President ial election and what to expect from a Biden Administration. And Mccain Institute heard from former obama and Mccain Campaign managers, and a white house correspondent, Maggie Haberman. This is one hour and 10 minutes. Good afternoon and i would like to welcome you to the second part of the Mccain Institute Straight Talk live and my clock is ringing. Im so sorry. Thank you to our eminently qualified panelists, the Campaign Managers for both the mccain and obama campaigns, rick davis and david plus, election law expert trevor potter, and New York Times white house correspondent, Maggie Haberman. , they by alex wagoner will offer their analysis on what will surely be an insightful discussion on this National Election held just nine days ago and still counting. Which of thel us last outcomes surprise them and andh met their expectations its effect on american politics in the months and years to come. Thise many questions about wild and Unusual Campaign as i suspect all of you do. And i cant wait to hear our panelists take them on. Littley be allowed a editorializing, i would like to say a few words on behalf of my husband on the importance of the american election. Thatbelieved selfgovernment was the only moral government and every human being on earth was entitled to it. He believed it was americas great because in the world and he served it with unwavering dedication. He loved nothing as much as traveling abroad to observe the first free elections held in countries emerging from decades of tierney. So moved, even to tears sometimes, to see again the joy, the hope, and the faces of people who had long been oppressed and were now claiming their freedoms and equal justice by exercising their right to choose who would govern them. For all that we take for granted, our elections are a sacred endeavor and we should respect them as such. They are the source of our strength. Our enemies know that and they are trying to reverse that as we speak, to use our elections to weaken us. That is why they spend so much doubt on theo cast integrity of our election process. A democracyda in that is as corrupt as their own regimes are. Joe biden was elected our next president and he will soon be fully certified as the winner. On january 20, he will be sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. Pretending that there is some doubt about this for the sake of thugscs is doing these worldwide, doing their work for them. I feel certain john, if he were still here, would be making the same point emphatically. It is in the American Peoples vital interest at the transition from the incumbent administration to the Biden Administration is orderly as it was thorough when the transition from the Obama Administration to the Trump Administration. And i hope american patriots on both sides of this see it for what it is. That is the end of my brief editorial and now i will turn it over to alex and our panel to explain just how we got here. Thank you. Former Vice President joe biden will win pennsylvania and nevada, putting him over the 270 electoral votes he needs to become the 46th president of the United States. On this program exactly one month ago, some of our most agile political minds ok the video alex can you hear me . Can anyone hear me . Im just going to keep talking. Apologies. I blame zoom. Thank you, cindy and we all hope there is going to be an orderly transition soon. My own resting heart rate has tripled in the last week alone. Thank you to everyone joining us today. This is Straight Talk live, the second installment of a twopart series from the Mccain Institute examining the 2020 election. Im alex wagoner and its great to be with you this afternoon. In part one of this program, one month ago, which feels like a lifetime ago, some of our most agile political minds discuss the fate of the president ial election and boldly main sub predictions for what was to come in november. Made somedly predictions for was to come in november. Its fairly certain what has happened but a sizable portion of the country remains unconvinced. Because of this, there are a plethora of pressing issues to discuss, including ongoing legal actions from the Trump Administration, the biden transition, the very crowded agenda for the incoming urgently,and, most whether it is possible for the United States to come together and find Common Ground or if our divisions will grow deeper. Today, we are once again joined by some of the sharpest minds in politics to discuss the ways forward for the United States and the world. First, i would like to introduce chair trevor potter, founder and president of the Campaign Legal center. He served as general counsel to john mccains 2000 and 2008 president ial campaign and will give us an update on the current legal issues related to the election. He will tell us what we can expect from the lawsuits coming out of the Trump Administration that are challenging the real it the Election Results. Welcome, trevor. While we have the tradition in this country of the loser in the election conceding, thats not a constitutional requirement. If President Trump loses this election and wants to say he doesnt think it was fair or he thinks as he said when he one last time, millions of illegal votes cast, he can say that, but it doesnt change the outcome. Alex you go right ahead. Trevor good to be with you all today. In the past couple days, Vice President biden has been declared president elect by the ap and a number of tv and cable networks. This reflects his apparent wins and states having more than 270 electoral votes. Up,he current total holds he will have earned around 306 Electoral College votes, which President Trump termed a landslide when he got that number four years ago. He will have slipped arizona, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania and georgia. We all understand these are unofficial results published by state Election Officials and they still need to go ahead and canvassed them, which means check them and produce final numbers. State where the totals are sufficiently close, georgia, that there will be an official recount, a hand recount, and there are two other states, nevada and wisconsin, where the losing candidate may ask for a recount and trump has said he will do so. The important thing to understand about these recounts is that they are unlikely to change any state Election Results. The 200 are normally in to 300 vote range. These margins are 20,000 in wisconsin for biden, 14 in georgia, nevada, around 20. So it is