Suzanne it is a pleasure to welcome you all here to do to our conversation on Foreign Policy and the u. S. President ial election. This event is part of the brookings policy 2020 series which seeks to empower voters ,ith factbased, datadriven nonpartisan information to better understand the policy matters discussed by candidates running for office this year. Thank you all for joining us. We are 29 days away from november 3. Americans will cast their ballots for the next president , but the future of americas global role is also at the ballot. Election,ward the todays conversation will focus in particular on its implications for the transatlantic relationship and u. S. Foreign policy toward europe. Many of leaders and their counterparts around the world are watching the election closely. While there are differing views about how the upcoming november election will shape the relationship, few in europe or it will revert to its previous form. The europeanfrom council on Foreign Relations on european views of the relationship, it shows that france and germany see the need to prepare for a longterm disengagement from the u. S. Regardless of the outcome of the election. The polling also find that irrespective of the results, no e. U. Member states seek to position europe as a third power china. The u. S. And todays discussion will assess the stakes of the election and its implication for u. S. Foreign policy. I am delighted to be joined by an outstanding panel of experts who will offer insights and analysis over what we can expect from either a second trump term presidency. They will also consider how a geopolitical europe would react to either scenario. Before we dive into the conversation, i would like to take a moment to thank the turkish business and industry association, for their support and collaboration which has possible. E this event and we are thankful for the renewed support of our center on the u. S. And europe, and we look forward to continuing our successful partnership. As always, an ironclad commitment to independence is at the center of brookings policies and values, and the views expressed here are solely those of the speakers. Once again, thank you for joining us this morning. Now over to thomas wright. Much forhank you so that introduction, and thank you for all of you for joining us online this morning. When we first devised this Panel Concept a few weeks ago, we thought it would be an eventful october with lots of things to discuss. I dont think any of us could have envisaged the circumstances in which we find ourselves this morning. So that talk about the lications the implications of the election and Foreign Policy in general we are happy to be joined by our colleagues from brookings. I will briefly introduce them although i am sure they are all known to you. First, william gholston. Ston. Lliam gal immense work on the election on u. S. Politics and the commission to politics. Hill, and of course, formerly the senior director for europe and russia at the white house during the trump celin,tration, and celia belin, a visiting fellow in the center for the u. S. And europe in Foreign Policy and authored a book earlier this year in france on the views of the Democratic Candidates for president. So, welcome all and thanks for joining us this morning. We will talk for about 45, 50 minutes, and then well throw it open for questions, which you can relay in twitter. So i guess my first question is really on the news of the day, which well start of course our best wishes by the president and to all of those affected by this outbreak and hoping for a speedy recovery. I wanted to start with you. It seems there is really no precedent for an event or Development Like this, certainly so close to an election. It really creates additional uncertainty. Its also a global event as well, talking about the commanderinchief of the United States. There is lots of things that can happen on the International Scene over the next four weeks, particularly a president who is impaired or capacity did incapacitated in the next four weeks. So, we really have everything coming into the mix, National Security, politics, personalities. I was wondering if you could give us your first sort of impressions of the gravity of this moment, maybe some way to think about it and also, how its likely to feed into the election on november 3. Well, tom, your question anticipates my answer. It is all of the above and more. I think the general sense in the areed states is that we piling one disruptive event on top of another. If this had happened against a calm backdrop, it would have been one thing, but for it to happen while the rubble was still bouncing from the tumultuous president ial debate oft week, while threats interference with the u. S. Election and recount of the ballots are in play, because the president of the United States has put them there, plus, of course, the actual situation on the ground with the pandemic not under control, with the economy and the economic recovery appearing to slow and perhaps in danger of stalling altogether, with racial conflict and partisan polarization, this is an unprecedented situation. Enough, i was an adult in 1968, and i long said that 1968 was the worst year in american politics and society ins the end of the civil war. I am in the process of revising judgment. It may well be that the year were enduring is, in fact, the worst since the civil war. With regard to the election itself, this is at the very least, a serious problem for the Trump Campaign to be added to the roster of serious problems, including a decline in Public Opinion polls that it was already facing in the following direct sense. The game plan was that President Trump would barnstorm around the country in the last month of the campaign. He is widely viewed as his campaigns most important asset to be deployed. The trump rallies are famous for their raucous enthusiasm which appears to have ripple effects through the portion of the electorate that is inclined to vote for mr. Trump, and it appears that for a substantial period of time, would i say at least the next 10 days, the Trump Campaign will not be able to play its high card. Which will impede his prospects of coming from behind to catch joe biden at the wire of this race. Thomas thank you. Thanks, bill. Fiona, if i could turn to you next. I mean, you worked with many of the people who are currently serving in the white house. I was going through a media end. Rts over the week if not a general sense of chaos, just basically of uncertainty and concern and concern about the continuity of government and in some controversy around the chief of staff mark meadows, who i know came off your time there. But i was wondering if you could maybe give us your cause that is thoughts about how this is by thexperienced officials who worked on u. S. Policy. What impact is the president s illness likely to have on u. S. National security, and any other reflections you have on these latest developments. Fiona well, i think what were seeing here is a. This really fits into what, you know, what bill has already highly personalized presidency. This really fits into what, you know, what bill has already said. And i think were in a very unusual time when, you know, President Trump has vocally, publicly and frequently stressed that he is the only person that matters in the system. And it would be very interesting to hear from, you know, bill again as we go around, im sure there will be questions about this, not just about the continuity of government, but about the whole delegation of authority in the case of incapacitation. Obviously, weve had that before in the past. But