Your ears perked up on thursday night when President Trump declared at that debate that he thinks republicans are going to retake the house november 3. Is that possible . Current outlook is a democratic net gain in the house. Nancy pelosi is in line to expand her majority and there are a couple reasons why the picture in the house is pretty much a mirror image of what we thought a year ago when they be republicans pick up a handful of seats. That republicans are really being dragged down by trump in what i would characterize as second order suburb. Are suburbs of traditionally conservative metro areas. A lot of the democrats flipped blue were suburbs of really blue major metro areas like the suburbs of denver orner than virginia. Or northern virginia. Seeing st. Louis, omaha, cincinnati. Places that are more traditionally conservative but where republicans are struggling to rise above that drag. Is money. Factor democrats have outraised republicans all cycle. Their donor base is fired up and passionate and increasingly has a lot of disposable income. We saw democrats outraised republicans compared to republicans out raising democrats in just 15 democratic held house seats. A big factor all cycle has been open seats. We saw a disproportionate number of House Republicans head for the exits. Today there are 32 open seats without a republican incumbent on the ballot. Democrats have stellar opportunities to pick up republican seats in north the lines were redrawn before this cycle. Which has become the epicenter of the house battleground there are three open seats that democrats have the chance to pick up. This is really a story of a battlefield that has increasingly tilted to democrats and could be really important 2022n insurance policy in if democrats do have unified control of the house, senate and in party hasthe lost a couple dozen seats in the house. The more democrats can pad their advantage, the tougher it will be for republicans to dig out of the ditch. Have questions about an individual house race, now would be a very good time to call in and ask your questions. We can talk about the race ratings that the Cook Political Report does. 202 7488001 republicans. 202 7488000 democrats. 202 7488002 independents. So in a year in which the house is not likely to flip, the senate is much more likely to flip and amid a president ial campaign that is sucking up all of the attention, what is your pitch to people of why they should Pay Attention . How do sell house races and battlegrounds this cycle . Are a number of compelling battles out there. Mightst unique situation be virginias fifth district. There is a congressman named lost to a former Liberty University athletics official named bob good who describes himself as an biblical conservative. Now the Democrat Cameron webb has an excellent chance to win it. Hes a 37yearold africanamerican doctor and official at uva medicine. And if there is high africanamerican turnout in southside virginia and high turnout of young voters in the charlottesville area, that could be one of the biggest upsets. There are a lot of compelling storylines in the house battlefield. Going to determine a lot of whats possible legislatively in 21 and 2022. There are going to be a number of democrats from conservative leaning districts who take a pass on the more Progressive Agenda items on the docket if democrats do have full control of government. The larger their margin in the house, the easier it would be to work with a couple of defections on key votes. Host do you think you could reverse engineer the results do you think you have a better sense of whats going to happen in the president ial race because you are so involved in these house races . Thats a great point. One of the reasons i love covering house races is they give you an insight into microtrends at the top of the ticket. We are getting reams of data at the district level. Conducted atolling the president ial race isnt made public. Its conducted by the parties making spending and resource allocation decisions in these congressional races. Between 50 and 60 they areonal races testing the top of the ticket. We have good insight into whats happening. In 2016i was seeing flashing red theing sign for places like Upper Peninsula of michigan and the Southern Tier of new york and northern wisconsin. Had been fiveat points in september were in the double digits or 15 points in october. That was what led me to write a about how trump had a chance of winning the white house without winning the popular vote. Isare noticing that trump under performing his margins from 2016 by eight to 10 points across the board in both republican and democratic . That is the biggest tell that the National Polling is pretty on target. Like one of the things we to do when we have David Wasserman on is play some of the ads that voters are seeing in their district right now. They are playing one of the National Messages in the president ial campaign for democrats especially is a focus on health care. Heres one of the ads focusing on health care in georges sixth congressional