israel if israel is weekend, they become more vulnerable. That explains the generic statements we have seen. When israel appears vulnerable, they will look for cover, reestablishing the fact and the image of israeli strength is in their interest which makes it in our interest. I look forward to discussing these issues with my colleagues. Today, we are focused on the inner core, the hamas attack im a israels response and implications. We will be having another event on thursday to look at the potential for escalation on the northern front, and further programming. Please go to the Washington Institute website to learn about that. I will turn to my colleagues. Im delighted from israel, joining us our International Fellow ehud yaari. Then our director of the reinhart program, dr. Matthew levitt. Sitting on my right. Then, on my left, im thrilled and fortunate that at the moment we have as a visiting fellow at the wasit didnt Washington Institute naomi newman, who was director of research at the israeli institute. She had responsibility to keep an eye on palestinian territories. On my far left geographically, not politically, is my colleague ghaith alomari, the gilbert senior fellow at the Washington Institute, an expert on palestinian politics. Delighted to have you with us. We will begin with my colleague ehud yaari. Ehud thank you for your wise comments. This evening, im not going to mince words. I take it from my mother, 104 years old, that this is the darkest moment she remembers in the history of israel since the darkest days of the war of independence in 1948. The second point is, we are already in the midst of a multifront confrontation. Different intensity on different fronts, but we are there. In my families home village, in the northernmost point of israel , they are telling everybody who doesnt have a good reason to stay there, to evacuate. The same goes for many, many other villages and towns all around the north. Sorry, my nephew just came from thailand and went to his brigade in the north. I apologize. If i may have an open disclosure , in the kibbutz, where my childhood friends from the Youth Movement centered years ago, thousands were killed. 40 babies, not even toddlers, were massacred. Many of them beheaded. What we saw there is disguised as hamas. That is what it was. This is how most israelis see it. Israel had enough information to know that there was an attack coming. Probably, i did not establish this yet. Finally, they didnt have the zero hour, just like on the people of the 1973 war the eve of the 1973 war. But they knew and they saw the preparations. And again, like 1973, we have two of what someone calls peacock generals, military intelligence decided who decided that our policy since 2009 of getting along with hamas through economic benefits and the occasional round of fighting, etc. , is working. They said no. They will be fine. What happened was the defense around gaza, 70 km, it is just a fence. It is a wall. It was unguarded by the gaza division, the firefox divisions. When you try to defend 70 km with three companies, it isnt going to work. And of course, it didnt. There was one place which gives an example of how we should have developed. In one of the now scorchedearth , beautiful, blossoming regions of israel, what we called the gaza envelope, 22, 23 kibbutz and villages which are now destroyed and burned down, only one remains almost intact. Because they had a young lady heading the local security squad, and she understood before anyone else in the army what was going on. She had the squad spread around the perimeter. And prevented the hamas killers from coming into the kibbutz and doing what they did elsewhere, going from house to house butchering people. This is why my mother says what she said. In the war of independence, we never had anything like this. Second thing. Why was the intelligence, why were the intelligence chiefs so wrong . Because since 2009, they came to believe it works. We allow gazan workers to come to israel, we provide fuel and money and they were married to this. Again, the 1973 conceptions. When the hamas facing israeli technological superiority and doubtful came over the fence with motorized gliders and tractors, etc. , there was nobody to stop them. In the distance, between the fence and the 22, 23 kibbutzim in the army positions, it is very short. It wasnt just two battalion commanders of hamas that crossed. Probably only two battalion commanders. There were many gazans coming. On the way they took some hostages. That is the theme. And it took hours to intervene. We had girl soldiers there. Manning the positions, that monitored cameras and sensors along the fence. At least two dozen of them were butchered in their positions. Because there was no buffer. That is something which is very difficult for any israeli to accept and understand. Now, i beg everybody, i believe, and i dont have proof yet, i will have it but this was orchestrated by the Iranian Revolutionary guard through the Quds Force Commander through beirut and tehran, etc. , in order to derail progress towards an israelisaudi normalization. The iranians perceive the move in this direction as a direct, serious threat. They did not want to take it. Now, hamas, i have known him since his days in prison, the leader of hamas in gaza. Many conversations with him in prison. He didnt want to have a fight in israel on