unlikely they will have any effect on the certifications coming out of those states. Furthermore, Vice President biden does not need those three states to get to 270 Electoral College votes. If he even were to lose all three recounts, he would still be the Electoral College winner. This explains the Trump Campaigns current negation strategy where they have filed suits in michigan and with much bigger vote margins in those states, 45,000 four biden in pennsylvania and rising and 140 5000 in michigan. Arizona, which is closer, does not allow recounts in the circumstance. So in all of those states, it looks as though the Trump Campaign is in court or will be in court asking federal court judges to stop the certification process. Those lawsuits say basically that there is a problem with mailin ballots and the fact they are counted in a different process than the votes fed into the machine by voters on election day and that represents what is called an equal protection problem under the bush v gore decision. They also say there may have been fraught in those states and they were not sure because they didnt have enough election observers close enough to follow. And they finally say they have some evidence of dead voters or other people who moved out of state and voted anyway. I dont believe these lawsuits are actually going anywhere. The mailin Ballot System particular should have been brought before the election and there simply no way the federal courts are going to throw out two point 5 million votes in pennsylvania, 40 of the total cast in that state, after voters have relied on the existing mail in system to cast their ballots. The observer issue has already been litigated in pennsylvania and the Trump Campaign lost. They said they did not have observers and then they admitted in court that they actually did have. The fraud and error allegations either are few and scattered or have already been debunked in those states. All that said, i expect we will see more litigation filed as we stateoward the final of electionn totals, which will be by the end of this month alex thank you, trevor. We will see you back on the program a little later in the hour. Before we get to our big discussion, lets first get to our initial polling question, one of several throughout this event. A box is going to come up on your screen. Please respond to the question. It will give everybody a second to check it out and log in their responses. Ok. Answeredeverybody has the poll question, lets get to our panelists. It is my great pleasure to introduce Maggie Haberman, rick davis and David Plouffe. A reporterrman is for the New York Times and we have news this morning that maggie will be writing a book about President Trump to be released in the next year or so, i believe. Im sure we will be preordering on amazon. Rick davis served in multiple capacities in the reagan and George H W Bush administrations as well as multiple president ial campaigns, including the first president bush, bob dole, john now, ain 2000, 2008, and successful career in the private sector. Longtimeuffe is a political strategist, Campaign Manager for barack obama positivist successful 2008 president ial campaign, served as Senior Advisor to the president. Since then, david worked in senior positions at uber and the chainzuckerberg initiative. Welcome, folks. Im excited to have this conversation with all of you. There is a subset of the american electorate that has given up on the institutions and rule of law. He was talking about fox polls. He wasnt talking about jobs or covid. The decisionmaking at the top has always been donald trump. He is running the bus and the bus is very all over the road. And then with the coronavirus, if you talk to republican pollsters they saw the bottom dropping out if you talk to the republican pollsters, they will tell you that they saw the bottom dropping out. Alex thank you for bearing with our technical difficulties. Have we done the poll . The firstng to get to polling question. If you havent seen it, a box is going to come up on your screen, please respond to the question if you havent already. Pleasure toat maggiece our panelists, haberman, rick davis and David Plouffe. A reporterr said is for the New York Times who won a Pulitzer Prize for her investigation on donald trump and his associates in russia. She is writing a book on the Trump Administration. Rick davis served in multiple capacities in the reagan and george w. Bush administrations including from multiple president ial campaigns including the first president bush, and john mccain. He now has a successful career in the private sector. Notably thee was Campaign Manager for Barack Obamas successful 2008 residential campaign, then served as Senior Advisor to the president. Since, david worked at senior positions at uber in the chanzuckerberg initiative. Welcome, folks. I hope you can hear me. My zoom is malfunctioning. But the brilliant insight is going to make up for technical difficulties. Thank you. Maggie, i want to start with you, my friend. A lot of americans are not necessarily surprised President Trump has refused to concede the election. But i wonder if there is anything about the aftermath of eitherriod that has shocked or surprised you, given the fact you are a font of information and prognosis about the information about the administration. Maggie first of all, thank you for the kind introduction and thank you for having me on the panel. It is a pleasure to be here. I am not surprised by how he is conducting himself. I am surprised at how many republicans have gone along with it over the last couple of days. And i shouldnt be, given the tight hold he keeps over his party. And he has made clear he is not going to reseed from the spotlight when he leaves office. To be clear, i think he will leave office. I think it will just keep saying all the things he is saying about rigged elections, as he is walking out the door. Awarethink he is well that he has won the secondmost votes in an election in history. Jill biden won the first. He is going to use that to propel himself commercially and potentially politically in the future. That is making other republicans very nervous, particularly as they face runoffs in georgia in january. More republicans in the senate, in particular, were saying, if they were saying it was time to go, that might expedite it. Lindsey graham has been one of the most vocal defenders of the president s right to raise what have been specious questions about fraud in various states, even Lindsey