district. Here is that ad from the Democratic House majority pac. No one should Lose Health Coverage because they have a preexisting condition like cancer or high blood pressure, especially during this pandemic. Supportedhandel Donald Trumps plan to strip away protection from preexisting conditions. Karen handel, helping donald trump take away our health care. Host David Wasserman on that message. Republicans lost in 2016. Handel said she had one of the truck august metrics, trump support she was thinking about a district that had been republican for years. This district in the northern atlanta suburbs is absolutely abandoning trumps rent of republicanism at a rapid rate and we are seeing this happen across highly College Educated suburbs all over the country. This race is almost entirely off the board. The National Republicans are no longer spending here to support handle because they have had to move so many of their resources to playing defense. Host we played the democratic add and a place where republicans are spending money is the Third District race in michigan. Focusing on the democrat who is running for that seat. Fringe leftwing activists demanding sanctuary cities, open borders. We need immigration policy that reflects this inherent freedom of movement. Copslped the aclu sue while protecting an actual criminal. You dont get to make the laws if you help people break the law. Host the immigration issue in 2020. 200 33 democrats in the house, 201 republicans, and one libertarian from michigans Third District. This is the race for his open seat in west michigan. Seeing the immigration issue pop up across a few dozen districts. Hillarys colton that the democratic nominee has been an immigration attorney for a number of years. Whats fascinating is republicans have to work extra hard to motivate their voters for the down ballot race because the republican nominee peter of a huge young psion grocery chain, Meyer GroceryStores Across michigan. And has not really embraced trump so much on the campaign trail and has had the luxury of running on his own personal family brand and his family fortune. Up democrat has been playing her work for faithbased organizations, a charity in grand rapids. She is banking on a Strong Performance from joe biden in michigan, particularly in the whichs of grand rapids are increasingly professional and although trump carried this bytrict by 84 years ago ht four years ago host there are plenty of callers and we are happy to talk about house races around the country. What are you interested in . Give us a call on phone lines. This is regina. Republican. Good morning. Caller good morning. How are you . Great. How are you . Caller im great. Im interested in some house races going on in my area. I live in the ohio cincinnati area. Curious about Thomas Massies ,ace, also Warren Davison district eight in ohio as well as steve shaaban. Great questions. Thomas massie was going to supposedly have a competitive primary. It didnt turn out so competitive after revelations of some online comments his opponent had made. Kentuckys Fourth District is an. Bsolutely safe republican seat the race that we are really paying attention to in cincinnati is the Steve Shabbat district which is ohios first district. This is the city of cincinnati and some of its more upscale suburbs like mason. In 2018, democrats nominated a candidate who was a Hamilton County clerk of course. In aded up getting caught scandal that sunk his campaign. It was one of the few races where republicans escaped in the midterms. His former Campaign Treasurer apparently embezzled over 100,000 and that has come up in democratic ads. Kate schroeder picked the right year to run because this is another case where trump carried the district by six points in 2016 but biden is pulling ahead. That could lift schroeder on the congressional ticket. Its funny because in 2008, shabbat lost the seat in the obama wave two years after the year when democrats took back the house so history could repeat itself. Host northeast of macon, georgia. Democrat. Good morning. Caller good morning. For me here in georgia, this Campaign Season has been about the restoration of decency, faith in the constitution and the rule of law. Here in georgia we have brian kemp who craven lee and out trump oned to the covid19 response. We have david perdue who could not run fast enough to his brokers to monetize what he knew about the coronavirus and its effects on our communities. Doug collins and Kelly Loeffler who are racing to the bottom towards crazy and qanon. So i am so excited to be voting for a candidate on the lower ballot. Knock. Rafale more they have a real chance in georgia to turn our state blue so im super excited. Can you speak to those candidates for me . Thank you. Georgia is really a fascinating state in 2020 and of course joe biden is going to be traveling to georgia which is big news because for the most part democrats have focused their energy on what we would consider the core battleground states in the upper midwest and states like florida and arizona. Georgia, theres a