this is an administration in which the president doesnt like to delegate down authority. As i learned in the time that i think it came out clearly in the end of the testimonies last reallyobody delegates with potential authority to carry out the business of the state. You know, it can easily be undermined, a tweet, anything you say. Theres a question about whether anything anybody else in the system says really matters. Just in short, it makes it difficult for everybody else to go about their jobs. Theres little confidence on the part of i would say the routine domestic issues, but certainly you asked about National Security that people can press ahead with anything. We just recently saw that National Security advisor bryan has gone off to meet with his counterparts from russia, the equivalent of the National Security council in geneva. Obviously, we did that many times when i was in the National Security council. Even then, at that particular set of junctures, which was much earlier on in the term, the russians and others were always questioning how authoritative were our interactions . With armslong negotiations that seems to have hit a crucial period, but in the months since the election, how can they really press ahead on some of the Critical Issues, that, you know, like bill is suggesting, that require calmer atmosphere . Its very hard to make breakthroughs on Critical Issues like arms, which are very , andtive and detailed complex negotiations that are technical, when you have chaos and uncertainty. As bill was talking about in the just a metaphor also for National Security, it is very hard for anyone whos under these circumstances to get on with their jobs when its not clear how much authority that they actually have. Thomas thank you. Celia, this is really the latest development not just in u. S. Politics for the rest of the world, but also in the handling of the coronavirus. How is it being interpreted in france and in europe and what sort of the main lens through which they see the United States at the moment . Celia sorry, youre on mute. ,celia thank you, tom. Force of habit. Of course europeans are looking with great interest to whats happening to President Trump at the moment. Great interest, great concern, i must say. All the leaders have sent their sentiment of support, of concern for the president and his family. Of course, obviously, from the public or the media, you had some sarcastic comments as its wellknown that President Trump himself had adopted a position of doubt, lets say, regarding this virus. So you had some coverage on this in the media in europe, in france, and in germany and the u. K. Obviously over the weekend. Ways, it sort of reinforces this european idea that whats going on in the u. S. Is that you have a country that is adrift just a month out of the president ial election, that the pandemic is not under control, that the tensions, political tensions are extremely high, as bill said, you have crisis on top of each other. There is a strong feeling since the beginning of the pandemic, or lets say two months into it, that the u. S. Is not handling the crisis very there was a poll well. Well. There was a poll from the Pew Research Center mid september that showed that europeans considered when they were asked, who has done a good job in dealing with covid, they were given pretty good marks for the eu, around 50 , 60 . Even more for their own country, around 60 or 70 . And quite high marks for china, around 40 . But the u. S. Notes mark, was abysmal, around 10 to 15 in some of the main European Countries, considering only 10 or 15 of people considered that the u. S. Was doing a good job dealing with covid. So really, what this ultimate crisis would do was just reinforce this image and at the same time, the europeans own sense of isolation. Who else than the u. S. Can be their ally in dealing with this pandemic . And at the moment, the giant, the american giant is missing , and its leadership is missing. Now more than ever, you know, the president ial leadership is missing as well. So, i was just thinking, listening to bill and to fiona, that the only thing really missing from this confluence of crisis is an international crisis, and hopefully, you know, the u. S. Wont face that, but that would be a very weak moment, very hard moment for the u. S. At a time when power is concentrated around the president , and the president is or could be incapacitated. At least its a worrying thought also for europeans. Thomas celia, i just to follow up, i know the Prime MinisterBoris Johnson got the coronavirus. Have there been any incidences highprofile incidences of politicians in france . Contracting it . Celia there are two politicians that died from it. Another whoe, and was a president of the Regional Council and then another important figure of the socialist party who died also from covid early on in the process. And then quite a few members of cabinet have been sick. Remembernt that are or were as sick as Boris Johnson. So its never felt as close to a crisis of leadership as it was in the u. K. As in the u. S. Of course, there was sort of a sense of relief that we have a young president at the moment. Its a little bit of just luck, but especially at the height of the epidemic in april and may, i think it was sort of a comforting sentiment for some french. Im sure it is extremely troubling to have the highest function in the land being hit to this degree. I just realized that i dont think europeans feel it as much as americans do. Ive seen the coverage in the media here, it is extremely dramatic. I dont think it has quite hit here just yet. Thomas bill, i just had one followup for you and its really to do with the mechanics of the election. So i mean, theres lots of different scenarios could happen over the next few weeks. President trump could be back up and campaigning, potentially on the other hand, he could be quite sick. All of that could have an impact on the election. . Ho knows if he has to withdraw from the race. My question is, is the u. S. Electoral system sort of of set up adequately to deal with the spectrum of possibility and when people go to the polls on november 3rd, i mean, in this respect at least if not the other respects of the normal, you know, issues that weve talked about before this weekend, is that likely to go smoothly . Or could we be facing a constitutional crisis, you know, with uncertainty about both the election and then the post election period. William thats a very large question, and let me try to subdivide it for purposes of clarity. The president s ability to get back on the campaign trail will be dictated to some extent by health considerations. But as we saw yesterday, this is a president determined to an aura of strengths and invulnerability. We have good reason to believe that he will go to considerable, if not extraordinary lengths to do that and i expect that to continue. So, unless he is really so ill that he must be confined to bed, his bed in the hospital, for an extended period, i would expect him to get back on the campaign trail, even against the advice of his doctors. This is just a speculation, but i think its consistent with his character and conduct over a long period of time. Question number two, what would happen if he became so ill that he were, in effect, forced to withdraw as the president ial candidate . Here theres no ambiguity. Both the Republican Party and for that matter the Democratic Party, both have in place very clear legal mechanisms for replacing a national candidate, either the president or the vicepresident , in emergency circumstances. And i do not expect that to become a subject of