Graham said today, joe ought to be getting intelligence briefing spirit so you are seeing some cracks. Intelligence briefings. So you are seeing some cracks. But what is interesting is what republicans are saying in public, versus private. That discrepancy tells you a lot about where we are. David, rick, i would love to get you to weigh in on the data we are processing in this election. David, this was a very close election. If you look at what was happening in some of these battleground states, these were hardwon electoral votes. Inould love for you to weigh on the efficacy of the Trump Campaign strategy and rick, i would love for you to talk about the biden Campaign Strategy on a statebystate level, if you could, not every state, but how you see the battle landscape in the aftermath. David . Thanks, alex. It will take months to analyze the data. This was not a close race. They are battleground states for a reason. Biden has a healthy number of electoral votes, the same number thep won by a 2016, but biden margins in michigan and pennsylvania are much wider. Not howlar vote, it is we elect our president , but the biden margins could be struck obamas in 2012, shy of what he had in 2008, so a big number. So i think the Trump Campaign did well. This is a race donald trump hadd clearly have won, he campaigned more effectively in the closing week, had he had a better first debate. The original sin is not taking the pandemic as seriously as the American People would have liked, but even when polls showed biden winning a lot, his people were coming up. And when his people come out, the watermark rises. Wisconsin is a great example. Waited 2016 was 1. 4 million votes. Iden was able to get over that trump had a great turnout. His urban margins held up. Turned up 2016 was not an anomaly. I think some of that is going to continue in terms of our parties. Suburbanorrhaged in areas and in urban areas that were near suburban areas. Erie county, pennsylvania. Northampton county, pennsylvania. Three key counties outside milwaukee he was able to gain back. So trump did a remarkable job of turnout. I think they knew that they were in Good Standing in ohio and iowa, they cut back resources there, they felt better about florida than most people thought. They thought flora florida would be a possible win for them. And like in 2016, they focused like a laser on pennsylvania. They probably wish they did better in georgia, and my guess is they wish they would have done more in arizona. Based on data i have seen around spending and resources, arizona was not important to them as it was to biden. They did a lot of things well. I am sure one of the reasons he is so outraged and refuses to cede to reality is that he probably does think it was a winnable race. One of the questions is, is this what republican is going to turn what republican turnout is going to be in 2022, 2026, or was it because of resident from or was it because of President Trump . Rick i think he is spot on with the differences. I would even drill down and say, from my biden perspective, he knew it was always going to be about donald trump. He didnt get in the way of the debate everybody was going to have anyway. So i lot of criticism early on about campaigning from his basement, reinforced the covid page and brought it home personally, that penetrated. But he didnt get in the way of people talking about trump or trump talking about trump erie at over 75 of people polled on election day said this was all about trump. That was number one. Dont get in the way when he is probably going to help you win. Number two, he knew where his votes were going to come from. A lot of his strategy was focused on suburbs and experts suburbs and exurbs. He knew he would run up numbers in philadelphia, but also needed suburbs as well. Bucks county, pennsylvania, he knew that better than trump. If trump looked at the results today and realized he could penetrate as he did in the hispanic vote, get double digits in the black vote, he could look at this and say we have to get into the suburbs more. He kind of waged a campaign against the suburbs and that was a mistake. He might have done better. And different from the Hillary Clinton campaign four years ago against trump, she was running all over the country trying to put states in play like arizona, and yet didnt Pay Attention to the base states. Biden did a very good job paying attention to the base states, spent a lot of time in michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania was like a second home or third home or fourth home only one home all in one. When you look at a week before the election how many visits he and his surrogates paid pennsylvania, that was the right strategy. David is right. If donald trump that these numbers in georgia and arizona and even wisconsin, he would have spent more time there. He spent a lot of time in wisconsin, but if he knew he was within 20,000 votes, he would have spent time there. In arizona,n speaking to a state of probably know better than the rest, he wouldnt go to maricopa county, the largest county in america. He traveled all over the rural parts of the state and wouldnt suburban card. And yet that is where he lost arizona, in errico county in maricopa county. Small stakes were made along the way both campaigns. The mistakes trump made cost him the election. It was an election he could have one. He could have won. It is a big question when you , paster 66 of the vote performance in an election since 1908. Is that a future wife . Wave . Is it geared toward trump, and if it is, what is the future of trump . Without saying what the future of voting is, someone is going to have to tell me what trump is going to do in the future, and good luck with that. Only knowsonly Maggie Haberman what trump is going to do in the future. I spent a lot of time before the election in bucks county, pennsylvania, and it was almost preordained pennsylvania would be a deciding factor in this election. But maggie, when we talk about this presidency, you have been in the whitehot center of the Trump Administration. You know what has gone on inside that white house in a way few other people do. And i think you understand the mind of trump. I wonder if you have a sense of what his legacy may be, and whether he has forever changed the american presidency. Im wondering about what is expected of leaders on top they approached not just the office, but the campaign. Trump made every part of the white house into a campaign plank, used the white house