Transcripts For CSPAN Washington Journal Kyle Kondik 20240712

You can hear that live tuesday at 9 30 a. M. Eastern on cspan and cspan. Org or listen live with the radio out. With 85 days to go before election 2020 we are joined by the managing editor at the university of Virginia Center for politics. We start in the battle of control for the senate. If you had to pick a hand to play right now would you rather be in the position of democrats or republicans . Guest the democrats are going to lose in alabama. Fourneed to net or when republican seats to get to a 5050 tie. Democrats look good in the senate races of arizona and colorado. They are favored and there are better than 5050 in North Carolina and maine, two other republican seats. The tricky thing for democrats is, once you get beyond those states, they have other targets, but none of them are as good as those four. Theate Playing Field core targets look good for democrats and if you are winning 53ate majority you want 52 so you have majority. You cannot have any vacancies. Host in terms of expanding the senate map, can you explain what a waive election is . Guest i do not know if there is a precise definition. It is one of those things you know it when you see it. 2008 was a waive election. 2018 maybe not because usually in a waive election it party is doing well at all races being contested. Well. Ats did pretty they lost seats in the senate year it would look like 2008. Targetseyond those four and cutting into republican turf. That is where you look at senate targets like iowa, montana, there are actually maybeces in georgia south carolina, alaska. You talk about the map expanding and in some ways it contracted over the last week and that there is an open seat in kansas and democrats are hoping kris kobach, who is hard on immigration and Voting Rights he he lost to 2018. Kansas went from being a very attractive democratic target moving into the french of the fringe. Kansas has not elected a democrat since 1932 since fdr. They have a long republican lineage. Host center for politics is where you can go to see the crystal ball. You can find this map. Picksthe current map that which races are leaning which way. That is United States senate map. The blue colors are states that are leaning or safe democratic. States in red are likely safe republican. In the yellow category are the tossups. We will focus our attention this morning there. Iowa, North Carolina, and maine. If you want to call in and talk about the races you are interested in, the phone lines are split up by party. 2027488001 . 2027488000 . Independent lines 2027488002 . You said this cycle is linked as it often is. We expect the first hour of the program discussing who joe biden should pick as his nominee. Any thoughts on that pick and what it could mean down the ballot . Guest it would be interesting to see if he selects a black woman as his running mate. It has been rumored kamala who haved susan rice demings. Lot abuzz, val there is research that would suggest that if you selected a black running mate this is based on other kinds of race. We have never had a black running mate. We do not know what electoral impact that will have, but there is suggestion that if there was a black woman on the ticket, that person might actually help with black turnout. In many of the most competitive states there are significant black voting blocks. If that person could spur additional black turnout, that might be helpful divide in. But i did not only needs to pick helpful, or at least not hurtful, but he also needs to pick someone who can govern and could end up being the front runner for the president ial nomination as soon as four years from now. Nother biden wins or does because it seems possible that biden would run again would not run again given his age. Some of these announcements have come on fridays which is kind of odd because you do not think of that as being a news breaking day. Seeing as it is leading into the convention, to the extent it is happening, but not a Convention Like we are used to, i think the idea is the announcement is on a friday, you generate talk over the weekend, and that lasts into the convention. I do not know when to expect it. We have seen the is announcements these announcements come out late on friday. Ryan wasthat paul going to be mitt romneys running mate was on a friday. Host the Democratic National Convention Begins next friday. Next tuesday the centennial of the ratification of the 19th amendment. Perhaps see that as part of the rollout of what Vice President former Vice President joe biden said will be a woman as his Vice President pick. Michigan state with one of those potential contenders to be joe bidens Vice President ial nominee, gretchen whitmer. Also a Key Senate Race with the cycle. Let us start there. Ralph is in battle creek, michigan, a democrat. Caller i was wondering if this analyst has new swing states or different swing states for this president ial election. A electoralnbc had College Rejection and had texas, ohio, and georgia as swing states or up for grabs. Changing . Host kyle kondick, as you answer that this is the president ial it looked world rating from cristobal. If you need to talk to the map, it is there. Guest great question. I think the map of competitive states is relatively large for president s. Maybe not relatively large for a few generations ago, but there are relatively few states that vote close to the national average. I would say texas is definitely joining the list of competitive president ial states. Andgia is in that category ohio and iowa, which vote heavily for donald trump and 2016 and were more classically voting to the national average, they seem competitive. If you look at our map we have all four of those that lean republican, giving the president the benefit of the doubt. If you want to talk about tossups, if you look at the current polling, the states are not closely competitive. If