contestation. We also have clear legal and constitutional processes for temporarily transferring power from the president to the vicepresident or people lower down in the chain of succession , if that were to become necessary. The question that is most ponder pondered is to do with the conduct of the election itself and the aftermath on election day. The president in the past has indicated that he distinguishes very sharply between the returns that are announced on the night of the election and the returns come in and are counted and announced after that. That could be a serious point of contestation and disruption because a record share of the votes in 2020 will be cast by mail. Many of those mailin ballots will not be counted in time to be reported on election night. So as a legal matter, i think, the situation is clear. Those ballots, to the extent they are not invalidated because of technical violations by individual voters, will be counted. Whether the president will accept the count is a different question. That will be a political question, not a legal question. I am a member of a number of organizations that have worked through a series of disaster scenarios. Of scenario like a nuclear meltdown, to which one attaches a small probability, but if came to pass, would be catastrophic. Crime does not permit me to go through all of those scenarios time does not permit me to go through all of those scenarios. Suffice it to say, both Political Parties have reviewed those scenarios in detail and it is within the realm of metaphysical possibility that one or more states would send competing slates of electors to participate in the final formal president ial selection process. If that were to happen, all bets are off. Thomas ok, well, seeming we get through all that. [laughter] president nd up with a in relatively quick order after the election, i would like to turn now to the two sort of obvious scenarios for next year, if trump is reelected or biden is elected, to ask you all to go through what that would mean for international politics, but also particularly for the transatlantic relationship. Lets start with trump. To be he is less likely reelected according to all the data, but it is a possibility, obviously. As we found out last time. Lets assume that he is reelected. Fiona, if i could start with you, you worked in the white house, and i know youve been thinking about this a bit. I know, weve talked about it separately, but it seems to me that theres sort of two different broad scenarios with the trump second term. One is that its a little bit more like the last year, you know, we see some continuity there and trying to strike deals around the world and its highly personalized, but its sort of similar to where we are right now. And the other is that its sort of an exponential progression from that, that he, you know, it becomes hyper personalized and he may be doesnt stand with some of his instincts. Is that sort of the right way to think about it . Do you have another way of conceptualizing it . What are you think are the main implications for europe, or former National Security advisor john bolton, who says he worries will pull out of nato in the second term . How worried should we be . Is there any prospect that this actually is not what people expect from a transatlantic perspective . Fiona i think i already said in my lost spot that it was hyper this is why everything is so fragile. President trump is literally the wild card in our political system right now. His health, what happens to can campaign,he all of the issues of worse Case Scenarios that bill has put up for us. Everything will also hinge on a second term how that second term comes about. Is it through an even smaller margin in the Electoral College or a bigger margin in the Electoral College, because of things we have not caught in polling . But at the same time, a huge vote against the president , bigger than it was in the popular vote . That will all set the tone for the presidency. Irrespective of outside influence or anything else thats going on here. Lets play that scenario out. If the president s again swept through the Electoral College largerhere was an even vote against him with the popular vote, he will be on the defensive extremely defensive. , more defensive than he already is. Hell be asked questions, who will be key people in the cabinet, how many people will stay on . Who will leave . Particularly on the National Security front. I mean, i can imagine a number of the president s closest associates who will be put into these positions. Be, the question also will will congress and the senate be in the hands of the republicans . Be a flip of the senate as well over to the democrats as a result of the elections . There are so many variables here. Its a numbers game who is going to be in. Lets just say that, you know, you have the senate and the congress in democratic hands. You can imagine what a bruising fight it will be. For cabinet officials who retire and to get other people into place, particularly people close to the president and dont have the National Security credentials as some others more recently. I think a lot of the people who are already there will stay. Some of the white house and the west wing, but also the deputy assistance throughout the departments and agencies. We should be very grateful for people staying on and quite difficult circumstances. A lot of people have been enacting i dont know how this could play out with bill barr come about how long people can stay when you start with a new term as well. That will reduce the ability to really do things, adding back to what i said before when you have plenty of potentially delegated authorities. You wonder on whose behalf are you speaking because the president says and wont speak on his behalf, and speaks on his behalf and not on behalf of the country. Asked about you nato. I think that we can see a lot of the decisionmaking is driven by disputes all over the countries. And whats going on with nato is really the question about 2 of gdp. As a result of covid19 and the largescale recession we are seeing on a global scale, a lot of countries gdps will have fallen. If defense spending stays consistent, they will be already at 2 . That might be the upside. It could take the edge off of some of those discussions. However, i doubt it and there could be a huge debate celia,. Celia, interesting to see what you think. Because weve had britain pulling out and brexit, there figuring out how to double down on nato, we will have tightened to resources, and there will be different perceptions of the threat. Should we be doing more on pandemic . What about the rise of china . How do we tackle russia . There are so many points of contention. Theres also the question of europe and will europe build up capabilities . We have france and it will be interesting to see the relationship with the u. K. I can see suddenly more room for divisiveness on nato, rather than less if things follow the pattern that we have already seen unfold. The president will also i think be defensive on the home front and will be less interested in having a broader strategic approach abroad. I will flag one area where there is already a big crisis, armenia and azerbaijan. The United States was already critical in helping to manage things. We have a grouping including france, the u. S. , and russia that is trying to manage the dispute in the past. Now we see the United States is missing in action. The thick, we were in of the action. But now we see turkey and russia and they are mirroring some developments that happened in syria. This is already kind of an example of what can happen when