his own. My assumption, i will have evidence later on im sure, was that the iranians and hezbollah were saying to him, through the people they were talking to in beirut, in case the knife is at your throat, in case the israeli army invades gaza forcefully, there will be activation of a lebanese front and to a lesser extent, syrian front because we see movements that they are getting ready to send rockets their, probably try to have rockets already. The lebanese front will have every day, rockets. Today, 15. We have attempts by a squad to penetrate into israel. What is israel doing . I think what they are doing now is they are trying to get the forces ready for an eventual major advance into the gaza strip. They have to decide on how to do it. They have plans. Where to do it. But in my opinion, no hurry. We had better prepare the ground and the air force is doing it. Let them do their job. When you enter, you have to minimize the capability of hamas to resist. About the hostages, number one, nobody knows the number. Neither israel, i think even hamas doesnt know. They have threatened to execute hostages in return for israeli bombing. Today i was carefully checking throughout the day in israel. The air force continued the raids on hamas targets in gaza and other places. I didnt hear anything else coming from hamas about that, but it is a real, serious possibility. I would end by saying that we have entered this confrontation in a situation where we had a government, mainly a Prime Minister, who is discredited, who is not trusted by i would say more than half the population. And now, four days after this horrible massacre, he still cant make up his mind about forming an emergency war cabinet with the opposition. Because someone like mr. Banville, who he appointed as minister of national security, wants to be in the cabinet and the opposition leaders rightly so, say no, we dont need this guy. So four days and we dont have a war cabinet. That is a signal of unity, of concentrated national effort. And people are wondering. I will finish by saying one thing. In my family and many others, Many International air flights to israel. You should have seen the flights coming in from bangkok last night. It wasnt just my young nephews. It was young israelis coming to their reserve units, going up north, going down south. Etc. If they built on the political turmoil created, i think they will be proven wrong. Thank you. Robert very good. Thank you very much. Matt . Matthew thanks, im glad to be here. Ehud, we appreciate your blunt and emotional input. I think people need to understand the nature of its hamas and its terrorist infrastructure and capabilities. And i think there is a disconnect because many people seem to have gotten to the point certainly in the years since 2007 1 hamas took over the gaza strip by shooting its weapons at fellow palestinians that they somehow changed. That it was no longer a group committed to violent jihad, but it was somehow more representative of palestinians in general. Certainly that is its propaganda. It is not. And what it was really about was a continued siege of gaza and occupation, and as it likes to say, defending jerusalem against terrorist attacks was named the alaqsa flood. In fact, in the years since it took over the gaza strip, hamas found itself in a position to do things it never could. Limited by suit suicide bombings, shooting attacks, targeting cafes, the types of things that it is only still capable, limited to in the west bank. In the gaza strip it realized that if it played the long game, it could build up an infrastructure the likes of which most terrorist groups dont get to build, by virtue of controlling space and having an effective safe haven. Being able to build up a storage of small arms, a collection of in the early days, imported and in the years since, domestically produced rockets and missiles, some of them which can go quite far into the west bank and tel aviv. And to build up a cadre of fighters they could use in large numbers at a future date. The many people who thought hamas would be coopted by governments, that it would be too busy paying the salaries of schoolteachers and collecting garbage to be fighting israel in a largescale war, who thought hamas would be deterred by virtue of the fact that there would likely be significant israeli retaliation, have been proven wrong in a very painful and bloody way. Today, we need to look at hamas as a militant and terrorist group, not only as one that can carry out your standard terrorist attacks, but one that could deploy at least 1000 people into israel, in coordinated attacks, an organization that successfully led a disinformation campaign, convincing israel not only that it could be deterred, as long as money came in and there were jobs, just last week israel allowed an additional numbers of workers to come into israel from the gaza strip, that things could be calm. Having riots at the fence and using those as cover for shootings at the west bank making people think that was the totality of what they were going to do, to play the long game. I think its important to remind, hamas is not about occupation or the lack of a two state solution. Hamas opposes a two state solution. Hamas is about creating an Islamic State in all of historic palestine including the gaza strip and israel. Its about the destruction of israel. That is something