Transcripts For CSPAN Campaign 2020 Bipartisan Policy Center Discussion On Demographic Changes... 20240712

Studies at the bipartisan policy center. Of change our states event, an event we have been doing for 40 years that even goes back a couple of years beyond that. Partneredchange is a effort with the center for american progress, the Brookings Institution, and the Voter Study Group of the Democracy Fund, and also, i want to mention the participation of the American Enterprise and said to. American enterprise institute. That group has been collecting election information, combined with demographic information, thinking about the future of our elections. Each year, we have new data, a new report. Says,nk, as the name about the state, not only our country, but how the states are changing over time. We also have different scenarios as to what might happen. In one way, change Voter Preferences in another. Just like every year, we have an interesting new report. We will hear from the authors of that and walk through that. We also have a particular theme this year we are emphasizing generational change. We have now seen jens he enter z entertorate gen the electorate. All of our generations are moving through the electorate. Addressess report that aspect, how things are changing, how they might change, and some of the scenarios, whether voter change their attitudes when the age into different parts of life. They age into different parts of life. We are going to have a presentation of the report. The coauthors of the report are all are three of our important partners. I will mention first someone who is not able to join us because of some technical difficulties this morning, ruby has been with ruy hasthe beginning been with us from the beginning as a senior fellow for the center for american progress. Ruy, where star you cant join us today. We will be talking about your work and look forward to joining you next years report. The other coauthors with us will walk through some of the key findings of that report. Robert griffin. A Research Director of the Democracy Fund Voter Study Group. And bill frey. A senior fellow at the Brookings Institution metropolitan policy program. He spent a number of years working on those issues at the university of michigan. He also has a new book, which you can get. I am going to shortly turn it over. Let me also tell you about the second part of the program briefly. Robre going to, with rob, and i are going to have a discussion with two excellent with Kristen Soltis anderson and tara mcgowan. To you forward submitting questions to the program and speaking with you then. Rob . Robert good morning, everyone. I am here to do introduction work, along with john, to lay the land for everything. As john mentioned, this is our sixth year doing this report. Those of you who have been with us for a long time, thanks for being here. Its nice to see you, even if remotely. For those who are kind of new to the project, i thought it might give you some tips about what we are doing. I think there are essentially two things that are really important to take away. Is that what we are all about is trying to understand the potential impact of demographic change. There have been changes that have been happening to the country, both in terms of racial diversity, educational status, how old it is, the age of those, the electorate, that have been pretty dramatic over the last 40 years. We expect these changes to continue to happen. What we are trying to do is get a handle on the picture of what the future might look like, or various futures could look like. And the second thing that i think is important to take away is that we are not predicting the future. We actually dont like that word here. We like to say the word simulating the future. Let major raw line between those two concepts for you. Let major raw a line between those two concepts for you. When people are predicting the future, they are walking away with, this is what the authors think, this is what they are sure is going to happen. We are really never in the situation. We are not sure about one of the various things we are talking about that are definitely going to happen. What we are interested in doing is taking some of the popular narratives, the popular ideas about various demographic had generational change might change the future, and simulating it out. How generational change might change the future, and simulating it out. Simulating the future, not predicting it. Giving people the contours of the future, what it could look like, rather than telling people , this is exactly what its going to be. With that in mind, lets start diving in with a story you might already know. This is something we covered for the last year. Especially just am a graphic change, how is the country changing demographically . , there are three big things that are happening. Two of them are that the country is becoming has been becoming more racially diverse, and its becoming more educated. And how that plays out over the we are years is that going to see a decline in the number of eligible voters, so those who were 18 and older and citizens of the u. S. , who are white, noncollege, they are going to go from 46 in 2016, we to be 40 of eligible voters today, than by 2036, down to 34 . This is a really big change. Shift for adramatic group that has dominated american politics for a really long time but is in demographic decline. Are locked in among latino and hispanic americans, as well as asian and blown into other racial and ethnic groups. But these groups are going to continue to grow over time. White noncollege and African Americans these groups are relatively speaking, demographically stable. Thexpect them to make up same amount of eligible voters over time Going Forward into the future. It doesnt mean they are not growing. It does not mean they are changing in size or anything like that. It means everybody else is growing, too, at the same time. These groups are staying somewhat stable. As we look at the statebystate, one of the really important things to understand is how different some of these changes are in different parts of the country. What you are looking at on this slide is all 50 states. You are looking at the percent of people in that state among eligible voters who are people of color. The black, latino, and hispanic people, asian, those longing to other racial ethnic groups. What you can see is two things, one, the level of racial diversity in all 50 states actually varies considerably. Theres a lot of differences between states. They are all moving in the same direction. Over the next 16 years, we expect just about every state to , asme more racially diverse a result of demographic changes that are happening in the country. In some places, thats going to be bigger, in sum, smaller. Some places are starting off with high diversity already, and others are catching up, they are much lower on the bar here, but everyone is changing together. This is sort of important. Keep this figure in mind once we look at generational change. There are some interesting differences. One of the things we are seeing is each of these things become more diverse and slowly over time, more and more are going to be passing the 50 mark, such that they become minority majority states, as people sometimes call them. The other thing that is happening to the country, just a finish of, just to finish off, is the age distribution of the country is getting older. There are more americans were sickly five years old and over, who are just going to be who are 65 years old and over, or just going to be [indiscernible] overtime. More people are making it to 65 years old. They are living a little bit longer after that. You also have a big generational bubble that is the baby boomers, moving into the 65 category. The people occupying that space should be increasing over time. It has been happening for some time now. Those of the stories you might be more familiar with. It is something we covered in the past by viewers, relatively well discussed. Something that people talk about less, sometimes, is what generational change might look like. People have a big sense about, some generations are increasing in size, some are declining, but they also dont have a good picture of what that looks like in their head. Lets start off with some definitions here. Starting with the oldest generation, the generation one before 1945, baby boomers, born to 1964. Have been one of the largest generations for a number of decades now. Millennials, then what we are calling for this report gen z plus. Theres no generation that comes after that has been decided yet. For the purpose of this report, whatever you see whenever you hear us talking about gen z, were talking about everyone one after 1997. This represents the earliest and newest and coming generation that is