Chinas growing influence in the region. This is from aspens security forum. We have a wonderful panel and today we are going to discuss the middle east in 38 minutes and 55 seconds. We will take your questions. I want to start with the former foreign minister. At the dinner last night. Jane hartman hosted a dinner and there was a disturbingly excellent magic show put on by the former acting director of the cia, john mclachlan. And jane got good at saying tagger abracadabra. I think the bitter thing john was saying, getting back to the theme that underlies all of these sessions, is really anyone who watched the magic show last night is wondering, how the heck did he do that . And it is the metaphor that we know it alls do not know it all. We also thought the government some lessons about checks and balances and that there are some limitations to power uh but this is the substance if you were a neighbor of israel in the region and its clear that israel is the superpower in the region. Would you be hopeful about the future or pessimistic about israel if you want . Its an opportunity to say to our neighbors those that dislike the existence of israel in the region dont miscalculate the internal situation in israel internally this is a very important moment historically because if we have some time when israel was born as the nation state for the jewish people its written in our declaration of independence that is well within israel we have equal rights to all its citizens and when an Israeli Government camp and was elected but is changing this this is not legitimate so these are no judicial reforms its not about this article its not about balance between different authorities its about substance and this is what we are fighting. It is an opportunity to say to our neighbors that do not like the existence of israel in the region, do not miscalculate the situation in israel because this is a very important moment historically. If we have some time, when israel was born as the nation state for the jewish people its written in our declaration of independence that within israel we have equal rights to all its citizens and when an Israeli Government camp and was elected. But it is changing and this is not legitimate. Its not about balance between different authorities, its about substance and that is what we are fighting. I want to jump to dena. Dinas husband dave mccormicks in the audience and he tells me i am so lucky because this is four awesome incredible women in this forum. I want to talk about the Abraham Accords. We will talk about iran and intergenerational complexities but when you look at what institutions are building that might create Something Different than the mess of the last many decades its abraham woods. So tell us about your role moving them forward and if it is speeding up or slowing down . I worked to with president bush and secretary rice with my colleagues and before we got on stage we were saying what a difference 20 years makes. I remember so clearly traveling to the region with condi rice and what a tough time that was after 9 11 and how much she was urging those leaders to recognize what was happening in their countries, to recognize the yearning of their people but also how they had to shut down terrorist financing, they had to recognize the extremist elements within their populations, and those were pretty tough conversations. You fast forward 20 or so years, and i was in riyadh at that summit. 54 arab and Muslim Leaders hosted by king salman and actually hearing deputy crown prince saying, then deputy crown prince saying we need to return to a more moderate form of islam. That was a pretty Stunning Development and if you think about the horror of 9 11 and to finally have a partner in the region of not a perfect partner none of these allies are perfect. How imperfect or perfect is mohammad bin salman . Hes obviously made some major mistakes but hes also reforming saudi arabia and so maybe the way to ask the question is what is in the interest of the United States. And so it is undeniable that there is economic reform, its undeniable that theres political reform, and theres also massive mistakes and steps back but its in our interest that the reforms continue. We could not find one imam after 9 11. We have to cut off this financing to terrorists and we have to think about the the culture that were in so fast forward that was really the beginning of the Abraham Accords what started to happen is a recognition with the gulf countries that they needed to partner more with israel that iran as a growing threat that really brought them together and i just want you to know that goalies not representing iran. He is just going to talk about how she is an expert. I did not want you to feel like you are carrying that. Its pretty remarkable to have those six gulf countries uh normalized with israel on a stage here at the aspen ideas fast thanks to chairwoman margot , pritzker, she invited princess rima who actually said not only do we want to potentially normalized with israel. Is there a chance, i remember a Regional Forum was a way to get nations that hated each other in asia to sit down every once in a while and talk and over time trade deals developed. Is there a chance this eventually becomes an alliance . I think it already is. There is an Abraham Accords caucus in the house and senate. Many new funds investing across those countries. That is what is most needed. Job creation, investment in new areas and the Abraham Accords is starting that. Steve take us to iran and give us a sense of the factors they are think matter when it comes to looking at questions of stability in the middle east and where it is going. I say this with caution because we saw millions on the street in tel aviv. There are millions all over the streets but tell us what is going on in iran and do the protests we see matter . Thank you for clarifying that i am not representing iran. [laughter] but hopefully i will better represent the people of iran on this topic. The protests that happened last september, we are coming up to the one year anniversary. I would like to provide context about who the iranian people are because it is important. Iran has a population thats 60 percent gen z, these are very young people. Only 5 boomers. 