chance that both of those senate races on the ballot and up going to a january 5 runoff. The calculus for democrats in the state is that they need to run up the margins in both atlanta and the atlanta suburbs. Democrats have a pickup opportunity in Gwinnett County which is the seventh congressional district. Is democrat Carolyn Bordeaux in my opinion the slight favorite to pick up a seat against republican er doctor rich mccormick. That district has seen an awful lot of spending but anything touching Gwinnett County might he cursed for republicans this year considering how much of a howing pot its become and its professional workforce has migrated out of the republican coalition. The real key in my opinion for who is going to win the state both at the president ial and the senate level is going to be rural africanamerican turnout. We know that both republicans and Metro Atlanta voters are fired up. In 2016, we saw black turnout in rural georgia go down. One of my favorite bellwethers in the state is peach county. Its home to the bluebird bus corporation. It happens to be the best bellwether because in 2012 when black turnout was 73 in the county, barack obama managed to carry it. When it fell to 54 , donald trump carried it. Can kamalan is tickets addition to the raise turnout in rural georgia to the point where democrats can win statewide. Host if one or both of these senate races go to a january runoff, what does lower turnout who benefits from lower turnout . Most likely republicans. That has been the pattern in georgia for a number of years. Democrats probably have the better opportunity to win outright in the produce seat because we know the other seat is essentially a jungle primary on the november 3 ballot thats guaranteed to go to a runoff. Once you get to a runoff scenario, it could actually be Kelly Loeffler the other republican who is in more danger of losing just because of her more polarizing personality. She has run a series of fairly bizarre ads calling herself more conservative than attila the hun. Outpace the other republican in that Senate Special election could harm her in a runoff against rafael warnock. When david perdue mangled kamala name while introducing the president at a rally last week, it was reminiscent of a 2006 moment when Virginia Republican senator george allen called his opponent tracker macaca. Today virginia is a safe democrat state. Are afraid of diversifying georgia in the same direction. Host jack, independent, good morning. Caller im curious these days of how pulling is done. If i get a call on my cell phone, i dont answer if i dont recognize the number. Im curious how pulling is done. The most frequent question i probably get is can we still trust the polls after what happened in 2016 and the caller brings up an important point which is that Response Rates to polls are in the low Single Digits so we are relying on 2 or 3 of people willing to respond to these phone surveys to model what the other 97 are thinking and we are bound to have some error in polls. In 2016 the final pulling average showed Hillary Clinton up between three and four points and she ended up winning the popular vote by three point one. Historically that was not a very large pulling error. It might have not even really been a pulling error when you brokeate deciders disproportionately in favor of donald trump. We are seeing a consistent picture between the National Polls and the district level pulls that joe biden outperforming clinton by nine or 10 points versus where the margin was his in 2016. I would caution viewers is we have noticed a pattern or pulling has tended to underestimate republican support in the upper midwest and perhaps republican overestimate democrats in the southwest. Thats one reason i might be more bullish on joe biden and democrat chances in the state like arizona as opposed to wisconsin or even pennsylvania. We will see on november 3. Will head to detroit, michigan. Caller i was interested in the campaign for Lauren Underwood in naperville, illinois. This is the district that accredits won in 2018. They flipped to blue. This time around republicans had high hopes of winning at back. This is the outer chicago suburbs and Lauren Underwood is a young former Public Health nurse in her early 30s and an africanamerican who is able to win a district that is less than 10 black. Is perhaps a missed opportunity for republicans. They were trying to nominate a fresh face for the seat. Instead they and stop having a very ended up having a very divisive primary and the winner with only a quarter of the vote hasa dairy businessman who run for statewide office in illinois Something Like eight or nine time and has never won. He has gotten a lot of negatives from those bruising races he has run and most voters are familiar with him as a perennial candidate and dont particularly have a fond opinion of him. Pretty muchthat has moved off the table where republicans are no longer putting up much of a fight. Report is political where you can go to find ratings we are talking about. We are taking calls asking what races are you interested in around the country. 