as the center of his campaign several times, how do you think things change or dont change in the wake of trump . Great question, alex. Rick and david did two things donald trump will point to as victories on his way out the door, thinks he did to transform the Republican Party. But it is not clear how permanent those will be. In terms of the durability of what he did for the office, when he was elected, i had a conversation with a democratic said ours isnd he a system of norms and laws. Bustedre some norms he that we repeatedly heard about from every democrat who ran this cycle saying that they would restore. Among the things we heard about was the White House Press briefings. Press briefings are an important tradition, but they, in this administration, had almost no utility whatsoever by the end. All there be things president elect biden and may be president after him decides not to continue with, readouts with foreign leader calls, specific sharing of schedules, things like that . I dont know. I have a hard time seeing a Lasting Imprint of a lot of what trump did. I dont think we are going to elect a wealthy reality tv Star Real Estate developer in the future. But it is an open question. I am flipping at a little bit. I think there are things that he did that he discovered he could get away with doing, not just not releasing his tax returns, but certainly up there. Will other elected officials find that it is appealing to not go with transparency . Completeard president s over years about the media, donald trump was not first. Aspects of his presidency that may have some appeal to future presidency to future president s, but it is too soon to say. What we discovered over the four were, sometimes what broken were norms and not laws and that think the general public care about it. So it is going to depend on what the public tolerate. To havebody is eager another convention, just from a media perspective. Sorry, convention lovers. I want to pause and give you ,esults from our first poll again, what do you view as a top priority for the new administration . If you saygly, 74 it is a covid19 response, 14 say economy, 3 foreign, 4 social and Racial Justice and 6 believe health care is the top priority for the incoming administration. Do you another poll, think the country is going in the right or wrong direction . Think about that and answer as we switch gears a little and talk about the elusive ideal of Common Ground in america. This is a question we ask ourselves generally speaking in american politics, but certainly in the wake of this election, there is a question about how we get back to the united part of the United States. David, what is your expectation of a bite in presidency and the degree to which he will pursue this lofty idea of unity . David lets start with optimism before we get to the reality, which is quite pessimistic or the American People, assault weapons, comprehensive immigration reform, education and health care questions, even climate change, you have north of 70 of 80 north of 70 80 agreement on these issues. Andissue is people right left to vote in primaries, contribute on social media, really make it hard and we need more john mccains, people who are willing to be courageous. I helped a lot of people get elected to office, governor, congress, senator, president. Some of them said, the reason i am running is so i never lose. They are running to do something. And then they get there and think they fear most of all is losing. I dont understand it. Is a lot of travel and a lot of heartache. There are three parts to the presidency, Foreign Policy where an american president has great the way and can execute lots of decisions per biden will take full advantage. There are executive actions and regulatory decisions. Biden will be aggressive there. Then, there is legislation. I worked in the white house when we had a Republican Senate with Mitch Mcconnell as leader, so the only things i think could get done is maybe an maybe aucture package, slimmed down immigration package, maybe something around covid relief. Notion we are going to get tax reform, the Biden Health Care plan, it is not going to happen. We have the highest deficits since world war ii. Fiscal situation that happened with a Republican Senate, but mcconnell is going to say, joe biden is not getting one sent from me. He is going to go back to denying any fiscal stimulus and mcconnell is a savvy player, that is why democrats fear him and hate him and he will make decisions based on one thing, what maximizes his ability to have its to maximize his majority in 2022. He has incumbents running in tough states and one question would become a do they have a better chance if the economy is stronger must of that might lead him to cooperate on economic issues. Think, theu might more unpopular biden and democrats are, the more opportunity my incumbents can win in places like georgia and florida. On legislative matters, biden will try, talk to mcconnell every day, but at the end of the day, and this is where over half of truck voters viewing biden as an illegitimate president hurts. So anybody thinking of running josh hawley, nikki haley, the trump kids, all of them have to say it was stolen from truck. So it makes it harder for members to cooperate. So it will take courage. I will say, we criticize the media, social but citizens have a role here. I am a democrat. Lets say you give money to someone who just one a house race and they sponsor legislation with a republican takeisagree with, dont out your phone and fire up a tweet that says that person should get a primary. If we want people to reach across the aisle, we have to celebrate, even when we disagree, and citizens are alex g on that front area that on that front. Ed alex alex that would be a different tack. If biden comes in to office as someone known for brokering relationships, does that matter on capitol hill . Do you see the Republican Party united in the wake of trumpism. Even if trump is no longer in office, he will still be animating the grand old party. How complicating does that make efforts to work across the aisle by the president . Rick there is a weird anomaly. Republicans are going to see this as a referendum that supports donald trump, turning out more republicans than ontory, the way he focuses the dark end of politics, but in all the surveys, these guys would tell you everybody wants you to work together. Even though you hate each other, you are tired of congress not getting stuff done. That was the gamble biden took in the election, he talked about that. Not a popular thing to do. It doesnt rev up your base. Bipartisanship is not a hot issue, it is not a wage issue, it is kind of, since donald trump takes the opposite approach. Normally, everyone would say we want unity. What if he makes good on that end brings in republicans to his the pot,that stirs confuses the issue, and even though we are waiting to see what happens in georgia, and that is going to determine control of the senate, the reality is, even if republicans win both those seats, it is a twovote margin and you have , mitts, murkowski, sasse romney, you have a lot of votes you can shop for at cocktail parties. Biden is the kind of guy who is going to go to those folks and say, ive got a stimulus, pelosi wants to . 