State, but that does not make much of a difference in the polls. Currently in florida is the real politics average showed eight points. Astonishing on margin, bigger than Hillary Clintons was at this point. Number of close races in florida, back to the 2000 election that decided the 7 votes, after53 37 days of recounted, i always get wary of florida, i wins dont see him winning by eight points. Thats just me. Steve 2016 was a very close race between Hillary Clinton and donald trump. Why was it so competitive that, and what are lessons for both parties as we move to the fall . Marc the thing about politics is that it is all about turnout. 2016, slice the data from which is fascinating, its that when the absentee ballots and mailin ballots were counted election day morning, and the preelection day early in person votes were counted, Hillary Clinton was ahead by 250,000 votes. But she wanted up losing by 115,000. That means there was a 350 thousand or so surge in margin in Republican Voters that enabled trump to win. There was a huge turnout of his voters, especially in counties where we were surprised at the level of turnout, southwest florida, naples, a turnout of 90 . Nine out of 10 people shouted at nine out of 10 people showed up and voted in a disproportionate number were republican. Keep in mind also, it is florida come in 2016, President Trumps victoryory 1. 19 over Hillary Clinton was bigger than president obamas victory in the 2013 election, we had the governor race, the senate race and a recount with margin of half a percentage point or less. So we have had a history of close elections. We are sort of a transient state. We are still a state in. And ever since 2000, which was referenced earlier, some Political Parties have see this as being crucial, especially in the president ial race. If you look at the vagaries of the Electoral College, the democrats have california, the biggest with 55 Electoral College votes, and they will win new york, 29 Electoral College votes. Republicans are going to win texas, so if a republican doesnt win florida, he is essentially already so far behind, it is impossible to catch up. It is still possible, we site in 2016 because of this rustbelt state punch that trump was able wisconsin,winning pennsylvania, ohio, michigan. He didnt need to win florida. This year, they are doubtful about that in florida is a mustwednesday for republicans, not so much for democrats. Steve in terms of Political Capital and organization, with his Governor Ron Desantis bring to the Trump Campaign . Marc good question. He still has higher favorable numbers than unfavorable numbers. Now, he has taken shock and his favorability rating because of the way he handled coronavirus, oh i should say the way the National News media has part trade has portrayed florida and the coronavirus. I do have an issue with some of the coverage. As head of the state, Governor Desantis is in charge of picking the secretary of state, who oversees the election machinery. And if the election looks like it did in 2012, huge lines of people waiting to cast early votes, the governor at the time, charlie crist, nature to give people more time to do that. The008, pardon me, that was case. In 2012 when Governor Scott saw these huge lines, he didnt open polls longer for early voting. So a governor has leeway to expand the ability of the electorate to cast ballots in a sort of emergency situation. Election supervisors in florida have petition for more authority and more ability to conduct more absentee ballot and mailin voting in order to get ready for the fact that a lot of people are probably going to be staying at home and voting that way. And so far, Governor Desantis hasnt moved on that. That is one tangible and practical way that he is affecting the conducting of the election, or the orchestration of the election machinery prior to the election. Steve when we talk about the interstate for cora door corridor between tampa and orlando, that is really the swing part of the state. What other parts of the state are you looking at that could potentially turn to either donald trump or joe biden . Marc Pinellas County voted for 20 14 in in 2014, i think in 2016 it might have flipped trump. It is always pretty close. It is white but has more moderate sensibility. It is one of the counties to watch. Collier county in southwest florida, just to the north of us, those counties can have a really big turnout which, coupled with more Rural Counties in north florida, tend to deliver trump a margin of victory. I usually look at florida voting patterns not so much by region, but by race. We have more polarized voters based on race. Registered voters here are white, nonhispanic. 