the United States isnt fully engaged. To be honest, i would be worried about this us getting engaged because weve shown a propensity in recent conflicts to take sides at the role after neutral as a role of neutral arbiter. Given the large Armenian Diaspora here, and given the president ial relationship with kim kardashian, who has been tweeting about armenia, one of the most famous armenians in , it is notes culture a good sign for playing a neutral role here. We have had Close Relationships in the past with azerbaijan. If, celia, to know if france also has a similar relationship. Celia absolutely there there is a large Armenian Diaspora and close ties as well. Thomas celia, if we could turn to you on this, we had spoken about this before. Before the pandemic, i think the feeling in europe was trump was likely to be elected. Certainly not the security theerence in february, american delegation seemed to that was either biden would win, but the delegation was resigned, or sort of assumed he would be reelected because of the economy and how the democratic primary was. We are at quite a different point now. But trying to go back and put on that hat a little bit, what the europeans are thinking about the trump second term, how would they be likely to react once the shock sort of were off of the Second Surprise result . Would they conclude the u. S. Permanently changed and there would be the end of the whatatlantic alliance, and president macron did for three years, assuming that we can work with him and its not too different where the u. S. Has been normally. Could you walk us through what those policy planners and leaders would be thinking, say, and six or eight months time if there is a second term of President Trump . Think yes, well i europeans by and large, up until may be the convention and a little bit after that, still only recently have i started to see experts say repeatedly, yes, joe biden has been ahead in the polls a substantial margin and theres a possibility of a Biden Administration. As murky as this, europeans want to prepare themselves for a second Trump Administration. They want to prepare themselves psychologically but to what i could see theyre not preparing very much in terms of actually anticipating the type of policy that should be put in place or the type of initiative should be put in place with a second Trump Administration. Part of the reason is i think after four years, europeans still havent found sort of a remedy to trump or a way to deal with donald trump. And fiona said it and you said it, because trumps policy and Foreign Policy is so personal, it is anathema to europeans and something that both european institutions, european leaders and even personalized, you know, president ial systems such as france have trouble dealing with, because they have such a strong administrative bureaucratic state behind it that deals with a lot of old Foreign Policy decision and they have been taken aback for the past four years by the fact that engaging with, you know, the regular channels of the american administrative states has sometimes sometimes produced suboptimal results or could be contradicted from one day to the other by decisions from the white house. So they still havent found the formula. Ite house. So they still havent found the formula. And the other example of this is that president macron has tried to have a personal relationship, a good personal relationship with the president and personalized politics, once again, it hasnt led this proximity hasnt led to major policy results either. So if a second term is to be imagined, i think first europeans will try to think whether trump President Trump was still vindicated by a second win and as fiona pointed out, whether he would be able to just go one step further, doubling down and some sort of a on some of his own instincts. On trade, continuing, or increasing trade pressures on the eu, continuing to retreat from global responsibilities, questions around nato, obviously, and the other element that theyre thinking about is that they know that donald trump is maybe the way to engage him is to engage him on specific issues and to offer you know, offer for him to reach big deals or any sort of agreement that would put him in a good political life, practicically, because it doesnt have to be rooted in in and in that case, maybe the europeans have some elements that they can play with once again on the trade front, but overall, just to finish, i think theres a big question that combines right now in the longterm, which is theres a question in european minds today on whether trumps covid diagnosis and covid illness at the moment will ever change his mind on the way to deal globally and collectively with this issue. And you know, europeans, as much as many other countries have been waiting for u. S. Leadership, at least u. S. On collective efforts, on producing a vaccine, on distributing treatments on working together on this issue. And the u. S. Has been strong and it has helped more than 120 countries on a bilateral level for during this crisis, but has failed to engage collectively both in multilateral organizations, but also in sort of more ad hoc initiatives. Thats the question for europeans, can donald trump ever change . Can he change based on personal experienced . As he mentioned in his videos, i have, he said, he said something like, i have i have gone to school with this covid, i have learned things and i will go back on this and discuss this, so maybe thats the case and it will give europeans some hope, i guess. Yeah, celia, just to jump in there and well go to bill in a second. You know, that sort of happened to Boris Johnson, right . He was very cavalier about it, joked about it continuing to shake hands and afterwards was quite chasened. I dont see that happening with trump. Last night he did make those remarks which i thought were a bit odd, but said he learned a lot and within hours he went out in a van with the secret service in a very dangerous environment, you know, to his to his secret Service Agents to wave at the crowd and i think that to me, thats a pretty significant episode because it shows is that, you know, how irresponsible hes been internationally and nationally on this and no different than sort of irresponsible he is when his own health is at risk and so this is just what hes like, i think, in terms of his approach to it. And you know, to me, it makes me pretty worried, now, that i dont i think he may use it as a pr talking point, but you know, i would be very surprised if he i think most people like the Prime Minister, you could have changed, but im not sure with him, but, bill, i know were on trump back to the fires, but maybe a little on that, but also looking ahead to a second term. I mean, what would what do you think a trump second term would look like on Foreign Policy and is this sort of a real hinge moment . I mean, some people have described it as, you know, this will be the pivot event for u. S. Led International Order because of his opposition to it. Is that over is that where were headed . No, tom, i dont think it is overwrought. Thats the way i see the stakes of this election. It was one thing to elect mr. Trump in 2016. There was a widespread sense of discontent with the pace of the economic recovery. Many portions of the country felt entirely unseen and unheard by the previous administration. And mr. Trump was a protest candidate, the classic protest candidate who parlayed a strong campaign, an outsiders disruptive message in the narrowest possible victory. The American People have now had four years to experience directly the consequences of this kind of governance. If