coming into the fore. Essentially, why we are focusing on generations here there are two big things that are important to observer about this. The first is that each generation has really Strong Political differences between them, and we expect these differences to be kind of kind of sticky. These are the margins for each generation in the 2016 election. As you can see, you have the baby boomers and silent generation being notably conservative. The value you are looking at on lean of ais is the particular generation. This is sort of the difference between the two. Youve got baby boomers leading toward the public and party toward the Republican Party, z being morerough democratic leaning. Z being through gen more democratic leaning. There are just the differences between them. The second piece of the puzzle, we expect them to be sticky. What we mean by that is the generational means, the political affiliations people have, we expect them overtime to stay with these generations. Does that mean they cannot shift their vote from election to election . No. People can shift their vote. We are seeing that in 2020. Does that mean that events cannot sort of shifted these peoples vote around . No. Does it mean people will not grow more conservative as they aged . Age . No. But some of these characteristics might stick around a little bit. We might think about them as change relative to the starting places. Andcially for gen z millennials, notably democratic, notably liberal. The other reason we focus on generations this year, we think there is something of a turning point when it comes to sort of a generational story. What youre looking at here is, if you add up the percentage of eligible voters who are gen z and millennial and you chart it going into the future, and if you add up the number of eligible voters of the silent generation and track over time, that is that blue line. In 2020, we are just at the Tipping Point of those two generations crisscrossing. That is to say that just about this year, the number of eligible voters who belong to gen z and the millennial generation is as much as the boomer and silent generation. Silent voters. So what we are doing this graph is taking that 2016 turnout rates that happen for racial and educational and age groups and were applying those forward to these groups and Going Forward in the future. Now, is this what is going to happen precisely . Baselinet is a decent for thinking about the future, what might occur Going Forward in the future. And if these groups show up at the same rates they did in 2016 were looking at just the very connection being the one thats sort of the Tipping Point between these two between these groups of generations um being sort of the dominant group within american politics. Again, with gen z and millennials just in 2024 were just one election away from being the exact same size as boomer and silent generation now again. Think back to that other chart i showed you before. This is the same type of chart and again so this is all 50 states plus the United States in red. What im showing you is the percent of the population of eligible voters in each state thats gen z and millennial so in contrast to racial change in the states which as you saw in that other figure can be high it can be low. Theres a lot of diversity between states. Theres actually far less diversity between states and the growth patterns are also much more similar between the states. Theres some variations some states being a little bit older. Maine and West Virginia and florida older. And you have some states or districts like the district of columbia which are notably younger but by and large these are actually pretty similar across states and the rates of change Going Forward into the future are pretty similar and so i think the big takeaway here is that you know to the extent that we think about racial change in the states being important, it is caveated by the fact that its really its not occurring in every state. There are just some places that are far less racially diverse. Generational change is a wave that crashes on every shore its a change thats coming to every state in the country. To the extent that we study these things we think theyre important. It is notable to know that this is happening everywhere. Again these are not predictions , about exactly what the future is going to be. These are a discussion of various narratives theyre us putting numbers behind some of the concepts that people have about the future so we can start to chart out okay lets take this idea seriously. What does that look like. Its take some of what people are saying about what they think about the future that might happen to millennials or gen z and putting numbers behind its we can understand what might be the contours of the future. Again, not predicting it. I will walk quickly through those four generations sorry the forcing relations peers first, the no generational effects simulation. Is happening is assuming there are no generational effects. It is a nice baseline for thinking about okay what does the world look like if we dont take generational effects into account. So we assume essentially that lets take the 2016 turnout , rates and support rates for these race, age groups on a statebystate basis and lets assume a stay constant Going Forward into the future so the only think that is changing as geographic composition of the states themselves. Again, roy moore racially diverse, getting more educated, becoming older. So this is sort of a baseline to think about um the some of these generational models how it compares to them once we start taking generations into account. The second model does take those generational effects into account. It says as i thought extrema, what if generations continue to vote exactly as they did going into the future . The boomer generation will vote as it did. Millennials will but as it did and gen z will vote as it did in 2016. We are going to assume stability in generational preferences Going Forward into the future. Again, is this absolutely the truth and what is going to happen . No, probably not. But it is a thought experiment about what if we take these generational cohort partisan leaning and think that they might extend forward into the future. The third simulation is that general generational effects decline with age. Thatwe assume is generations as people hypothesize become more , conservative as the agent. So were going to essentially assume here that all of these generations are going to continue to become more conservative and lean more republican going for into the future. So we start off with their 2016 support rates right so how they voted in the 2016 election and then cycle over cycle theyre just going to become a little more conservative as they age into the electorate. We have the fourth scenario which is essentially what if generations stay the same but what if theyre supposed millennial generation that becomes more conservative. Because even right now gen z is in the electorate but it is not that large and we do not know anything about necessarily everything in the world about these people who are under 18, who belong to that generation. Still some people have hypothesized that this generation might come in more conservative at some point so we again explore this with this fourth scenario. I will talk through these through a series of charts. That chart on the left youre looking at the democratic popular vote margin. This is the percent of the vote at a National Level that is going to Democratic Candidates, under the assumptions of these various simulations. So, positive values there. Above the zero line, wins for are the Democratic Party and the popular vote. Values below that red zero line are wins for the Republican Party. And on the right graph are the number of Democratic Electoral atlege votes, the redline 278. So, given a democratic win it would be above that line Going Forward into the future and below that line would be a republican when in that year and simulation. Very first scenario we play out is again this note generational effect simulation. And compared to 2016 what we see is that the democratic margin is even larger than it was in 2016 on the basis of just demographic change. Again, the country is becoming more racially diverse, it is becoming more educated and it is becoming older. Even in 2020 we would expect the vote margin to go up for a democratic candidate given these demographic changes. So at a popular vote again Hillary Clinton won by about two points uh we have a democratic candidate here coming in just below five, around four points during among the Electoral College what we would actually see is if we played this out in the states that is to say if we take all these democratic demographic changes and we play them out state by state it would actually result in an Electoral