Tuesday . Guest currently republicans control . 53 seats and democrats have 45 with two independent that caucus with democrats. How we see things playing out next tuesday, we believe that the most likely outcome is that democrats have a net gain of four to six seats. For the senate you need 51 seats for an absolute majority, or if your Party Controls the white house you only need 50 because the Vice President can break ties. With that projected net gain of between four to six seats we do believe that democrats will take back the senate this year. Host where do the democrats find those four to six seats . What seats do you think democrats will take that will give them that majority . The most basic path to the majority revolves around four seats that were always going to be highly competitive this year, arizona, colorado, maine, and north carolina. All of them represented by republicans, but all states that democrats can do very well in an that President Trump is , if not down win significantly in the president ial election. Those four seats make up the foundation of the path to the majority for democrats. Changehat has made that for those four seats that you identify, that will flip them from republican to democrat in this election, according to your predictions . Guest from the outside of the cycle, it was all race always pretty clear that if democrats are going to take back the senate, they would have to win these four seats. They were must win. Part of the reason is because doug jones of alabama is in a very tough reelection race. He won a very narrow special election and has been viewed as an underdog this year for a long time. When democrats do the math, they generally start not at zero but negative one when they think about how many seats they have to win. Three of those seats, arizona, colorado, and maine are seats where joe biden has done very ,ell, relatively speaking against President Trump. In colorado theres no sense that trump will win colorado, same with maine. Even arizona which is traditionally republican, we have seen democrats be much more competitive over the last several years. Because its easier to win a senate seat, joe biden is and thosehe ticket three were always at the top of the big thingt that has changed is that the president has sent shown no signs of getting his head back into this president ial election. If anything his actions and behaviors have really dragged down a lot of these down ballot republican candidates and a lot of these competitive races. Certainly leaves some target races for democrats. Its not helpful if the president is losing by 10 points versus five points as they probably will in a state like colorado. Is thee important thing second and third tier that we did not think were gonna be so competitive at the beginning of the air, but because the president has dropped so much in his port, not just in and his support, not just in democratic and swing states but pretty republican states, it created a lot of opportunity for democrats to put together multiple paths to the majority. In addition host to that, greater democratic gains are possible. Democrats have done a really good job on this, this is the culmination of a couple of also withhis is really Strong Fundraising and there are depths to which donald supports have fallen since 2016. They have greater opportunities for themselves. When we say greater gains are possible, we are looking at President Trump support currently at low but stable hes doing just poorly enough in these really republican states that there is an opportunity for democrats. There is a possibility that if trumps support is even just a , all of theower states become really precarious for republicans. And they all are at about the same point in time. None of the seats we think maybe most of these seats wont end up turning out for democrats of trump performs above expectation, but if theres even a slight drop in support then many races come online at the same time. Thats why we say greater gains scenarioble, in a bad for republicans they really get wiped out. Host lets have our viewers join in this conversation, we are opening up our regular lines. Republicans we want to hear from you at 202 7488001. Democrats at 202 7488000. Ndependents at 202 7488002 you can always text is your questions at 202 7488003. And we are always reading on on facebook and twitter. Jacob, we have been hearing a lot of talk that the elections may not end on tuesday. That there will be more counting and some uncertainty as we move into figuring out who is our next president. Will we have that same uncertainty about control of the senate . Will we know who wins the senate seats on election nights question mark or do expect to see runoffs and more counting as the weeks go by after election day . Guest it is certainly possible that we wake up wednesday morning and not know who controls the senate next year. Theres a few reasons why. There are two Senate Elections georgia has a pretty unique election clause that requires candidates to actually win an absolute majority of the vote in order to win the election outright in november. When you have more than two candidates on the ballot in a divided state like georgia becomes a very difficult task. If no candidate gets to that 50 plus one magic number, the top two vote getters have to run again in january in a runoff. There are two senate races in georgia, and the possibility that both senate races will proceed to runoffs, meaning there will be two senate seats that we dont know the outcome of in november with a closely