202 7488001 republicans. 202 7488000 democrats. 202 7488002 independents. A couple more ads on the topic houseing to tie these candidates to more wellknown republicans and democrats. With the start antitax group the club for oath. Heres that ad. Spanberger truly cared about virginia, why would she vote against virginia . Nearly as much with socialist aoc. Why would she support higher income taxes on virginians and why would she take so much money from defund the police extremists . If she truly cared about virginia. Because the truth is she doesnt. Host that ad running in virginias seventh district. There is this ad by the House Majority pac it is spending quite a bit of money this cycle tying republican candidate with van dyne to donald trump in district. Th beth van dyne and donald trump joined at the hip on health care. They supported a plan to take away health care from millions and protections for preexisting conditions and then ignore the science, recklessly siding with politicians on reopening. Their health care record is sickening. Host that ad running in that open 24 district race. On tying the candidates to others in the party to try to turn vote or amplify your side. Problem for republicans is that voters see them as the incumbent party functionally with donald trump in the white house. Typically reelection campaigns for president s become referenda on the incumbent white house and in this case thats not helpful to republicans. Republicans message against nancy pelosi and aoc may be more effective in a midterm year when democrats are advancing their own policy initiatives through the house and senate. Politicale if the environment worsens in that scenario. For now Abigail Spanberger is ahead of her opponent in the richmond suburbs. We are seeing in texas 24th district, that has become such a hotbed of corporate relocations from lou states like california but both irving texas and plano texas are moving rapidly in democrats direction. Its going to be awfully hard for republicans to hold onto democratila receipt named candace vallance willa who is afro latina is probably the favorite to flip that seat blue. A republican in bradenton. Good morning. Caller im actually in saint augustine. I just want to say im a big fan. I follow you religiously on twitter. Even though im a republican, i voted for joe biden because of my opposition to trump. I wanted to ask about the Supreme Court it looks like Amy Coney Barrett will be confirmed and there will be a six to three conservative majority. Suppose biden gets elected and democrats take both houses of congress, how much of an impact would a conservative Supreme Court have on bidens agenda and how would it play politically . I think it depends a lot on how the Supreme Court retrospectively views the aca and roe v. Wade. I should note that in your backyard we are watching a competitive congressional race between incumbent republican Vern Buchanan who has held the seat for over a decade and mccright margaret good who beat his son in a special election for the statehouse last cycle. Wars are heating up even in traditionally republican parts of florida like sarasota. Biden ishere joe looking for a lot of vote growth over Hillary Clinton. In today innate is a rare sunday session. Debate on theinue nomination of judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. Producerapitol hill craig kaplan noted that mitch toonnell making the request recess yesterdays session. Nobody objected. When they come back today at noon there is expected to be a debate on the baruch nomination 30 hours and that is expected to take place on the Senate Floor Today which would set up a final vote on judge barretts sometime tomorrow afternoon monday. You can watch it all on cspan2. Caller good morning for taking my call. Im a main street workingclass patriot and the difference to me is that if you look at politics, big money from wall street is behind a lot of the ads and im a progressive. Proud progressive because to me that stands for human progress. And the conservatives, the big money behind the scenes is about conserving wealth and power and i see this as a human problem, not a uniquely american problem. Thats why im a progressive. I believe in rights for all. But the race i wanted to ask mr. Wasserman about was the race in and Paula Jean Swearingen is running against republican Shelley Moore capito and i think she was from a coal mining owners family and im wondering how paula dean is doing because i would think her populist past would help her because of the coal mining. In West Virginia they werent following safety procedures. Why theynderstand wouldnt be more prounion. I would like to hear mr. Wassermans comments. Thank you. The West Virginia senate race is not competitive. We see it as solidly republican. News is the margin in West Virginia is not likely to be the 42 points that trump won the state in 2016. We have seen a couple polls that suggest that joe biden is doing a bit that are than Hillary Clinton did in the state and the reason is hes been