17 are hispanic and 13 are black and then there is a mishmash of others in the voter rolls. Turnout,is low latino that is going to be bad news for joe biden. He needs a good 60 vote out of them, and a high turnout. We are expecting a relatively high white turnout. White voters tend to relatively over perform relative to registration, but if you look nationally with older voters, donald trump is hemorrhaging their support. If that happens in florida, its lights out for the president. Im saying this in june. Anything we can happen. Moons andon is many many miles in the century and a lot in the future, and a lot is going to occur between now and then. Steve florida is now the president s home state. Will that make a difference . Marc it makes a difference to this degree. President trump knows he needs to win florida, and is acting like it. Just like a lot of large corporations, they break down the nation in region. Campaign seven southeast region. Trump is the same thing, but unlike any other president ial campaign, he sees florida as its own region. Georgia and mississippi and alabama are together, and florida is its own region. That gives you an idea of how important the state is to him and how much attention is paid to the state of the state. He initially announced his reelection bid here, he has been here frequently and he will be back. Steve lets talk about the democratic ticket. There is speculation representative demings is on the shortlist. , what impactected would that have on the state, potentially . Assuming it is messaged properly, and that might be a big assumption, but an africanamerican running mate for joe biden would probably do a bit to boost black voter turnout. Thatve pretty good data shows us that roughly 90 and 10 africanamerican that show up at the polls are going to vote democrat. The question is, how many are going to show up . What is the turn im going to be . And that is what is the turnout going to be . That is where elections are won and lost. If biden is able to hold white moderate support, especially older voters, and is able to boost black voter turnout, which Hillary Clinton was unable to do relative to barack obama, then it is looking like a biden win here. Want toe big ifs, just qualify that for everybody who might get upset. But forecasting a florida election, you flip a coin to see he was going to weed in florida and it lands on its edge. On speculation about the convention, is there chance florida will holst will host the Republican Convention . Good i think there is a chance. I from the northeast florida an called president representative from the northeast Florida Region called President Trump and said North Carolina was going to jerk him around, come to florida, check out jacksonville. Jacksonville is ideal for the president. Republican heavy county, also on the border of georgia. The downside for jacksonville is this. I dont think there is a covered arena that would be adequate for having a big kind of rally he wants. Remember, President Trump is a rally politician, a movement politician, he needs those big crowds. He hasnt had that. If you look at polling, that is one of the reasons he is not doing well. If jacksonville doesnt get it, it will be based more facilities at Hotel Availability than it is on political william or desire political whim or desire. If jacksonville had a covered stadium, i would be more sanguine on the chances. Right now, i would say there is a good shot, but i dont know how much of a good shot. Steve every politician and journalist says a is all about turnout. Says it is all about turnout. How is that going to work out with the pandemic in the fall . Marc democrats havent been able to register voters like they want. Obama was able to grow the voter rolls ahead of the actual day people cast ballots. A was able to count on replenished surge of fresh voters. Democrats tend to excel at registering new voters, in part because their base tends to come from people who are less frequent voters relative to republican speed they have been unable to get out there and register new people to sign up and turnout. That is a potential problem. How much, im not sure, because getting back to what i mentioned earlier, biden is doing rather well in the state. There is a possibility he might not need them. Steve can you expect a lot of campaigning between now and november . Marc i do, and im just basing this on gut, and past experience. Tickets here have been decided by a point or less. If someone wins by two points here, it would be an utter blow a lot. Polls that show the democrat winning by eight points in june, dont expect that in november. I could eat my words, but i am ready for very close race here. And that could take longer to declare that in the past, because we are looking at the probability of more vote i mail ballots being cast that could take more time to count. Steve we will check in with you often between now and november, uto joining marc cap us for miami, his work available on politico. Com. Thanks for joining us on cspan. From publicidents affairs, available now in paperback and an ebook. Biographies of every president organized by rankings by noted historians, from best to worst, and it features perspectives into the lives of our nations chief executives and leadership styles. Is that our website, andan. Org thepresident s, order your copy today were ever books and ebooks are sold wherever books and ebooks are sold. Fremont brought the Pacific Coast into the United States. At the beginning, the United States didnt have a Pacific Coast. Territory in oregon was disputed with britain and california belonged to mexico. Fremont encouraged the american settlement of oregon and took part in the american conquest of california, just in time for the gold rush. So he did play a real role in changing the map of the United States. His bookg host on Perfect Union how fremont helped conquer the west and sunday the civil war night it 8 00 eastern on cspans q and a. Jersey Governor Phil Murphy discussed his states responsys to the coronavirus pandemic and black lives matters protest, during an event hosted by political label. Governor murphy talked about the import o