they were to ratify it by giving mr. Trump a second term, i would conclude that the america that i grew up in for nearly three quarters of a century has changed fundamentally and amazed if people around the world did not draw the same conclusion. Now, i grant everything that celia and fiona said about the the specifics of different of different scenes of action, of different tactical possibilities, but the overall framework of understanding of the United States and its role in the world i believe would have to shift. And governments and peoples around the world would be would be blind not to make that intellectual shift and to, especially in europe, rethink how it can do the best for itself in the absence of the United States that it can depend on. And let us remember that to depend on the United States ultimately is to depend on the American People. It is to depend on the understanding of the people that politics is to be contested at midfield. And not at one end of the goal or the other. And an electoral victory, a ratifying victory for mr. Trump under these circumstances, i think, would lead straight to the conclusion that the American People are more unstable and less reliable in their judgment in ways that affect the security of International Alliances and international affairs. What would a second trump term look like . My bet is on more of the same. And my reason for saying that is very simple. You know, as fiona has insisted, this is a highly personalized administration, where the formal structures of advice and Decision Making are much weaker than they are customarily. Add that to your premise, tom, that mr. Trump is unlikely to fundamentally change his personality, so, if you have a personalty driven administration and a personality that does not change, why would one expect anything else except more of the same . And that would be my prediction and i do not say that welcoming it in the slightest. Thanks, bill. And so celia, maybe well turn back to you to look at biden and well go to fiona after that as well. Celia, you spent quite a bit of time following the democratic primary candidates around the campaign trails, including vicepresident baidu biden, i its safe to say at the time did not look like a front runner and you wrote the book how the democrats sort of see the world and what the implications of the election might be in terms of that sort of democratic world view and what it meant internationally. Could you sort of give us your impressions of what you think a Biden Administration will be like, in particular, how it might be received in europe and, you know, one would expect, perhaps, that would be widely welcomed, but after that initial sort of welcome, or sense of relief because of the Trump Administration, what are some of the traditional elements, including complications, that might arrive over the next year, whether there would be any concerns that the french government or europeans would have, what would the problems be and what were the main areas of opportunity be as well . Yes, indeed. I sort of completely misjudged joe biden. Its probably you know, i can use my foreigner card, sorry, i completely missed primaries. [laughter] i remember, tom, telling you less than two weeks before South Carolina, you know, i had just seen joe biden and im sure giving a speech to a room that was emptying out and i was telling you, you know, the guy is done. This is done. This is over. And then two weeks later, you had a major win in South Carolina and then, obviously, he went on to become the nominee. And part of the reason i think i completely misjudged, also, was that i was first impressed by the progressive ways and the capacity of large parts of the electorate and the candidates to be ideological so probably closer to european politicians than to american politicians that tend to build coalition and that tend to find the center of gravity rather than push ideological ideas. But i think the strength in the Democratic Party at this juncture is to have both. You have both the progressive ideological elements on the ground, the battle of idea, feeding, you know, the youth and people that want to be engaged for a reason, and, but then they sort of rallied around the candidate that can embody all of this because he can embody everybody at the same time. And hes able to sort of, as you said, be a bridge between sort of the more traditional Democratic Party and the younger progressive wing of the party. But so, that raises a big question in my mind regarding Foreign Policy. Will joe biden be a transformational candidate . Will he be will he bring progressive ideas to his Foreign Policy . How but hes also coming in specific context, as we mentioned earlier, the context of this multiple era of crisis, mostly internal, but the pandemic, the pandemic crisis, the racial crisis, also the Climate Crisis all at the same moment and will we which will weigh very heavily on his capacity to do Foreign Policy. So the other big question is that will Biden Administration be inward looking for will it be able to do what he says he wants to do, which is to restore u. S. Leadership and theres always a caveat to restoring u. S. Leadership that most of his advisors will say it starts at home. You have to start by rebuilding americas strength at home to rebuild credibility in the world stage, but i think its this articulation of inward looking and trying to restore u. S. Leadership thats going to create attention, but thats also at the core of probably the first year at least in office. I would say that i would identify, also, three main points that i think are of high interest for partners and allies around the globe. The first point is that theres a question on the on competition with china and i think its more than likely then that the overall u. S. China competition will remain as a framework for policing the in the foreseeable future and that has, you know, implications, both because the u. S. Will once again to restore its strength visavis china, so a lot of investment to baidu talked about investing in research and development and in infrastructure, including a Green Energy Transition and investment, but it also has implication for relationship to allies. In particular, if theres a tendency to sort of confront models, the authoritarian model embodied by china, and the model embodied by the u. S. In which case one the priority for biden and his administration will also be to strengthen democracy at home, which as discussed has been to say the least, hurt by the last few years in the divisions in this country, as well as decisions from the leadership, so strengthening democracy will be a core issue. The last two points that are also priorities, one is a dialog with allies and partners. Joe biden has talked repeatedly about restoring alliances. He offer to restore alliances as to counter the influence of authoritarians around the world and he has suggested that he would have a summit or a summit of democracies in next year or at least some form of acknowledgment of the importance of allies and likeminded in some form. I think its too evolve in the next few months should he be elected. And if you have the priority looking inward and the competition with china, i think theres going to be a huge priority to geopolitical issues. Focusing on innovation, focusing on cyber issues, focusing on trade, action, all of this meaning that these are the areas where the u. S. Can compete, can compete in the world, can invest, but its also profitable at home. And this will reduce the interest for traditional military intervention, as we can imagine. Thats just a continuation on this front, of this interest to