With states like texas and hawaii already surpassing their total of 2016. What you think that massive number of votes means . 2006, it maybe was not as interesting but we are talking a lot about it today. We are seeing a huge increase in voting by mail and early voting in person. 2016 we saw 41 of the population voting for election day. 17 by early in person voting. We are seeing another explosion beyond that in this election. We have already seen 92 Million People vote early this as of last night. We are going to see more before election day. Deservescdonald really credit for keeping these numbers which keep expanding. We will see on most 50 of americans voting by mail. The average for the 4 voting early. Just a little bit voting on election day. 23 or 25 . It means changes in states doing very different things. Some of them casting ballots in a new way. One of the thing to note is in the past a lot of votes and in person votes were very close to election day. This started early. As early as the method opened up, we saw lots of ballots coming in early, several weeks before. There are going to be problems with counting. Perhaps some issues and delays. But i do think we are going to run this election, we will see record turnout and we have seen lots of voting by mail and early in person voting. Host what are the driving forces behind the mailin voting, the early voting . Is it the coronavirus, a pushback to some of the critics of mailin voting . Guest i think it is the coronavirus. We have seen this trend so we would have expected some increase anyway. There is a substantial fraction of the populations of vote by mail. Western states have been voting by mail for a while. The coronavirus did really push some people to want to vote by mail. One thing we have seen is a partisan divide over voting by mail which we have not seen in the past. We have not seen voters saying they were going to vote differently by party. Republicans and democrats used to take advantage of weather system whatever system of your we are seeing more democrats saying they are going to vote early by vote by mail. The numbers of people in the states that have those registration numbers bear that out. Democrats are voting earlier that way. We are seeing republicans voting more in person and no wings knowing what is calm what is to come is hard to tell. Have did most states that mailin or early voting, did they start counting ahead of time . Guest no one officially starts counting but many states do some preparation and even putting ballots into a machine and toulating an almost ready press the button to get a final number. That is an issue in this election we have not talked much about before. Some states with the volume of absentee ballots we are seeing this time will benefit from being able to start the process earlier. Some of the states we are looking at on Election Night that we might worry about getting a result are states that dont have very much time. There are other factors, whether they count locally or centrally, but again, states that have an earlier time to begin the processing and almost the counting of those ballots are going to be in a better position than states that dont. Host we would love to hear your experiences. We are talking with john fortier with the Bipartisan Policy Center about election day, really voting as well. If you voted early in person, here is the line to use. 202 7488000. If you are voting on election day, 202 7488001. If you have already sent in your ballot, a mailin ballots or absentee, 202 7488002. If you dont plan to vote, 202 7488003. We will get to your calls momentarily. We have not talked about polling places but i want to read you a piece from the wall street journal. Way,ng sites brace for a they say that counties have been grappling with in person voting during the pandemic. Many encourage early balloting on election day but some are adding early voting days and locations. Some counties have turned to unconventional locations like sport stadiums that can maintain social distancing even with big groups. They write that changes have resulted in the changes from 2016 and the total number of polling like pieces election day polling locations on election day wisconsin and michigan, analysis from data of secretaries of state and county officials. The journal also obtained data from counties in florida and georgia. What are you anticipating in terms of, you said you. 25 of the vote you said you thought 25 of the boat would happen that day. Will we see long lines that day . Think the message for people this election to try to cast their vote in an earlier way is a good one. We are probably not going to see the volume of people voting on election day that we have in the past. We dont have the final turnout. We expect it will be high than we have seen in history. Again, so many people have voted by mail or early in person that the numbers may be down. It is still worth your while to make a plan to vote. At this point you are probably either going to hand in your ballot if you have a mail ballot. Hopefully it will be to a dropbox or some location. There are a few places that still allow sunday or even monday early voting. Are going to go on election day. I do think we are going to see less volume on election day. Again there are some factors that the states are facing. Sometimes a polling site might not be able to accommodate as many people with coronavirus restrictions. Between how balance much volume we see coming in on election day versus the issues that the states are having trying to process voters given our coronavirus situation. Host calls next for john fortier. Sophia is first in the bronx and voted early in person. Welcome. Caller yes, good morning. I have a question