that people have lost sight of. The Israeli Air Force will be focused right now on trying to destroy as much of their military capability as possible. That will involve those shooting rockets but also hamas defensive capabilities. Here its important to remember the hamas tunnel system, not the one built into egypt for smuggling, not the one that was dug into israel before an underground fence prevented those back in the day so hamas, back when it was planning an earlier version of this weeks attacks, talking about the tunnels built domestically, so that when the day came that they were able to draw israel to a ground fight in the gaza strip, they would be able to pop up from places unannounced and ambush soldiers. There is also the american angle here. Rob mentioned this briefly. This is in fact the most serious attack targeting americans since 9 11 abroad. We dont have the full numbers. The white house said we know of 11 americans killed. The likelihood that that number increases is painfully high. We dont know the number but we know there were americans who were kidnapped into the gaza strip. The fbi will be opening up cases through their extraterritorial squad for every american that was a victim of this series of attacks, whether people were killed or injured, terrified, whether they escaped and those of course who were kidnapped. They will be providing support to the israelis. I imagine that will be the limit on the issue because the israelis know what they are doing and will not need more u. S. Support, are famous for saying i will not ask someone to fight for them. But because they are americans held hostage, you can imagine u. S. Intelligence and Law Enforcement communities will be looking at this very closely. They will be looking at things domestically, too, not that i think there is a hamas threat in this country in a military sense, i dont, but you dont need to look far on social media to see hateful rallies that not only include potential hate crimes, but violence in cities across the United States. That will take the attention of Law Enforcement as well. We will have later opportunities this week to talk more broadly about the likelihood of more horizontal escalation, whether from hezbollah in lebanon, hezbollah and other militants in syria, potential for missiles from the south. Its important to underscore something that eyhud said. The likelihood that hamas decided to take this series of actions, knowing that the israelis would have to retaliate in a very significant way, it is unlikely that they would do this without the belief that if push came to shove, other elements of what we call the iran threat network, what they call the axis of resistance, would come to their defense to create other fronts in this war. Whether or not that happens remains to be seen. The west bank is fairly quiet right now. East jerusalem is quiet right now. There has been stuff happening on the northern border but frankly less than many of us expected. But that is certainly hamas hope. Finally, i think we need to recognize that this does change everything. Anyone who expects the response to an attack like this is going to be like previous responses deeply misunderstands the nature of this attack and the nature of its psychological impact on israel. Yes, we will have to reassert deterrence, israel will have to convince its own population and others of its capabilities, but it is much more than that. At the end of the day, when we come out of the tunnel of the immediate threat we are in right now, there might be some opportunities. If i were sitting in riyadh or abu dhabi, if i were sitting in jerusalem, one of my big takeaways now, and i think it will still be the case in several weeks, is that the regional moderates really do have a lot to be afraid of from iran and its proxies. Their interest in joining forces, for a lot of positive reasons having nothing to do with iran, but also because of a desire to share intelligence information, technology, counter drone technology, and more, is very real. I think in the long run, iran, hezbollah, most certainly hamas, have only driven that home. Robert terrific. Thank you, matt. Before i go forward, i want to tell all of our viewing audience, if you want to try to get into this conversation after our series of opening remarks, there are two ways to do it. If you are on zoom, use the q a function at the bottom of the zoom bar. If you are on another platform, people may be viewing this on youtube, the institutes website, cspan perhaps. If you are viewing it on another platform, you can email me directly at rsatloff washingtoninstitute. Org. All right. Naomi newman, welcome. Naomi thank you very much. With your permission, i would like to start with the bottom line. I agree with my colleagues. These attacks from hamas were a total surprise for israel in all the ways that you look at it. Actually, hamas has changed the rules, and now we have to change the paradigm regarding hamas, regarding the gaza strip, also regarding the whole palestinian arena, the way the middle east is supposed to be. The aim is now toppling the hamas regime. It will take a long time, tremendous effort, and a lot of casualties regarding israel. It will not be easy but there is no other way. I think now israel, United States, the International Element needs to think, how can we redesign the shape of the middle east and the palestinian