5 trillion, mcconnell wants 500 million dollars, lets take one point 5 trillion and call it a day. Those are the kinds of deals that get all the time. Looks likes it infrastructure, to republicans it looks like a jobs bill. It would be hard to vote against that if you are susan collins, who is liberated. This is her last term. She has six years of looking across the aisle and trying to get your out what mark she wants to make. And there are other republican senators like that. So there is a crack in the armor. Whether mcconnell likes it or not, he cant stop things from happening, but he doesnt have control of his caucus in the future, because the president isnt going to discipline him, and he has that benefit. He can quietly make his moves and know that anytime he wants, one call to the white house and donald trump would blow these guys up, call them this loyal, go at them. There is nobody that is going to do that anymore. And mcconnell has never done that. He disciplines his caucus in private, not public, because he gets heardat politically, he doesnt get to be majority leader anymore. I think we are going to enter a different environment. The dark outcome david guy, ied, being a mccain have to be optimistic all the time. Live in the light. Endif biden doesnt fall and tobiden doesnt fall prey the left and tried to do too much with policies that are going to have a majority, he could read the needle for a couple of years because this all heats up again and turns into another president ial campaign. He does have the benefit that no one is going to be afraid of running against him, because it is highly likely he wont be on the ballot for years from now, so we want to be a threat personally. Maggie, we have reports President Trump is talking about running again in 2024, he may start a media company, there is optimistic thinking he will go back to the sidelines, but data suggests he might very much try to hold onto the mic. And there is a complicated love triangle emerging between joe biden, nancy pelosi, and Mitch Mcconnell. Where does donald trump fit in to all of this . You know this man, does he try Republican Party out of office, and one of the implication . Maggie trumpism is not defined by a core ideology. It is very much about the president personally and it has been this catchall basket of issues that he has cared about, immigration to some extent, trade to some extent, and a bunch of other things people throw into the basket. Toont expect he is going become some strong voice on legislation from the sidelines. , heink he will hold rallies will campaign for people iffy if he thinks it looks like they are waiting and he will be able to claim he is the victor, everything is about seeing what he can get away with. I think he likes the idea making things very difficult for joe approving oft this, im just saying this is how he views it, he believes bad things were done to him during his transition and that his presidency was never able to get leverage because of the various investigations, even though he fired the fbi director, fired his National Security advisor, and so forth. In his mind, damage was done to him and he wants to be some form of the face of the opposition to joe biden that is what i imagine. Gettingwe will start staying 2022 of the power of Donald Trumps political legacy, but i dont expect him to do more than onthefly things. He is talking about running for president again. Whether he runs or not, or just says he is, and forming a media company, those are in conflict, not things you do at the same time. He is leaving himself a menu of options and will take whichever path is more can get when he gets there. And i think there i dont think there is some well laid out strategy about how he wants to impact the future. President that follows his instinct and i dont think that will change post residency. Maggie one other thing that is very important, the number of votes he turned out, we will find out if it was just about him or not, but there is every reason to believe it was about him, based on previous votes to republicans. So that is something of a command presence he knows he has. Aboutdavid, as we talk the future of the parties, there is already a battle brewing among democrats in the aftermath that there were you think the, Democratic Party moves forward . ,he caucus itself is very big what does that imply legislatively . Becauset is less big conventional wisdom was that democrats would win three to 10 and ended up losing a significant amount of house seats. Georgias are both still possible. The left and the centerleft are sniping at each other, but first numbers, this was a tough congressional map that was put in at the beginning of the last decade. Most observers thought there was no way the democrats could win back the house, but in 2018, they did. That was a high watermark on that map, particularly because trump was able to turn out very strong numbers in some trump districts that went democrats in 2018. It turns out that we were at our ceiling. Now,enate races right the natural state in america just because of where, the dakotas, the plains states, the south, democrats can be competitive in those. There are places like the pacific northwest, california, new england, where it is harder for republicans, but right now, the natural state of things is that republicans should have 5456 senators, and democrats are not want to lose the popular vote anytime soon unless you get a reagan part of the wing. But we are going to struggle to win the Electoral College. That is where we are. People always make the mistake exitirst of all, polls were completely screwy. We see that on the border. Trump made huge gains. In miamidade, trump made huge pains. Biden one 260,000 votes