for you. I will try to be faster. I have a comment for mr. Fortier. I will put forth my question to you. What happened to Steve Scalise . Two weeks ago on friday which i missed it, if you can before the end of the program, if you could let me know what happened, why i do not see him. That was the question for you. Host the address that briefly and go on with your comment. Our colleague Steve Scalise is currently on administrative is on steve scully administrative leave. Caller thank you. That means he will come back. Host it is possible. I dont have all the answers, but yes. Caller thank you. Because i love him so much. For mr. Fortier, i wanted to say this. 50 years ago, i used the same word. The first word i have is americans are stupid. I am a conservative republican. More thanen does win 150 million votes, im going to believe what they say the , they say0 years ago we are stupid for this because it is too much. Thank you, thank you. Host any response . Know obviously, we dont the Election Results and the early voting is suggestive that democrats have gotten not there in the early period. But we do not know what is left. We know republicans are voting more in person. Im not going to say anything about the final results other than i think we will have record high turnout and it will look different because many more people will have voted before election day than on election day. Host you point out that donald trump, one of five president s to win the presidency without winning the popular vote. Those president s, John Quincy Adams in 1824, 1876 rutherford b. Hayes, benjamin harrison, 1888, george w. Bush in 2000 and donald trump had 2. 8 million votes more than Hillary Clinton in 2016. From philadelphia she is going to vote on election day. Sectionit was the only in 2016 that voted for trump. I voted in person. I was born in 1932. I will be 88 years old at the end of the month, the 28th of november. Mail and iust the want to vote in person. Trust i live in a democratic city and state. Trusteve you, i dont anyone so that is why i am voting in person. Thank you very much. Host clearly a lot of people are trusting mailin, absentee and early voting. Guest yeah. A trend. Obviously our country has different states in different places. In recent years we have United States out west almost 100 voting by mail. Other parts of the country are looking more traditional with most voting on election day. I see the trains that many people are voting very early this time. The trends. Some have decided they want to vote either early in person or on election day. You are very likely to have the same polling site as you usually do although you might want to check that with your registrar of voters. There will be plenty of options to vote on election day even at this late time. Those are options many people are going to take advantage of all three of those options. Host one of several articles you were quoted in, this is a good news story. Voters turn out early in historic numbers. With us this morning, you are cautionary with your not to read too much into what those numbers possibly could mean. How early on Election Night do you think we could begin to see a sign of what the early votes of this massive amount of early voting is meaning . Guest i do think because of the large number of people voting early, also all the changes that we have made in states to the elect tour system and covid, electoral system, we will have more issues. That is not maybe will not have an accurate count, and i believe we will, but there are some states that are going to have a hard time putting out provisional results on Election Night or the day after. Resultss else final never come out until at least a week or sometimes 30 days after the election. The question is what is the margin of victory on Election Night. If we see a big margin for one of the candidates over the other, we could easily have enough states called by the networks and we know the winner on Election Night as we usually do. But if it is closer, we can see because of certain states waiting, and i do think pennsylvania may be one of those. Michigan is another that might take longer. We may wait a few days. If it is close like it was in aorida where there is recount, we could wait a long time. I think we could know at any time but there is more pressure on the system this time to be able to process those ballots in a way that gets us closer to being able to call results on Election Night so we will just see whether we are able to call it on Election Night or whether we will have to wait a few days. Either way voters should know what the process is going to go forward either way. Host do you think that this massive amount of early and mailin voting is a change for good, not just a covid effect . That from here on out most americans will vote early or vote by mail . Guest we have seen the numbers go up a selection. More modest increases each election. Voters tend to like the change. I think you will see whether voters like their experience. Levels i do expect a high of vote by mail and early in person voting after this election, much higher than 2016 going forward. We might see a drawback in 2024 under nonemergency situations. I think we will set a higher baseline where many more people are voting before election day in the future. Host lets hear from stephen in lexington, kentucky who voted early. Caller thank you for taking my call. I voted in person and early. I was surprised at how quick and efficient it was. I was worried that there would be large crowds and i would be waiting a while. My area got it cleared out and very proficient and quick so i was very impressed. If i was going to vote by mail, since the post office has been having problems that my