able to. Eclaim populism that democrats lost that mojo in because if you look at Hillary Clintons ads, they were focused on donald trump and his character and temperament while donald trump was focused on the economy. Democrats have done a much better job this year of focusing on breadandbutter economic issues, talking about health care and the minimum wage, joe bidens ads have talked a lot about scranton versus wall street and tried to frame the race that way. Although biden is not getting back to the percentages that obama did, hes getting back from Hillary Clintons low points. In many of these states, thats enough. There are parts of pennsylvania that culturally look a lot like West Virginia. Much of ohio as well. Added enthusiasm for for losing badly is really an important part of the electoral calculus. Is tim out of california. Republican. Good morning. Caller did joe biden and kamala for u. S. Kids president . Host do you have a question . Caller did joe biden and kemal harris cage kids first selfie making and tim callan caring for u. S. President . I have no comment. Next out ofs birmingham, alabama. Independent. Good morning. Caller good morning. I will be so glad when this election is over. I will be glad for trump to leave office because im exhausted. To the lady from missouri who wants to blame obama the republicans tried to block him at every turn. To the man from california who wanted to talk about hunter biden, talk about the trump kids. All of them are just as crooked as their daddy. And the republicans are trying to groom them to take over once daddy is gone. Like theto make them bushes and the clintons. We cannot stand another four years of trump hes talking about leaving the country. I will make a donation. Host sheila in alabama this morning. Did you want to pick up on anything she brought up . Higher amazing how much democratic enthusiasm is this year versus 20 when theres actually a republican in the white house. That tends to be an important motivator for the out party. We are going to see turn out that is record shattering this year. I think we are headed for a total number of votes cast between 150 and 160 million. That doesnt necessarily mean that democrats are going to win the white house in and of itself because in the upper midwest a lot of the eligible nonvoters in 2016 workingclass whites, the demographic were trump broke through. In the sunbelt a lot of eligible voters were minorities and young people thats why we are looking at potentially a bigger shift towards democrats and a lot of suburbs whereas trump is trying to hold the line in the upper midwest and great lakes states. Has hite United States 119 of its total 2016 early voting and theres still nine days to go. Brian out of hillsborough, North Carolina. Caller thank you for taking my call. Yesterday just started doorknocking for the Biden Harris Campaign and i wanted to ask about any data that might be available to suggest the effectiveness of doorknocking as a tactic as opposed to phone calls which weve been doing for months now and text messaging which weve been doing for months now. There was some criticism about the Biden Campaign not doing doorknocking in competitive states like North Carolina. Aboutal question would be the Richard Hudson race. His ads have gotten increasingly negative and i would just like to know what you think about that race in the tactic of going negative, what that tells you about where a race might stand. Thats a very highprofile race in North Carolina between incumbent republican Richard Hudson and democratic challenger Pat Timmons Goodson who is the first black woman to serve on the state Supreme Court. That race is getting an awful lot of attention from the parties. Trump won this district by nine points in 2016. The fact that its competitive is a strong sign for democrats. Isthe end of the day this still a culturally conservative district that includes four bragg and a lot of conservative suburbs of charlotte. It is competitive and worth watching to see the size of arecrats wave if they picking up seats. To the question about doorknocking, we know from social science that knocking on doors and in person contact is the most effective way to generate and boost turnout and to persuade people more so than virtual outreach. One of the things that weve noticed is that republicans have had a Voter Registration advantage sophia this year. If you take a look at the key states at the president ial level that track Voter Registration by party. Added a net 440 5000 additional voters to the rules in the past six months. Only 224,000. That gap was basically nonexistent four years ago. Because democrats have shifted to virtual outreach understandably in a pandemic, it has also cost them some of the traditional opportunities they might have had to engage their own supporters and particularly on college campuses. Thats where we are noticing a big downturn for democrats in new Voter Registration. There was a color earlier from champaign, illinois. There was a congressional race where colleges were counting on big turnout. The