around philadelphia. I never thought i would see it. It is an important trend. But we always just look at the votes. Remember, to gain votes, you need activists, money, you need volunteers, so you have to look at it in a 360 view. You get to say candidates have to appeal to the center. If you dont add fuel to the fire, it wont work. To win wisconsin in a president ial rate, president ial race, or maintain the house majority, we have to win in really tough areas. I always tell people president ial races, the popular vote doesnt matter, trust me. Football, iaying in gained more yards but didnt have as many points. Who cares . In every battleground states, there are more conservatives than liberals. Every single one. And republicans get more reliable turnup. So they start closer to the 50 yard line the democrats do. Why did biden win . He got enough turnup and dominated on selfdescribed moderates. Our party has to understand you need the activism and passion that comes from the left and younger voters, but to win in pennsylvania, northern minnesota, wisconsin, to gain in places like maricopa county, those are center, centerright voters. And to me it is crazy, because it is an all of the above strategy. You need activism, strong turnout, you need to win moderates, and it is simple math that sometimes after elections we forget, and at the end of the day, we have a lot of work to do, and it has to be yearround work, because if republicans can build on what trump did and cut down our margins with hispanic and the africanamerican vote in the carolinas, if you look at rural carolina counties, it was frightening to me. We have got to get on it. Do yousame time, how maximize gains in suburban areas and hold onto bluecollar gains and keep urban margins up . Youy election reveals where are stronger than you thought you were and where you are weaker than you thought you were. Out how wefigure organize in the Rio Grande Valley yearround. Unique tof it was trump, but you see a trend now that is concerning. And so much of what is going to drive our politics in the next couple decades is that ruralurban divide, and education. Divide is as stark as we have seen it in american political history. Call that aoing to mixed prognosis for the Democratic Party. [laughter] sounds pretty negative to me. Alex i was trying to be optimistic. [laughter] we are going to have some questions but first, i want welcome back trevor and continue the conversation with questions from folks who have been avidly watching and submitted questions. I want to kick it off with results from our second poll about the right direction or wrong direction of the country. 41 if you believe we are going in the right direction and 59 of you believe we are going in the wrong direction. Pessimism continues. Me start with you about legal challenges. Viewers are wondering how we take the information we are processing now and make sure this doesnt happen before the next election. What needs to happen before the midterm elections, practically speaking, to make sure there is not this chaos after an election . Are we as thely, United States more or less of a democracy after this year . Trevor one thing we have to recognize is that it is unique that a candidate that is so far behind in the states is challenging the fundamentals of the elections process. Normally, we see a dispute over contested ballots, and a claim that ballots were counted that shouldnt have been, maybe there were voters who shouldnt have voted and did, and those are detailed discussions. That is the sort of thing that will happen in georgia in the recount. But when you are looking at a 145,000 vote margin in michigan, or 50,000 plus in pennsylvania, you are not talking about specifics of a couple of voters. The charges they are, the claim is that somehow the whole system was invalid, that we shouldnt have had absentee votes in those state, where 40 of pennsylvanians voted absentee. That is a fundamental matter to be raising as a legal matter. I dont think it goes anywhere, because if it was ever raised, it should have been raised before the election, and i dont think it would have gone anywhere. There are Supreme Court cases allowing different rules for absentee votes than for votes cast on election day. It at this stage is more a political point then a legal point. It goes to the conversation about whether trump will say he actually lost, and whether his voters will believe he lost. Thisn order to maintain concept, i think soon to be shoton, that there was a at him winning and something was done wrong that can be corrected. In order to do that, he is going to end up with an awful lot of people who rely on him for information believing that the result of the election was somehow illegitimate, that if the system had been run frontally and correctly, that somehow trump would therefore have won. And i think that willingness to ignore vote totals and what people have actually done in the state is a problem for us as a democracy, and it will present a problem for President Biden once he is inaugurated. Because you will see pressure from the grassroots and pressure from the blogosphere and various silos on the internet on republican officeholders not to cooperate, or not to recognize this victory. We are seeing it in some states already, where there is a push by some black officials even to say pennsylvania and michigan publicignore some officials even to say pennsylvania and michigan should ignore the votes and ask their legislatures send trump electors , even though biden won the state based on overall vote totals. So that is new, and i think disturbing. I want to get one more question to you. And put this in the global context. One week after the election, President Trump fired the secretary of defense. Shortly after he started disputing it, the u. S. Withdrew formally from the Paris Climate Accord and we know the u. S. Is set to pull out of the world health organization. What messages being sent to American Allies around the world, especially right now is the president refuses to concede . Beid donald trump may not moving on, but the rest of the world is moving on. Other than putin, every world leader reached out biden with a note to congratulate him. There government are preparing for what i Biden Administration means on the change in american policy. So the look for america could not the worst. We could not be worse. We have spent decades going around the world, cajoling, partnering with, sometimes lecturing people on how to build elections, how to form a democracy, how to respect democratic norms and traditions. And they are all being violated. I know that sounds like a partisan, but that is through republican administrations, democratic administrations, conservatives and liberals. So even though we look like a joke, the fact an american president decisively lost an election is saying he doesnt care about the will of the voters. He wants to stay and is going to test everything and for the most part, one of our Political Parties is saying essentially, every senate race that gets called for a republican is legitimate, every house race that gets called for a republican is legitimate, every state donald trump wins is legitimate, but every state donald trump does not win is illegitimate. And that is going to last for years. First questionr to maggie, that is an open question. 