20 under the age 35. The rest are in 40s and 50s. It is a young, highly educated country. The Younger Generation has a 98 literacy rate. 96 on average. A very high College Graduation rate. 40 of the iranian workforce have higher education. So this is a very connected, educated population that really wants to be come become part of the mainstream world. And they are dealing with a theocracy that refuses to reform and is becoming more arrogant as time goes on. The significance of the recent protests is the Morality Police beat a young woman to death. But what is new about these protests is the combination of those who participated. Old and young, rich and poor, all parts of Iranian Society including hyper nationalists. Iranian protests used to happen every decade since 2017 to 21 it sort of was happening annually and in 2022 it became semiannual. And because the Morality Police who was reportedly disbanded is now back, my guess is that its going to keep going on. We have not seen the end yet. Steve 20,000 people in prison and 500 dead and Morality Police are coming back to now reinforce now enforcing he job and scars scarves hijabs and scarves. A lot of the western world is not familiar with the guatemala clerical mentality. With the mullah clerical mentality. They do not understand it is a particular mentality. For those who grew up in iran, what they know about the mullah is that negotiating with them doesnt work. There is a tremendous amount of duplicity and backstabbing. So negotiating does not work. When you think about it, in four decades, one has the western world on to hold iran back . Steve sarah, farah, you will have been reaching out to lots of different muslim communities and i also saw you try to transform ignorant americans who thought that being a muslim meant being a terrorist. Walk us through those frame changes and the general generational change in the very young middle east, what is the prospect for this becoming a stable story down the road rather than a depressing one . Thank you for the sentiments. I want to say a couple of things around the changes that have happened around the world and how we think about the people who live in the middle east, the societies. Dena was right when she said lets remember where we started 20 years ago when we were all wringing our hands trying to understand what to do. And the honor to serve in various capacities meant i had to talk with Civil Society and understand culture and society and know what the young people were thinking. Because in Foreign Policy land we are not in the trenches. We are in the sky talking with the most elite people about what is happening so for us to understand the dramatic demographic will shift, the arab youth report just out talked about generation z. Is baby boomers, then generation x, generation y, generation z, and then generation alpha is children. Im raising this because none of us understand how dramatic gen z experiences growing up as the first generation where this is fluid for them and it matters because as we try to unpack the changes we have talked about, the big thing we are missing is cultural intelligence, understanding what is really happening with the trends on what this generation feels. Heritage is really important to gen z in saudi arabia. Their hobbies are influenced by youtube. Aspirations are influenced by instagram. Shouldnt we be looking at the cultural trends taking place . So when i took part in this we were trying to explain to the American Public what was happening because a terrorist organization had attacked in the name of islam but to go back and try to make them understand who they are. So these points around learning about society and culture and where the shifts are determined the future of our success about this region. Steve my friend David Ignatius and i do a lot of global conferences and i try to go and talk with real people and get a sense away from groupthink of the conference and one thing i worry about is i am not sure the american brand is in good shape in the middle east. That many look at russia or china as more important for their futures than the u. S. David, have you run into that . Yes. Steve that was not even a plant. The american brand is in trouble i think. Do you agree on what should we do by way of talking with people . Do people see us as a player that can help Bring Solutions . Some of my friends in abu dhabi said it was nice i was coming to meet young female high tech entrepreneurs because they usually have people who want to talk about oil and gas. So im interested in your perspective. We Work Together while the american brand was in real trouble in a difficult time and i think there is the american Foreign Policy brand and then there is the American People and there is a big difference. One of the most interesting things happening in the middle east today when you talk about talk to large global