question is are democrats going to be able to motivate students who are not at full strength on these campuses to show up to the polls and vote for democrats in these districts as opposed to the suburbs where their parents houses are. Host tony is in st. Paul. Republican. Good morning. Caller i wanted to ask dave about the minnesota second election and what i anticipate will be a special election. State essentially disenfranchised people. The election is currently scheduled to continue. I want mr. Wasserman to speculate about what the special election might look like with full democratic washington control in february. Really unique situation. The democratic incumbent is angie craig and the republican challenger is a young marine veteran named tyler kistner. Would normally give a slight advantage to the democrats just because of the year and it is such a suburban seat that trump is unlikely to carry this time. Candidate, the legalize marijuana now nominee passed away at the age of 38 unexpectedly and under minnesota law if a candidate of a party who has received at least 5 of the vote in a recent statewide election which the Marijuana Party did a 2018 passes away, the election has to be canceled. The state ruled it should be held the following february. Appealed inmocrat federal court. She sued to reinstate the under the ideaon that the constitution guarantees an election for congressional seats in november. A federal court agreed with her. For now the election is back on. Thats one she should have an advantage in because if the election were to be pushed february, its possible that a backlash to a democratic sweep in november could aid the republican kistner. Democrats badly want to hold this election sooner rather than later. Host memphis, tennessee. Democrat. Caller my question is that it looks like with the inevitable confirmation of barrett to the Supreme Court its going to turn the court into a Political Branch of the government which was never supposed to be the basis of the Supreme Court. To be nonbiased and apolitical. My question is is there going to be any sort of recourse for this or anything that can be done . Because it seems to change the whole structure of the government the three branches. This may be a tradeoff where democrats end up winning the white house functionally losing any presence of a divided Supreme Court or swing vote. Its possible that a new justice, barrett, may not be quite as conservative on some of these landmark cases as republicans are expecting. We simply dont have a crystal ball into how the court decide some of these cases in 2021. But politics really is about tradeoff. The time at which we started noticing biden expand his lead in late september happened to coincide not with trumps hospitalization but with the Supreme Court vacancy. One of the issues that came back into the four amid this vacancy was health care. Particularly the future of the Affordable Care act and popular provisions like preexisting conditions. What democrats have been seeking to do at all levels is to tie republicans to Mitch Mcconnell and there is a group of voters that is important in the upper midwest, bluecollar women, many of whom supported donald trump in 2016 but are at least leaning prochoice on the issue of abortion, do not want to see roe v. Wade overturned, do not want to see the aca overturned. This has been an opportunity for democrats to drive a wedge in the coalitions. They remain more liberal on issues like abortion and samesex marriage. Host David Wasserman of Cook Political Report. Raceve been showing you ratings throughout this segment. How do you rate of race . Its a mix of art and science. Theres kind of a crossroads right now in political analysis between the quant people and the ones who have been doing more Qualitative Analysis for a number of years. My approach to analyzing elections is that if you are only looking at spreadsheets and the trends in the data but not talking to the ad makers and the pollsters and particularly the candidates, you are missing half the picture. If you are only in the world of candidate gossip and talking to their consultants and you are not looking at the data, you are also missing half the picture. So you have to know how to calibrate them. I think the most important indicator of how Congressional Election is going to turnout is what happened in the most recent election. Interview scores of candidates running for these seeds to try and hear their case as to why they are going to win. Doorffice is a revolving of democrats and republicans seeking to convince us that they are headed to washington. I have been doing more zoom meetings of late. Host daniel in san francisco. Independent. Caller good morning. After mr. Wasserman answers my question, i will have a followup question for him. In the states of washington and california we have a top two safery system such that in republican seats we will have two republicans in the general election and then save democratic seats will have two democrats in the general election. Werehere any such seats both candidates are