2024, future, whether it is biden or harris or weever emerges and trump, know it will continue. But will there be trashing of elections and Elections Officials and norms and Election Results . Think, and rick knows more about this, i am an amateur here, but the most important people in the Republican Party today, about the future, are not Mitch Mcconnell or Kevin Mccarthy or anybody thinking of running for president. It is rupert and Lachlan Murdoch , it is the people run breitbart runople who smacked who newsmax. If they say the election isnt legitimate, that is where the energy is. What we need to be watching is all those entities over the next 75 days. Where did they land . Because where they land is where think most republicans feel they have to follow that. , let me allow you to wax philosophical. Given what david highlighted about the media and polarization at this emergency of a reality where facts are not agreed upon, how do we find Common Ground . Is it possible . Theomebody who works at failing New York Times where do we find Common Ground . Maggie its a great question and one that i have been asked a lot and one i wish i had a better answer for. Im not sure. The nature of partisan news david was describing is one of the biggest impediments to moving forward. The 2016 election was the first time it wasnt just a difference of opinions, but a difference of describing which reality people wanted to see. I dont know how that genie gets put back in the bottle. Process. E a very slow what will is better News Literacy young people who want to be active in the process. David mentioned the roles citizens need to plan there are things the media could and should have done differently in the candidates could and should have done differently, but citizens have various roles to play in terms of participation in the process. One is voting. That is the main way where if you dont like your representation, you can change it. But being aware of what is real and what is not is something news users need to become more savvy about. Boring lengthn to about the destructive nature of twitter. It is very dangerous, how many people in newsrooms get their main news from twitter today. That scares me, because it does shape the news a lot. This was an emerging thing in and and now it has changed, it is a fullblown virus. I dont have a great dancer, what i think that is one part of it. As we think of ourselves as part of a global what in terms of Foreign Policy and restoring alliances should be at the top of the incoming president s agenda . In terms of what his administration can do to reopen american channels to the rest of the world . President elect biden is going to have to address how he is going to followup on the middle east Peace Initiative trump initiated. In the middle east, they are pretty happy with the Trump Initiative and wouldnt want backtracking on that. Everything we have heard publicly is that he is for it, so he will need to articulate that as a policy. And it is complicated for him since relations with saudi arabia are going to be refocused on humanitarian and human rights rather than Just Economics and the military. Back on our competitors, china and russia, resetting relationships there as competitors, not pals. And there is a host of issues, north korea, iran, a lot focused around the Nuclear Ambitions around these countries. And for that, biden comes from a bad place, the Obama Administration who did those problems and kicked them into the next century, and they got worse, not better, and nothing has changed. None of the trump magic worked in either one of those regards, so does he pick up and try to iran toew accord in stop Nuclear Development there . And what kind of sanctions or pressure can they put on china . And to discipline the north korean machine, these are big, moving pieces that are going to be immediate for him on his desk. And the bilateral relationship with china is pretty much in disrepair. And i am sure that if it were better, i think widens ambitions would be human rights on climate, the toptwo but trade with china, and economics and covid are going to step on those things. So there is going to be in a normas amount of questions of ort the new u. S. I lateral relate the u. S. Bilateral relationship with china is going to look like. It is one of the questions that is pressing now, with all the ,iscussion about the transition what access to information is biden going to get to put ideas together related to those things . Because unlike most issues, it is what you dont know in those areas that are material, not what is in the public domain. So i think that is going to be some of the challenges he has literally in the first 100 days of his term. What is your expectation for the way in which the biden presidency will be efferent then the trump presidency, not just in terms of style, but execution . Both are tenacious and the pursuit of their ideas, and biden seems very intent on repairing the broken fabric of the country. As a political animal, how do you see him accomplishing those goals . I was having a conversation with someone about this the other day, trump and obama have neverye, but it is not the same thing. Joe biden loves washington. So how he navigates his way is an open question. General, his approach to politics has been a do no harm approach. He has tried to be inoffensive to people but clearly knows what he wants to say and is thinking about, and knows what he wants to do. He has been thinking about running for president for many decades. Unlike trump, joe biden is going to come in with a number of things he wants to do and is going to be less captive to various people ideas than donald