divided race that could mean the difference between the majority and minority for democrats. Know is because maine hasnt plummeted a ranked Choice Voting system in which voters dont just pick one candidate, they rank all of the candidates on the ballot. If no candidate gets the majority, the candidate who got the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are reallocated based on the second choices on those ballots. That means that the actual counting process may stretch for at least a week if no candidates get above the majority on the first ballot. In that closely watched race between senator collins and its likely that no candidate is doing is receiving their counsel we may. Ave to wait two but you have moved senate races towards democrats this week, can you slain why . Eludedgeorgia has , this is the year that they are going to win georgia and what we see with the polling data with the democrats is that this is going to be year on the president ial level that the democrats will be able to finally compete seriously in georgia. Both ofhe senate level, the incumbents have serious issues that they contend with and the two democrats are doing very well. We just dont see the president performing particularly strongly in georgia. The combination of all those factors create a lot more and democrats, were a pretty nervous bunch, are cautiously optimistic about and we through georgia we start withost jeanette, in georgia, on the republican line. Caller yes. Hello. Thank you for taking my call. I am voting for trump. Host what about your senate races in florida. Caller yes in florida, im voting for President Trump. Host what about the senate race . Caller what . Host what about the senate race . Caller im voting for President Trump and mike pence. Dee come ongo to the democratic line. Line. Mader your first caller the point that i wanted to. One of the worst things we have done in our society is eliminate civics from the curriculum. This is how you got propaganda and misinformation and people cannot distinguish one thing from another. I used to be a civilian Public Affairs officer for the department of defense when i lived abroad in my service for 10 years. I have seen how autocrats work and how government can follow park and become dictatorial and how it starts fall apart and become dictatorial and how it starts with misinformation. Its amazing to me that in 202070 people dont understand my hope is that once joe biden once joe is elected we could have a serious discussion about compulsory civics being brought back to classrooms. Bob, calling to from texas, on the republican line. Caller good morning gentlemen. Every time i see a pollster or a think tank suit walk out there and tell us who is trending laugh. R why, i just these guys dont know us, they really dont know us. Outside on the beltway and manhattan, very few people put trust into what these polls have to say. All im gonna say is for all of the hope that democrats have in wiping out the republicans this year and taking trump out of office, what are you going to do if hes reelected, are you going to apologize just for being wrong . I dont remember any pollster talking about woops we made a mistake but this is lining up to be 20, even in the senate i think you will see some races surprise people and i wonder how that will settle. Host jacob, can you tell us how you all did in 2016, and any changes you have made for your predictions in 2020 two assure us of how yall are doing your work this time . 2016 there was a sense in the media that there was no way donald trump could win. That sense felt detached from the facts in the data. And the benefit of hindsight when you go back and look at the that we were working off of that time. Though signals are always a , people wereddled saying what they chose to say. And the imagination really weuded judgment thats why ended up with a situation where Hillary Clinton was presented as this indomitable and obvious victor, which did not turn out to be the case. And we at inside elections, we dont just use public polls are national polls, we spend all of our time on talking to sources thingsave a sense of how are playing on the beltway, it can happen that you miss the stories if youre not talking to anyone. We do a good job of that. That we like to cite this on the house of representatives side, which is where you get the most granular and interesting look at the trends that are happening in these races across the country out of projection was the democratic gain in 2016. The final results with six seats. There were some misses on the president ial side which happened across the media, the fundamental story with the most granular data told a pretty true tale in 2016. As to whats happened in 2020, a lot of the folks who go out and to be fair we do look wee make a take a look at all of the polls made public but we dont make our own. So i speak as a reader not a conductor, one of the big things that happened in 2016 was people did not lookveys at how white voters without College Degrees move towards trump. In states where those voters make up significant populations, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, they missed this late uptick for support for the president. Thats a problem they have since corrected. Those samplesting properly to get a better sense of the electorate. When we look at this more , its not just on the public data but also conversations and the data that comes out of the party groups, the super pacs, the campaigns themselves. Theyre so much more of that available on a much