College type. So if we were in a world where nothing was changing about peoples voter behaviors just , the demographics that were happening in the future, we would expect even that to move the Electoral College to a 269 to 269 scenario a tie essentially in the Electoral College on the basis of that demographic change alone. Demographic changes continue to kick can as a for. And cycle over cycle gets that for republicans and all of these states, it starts adding up to a larger and larger democratic chair, even under the assumption that nobody really changes their voting behavior, that all of these demographic groups essentially about the same. Our next simulation and this is sort of a High Water Mark for the Democratic Party is what happens if there are generational effects. So what happens if millennials , do continue to vote like lail did in 2016 . What happens if gen z does vote as it did in 2016 . At the same for the other generations . What we see is that there is a marked improvement in the democratic vote share for for the Democratic Party that theyre winning by even more that if you start to incorporate any of these ideas about Generations Holding on to their various political preferences were actually just seeing the Democratic Party uh start to gain more and more vote share over time going up to 2036 this starts to top out close to over 400 point win in the electoral clash so it starts to look like a blowout within just a couple of election cycles if nothing changed about these generations and again this is not a prediction saying this is exactly whats going to happen. But if you do take the idea of generations seriously and if you thought the idea that generations are just going to stay the same as they age this is what it would look like. One of the features driving this under the hood thats worth noticing again this is this that vote margin that democratic versus republican vote margin um on the yaxis and then for each of the age categories here ive plotted essentially how their vote margin is changing over time as a result of in either this agebased simulation which again was that first simulation or the generation simulation which is that second simulation. Happeningason this is within the generationbased simulation, is that there is a rapid page at which the older age groups, the 4564, those 3044, becoming part democratic as more gen z and millennials start to populate those age groups. The only group that does not change much is those 65 and up again these are looking at how different generations can age into the electorate and they are making these different age groups much more democratic leaning over time compared to a model where we just assumed that the racial and educational composition of these groups shifts over time. Our third simulation right here in orange is that these generations become more conservative as they age so again were taking into account these generational effects but we are also allowing for the idea that they become more conservative as they age. So this is threading the needle between those two first simulations. Agebasedst the simulation which assumes demographic change is going to s voting nobody behavior changes. This is more democratic leaning than that but less democratic leaning uh than a scenario where just a full bore you know gen z and millennials are continuing unchanged into the future. So in the popular vote margin again this looks like its threading the needle between the two but in the Electoral College this is actually much closer to looking like a full generational effect model than it is an agebased model. That even trying to account for some of these changes over time as people potentially become more conservative as they age it really doesnt make as big of a difference in the Electoral College once we try to simulate this out. It is something that threads the needle between the two but does not have nearly the size of a fact some people might imagine. Then we have the fourth scenario. This is the scenario where postmillennial generations come and more conservative than they are right now. So we are essentially assuming is the part not in the electorate yet, get to come, is more conservative generally than the millennial generation, that we take them at their baseline but assume there is a big shift toward making the more conservative again, this kind of splits the difference between our full generational model and an art note generational model. It does not look that different in terms of popular vote from that generations get more conservative as the age denial. But in the Electoral College it does start to play out just slightly differently particularly and 2028. These look pretty similar in 2020 and 2024 but theres a divergence between those orange and green lines on that right side of the chart once we get out to 2028. But as we move forward into the futures these differences again disappear as we think about the Electoral College. To sum up a lot of these models are telling us may be generational change will not be as powerful as we think it is. That even trying to account for these it is hard to imagine that the simulations, the scenarios it is really not enough to push the ball toward the republican all that much. Both demographic change and these generational models are sort of winds blowing in the same direction and creating a headwind for the Republican Party and advantages for the Democratic Party as we go forward into the future. Toh that, i will headed over bill fry who will give us the story the states. Bill thank you very much, rob. A shout out to those here with us in spirit. Im going to talk about the story in the states. Chartsng to translate rob talked about into situations for states involved in the changing electoral vote composition over time. This jigsaw puzzle of states that move in Different Directions as a result of arts relations over time. What they want to say right off the bat and emphasize what rob talked about, is that our projections assume that younger people who are more racially diverse and more educated as they grow older, the rest of the population becomes more racially diverse and more educated. But another piece of our story is that states also change in their demographic makeup over time. That case we start out with states that are very racially diverse, but over time that moves to different parts of the country and the ones who are racially diverse now become more racially diverse. For example, nationally a third , of eligible voters in 2020 are people of color. Air 2036 and 41 of eligible voters are people of color. 2038 inona in 2020 38 of people are color and that was to 48 in 2036. In texas echoes from 50 in 2020 260 in so you see different 2036. States move in Different Directions and even as rob showed in that first chart there even largely white states are uh becoming more diverse over time. Projectionsnto our and our projections are fairly sophisticated if we have to pat ourselves on the back a little. We do a cohort component methodology showing how different generations age over time and we add in survival rates former tally. We add in birth rates and then also people who become citizens age 18 and over and then immigration as well. Is a piece of it. In addition we make projections at the state level in addition immigratione have parceled out to the difference projected over time. And also migration flows from each state to the rest of the country. Again these by age and race and education attributes. Profileis a fairly high , highly technical demographic projection on which we then talk about different preferences. So the same to underlying demographic shifts over time by states and age. Siu want to see how people vote. I want to talk first about 11 states and we see the kind of swing states that move from red to blue under different models. Michigan,vania, wisconsin, rust belt. In the south, North Carolina, georgia, florida. And arizona in the west. And we added in iowa, texas and ohio, and alaska. Who knew, alaska in there as the democrats actually do uh pick off two states, michigan and pennsylvania, two of those big three midwestern seats. When you translate that into Electoral College votes that splits down the middle. Instead of republicans winning as they did in 2016, by 306 to 232 in 20 in 2020 according to this particular simulation its tied, 269269. Goes into the house of representatives to figure out whats going on there. Now we the demography ahead to 2024 we now move wisconsin and florida into the democratic column. With the same demography, but by then, different voting with the same demographic with the demography changing in the same voting preferences we now have the democrats picking up 306 electoral votes the same number of electoral votes that republicans had in 2016. The only thing thats changed is the underlying demography, not