arena the day after hamas . I hope after my lecture, i will show what is not only war between israel and hamas, but it is much bigger. This is the situation. When i am talking about the middle east, i am talking especially about hezbollah and iran. Hamas got inspiration, support, funds, means and knowhow from iran. This has allowed her actually to develop tremendous military capabilities, to demonstrate them during the last four days. Actually, iran was and remains a multidimension threat, not only focused on nuclear but also regarding terror and suffering. I think also, israel needs to put focus, how can we strengthen the Palestinian Authority, to avoid the collapse of the Palestinian Authority, but also to merge any chance in the future, the Palestinian Authority may well be managed to go back to a state control there. Now, how did we get to this terrible war that started only four days ago, will last for a long time, as i assume . We actually knew about the hamas strategy. Hamas all the time talks about the great military campaign that will lead to the defeat of israel. We also speculated what it would be, the campaign. We said it would be multidimension, through the land, sea, air. Rockets, raids, kidnappings. And a multipalestinian arena. Hamas all the time talks about it, the west bank, jerusalem, the gaza strip, north border, and others , Israeli Arabs will unify and defeat israel. According to hamas, the whole campaign was actually prepared to create a condition in order to establish an Islamic State between the river and the sea. Over the years, there was wishful thinking, illusion i dont know how to talk about it but there was a thought that maybe hamas had become sovereign in the gaza strip and would become gradually more moderate. The implication to the civilian aspect would be much bigger than its obligation to the resistance and to the military capability. I must say, from time to time, we saw that hamas was totally obligated to their goals as a Terror Organization and not the civilian aspects. I can elaborate later on. Actually hamas took over the gaza strip in 2007, not by election, not by reconciliation, but by terror. At that time, they took it from the Palestinian Authority. It was part of the dna. Israel did not find any solution of how to deal with it besides imposing blockades. Also, these solutions were not without result. There it has jeopardized israel because there was always a fear there would be a humanitarian crisis in the gaza strip. And the Palestinian Authority did not want to go back to the gaza strip, not without the assistance of israel, from its point of view, and israel didnt want to go back to the gaza strip, because we had already been there and did not want to go back again. In the reality in which there is no proper solution, israel and hamas managed to create this. Partial and temporary coexistence has been created between israel and hamas. Hamas and israel kind of played a game. Israel excepts accepts the sovereignty of hamas and israel will buy from hamas a period of relative quiet. This has continued during the time. In return israel provides hamas and easing of the siege, and it was prominent mainly after military operations or after the return campaign during 2018, while hamas channeled people to the fence chained people to the fence and an act of violence and israel agreed to remove part of the siege or part of this. Now hamas, the whole time, continues to put effort to build up its military forces, focused on developing not only the gaza strip but other arenas like the west bank. Robert i have a couple messages saying they cannot hear you well enough. Naomi ok. So israel actually reduced the scope of the siege and let hamas upgrade its capabilities in the gaza strip. Then hamas managed to find another formula. The new formula was we will keep quiet on the gaza strip, but in the meantime we will send arms to the other areas, which means weapons in lebanon, syria, even to jerusalem and Israeli Arabs. So did we ask ourselves from time to time, do we find out signals that point out that hamas is becoming moderate . Of course. We always say after hamas took control of the gaza strip, we dont find any elements that show hamas became moderate. Hamas speaks to its vision, its goals, its aim. We dont see any element to show that it has become moderate. From time to time we can see, but it is pragmatic, not moderate. So this was a situation during that time. I can bring some example to show how hamas did not agree to give up the resistance and still focus on the military buildup. I think it is a fact that him up through the years. Even the Palestinian Authority suggests hamas join the plo, to accept and recognize israel, and they accept an agreement in the past. Hamas says it will not happen. In 2017 a student palestinian , a student said we will never accept israeli existence. We will continue to beef up our military forces. It is not going to be. Hamas also took advantage of the easing of israel is really israel according to the palestinian society, factories that were supposed to improve the life of gazans. Hamas took advantage in order to infiltrate arms to the west bank. People in israel let them have medical treatment in israel, and they would deliver messages to promote terrorism. All the time when hamas had the opportunity to choose between civilian aspects and military aspects, the