ballot was not going to be in person so that is why i decided to vote in person. Map a question . May i ask a question . Host yes. Caller so, hypothetically we do not figure out who wins on Election Night, can one candidate say im just going to take this victory and go with it, can they do that . Can they announce themselves the winner themselves and just continue on . Host john fortier . Guest there are several things to consider. First of all in terms of when the election is resolved, there are different ways of thinking about it. We often have, calls made by the networks or other press organizations based on very serious information, not just exit polls but primarily on results and what the margin is. Those are not official results. The numbers you see on Election Night or a few days after our writing counts are running counts. Other states may be taking longer for those things to come in. Some days after in some states, a little bit longer. In other states, there is an official certified account. There could even be recount that extend those counts longer. We are not getting the final results absolutely counted down to the last vote for quite a while. That does not mean we will not know who the winner is. As we are question of could somebody say they are the winner, there is a process and we are going to resolve the election. There is an Electoral College process where you will have the electors casting their ballots this year. Congress counting in january. And then a new president at the beginning of the second term beginning in january. Just because the candidate thinks they are ahead, does not mean the process will certify them. I expect we will have a clear winner that everyone can see at some point. How quick that is depends on how big margin is and how quickly the votes are counted. The official results of the states are not going to be known for a while. The official Electoral College process takes longer as well to really make a president later in january. Host you will talk about the Electoral College in our next segment. We are here with dominic. For those who are not planned to vote this year, 202 7488003. Good morning, dominic. Tell us why you not voting this year. Caller the reason im not voting can you hear me . Host yes. Caller the reason im not voting is because my vote is wasted. I live in new york and i vote for a republican president this year. No republican president has won new york since reagans landslide. Senator Chuck Schumer wins every year. I think it is a joke when i hear biden talk, 47 years in politics. What has he ever done . All he does is make promises. My vote is wasted. Going to go for a republican president , new york will never elect a republican president. They have done it once only. Host john, do you think that dominics vote is wasted . Guest i dont think so. It is probably a rare experience for republicans to win in new york at the president ial level. There are other races on the ballot and the ballot could also go a federal state and down to the local level. There are other races that might be more competitive. I also think even if we had a system of the National Popular vote, if you are on the losing side, some people would say your vote is wasted because the president is in one party and you did not get any share of that. It is still important to put your ideas into the political process. Make your voice heard. It may not always make a difference in the particular state youre in. But it is you being part of the process. Again, there are many races that you may affect with your vote, not just the president ial. Host in arizona, cheryl, good morning. Cheryl is voting by mail. Caller hi. I am voting by mail because it is convenient and easier. When i lived in california, i helped with the election but i am older now and im not helping. Economynted to say our has the fastest growth in u. S. History. Growth. In the last five months, we have jobs. 4 million jobs, new so vote trump. Host cheryl in arizona. Votes, york times tracks they had 92 million so far in person. 33 million so far. Really 58 million voted so far by mailin ballots. That is 65 of the total of 2016. Some of the robots encountered along the way. We have heard from some states requiring notaries in some states. What other states are having some issue with early in person or early mailin voting . Guest we see some states making some dramatic changes. I am not sure we are going to know how it all went until we look a few months later i got the process back at the process. It is true that voters may like these two options voters that are new to voting by mail like these new options, voters may not know where to go so those are some issues out there. There are disputes between the parties as to what changes we should make for the coronavirus. There have been a number of lawsuits asking for longer deadlines for ballots to be allowed instead of them being allowed on election day or wired on election day required on election day. A number of those were struck down by the supreme court. We have seen dramatic change and some of that is differences thaten Political Parties set what they think the best mode of voting is for this election. Wherever you are there are a lot of options and there are still options for you if you have not voted. Even under these circumstances, it is being administered very well as far as we can tell. I encourage you to take advantage of those options, whatever they may be. Host thats go to hamburg, pennsylvania to lori voted early in person. Caller i have not voted yet. Im sitting here, i have my mailin ballot. Meas going to take it with and vote in person. My plan was to mail it. Our boxes are open until 8 00 on Election Night. Im going to fill it out. Im