voting preferences. And as we move further into 2028 we see georgia and North Carolina going into the democratic column, and in 2032 we have arizona moving into the democratic column. And by 2036, you know, seven of our 11 states have moved from the total republican column in 2016 up to the democratic column in 2036. And as i said, this does not make any assumptions about having generations follow their preferences over time. This is just simply a baseline model that shows if demography keeps winding on the way it is and the voting preferences stay the way they were in 2016 the democrats come out ahead in pretty big numbers. Lets go to the next slide. This slide takes in the full generational effects. This is like the other extreme. Here, as rob mentioned, we make the assumption that all the generational voting patterns in 2016 stay with those generations at the age over time, especially those strong democratic preferences for millennials and gen zers. And that moves ahead into states that are very diverse especially their young people are very diverse and that has a big impact on whats going on so if you look at 2020 here you not only have michigan and pennsylvania moving into the demographic democratic column, but also wisconsin and florida and arizona. In that first model that we just looked at arizona doesnt get into the democratic democratic column until 2032, but here in 2020, according to this model, this model would say if this all held up at two weeks from tomorrow wed have five states here, michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, florida, and arizona, moving in the democratic column. Then at 2024, we add georgia and North Carolina, and then in 2028 nine of the 11 states, including texas just eight years from now, nine of the 11 states will be in the democratic column, and by 2036 we have all them in there, including alaska. So this is what happens when we full generational forward model with all these young people retaining their preferences Going Forward. Lets move to the next slide. The next slide is generational effects decline with age. People become somewhat more conservative as they age. Again, we start in 2016 with all these states voting republican and in 2020 its not quite as strongly democrat as in the full generation model. But we still have michigan, pennsylvania, wisconsin, and florida, enough to give the democrats a healthy win. And by 2024, we add arizona into that, as well as North Carolina, and continue to move in that direction. Even at 2036, alaska still stays in the republican column. In 2032, iowa and alaska stay in the republican column. But still, even this generational model with some conservative movement as people age shows a strong democratic result in in all of these elections. Lets go to another model in the next slide. This is a slide that says postmillennial generations become more conservative. This is the idea is well you cant stay this liberal, i mean maybe the next generation is going to be a little bit more conservative, the gen z and the people beyond gen z. But their impacts are going to more delayed. We will not see them right away and in 2020 we have the same result with this model as we did with the previous model although the democrats still come out ahead in 2024. Once again, arizona, North Carolina, joined the ranks of the democrats, and then in 2020 still more states come along. It is more lagged for some states. Texas only joins the democratic column in 2032 according to this model, rather than in 2028 according to the previous models. But it still becomes very democratically oriented with between 308tting electoral votes in 2020 to 408 electoral votes in 2036 because theyre able to capture the lions share of the states. So what does this all mean . You look at this and say, gee, the 2020 election according to any of these models, will either be split between republican and democratic seats if theres no generational effects, but for any of the generational effects kick in, even between 2016 and 2020, those generational effects could generate several more states for the democrats. And then if you move ahead to several president ial elections, especially the 2028 when when a good share of those states move into with the democratic column, you see that this is kind of an important impact and a windfall, really, for the Democratic Party. So you can look at it this way. But as rob says, these are arelations, they projections not predictions. They are based on assumptions we make about all kinds of things and certainly cannot necessarily be what we are going to find out. There are lots of other things getting into the picture. But i would say, again, we have a very sophisticated demographic model in the sense that not only do we take in actual voting patterns for which we make sort of assumptions about how they change, but we tie them to the real demographic structure of the country in terms of a cohort component model that takes into race, race, education, immigration, and migration across states over time. It is something we want to thank our funders for giving us the resources to be able to do this. Because i think it gives a very clear picture of where we can go in the future. You know, there are a lot of people who will save these generational models may not work and of course they are assumptions. They might say you know, there are baby boomers who were voting for George Mcgovern in 1972 and then later became reagan democrats and later became republicans after that, and its certainly true there may be changes over time in all of this, but i would say, as rob mentioned, these Younger Generations are very distinct demographically. We already have more than 40 of millennials and gen zers who are 20 ofof color and about those are latinos. A much bigger share of all of those groups have College Educations and of whites have College Educations than they did in the past. So, fundamentally, that demographic structure is quite different than a lot of the generations that are older and that have been you know sort of accounting for our demographic results and our political results in the last couple of elections. So i would not go out and then a lot of money on the Democratic Party winning all of these elections in the future necessarily, but i would say that both parties need to Pay Attention to these Younger Generations, to Pay Attention to their issues and how they vote. And if things stayed the same as they are now then it would be difficult for the republicans to take over, but i think both parties are interested in getting as many voters as they can and will Pay Attention to this underlying demographic structure. Demography does not determine destiny, but it certainly shapes it in a big way. So with that, lets go to the panel. John thank you, bill. We will transition to the second panel. And again, ruy teixeira, we are missing you because of technology issues, but rob griffin is going to join me in moderating the second session. Let me remind you also that as this panel goes forward were gonna want to hear from you, your questions. Submit your questions on youtube through the chat function on twitter. So i look for to your questions. Typically we have panelists of people who comment on our work both from the republican side , and from the democratic side. And we really do like to have people who know the real world of politics, but are very familiar with the data and are able to think about this in an analytic way. Imagine two panelists more like that than that to panelists we have today. Kristen Soltis Anderson is the cofounder and partner at sln insights. It is a firm that works more on the republican side and polling and Data Analytics, and a fox contributor as well as the host of what are the odds. I used to cohost the pollsters, a great podcast. And for this panel of interest, the author of a book, the selfie vote, in 2015. An interested to talk to kristin about that book and how things have changed. Also with us, tara mcgowan, who is the founder and ceo of acronym, a firm works more on the Progressive Side in politics with candidates and groups and again with Data Analytics and polling as well. She previously held several positions including the director of Digital Strategy at priorities usa action. Let me begin. Ill turn to you kristin, i mentioned your book, the selfie vote that is 2015, maybe almost a generation ago. What has changed in that time and also what you saw in the presentation that struck you from your work and the field . Iistin i was delighted as was reading through the report and saw in the introduction a number of things and i thought, ive been preaching this for years and someone is saying it, im so excited. A decade ago i got into studying the topic of Younger Voters. As someone who is younger and right of center, i was both enthusiastic and excited to see so many people