Chuck blah house is back ,o talk about Social Security chuck strategist at blah house come as we sit here eightmonth into the pandemic, with the resultant economic downturn, he talks first about what covid impact has been on the health of the Social Security system in this country. Nott it probably will surprise your viewers to see that it is having a negative effect. The recession that has been , wages have covid gone down. All of that weakens the Financial Sense of full security. Ate looking at a painful security programs even before covid, and this has made the situation more urgent than before. It . Urgent is what is the status of Social Security right now . Guest i would say it is extremely urgent. Wen before the pandemic hit, were risking getting past the point of no return with the Social Security finances. The five readjustment that we have to make if we want to continue to have our Social Security program that has been financed and historically the weight has been, five of those changes have been difficult to overcome, and there is another aspect in which things are becoming urgent. The pandemic having an effect on worker wages, and of course Social Security benefits are tied to the growth of worker wages, so unless there is legislative action soon, people who were born in 1960 or so risk a sudden cut in their Social Security benefits. So lawmakers are going to have to legislate to deal with all of this. The good news is there are a lot of things we can do to make Social Security more fair, work better, work better, more aggressive and more equitable, and many of the things will slow cost at the same time as strengthening system finances. So there are opportunities here, but they will be driven by always something that we hope you end up talking about when you join us. I want to start first on the shortterm executive actions. President trump it was back in august she signed an executive order allowing American Workers payroll tax contributions to be deferred until the end of the year. Explain the why and what the impact will be. Of course will be the motivation to try to give businesses, workers, employers, a helping hand in the context of the recession. Obviously having to pay payroll tax is a significant cost the seo suited with employment, and was to provide relief at a time where we are struggling to find ways to help people keep their jobs to stay employed. The motivation was very benign. Having said that, from a Social Security perspective, it is problematic because the payroll tax is the lifeblood of Social Security. You cut into payroll tax selection even into a minor way, you are worsening the urgency of the Social Security shortfall. It is certainly not something i would have recommended for similar reasons. During president obamas administration. My own view as a Social Security trustee admittedly, im cannot cut Social Security taxes. T do we know how much do we know how much is deferred, and is there anyway it can be forgiven by congress in 2021 . Guest i dont know how many businesses chose to collect this. That any hope would be deferred payroll tax would not be forgiven because instead of just being a delay in the collection of payroll tax revenues and Social Security that Social Security desperately needs, it would be a permanent loss in revenue to the Social Security program and force more difficult changes with respect to benefits. While i am certainly in favor of giving relief to workers, to the unemployed, to people who are really trying to hang onto their jobs and their businesses, i just dont think the Social Security payroll tax is the right way to do it. The phone lines are split up this way. Democrats, 2027488000. Republicans, 2027488001. Ndependents, 2027488003 for Social Security recipients, s 2027488002 ,. If you are on Social Security, 2027488003. Talk to us what you know about dday right now . What is the day that Social Security begins owing more money out then it collects . Guest i will answer that and preface it by saying that i used tocourse of people i used caution people not to spend so much time on the dates. Social security started paying out more benefits payments then it was collecting since 2010. Since that time, the benefits payments have been cap flowing because the trust fund is able to cash in on interest credits it has earned, cash in some of the balance in the trust fund to keep full benefits flowing. The date prepandemic that we the trustcting, where fund levels were to be completed 2034 ordepleted were 2035. But i caution people not to depend on that date because by the time that rolls around, it if youtoo late to were to completely cut off all new benefit payments through 2024, 2034, 2035, there the window of opportunity, back in the process of closing now. You cannot really think of it as iny incurring occurring 2030. Cleveland,rst from ohio, line for democrats. Go ahead. Caller first of all, would they increase our Social Security benefits by the first of the year . And if trump refused to leave office, how would he be removed . Guest the second part of that question i think i am going to dance away from. That is an important question that is on many peoples minds, and goes far beyond the source of my expertise on Social Security. I dont anticipate a Social Security benefit increase being implemented before january of 2021. One of the things i found in my study, which might be counterintuitive, is that if you want to make Social Security more progressive and fair, the last thing we should do is a broader Social Security benefit expansion. The reason for that is that if you