choice was for the military aspect. As i said before, hamas was not an exclusive actor. There is also the Palestinian Authority. I think during the years, these two players were playing a game, a zerosum game. They found that the balance would change. In the past, the Palestinian Authority was stronger. Now, israel is easing the blockade on hamas, and hamas became stronger and stronger. I think this is one of the mistakes that israel did. May be we need to strengthen the Palestinian Authority. Maybe any chance the Palestinian Authority will go back to the gaza strip and take control. The huge i think important thing, my colleagues talk about this, the connection between hamas and the resistance in iran and hezbollah. The turning point was on 2021. They decided, the to put aside the understanding between israel and hamas and go into jerusalem. Then he managed to surprise israel but also to unify the old palestinian arena. It was Israeli Arabs, palestinians in the west bank, gaza, and eastern jerusalem. At this point, iran, hezbollah understood that the essence of hamas was, they need to take advantage and cooperate, not as a sponsor but much more as an ally. Together they would manage to harm israel from different fronts and they would manage to make israel weaker. From irans point of view, if israel is weaker they can focus on iran. It cannot focus on iran. This was a crucial turning point i think. I think that hamas was training for a long time. I dont know, i was not there during the last years but i am sure hamas was practicing for a long time in order to carry out these attacks. I think hamas, when it felt it has operational readiness, he they exploited the fact that israel is now weak. Also the original construction was there. But i think all of these operations indicate, from the beginning, hamas was a radical movement, and it remains a radical movement. They remain led by radical leadership and they remain true to their vision, which is to destroy and diminish israel. These are the main things. Thank you. Robert thank you. Thank you very much. Ghaith. Ghaith thank you you very much, rob. If i may, i want to start with a personal message. I say this over the last couple of days since saturday. I see a lot on social media, traditional media, attempts to explain, justify what hamas is doing. I know we will talk about policy. We need to talk policy and all of that but lets be clear. What happened is terrorism, no other way to describe it. The heinous scenes we have seen cannot be justified, nothing can justify them. We need to have that moral clarity as we approach this issue. Of course we can talk about policy issues, the conduct of the israeli response, but at the foundation, an immoral act taken by a terrorist organization intentionally hitting civilians for political gain. This we have to be there about. What i want to do today is talk more about hamas, what it is, what its objective is, and then in the bigger picture, what they are hoping to do in the west bank arena in particular. Maybe a couple of notes for policy recommendations for that region. What is hamas . Hamas, just like every other arab society, has had a component that is islamist, that is believers in the Muslim Brotherhood approach to islam. Yet traditionally, the islamists in the palestinian arena remain outside the nationalist, the liberation struggle. They were doing religious work, charity, etc. And this changed in 1987. This was the first intifada. The Muslim Brotherhood in palestine decided they needed to create their own organization that would get involved in this dynamic and hamas was created. Hamas is an acronym that stands for the israeli resistance movement. Palestine doesnt appear because they see themselves bigger than just palestine. 1980s, hamas was just an irritant, bloody and violent irritant, but not seen as a strategic threat. This changed with the oslo accords. That was the chance for hamas to distinguish itself when the Palestinian Liberation Organization bought into the idea of diplomacy and a two state solution. This was the opportunity for hamas to distinguish itself. Very strong opposition to oslo, any kind of accommodation with israel and a new commitment to violence and terror. This played out in the 1990s. There were catastrophic events after the assassination of Prime Minister itzhak rabin. Hamas and israel were engaged in a number of suicide bombings that arguably shaped the trajectory of oslo, israeli politics. But hamas real rise to prominence happened in the second intifada. They resorted to terror and violence as a way of dealing with israel. Hamas, terror and violence, what it does well. The main Secular Movement started adopting some of the hamas terror tactics. Hamas paradigm was validated. Long story short, by 2006, the intifada was ending and the Palestinian Authority called for election. Hamas runs in the election. They are smart, realizing the palestinian public at that point was still scarred from the palestinian intifada and they didnt run on a terror platform. They never denounced terror. Rather they use the palestinians vulnerability, corruption, poor governance, etc. , and they won the elections. A year and sued ensued there was tension between palestinians and hamas. In 2007, hamas took over gaza and ever since, hamas has been the governing authority in gaza. In that period, and i think my colleagues talked