more granular level and its really those pieces of information that. E are trying to synthesize its perfectly possible President Trump could win. There was a mistake in 2016 that said it was not possible and that was a mistake. We dont see that from the leadership this time around. It would take a pretty specific and extraordinary set of circumstances at this point for that win to happen, but its not impossible. We have tried to lay out a path for him to do so every time we visit the president ial race because there is a path and there is a chance that he ends. P taking it at this ad. Looking if gary peters wins, it [video clip] itif gary peters wins, empowers the radical left. Their agenda, to force medicare us 34, costing trillion. Killing michigans Auto Industry with the green new deal. Its time for a change because a vote for gary peters is vote. Gainst michigan future host we have a question from a social media follower. Whats the situation with Lindsey Grahams seat. Thats Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, whats the South Carolina senate race look like . Guest the South Carolina senate has had some attention over the last couple months. We rank that is tilted republican with one data point away from a pure tossup. Its a very competitive race in South Carolina, hes running , who isjamie harrison by all accounts a phenomenal candidate. Officever run for public but has proven to be an amazing fundraiser. He holds the record for the largest fundraising call of any Senate Candidate in history. Speakerery compelling and has an amazing story. Hes really been able to put Lindsey Grahams feet to the fire in South Carolina. This is a great example of that kind of secondtier of races that we were talking about earlier in states that democrats have no business winning in but are somehow putting themselves someposition to eke out wins. The president s support has dropped in a state like South Carolina which he won by 14. Oints in 2016 so hes clinging on to a lead of a five to 10 points. Combined with Lindsey Graham being a relatively unpopular senator creates opportunities for a good candidate like harrison to come pullup the upset in South Carolina. Host we have been talking about your prediction that democrats take the senate with four seats. If the republicans hold the line , what are those states that they would need to hold the line to keep control of the senate . Guest the first thing republicans need to do is win all of the races they should be winning already. In south the races carolina, texas, alaska, kansas. So task number one is hold those races. Republicans need to make sure that they dont lose those races in georgia, which they may have to continue fighting for through january, which is an additional task. And they have to win the tossup this isich is in iowa where there are some good challengers. And in iowa, theresa greenfield who has not been a particularly compelling candidate has really proven doubters wrong against her opponent, joni ernst, the incumbent senator, who was a Top Republican candidate but has not performed as strongly as most would have expected. Hey have to do all of that the most likely candidates in maine and colorado are susan collins, whos been around for so long and has her own distinctive brand and she has support in the state which is not directly tied to President Trump space which is President Trumps base. The other thing that would be helpful for republicans to hold the line is the senate race in michigan, where gary peters is facing a strong challenge from john gate john james. He is favoredhink to win that race. Host and you can tell a lot about what political people think about senate races by looking at the money they are spending on those races. Are there any races where we are seeing the National Republicans or the National Democrats moving their money away, showing that they may have said this race is over, lets put money somewhere else . Guest its been fascinating to see, these fights really do come down to the wire in almost every state. The exception is colorado, where republican, ishe the underdog in his reelection against the former governor. Democrats have pulled out and they dont think its competitive anymore. They think their resources are going to be spent elsewhere. Republicans have continued to put money to support senator gardner. So they still think theres a chance that he could eke it out or they would be spending that kind of money on these more competitive races. If you look at where the money is going to, georges number one georgia is number one on this list. If you like every two weeks the Republican Party is putting another 9 million into georgia because they recognize that these races are only becoming more especially and joe biden is only running stronger in georgia. ,f they cannot hold the seats there is little possibility they could walk into 2020 with a Senate Majority intact. One juan,o to in texas, on the independent line. Caller hello, im from the southern part of texas, four minutes away from mexico, im an independent leaning for trump. The reason is, i have been watching all this since before he went down the escalator. Before, people would come in with a lot of people every day, taking jobs away. I cut grass for a living, i do it for 25 along. Cut people come in and grass for 15. Taking jobs away. Other than that, if you think about it, can you imagine with with open borders, could you imagine if hillary would have won . Or joe biden with an open border policy . Covid19 is going to get dangerous. ,ost lets