from the same party that you are closely watching yet dont watching . There is a race for an open seat between Georgette Gomez and sarah jacobs, both of whom are democrats. Gomez has the proving vote getting track record from having served as the city council president. She is regarded as the more progressive candidate in the race but shes being vastly outspent by a candidate who is much younger than she is. Sarah jacobs is the granddaughter of the founder of qualcomm and has spent millions from her familys business empire, from her familys fortune to try and win a neighboring seat in 2018 that she lost in the primary. This time she is probably the narrow favorite in that contest. There are cases where we do see competitive races. Host quick followup. We are running out of time. With regards to those think what fact do you that is likely to have in future top twore one of the may be an independent . Rare that wetty see an independent entered the top two picture because they have a harder time gaining traction. Is a theory among some political scientists that having up two theories ends moderating because instead of a race to the extremes in a primary, there may be a lane for a more moderate member of either to a topget through two scenario and then be selected by the opposite parties voters if they are the more moderate candidate in november. I have seen that happen in a couple of cases like butingtons Fourth District we are Still Limited to only a handful of states that have these type of elections. The keystone state outside of lancaster. Democrat. Good morning. Caller im interested in your thoughts about two new jersey races. One is andy kim and the other is amy kennedy. Jersey. Is south republicans were hoping to mount a strong challenge to andy kim. These races are interrelated because when the Second District incumbent Jeff Van Drew switch from democrat to republican amid the impeachment hearings last convincedpresident the republican challenger to vander to shift to the Third District of it to the north. That has turned out to be a bust for the republicans because not only is richter being tagged as a wealthy carpetbagger and andy kim looks like he has the advantage to win a second term, but in the Second District, vander the Party Switcher might have been better off had he simply stated democrat. The democrats nominated amy kennedy who married into the kennedy family. She is a former teacher from atlanta county, the Population Center of the Second District. She has been able to raise millions of dollars because democrats want to avenge the party switch. So they are outspending fan drew. Story that some party switches take and some dont. Host jack is next. Republican. Roscommon, michigan. Go ahead. Caller back to the health care issue, when obama and biden was in office, they had forced all health care on all the Small Businesses to have people fulltime employees have health care. They laid off everybody, fired them. My kids were part of that. They didnt take care of the people that was employed for a long time. Now you think we want more of that . The other question is on the race between peters and james. Republicans are struggling in michigan at the moment. Caller is calling from is where donald trump is hoping to run up the score by arguing against democrats as the party of socialism. We have noticed republicans really break through with bluecollar voters in the callers part of the state. The question is can republicans hold on to votes in the suburbs and more populous parts of michigan and in the senate race we have seen a few close poles between gary peters and john james, the veteran who has strong support from the president. But the lions share of the undecided voters appear to be more democratic leaning voters. He would still have to give gary peters a narrow edge. Host paul in san antonio. Democrat. Good morning. Caller James Carville said he thought it would be an early night, that we would know the president ial Election Results early in the night. Does david agree . Mr. Have spoken with carville a number of times about this and he is very bullish on democrats chances of wrapping this up early. I will be watching a couple of counties in particular to get a sense of how the night is unfolding early on. In florida we are going to get a number of counties that report all of their early votes and mail votes at once. Particularatching in sumter county, florida, which is the villages. The president helicopter it into the villages just yesterday. We are looking at that county because it is a snapshot of how seniors are behaving in the median age in that county 68. 