have since the obama administration, this interest for Major Military intervention, which is probably just as good. But a strong instances on geoeconomic issues which can then find a partner, i think, in the eu. Thats sort of the priority of the european commission, the priority of many European Countries that dont feel and im not specifically talking about france there. But feel more at ease with geoeconomic issues than with geopolitical issues and to find some common interest on working on climate action, on cyber issues, on trade, et cetera. Overall, i think people are expecting a sort of a gentler america. The New York Times has talked about empathy for joe biden, but he will face a world that has, you know, has grown angrier and more resentful and that might not be so ready to see such a partner return to the white house. So, theres going to be a lot of work ahead. Thank you, celia. Were going to go after we go to ben and fiona to audience questions, weve got some of those. About of we do, bill, could you give us maybe a brief analysis of what you think a Biden Administration will be like, sort of, you know, in particularly in terms of what one might not expect. What might be some of the some of the developments that might be sort of surprising to people . Well, actually, tom, i expect the expected. [laughter] and i say that because joe biden is the ultimate traditionalist. His entire political personality has been formed over a period of five decades in public life. Around the sorts of arrangements that characterize the post war world and my view is that he will try to shore up the architecture of what hes most familiar with, while pushing forward on some of the new transnational issues. So, i think obviously there will be a renewed focus, perhaps greater than ever before, on climate issues viewed in an international context, i think that theres likely to be a renewed emphasis on international and transnational cooperation on health issues. So all in all, you know, i think that there will be a certain amount of new wine, but it will be in the same old bottles and most of the people around biden who are likely to adopt senior positions in his administration, are by and large traditionalists. They believe in the post war order, not because it was perfect, but because it was to all alternatives. I would expect a Biden Administration to be tougher on china than bidens own history would suggest simply because current circumstances have changed. Unlike the current administration, i would expect him to work hard for a coalition to confront china and the European Union, i think, would be Partner Number One in the construction of that coalition. Partner number two would be the democracies in east asia and the pacific. So, policy innovation, i think, is more to be expected on the chinese front than on any other. Thanks, bill. Fascinating. My own take in part, i agree with that, but i think that if you look whats interesting to me within the biden world, theres actually sort of an interesting debate going on. You know, so they all believe in alliances and in the International Order, but theres some relatively significant differences about how to deal with that and i think its i find it interesting to ask, you know, not just how biden is different from trump, but if he will be different to obama. If biden one will be different to obama three. And maybe there will be sort after synthesis between the two. I suspect we may see once the election is over, some of those debates coming to the fore, a bit more. Because right now, you know, just by being in favor of alliances, biden is very different from trump, but that doesnt a about what biden would be like, there are different ways to be pro alliance. But well see. Do you want to come back in and then go to fiona . No, except to say, just to reemphasize, that the obamaBiden Administration was the end presided over the end of the old confidence that chinese economic integration would give china incentives to play by the Global Economic rules and would lead to a progressive liberalization. Nobody believes that anymore. Not in the Democratic Party, and not in the Republican Party. So in that respect, it will not be the third obama term. Not possible. Fiona, your take on a Biden Administration, maybe also with a little twist, if youre willing to. Just, is there anything in the Trump Administration, you know, excluding the president , but in the Trump Administration approach whether its in the National Security strategy, National Defense strategy or anything else youre working on, maybe they should be thinking about keeping any continuity, do you think it will be sort of a sharp contrast with the Trump Administration . Im sorry to everybody watching im getting emails from people why do you keep looking out of your window, i have to break off, this is a segue to what i want to say. Because pepco, the infamous Electric Company showed up to cut down a tree unannounced and i have to go and move the car. Which nothing stays constant. And i had no idea theyre going to do that this morning and looking nervously in case a big branch comes through the window because they seem to be cutting things around. If im taken out by a branch, i apologize to everybody. Anyway, what i want to stress here is just as bill emphasized that biden and obama administration, obamaBiden Administration was presiding over the end of really the confidence or the assumption that china would adapt to the kind of a larger International Environment we cant basically say that we can go back to anything that it was before. Many others have written there was something of a a ceiling in europe that the United States moved up it was because the moved on and pivoted to asia, but they were rethinking the whole u. S. Position. There was a lot more reluctance to be involved in the middle east a lot more reluctance to be involved in all kinds of places for the United States and the 1990s in particular particular and in the 2000s, and i mentioned which most americans havent thought about since 1994 when the last ceasefire was brokered theres all kinds of issues behind the scenes the United States was monitoring in terms of conflict, and the whole ecosystem and interNational Security has changed now. China has risen. Its not just rising anymore. Its the dominant player in the asia and indopacific region. Weve seen the clashes with china and india on the fragile border. We knows i could know china means business. The fact they have killed several china will not necessarily continue to manage things in its own neighborhood as it has before. We are going to be really confronted with a whole series of issues, and Climate Change is inescapable. Fires burning from california to siberia, everything that we know is changing here. Again, the whole global perspective is changing. There is no back to go back to. What worries me about the Biden Administration, being a conventional expect expected where in unexpected uncharted territory globally at this particular juncture. The pandemic has constituted everyones mind and focus on the fact those risks are ahead. I think that gives us opportunity to work more closely with our allies. There are some structures that i hope a common Biden Administration will try to keep in place. Some of them have disappeared somewhat but there are very good Deputy Assistant secretaries in the government. I dont hope that would not be a purge of a single because an incredible number of people of state on behind the scenes and tried to keep the ship steady and running. They should be commended for their action, not condemned. The last thing we need is the bloodletting within