talk about texas how does john cornyns race look in texas . That race as lean republican. Hes a real favorite in that race. What makes it interesting is that joe biden is very competitive in texas. We view texas as a tossup on the president ial level, no democrat has won texas for president since jimmy carter, but joe biden is tied or even a little ahead in the state depending on who you believe. What that means for the senate race is that there is an outside possibility is that a democratic candidate could pull off an upset. And all you would have to do to win as a democrat is to win over the joe biden voters, you dont have to worry about winning over any donald trump voters so a democrat running against an established republican, the math becomes far easier if joe biden is winning at the top of the ticket. We think texas is a tossup on the president ial level. We think for hagar to win the senate seat seat, joe biden has to win texas by a few points to spare because we do think there will be minimal drop off between the president ial and senate ballot. Thats why we give john cornyn the edge. Even if biden wins texas by a handful of votes, we think he could eke it out. But if joe biden puts up a larger victory, there is a real chance that mj hagar could win and take back the sea. Host one of our social media followers wants to ask about split ticket and locations in Key Senate Races and the possibility of the georgia runoff which could control determine the control of the senate. And peter might lose in michigan is it common for a president to win and the other party keeps control of their senate seat or is it one party wins the president the and that party also takes the senate seat . Guest for most of the 20th century there was a fair amount of ticket splitting and it was tofectly common for voters vote for one party for president support in those states. It is more interesting in the second tier of states. The president s level of support and a lot of these places has dropped so low that even a marginal amount of tickets could mean the difference between a Democratic Victory and defeat. Take a state like kansas, that ined for donald trump by 20 2016. We think he is barely winning kansas by more than five or six points at this point. That is how far he has fallen in some of these heavily republican areas. The democratic candidate does 10 , 15 ,o win over herof trump voters to win race come up just 5 . There are plenty of people out who will vote for a candidate of another party, we saw that in 2018. The Current Governor of kansas, a democrat was able to win that open seat as a democrat running in kansas. That is a good indicator there are republicans in kansas that will vote for a democrat. Host lets look for some more ads out of these senate races. Lets turn to colorado. I have a simple message, do not believe these ridiculous attack ads. They are partisan nonsense. He is a decent public servant. I have seen him refuse to give up on expanding Health Coverage when nobody else thought it was possible. Ann hickenlooper is effective and passionate leader and we need that right now. I am John Hickenlooper and i approve this message. Senators gets two we chose one republican and one democrat and it works. We got the Space Command move here to colorado. I convinced republicans to fully fund water and Land Conservation for the first time ever. Even John Hickenlooper admitted i get the job done. If you believe in progress more than partisanship, i am asking for your support. I am cory gardner. Host we talked about colorado earlier in this segment. I want you to address that split ticket that we just heard in the ad. How important is it to voters in states that they have a split republican, one democratic senator, or does that not matter in most senate races . Guest it is becoming rare to have one from each party. There is an increasing level in polarization for a candidate like cory gardner. Ads are anse running onon he is specific achievements that he takes credit for to deal with the state of colorado. He is running on a notion that you should send a balance team to washington, d. C. The reality is none of them are working. Down higher is single, low double digits in every single poll i have seen in the last month. That is donald trump is losing colorado by a wide margin. If donald trump was only losing colorado by the five points he lost in 2016, cory gardner would have a chance in this race. There is so much anger and frustration at the Republican Party, it is difficult to see how a senator like cory gardner, who has tied himself closely to President Trump over the last several years, has not try to walk a more independent path that his colleagues have done. Associated with trump at the end of the day. Mean he will lose by 10 points instead of 15. It is still a loss. Peggy from talk to georgia on the democratic line. Is a different city in georgia. In 2016. Epublican after, i realized i made a mistake. Asm now supporting joe biden well as our democratic senators. The Republican Party lost me completely. They take allegiance to trump instead of truly being a republican. I am coming down on the democratic side this time. Host lets talk about georgia. See whether there will be a runoff . If there is a runoff, how long will it take for us to find out who won the runoff . I willthe first thing say, of these two Georgia Senate races, it is almost certain at least one of them will go to a runoff. This is a special election that resigned lasthe year. He was replaced. By Governor Brian Kemp in georgia. Ther n