investors, they will say the u. S. China thing is not going away and we have to think about that as we think about investing in asia. There is a land war in europe, likely economic recession coming to europe, the middle east might be the stable region. In investors say that, it says a lot. I think people are not as focused on our Foreign Policy anymore. They are developing their own alliances. Who wouldve thought we would see the Chinese Foreign minister in between the iranian and Saudi ArabianForeign Ministers . I think they are hedging their bets. But the people to people part is strong because of the youth in the region and investments and because of women. Maybe women now of course get to drive in saudi arabia, but they have been working more than the men so there is a an increasing role that womens Economic Empowerment is so central. In one of the rallies, i was speaking with the women in iran and they said i said when i look at them it is so inspiring. I am thinking about their parents and grandparents who had no support for the revolution. It is a new middle east and for many years it is clear it was connected to the initiatives and they were not make normalization with israel without peace between israel and palestinians. Palestine cant afford it but israel cannot so there are those in israel who are exploiting the situation saying we can make peace and [indiscernible] what is important for me is somebody believing that the only way for israel to keep the values as a Jewish Democratic state is to separate the breach with palestinians. Steve is there any sort of chance of alignment with netanyahu with what you said . No. I was the chief negotiator for peace when netanyahu was the prime minister. Usually he is willing to do something but he needs deniability so he basically asks the u. S. To draft a proposal for peace. He agreed to every letter in the proposal but unfortunately we did not get an answer from palestine. But now there is no chance. No coalition. When our need to keep the jewish majority is separate from the palestinians [indiscernible] but for part of the coalition the National Ways is greater israel is about the lands not democracy. When we speak about democracy we look at the u. S. But truthfully there was time in which the president of the u. S. Himself crossroad lines when it comes to democracy and when trump was in power the tweeting in english and hebrew was the same. When the president of the greatest democracy in the world crosses the line it doesnt exist in other players and authoritarian leaders take advantage and do the same. Steve i want you to comment on the american brand. There are a lot of things coming down the pike with iran. U. N. Restrictions on ballistic missiles. Iran giving short range drones to russia. No diminishment of activities in the region. The u. S. Has been torn apart over what to do. The jcpoa was annan that out. Was in and to then out. A complicated nightmare. Is the american brand losing when it comes to dealing with security . When it comes to iran the american brand with the iranian people it has been on the rise since the revolution. During the obama administration, they were chanting in farsi in the streets, obama is with us. So iranian people have a tremendous amount of respect for the american brand but it is not on the rise with the iranian government. It is falling down. The partisanship in the u. S. Has been toxic in the framework that that iranian Islamic Republic is looking at the u. S. As a weak country because we are constantly airing dirty laundry in public. Obama kept congress out of the jcpoa negotiations and tom cotton writes a letter to the iranian president Iranian Parliament saying if there is not a treaty it is not a deal. What message is being sent . Where is the american brand . It reminds me of community when hostages were taken. Khomeini when the hostages were taken. The Islamic Republic is still thinking about it. For four decades we were in and out, in and out. Neither republicans or democrats have the upper on the upper hand but if they actually started thinking together and used all of the tools of Foreign Policy, whether it is negotiations or deterrence or defense, if they used all of it and stood up to the israel stood up to the Islamic Republic telling them you cant just constantly get away with this, for example selling drugs to russia drones to russia. What did the western world do about it . Where is the unity for a government on the cusp of developing a Nuclear Weapon . Steve 30 seconds. Look at libya and north korea. Libya gave up ukraine gave up Nuclear Warheads and what happened . Why do we think around whatever not develop a Nuclear Weapon . Steve when i go to the middle east and talk to people, they do not feel respected or connected. They feel like they are a sideshow. What is your insight in to how you make more Americans Care . Six in 10 young people in the middle east think America Needs to get out. 60 dont want to surround. They believe the uae and russia have influence in that china and turkey are allies. The problem. Remember what i said about generation z, there are a moment almost 3 billion generations the people on earth. If we were thinking about the future instead of shortterm we would spend time thinking about hundreds and hundreds of soft power tools in the middle east. Cultural diplomacy works. We would know the power of the american brand on culture slow and fast. The state department is not getting enough funding on the issue of the soft power but it is on the intelligence side. I dont know how to create a strategy for