bureaucracy. We have to remember u. S. Officials in the vast majority like the rest of the United States reflects the composition of the population across all of the government, state and local as was the the federal governm. Theres a lot of military veterans. Its the Senior Executive service of been wider, male, have contributed from the past but were trying to vitalize the u. S. Federal government at this point that we need to put trust back in but we need to see our Public Servants not as radically unelected deep state bureaucratic coup plotters but represent the best of the United States and get back to a firming in their hard work on behalf of the country. The National Security council when i i was there also set up some structures for engaging with counterparts. A recent visit to geneva by National Security adviser obrien and deputy is one of a long sequence of meetings that a think it should be continued. We are passing on tough messages, not just moving ahead of things like start and arms control. Theres some stretches at the, task force was set up with governments, new relationships that were being forged with some of the european players need to continue but we also will need a wholesale i think reassessment of some of those critical relationships that are just become so afraid that the only anchor is relationship between the president and of the person on top. The would be a lot to do but i would just, please not bloodletting and purge all personal, take a hard look at people been there, a lot of people are good public servantd are some structures that could be useful for moving ahead with the National Security issues. Thank you, the guilder. So we now will turn to audience questions and we only have about ten minutes so what i am proposing to do is direct a couple of questions from members of the audience to each of you, and if you could all be relatively brief in the answers just so we can get through them. Celia come if we could start with you. We have two questions here, one from randy who asked how can the u. S. Unbacked global trust after the Trump Presidency . Another one from maria who asks, should europeans develop an independent defense allies if trump withdraws the u. S. From nato . Off of those i think probably fairly sort of strong feelings and powers in terms of European Defense, and also the Biden Administration might need to do something or if you give us your thoughts on those, please. Well, these are very open questions. The first question if i remember correctly is what to do to regain trust, what should the u. S. Do. It probably depends who you are asking. Im going to try to answer as a european but probably answer as a frenchwoman. A minimum of the minimum would be to just reengage and work after years of working, not working together and being in competition with each other. We all remember donald trump, President Trumps famous sentences, the eu is worse thn china. These are words just explanatory of his own trade policy but in many ways it has profoundly disrupted euroamerican relations along the lines that are we not working together . Theres always been strong competition on economic sector, competition between the two sides of the atlantic. But the idea was always that this was healthy competition to make our societies, our economies, our markets just better. And not competition to diminish the other and to win over the other. So the idea of just returning to a winwin cooperation, at the minimum engaging in conversation, engaging in dialogue would be important. Theres a specific case i might want to underline which is the idea that with this pandemic, and has been going on now for years obviously, theres a very strong conscious in europe of the importance of the Climate Crisis. And the idea that the u. S. Has been missing in action completely since at least the Paris Agreement and since donald trump came to power, is a very unsettling for europeans are looking at this crisis as a sort of, the covid crisis times a million pictures because it affects will be lingering for decades, because the devastation will be infinitely more important, just because theres only one way out of this crisis, at least managed as much as we can this crisis, which is a collective answer. So the best way for the u. S. To engage in the world would be to pick such an important crisis and to really work with its allies and partners on it. Second point, what about the European Defense in case trump rus leads nato. I think this is too far ahead when president macron talked about the braindead nato, people considered he was talking about the end of nato. What he was really talking about was that nato was moving around without its head, meaning without any leadership. And leadership should come from more than the u. S. But at least the u. S. Is fully required. Which means that even within nato you have tensions between member states, including turkey, turkey and many member states, including france, where the u. S. Not only opinion but leadership weight would be extremely valuable. So maybe the first thing that europe needs at this point is sort of a a reengagement on wt do we do with nato. Do we also work and utilize nato to do with more global challenges, including pandemic, including the future Climate Crisis, but also what do we do with the security environments for europe and in general the rivalry of competition with china . There are many, many topics to discuss already at the nato framework. And if this was to not be productive, to disappear, i think europe also pushed by france will continue its conversation on strategic autonomy or at least some form of strategic conscious, Strategic Organization for europe to build some capability, hopefully and cooperation with nato but worstcase scenario to have started to prepare a europe cut loose from its american all ally. Thanks, celia. Fiona, i know you want to come in but i have two questions for you as well so you could follow up on what celia said but also the first one is on turkey, which is appropriate i guess today but where are u. S. Turkey relations headed . Either under biden or trump. They have been pretty the last few years, although trump has consulted quite frequently with erdogan, so what you say the u. S. Turkey relationship going . And then the second question is from Terry Frazier pederasts, without u. S. European Court Coordination can the u. S. Sustain its influence as an international acthar . What the question is asking is there are those in the trump orbit may be including the himself who thinks the u. S. Is slightly tied down. Is that sort of a plausible worldview and could run into obstacle . I shall take that first and hopefully people theres what you purchase outside the window. You probably cant hear it so i would just kind of press ahead. The issue about leadership and influence are tied together, correct . If you have come you only have the ability to lead if you have influence. You dont get influence through influence is done it is part of teamwork, working together with others and having allies. If we look at countries that dont have any alliances like russia, for example, which has putin and trump actually have very similar view that alliances are just in time for months, that they are kind of really consisted of the countries that want you to do something for the period that actually is a what an ally is about. And unlike is what celia was describing is what countries are stricken out together problems. Without the allies and the close alliances with not just europe but australia, canada, new zealand, japan, india, the kind of relationships the United States is being developing globally, they would