various peoples ideas than donald trump was. I dont think you are going to see joe biden demonizing groups of people. Donald trump spent years in office demographic spent years in office, gawking race demagoguingoffice emigrants, saying things that are racist. I dont know what the half of the country that didnt vote for him is going to look like that is an open question. You are going to see a more traditionally unction all white house than the last four years. It has become something of a punchline, but just the carousel of revolving staff in and out of the president s service, and in and out of his head, one person in one here, another person in the other ear, whips the awning the other ear, whipsaw ing him on what to do. Hear a note of optimism about functionality. Maggie haberman on a simplest asked level, on a simplistic the Communications Director at the white house was room would yesterday to be looking for asther job, alyssa farah, you put out a tweet of moments she remembered the past couple years in this administration. In a typical administration, this would be mundane, but in this one, it is dont look for a job while the president is fighting the results, it is seen as strange. The degree to how abnormal this white house has been has filtered down to the granular level. It will have an impact when it is not like that anymore. Alex as the door closes, the window opens, an important take away. I want to take all of you talented, brilliant people. We have another poll that is going to pop up on everyones screen, what has the potential to bring the country together . , want to thank Maggie Haberman , anddavis, David Plouffe trevor, thank you for your time as well. We are so happy to have this admittedly sometimes dark assessment, but there is optimism about basic competence and may be achieving the goal of Common Ground. Thank you all, for your insights on the topic. I want now to introduce mark green. Mark had an extraordinary career in Public Service as ambassador to benson ef, president of the International Republican institute, administrator for usaid before becoming executive director of the Mccain Institute. Welcome, mark. The question burning in our heads, do we have hope of finding Common Ground . Mark i will be the optimistic note. As i was listening to our great guests, i was reminded of an experience i had with john mccain if years ago. It was right after the 2016 election. I was president of the International Republican institute and mccain was chairman of the board. Along withaded friends at the National Democratic institute, our sister organization, to sponsor an event in which we had Madeleine Albright and john mccain talking about Foreign Policy. They disagreed just about every issue you can think of. And when i got back to my office i thought, that was a bust, you just wasted all of our time. I could not believe how positive the response was, over and over again. They disagreed. And i kept hearing over and over again, but it is how they disagreed. Civilly, they treated each other with respect and they listen to each other. Ed the Mccain Institute is an institute bearing john mccains name. Definitely have a point of view on a range of topics. Liberty, wen human are internationalist in our outlook, we believe in the importance of american lives. We also believe in the marketplace of ideas and we believe that needs to be civil, to listen to each other and make common cause when we can, because we are stronger that way and we know that is what our opponents, the authoritarians, fear the most. Institute, we have a number of bipartisan International Working groups, groups on russia, human rights and democracy, great power competition, strengthening american alliance, topics so near and dear to mccains heart. Not every one of these groups agrees. They have strong points of view and sometimes disagree sharply, but we do listen to each other and we do try to capture that sense of constructive disagreement, and look for ways to turn that disagreement into consensus worry can, to make common cause and to try to create actionable items. There are going to be plenty of opportunities in the coming months and years to use that model. Yes, there is going to be disagreements between the parties, disagreements between mcconnell, but if they disagreed constructively and try to turn that into action items, there is an awful lot that can at done. , we got into a bruising time, absolutely. We have seen information weaponized. We have seen social media abused. We have seen too much of an echo chamber in the media. Basic the other hand, the fundamentals of our institutions are still there, and we have a great opportunity, all of us who care about these causes and about democracy, to really listen to each other and move forward. So i am a note of optimism tonight. Alex [laughter] it is much appreciated, mark. I want to go over results of our latest poll. The question, what has the most potential to bring the country together . Biden reachingoe across the aisle. 18 of you believe it is a plan to address covid and our shared humanity in the face of a global pandemic. 13 of you believe it is trump changing his tone. Good luck to us all on that. 12 if you agree it is agreement on an economic stimulus package, perhaps likely in coming months. 3 of you believe it is alignment on Foreign Policy. So interesting feedback on what you think might get us to Common Ground. I want to thank everybody who spoke tonight. Trevor potter, Maggie Haberman, plouffe, andavid our wonderful hosts cindy mccain and mark green. Thank you to our audience. We hope you enjoyed the conversation. We hope you feel a little more optimistic about the future ahead. Thank you to the mc use your mobile devices let, top or phone and go to cspan. Org for easy access for election 22 the results, lebanons of power in congress for easy access to election 2020 results. Coming up live on friday, and nasa administrator Jim Bridenstine holds a new News Conference ahead launch. Pacex resilience at 10 45, House Speaker nancy pelosi at her Weekly Briefing with reporters. At noon come former Homeland Security secretaries talk about president ial transitions and the importance of the peaceful transfer of power for National Security. And on cspan2 at noon, if senator leads a discussion on the will of telehealth during the pandemic. Coming up in one hour, todd harrison, defense policy analyst with the center for strategic and international studies
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