the middle east of cultural intelligence isnt part of it. Wonderful things are happening. Morocco and egypt and the uae looking at favorable change in the relationship with israel is great. The Menorah Center is a great opportunity to take it forward. What we should be doing is on the state department side, scale up the kinds of programs we need to do and invest in the ngos across the middle east doing this exact thing, divining gen z leaders and making sure we make americans understand why it is important for us to have a stable middle east. Steve i am obsessed with the uaes hope mission to mars and they want to go to the moon and it has a female astronaut and there is a fascination with all the stuff we call modern but it does science and education. The big money is investing in this science. Are there opportunities on that front to play a bigger role we are not paying enough attention to . The uae is doing very well economically. The Energy Disruption around the world means they have a lot of resources and they are investing them in biotite and life sciences, climate transition, and they are doing it because they see these as the future industries that will matter. We are not being innovative in ways we could partner. There is a street in abu dhabi where there is a catholic strip catholic church, synagogue, and mosque all next to each other. Security and the expectation from the u. S. When the u. S. Is asking the International Community to choose a side. The expectations from the u. S. Is when something is happening is to react. I am not thinking about sending boots on the ground to different places but this is expected of the United States and their is no factum in the middle east because its the toughest neighborhoods in the world. Steve this is the Straight Talk express. We have a lot of questions. Lets get some from the front and then we will go around the room. I am tony bishop. Thank you for being here. I am a millennial. Please dont forget about us. [laughter] iran specifically and also other opportunities, are they windows for democracy export on our end and how do we then engage young people from this side of the pond to all the way over there to sort of use this as a tool for Youth Engagement . I wanted to back up for a moment here. Ron is often times the bellwether of the middle east. When the Islamic Republic launched the elect revolution that is when the islamic things started. The Tony Blair Institute did a poll about what percent of iranians are religious on it is 30 . 70 of americans identify with a religion. So democracy in many ways has already been exported because they have seen the other side and they dont like it. I am a special forces officer. What is your assessment for syria the countries in the region on the u. S. . To be, you know syria. Yes. [laughter] we cannot speak about iran without talking about what they are doing with syria and the tension between hezbollah and syria. In the last few years, russia was in syria with assad and now things are changing so maybe its an opportunity for the u. S. To be more involved in the situation of lebanon and syria. Shouldnt the u. S. Do more to support the iranian people and demonstrators in what form should not take . Of course we should be doing more to support the people. I talked about Civil Society and the way forward. I strongly suggest that you read what goal he has already written on what we can be doing. We have a toolkit of soft power that has been exceptional around the world but what i dont understand today is why we are not deploying it in places like ron places like iran. There is greater chinese one activity in the middle east then ever before. Which of the u. S. Do about it . And its not just in the middle east. Xi jinping has been clear about his ambition around the world, africa, the middle east. They are clear about their intentions to compete and win economically and politically and forge more allies around the world and they are doing it. They are not particularly great partners. They come and search for lithium. But they bring their own workers and they are not creating jobs on the ground so they are not being the most effective. I think middle east leaders are hedging. They do not want to hear that they have to pick one side of the other. They have to work with china and us and i think they are forging their own path the makes it difficult for us to have the influence we want. The greatest thing this country has ever done that helped people believe and appreciate in america was pep far, what president bush did throughout africa. A lot going on in lebanon in the past two years. Does lebanon have implications for the wider middle east in your assessment . Yesterday i read about the tension rising between hezbollah and israel. They said the internal situation in israel, it looks like it is testing and [indiscernible] i want to add something about democracy and the young generation. They lost trust in the old generation and administrations and we need to rebrand what democracy means and why it is important for them and to speak in their language. And we did not raise the issue of global warming. Their expectations are much higher than what we deliver. My question is about the effort to educate young girls in stem education. And in more than just stem but across other disciplines. In the middle east, how many female leaders are there and what example are we giving to the young women in the middle east . We have to do more to make them rise. There are more stem grads who are female in the middle east than there are in the United States. A