be forced to course countries. More spats over trade that celia was referring to because just as she said when President Trump said europe was worth the check using about trade worse. Seeing European Union as a competitor but as a competitor at hot to be rolling over and giving the United States unfettered preferences in trade because the United States was in charge of its protection. This gets to the issue of nato because the way that nato is being talked about is almost like a kind of protection scheme. Of course it was set up as a protection scheme but Mutual Protection all of us working together after world war ii, and during the cold war. President trump was talking about at different times that i hurt and all of us have heard more like the end of the roman empire when the romans would show up and sacca said if he hadnt gotten of their protection money. Thats not how nato was envisioned so that gets into the point about what to do with nato. If we get back to the thought it is collective defense, i kind of mutual versus cooperation on the bigger problems of the day how to tackle the threat, then that will put us in better steps are moving ahead. The difficulty would be a time to come up with a new vision for nato anything perhaps we should just that to the. Think about 2010 when theres a great exercise to have new doctrine for nato. Even everything we talked about today, the environment is not and the threats are different from what they were after world war ii. Not just in form of countries or even nonstate actors like terrorism. They are global pandemics. They are going to be issues of Climate Change, mass migration, even with parts of europe as well as the United States that might become inhabitable. What nato gives us is the patents and those long experience of working together, not just run militarist but on the civilian side as well. The secretarygeneral of nato stoltenberg has actually been very good at leadership turkey cant live without participation of the rest of the member countries and that gets us to turkey. Turkey, the relationship has become, and to keep using this term, its going to be happy now, hyper personalized is between the relationship between trump and erdogan. While turkey is ambivalent about its participation in the european arena, and is bogged down in syria and instead jumping into the fray between armenia and osprey ghana and taking sides here in weight has a privacy. 1984 turkey was instrumental in helping with russia to broker the ceasefire. Its the point and much more divisive and interventionist role with seeing turkey flexing not that just as muscle but creating all kinds of upheaval in Eastern Mediterranean come fighting the cyprus in greek over territory and energy exploration. Following out with israel after having a close Strategic Partnership with israel. We also are majestic relationship has been on the rock since iraq and is not fixed just by having the two guys at the top city debt down and tryo work it out. What weve seen is the son of all diplomacy between Jared Kushner and all barack, the middle east Peace Process and the new middle east plan at all kinds of other things that are being discussed here. We need to have structure and we think the only way to put the turkishu. S. Relationship as well as the turkish european relationship by contract is to do that in the nato context. It is too divisive in turkey relationship with the eu but there are many key European Partners including france and germany and another country that the relationship is for faceted, the way you can have a discussion, serious discussion with turkey about the future. So not on big picture but trying to do with these then perhaps structured but ad hoc way on problemsolving rather than coming up with big doctrines. Thank you, cno. And so were pretty much at a time. I do have one question from you and it comes from, thistle your final a final question and comes in Garrett Mitchell ask, how would you look at trump scenario ended it democrats took the senate. He says one that of course is possible. If you could answer that may be and give any sort of Closing Remarks and then we will wrap up. Well, because this is a panel on Foreign Policy, ill make the obvious point. That is, that the president s power is at its zenith in the context of Foreign Policy, and less there is the need to submit a formal treating to the senate for ratification or unless a particular Foreign Policy venture implicates appropriation, requires appropriation in order to sustain it but, of course, even there President Trump has demonstrated that he believes the executive has authority to shift funds around within budgets and between budgets. Hes been able to get away with it so far, and in the second turkey would continue that. I i think a democratic said it would not typically fed her him in the context of Foreign Policy. Nick two concluding points. First of all, european strategic autonomy is a meaningless phrase and lassa germany is willing to rearm and less that is the pivot around the idea of a europe a bold defense to defend itself will revolve. I am waiting for some serious german thinking of that question which i have not seen for very long time. Concluding thought number two. Fdr in the 1930s saw that an america that was an isolated democracy was an america or in danger democracy. That was the ultimate source of his engagement on the site of european democracies. He was right then, and that is still correct today. The United States in its own self interest must restore its standing as the leader of the worlds democracies. And i am encouraged by the fact that former Vice President biden from the earliest days of his campaign has espoused that principle quite firmly, and i hope very much that if you he is elected he will carry it through. Thank you so much for joining us this morning. Very interesting, very timely discussion. Thank you also for opening up the proceedings and for sponsoring todays event here we very much look forward to engaging with all of you in the future. Thank you for joining us today on youtube, on zoom and online. And we look forward to our next conversation. An our campaign 2020 coverage continues of candidates campaigning and debating. Cspan, your unfiltered view of politics. I honestly would tell you, i dont think when the dust settles it will be whether america becomes more republican or democrat. Whether we are more liberal or conservative. I think the choice in this election is whether america remains america. As joe biden has said, the moment he entered this race, it is about the soul of our nation, who we are, what we stand for. And maybe most importantly, who we want to be. Watch the Vice President ial debates between Vice President mike pence and senator Kamala Harris live wednesday at 9 00 p. M. Eastern from the university of utah in salt lake city. Watch the debates live on cspan, listen on the cspan radio app, and go to cspan. Org debates for live debate coverage. There is a link to each debate for reactions, and watch archival debate video from the cspan library. Cspans washington journal. Every day we take your calls live on the air on the news of the day, and we will discuss policy issues that impact you. Tuesday morning, cook clinical reports discusses Key Senate Races ahead of novembers election. Author and Vice President ial scholar previews wednesday nights Vice President ial debate. Live washington journal, at 7 00 a. M. Tuesday morning. Join the discussion. President trump left Walter Reed Medical Center monday on marine one and returned to the white house after three days in the hospital to treat his coronavirus infection. [cameras shuttering]