in my generation getting engaged in politics during obamas presidency, but was also concerned because so many of my peers who had previously not been interested in politics at all were now going, well kristin how can you , be a republican . You seem so nice and normal. This caused me to be a little concerned about what is going on that is making semi people in my generation so turned off from the gop. Maybe this is normal. You know as was noted many people believe that when you are young you are progressive and as you become older, so maybe this is normal, maybe i am the weird one. So i began doing research and by the time i got to 2015 and the selfie vote came out i had really done a lot of data that suggested no, it is not always the case that Younger Voters are significant more progressive than their grandparents. We have had a number of elections in recent decades, as recently as the year 2000, george bush versus al gore, theres almost no generational divide in that election. So its not always the case that there are big generational cleavages in our politics. This from my view was needed to send up alarms for republicans, this idea that all of these millennials were going to get older and they were going to get married and buy homes and pay taxes and suddenly become republicans just didnt seem backed up by the data for me. So when i wrote the selfie vote , the selfie vote basically makes the case that republicans need to focus more on young people, focus more on how they talk about issues like immigration, having borders, climate. They are going to have voters with different positions on lgbt issues. Those are the sorts of things i raised in the selfie vote, but interestingly theres one word that does not appear in the selfie vote. That is the word trump. My book came out in 2015 sort of just before the trump phenomenon in the republican primary began. What was interesting is at the time the selfie vote came out, republicans seemed receptive to this message they need to focus on young voters, that they might be doomed over a long enough time horizon if they dont. And then trump won, and when youre victorious you tend to go wait a minute maybe we got some thing right, and the people who are saying we were doomed were wrong. So the argument that republicans needed to focus more on young voters of fell out of fashion or trump gaining enthusiasm from a select group of College Conservatives who are good at using memes has convinced republican strategists look, even trump is good with young voters, but the data does not bear that out. So i was glad to see this report come together. It, for me, reaffirms all the things i was thinking where the case in 2015, have not changed, even as a result of republicans winning the white house in 2016. There were a couple things that stick out to me. States, joe biden is doing well with senior citizens. There are some limits to this for candidate quality and message and the issue of environment play a huge role. I become more humble about what we know about the longterm given those factors. The other thing that strikes me is a situation where one party does not draw in while another gets pushed away. You can see gen z and millennials as more of a crucial voting block in the Democratic Party and that leads to a corresponding backlash for some that for some folks might be voting for joe biden would be less interested in voting for a democratic nominee. Those are my two nitpicks that the candidates matter and Party Coalitions are always changing that inhibits our ability to know longterm. I still think there are a ton of sirens in this report that republicans need to listen to to further emphasize why it matters to reach out to young voters today and their ability to win elections tomorrow. Tara, when we do these reports, we usually have many scenarios. We try to do a range of them showing where republicans might do better or democrats might do better. I felt this report is a the most pessimistic for republicans thinking about the generations and how much they have moved left of center, the Younger Generation and how they move through the electorate. Your thoughts generally about how you see that from a more Progressive Side but also may be some counter thoughts of things that keep you up at night, the things you see in voters moving that there is evidence that as they age or have life events that perhaps they move away from some of those preheld views, what are your thoughts about that and whats on your mind . Thanks for having me and thanks to everybody who put this report together. Because idifficult worked closely on the 2020 election and this has been a refreshing exercise to look at the trends and really take a step back from this really unique unprecedented election where i think we will see a lot of shifts in terms of the electorate and the boat. And is in terms of turnout the Party Affiliations in terms of who they vote for in the president ial election. When looking at this report and the data, i agree with kristen on many of her points. Raises this extraordinary alarm bells for the republicans that were raised and acknowledged after the 2012 election when president obama beat mitt romney in that election where it felt like a lot of reflection in the Republican Party around the fact that they needed to make more inroads and do more outreach to Younger Generations as well as more diverse coalitions of voters and less white voters, frankly, across the country. That i thinkhing the party intended to do until trump became the nominee in the 2016 election and has really shifted the party further to the right through the course of this administration. Whats really interesting is that we are already seeing these changes play out right now. These simulations point two in the respective of where voters are when it comes to the issues and also their affiliation with parties. Accounts not take into a shift within the party themselves. Of course, we are seeing that happen within both parties separate from this election. There are movements farther to the left within the Democratic Coalition and as trump as shown, parties so both parties moving forward in the future really understand where these younger coalitions of voters are and how their generations are behaving in terms of their politics and their behavior when it comes to voting. I think we will see in a norma shift in terms of recordbreaking turnout among Younger Voters. This will ultimately shift the electorate because the younger you are when you first vote or register to vote, the more likely you are to vote for the rest of your life in president ial or other elections. That will also have an impact. Thenk generational data from this report is really important. You know, our generationi am a millennial, and the generations beneath us are getting married later in life they are getting married at all. There starting the relationship to the job force and the economy it is very different. We have been through sessions. We are going to go through another one it seems. So our relationship to the economy and government and institutions is also different. That is an important piece to piece, too. Mportant i believe younger coalitions are going to shift parties increasingly. Our understanding of politics and how these parties respond. They do not want to see they want to see solutions. They do not want your fights around whether Climate Change is real or not. Younger generations believe the signs. That it is and they want to see action on it. They also have additional relationship to social issues. And relationships and understanding of their expenses different, and the colors that colors their politics. What has been disheartening to see with trump at the head of the Republican Party and their Publican Party around trump they seeism is that the forest through the trees here in terms of coalitions. In the electorate instead has doubled down. On issues like voter suppression. And deterrence of nonwhite voters. And Younger Voters. As opposed to figure out ways to reach out to them and embrace them and represent where these coalitions are politically. I think that is something that is not sustainable for the Republican Party if they ever want to be in power again. The on the selection. So ive asked rob. Rob about have asked this and im so but that it that generations get more conservative as they get older. Can you talk about what commands might look like to that sort of assumption . Things, we have generations more racially diverse. Conservativere when the age phenomena does not translate to Younger Generations giving racial diversity. Theyre also more educated so it perhaps does not translate because of that. Theres another piece of the puzzle, what tara is mentioning. We have generations that because of changes in society, because of two economic sessions, may have landmarks of