A chance just to continue to build on that relationship already and really the new Prime Minister life is a devotee of the alliance, someone committed to ensuring the u. S. Relationship remains the cornerstone of National Security and foreign policies in the region. Looking forward to deepening this relationship further over the months ahead. Met, thisime we had was there important. Wasministers, our feeling it was a pretty grueling schedule. The secretary spent 20 hours on the ground before turning around and coming back here. Thinkeally represents i an understanding among our countries about the need for democracies to get together and discuss our interests in the way that we can cooperate and address the challenges in the region and around the world. Forreally request thanks the overview. Really appreciate that read out. This shows primarily focused on northeast asia and geopolitical issues, what should the koreans ,ake away from this in terms of obviously, something that comes relations andyo the trilateral relationship. I think many recognize the importance of productive relations among the three countries. And among the top issues we share, i fully expect that going the president lower with our shared challenge but at the same time, we are looking for further ways to cooperate. It is important for us to recognize shared values with shared goals and hopefully, as we proceed, we try to find a way to address their issues in a way that respects the past but but does take us to a brighter the future. An opportunity for improving ties or trilateral reading thetween nation and the new Prime Minister and secretary pompeos trip to the region . Marc the trilateral relationship was among the topics that the secretary raised. As with any new slate, new leader, that does always present opportunities. We have to be skillful and how we do it. Certainly a lot of our efforts to work with our partners come and the region. We try to be discreet when we deal with these matters. We see opportunities to try to improve things. A warm exchange of greetings between president moon and the new Prime Minister. We will start here and see how things go. Mark thank you for that interesting take. Victor, i want to come to you on the trilateral and the seoul tokyo piece. Comments on this basket of issues. Seoul, tokyo, trilateral relationship. Victor sure. Mark is being diplomatic because he is a diplomat. This relationship i wrote a book on this. It is about as bad as it has ever been, unfortunately. I think that there is an opportunity with a new Prime Minister. I dont think he ever intended for the relationship to be bad. He spoke about korea and his first speech in the United States. It was at csis. He did his best on the deal. He wanted to build relations with korea, but so much happened and as the Prime Minister, he became an obstacle to any possible improvement in relations. Sue is there, even though suga is like abe ii, there are still opportunities because the personalities have changed. Pompeo was in tokyo and raised it with both suga and trilateral. It is important that that happened. On the korean side, the president it was good that they made positive statements with suga, positive, forwardlooking. The main thing is that they have to see it as important, even if its not conducive to any sort of improvement in korean relations. Theyre focus like a laser on interkorean relations in the year and a half they have left. President moon spoke at another event last night where the primary thing that he talked about, after he thanked everybody for inviting him, the only thing he talked about was a piece declaration. So, blue house needs to think about cannot see trilateral and seoultokyo relations as being irrelevant to that goal. They need to understand that this is important. You have to get a consensus from everybody. I think that is the primary dilemma. They see no need for it because they do not see it as a gold they are trying to achieve. Mark you have also teed up our interkorean topic that we will be coming to shortly. You gave an overview of the importance of values that these other Prime Ministers came to tokyo to engage in an important dialogue. In the background briefing, on the return trip by the secretary, there were quotes from Senior State Department officials on background who talked about how the secretary would move to institutionalize this framework. Two questions, what does that mean and what can we expect to see Going Forward . Marc victor a brief history of the quad. It started in 2004. Over the years, the dream of the quad has waxed and waned and that has been the result of this recognition that our countries Share Interests and values. We think about regular rising it regularizing it to come up with something at lower levels but also Something Like a work plan which would include a number of cooperative efforts in different areas, whether it is security, or infrastructure development, or Traditional Development assistance, or the energy sphere. It is still early. It is meant to be envisioning a fabric that would connect all of us throughout the region. And perhaps a question you have about other participation. It was never meant to be exclusive. It is meant to have other countries aspire to join, but share the values of those currently involved. Well see how it goes from here. Very positive mood coming out of tokyo and all four of our capitals are committed to make this work. Mark outstanding. Like victor, you beat me to the spot. Kia is a sponsor of the nba. You would have beaten me to the spot and established position. Let me ask one followup on that, many of the issues that you talked about, shared values, there is also a talk about ozzien which seems to double toward the policy. Is this something that the state department is encouraging the state department to look at . There is a little between tpp and other institutional frameworks in the region. The koreans were interested. There was a moment where the koreans felt that they might be outside looking in. Is this something that the state Department Might be talking to the koreans about, good to take a look at this. Where are we on that basket of issues . Marc the two countries have spent a lot of time talking about the specific strategy for our part and creating new southern policy. How they interact and overlap and how we can complement each other. This idea about neutrality is key to the four quad members in the region. I think we have to see. We are at the point where we are trying to figure out among the four of us how this should work. The minister mentioned publicly that the idea of a quad plus not foreclosing anything. Dont want to be exclusive or