about this but this was interesting. Hamas used it for a number of objectives. Part of the objectives, terror buildup. There was also a political objective. Hamas saw governing territory as a vehicle to release itself into the international discourse. It was presenting itself as look, we are governing, we are , moderating. Deal with us as a legitimate authority. In doing this, they were supported by some of the regional supporters. We talk about iran being a regional supporter, and that is true. But hamas has other supporters that support the Muslim Brotherhood, and these are qatar and turkey. They were pushing the narrative, that hamas has been organizing, and dialogue with hamas in different western interlocutors. They use some clever tactics. A few years ago, they came up with a new political document that they marketed as a charter, which it does not. It was clever. They said we will accept israel , sorry, a palestinian two party state. Many in the world focus on that part of their statement, but look at the second part. We will never accept israel. Now the idea of a two state solution is anathema to what must stands for. Now with governance in gaza, although we did get some mainstreaming benefits, they also see some of the challenges with governance. Particularly the exposure of their very nature. They didnt win the they did win the elections in 2006, yet governing gaza, it was clear that they were as corrupt as the Palestinian Authority, even more intolerant than any one else. If you look at Public Opinion polling, hamas is not governing by any stretch of the imagination by being popular. They are governing by force, by oppression, etc. I would recommend a series of short interviews with gazan civilians living in gaza under hamas called whispers in gaza to give you a flavor of what it is like living under hamas. Hamas is not the only Available Power in gaza. They have an interesting love hate relationship with other factions, yet, hamas undoubtedly is the undisputed leader in gaza. There is lets move to no political way to dislodge it in the short term. Now, lets move to what happened this weekend and why did hamas do what it did. My colleagues mentioned the big picture strategic objectives, derailing the israelisaudia saudi relations, helping iran but also there were domestic political objectives of what hamas did that relate to the palestinian arena or with it within israel itself. Let me go to the israeli part. Hamas hopes that we have repeat we are at the early days of these events and we have a repeat of what happened years ago when there were clashes between hamas and israel and we saw intercommunal violence between Israeli Arabs and israeli jews. They are hoping for that and hoping members of the current Israeli Government will need those claims. We are seeing some very courageous forces coming from within Israeli Arabs. Who are urging toward deescalation. The focus of hamas has been on the west bank. They have three objectives interconnected. First, they hope that they will use the west bank as opening another front meaning using terror attacks. So far we have seen no successful terror attacks coming from the west bank. Whether they will succeed remains to be seen. They are also hoping to mobilize the public to stand up. In doing that, they had an assessment of the situation in the west bank. They have seen the weakness and fragility of the Palestinian Authority. They are hoping that the anger the public has toward the Palestinian Authority on the one hand and on the other hand towards israel will translate into mass demonstrations. So far, this is not happened yet. Last couple of days we have seen clashes and casualties yet we have not seen the mobilization. I will keep a close watch on what happens this coming friday after friday prayers. That is often a time of heightened tension. The Palestinian Authority understands these threats and is deploying to the extent that it can, Security Capabilities to prevent widescale clashes. Then an attempt to basically lead to the collapse of the Palestinian Authority. The Palestinian Authority is extremely weak today. It is weak because of its own domestic behavior. Corruption, poor governance, lack of political oversight have created a situation where most palestinians look at the Palestinian Authority as a liability, not an asset. For hamas, this creates an opening to create a vacuum then fill the vacuum. I will conclude maybe with a couple of policy recommendations to u. S. Policy. It is too early in the game to talk about very specific policy recommendations, yet i would keep two things in mind as we approach the next two weeks. No matter how this war ends, and we dont know how it will end, however the war ends we have to make sure that hamas does not end up being able to demonstrate any win from its use of terror. There were instances in the past where previous administrations were willing to consider ceasefires that would have given hamas certain benefits. I think its key that we make sure we do not do this. Part of this is to make sure that when various mediators come in, we open to allies in the region that agree with our objectives and not allow others , who are hamas supporters, to come and lead these diplomatic efforts. Yes, we will have to deal with Companies Like turkey and qatar when it comes to hostages, but at the end of the day, there are allies who share our