you feel, as i do, this race might tighten a little bit down statesetch, maybe those vindicates republican, but the president cannot take any of those states for granted. Again, some of these are familiar to those who follow the Electoral College. Iowa and ohio are definitely that way. Texas is new and if it were to become a bona fide swing state in the next 10 years, or even this election, that really causes a problem for republicans because republicans are so used to be able to count on texas over the past several president ial elections. The secondbiggest date and it is growing quickly. It will add another two or three electoral votes after the upcoming census. It will be over 40 electoral votes starting 2024. The democrats have hammerlock some of the other big states like california, illinois, new york. You have to wonder about the Electoral College future if texas becomes a swing state because the republicans cannot win without ohio let alone texas. Host i want to focus on race ratings. Bidenap currently has joe votes, the electoral blue states on the map. Donald trump winning 204 electoral votes and 66 in the tossup category. You expect these to tighten up a little bit, but i want to compare your ratings to other race rating groups out there. Yours is perhaps more friendly to President Trump than others. The npr map has joe biden with 297 electoral votes and donald trump with 170. 308 and has joe biden President Trump with 187. Inside elections have 319 in the joe biden category and 188 and President Trumps columns. Talk through how you do this and why theres so much difference. Guest short. Sure. Beingk we are probably more cautious than others. Some of it has to do with polling, but this is the mist of summertime. It is pretty good to take stock. Not that i think donald trump will dump mike pence, but he does have a choice even if that is to keep mike pence on the ticket. We are looking at current numbers and thinking that even though states like ohio and texas and georgia are tied, we would still rather beat up in the states given the size of the victory in 2018. Think they are safe for trump by any means. There is some disagreement about florida which is a state that seems persistently to be close in the president ial election. There are polls showing biden is up by 5 to 10 points in that state. My own experience tells me that is not going to last. This might be a different type of election. The president has a lot of things going against him right now with coronavirus, state of the economy, the fact his writing was not that great to begin with. It has been a little bit down lately, not a ton, but done a little bit. We continue to kind of look at the states as being harder to pick than the polls would suggest. If they stay the way they are, and we get to labor day and biden is still leading consistently in states like florida and wisconsin and arizona, then it might be time to move those into the democratic column. Host back to the phones. This is roxio in alabama. Alabama is the state with the most vulnerable senator this cycle according to your rankings. Go ahead. Caller i cannot stand joe biden. He is an idiot. Who in the world is going to run the country if he gets in there because he is just a puppet . The worst thing he could do is pick a woman and im fixing to get a lot of flak. Women have no business in politics. God calls the mentor run the country. The women run the home. They stepped out of their role in life and that is but everything is so mixed up. Theirg somebody blacken just because they are black, that is racism. Youre supposed to put a person in their because of their qualities and how good they could run the country. Host isnt she the one wanting to do away with cows . I cannot stand her either. I got your point, roxanne alabama. Commentse colors remind me there was a story in the Washington Post yesterday, about how the Biden Campaign is preparing to deal with sexist attacks on whoever they choose as the running mate. Those attitudes are out there, as the color showed the caller showed. That is something i campaign has to deal with. There are things women candidates have to deal with that candidates who are men do not have to deal with and people of color have to do with as well but that is something the Biden Campaign i think is preparing for. Look, i think we have come a long way in terms of representation of people who are not white men in politics. If you go back 50 or 60 years it is hard to find people who are not white men in power and i think you are seeing more diversity in both parties. The democrats are more of the party of women that the Republican Party is, generally speaking. Women are more democratic and men who are more republican but there plenty of men who vote democratic, and women who vote republican. And the democrats have a bigger tent in terms of being a multiracial coalition. There are people who feel the president ial ticket should represent that diversity. At the same time if your joe biden, you have to make sure whatever the demographic characteristics are of the person you choose, that the person is going to be helpful, a person that credibly could take over for president , if for some reason biden were elected and had to leave office or died in office, that person has to be prepared. I think people are cognizant of that, given the former Vice President s age. Host one viewer on twitter saying, talk about Susan Collins in maine. We take you now live to National Law Enforcement Museum Discussion on antibias programs for police officers. What is working and what needs improvement. When the National Law Enforcement memorial and Museum Opened in late 2018, we launched an exhibition, that focused on Law Enforcement in five communities from around the nation, and how their solutionbased programs connected lawenforcement with their community. Today that focus remains. Antibiaslore how Training Programs help Law Enforcement