insular, but do want to get this fabric and make it tighter and clearer before we start to think about building it out. Mark victor, who going to come to you sue, i will come to you in a second to kick off topic two, but victor any thoughts to close out topic one . Victor this started in 2004. It was my first week at the nsc when the tsunami hit. It started out focused on disaster response. Disaster preparation. Then it became an informal grouping into thousand five and 2006 where there were regular confrontations including what was happening in iraq and afghanistan. When i step back and look at this, the primary manifestation of an effort to network. To take what are line segments and turn them into triangles, trilaterals or quadsplus, as marc said. Clearly, there is no language about china in the quad. It is about inclusion and all of this. The joke that everybody says is when you have a Group Greater than three, it starts to look like something that is directed against china. Either the language on this neither the language on this nor the way that they framed it is good. Trying to multilateral lies more stuff in asia. The fact that they talked about from the osion perspective, they dont want to see any structures squeezing out these organizations are useful when they dont say we will just focus on one thing. It is kind of amorphous. It is more functional than it is institutional. When you Start Talking about institutionalization and regularization, then we are talking about a secretariat then you start to get concerns about inclusion and exclusion. Mark we wont get into it here today but a timehonored theme in this program about korea, china, u. S. , the squeeze, all of that. You can see that extent in decisionmaking and surveying the quad from the korean peninsula. Top number two coming up is north korea october 10 party day celebration. Have 1010 party day. Every five years, there is something significant in terms of demonstration of military capability, something along those lines. Number three, lots of open source chatter. Imagery about something coming. Take onmy and expert north korea. What are we seeing now . What are we likely to see and what are the takeaways that you think will come out of the 1010 Celebration Party day . Thank you. You are right. Days, i think they were that strategic weapon will be displayed. Signal its important to strength and defiance at home and internationally to show that despite all of the domestic troubles that we have been talking about in our program for the last two months, sanctions, covid, typhoons a triple whammy. That he is strong. That he needs to display strength. Despite that, he promised in the new years address that he would reveal out new weapon sometime this year. As you mentioned, you have done your homework that every five years, he does something significant. Five years ago, 2015 the parade. They show cast a new icbm design. The 65th anniversary, they introduced a new missile. Which was the first missile to we have some journalists saying that he will display a strategic weapon in the new years address. They you he needs to project strength. We have this president into fiveyear showcase something new. Whether it is someone who pointed out on our show, a missile payload contained several warheads. Each capable of being aimed at a different target which makes it very difficult to intercept, makes the Missile Defense much more difficult. Whatever that is, i think you will have a display. You also talked about the issue its going to be something big. New, i showing something think they will show other stuff. To show that they are massproducing strategic weapons. Scores of something. Then, they have to show they are massproducing this stuff. It is all a warning to washington whoever comes in november whether it is trumps second term or Vice President biden, that north korea is producing more missile material. It is extending its Nuclear Missile arsenal. Just to tease that last piece out, they are walking a bit of a line. They have domestic politics as you mentioned. They have a five Year Anniversary for lack of a better term. There is a desire to do something big, but they also are dealing with this in the middle of u. S. Election. Unlike 15 or 10, its a little different. What kind of line do they have to walk . This is not a normal election year. Normally you would see this, and csis with the study, which is a window. The average of 4. Five weeks, its before or after the election so we we have seen something instead of provocation. Its not a normal election year. There are things to consider. First youd like to deal with President Trump rather than biden so probably wants to see trump reelected. In this case he doesnt want to make trouble for President Trump, biden and provocation. If the provocation comes, i do think its going to be after the election and particularly if if its President Biden. Transition time, lets say post election to biden coming in in january, and thats the time to watch out for. If its President Trump who is reelected then i think that kym kims calculation is changed, because he said, he wants to negotiate and get some sanctions relieved. Sue, thanks for your out standing take. Victor, your take on this. The thing im looking for the october 10 parade is whether people are going to be wearing masks, that has the potential to be a big super spreader event and then, yeah, i mean, i dont disagree with sues analysis. I think its i think that thats whats likely to happen, that well see provocations after, if biden wins. I think for two reasons, one is tactical. They want to always approach a new administration from a position of strength and so they always feel, whether its right or wrong, they feel like doing Something Like this gives them a position of strength. The others, they will immediately associate a President Biden with obamas strategic patience and they would want to send a clear signal that thats not going to work. Like were not going to stand for that, you know, something along those lines. And of course, what happens is if they do that, it becomes a selffulfilling prophesy because thats going to naturally influence or shape the policy review that would take place on North Carolina as soon as the new administration comes in. And if trump wins, i was on doing a conference with someone else who, you know, who is very close to the once worked in the administration was very close to trump, and is deeply involved in the campaign and he said to me that he thought if trump wins, he will do a summit with kim jongun right away, right away. And he said, and hell probably make a deal that you experts will hate. But hell play it up as his greatest