view. Jordan, the uae, and others. They should be leading the diplomacy, and we as the United States should be supporting that. Thank you and i look over to the conversation. Terrific. Thank you to all of my colleagues. We will take a few questions now. I have a long list of questions on the q a bar as well as sent in by email. I will try to bring them all together. First, i have a question about hamas brutality. What we have seen, weve all seen terrorist attacks before. Lots of innocents dying. It is highly unusual to see the purposeful bayonetting of babies or raping, then murdering, young girls in the context of terrorist attack. What is going on . What message is trying to be sent by this extent of human brutality . To be honest, i was not surprised. I think, again, hamas and many in the Muslim Brotherhood movement have tried to distinguish themselves from isis al qaeda. We are freedom fighters. If you look at the discourse, the narrative, the arabic messaging that hamas has been engaged in since its creation, its all about focusing on this kind of violence. This is part of what hamas stands for. In the past, they have had the not had the opportunity to do this. Today, they have had the opportunity to do this. I am shocked, disgusted by what i have seen in al jazeera tv channel that was celebrating the humanity of hamas fighters. There is a narrative that has been pushed by the Muslim Brotherhood movement, hamas. What we saw on saturday i think exposes anyone who is engaged in hamas knows it if they approach the palestinian side, none of this is surprising. Hamas tried to portray this as something literally, to use their words, pious and devoted. Words matter. When you spend years othering and portraying the people on the other side of the fence as being responsible for every suffering you have ever had and being the epitome of evil, and then you wind people up and you give them weapons of war and you break down a fence, and you fling them in a direction, then you are responsible for what happens. This is not different than anything we have seen from hamas before operationally but also in terms of brutality. Its a different type of brutality to blow up a bus. To skewer people. Its a different type of thing. I think it really does show what hamas is about not only in terms of what they train their people to do but what their people have actually done. The words they use and the radicalization that they use to mobilize people literally to violence. For all those who have seen hamas as something somewhat different, maybe people engaged in violence, this puts all of that to bed, in spades. May i have a word . Please. When you teach your Younger Generation the jews are the sons of pigs and monkeys, this is what you get. Thank you. It was mentioned earlier in the conversation about irans role. This is a highly politicized topic in washington. I would like to be deeper among our panelists on this question. The wall street journal report about asserting that iran had operational decisionmaking for what happened this weekend. What is your view of this . How much of this can be substantiated . Would you be surprised if, indeed, this were substantiated, and how will this begin to affect israeli decisionmaking as it looks forward beyond the immediate . And of course the immediate occupies attention in israel. Theres no way hamas does this solely on its own. It is a matter of fact. Its literally a public media fact, you can google it, to see that hamas and hezbollah and israeli personnel have been meeting in beirut and tehran over the past weeks and months. At least some of these meetings have talked about having an operational joint war room of some sort. I think a lot of people myself people, honestly myself included, saw that, heard that, put it someplace because they talk about this stuff all the time. I dont think we are likely to find that there were force people on the ground that there were iranians deciding you people go in that direction. Hamas doesnt need that. But the likelihood that iran and hezbollah were providing strategic guidance is extremely high, and here i want to point out that this series of attacks, this exact series of attacks comes straight out of the hezbollah playbook. Israels Northern Command has been practicing and training to counter for several years now , whether coming over land, underground, in the air they. There were plans by the idf to counter hezbollah plots to enter israeli territory, kill as many people as possible, take over towns, and raise the hezbollah flag for that media moment, capture as many people as possible, take them back into lebanon, all while shooting rockets. This is literally out of the hezbollah playbook, and it part of the shock is that it happened but it didnt happen where it was expected to happen, but this has hezbollah and iran fingerprints all over it. We will need to wait sometime before this all comes out in detail. I dont think we are going on any branch, limb to say that hamas was talking and working with others. By the way one second. Naomi . Traditionally, there is a tie to a relationship between hamas and iran. They managed to cross the gap, and the whole time after, when hamas was on blockade, iran continued to put knowledge, put means. There was only one time when hamas was trying to take the movement to another place. Closer to otherwise but the two main and dominant