adulthood delayed or maybe they do not happen at all. Those are childbearing and homeownership which people often think about conservatizing types of behaviors. Just kind of kind of thinking through, again, being so pathetic for my end that these things occur or could occur. The other edge of the sword there, how are the ways this might just not apply to these generations. It is ingrained in conservative circles in part because the experience of the baby boomers was to be progressive as they were against ever hippie days and posting vietnam got older and they went through the reagan and clinton eras and they came out the other side being a bit more conservative and theres this assumption that it happened to me, so it is probably happening to these Younger Generations. And i think we have enough data at this point that shows at least for the millennials that this idea that theyre going to get more conservative as they age just hasnt been panning out. You can look at that very first , the way the oldest voted in the 2006 midterm its the first midterm millennials really had a role in um and in that midterm they broke for Democratic Candidates by huge margins. It was bigger than any single age group had broken for any particular party going back i think through any exit poll finding i could find going back through decades. Yet when we look at the 2018 midterms millennials are now no longer 18 to 24 year olds they are now for 30 year olds and they were voting the same way that they did in 2006 breaking enormously for Democratic Candidates. Now these things are not static. There have been elections in the intervening 14 years where there have been moments where millennials were a little more evenly divided but i just think at this point you cant say you know a lot of people are relying on this idea that millennials are all the kids that is graduated from college yesterday. And it is no, millennials are now about to begin having 40th birthday parties. They are not children anymore. Are not close. That we still see pretty deeply progressive use. One thing that gives me pause is i wonder if, for millennials, we wind up with our political views still being somewhat centrist. I did a report recently for the Walton Family foundation about gen z and millennials and their views of things like the American Dream. We actually found a pretty good amount of optimism that twothirds of millennials and gen zers feel they can access the American Dream that number was even across racial and ethnic lines. So the idea that if there is still this optimism if republicans can come around to embracing a more optimistic view a more future looking view that that might put them more in sync with where young people are and you could see them moving to the right but that would be because of a shift in the party less so than a shift in the voters themselves. So you have to disentangle those two things. In the walton product we asked millennials and gen zers to describe their generations in a word or two and for millennials it tended to be things like adaptive, practical. Pragmatic. That we faced a lot when we grew up in the shadow of 9 11, the financial crisis, you name it. Have experienced it and we have had to adapt and be resilient as a generation. Where d c, there no, not here to adapt, we are here to raise our voices and make change and demand the world we want to see. That also may foster more argumentative and combative politics. It may also make more space for folks further out on the ideological edges and that could include conservatives. The idea that you can have a pocket within gen z that is quite conservative, more conservative than you find even among republican millennials is something im open to the possibility of. Though i think in the end is not counteracted these broader wins wins eeing broader winds we are seeing. Also think the definition of what republican and democrat are but what progressive and conservative mean also change um and so it is possible you know that there are things that if i consider myself conservative there are things that i believe and hold true that would have horrified someone who considered themselves conservative in 1999. That word means Something Different to me than it might have meant to someone at the beginning of reagans presidency and so these terms are also changing which i think is important to keep in mind. So in the the 20042006 range we started to see big differences in the way that younger people voted much more progressive. Some of that obviously can be explained as demographics a more diverse generation but that did not happen overnight. Thats that happened over time. There wass that that a moment or several moments that change the generations. People talk about the war, the iraq war or the financial crisis and that is later. There was 9 11 of course. And then it seems to be lasting since the generation since seem to be more progressive. Tara sure i was 15 years old during that and that shaped and colored our experience as a politics. And the role of governments and the economic recessions and our Foreign Relations and relationships. The recession impacted our abilities to get jobs and enter the workforce later and that lays Everything Else like buying a home and that matters. I also think we are living during a time of disruption in terms of technology and the environment. Beyond just our politics. That is something Younger Generations are experiencing the impacts of, not just hearing theoretically what these events could look like and how government should approach them. Theyre happening in real time. I find millennials and gen z voters in particular have less patience or tolerance for the partisan fighting over issues and matters of science like Climate Change. Generations have grown up with Mass Shootings in their schools. Their relationship to violence and gun violence, and gun reform. And also seeing as we have seen with the movement of march for our lives after the shootings in florida, thatand, they were fed up. The majority of americans wanted to see action on gun control and nonviolence in this country. Yet it was blocked by our government and by a republican majority in the senate. Increasing also an understanding by Younger Generations that politics matter. Who you elect matters and how you hold elected officials accountable once theyre in office matters. And because of the gridlock that our generation and Younger Generations have seen in our federal government, and congress and the senate, theres also increased energy to change that. Yet the risk on the other cited that is, the increasing mistrust in our institutions or in our , government or elected officials to be able to actually represent the electorate. I think that will um will also influence this other topic weve about, how parties adapt and change to meet voters with ar. Especially as the become younger and more diverse. As the electorate ages i think that is going to be the test for both parties. Had a not just get elected but to meaningful represent meaningfully represent the demands and the will of the majority of voters especially as they lean more progressive. And if those voters do not see their elected officials actually advance meaningful progress and change, there could be a backlash. Whether that is divisions within their own party, the creation of other parties, or movements to a different party, i believe this is really tenuous and it ecosystem that is important, for the Democratic Party in particular doubled down. To make sure they dont take entities voting blocs for granted. Whether those are black voters latinx voters or Younger Voters ,. Because they have reliably voted democratic and really need to show up and actually achieve the progress these voters are looking for. And to do it to hold the advantage that we are talking about. Have a lasto you question before we move to the audience . You have bothnd spoken to it a little bit. If you had to, given what you know about the values resting underneath some of the voting choices we see among these what does a political entrepreneur, a politician who holds onto these voters look like . For a future republican candidate . And a future democratic candidate . Kristen for a future republican candidate i have been intrigued about what i jokingly call like arthur brooksism which is almost like compassionate conservatism 2. 