not going to mail it anymore. I am afraid something will go wrong if i handed in hand it in. I will say it is important for everybody to go out and vote. No matter how they are going to vote. We have seen historical turnout. This is good. It is good for our democracy. Constantly he casts doubts on anything that he can to the american people. He doubts our country and that is what is happening today. Where divided to a point there may not be a way back, but we have to find that because it is up to us. Things,ate, we build and then we pass it on. We take things seriously when we vote and you need to vote for the person who you think will check your rights and your childrens rights and who will lead us to a greater future. No matter what, after this pandemic there is going to be another pandemic. It is going to happen because pandemics have happened throughout history. It is how the people deal with it that makes a difference. Host lori in pennsylvania. John fortier . Guest on the point of voter turnout, i think there is enthusiasm and some of that is very strong feelings for and against donald trump. I think that is driving turnout. Her second point was that she was going to drop off her ballot. That was her plan. I do think that is something to stress. Things ballots different but they are made allowed to you. You can return them in person. At this late time, i think that is the way to go and your options can vary from state to state whether there is a dropbox near you or whether you can bring into the polling place or the election office, it is worthwhile figuring that out. As you are states allowing ballot to be postmarked before election day with a certain number of days after to arrive. But given the possible long times of delivery and depending on what your deadline is in your state, it is wise to drop that off if it is a possibility. That gives you more peace of mind that your vote will be in by the deadline. Host what methods have states and using to verify it is you that is voting, to verify your identity attached to that ballot . Guest the typical way is related to your signature. You sign the envelope on the outside of a ballot that the ballot is included in. In some states there is a more rigorous process for comparing that signature to an earlier signature. There also states that have requirements such as a witness requirement or a notary public requirement. Those were more common in the past and really too concerned about keeping the privacy of the ballot. That may be something in your state to follow the directions and do what you need to do. Sometimes address information as well. There are some things you will need to provide when you cast your ballot. Notit is possible if you do feel the information out directly that your ballot might not be counted. Your information correctly. States have a crisis have a process. You need to check with that state with how long you have to fix that mistake. Again, ballots are identified by the information you put on them. Most of them are counted without problem. But those that have some issues, you may have some chance to resolve those if you are able to find that there was a problem and meet the deadline to resolve that problem. Host lets hear from scott in kansas who will vote on election day. Caller hello. Host go ahead. Caller i have two issues so please do not hang up before i am done. One is for the guest. 2016, news articles brought out problems about people being caught voting more than once. Now with all of this mailin knowg going on, how do we that folks are going to mail in a ballot and who is to say that on election day or whenever that they are not going to vote again . With so many mailin ballots, how do we know that the people that are nailing in these people that are allowed to vote, that have a right to vote with so many illegals being in the country . Now that i am against people coming in illegally, coming illegally, that is a problem. Insecond issue is the guy new york who thinks his vote does not count. Ast imagine maybe there is million republicans over there who feel the same way and none of them vote. Had they voted, may be vote would have made a difference maybe their vote would have made a difference. Thank you. Host john fortier . Issue of double voting is rare. There are cases that we do uncover each year, usually it is someone in one state folks and casts one state votes. States share information. It is not a perfect sharing. That is something we can improve in the future. If you are talking about the question of what about people who might cast a mail ballot and try to show up on election day, there are some strong procedures to avoid that someone could vote twice in that way. It varies from state to state. If you have an outstanding lot and you tried to go to a polling place, they are going to know that you have that talent. Ballot. States will either require you to bring a provisional ballot to the polling place and then see if there are two pallets out there and we count one or perhaps they have more of an Online System where they are able to check if you have already voted or not. I think it is very hard to imagine someone being able to an in person ballot and a male ballot given with the given the check in the state we see. That might lead to some longer there to cast ag if different kind of ballot. Host our guest is the director at the Bipartisan Policy Center. Separating the lines by those who vote early in person, 202 7488000. Those voting on election day, 202 7488001. And if you voted by mail, 202 7488002. The fortier, you head up government policy center what do you hope to happen with the studies and the results that you find out not just over election day but the president ial campaigns and