leaders now, they are so close to the iranians. They were meeting in hezbollah on a regular basis. They were meeting, they were coordinating, they were getting money and knowledge. If somebody looks for and speaks persian, its ridiculous. Hamas wouldnt manage to get so much capability, military capability as a state, if it wasnt iran. Iran is the ally. Iran is the other of hamas. Thank you. You wanted to add on this . I just wanted to say that they knew that they have commitments from the iranians. They wouldnt go into this kind of operation any other way. I think at this moment it is sure that if the Israeli Division stopped getting into gaza, there would be a major response from hezbollah. Thats the only explanation of what has happened. Ok. Thank you. I want to clarify the comment that i made earlier. I want to thank one of our viewers for sending in this note. When i referred to one of the unique aspects of how what is going on this weekend is different than 9 11, and i referred to the brutality, citing the rape that is part of what is going on, i use the term sexuality. Of course, it is not sexuality , it is brutality. A rape is a violent act, not an act of sexuality. I just used the term to indicate what is going on, not to suggest anything otherwise, but thank you for helping clarify, for me and our viewers, what i was referring to. I have a lot of questions from viewers about the its very early days but an endgame for gaza. Israel targets hamas leadership. Completely, totally, when the dust settles, when the fog clears, is israel returning to gaza . Is israel reabsorbing gaza . Is israel handing the keys to an international force, as was suggested by the New York Times columnist Brett Stevens . Is israel handing it to some local gaza family . Who is going to be running the whatever passes for anna administration in gaza when the dust clears . Does anyone know . Im sorry . First we do it, then we think. First do it, then we think. Theres one option. Has anyone thought this through yet . The answer to that is no. The Immediate Reaction is a group that did something so horrible has to be removed. Its not clear to me how you literally remove all of hamas. In recent hours, some of the statements i have heard from israel have changed. Its no longer destroying hamas, removing them. It is decapitating their leadership and operational capability. Its very likely that, at the end of the day, if israel can achieve its security goals and severely cut hamas off the knees and make it so the group is not capable of doing anything like this, or much less, at least for a long time, then they will pull out. There will still be whatever is left of hamas leadership to run the gaza strip. Then the day after conversation will not be who runs the gaza strip but what are the conditions for any type of resumption of aid, etc. , if in fact hamas continues to rule but , but i dont think the israelis or anyone else has any interest in going in and trying to rule gaza again. There is no answer to this question, obviously. This is why israel has not done this in the previous wars. Yet i would say two things to keep in mind. One is in the end, whats happening in gaza does not just impact israel, it impacts egypt security, the bigger ships in the region, and the solution i believe should be one that is coordinated with israel and other stakeholders need to step in and play their own role. That is one. Number two, ultimately the Palestinian Authority cannot do it. It cannot do it cannot do because of credibility, etc. I think a serious effort should be done to rebuild the Palestinian Authority throwing money at it, because we know what will happen to the money, with all the corruption, but engaging in a clear strong direction, Institution Building project to enable it again to fill a vacuum in the west bank and later on in gaza. Any other remarks . All right, friends, we have reached the end of our time for this program. As i said at the top of the hour, this is the first of a series of programs that we will be having here at the Washington Institute. You will soon hear news of a program on thursday that will address the potential for escalation on israels northern border. Hamas, hezbollah, the syriangolan aspect, and what iran is doing behind the scenes. Then, in the days and weeks to come, we will be back with further written and programmatic things that you will find on our website. Just to reiterate, this is a fundamental moment of inflection. I hope that, wherever you are, you appreciate the depth of everything that has gone on in the middle east this weekend. And begin to appreciate the seismic repercussions this will have, for all of our preconceptions, all of our paradigms as we begin to approach what i regrettably think is a new middle east, not the new middle east that we originally thought we would have , a middle east of peace and common prosperity, but, regrettably, a new middle east focused on this great challenge that we now face. Cspan is your unfiltered view of government, funded by these Television Companies and more, including sparklight. The greatest town on earth is a place you called home. At sparklight its our home to an right now we are facing our greatest challenge. Thats why sparklight is working roundtheclock to keep you connected. We are doing our part so its easier to do yours. 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