0 but with critical differences. This also answers johns previous question which was what was the thing that caused this big generational break to happen . You had three things happen in rapid succession. The wars interact and afghanistan going very south very publicly, very quickly. You had president obama is a powerful political figure and ultimately president , and you had the financial crisis of 20072008. These crises have left millennials less interested in projecting American Military might which was a big piece of the republican puzzle until that point. And a skepticism of the idea that free markets are good. And that government and Big Government are here the bad. One of the numbers that is most eyeopening as i was beginning my research, was that Pew Research Center has asked for a long time do you believe that government tends to be inefficient and wasteful or do you believe that government is good at solving problems . Basically a barometer of would you prefer and you think government is a bad thing or that government should be leveraged to solve problems . Been generation gaps around there. But the generation gap on that question really became clear with young voters overwhelmingly saying i think government can be a force for good. I do not inherently see it as this inherently inefficient away so bad thing. So what republicans began running into was not just that they were on the wrong side of many social issues or cultural issues, from where young people are at. That is the kind of thing i can see generationally what is considered progressive today might be considered conservative 30 years from now so that is a shifting thing. But these questions of size and scope of government by free markets. Those are all things where the thinking just failed to have any kind of arguments. And young voters said may be free markets are not that great. To behas to got conservatives figuring out how to leverage free markets and talk about limited government as a way to open and expand opportunity it cannot be the way we talked about in the 1980s with dragon because the government is smaller in some ways it is bigger but the problems are not the same as they were in the 1980s. Fordsee a potential way for republican candidate to talk about things conservatives believe not justin numbers and nuts and bolts but improving peoples lives in Opening Doors for opportunity, that is the message for republican who wants to have a way forward. Fairlk about creating outcomes we have to talk about things in that language, not just tradition and ideology. Robert tara . This withaw a lot of the incredibly diverse and exciting bench of candidates we zooming out and taking longer to beyond the selection, which i do believe will be an outlier in certain ways and have us or cast. As a referendum on president trump, knock on wood for my party. But i really believe Younger Voters increasingly are going to become the largest cohort and already the largest cohort in the electorate are looking for candidates and elected officials who understand the problems of today are generations are facing, and it comes to creating a new kind of workforce that meets the challenges and , asnological innovation well as the challenges of Climate Change. They want solutions. They want innovative solutions. They do want people who have the courage of their convictions, and the will, and the spine to take on these really big problems. That means of course voting. I believe we are going to see movement in the center on both sides to actually get things done. We have been through the years of gridlock in the and ability to eat the challenges of this moment. From the governments perspective and from leadership i really think the majority of voters, especially younger coalitions, want to see things get done. And they are going to have a high bar for what kinds of solutions are presented. Negotiatedich are and debated and pushed forward into real policy change. John great. We are turning to your questions now with that youtube chat function or twittered with the twitter with a hashtag bbc live right lets start with a question from jose. The question is about trump at the trump party, and how perhaps trump is an outlier. One way of thinking about this is we have talked about generations and mentioned generational changes in the 2012 election. The publicans thinking one way and, argued lee trump moving in , a totally different direction and finding a Winning Coalition that way. So what we think about trump in regard to this generational change . Until this election, until the Joe Bidentrump matchup, he was not doing very well young voters. Wasjoe biden out doing what older voters. What to a think now of trump and trumpism and the future of demographic changes in these generations . A point of clarification. Similar sessions so everyone knows that you are seeing today are based on the 2016 election where i would be in agreement with the commenter and questioner that 2020 might be a bad baseline to think about using for the future forever because it is such an extraordinary and unusual election, relative to even 2016. But 2016, for all of the changes we talked about, actually did not look all that different. There was a shift in the educational divide among white americans that was notable. It was a notable increase and the differences between the. Otherwise a lot of voting behavior looked relatively differences between them. Otherwise a lot of voting behavior looked similar to trends in the past. So i think 20 20 would be a bad trend and we would not expect the dynamics of this Going Forward in the future. On 2016 which this is based still strikes me as a decent baseline. John and what else want to take on trump as an outlier . [crosstalk] trump, if donald whether he wins or loses the election, and by how much, may have a big effect on that. If donald trump loses by a little theres going to a lot of discussion that well, he is the last one to of one as a republican when he for president in quite some time even though he lost this time it was a weird election and he will still see a lot of trumpism out last from himself and the party. If he loses by a lot, though, you could see, i believe in politics everyone loves a winner. Whenever someone loses people want to keep their distance. Trump has unique hold on the party. I do not think you will go away. If you loose is little versus a lot, has a lot to say deft if he loses if he loses by a little or a lot will have a lot to say about trumpism in the party. Tara whether he started as an outlier from the party are not any argued lee dead, the party has wrapped their arms around trump and trumpism the party or not, and he did, the party has wrapped her arms around trump and trumpism. We do not see the party distancing and related to problems in the electorate. Regardless to how thin the margins are, between a win at a loss in this election. And we do not know how this is going to go, it has been an unprecedented election. I believe it is going to take longer than this election for the Republican Party to reassert itself as a party that can be trusted. To actually approach problems with solutions and be willing to work across the aisle, to get solutions passed into law. I really think they have doubled down in a way that has been, is going to have longterm impacts that are accelerated or made worse by the demographic shifts we are seeing. Great, another question coming in from twitter, from jolene. She asked where we will see greater electoral shifts, rural or urban areas or suburban . Let me add to that, if any of you want to comment on a breakdown of progressive opinion in Younger Generations. Some of it obviously comes from the demographic makeup of those demo generations as much more diverse. Of those generations is more diverse. But what about subgroups, white compared to olderollegewhat doe generations of the same demographic . Tara sure. I was going to note we are already seeing these. Pundits and posters tend to asnk about suburban areas predominantly white. Demographics are shifting in our suburbs. They are increasingly diverse, especially in battleground states. That impacts the electorate as well, so i think we are going to continue to see that. When it comes to alexion, that terms ofbig factor in republican versus democratic votes in 2016. I think we will continue to see that. I think we are going to start seeing more white and nonwhite collegeeducated voters that tend to lean progressive and that is going to check out the rural versus urban versus suburban landscape. I think we are going to continue to see movement away from urban areas, especially as we already are with the impact of this pandemic, and that will shake out suburban areas as allow. Others i will leave to speak to that, but i think that continues to attend more conservative. I will just add a note, especially from the demographic angle, which is to say a lot of it is going to depend on internal migration, from a demographic perspective. We are doing statelevel projections, which are already doey, but one thing we dont is say, are people going to live in cities where this and that part of the state . Depending on how a newer generations of americans decide to live, immigrants as well as their children decide to live, this could have a big impact on how this plays out, particularly in the