otherwise . What is your group work towards . Generally as a whole, we work for some bipartisan agreement on solutions and sometimes that is hard. The parties do not always have the same positions on what to do about governmental reform, about voting. But we try to reach some consensus. I do think this election there was going to be a lot to chew on as we go forward and look back at what happened in this election. The changes are dramatic. Voting very different systems in our 50 states and i expect we will have great differences. There has been so much upheaval they going back and looking at how it went, which i do think it will go well overall. I think we will get a clear result. Perhaps it will take longer and we will learn something about some of the glitches that go on with those after election studies. Host a question for you on twitter. Jose asked on ranked Choice Voting, maybe you can give us a quick background or explain what is ranked Choice Voting. Guest ranked Choice Voting is used in the state of maine and local areas. If you think of some elections that have a runoff, two candidates, we see this in georgia, if two candidates run and nobody gets 50 , then it gets narrowed down to the last two candidates to have another election. Somebody will get over the majority. Ranked Choice Voting is a way for having those runoffs all at once. When you go into the ballot box, you will rank your choices of 4, ifndidates, 1, 2, 3, there are that many candidates. You have a counting of the votes, the candidate who finishes six, they will limit that candidate and see who voted and who did they want as the second choice and they will reassign the votes. At the end of the process, we will have two candidates and one of them will have the majority. The main use of that and one interesting point is that maine has not used that at the president ial level. This time we will see in the Electoral College with the race between donald trump and joe biden, those votes of the thirdparty reassigned and so a different total for the majority will come out of that election in maine and we are watching that to see how it goes. Host lets hear from patricia who voted early in person in new jersey. Caller good morning, america. Good morning, cspan. In 2005. Employment recessiondepression. I voted early because i got so much concerned about the provisional ballot. You could either vote in early in new jersey or you could go to the polling place and it would be a provisional vote. I thought, what is that all about. That is not an immediate vote. That is the only reason i was going to go in person. I could be wrong in my thinking. This, i am 64 and a half and i see america repeating itself from the 60s, the 70s, the 80s and the 90s and 2000 and we are still doing the same thing. I pray for us. And john, someone like you, hello . Host we hear you, thank you for your call. John fortier, she mentioned a provisional vote. What is that . Guest that is worthwhile thinking about as we go into election day. The provisional ballots are ballots that if you show up at the polling place and there is an issue, we think of it as an registration issue. You may be show up and the people tell you that you are not registered and you believe that you are, you are still going to be able to fill out a ballot. But youre going to put it in an envelope like an absentee ballot and that will be sealed and the Election Officials will determine after the fact of whether that vote should count or not. Maybe you really were registered or you can go back and give information that will help them account to that. That is true sometimes if you do not have your id in a state that requires an id or other issues. One thing place where i think that could come at this election and voters should be aware of this is if you receive an mailtee or male ballot, ballots, they are going to know that. Maybe you are told to bring it to the polls and that might be i amh to say here it is not going to cast a mail ballots. What if they are not sure youre going to cast that ballot, they are going to ask you to vote in this different way. It gets sealed in an envelope. You voteoof of whether or not is going to be determined after the election, ok, count that ballot at the polling place. If there was one cast, then when are the others going to be counted. Provisional ballots are not necessarily nobody likes to cast a provisional ballot it is a failsafe for voters who might not have the votes counted at all to have a chance of having their votes counted. It is therefore elected officials to figure out if there is an issue between two ballots, make sure they are not counting both and get the right one counted. Host do you think we will get a number of who voted by mail, that actually got that male ballot and dropped it off at a ballot box in the locality off ballot and dropped it in the locality . Guest some places have been doing this extensively. In colorado, more than half voters vote by drop boxes. Statesome of the new that are doing it for the first time are not reporting at the same way. There are other options that are not necessarily drop boxes. Again, check your state but some places you can drop at a polling place. I think we will see some sense of the numbers but the idea that we have a consistent way of counting exactly how many people dropped off versus mailed in, the numbers are not going to be exact. Host lets hear from frank in West Virginia who voted by mail. Caller how are you all doing today . Host great, thank you. Caller i have two questions. Theof them is who favors lords turnout is the first question. The second question is with Voter Suppression which is done donerent ways, why is it and who doesnt favor who does it favor . There has to be