look at the various ways with Social Security, it is moving money around. The people who are losing the most money under the program tend to be younger workers, people just coming in to pay payroll taxes. Whereas those who have been the biggest gainers from increasing income inequality over the last several decades are people who are much more likely to be beneficiaries in the years ahead than they are to the payroll tax wage earning workers. So if we were to do an acrosstheboard benefit expense expansion, what would happen is we would be taking money away from people who are getting treated the worst, giving more money to people who are being treated the best, and we would also be doubling down on various regressive and counterproductive forms of Income Redistribution throughout the program. While i understand the political appeal of doing a benefit expansion for Social Security, from a fairness standpoint and from the programs effectiveness standpoint, it is the worst possible thing to do. Late october from in morning consult. One of the reasons we wanted to talk to chuck blahouse about this, aggressive Social Security reforms are needed. You just talked about one of them. What are some others . Guest let me give you an example. There is a benefit in Social Security that is paying the benefit does not recognize parenting is done by twoearner couples or single mothers, single parents. Theres a different allocation of responsibility in states in america than there were in the early 20th century. The way the senate is structured, if you are a single mother earning minimum wage, the benefit you are in under Social Security is theally much less than benefit someone else gets if a stayathome, mary the richest person they know, do not pay any federal taxes. It is these sorts of regressive incomes that diverse resources away from people who need them. They add unnecessarily to the system. Host until the bottom of the blahoue are with charles s. Folks on the line for you right now, including tommy in kentucky, independent. Good morning. Good morning. Glad you could take my call. I worked in the coal mines in kentucky about all my life. My question is, how can they pay s money for the recounts . How can all this go on and the rich people keep getting richer, but the only ones [indiscernible] for people benefits. I would like a reply to that. Thank you. Guest i think that is a great question. Backgrounddiscussing about how Social Security works. Social securitys of a reunion get them all in the federal budget. To be a selfd financing system. That perception that people under Social Security have earned their benefits by paying payroll taxes to whole life is one of the reason Social Security benefits have always been as reliable and sure as they have been, because you do not have the same sort of frequent political renegotiation for benefits that you have been programs that are socalled welfare programs, designed to poor more people only people only. Those were constantly reassessing what benefits should people get, should there be how much should we pay, etc. With that sort of political privilege comes responsibility. That only continues under Social Security if we are willing to toe the choices Necessary Balance the programs obligations. Than it would be subject to the same sort of recurring for benefitns levels and they would be a lot less secure in the manner the caller referred to. Host what is the best way to do that if congress was willing to do something, raising the eligibility age, increasing the limit of what payroll compensation would apply to . What is the best way to do it . Guest i have my own subjective views about what the best way to do things his. As an analyst, i would tell people we are now at a point where it is very difficult to solve the problem without doing all of the above. Back in 1983, they did a. Olution we are facing a shortfall much larger than the one they faced in 1983. Any adjustment we would have to would have to be substantially larger now than was made then. My own personal view is that we would actually we would have better policy if we did solutions primarily because if you want to make the system fair according to when you were born and you want to have different generations treated comparably under the program and you want to have a truly Progressive Solutions of people who have inn the biggest gainers income inequality make a substantial contribution to solve the problem. It is very difficult to do that would only tax increases. That is a subjective view. Host utah. This is lynn. Good morning. Good morning. Thank you. I was one of the people who did start drawing Social Security when i turned 66 and became eligible. I waited another 2. 5 years in order to increase my monthly pension amount. Time, i did not of the months that i had paid in advance for medicare. I did not receive reimbursement back for it. And i was told that if i waited another year, i will receive, eventually, i can fill out some forms and receive that. That only amounts to about 135. But secondly, i was told because i took my benefit in the middle of the year rather than at the beginning of the calendar year, i would also have my amount down to the 100 mark. Ands supposed to get 1555, i have just been calling the Salt Lake City local number. This is what i am being told, is that eventually, Social Security will figure it all out and reimburse me. I only started drawing seven months ago. Host let me turn it over to. Chuck that i i feel badly cannot speak more directly to your situation. Obviously there are a lot of particulars that are