house. If we want to think about the effects that the rural urban divide has on representation in the house, how that will play out in the future will have a lot to do with how People Choose to live. There are some trends today, but it is difficult to know. One of the things we dont take into account in our projections is the martian invasion of 2032. There is stuff about the future we dont know. We have to leave the window open for the unexpected. John you heard it here first about 2032. I let it slip. I am so sorry. John i want to followup up with the question of my own, the role of religion. People with less religious practice, people who say they dont believe in religion or people very serious about religion thats represented in Younger Generations. How much can that change be attributed to a different set of religious beliefs in the Younger Generation . Kristen i will take that one and i definitely want to hear rob on that one. It plays a pretty significant role. Whats interesting is for many young people, they are not less likely to consider themselves people of faith or significantly less likely to pray daily or feel a connection to a higher power. It is the practice of organized religion and the label that Younger Voters reject. This is another one i would throw on the pile of when people say Younger Voters are going to get married and buy homes and have kids, they are going to become more conservative. I think religion is a big piece of this. Republicans tend to do well with voters who attend religious services frequently. It is a wider, older, more married coalition. The religious piece is another one of those things that future generations dont look like as much. It is another gust of wind pushing the tides to make it harder for republicans in the future, if they maintain the same messages and policy positions that they do now. Addition to that and i think kristen calls out the right caveats is that you have Younger Generations who still might express belief in a higher power but are not doing that with an organized religion. Religious communities are part of political socialization, places where people form identities and attachments to different values and political parties. To the extent these generations are less attached to these things, it means there is the potential for them to have less effect. They have played a conservative conservatizing roll over the last 30 years. The thing i would add on to this generationally and demographically is that one of the clearest identifiers of whether you as an adult will be religious is whether you were raised in a religious household, particularly where both parents are religious. If you have higher numbers of people not attached to organized religion getting married, having children, those children are less likely to be attached to religion. This does not work in the same way as demographics. Religious education can be picked up later in life. People can choose to be part of a faith community. Forces the demographic at play would suggest a spiral, something that would lead to greater levels of secularism or detachment from organized religion. John let me move to another question if tara wants to jump in on the religion question, you can do both. Tim asks about a generational economic more. He asks about politics of economic scarcity. More and more budget going to programs that support older citizens, Social Security, medicare, being supported by Younger Voters, who are a smaller part of the pyramid, perhaps a higher burden. What do we think about attitudes about this . The older generation is less enthusiastic about government, even though they may be receiving benefits, and the Younger Generation may be more enthusiastic and not receiving those. What do we know about the generational economic scarcity war tim is referring to . Tara i think this is such an important question. I wont have any brilliant insights outside of the fact i do think Younger Generations and kristin mentioned the data point they do see government as having the potential to be a force for good. Also as we have seen the Democratic Party, a pretty Rapid Movement toward support for things like medicare for all and a public option when it comes to health care. Seeing we have not been our government and policies meet the crises of this moment in taking care of our own and with the increasing income inequality between the wealthiest individuals and everybody else, i do think there is going to be a hunger or a demand for politicians willing to take on these big challenges and come up with big solutions. Thats like candidates like bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, and andrew yang gained so much popularity, because people are hungry for Bold Solutions because they know the Current System and economy is not working for the majority. I think that is going to continue to play a real role and is going to look different than our Economic Solutions have looked in the past because of how badly we have let this go and for how long. , do you want to say more . Kristen sure. One of the things i recall from the 2012 election, when i was first studying this issue, mitt romney picked a young congressman from wisconsin, paul ryan, to be his running mate. , paul ryan talks a lot about entitlement reform and listens to metallica. Thosethings will things make him popular with young voters . I am not sure on either of those fronts. I dont have data on metallica, but i do know any time i have seen polling data about young voters, they are convinced they are never going to see a dime of Social Security and medicare. On the other hand, they are not interested in cuts that may affect their parents because they know their parents need to be taken care of or that burden will fall to them. , theially with gen x phenomenon where you have women in their 40s raising young children, also taking care of their own parents who need help. The idea there is going to be some generational warfare over entitlement programs, i have never seen it borne out. Young voters know these programs are not sustainable longterm, but at the same time are not angry at their parents or grandparents generation and feel like there has been theft. I have not seen it in data. Robert i will note metallica are all members of aarp at this point. John we have time for one last question. This,le of people asked about Voter Engagement and youth Voter Engagement. We know typically Younger Voters vote at a lower rate. Tara, you are optimistic young people are going to vote at higher rates this time. We saw a good turnout in the midterms. What do we have to say about young people voting and whether that is sustainable or if it is a onetime election this time . Kristen more people between the ages of 18 and 34 voted in the 2018 Midterm Election than ever had before since the age lowered to 18 for eligibility. I do expect we are going to see records broken again by Younger Voters. We already have seen that. More youngd millions people have already voted in this president ial election than ever before at this point in time. I mentioned this earlier, but voting behavior is influenced by when you start voting in elections. As early as you do vote for the first time and when you vote for the first time, you are more likely to vote again and again. The more young people we are bringing into the electorate or trump may be bringing into the electorate will have significant it will absolutely influence how young the electorate is and the voting of young people. By how much, it is to be determined, but i dont believe it is just this election. I do worry we need to make sure everybody enthusiastically voting in this election understands it is important to maintain the house in 2022 because the pendulum swing after residential election is is real. It is going to require a difference in how we talk to voters yearround, not just a president ial election cycle. John kristen, you get the last word on that subject. Kristen i think we can expect a high youth voter turnout. The fact it was so high in the last midterm is assigned we are going to see a ton of young people. If you are a midterm voter, it is almost certain you are a president ial election voter. Voting is a habitforming behavior. Tois up to all of us encourage a high level of civic participation that i expect to see. John thank you, kristen, tara. Thanks to all of our partners, including rob, bill, and finally, thank you to our audience. Important cspans washington journal , we take your calls live on the arrow news of the day and discussed policy issues that impact you. Journalp, the National Hotline editor gives her perspective on campaign 2020 and Indiana Republican senator will join us who formally introduced amy coney barrett. Tech reporter looks at the Top Tech Companies in campaign 2020. 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