9 last year. It has 105,000 registered voters turnout is going to be somewhere north of 90 there. About 80 of their hoods typically are cast before election day. If we have 75,000 votes in and reported at seven 15 p. M. Election night i will be watching to see the margins. We know trump is going to carry it, but by how much . On route to9 winning florida by a point. He needs to win sumter to the one to win statewide in my opinion. If we see the first batch of results coming in and he is only i had 60 to 39 thats probably not good enough and that would confirm a catastrophic loss of support among seniors, a great revolt against trump. I would highly recommend you follow redistrict on twitter. You can keep up with him on Election Night. Will you be doing any of those calls on Election Night . Caller great question guest great question. I am under contract to work on the nbc news major decision desk. I will be handing out a guide on election day on how to interpret the results. That reelection we are quarantined at reelection we are quarantined and unable to disseminate our own views of what is going on, because we make projections as a team. We want to be sure that we are doing it right. Its important to point out that networks are rightfully very careful in how they make judgments on Election Night. When so much data is coming at you so fast i feel like it is impossible for any one person to have a firm handle on what is going on. It requires a team of statisticians and methodological rigor to get right. Host what time do you go dark on Election Night and when can you tweet again . Guest i will go dark around 5 00 p. M. And will come up for air around midnight or later. Host how many hours of sleep . Guest a lot of caffeine involved. I dont think i will go to bed on Election Night. Host chris from kendall park, new jersey. A republican, good morning. Caller good morning, i hope you are doing well. I had a question about bucks county in pennsylvania. I know it is done allegedly competitive race. Thatyou seen any numbers show this race is competitive . We have seen democraticcontrolled polls have you seen any recent president ial topline cx i know Hillary Clinton carried it. I wonder if you saw anything recently showing biden winning it. If biden wins by a lot will it be hard for the president to carry the state . I know statewide polls are showing the election tightening. Guest the caller knows his numbers. We have been looking at a lot of polling from the pennsylvania first district. Not all philadelphia suburbs are alike. There are parts of Lower Bucks County that are very bluecollar and our veteran communities for a lot of police and firefighters. There are parts of upper bux that are quite wealthy. Its a real mask mix. In philly suburbs as a whole biden is essentially considered by voters to be something of a hometown favorite from delaware and that has boosted him a district like this one. The polling we have seen suggests that biden is ahead somewhere around 10 points in this district. Bylary clinton only carried one. Thats a big improvement for the democratic ticket. The flipside is that the republican incumbent is also doing quite well relative to how he did in 2018 when he won by two points. Part of it is that the democrat has not been able to raise the same amount of money as other democratic challengers. Believe, is that this time around people can vote against trump at the top of the ticket and split their ticket down ballot and keep a republican they like. Brian fitzpatrick is a moderate. There are a number of biden voters who plan on voting for him. Kevin fromcall, galveston, texas. Independent, good morning. Caller i want to bring up that i think donald trump has done more than what anybody else does. Everybody does not realize that moreendence is intelligence and have more ideas than what nancy and all of them have. They have not put anything out there beside wanting more. I have been out of work for almost 30 years now, it is just the way they see it that they want to help the outsiders its like they are taking my life and giving it away as well as trying to put us all back together. Look, if you had to sum up this president ial election, it is that joe biden has done a masterful job of allowing his opponents campaign to selfdestruct. The president has not helped his own cause. We were waiting around labor day to see what the campaign was going to do to drive up the opponents negative and make this into more of a choice election than a referendum area typically with candidates in the past they had begun to intensify their negative ads and we begin to see their opponents negatives go up. We have seen joe bidens favorability increase in the final phase of this campaign. Left, buttill a week trump is pretty far from where he needs to be to have a chance in this election, and its hurting republicans. Host dave wassermans house editor at the Cook Political Reports. You can find inspired by conversations with noted historians about leadership skills. As americans go to the polls next month to decide who leads our country, it offers perspective into the events that forge each president s leadership style. To learn more about all of our andidents, visit cspan. Org order your copy today wherever books are sold. You are watching cspan. Your unfiltered view of government. Treated by americas Cable Television companies as a Public Service and got to you today by your television provider. Tuesday, a threejudge panel a second time. The case was first heard in 2019 and made it