a large turnout. I dont know how you would figure out in this situation had to vote which i primary absentee and i voted in the general absentee. If im not mistaken i think on the general ballot there is a overcode that they can go in West Virginia. Does at curious, who large turnout favor and with Voter Suppression, why and who does it favor . Host a couple of good points. Go ahead. Guest what we know about people that dont vote, they tend to be more democratic. That is partly because Younger Voters do not vote at a high rate. Hispanics and other newer immigrant groups do not vote at a high rate as other groups. If you were to say everybody voted, the vote would be more democratic. But we do not know, of those new people who are voting, whether they are democratic leaning voters or republican. We cannot say for certain that a higher turnout will Favor One Party or another even though all the voters who do not vote to lean more on the democratic side. The Voter Suppression, people mean a lot of things by that when they use those terms. I obviously think we are doing a lot to try to prevent people from actively stopping other people from voting. We also have a lot of issues with the way we vote and people disagree about whether we should have longer deadlines or witness signatures. At the end of the day i really dont think anybody should be thinking about those types of issues with respect to can we suppress the vote of one group or another. There are some differences in the way states want to vote and the systems they want to vote. I think we are going to see significant turnout. Most people who want to vote, the vast majority are going to be able to vote, are not going to be able to be stopped. Host Associated Press headlines this week, florida believes the system is ready. Lets go to daytona, florida and hear from tim who was planning to vote on election day. Caller hi. I just want to make a suggestion before i get to the questions that i want to ask. Should takeguys cspan and get somebody on their that would explain the cost of elections and voting pools and polls and everything and where do they go. I would likeguest, you to explain to the people or if you know how much it costs for each state to set up different polling sites when people go to vote. I know in the primaries because of the covid, they changed our voting, where we used to go vote, to a bigger place to accommodate the covid. What you hear is a lot of people complaining about suppression of votes because the closest they close a polling place and move it somewhere else. We were notified by mail through our Election Commission that they were changing our voting precinct to where we needed to go vote. So a lot of times i feel like people claim suppression of vote is because they have closed their precinct where they go vote at. I think sometimes it is because of the cost and nobody seems to ever say what the cost is. Host great, we got your question. John fortier . Guest it is a really good question and one that is hard to determine and partly because we vote in different ways in different states. You can imagine just taking about some states, they may have many of the polling sites provided by three by the schools and fire stations provided for free. Others, there is a cost associated. There is a big debate between states that do more vote by mail or rather whether they save money because they dont have polling places. Costsrse, we know posting and other costs as well. I think your point is right about the question of polling place closing. It could happen for all sorts of reasons. Normally there are polling places because they are not available and there frankly is some consolidation of polling places over time as we have seen more people voting early or by mail where some of those local polling places may see some dwindling numbers. There are some economics involved, resource allocation, but it is hard to put a number on it and compare place to place given all of the differences between the states. People have been trying to do this for years and i am not sure we have a great handle on it. Host the left question for you. How will you vote this year . Guest despite all i have been saying, i will vote on election day. I planned to vote early. I had some schedule issues on both of the days i was planning to vote early. I was not able to get to an early voting place. I am voting on election day. I would recommend that most people that they vote earlier. I do believe election day is going to be an option for many people. They should not be discouraged. If you have a mail ballot, get it in person. Im going to vote on election day at my polling place in my local area. Continue. Fortier washington jl host is withallan lichtman us. He is here to talk about the Electoral College on washington journal. It is our lovehate relationship with the Electoral College. Article two, section one of the constitution, where are we in 2020 terms of your concerns and what folks should look for . Guest we are the worlds longest continuing running democracy. And that is a great thing. That establishes really Strong Political institutions and a commitment to the traditions of democracy. But on the other hand, it saddled us with some obsolete 18thcentury institutions. Foremost among them is the Electoral College. Back when they set up the Electoral College, the gap populous andeast most populous state, you had a 51 ratio. Today it is well over 601. The Electoral College is biased against the most populous states and biased in favor of the smaller states because no state, no matter what its population, gets less than three Electoral College votes because votes are determined by the number of congressional representatives plus the two senators