deal ever, the reason hell do that is because, one, trump as an individual doesnt like loose ends. And so this is a loose end. And two, he as this person said, trump went all in on north korea. Theres no other issue where he personally went all in on in his first term and went out and met the leader all of this sort of stuff. With china, it was put lighthizer out there and wilbur ross. He went all in on north korea. He cant have that not succeed for him. So you know, so he thinks its likely that there will be this meeting right away. All right, thanks, victor, good stuff. Ive asked sue and victor to talk a little about the near, shortterm, medium term future. Mark. Take us back to the present. Where are we to recap the latest rounds . It seems like lines of communication are still open between the leaders. There was a letter a week or so ago. Can you tell us where we are in terms of dprk relations and the posture at this point in time . Yeah, i think weve continued to maintain and publicly and secretary pompeo has on a couple occasions recently that we remained open to dialog, remained open to a diplomatic solution, that we continue to hope to actualize, you know, the spirit of the singapore statement and the goals contained therein, normizing and transformation on the u. S. North korea, relations and northsouth relations, et cetera. So at that remains. At the same time until north korea responds to the will of the International Community and addresses this nuclear and illicit missile program, the Pressure Campaign will continue. I would point out that of course, chairman kim recently announced or released publicly, you know, the sympathy note or some kind of expression of, you know, get well soon kind of card to President Trump, which i dont know if anybody remembers the last time the north koreans publicly expressed sympathy to the United States was 9 11. So, its been 19 years since weve had that kind of, you know, public expression of sympathy. So, take it as you will, but its a good sign, i suppose, that chairman kim is watching and expressing concern about our leader. Okay. Thanks, mark, im tempted to ask you what do you make of the fact that its been 19 years and we havent had an express like that, as you mentioned. Any thoughts there or are you just, youre just noting it for the record, more or less . I dont know, i suppose its a reflection that over 19 years weve been fortunate enough not to have a repeat of Something Like 9 11, but, no, i wont venture a guess on to why or whether, is there any other thought that similar notes over the years. Okay. Fair enough. Lets move on to interkorean discussions here, related topic. So lets stay on that. Were on the subject of north korea in terms of the u. S. Lets shift it to the peninsula a bit. And lets look at these two pieces. First, lets take this one first. We still have continuing fallout from this incident at sea where the dprk apparently captured and then subsequently killed and burned the body of a south korean government official. Mark, just two things, one, it seems like military tensions are still pretty high, at least according to open sources in south korea, the medias reporting on that and two, interestingly, the blue house, according to open source reports, if im correct here, put out a statement that National Security, Robert Obrien last thursday expressed, first of all, condolences of course for the terrible tragedy. But also, on a policy issue, support for the south korean governments proposal to find, im quoting here, truth through truth through the inner korean dialog. Comments on both of those issues, tensions and the inner korean piece as well. You know, very virtually within the same day as the south korean government came out with its expression of outrage about what happened, you we came in behind them and offered our support for the south koreans. And certainly, you know, were as eager as they are to get to the bot many of what happened. Thats a tragic incident. If theres a way through some kind of joint effort to find an opening to improve relations as the National Security advisor said. Then lets see. I think, you know, president moon has expressed his desire that this be an opportunity to improve northsouth relations, but, and of course, you know, well just have to see how that goes. Im not sure if the north has yet responded to this entreaty from president moon, but, yeah, were certainly watching it closely. All right, thanks. Let me take it one step up before i come back to sue. Mark, one quick followup is that victor mentioned earlier that president moon gave another speech where he mentioned interkorean policy initiatives for lack of a better word. Two, there has been a lot of, it seems, chatter and slosh or push out of soul to improve the interkorean relation. How is washington thinking about these initiatives rit large and how are you managing this . Is this cause frictions with the sanctions regime and how are we managing through these issues in terms of the bilateral relationship . Weve always seen improvement in interkorean relations as being hand in hand with our shared goal of denuclearization and the north Korea Nuclear programment theyre inextricably linked. And this is why intense conversations at every level take place and this is the working point in which we sit down, representatives of our inner agency and representatives of south koreas inner agencies and ministry of Foreign Affairs and others, work out and make sure were in lockstep and that nuclearization ends and were moving forward and able to complement each other. Let me come to sue. Sue, your take on any of this. Theres a whole just a number of different ways we could take this, but you know, im particularly interested in your take in what do you think prospects are for any sort of innerkorean spot in the wake of this incident at sea and moon jaeins recent statements . Any change from previous positions where i think youve noted skepticism on this . And, too, your thoughts on how we might manage this through the washingtonseoul Alliance Relationship . So, marc, i remain skeptical. I fully understand president moons desire to make progress and make a breakthrough with north korea and the speech with the peace declaration and why not. You were talking about a saga with a man killed and burned by the north korea military. I dont know if youve read this heartwrenching letter that the victims teenage son wrote. Hes a sophomore in high school, hes close in age with my son. You know, he wrote this heartfelt letter pleading with president moon to find out, you know the truth of what happened with this whole incident and how to, now, please, president moon, mr. Biden